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Early Start with Rahel Solomon

U.S. And Iran Prepare For Talks Amid Hormuz Confusion; Hungarians To Vote In Parliament Election This Weekend. Aired 4:30-5a ET

Aired April 10, 2026 - 04:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[04:32:45]

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back. I'm Becky Anderson live from our Middle East programming headquarters. It's just after half-past midday here in Abu Dhabi in the Gulf.

The tentative ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran isn't doing much to stop the fighting in Lebanon. Hezbollah now claiming fresh attacks on Israeli soldiers. And the situation clouding peace talks between the U.S. and Iran which are set to begin on Saturday in Pakistan. Iran wants Lebanon covered by the truce, Israel does not.

And there's also the issue of ships passing once again through the Strait of Hormuz safely. Iran has promised to open the vital waterway. But industry executives say that few ships have actually crossed. And you're seeing a live image here of what is going on there in the Strait. And the head of Abu Dhabi's state-owned oil company says that the Strait is closed.

Well, I want to bring in Tom Sharpe, a retired commander with the British Royal Navy and a senior advisor at Qorvis, which is a global advisory and strategic comms firm. Good to have you Tom. You and I have been speaking over the past sort of five weeks. It's been interesting to watch the development of action in the Strait of Hormuz or the lack thereof as it were. There are hundreds of vessels still waiting to use or transit the Strait but not doing so, why?

TOM SHARPE, RETIRED U.K. ROYAL NAVY COMMANDER: I think everyone's in a bit of a sort of stare-off at the moment. I mean since the 1st of March when the Strait was really closed, traffic levels have not have not changed. They've been at about six to seven percent of normal I -- you know, marginal. The odd ones being let through perhaps the odd one snuck through. But really those levels have not changed.

And then the ceasefire came along and we look for a reaction and actually it got less for 24 hours and now it's back up to six or seven a day with Iran saying we'll let you through but and -- nobody quite believes that the fragility of the ceasefire is such that no one quite believes it. And then the practicalities of getting through we're hearing stories about ships approaching, they think they're clear and then they get turned away at the last minute under threats of violence. So there's a procedural problem in, you know, not to mention that the whole sort of legal issues whether or not Iran is allowed to do.

[04:35:15]

ANDERSON: This is a two-week ceasefire. Talks start Saturday on what a deal might look like. What's your assessment on the structure of any deal at this point given what we're hearing from on the one hand the Iranians and on the other the U.S. administration and very specifically Donald Trump himself?

SHARPE: If you take the 10-point plan, Iran's 10-point plan and the U.S. is 15-point plan at face value, then they are basically incompatible in my view that there's overlap in areas. But the 10- point plan that Iran has proposed looks very much like what they were suggesting beforehand that was deemed completely unacceptable. So the variable here as it has been throughout is what is the U.S., what is the U.S. end state in this? What today was specifically President Trump? What does he consider to be success in this case?

And we know he's getting a little bit impatient with it all. I think he thought it was going to be much cleaner and quicker than this. And that impatience when you're up against an adversary you has unlimited patience there were -- as someone said to me yesterday, we're in a shin-kicking contest here and one side has unlimited capacity to have patience here. The other one wants to stop and leave.

And when that happens you could end up with some very strange solutions and I think the terror on toll if that is allowed to normalize in any way shape or form perhaps part of the reason why shipping companies are not buying into it because even they recognize that this is a very weird normality that it's developing a very dangerous one. But if the terror I'm told take shape at all, then we are into a new maritime (inaudible) a new maritime world order now.

ANDERSON: Donald Trump himself has floated the idea of a joint venture in the Strait of Hormuz with Iran. So I wonder what you believe that might look like or what he means by that. And I also want to quote a line from a post a week or so ago from the company that you represent, "Hormuz disruption isn't just a supply shock, it's a system reset. The E.U. braces for long-term energy strain, market shift to scenario trading and U.S.-Venezuela ties are evolving." Just explain the sort of thesis of that post if you will.

SHARPE: Well, it shows -- it goes to show how so global and how linked all of this is. And this is where the accusations or the idea of playing 40 chess coming in the whole one is a play against this one and this is all about oil. And that probably there's some truth in that. But if Iran and America go into a joint venture to somehow profiteer from the Strait of Hormuz, I mean, it's an it's an international Strait. So whilst the U-bend traffic separation scheme that is now allegedly mine sits in Omani territorial waters, ironically, it's not actually in Iranian waters. It's an Omani.

But it's an international Strait. And there are rules and regulations or at least that were determining what freedom navigation. And freedom navigation is really linked is the thing that pieces all of this together. It's the thing that makes the globe go round. The -- our economies, our oil, our energy, it's all connected by these choke points. And the ability to pass through them unhindered is part of that deal.

Now, you can look at Panama and get confused. But they are man-made canals with a specific that are owned by those countries and it have been the subject of complex or two. Hormuz is a natural waterway and in accordance with what used to be the normal rules is therefore free to pass through.

If the U.S. and Iran -- sorry.

ANDERSON: No, go on if -- carry on.

SHARPE: Well, if they to charge to take money there, the markets will adjust over time and traffic starts moving. Shipping is a very elastic creature. We know that from the Bab el-Mandeb in the bottom of the Red Sea. It just found another way, prices fluctuate. But eventually the costs are absorbed by the market.

And I suspect that eventually if shipping moves through Hormuz that'll happen as well. But if they charge a toll that'll be priced in by the shipping companies, it's more the precedent. At that point, you've essentially said, all right, choke points are now a free for all. And if China challenged in Malacca, let's say, or someone else, I don't know Strait of Gibraltar I mean there are loads of these or the high nor over a better example and Russia go, OK, we're now going to start charging, you've lost your ability to stop that. And now suddenly the freedom of navigation principles on which the world depends has gone. So the precedent is very dangerous.

[04:40:15]

ANDERSON: Yes, one source described to me how a joint venture might develop within the body of the sort of rules. And I think we're talking about here the U.N. Convention of the seas which is a 1982 Convention. If the U.S. and Iran were able to cook up something that said we provide safety and security, then you might begin to see how you could sort of circumvent the idea of just calling this a toll because as you rightly point out a toll, you know, in Egypt or Panama is a, you know, it's a tax put on shipping by countries who own that canal.

But there is some thinking about, you know, what sort of safety and security contracts might look like. Now you might charge for them in the Strait of Hormuz. Just one source telling me that of course there's an awful lot of sort of speculation and conjecture going on at present. It's always good to have you Tom. And your insight is valuable. I do think we focus as I hand this back to Danny Freeman in New York, just have to consider that the sort of diplomacy that we are seeing from this U.S. administration under this new president can look very different from the sort of diplomacy that we saw in the past.

You might call it out-of-the-box thinking. You might call it muddled. You might call it something which is unacceptable within the sort of framework of normal diplomacy. But it is what it is in 2026. So it's worth exploring, you know, what some of this thinking might look like. Start of the 10:00 today this Friday, Danny, back to you in New York.

DANNY FREEMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Now, well, said Becky. And a lot of more developments coming up I'm sure as we get into the weekend here. Thanks for that. We'll see in the next hour.

Coming up in a moment, Hungary's populist prime minister is facing his toughest political challenge yet in his 16 years in power. But he's getting some support from the Trump administration ahead of elections this weekend. CNN reports from Hungary coming up next.

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[04:47:06]

FREEMAN: This weekend could be a pivotal moment in Hungary as voters head to the polls for parliamentary elections that could result in a new leader for the country. Right-wing Prime Minister Victor Orban is facing his toughest political challenge yet in his 16 years in power. The election is being closely watched by the Trump administration which sees Orban as a darling of the MAGA movement. CNN's Melissa Bell has more.

MELISSA BELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the American Vice President left nothing to chance or to doubt explaining that he was here in Budapest this week to help his friend Victor Orban win this election just days from the poll what we'd seen in February was Marco Rubio come here to do the same explaining that Victor Orban success was our success, meaning MAGA's.

They really see American officials their fate tied with that of the man who really championed the way, showed them the way how do to turn a Western democracy into an illiberal one. Now, there are those diehard supporters of Victor Orban who believe that that's great that the support that he's had from Washington that his proximity to Moscow are things to be celebrated.

One of the interesting things about this campaign is that the campaign posters for Victor Orban show President Zelenskyy's face because he's really used the war in neighboring Ukraine as a way of frightening people into voting for Fidesz, explaining that if there's a change of power to Tisza the movement that's been led by Peter Magyar, well then all kinds of things will happen not least a change when it comes to Ukraine and that could mean more Involvement in the war for Hungarians which worries them a great deal.

Peter Magyar on the other hand has run a really remarkable campaign on very Domestic issues the fact that Hungarians look around them and in this part of Europe. Their neighbors seem to be doing better economically. He's run on bread and butter issues on the fact of the health care system, not being where it should be and that appears to have made the difference even in what had been Fidesz bastions like this one. Traditionally, Budapest is more liberal leaning than the rest of Hungary. And here to the southwest this town had long been very much in the hands of Victor Orban's party. Even here the polls suggest Peter Magyar might make inroads end up having the town full to Tisza and that really is Remarkable. So everyone very much looking to Sunday.

Many Hungarians who are hoping for change after 16 years with a great deal of hope. But this is also an election of course that is being so closely watched from outside by Washington, by Moscow and of course by Brussels. Remember that Victor Orban's rule of Hungary has also been marked by a distancing from Brussels. And he's really sort of become the arch blocker of the European Union.

So there will be many in Brussels who heave a sigh of relief if he does fall. They have hired tried very hard however to stay entirely out of this election, and it is the United States Representatives, its officials both Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance who've had no such qualms making their way here really in the days ahead of the election, a remarkable show of force by Washington to try and sway an election because it looks so tight.

[04:50:22]

FREEMAN: Melissa Bell, thank you very much for that report. We'll be right back.

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FREEMAN: Pope Leo has welcomed Italian Olympic and Paralympic athletes to the Vatican. The Pope said sport must become a place where people come together. He added that during times of polarization and conflict, their commitment takes on an even greater significance.

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[04:55:10]

POPE LEO XIV (through translator): On the occasion of these games, I sought to recall the value of the Olympic truce. Through your presence you made this possibility of peace tangible like a prophecy that is far from rhetorical to break the logic of violence and to promote that of encounter.

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FREEMAN: Also, take a look at this. More than 300 items from Queen Elizabeth II's the second's wardrobe are now on display in Buckingham Palace to mark a hundred years since her birth. Queen Elizabeth II, her life and style, showcases fashion from nearly a century of her royal life including dresses, tiaras and even her wedding necklace. More than half of the items have never been exhibited before. The curator says the exhibition explores every decade of the Queen's life from her birth until her death. Queen's reigns still in her death shining bright. All right. Thank you so much for joining us this morning. I'm Danny Freeman. Becky Anderson and I will be back with another hour of Early Start after a quick break.

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