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Early Start with Rahel Solomon
More U.S. Troops Arrive In The Middle East Amid Iran Conflict; Prosecutors Eye Prediction Markets For Possible Insider Trading; CNN Speaks With Fidel Castro's Grandson Amid Energy Crisis. Aired 5:30-6a ET
Aired March 31, 2026 - 05:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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[05:33:00]
BRIAN ABEL, CNN ANCHOR: As we continue to follow the latest in the conflict with Iran, I want to bring in Malcolm Nance, a retired U.S. naval intelligence officer and a national security expert. Malcolm, thank you for being with us.
You write in your Substack that --
MALCOLM NANCE, U.S. NAVAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER (RET.), NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERT: Good morning.
ABEL: -- an invasion of Iran by ground forces is imminent. Before we get into what that would look like or maybe the objectives of any mission like that would be, I'd first like you to lay out for us what's leading you to your assessment that U.S. troops on the ground will happen.
NANCE: Even though the war looks like it's happening in a massive aerial campaign we've noticed just over the last two weeks -- about two weeks ago -- a series of flights started to move from the United States, which started to spell out that there was a much bigger picture going on.
We started seeing flights that were at the main bases of the 1st and 2nd Ranger regiments. Large numbers of aircraft -- enough to move the entire battalion. Special operations command. Tampa, Florida's special operations headquarters, SEAL Team Six's headquarters. And then an associated U.S. Air Force unit that is only used to take contingency flights to repair damaged runways.
This massive armada moved quietly to an air base in Israel -- an air base in Israel and an air base in Jordan. The numbers that they are having there are far bigger than anything you would need for Kharg Island.
I was in the Navy. I served in -- off Kharg Island and had naval battles with the Iranians in the 1980s and hit mines. Let me tell you, Kharg, in the southern Strait of Hormuz, Islands are a task in themselves. The Marines could handle that. But that, combined with the 82nd Airborne, we are looking at something much, much bigger than taking those islands.
[05:35:00]
ABEL: OK. You say that they quietly moved those troops but apparently not quietly enough for those with a keen eye like yours.
Let's lean into that significant military experience of yours a little bit more. What would be the objectives in Iran and where? And how could these missions be carried out because some of what you described in your Substack sounds like something out of a Jack Ryan or John Clark novel?
NANCE: Yeah, and it's really Tom Clancy-ish in its conceptualization.
My problem with this is -- you know, as someone who has fought in that region and lived in that region almost 40 years and speak the languages, it's that this appears to be haphazard. This appears to be something that was just stacked on at the least minute.
For example, bringing the Ready Alert Brigade to the 82nd Airborne, which is a 1,000 troops -- bringing their headquarters element of the division and then suggesting that 2,000 more airborne are coming leads me to believe that they are probably planning a combat jump into Iran itself, whether to take one of, you know, three targets: The Isfahan nuclear research center, the Natanz nuclear research center, or the Yazd ballistic missile complex. That's this underground city of ballistic missiles that's in a mountain that is still to this day firing missiles even though the Americans and the Israelis have pummeled it day and night.
This is a massive operation. I mean, one where they'll have to seize a runway or make a runway or use a highway as a runway. And after paradropping troops and then get logistics supply down and then hopefully, airlift them out.
The New York Times has indicated, and other papers, that it might be related to getting Iranian nuclear materials. Well, that material is buried under thousands of tons of stone, which means you're going to have to bring in excavators, backhoes, trucks. You're going to have to hijack them or bring them in.
This is massive and the numbers that are being shown only indicate that it's going to happen. It's a question of whether it happens right now or whether the president takes an absolute off-ramp from this war. But there's no in between.
ABEL: Malcolm, we just have a few moments left. Talk to us about the risk involved with any ground operation. You told us that the timing is still questionable, but is there anything that could stop it? What outcomes, expected or not, could happen and what kind of casualties could we be talking about there?
NANCE: You know, my assessment is that we're going to do two or all three of these missions.
Seizing the islands in the Strait of Hormuz, which is the job of the U.S. Marines. That can have extensive casualties. I mean, it may seem simple at the beginning but as the enemy gets their acts together and starts attacking you, you're going to take casualties sitting in a flat land.
The same thing with Kharg Island. It's a very small place. I've been off Kharg Island. I've watched the Iraqis bomb it. It's a very small, flat area which is 60 percent refinery and oil facilities. It could be mined.
ABEL: It looks like we just lost Malcolm there, but we do appreciate his expertise. Malcolm Nance with that analysis.
We'll be right back here with our business breakout now.
Here is where the U.S. futures stand ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street. We do have the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 all starting the day up.
Let's check some of today's business headlines now.
President Trump's claim that talks with Iran are going well isn't doing much to calm volatile oil markets. The global benchmark Brent crude is still trading well over $100 a barrel. And the national average for a gallon of regular unleaded gas in the U.S. is up to $4.02 a gallon, according to AAA.
The International Monetary Fund is sounding the alarm over the war in Iran and its impact on the global economy. Economists say that right now all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth. They say people in some low-income countries are already at risk of going hungry because of the conflict and much depends on how the war plays out.
Air Canada says its CEO will retire this year after being criticized for his response to this month's deadly crash at New York's LaGuardia Airport. Michael Rousseau issued a message of condolence in English only. Canada's prime minister says it showed a lack of compassion and judgment. He says the new CEO must be bilingual given that French and English are Canada's official languages.
The U.S. Justice Department is taking a closer look at prediction markets to see whether they violate insider trading laws. Platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi have exploded in popularity in the past year and have allowed some users to reap massive profits on real world events.
[05:40:00]
CNN's Kara Scannell has this exclusive report.
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KARA SCANNELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Sources tell CNN that federal prosecutors in Manhattan are exploring whether certain trades in the prediction markets have violated U.S. laws, including insider trading.
Sources say that prosecutors with the U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan recently met with members of Polymarket. That's one of the leading platforms that has prediction markets. The meeting was conducted by the chiefs of the securities, fraud, and commodities fraud unit and involved those officials with Polymarket that were there to discuss the U.S. laws and how they apply to this new space.
This comes just a few weeks after the U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton was speaking at an industry event where he said he expected there to be criminal prosecutions of trades in this space.
And sources say that one of the trades that prosecutors are examining is a trade that was timed around the ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.
A spokesman for the U.S. attorney's office told me, "With regard to so-called 'prediction markets,' our office has made clear that various laws, including insider trading laws, anti-money laundering laws, laws prohibiting manipulation, and various anti-fraud laws are applicable to a wide range of observed activity."
A spokesperson from Polymarket told us that "Polymarket sets, maintains, and enforces the highest standards of market integrity. We also proactively work with regulators and law enforcement to reinforce those standards."
This is coming in during a time of explosive growth in the industry with big bets being made on geopolitical events and other things, including the outcome of "THE BACHELOR" television series. It's caught the attention of lawmakers. There's been a bipartisan bill introduced to try to make the rules of the road clear. The industry themselves are also taking steps to try to shore up the confidence in their marketplace.
Last week, Polymarket announced that insider trading was banned on its platform and discussed some surveillance steps that it is taking.
Kalshi, another prediction market that has a partnership with CNN where CNN uses its data, also has announced several specific areas where they are banning particular types of trade by certain actors in the same industry.
It's all coming as there is so much attention in this space, there's so much growth in the industry, and it remains to be seen how these investigations will turn out.
Kara Scannell, CNN, New York.
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ABEL: Ahead, an exclusive interview with a new generation of the Castro family. What the grandson of Fidel Castro has to say about Cuba's government, the energy crisis, and why he's a sign of the changing times.
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[05:47:00] ABEL: Welcome back. I'm Brian Abel. Here are some stories we are watching today.
The latest wave of Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 14 people, including three children and two mothers. Earlier in Tehran, the Iranian Red Crescent began clearing rubble from a building with its walls blown out. The humanitarian group says the impact site was in a residential area. State media has also reported several explosions and power outages across the capital today.
TSA officers have started to receive their first paycheck since the start of the partial U.S. government shutdown. Union leaders say workers have received both missed paychecks, but they haven't yet received the remainder of a partial paycheck from the end of February. DHS is using funds from President Trump's massive infrastructure spending bill passed last year to cut the checks.
Several people who were at the U.S. Capitol on January 6 are suing the police for physical and emotional injuries they say were inflicted on them during the insurrection. The class action lawsuit was filed in a federal court in Florida with the suit seeking over $18 million in damages.
Desperately needed oil is arriving in Cuba. A Russian-flagged tanker carrying nearly 730,000 barrels of oil reached the country's waters after President Trump allowed it to break a U.S. fuel blockade. Experts say that may only offer limited economic and humanitarian relief as Cuba struggles with a deepening energy crisis.
The White House press secretary spoke about the tanker on Monday.
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KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: This is not a policy change. There has not been a formal change in sanction policy. As the president said last night, we allowed this ship to reach Cuba in order to provide humanitarian needs to the Cuban people, and these decisions are being made on a case-by-case basis.
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ABEL: Among the Cubans now dealing with frequent blackouts is the grandson of former leader Fidel Castro. Nightclub owner Sandro Castro is a critic of the current government. He sat down with CNN's Patrick Oppmann for an exclusive interview.
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PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): In this social media satire video, Donald Trump arrives in Cuba to buy the island. While this Trump is a fake, he's dealing with a real member of the Castro family. Fidel Castro's grandson, Sandro Castro, an influencer and nightclub impresario who says he has no interest in politics.
The very public face of an otherwise still mysterious family that has held power in Cuba for nearly seven decades.
At an interview in his apartment in Havana, Sandro Castro says he is a sign of the changing times on the communist-run island.
OPPMANN: And what would your grandfather, Fidel Castro, say that you're more capitalist than communist?
SANDRO CASTRO, GRANDSON OF FIDEL CASTRO, SOCIAL MEDIA INFLUENCER: (Speaking foreign language).
TEXT: My grandfather was a person who had his principles like everyone else. But he also respected other's opinions. That's my way of thinking.
[05:50:00]
OPPMANN: But all the capitalists had to leave Cuba.
CASTRO: (Speaking foreign language).
TEXT: There are many people in Cuba that think in a capitalistic way. There are many people here who want to have capitalism with sovereignty.
OPPMANN (voiceover): When we arrived for the interview the neighborhood Castro lives in is in a blackout, a near constant condition these days with the U.S. oil blockade and power plants breaking down. Sandro Castro's apartment is lit by an electric generator. But from his balcony the surrounding houses are in near total darkness.
He shows me his one-bedroom bachelor pad and how he lacks paint for the wall. How his fridge is nearly empty except for the Cuban beer he's always drinking. And I point out that the appliance is a foreign brand that most Cubans could never hope to afford.
OPPMANN: (Speaking foreign language).
OPPMANN (voiceover): His famous last name, Sandro Castro wants people to know, doesn't come with any special treatment in a Cuba on the edge of economic collapse.
CASTRO: (Speaking foreign language).
TEXT: We have to fight, as we say in Cuba. It's tough -- so tough.
OPPMANN: Even for a Castro. (Speaking foreign language).
CASTRO: (Speaking foreign language).
TEXT: Because you suffer through thousands of problems. In a day, there might not be electricity, no water. Goods don't arrive. It's so hard -- really hard.
OPPMANN: But being a Castro must help you.
CASTRO: (Speaking foreign language).
TEXT: My name is my name. I am proud of my name logically, but I don't see this help you are talking about. I am one more citizen.
OPPMANN (voiceover): Cuba faces unprecedented U.S. pressure to open politically and economically.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban American, has been reaching out to Cuban officials, including members of the Castro family. In one of his videos, Sandro Castro pretends to receive a call from Rubio who he then hangs up on.
Rubio has said Cuba needs new leadership and that could include Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel stepping down despite Fidel and Raul Castro's support for Diaz-Canel over many years, Sandro Castro says he is no fan.
OPPMANN: Do you think President Diaz-Canel is doing a good job?
CASTRO: (Speaking foreign language).
TEXT: I would not say he is doing a good job. For me he is not doing a good job. There are a lot of things he should have been doing for a while now and today that is hurting our lives.
OPPMANN (voiceover): Cuba's leaders reject attempts to blame them for the crisis, and Sandro Castro says officials have questioned him about his often surreal and critical postings. As well, Cuban exiles regularly attack him online, he says.
OPPMANN: Why do you think there are people, though, that hate the Castro family so much?
CASTRO: (Speaking foreign language).
TEXT: It's complicated. Many Cubans would have like to have been capitalist. I think the majority of Cubans want to be capitalist, not communist. That has created differences -- a hatred which is not productive.
OPPMANN (voiceover): Sandro Castro says he supports Trump's calls to open the economy, if not his threats against the island. At the end of his video he takes a U.S. leader on a tour of Havana. Hope from at least one member of the Castro family that a historic deal with the U.S. and opening on the island are possible.
Patrick Oppmann, CNN, Havana.
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ABEL: Ahead, a first look at the plans for Donald Trump's presidential library. We'll show the latest digital renderings of the massive skyscraper said to be coming soon to Miami's waterfront.
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[05:58:00]
ABEL: We are getting a look at what the proposed Donald J. Trump Presidential Library may end up looking like. Members of the Trump family have been circulating this rendering, and it shows a towering glass skyscraper with a gilded gold entrance in downtown Miami. And Trump's name would be prominently displayed under the red, white, and blue spire.
The building would feature a massive atrium -- you see it here -- seemingly large enough to hold Air Force One, a large golden statue of the president, and a big ballroom. It will also include a replica of the Oval Office with all of Trumps' recently added gold trimming.
The library's foundation hopes to raise nearly a billion dollars for the project.
It is official. Celine Dion will make her long-awaited return to the concert stage later this year and now you know where. The Eiffel Tower was part of the splashy reveal in a video posted online. The French Canadian singer confirmed she has 10 shows coming up in September. This follows her showstopping cameo at the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024. Dion had previously been forced to halt performing live due to struggles with stiff person syndrome, an incurable autoimmune disorder. I know so many are looking forward to that.
The game is still three years away, but the celebrations are already underway. The NFL announcing Monday that Las Vegas will host Super Bowl LXIII in 2029. Allegiant Stadium, where the Raiders play also hosted the championship game back in 2024. Other events on the agenda include the NFL Honors and the Super Bowl Experience.
Commissioner Roger Goodell says Las Vegas is one of the country's greatest sports and entertainment destinations and has proved it's capable of delivering energy and hospitality.
[06:00:00]
It seems some criminals have quite the sweet tooth. Thieves in Europe made off with a truck full of KitKat candy bars. The truck was on its way from Italy to Poland and was carrying, get this, 12 tons of the chocolate-covered wafers. Nestle says over 400,000 KitKats were stolen. A spokesperson says they applaud the thieves' taste but would like their chocolate back.
Thank you for joining us here on EARLY START. I'm Brian Abel in Washington turning it over to the very capable hands of Erica Hill. "CNN THIS MORNING" starts right now.
