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First Move with Julia Chatterley
The White House Throws Everything It Has Got Against Impeachment; Investors Look For Clues From Federal Reserve Minutes Out Today; Turkish Government Has Begun Its Incursion On Northern Syria. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired October 09, 2019 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
PAULA NEWTON, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Live from the New York Stock Exchange, I'm Paula Newton sitting in for Julia Chatterley, and here's what
you need to know right now.
It's war. The White House throws everything it has got against impeachment. In the meantime, futures surge on new China trade hopes. And
awaiting the Fed. Investors look for clues from the Minutes out today. And it is Wednesday, and this is FIRST MOVE.
Welcome to FIRST MOVE. Glad to have you with us. Guys, just one day to go before the U.S. and China kickoff their 13th -- yes -- 13th round of trade
talks in Washington.
Now, stock futures are solidly higher amid hope that some kind of a deal can be reached. I will point out, futures were higher earlier in the
session, but we'll see how they get off to the races in about a half an hour from now.
This is despite all this new tension that we've been telling you about the two countries, there's still hopes for what is what they're talking about
to be a partial trade deal. That's even after of course the U.S. move to blacklist more Chinese tech firms and restrict visas of Chinese officials
suspected of human rights violations.
Now reports that China may also be ready to spend billions on new U.S. farm products to help reach a deal. Remember, the President have talked about
that often. We're still waiting for it to happen.
Now, I need to remind you guys or do I need to remind you guys, we have been down this road before, right? It's only ended in tears. So we're
going to take all of this with a grain of salt or maybe we'll make it a rock of salt.
Remember, President Trump may not be willing to sign off on any kind of a skinny deal after all. Now, in the middle of all of this trade drama, I
call it the trade twitch. We have big news, of course from the Fed.
Jay Powell says the Central Bank will begin buying up bonds again to help relieve the recent strains in the financial system. Yes, it has that ever
expanding balance sheet open again, just do not call it quantitative easing. Jay Powell was very clear on that.
Now later today, the Fed releases the minutes of its latest policy meeting. We could get clarity into where interest rates are going from here.
Remember, some people are putting in that October rate cut, something that we weren't even thinking about a few weeks ago. Now a weak reading on U.S.
wholesale prices yesterday could give the Fed further room to cut in December. But also, as I say in October.
We want to get more on this and our drivers. Christine Romans joins us now. All right, Christine, we will go first to trade. You know --
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Not the easy one.
NEWTON: Yes, exactly. And here, we can quote that great line from Brexit. Right, Christine? That if you think you know where trade negotiations are
going, you just haven't been paying attention. Right?
I mean, we've got all of these little reports telling us yes, the trade deal is on, yes, the trade deal is off. I mean, yesterday, we were down so
far in the market in the last hour of trade on yet another trade headline.
Christine, I have to ask you, what they're talking about now is quite frankly, not very significant. Right? It's like back as you were, we take
down the tariffs. Everyone to their corners. China promises to buy more agricultural goods.
ROMANS: So here's my sense, because every day there are new little trial balloons and little messages and nudges from the Chinese side, in
particular earlier this week, and from the Americans, right.
And, and from the Chinese side, it felt to me like they were trying to guide lower expectations earlier in the week to a narrow deal. There's not
going to be going back to where it was, you know, earlier this year where they had a big -- they decided together, a handshake, you know, gentleman's
terms, what they were going to do, and then the Chinese went home and couldn't sell it to the Communist Party elites, right?
I don't think you're going back there. They're talking about a narrower deal now with agriculture purchase, and maybe some other things in there.
That I don't know -- earlier this week, that was seen as a negative in the markets.
Today, that is seen as a positive in the markets, because maybe the Chinese were successful in guiding those expectations lower. There are two camps
here. There's a camp that wants a course correction in the American- Chinese trade relationship and that is more than just buying Ag, right?
Then there's another camp that wants the symbolic victory because the President really needs it heading into the election year and that's
accepting maybe a big Ag purchase and maybe some liberalization for us financial firms in China, maybe make it a little bit easier for the banks
and financial services in China.
There's a camp though in the U.S. that would take that too, in exchange for dropping any more new tariffs or tariffs escalations there. Will the
President agree to that? That's a big question, because he doesn't want to be seen as someone who just took the symbolic victory because he has been
promising a real substantial victory.
NEWTON: Yes, and when you're a CFO in corporate America, you're looking at, you know, imposition of more tariffs in October and again in December.
So to your point, Christine, if they get even that skinny deal that will be likely good enough for the market. So I want to bring you out of the Fed.
And I'm going interested to get your take on this, given your background. Jay Powell, felt that on a technical level, look, this had to be done.
That's true.
And yet he is saying, look, this isn't a crisis, we're expanding that balance sheet. We will be buying up the T-bills, but it's on this -- the
credit spreads and both the overnight rate, some people felt that the Fed wasn't getting it quite right. What do you think?
[09:05:20]
ROMANS: You know, that really caught a lot of people by surprise. And this is where the New York Fed had to go there through the repo market and
try to stabilize the overnight lending market.
And the last time they done that was during the crash. Right? And so that caused some nervousness and we heard a lot of no, no, this is just a
technical, you know, a technical move. And now the Fed - the Federal Reserve will be buying up T-bills, they didn't give us a lot of details,
let's be honest, but we'll be buying up some T-bills to expand its balance sheet.
No, it's not quantitative easing. No, it's not like back in the crash when we were doing quantitative easing to try to cushion the economy, but
doesn't it suggest to you that there is something happening here, right? And the Fed is using its mechanisms to smooth it out. But it does it -- it
does that sort of tell you that there's something new and some kind of a glitch happening here in terms of how the funding markets are working, that
they are watching.
What I think is that for 10 years, we had all this stimulus, cheap money, multiple rounds of quantitative easing, right? And then just as the Fed
was trying to narrow that down, get back to normal, you have a trade war and you have other things happening -- global slowdown that is starting to
make that a little more difficult.
So I think these are the hiccups that you're seeing from what has been an unprecedented expansion of the balance sheet, and then an attempt to try to
dwindle it down.
NEWTON: Yes, it's been interesting the market interpretation, Christine, because in the last few weeks, they are seeming to get a little bit more
confidence with this Fed Chair, realizing that he is trying to put aside you know, all the interference from Donald Trump as well. So we'll see
what happens when we get those Minutes later on this afternoon.
Christine, always great to see you. Really appreciate it.
ROMANS: You, too, Paula. Bye.
NEWTON: Now, Donald Trump, as you were just saying is of course, defiant. Now, he is in a fierce counter attack. The Trump White House says it will
not cooperate with the impeachment investigation.
Democrats say the Trump administration is taking the country down a very dangerous path. Following it all is Suzanne Malveaux. She joins me now
from Washington.
You know, it was predictable, but it still last night landed like a bombshell. Right? The White House saying look, absolutely not, we refuse
to cooperate with this.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN U.S. CORRESPONDENT: It absolutely did, because Paula, the White House is now saying it's declaring war on House Democrats.
They are in fact obstructing this Impeachment Inquiry, and they say the reason why is they believe the whole endeavor is unconstitutional.
So in the meantime, you have House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her caucus, really trying to figure out what their next moves are forward. One
Democratic lawmaker telling us earlier today that yes, if these witnesses do not come forward voluntarily, they will be subpoenaed. If they ignore
these subpoenas, they will do so at their own peril.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX (voice over): President Trump continuing to stonewall House Democrats in their investigation efforts. The White House sending a
scathing letter to Nancy Pelosi and House committees, refusing to cooperate, calling the Impeachment Inquiry "illegitimate" and
"unconstitutional."
Pelosi sending her own strongly-worded warning, writing, "Mr. President, you are not above the law. You will be held accountable."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA): The President is obstructing -- obstructing Congress from getting the facts that we need. He is -- that is an abuse of
power for him to act in this way. And that is -- that is one of the reasons that we have an Impeachment Inquiry.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX (voice over): The war of words heating up after the White House blocked the U.S. Ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland, from
appearing before three House committees on Tuesday.
His attorney writing in a statement, "Ambassador Sondland is profoundly disappointed that he will not be able to testify."
House Democrats immediately issuing a subpoena to the Ambassador.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. ADAM SCHIFF (D-CA): The failure to produce this witness, the failure to produce these documents, we consider yet additional strong evidence of
obstruction.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX (voice over): But a defiant President Trump claiming he wanted Sondland to testify, blaming the Democrats in a tweet, writing,
"Unfortunately, he would be testifying before a totally compromised kangaroo court, where Republicans' rights have been taken away."
Trump's GOP allies nearly repeating those words verbatim as a defense.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. MATT GAETZ (R-FL): What we see in this impeachment is a kangaroo court.
REP. DEVIN NUNES (R-CA): I think it was described today as a kangaroo court, and that's probably being nice.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX (voice over): House Democrats say it's crucial to press forward with their investigation.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. PETER WELCH (D-VT): The president doesn't make the rules for the House of Representatives. That's the whole point here.
Our objective is in necessity, is that we go through this carefully and develop the evidence before we reach conclusions.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX (voice over): This coming as more details about President Trump's July 25th phone call with Ukraine's President emerged. As first reported
in "The New York Times," in a memo written by the first whistleblower, a White House official who listened in on the call described it as "crazy,"
"frightening," and "completely lacking in substance related to national security," adding the official was "visibly shaken by what had transpired."
[09:10:19]
MALVEAUX (voice over): Sources tell CNN as soon as President Trump hung up the phone, his administration began a mad dash to prevent fallout from the
conversation. And White House lawyers later ordered the transcript of Trump's call be moved to a highly secure server.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: One of the big questions of course, whether or not the former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, who was still a State Department employee will
be allowed to testify on Friday when Democratic lawmakers saying he had a 6:00 a.m. flight on Friday. He is not sure if he is going to actually be
able to get on that flight to make that flight if this doesn't happen.
On the other side, of course, Paula is the White House gearing up for a long intense battle. They're reaching out to outside lawyers to join their
legal team. One of those individuals possibly to join the team would be the former lawmaker from South Carolina, Trey Gowdy, and he was famously
known for leading the Benghazi investigation -- Paula.
NEWTON: And at that time, he was none too pleased accusing, of course, the State Department of not cooperating the way they should. Suzanne, it is
never a dull moment there for you. Thanks so much for bringing us up to speed. Appreciate it.
MALVEAUX: Thank you.
NEWTON: Now a day after the NBA Commissioner defended free speech and in escalating row was China, Chinese state media is now hitting back attacking
Adam Silver for quote, "hiding behind freedom of speech and challenging Chinese sovereignty."
David Culver joins me and David, it's so significant, isn't it, that Adam Silver will be there in China quite soon. He may not be getting that red
carpet welcome. But heck, they didn't cancel the trip.
DAVID CULVER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No, in fact, he is here right now. We have not seen him all day. There was supposed to be a late evening press
conference here, Paula - that was abruptly cancelled. They didn't give a full explanation as to why.
So as of now, today, the NBA is keeping quiet as are the two teams that are here, the Lakers and the Nets. But that comes after yesterday, they stood
strong in their stance of saying that they support Daryl Morey the GM from the Houston Rockets and they support his freedom of expression, not
necessarily endorsing what he said with regards to the Hong Kong protest, but certainly his right to post it and say it.
As you point out, generally, it's a red carpet welcome. Or how about this? Big banners with your face on it on buildings. That's what we got here.
But look, this is live right now. You can see just over my shoulder workers are taking down those banners. They've already taken out one half
of the building and they're doing now this one.
This as the Chinese broadcaster CCTV, they are the ones who have halted the deal of broadcasting preseason games here in China. They're taking it a
step further today, Paula, they have said that they will not back down. That the Chinese people are standing strong, and that they demand an
apology from the NBA.
Now, the NBA for its part we're hearing from one of its players, the Houston Rockets guard, James Harden, he spoke out in Tokyo, I want you to
listen to what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMES HARDEN, HOUSTON ROCKETS GUARD: We all have freedom of speech. That's the world we live in, and everybody should -- how they feel and
their thought process, be able to speak it. You know, obviously some people were going to shoo some stuff away, some people are going to agree.
That's just the world we live in.
So you know, I'm here for Adam Silver.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CULVER: Standing by his Commissioner, Adam Silver, Paula. I went to one of the NBA style stores here in Shanghai, I wanted to get an idea as to
what merchandise was still available. They've pulled all the Rockets merchandise. The clerk was telling us that they got demands from their
bosses that those have to go. It is not clear if the stores will even stay open for much longer if this worsening relationship continues to
deteriorate.
NEWTON: Wow. They pulled all of that merchandise. It is one of the more popular franchises in China, as I understand. That's incredible. And
David, the here and now. Right? They're pulling down the billboard for what was supposed to be a marquee game broadcast live.
And I want to talk to you about those Chinese basketball fans because I know that you've been talking to them in the last few days. You know, what
do they think in terms of what they might even tell you off camera?
I mean, are they expecting that this will blow over at some point and that they will be enjoying basketball games and basketball merchandise, any kind
of basketball merchandise again?
CULVER: What better place to find those basketball fans, the strong NBA followers than outside the hotels where the players are staying. So we did
just that. In fact, it's just across the street from where we are here. And there's crowds that are right at the lobby entrance.
So we talked to a few of the mostly young men who were there and as they're in the crowd, Paula, it was interesting because they were saying that they
love the NBA. They love following basketball. They love the teams who are here and certain players, but their country comes first and they stress
that patriotism.
[09:15:13]
CULVER: As we were walking away, a young man came up to us and said, can I talk to you guys a little bit further away? So we allowed him to separate
from the crowd. And he came and said, look what I couldn't say in front of the crowd, because I was a little bit nervous that they would react
negatively, is that I think there's a big misunderstanding here. We're talking about two different cultures, two different mindsets, the U.S. and
China that simply don't understand each other.
And he said that I'm hoping this can be recognized, healed, and we can move forward because he said he'd be really upset if China decided to ban the
NBA altogether.
NEWTON: Wow, David, incredible insight there and I know you'll continue to follow it as this game apparently goes on from Shanghai. David again,
thanks so much, really appreciate it.
Now, these are the stories -- other stories that are making headlines around the world right now. Turkey says its military is set to cross into
Northern Syria shortly. The operation is part of an offensive to move U.S.-backed Kurdish forces away from the border. It follows U.S. President
Donald Trump's decision to pull back U.S. troops from the region earlier this week.
Our Nick Paton Walsh is at the Turkish-Syria border. He joins me now by phone, Nick, do you have any indication that their mission and their method
will change? Remember, Donald Trump claims that he is keeping an eye on what Turkish forces are doing?
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (via phone): Yes, Paula. Forgive me, we have a poor connection here down on the Turkish-
Syrian border, because in the last sort of few minutes or so, a lot of the cell phone service has collapsed on the Turkish side here and now we have
had (INAUDIBLE) infrastructure or possibly holding some kind of larger activity here.
I have to also say, in the last (INAUDIBLE) --
NEWTON: Nick, we seem to be losing you there. I'll just try this one more time. Nick, can you hear me? And I think that we have lost Nick Paton
Walsh.
But I want to bring you up to speed on exactly what's going on now. We do have it confirmed that in fact, the Turkish government and Turkish forces
have begun their incursion into Northern Syria there and we remind you how controversial that is.
Donald Trump is continuing to keep an eye on this that in his words, this will not turn into a massacre. And earlier, President Putin was on the
phone with President Erdogan and they claim -- they claim this will lead to more peace and prosperity in Syria.
We will certainly see how this unfolds.
We still have more to come on FIRST MOVE. Profits not protest. Capitalism can save the planets says the author of a new book. He tells us how
shortly.
And side effects may vary. Big Pharma scrambles to contain the fallout of drugs that harm.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:16:03]
NEWTON: And we want to go straight back to our breaking news. Nick Paton Walsh is on the Turkish-Syrian border where now the Turkish government
confirms that in fact are incursion into Northern Syria has started. Nick, what can you tell us?
PATON WALSH (via phone): Obviously, at this point, Paula, we are really unsure what noises we've been hearing actually mean, in the last sort of
five to seven minutes or so since we last spoke.
We heard where from a distance sound like impacts. Look, I have to tell you, obviously, we don't know who fired them and what the intention of them
was. It is thousands of other possible explanations as to whether or not an operation in itself in earnest has begun.
So I can't give you any direct evidence of that. But I'm hearing again, what sounds like an impact and we have seen inside town of Tell Abyad what
looks like a plume of smoke emerging from further inside that particular settlement. We have to verify.
That's one of the towns on the Turkish-Syrian border which the U.S. -- one of two towns where U.S. forces pulled out of in the last 48 hours or so.
I can see another actually plume of smoke in the distance there. Once again, another indication that an operation has started because there are
lots of possible other reasons why we might be seeing explosions and what is already becoming fast and tested territory, but the tension has been
building here during the afternoon.
Certainly the movement of Turkish military hardware that we've seen have been quite enormous to the sort of visible eye out in secure areas. But it
would be matching the drumbeat of Turkish political rhetoric here.
Certainly, President Erdogan has spoken to his Russian ally -- another sound of like a blast here. So it's becoming increasingly frequent that
we're hearing these explosions, which makes it sound less likely this is a series of accidents, obviously.
But Turkish military are asking people where we've been standing to move back a little bit. I wouldn't quite say they were in heightened alert, but
I think it's fair to say around here, the town of Akcakale, which immediately faces Tell Abyad, which we believe is one of the first
(INAUDIBLE) military operations seeks to clear. This has certainly had a change in atmosphere during the afternoon.
Quite though, we're beginning to see the start of, it is unclear like I say. I have to explain to you, we're talking to you on the phone here,
because in the last half hour, everybody's cell phone signal suddenly vanished, causing a lot of us to speculate that it might be connected to
the beginning of something like jamming, for example, rather than just poor infrastructure here.
Everything had been working very well during the day. But as we stand here, we are looking at now another plume of smoke on the horizon over Tall
Abyad which certainly I think given the frequency of what's -- it's very hard to tell -- an area the size of these many buildings around. Hearing
another one now, which looks like it may be the beginning of some sort of shelling maybe or explosion impacts that we're hearing on the other side.
As I say that doesn't necessarily mean the beginning of Turkish military operation. There are other reasons why we could be hearing these kind of
explosions. I've stood here four or five years ago, and seen this town held by ISIS, you know, an area that has been subject to extraordinary
fighting, but certainly, today, the atmosphere has been changing in the last hour or so.
NEWTON: Yes, and unfortunately, it may still be the scene of quite a battle, you know, the Kurdish forces, Nick, as you know, have warned that
this is the beginning of humanitarian catastrophe.
I go back to what I asked you before, is there any indication that the mission or the method on the part of the Turkish forces has changed?
PATON WALSH: I'm sorry. Forgive me, I'm struggling to hear your question, but obviously, key issues here for the Turkish military are the scope of
the mission they wish to undertake. Now, after what they probably perceive at a higher political level of the green light from Donald Trump in that
Sunday phone call, real packed upon since they may well feel this is the time in which they need to do something even if it is symbolic.
But I have to also say, you know, they have an extensively ambitious plan that we heard President Erdogan. Another impact we're hearing that sounds
very much likely from artillery (INAUDIBLE) --
[09:25:11]
PATON WALSH: Okay. And you can probably hear that slightly more loudly out there.
Let's just pull back, guys. Bring the camera.
All right, Paula, I am just going to have to leave you here. I think we're going to move away from this area.
NEWTON: Absolutely, Nick. And we will continue to follow. Well, we have live pictures now from the Turkish Syrian border where this Turkish
operation has started. The Turkish government saying that this Turkish offensive in Syria has now started.
Remember that this has been incredibly controversial, with Kurdish forces warning of a humanitarian catastrophe, if this incursion is allowed to
happen, and remember, too that it was President Trump who said that he decided, look, the U.S. forces are pulling back, that the Turkish forces
would be allowed to move into to build what they claim is a buffer zone on their border.
The U.S. President in tweets has said that he would, in his words, obliterate the Turkish economy, if there was any kind of a humanitarian
catastrophe that was allowed to happen.
Significant as well, and I want to point this out that the Turkish President was on the phone with the Russian President today. And it's
significant to know exactly how they're framing this. They claim that what they are trying to do is bring more peace and prosperity to Syria, they
actually are saying that this kind of incursion will speed the path to a political resolution.
I remind people that the Kurds would say the very opposite and say that what they are trying to do is unfortunately try to obliterate them in that
region and make sure that they do not have any political currency to be a part of serious future in that region, but also a part of Turkey's future
in that region.
Again, they continue to warn of a humanitarian catastrophe. You heard, Nick Paton Walsh there talk about what he was hearing was more activity.
It is difficult to know how long this will go on for or exactly what it will mean in that buffer zone.
We have had reports from human rights organizations that say that in that region, the situation is already not good. And the fact that what this
will do, will continue to exacerbate and perhaps even embolden ISIS to rise again.
You had heard from Nick Paton was there that, you know, that area was held by ISIS just a little while ago.
I want to bring in our diplomatic editor, Nic Robertson now, who joins me. Nic, as you see these pictures, and I was just pointing out that look, it's
significant, right, that Russia and Turkey had that phone call before this incursion started.
You know, I asked Nick Paton Walsh, I'll ask you, Nic, you know, is there any sense that the method or the mission has changed for Turkey now that
Donald Trump has come out and essentially threatened them and said, this better go the way we want it to, because if it doesn't, I will obliterate
your economy.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: You know, I think after President Trump said that, and we heard from President Erdogan's
spokesman, he seemed, you know, a little bit cautious in the language that he used. For sure, Turkey has felt the economic deprivations from measures
from the United States.
So they will be alive to that, and they will be aware of it. But I think when you know, when it comes to military intervention like this, the real
pressure on Erdogan politically at home is obviously to effect a successful military operation.
And that means he has got to look at his strategic interest, his national interest through that prism at the moment. He is committed to this. He
says he is going to do it. He is not, you know, on the stablest political footing at home, he recognizes that the support for him and his party has
been eroding in recent elections, so he cannot afford to callously and carelessly lose the lives of Turkish soldiers.
So strategically, he is going to partner up inside Syria with any partner that can provide a degree of certainty that his troops are not going to get
into clashes with them -- Russia -- that there are understood boundaries and border lines between the forces and beyond that if there are areas of
cooperation where they could work together and it's in Turkey strategic interest then yes, he is going to do that.
But I think from Erdogan's point of view, really pressing on him or not to be to have a high death toll for Turkish soldiers. That would come at a
political price for him.
NEWTON: I know sometimes the question has to be posed though, right? Right, Nic? How will we even know exactly what's going on in this and what
you know, shade of gray the U.S. administration is willing to accept?
At the end of the day, is it your feeling that Turkey does have the green light from the United States regardless, to do exactly what they want in
this area, and create that buffer zone, no matter the cost.
[09:30:12]
ROBERTSON: I think what we can say for sure is that one of the constraints and restraints on Erdogan has been the United States. Now, Erdogan has
been edging his relationship with Russia ever stronger buying those S-400 defensive missile systems from Russia. And that cost him the F-35s that he
was buying from the United States. And for a number of reasons that relationship has been deteriorating.
So, you know, from that perspective, the relationship with the United States has been on a back foot for Erdogan, certainly when he released the
American pastor who was under house arrest. He had been under arrest for some time. There was an alleviation a couple of years ago from, you know,
from economic constraints from the United States for Turkey and that was a benefit to Turkey.
But I think, in this relationship, the United States for sure, was a force and a voice for Erdogan that was saying hold back. It was always and had
long been Erdogan's desire to open up this safe zone along the border for refugees. This has been something that have been coming up at peace talks
and initiatives from Turkey for the last perhaps three or four years, at least perhaps five years now.
So Erdogan wanted to do this for a long time. So I think when we analyze it today, the fact that he is now doing it does show that he doesn't feel
as constrained as he once was, through his relationship with the United States, because undoubtedly, the United States was a break on that.
And now, you know, whether you call it a green light or not, or whether you've just removed the traffic signal altogether, you know, Erdogan is
getting to do what he wants and has long wanted to do.
NEWTON: Yes, and so significant now, Nic, to underscore the fact that, look, Turkey is a NATO ally, and this whole incursion will also put Europe
in a very difficult spot.
Nic, I'm going to have to let you go for now. We will continue to check in with you as we continue to look at those live pictures right now on the
Syrian-Turkish border as Turkey begins its incursion into Syria.
We want to go now to Pentagon reporter, Ryan Browne. He joins me. Ryan, you and I were talking a little while ago, right, about the fact that those
within the Pentagon were saying, look, we do not think this is a good idea that the President was certainly getting a lot of counter spin for what he
wanted to happen. I mean, how's the Pentagon playing this now?
RYAN BROWNE, CNN PENTAGON REPORTER: Well, that's absolutely right, Paula. The Pentagon has long been opposed to Turkish military incursion into this
area. They've warned that it could have immense destabilizing effects, both affecting the ISIS fight, you know, this can really -- the Pentagon
saying that ISIS is not defeated, they very much remain a threat.
Also prisons, these vast detention centers that the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces are operating thousands and thousands of ISIS fighters in
detention in prison. There's a real risk that they could be sprung loose by a Turkish attack.
So the Pentagon has long warned against this. And that is what has led to the original deployment of this small number of U.S. personnel along the
border. They were in effect, hoping to have that serve as deterrence to prevent Turkey from attacking America's Kurdish allies in the region, but
also to prevent any other clashes between the various groups.
Once those U.S. forces were pulled back, then, of course, that did kind of pave the way for a Turkey to launch this offensive.
NEWTON: Ryan, put a fine point on it, is there anything that they said to the President wants, you know, he had taken this decision? Is there
anything the Pentagon said to him? Anything he could say through back channels, which would at least change perhaps, if not the mission, but as I
keep saying, the method behind what Turkey is going to do right now?
Can the United States and the Pentagon continue to be a moderating force in that region in terms of the way Turkey tries to pull this off, even if they
have pulled back those troops?
BROWNE: Well, the Pentagon is in a very difficult spot here, because of course, they've removed the troops that were kind of in between, but also
there is still this problem of ISIS in other areas. They want to continue working with the Syrian Democratic Forces running these detention centers,
fighting ISIS further to the south.
They're keeping an eye on Russia and the regime, which U.S. officials are telling me are increasingly kind of eyeing these areas, may be potentially
trying to exploit the chaos wrought by this Turkish incursion to expand their territory coming in from the west.
So there's a lot of competing issues that the Pentagon has to keep an eye on, and it has a relatively small footprint in Syria, about a thousand
troops.
So it's a lot of now complexity, a lot more risk going on as a result of this operation that they're going to have to keep an eye on whether they
can deter Turkey. That seems to be a big question.
Now, they may be looking a little bit to Congress. Capitol Hill, several prominent U.S. senators, including Lindsey Graham have threatened Turkey
with economic sanctions, with other potential penalties if Turkey kind of conducted this offensive operation.
[09:35:13]
BROWNE: Now that it's being launched, we'll see if there's any response from those quarters, but the Pentagon and the U.S. military in Syria are in
a bit of a tough spot right now.
NEWTON: Yes, it's such a good point, isn't it, Ryan, in terms of the kind of power that even Congress has to kind of mitigate what the President
wanted to do. Lindsey Graham, you make such a good point, such an ally of the President, and yet saying that this was not a good decision, and Nikki
Haley, right? The President's former Ambassador to the UN, literally, quote, unquote, calling it a "big mistake." And here we are right now.
Ryan Browne, standby with me for a second. We're going to also bring back Nic Robertson into this conversation. Nic, I'm reading a statement, of
course, from the Kurdish-led forces thing that we call on our people, all of our ethnic groups to move toward areas close to the border. They say
that this is a resistance now of historic proportions.
I mean, Nic, the Kurds certainly see this as an existential crisis at this point for them.
ROBERTSON: Well, they do, and they've just lost their principal backer in the form of the United States. So I think what we're also seeing here is
this isn't just a message being made public for Kurdish civilians, even to help in what could become a very bloody confrontation here.
They're not just calling for them, I think when they make it public in this way, that's really sending up a message balloon, if you will, for the whole
international community, which is, look, we're going to do the best we can, but we desperately need help. We can't do this alone.
So I do sort of take that kind of messaging as more of an international signal to get support and get help. They certainly know that they've got
the ear of you know, we're talking about Lindsey Graham, but there's certainly got the ear and the understanding of plenty of Western security
experts who will understand intrinsically their plight, because they've been there helping them as part of the coalition that was working with them
to take down ISIS.
So this is a message that I think it's going to resonate beyond that border region, but to the point of calling up their own civilians, it does
indicate how desperately stuck they feel at the moment.
But of course, civilians don't do what a highly coordinated and highly sophisticated U.S. military can do. It doesn't need to have many boots on
the ground to be able to bring to bear an effective deterrent, not that it was ever going to get into a shootout with Turkish forces, but the clout
that the United States has withdrawn is going to be deeply felt and it won't be made up just by a matter of throwing more civilians towards the
border.
NEWTON: Yes, and really, you have to heed their warnings right, that they do believe this will lead to a humanitarian catastrophe. Nic Robertson,
you are going to stand by for us.
But in the meantime, we will go to a break as we continue to follow this story as the Turkish government begins its offensive into Northern Syria.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:41:12]
NEWTON: I'm Paula Newton. Welcome back and we are back to our breaking news story with the Turkish government that has now started its offensive,
it's incursion into Northern Syria in an attempt they say to create a buffer zone there. A lot of complicated issues right now.
Remember, this started when the United States Donald Trump agreed that they would pull back U.S. troops that from this point had been keeping Turkish
forces from that incursion. They now essentially have a green light from the American government.
Our Pentagon Reporter, Ryan Browne joins me now from the Pentagon. I want to ask you, Ryan about something that has come up, right? The Kurds there,
in fact, are keeping ISIS detainees, a significant number of dangerous ISIS detainees in prisons there.
The Kurds have warned in this kind of incursion, in this kind of battle, they have no idea if they are going to continue to keep those ISIS
prisoners in there. I know this has been an open question. Is the United States concerned about this? And are they willing to do anything about it?
BROWNE: Well, it's a great question and the United States is absolutely concerned about this issue. As you said, the Syrian Democratic Forces,
America's Kurdish allies, they are detaining over 10,000 ISIS fighters including over 2,000 foreigners, many of whom are from Europe.
And they've -- even before all of this started, the Kurdish forces there had been stretched fairly thin, maintaining these detention facilities, you
know, they are not professional prisons. These aren't -- they are often make shift camps and have been a very challenging mission for them.
Now, you add this Turkish incursion, where a lot of the Kurdish forces are now having to respond to moving up to that area. There's a real concern
that these camps, these prisons will be undermanned, understaffed.
ISIS has actually said publicly that its goal in order to aid its resurgence in Syria is to kind of conduct a massive prison break to help
many of its former members escape prison so they can reconstitute itself. The U.S. is very concerned.
But your second question whether the U.S. is actually going to do anything about it, President Trump has made it very clear that the United States
will not take responsibility for housing these prisoners, saying that the U.S. isn't willing to incur those costs.
And while they've asked -- while the U.S. has asked Europe to repatriate its citizens, there hasn't been much support for that from European
countries. And not to mention, there's no solution to the 8,000 local national detainees that are there. So this is a very complex problem
without a simple solution. The U.S. very much concerned about it, but not clear what they're going to do.
NEWTON: Yes, and it is a problem. And President Trump has continually said look, we want Europe and countries like Canada to take back at least
some of those fighters. No telling where that plea will go now, because so far from those countries. It's been crickets.
Ryan Browne, standby there for us from the Pentagon. We want to go back to our Nick Paton Walsh who is on the Syrian-Turkish border for us right now.
Nick, bring us up to speed. Have you been able to learn anything more?
PATON WALSH (via phone): Since we last spoke, Paula, we have a better vantage point now and it's quite clear, the continued shelling has been
happening in an expansive (INAUDIBLE) to what would the west-hand side of the Tall Abyad, the Syrian town which was (INAUDIBLE) --
U.S. forces pulled out (INAUDIBLE) from President Erdogan, but (INAUDIBLE) --
Battle in Tall Abyad which really stems from some longer burning and then off to my right-hand side, off to the west of Tall Abyad, as I say what
looks like convoys moving through the fields. They're hard to tell, but being possibly consistent with the shells that preceded their advance.
[09:45:10]
PATON WALSH: So we don't really know the extent of what the Turkish Military has planned here and I that's the key question, Tall Abyad and Ras
al-Ain, two Syrian towns along the border from which they say U.S. forces withdrew in the last (INAUDIBLE).
... vast expanse of territory with (INAUDIBLE), which has for quite some time been militarized by both sides on it at least (INAUDIBLE) anonymity
between the Syrian Kurds and the Turkish military of quite how far into northeastern Syria the Turkish military tends to go is unclear.
This maybe symbolic or possibly capitalize upon the perceived green light that Ankara feels it has on Washington, but it is very unclear still
whether or not President Erdogan has.
At this point, I would say just as we've witnessed forces to (INAUDIBLE) miles in the northeastern Syria, Syrian-Kurdish territory suggested wants
(INAUDIBLE). He held up at the UN, or whether we will this operation on gradually in stages over the weeks and months ahead.
There have been no doubt (INAUDIBLE) started, I think the question now is for those people inside Tall Abyad, grounds, which I should say we've seen
shelling (INAUDIBLE) inside the town. It is really uncertain (INAUDIBLE) - -
NEWTON: Nick, I am going to -- I apologize for our audience. We are doing the best we can. These mobile signals have been scrambled there on the
border as you can imagine with this kind of a military operation. Nick is on a satellite phone.
And as you can see, the connection is not great. We will continue to try and reconnect with him. But really significant in terms of what he was
saying. Because at this point, we don't even know how long the Turkish forces intend to carry on this operation, even though if we do know what
their mission is going to be the end and what they hope to get out of this.
Joining me now is Lieutenant General Mark Hertling. He is our CNN Military Analyst. And I have to ask you, what your thoughts are when you look at
this, when you remember that a very small number of U.S. troops were keeping this from happening, something that the Kurds believe will lead to
a massacre, they say.
MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: The U.S. forces that were there were doing exactly that. They were a tripwire, a warning to anyone like Turkey
coming into that area that they would not allow these kinds of things to happen.
When that -- when the U.S. forces were pulled out, when they dissipated their presence among the Kurdish forces, it was only a matter of time
before Turkey did this.
Turkey has been wanting to squash the Kurdish element in that northern part of Syria for decades now. This is not something new. They see the Kurds
in that area who believe that they are occupying historically relevant Kurdish homeland as being a threat to the country of Turkey.
And even though these Kurdish fighters were contributing to the fight against ISIS, with U.S. weapons, with U.S. equipment with U.S. support
through aircraft and joint Tactical Air Controllers. This was something that protected them as they continued to fight, but they also were
occupying what they consider their homeland.
What you've got to consider now is Turkey is actually using those same weapons as part of a NATO organization to go in to this incursion into
Turkish territory, to invade another country and to displace not Kurds, but what they call terrorists.
Across the board, they lump all Kurds together as a terrorist organization and they are seemingly going to conduct this operation to replace the Kurds
in this particular part of the country, with Syrian Arabs, which will cause greater contesting of this territory.
And it's shameful, it's sad and it's just something that many of us who have worked in this area of the world see as the continual contention and
conflict between Arabs and Kurds being exacerbated by this attack into Northern Syria by Turkey.
NEWTON: And, Mark, I'm so glad that you mentioned the fact that, of course, Turkey is a NATO ally here. And yet it's true that if you try and
surmise the fact that even what we've heard from Europe on this, it has been in fact, crickets, they have not been effective in trying to convince
the President Erdogan that he should change his theory on this.
You know, I know based on your knowledge and your last position for the U.S. Army there in Europe, could you envision anything like this happening?
HERTLING: I could not in the past, to be honest with you. But today, anything is possible when these kind of governments and authoritarian
regime like President Erdogan runs, being given a green light to conduct these kind of operations and that is in fact what he's done.
He has pitted -- President Trump has pitted a NATO force against another NATO force, us.
[09:50:10]
HERTLING: So as we withdrew from this territory, Turkey was literally given a free rein or free hand by President Trump, and I believe that there
will be serious repercussions in NATO headquarters in Belgium, as this occurs, because this is not something expected of a NATO country. It
doesn't meet the standards of NATO. And I think they will certainly be petitioned.
And that has been occurring, I would suggest, under the radar by other NATO forces trying to persuade President Erdogan not to do this is going to only
exacerbate the fight against ISIS. It's going to create as you talked to Ryan Browne again, a little while ago, it's going to create faster on ISIS
3.0 and al-Qaeda 3.0.
These terrorists are going to rise up. They have quite a bit of fighters that were being held by these Kurdish Peshmerga in this area. And I think
it wasn't just the fighters, but fighters and family members.
It's been estimated by Ambassador Brett McGurk that a third of the prisoners that are in some of these prison camps, up to 70,000 of them, a
third of those are women and children that are part of ISIS families.
So you're basically allowing when they're taken out from under guard, these ISIS fighters who fought so hard for the Caliphate over the last several
years to disperse, to go back potentially to their country of origin, mostly in Europe, to create problems there.
And truthfully, this was a predicted in many of the ISIS documents and journals that were sent out over the last two years. They go to ground.
Let's start forming a guerrilla war. We will be free again to start our fight toward the Caliphate.
So anyone who reads this other than a day-to-day operation sees that this is a long term fight by ISIS, it is a terrible move by Turkey and it's a
shameful move by the United States and the folks that we have sent over there, the soldiers and special operators on the ground who have been
working with their friends in the Syrian Defense Forces for the last several years to turn their back on their brothers in arms, the people they
had been fighting with this.
This is an awful moment in American history. We have once again turned our back on the Kurds. This isn't the first time we've done this. And I think
it's sending a message to all of our partners and allies that we're not dependent anymore.
NEWTON: Yes, it has been an extraordinary turn of events just in the last few days. Mark, I'm glad that you mentioned of course, the defiance of
those ISIS prisoners. Our Arwa Damon, our Ben Wiedemann have documented that and believe me, there is no contrition there in terms of the stories
they've been able to bring us.
And the Kurds have said it over and over and over again, we are in charge of these prisons right now. We do not know what will happen to these
militants if we are forced to go to the front as they have been right now to go fight. Mark, we're going to leave it there for now. But we'll
continue to check in with you. Really appreciate it.
We want to go now to the White House. Joe Johns is there and the obvious question, right, do we have any reaction from the White House now that this
incursion has started?
JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: No reaction so far, but I can tell you, Paula, that within the last hour or two, the President has
tweeted about Turkey, I'll just read you what he had to say, "Fighting between the various groups, it's been going on for a hundred years. "USA
..." he writes, " ... should never have been in the Middle East. Moved our 50 soldiers out. Turkey must take over captured ISIS fighters that Europe
refused to return. The stupid endless wars," he writes, " ... for us are ending."
So that's the President's position and actually articulated as well yesterday on Twitter and in a couple of other places and a senior
administration official echoing that as well within the last 24 hours. It was no surprise that Turkey was about to get started.
The White House has been pretty clear on what they don't want. They don't want the impression out there that the United States has sanctioned or
encouraged any military action by Turkey and the President has also pretty much issued a threat that if anything happens in Turkey that he really
doesn't like, he has threatened essentially to obliterate the economy of Turkey.
But no clear metrics and a lot of room for interpretation there from the White House. We're waiting for a reaction from them on this latest move.
Back to you.
NEWTON: Yes, Joe, thanks for that. And we continue, of course, to even watch Republicans, some of them who have spoken out, allies of the
President who have spoken out forcefully against this and we will see what the reaction is of Congress as well to this in the coming days and weeks.
Joe, appreciate that.
We now will turn to another breaking story out of Germany where people -- were police say two people have been killed in two shootings in the eastern
city of Halle. They say shots rang up out at a synagogue killing a woman.
Now in a second attack, police say a gunman opened fire at a kebab shop killing a man. Police have arrested one person.
[09:55:08]
NEWTON: It has been a busy morning for our Nic Robinson there in London. I know that you were following this. What do we know? Because it does
seem quite confusing in terms of the details we've had from police so far.
ROBERTSON: Well, what we now know is that this is being taken very, very seriously in Germany. I mean, the police in the city are calling it a
rampage. But this has now gone to the Public Prosecutor General, which means, you know, a higher authority has taken an interest in this.
And they've taken an interest because they call it a case of murder and special significance. And it is also at the moment, I have to add, it's
not clear that this is over yet by any stretch of the imagination, because we've heard from the government spokesman was said that he hopes that the
security services can catch the suspect or suspects and wants people to take special care.
And I raise that because what we know that happened after these two shootings, and I'll go back to some of the details on those in a moment, an
hour after those two shootings, a few kilometers outside of the town of Halle in a smaller village, a car was hijacked by one or more assailants.
Two people were injured while that car was hijacked.
Now, it's not yet clear to us if these two things were linked, but what we are seeing, the reaction from German authorities is to take these two
murders so far and the injuries as well, to take it very, very seriously.
Now, eyewitnesses told us where the woman was shot outside the synagogue, a man was seen throwing grenades over and he was also at the kebab shop,
shot, opened fire on a half a dozen people inside the shop.
NEWTON: Nic, thank you so much for keeping track of that story. As you said the German authorities have a lot on their hands to deal with right
now, and we continue of course to also follow the story of the Turkish incursion into Syria. It has started.
Our Becky Anderson will have "CONNECT THE WORLD" after this short break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:00:00]
END
