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Early Start with Rahel Solomon

Oil Prices Soar Past $100 A Barrel As War Escalates; Amazon Cloud Services Disrupted By Iranian Drone Strikes. Aired 5:30-6a ET

Aired March 09, 2026 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[05:33:37]

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR: The war with Iran is causing oil prices to soar putting countries around the world on alert. Brent crude surging past $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine back in 2022. Here's where the price sits right now. And WTI, the U.S. oil benchmark, also hitting its highest level since 2022.

Well, for more I'm joined by Noureldeen Al-Hammoury, chief market strategist at Equiti Group. It's good to have you, sir.

Look, all prices surging past 100 bucks on the barrel, the biggest one-day spike in years. Warnings not least from the CEO of Qatar Energy that oil prices could hit $150 if this continues. Asian stock markets getting thumped this morning, which doesn't bode well for Monday's session on Wall Street.

What's your perspective?

NOURELDEEN ALHAMMOURY, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, EQUITI GROUP: Yeah, it was about less than a week when we both talked about the idea of just a two-week scenario, which we're entering now the second week and we're already at almost $120, although we did sort of retrace a little bit at the beginning of the European session back to $107. We're talking about Brent here.

[05:35:00]

Now the most concerning, at least for the time being, is the forward spread, which is now between today's Brent and the next contract is now at eight and a half dollars. This is a record we haven't seen -- we haven't seen before.

But it gives us at least a clear indication that it's not about production. It's not even about also -- it's not about production but it's about deliveries. Traders are scrambling to get the oil out of -- out of the Middle East and this is going to be the major -- the major issue now.

But I think if it continues now, which is the second scenario, over two weeks we'll be looking at at least $140-$150. ANDERSON: What have you seen as evidence that leading countries, you know, are intent on doing something about this? I've seen some moves, at least in principle, from G7. President Donald Trump describing surging oil prices as "a very small price to pay for global safety and peace." But there clearly are some significant concerns behind the scenes when energy prices, energy security, the global economic impact, you know, is really in play at this point.

How do you interpret Donald Trump and the U.S. stance here, especially in the context of rising fuel costs for consumers and the -- and that broader economic impact?

AL-HAMMOURY: The problem is, I mean, since the beginning of the administration it's hard to actually understand the policies that they've been doing, at least for the time being, today. It is geopolitics attacks on every American driver and businesses. That's from one side.

What's the achievement that we've seen? So far, we had a government shutdown. Last month we had over 92,000 jobs lost. We had also a higher unemployment rate. Inflation super core is at 3.3 percent. You had also the Supreme Court ruling the tariffs illegal. This will mean that you'll have refunds and higher -- also record high in debt -- a higher deficit now than anywhere before.

So I think it's just hard to say that this is just a small price. The question is for how long this is going to continue. And if we continue over four weeks or so I think that it's Iran is basically using the American consumer as a new -- as a new -- as a new pressure.

If the GCC -- which I think at some point there will be a very serious diplomatic movement from all over the GCC if not even all of the world to try to contain the damage. Because at this stage now you have -- when you look at the bond market, which is giving us a signal -- some sort of -- that we are in the early stages of a full -- a full-scale panic. The Dow Jones is down about 1,000 points and still it's not the U.S. session yet.

ANDERSON: Yeah.

AL-HAMMOURY: We'll have to wait and see what happens.

But it is hard to understand this administration, but at the same time we have to deal with it the way it is.

ANDERSON: I'm really interested in what your clients are both asking you as the global Equiti strategist and, indeed, what they are telling you about the pain threshold at this point for them and their investments and where you see investors sort of hedging their bets at this point.

AL-HAMMOURY: At this point the biggest -- the biggest hedge, at least of when we're talking about -- when we're talking about war and oil, you have the options contracts. Even traders, from what I saw at least during the Asian session, traders are pricing in much more than 150 bucks. They're pricing in about $200 and $220 at least for the next -- for the next -- or until April.

Now, what are they telling us? There's basically, you know, the panic mode or at least the fear that this escalation would not - would not basically stop here. At the same time, they're going to be very selective and most likely we will be seeing a lot of traders try to what we call it the "hit and run" trade, which is trying to make quick buck because of this -- because of this move.

At the same time, we hope at some point that a relief or at least any kind of de-escalation, even if a de-escalation comes as a statement from anyone in the administration. Because even with Donald Trump saying yesterday that he will see about the new -- the new leadership in Iran, that didn't actually help -- that didn't actually help much.

So despite the fact that also America's shale advantage means that they are maybe the least impacted economy, but this is only for the time being. This is for the short term, not for the long term.

So I think it's --

ANDERSON: Yeah.

AL-HAMMOURY: -- going to be very --

ANDERSON: And Noureldeen, what --

AL-HAMMOURY: -- interesting to see what happens in this session.

[05:40:00]

ANDERSON: And you're right to point out, you know, in every sort of, you know, chaotic situation there are those who are trading the volatility, of course, and there will be people looking for opportunities in this. And, you know, there will be clearly some money to made, not by the retail investor necessarily but by those who are professionally involved in this.

Last question to you. Given where you are based -- and it's good to have you from this region as we see the sort of -- you know, the impact of this U.S.-Israel war on Iran, you know, very keenly impacting this region where you and I are. What's the impact here on sort of local markets -- local investment decisions and the sort of -- again, the pain threshold for this region very specifically of the Gulf?

AL-HAMMOURY: I wouldn't say -- I wouldn't say there is -- there's a huge pain. The pain is basically the continuous -- the continuous attacks on the region. That's from one side.

From a revenue standpoint it is basically a shortfall, but at the same time it's not going to continue for a long time. They are still basically selling the oil. They're still selling LNG, but it's in storages.

But at the same time, I don't think so on the business side. You have seen and everybody's seen they're giving on social media that people are still feeling safe despite the fact that we're seeing attacks every day, alerts every day. But people are going into, like, under normal day-to-day life, except the fact maybe most of the people would prefer to be working remotely from home. So I think the pain would be just basically the continuous attack.

At the same time, at some point I believe that the GCC are definitely wise enough to try at some point to find a way out of it, whether if it's going to be deal with Iran, whether it's going to be a mutual deal with the U.S. at the same time. But this is -- I think it's going to be a short term pain but it's not going to be something that will affect, let's say, the books, if that's the right way to say it.

ANDERSON: Yeah.

All right, it's good to have you, Noureldeen, and stay safe there in Abu Dhabi.

AL-HAMMOURY: You too. Thank you.

ANDERSON: We are all living through this. You're right to suggest that when we -- when we're not, you know, seeking shelter as a result of these alerts life does go on. You know, resilience is a -- is a cliched term ofttimes but, I mean, it is a community here who --

AL-HAMMOURY: Of course.

ANDERSON: -- you know, by and large are just getting on with daily life.

It's good to have you, sir. Thank you.

All right, we are going to take a very short break. I'm going to leave you with these images out of Beirut. We know that there is a -- you know, a sustained Israeli offensive on its northern front as it's known and this is the fallout from that. Smoke once again over the skyline of the Lebanese capital.

Stay with us.

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[05:47:25]

ANDERSON: Amazon data centers in both the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were damaged by Iranian attacks in the past few days causing disruption to cloud services. Amazon says the facilities were hit by Iranian drones. Getting them back up and running isn't quick due to the extent of the damage. It has led to outages in services for some financial firms that use Amazon. It is the first time a major U.S. tech company's services have been disrupted by military action in this way.

And I want to bring in Mohammed Soliman. He's a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, well imbued in the sort of nexus of sort of this region of the Gulf and AI and advanced tech, and the sort of geotech sort of world that we live in as far as the international sort of order is concerned these days.

Mohammed, attacks on data centers can paralyze banks, of course, and government offices, and key industries. How real is this risk and what steps can governments and companies take to safeguard critical infrastructure from such disruptions?

MOHAMMED SOLIMAN, SENIOR FELLOW, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: Becky, thank you for the kind invitation.

Let me say this. You should -- we should think about data centers as the factory floor of the 21st century. It is very much similar to steel factories back in the second world war. This is the new infrastructure -- the new techno industrial infrastructure that is now being targeted in multiple conflicts.

You have seen what the Russians have been doing in Ukraine targeting data centers. You also have seen what Ukrainian forces have been doing against Russian data centers, specifically in the Ukrainian occupied part.

So now this sort of warfare comes to the Gulf. Why it comes to the Gulf? Because the Iranians understand why data centers and AI infrastructure are core to the UAE AI ambitions/post-oil economy and future, and by putting a target on those data centers the Iranians want to plant hesitation into building data centers in the Gulf.

I don't particularly believe that they have succeeded -- I don't -- for fundamental reasons. The fundamentals did not change. Who is going to be fronting $30 billion to $50 billion to build one gigawatt of compute? Who has the energy abundance to build and power those data centers?

[05:50:00]

On top of that, geography did not change, meaning the geography that makes the Gulf a big AI compute inference hub for Europe, for East Africa, for South Asian -- South Asian markets is still the same. This is why I don't believe that the Iranians have succeeded in this.

ANDERSON: And yet, you do see this as a new form of geopolitical warfare as it were.

How should countries factor this into their AI policies?

SOLIMAN: It poses a lot of questions.

One, the question of air defense systems. Of course, in the case of Iran and the Gulf this is a very unique situation. It's a very unique situation.

But are we going to go towards intel in Israel model? Intel has a factory in Israel that has multiple layers of air defense systems, or this is basically going to be the new norms for data centers in the Gulf, specifically as we see gigawatts of compute being brought online in United Arab Emirates, in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, or the argument is it is a civilian infrastructure and it's going to be defended like the rest of the civilian infrastructure inside the country.

Those are two different models and have their own rationales and has its own pros and cons.

ANDERSON: Hmm.

As you're speaking, I just want our viewers to know what we're looking at. That was some video from the Saudi Ministry of Defense just exposing their -- the extent to which these interceptions are happening around this region. You just saw a Shahed drone there being shot out of the sky by the -- by the Saudis.

These attacks -- you know, and we've been discussing -- clearly exposing the vulnerabilities of the sector. I just want to close with this. I wonder how regional leaders -- and you've said the UAE, Saudi -- I mean, Qatar has an aggressive AI strategy now.

How do these regional leaders balance these ambitious AI developments, which as you rightly say are not going to stop just because there is some vulnerability here at this point. But how do they balance the sort of -- you know, the progress with these security risks? You've talked about, you know, how air defenses might ensure that they -- you know, they try and decrease the vulnerabilities. Is there anything else that you see as heightened as far as the security risk at this point?

SOLIMAN: A few things, and I think this is a very excellent question.

One, the interception rate of missiles and drones is extremely impressive across the Gulf -- 94 percent to 86 percent. This is basically the average that we have seen from United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. This is impressive and shows confidence in the way that those Gulf Arab militaries are capable of defending their homelands. That's number one.

Number two, the question of dispersing AI infrastructure and making sure that they're not concentrated. They're going to be something to be -- to be discussed.

Three -- and like I said, the question of air defense systems. It is a civilian infrastructure or are we going to add a different model of air defense system for those AI infrastructure? And given the amount of capital -- the amount of capital, the amount of energy that's going into those AI ambitions.

But the message is there's no slowing on AI ambitions in the Gulf. There's no slowing down in building AI infrastructure in the Gulf. The fundamentals are the same and those Gulf leaders made a very important bet on their 21st century economies, and that means that they have to invest in AI infrastructure because this is core to their DNA in this century.

ANDERSON: This is as described here in the region -- and you and I have talked about it before. This is a longstanding policy as we -- perhaps we should described it as navigate a new Middle East. Look, I mean, the de-escalation over the past decade that you and I

have heard discussed -- the importance of de-escalating conflict in this region is all about how this region moves into its next phase and if the Gulf countries can be successful, how that can provide a sort of domino effect across this wider region of the Middle East as we move into what will be a sort of, you know, post-oil era for these Gulf nations but also a better era -- a better era for the people of the Middle East going forward looking beyond conflict.

Look, I mean, if they -- you know, many will argue that the escalation now is to a degree to ensure that this is a safer, more peaceful region going forward. It's tough to, you know, live through that, of course, for many people but it's an important point.

[05:55:00]

And Mohammed, always good to have you. Thank you very much indeed for joining us.

And thank you folks for joining Rahel and myself. I'm Becky Anderson. "CNN THIS MORNING" is next.

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