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Early Start with Rahel Solomon

War With Iran; Russia-Ukraine War. Aired 4:30-5a ET

Aired March 30, 2026 - 04:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[04:30:08]

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back. I'm Becky Anderson live from our Middle East programming headquarters here in Abu Dhabi.

President Trump claims that Iran has agreed to most of the 15 point list of US demands to end the war. One key provision in that plan is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US also wants Iran to commit to no nuclear weapons, to hand over highly-enriched uranium and to set limits on its defense capabilities.

Now, Tehran has expressed skepticism of the White House's demands and accuses the US of planning a secret ground invasion while it makes overtures at diplomacy. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency says the closure of the Strait is the biggest oil shock in history. It is causing oil prices to soar and disrupting stock markets around the world. CNN's Eleni Giokos joining me now from Dubai.

We are seeing a broad sell off for Asian stocks in their Monday session, clearly driven by a further rise in the oil price, Eleni. We are looking at a record monthly rise for oil in March, some 60 percent. How damaging is this now and going forward for Asian economies?

ELENI GIOKOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, it's so interesting because JP Morgan came out with a report saying that Asian markets will always feel at first because usually any shipment from the Strait of Hormuz takes about 10 to 20 days to reach Asian markets. The next economies that are going to feel the supply disruption, economies in Africa, Kenya already seeing some of that stress, then it's going to be Europe, then the United States.

So we still haven't felt the full effect of what the International Energy Agency says is the largest supply disruption globally in the history of markets. I mean, we're talking about an oil crisis that is worse than what we saw in the 1970s. US market futures right now pointing upwards. You've got to remember the S&P was down about 1.7 percent on Friday.

And then, we also had big news over the weekend, the Houthis entering the war. There's big concern about whether we'll see disruptions in the Red Sea. That forcing the oil price to go much higher as well as, you know, market participants coming to terms with the reality that we're facing at this juncture. I also want to just show you this graph because I was looking at year to date performance of Brent Crude and it's really indicative of where we stand right now. Brent Crude is up around 78 percent since the beginning of the year. In three months, it has risen, Becky, by 78 percent. And this is why it's a major concern.

The OECD was saying that inflation for G20 countries is going to hit 4 percent. For the United States, it's going to hit 4.2 percent. Central banks around the world are trying to ascertain what kind of inflationary environment they're going to be dealing with at a time where, you know, there was hope we're going to see a drop interest rates.

We're now looking at a completely different scenario. And again, I keep saying this, the duration of this war, how long it will last depends on the global pain that everyone will experience.

ANDERSON: Eleni, thank you. Eleni is in Dubai monitoring those markets.

My next guest in an opinion guest essay in the New York Times writes in part that Iran's leaders' logic is "cold but calculated; make this war so costly for everyone that no one wants to start another." Iran has learned how easy and comparatively cheap it is to hold the global economy hostage.

Dina Esfandiary is the Middle East Geo-Economics Lead at Bloomberg Economics. Delighted that she's joined me now today from Geneva. Good to have you on again. I wonder, do you believe there's been a fundamental misunderstanding about the magnitude of the shock of this conflict for the global economy?

DINA ESFANDIARY, MIDDLE EAST GEO-ECONOMICS LEAD, BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS: I think there has been, Becky. Yes. I think everybody was expecting a very quick conflict, perhaps a Venezuela style conflict. And that's absolutely not what we've ended up with.

We've ended up with a country, Iran, that fears for its survival. And because its survival is at stake, it's throwing absolutely everything it has at this war, including the straits, including regional energy infrastructure. And it's also a country that stands to gain from this war being dragged out. So it's hunkering down and dragging it out, so that it can impose the highest possible cost on the rest of the global economy.

ANDERSON: Which at present it is doing, certainly, as we just have to look at these Asian markets, as Eleni and I have just been discussing. At the beginning of a week when, you know, we've seen a bit of a playbook from the Trump administration sort of pumping these markets, you know, ahead of the opening of the trading week.

[04:35:03]

Well, certainly some effort on the part of Donald Trump to provide some optimism about what might happen this week, but that certainly hasn't helped these markets out. This morning we are seeing a higher oil price as well. So as we enter this second month, Dina, what's your assessment both from an Iranian perspective and, indeed, about options that the US and Israel have at this point?

ESFANDIARY: Basically, I don't think the options look good for anyone. Excuse me, from Iran's perspective, like I said, it wants to drag this conflict out. It's enduring a pretty heavy cost, the bombing of Iranian infrastructure, residential areas, hospitals, universities, et cetera. It's very intensive and I think the Iranian population is growing increasingly tired of it.

But in order for the Islamic Republic, for the leadership to survive, it has to drag it out and it has to impose this cost. Now, what does this mean for the United States and Israel? Well, they have a few options. They can either give up and walk away, which I think is unlikely from the Trump administration, or they too can double down, escalate in order to de escalate.

But the problem is I don't think the Iranians are going to bite. If Israel and the United States escalate, then it's likely that Iran will do the same because it still has options in terms of how it can escalate, how it can -- how intensely it can hit targets in the region, and how much more chaos it can wreck.

ANDERSON: Donald Trump seems to suggest that he believes he has the right people to negotiate at this point after what he describes as regime change, by which he has said there has been a change in those running this regime. And therefore, he says, we have now seen regime change.

Do you -- and by the way, he described those that he says he's negotiating with or there are talks going on with as reasonable. Do you believe the US has found a series or a character that they can negotiate with in Tehran? And if so, where do you see these talks suggested by Pakistan is coming together at some point this week going?

ESFANDIARY: I find it hard to believe that talks are happening and that they are happening with the intention to end this war. Like I said, for Iran, there is little desire right now to end it because it feels like it still has room to impose a higher cost on the global economy. For the United States, I think the Trump administration does want to get out of this war.

And so, I do think that they are trying to make overtures to the Iranians. But you've outlined the main problem, who would be their main interlocutor? Everybody that steps up to conduct talks or to lead is taken out then by the United States and Israel. So it's a high cost thing for the Iranians to do, even though it might mean that they would be able to end this conflict.

It just seems like, I think it's too early for negotiations to lead to anything.

ANDERSON: Meantime, let's remind ourselves the Iranian economy has been on its knees. You know, the protests that we saw in December and in January to a large degree were -- in protest to and demonstration about just how bad things are. The Iranian regime may feel that it wants to go on. It faces an existential threat. But going on and remaining intact leaves the issue that is the Iranian economy and how long that can go on.

It is already calling for reparations, for example. What does the economic sort of pillar of any deal look like from the Iranian perspective? What say, sort off ramp as far as sort of sanctions are concerned? And what is realistic, do you believe, to the US, Israel and others who are now deeply involved in trying to find an end to this?

ESFANDIARY: I think the economic pillar, as you call it, is absolutely vital here. As you pointed out, the Iranian economics situation is dire. It has been dire for a while and it's getting progressively worse. And the Iranian government doesn't have the tools to deal with it anymore. There is not much that they can do internally that would improve the situation without worsening it first, which means they need something from this war.

[04:40:05]

This is where their request for reparations has come in. I think reparations is a bit of a stretch. It's unlikely that the Trump administration and Israel would even consider it. What I do think is possible is that the Trump administration might consider further sanctions relief, because we have to remember that he has given Iran some sanctions relief right now, oddly, in order to make up for the fact that oil prices have gone up so high.

So we could imagine a scenario in which during negotiations, Trump agrees to more sanctions relief for Iran. And this would enable the Iranian government to turn internally and say, look, I have something as a result of all the pain that we've endured.

ANDERSON: It's fascinating, isn't it? It is Monday, beginning of the second month of this war. Dina, you provided us some analysis and insight throughout this past month and before that, of course, for which I really appreciate it.

Thank you very much indeed, Dina Esfandiary, with us this morning. And we will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[04:45:50]

BRIAN ABEL, CNN ANCHOR: The Israeli military is suspending a reserve battalion that detained a CNN crew in the West Bank just 48 hours after our report of the incident first aired. The military says the group, which consists of hundreds of reservists, would be immediately withdrawn from the region and reassigned to receive training until further notice.

They added that additional steps will be taken against individual soldiers involved. At the time of the incident, CNN was covering a new wave of settler violence in the West Bank. There have been attacks on Palestinians, their homes and the establishment of at least four new illegal outposts within just the past week.

Ukraine is stepping up attacks on Russian oil facilities. Kyiv's military says it struck a major oil refinery northeast of Moscow over the weekend. And this comes as Russia continues its spring offensive. CNN's Ben Hunte has more.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BEN HUNTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Ukraine's port city, Odesa, struck again by Russian drones. It's a frequent target of Russian attacks because of its shipping lanes and energy infrastructure. And some residents say they know all too well the dangers flying overhead.

OLENA KUDRIASHOVA, ODESA RESIDENT (through translation): When you're scared and Shahed drones are flying, you start to believe in anything and everything. Last night I had the thought that God had blessed us. On the right, left, front, back windows and doors were smashed. Our window survived. We're so happy we made it through the night.

HUNTE: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia has launched more than 3,000 attack drones against his country in the past week. Many of them, Iranian made Shahed drones, which are some of the same drones Iran is using against Gulf nations.

And Zelenskyy is trying to capitalize on what Ukraine has learned on the battlefield, making deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE to share its expertise on low cost interceptors and other drone defenses.

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT (through translation): We're talking about a 10-year partnership. We have already signed the agreement with Saudi Arabia and we have just signed a similar 10-year agreement with Qatar. We will also sign a 10-year agreement with the UAE.

HUNTE: The agreements come at a critical time for Ukraine, which is facing a spring offensive from Russia as fuel prices skyrocket and Russian oil flows more freely on the market after the US eased some sanctions on it. It's been a windfall for Russia, but it's also made Russia's energy sector a target.

Ukraine hitting several Russian refineries and oil export terminals in the past week as part of a stepped up campaign against Moscow's revenue stream. Ukraine is also accusing Russia of sharing intelligence with Iran, including satellite images of US assets in the region.

CNN has asked the Kremlin for comment. It's a further blurring of the lines of two separate wars with overlapping interests and alliances. Ben Hunte, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ABEL: Ben, thank you. After the break, we will bring you this week's US weather forecast. And it looks like some of the country will be cooling off. Stay with us.

[04:49:08]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ABEL: Across the United States, weather conditions are shifting after an unusually warm start to the spring season. CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar has this week's forecast.

ALLISON CHINCHAR, CNN METEOROLOGIST: After more record breaking temperatures across the Southwest this weekend, we're finally going to start to see a pattern change begin to take place as we head into the week. Now, we notice at first across the northern tier of the country, a lot more of that cooler air begins to spread back down on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it eventually will take over much of the country, dropping those temperatures back to much closer to where they should be this time of year.

It's also going to usher in several different systems. So this first one here early Monday will continue to slide east as we make our way through the rest of the day and into Tuesday. This is going to bring some rain and much needed snow to the West.

It's not nearly enough of what they need for snowpack, but at this point we'll take everything we can get. By late Tuesday, we start to see more of this setup across the eastern portion of the country impacting areas of the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. The unfortunate problem is that front essentially stalls over many of the same states over a period of several days.

And this means a lot of these areas are going to accumulate some pretty significant amounts of rain over, widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches. But it's not out of the question for some spots to pick up 4 or even 5 inches total by the time we get to the end of this upcoming week. That means we could in turn have some flooding concerns.

Now, it's going to impact several different areas, but Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all have the potential for some excessive rainfall. Tuesday the main focus is really going to be across the Great Lakes region. Wednesday we have a portion of the Midwest and also into the Southern Plains.

[04:55:09]

That's going to shift eastward as we head into Thursday, going back once again across areas of the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region.

ABEL: Allison, thank you. The Men's Final Four is set as UConn and Michigan join Arizona and Illinois in the battle for the national title.

Michigan steamrolled Tennessee midway through the first half. The Wolverines caught fire, scoring 21 unanswered points. The final score there, 95-62, Michigan. Meanwhile, number two, UConn, stunned the top seed Duke right there. The Huskies punch their ticket to the final four with a last second long three pointer.

This will be UConn's third Final Four in four years. UConn will face Illinois. Michigan will face Arizona Saturday Indianapolis.

Thank you all so much for joining us. I'm Brian Abel. Becky Anderson and I will be back with another hour of EARLY STARTS after a quick break.

[05:00:00]