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First Move with Julia Chatterley

The E.C.B. Unveils An $800 Billion Asset Buying Plan, And Yet More Is Needed; China Says No New Local Infections Of Coronavirus In The Last 24 Hours; Unprecedented Global At Home Use Make Streaming Shows In High Definition Now A Threat. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired March 19, 2020 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:10]

JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN ANCHOR: Live from New York, I'm Julia Chatterley. This is FIRST MOVE, and here's your need to know.

Whatever it takes, for as long as is needed. The E.C.B. unveils an $800 billion asset buying plan, and yet more is needed.

A pivotal moment. China says no new local infections of coronavirus in the last 24 hours.

And breaking the internet. Unprecedented global at home use make streaming shows in high definition now a threat. It's Thursday. Let's make a move.

Welcome to FIRST MOVE everyone. Great to have you with us. It is the first day of spring and oh boy, are we in need of some green shoots here.

So step forward, the European Central Bank shooting a $750 billion plus bazooka, a new asset buying plan they announced at around midnight last

night and the real kicker here, they basically said, as I mentioned, they will buy anything, if that's what it takes.

And, guys, as I've been saying, that's what tackling this crisis is going to take. Look for the message once again in the markets. The midnight

announcement lent a bit of support to some very fragile stock markets.

You can see red arrows beside, U.S. futures are right now lower. The key is bond yields. This is what was happening in Europe, they all lower, and

that's what we need to focus on.

Just imagine the stress being placed on the economies on small businesses in Italy and Spain, just to pick two at this moment with that whole nation

on lockdown.

These nations need to borrow. High borrowing costs is simply not going to help, so we have to see these bond yields come down.

All of this following another six percent drop yesterday. The Dow now down some 32 percent from all-time highs, and it begins the session, the Dow

below 20,000. But these numbers at this moment are pretty irrelevant.

Let me give you some more sobering statistics, 63 percent of companies in the S&P 500 have fallen 50 percent or more this year. Sixteen stocks in the

index have plunged 70 percent or more.

The bottom line, investors are simply being forced to sell good companies with the bad. Good assets with the bad. They're dumping safe haven

Treasuries.

People are now hoarding the U.S. dollar. They're pulling huge amounts from the money markets. Now, the Federal Reserve is trying to fight this latest

fire with a new facility announced overnight. The problem is all this pressure backs up, and this pressure is virtually global.

This is the key. When investors are selling like this, Central Banks need to be buying and governments -- government need to be supporting, too

because in the end, it's the most vulnerable in society that will pay the highest price. Again, more work is needed. Let's get to the drivers.

Christine Romans joins me now. Christine, another sobering start to my show. But it's a realist. It's being a realist. People are talking about

the fact the country countries are going into recession. I'm more comfortable using the term potential depression at this stage if support --

more support -- isn't forthcoming.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Yes. And you have so many economists and market strategists who are sharpening their

pencils again and lowering their forecasts for the second quarter.

I mean, you're seeing 10 percent contraction, 12 percent contraction forecast, and most people are saying that if governments and Central Banks

can get it right, things turn around and you reboot the economy, the global economy later this year again.

But that is making the big assumption that the stimulus, the fiscal and monetary policy is right. It's big and it's bold, and it's right.

On the micro level, you see right now, people are feeling this. The most vulnerable, as you put it, so rightly, are feeling this. We saw a surge in

jobless claims, the state jobless claims, some of these states seeing tens of thousands of jobless claims just in the past few days.

Those are people who've lost their jobs and leisure, in hospitality, at bars and restaurants and hotels, and are going to have to be on jobless

benefits, unemployment benefits that are not in many cases, exactly what they were earning before.

So you're seeing the stress on families and workers already.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, I mean, you know, I can throw more stats into this and I know you know these statistics well, but we keep talking about the big

major markets.

The S&P 500, it's only 15 percent of the employment in the United States. The rest of them are working in small and medium-sized enterprises.

[09:05:10]

CHATTERLEY: There's people clearly that aren't working. At this stage, the mammoth task that's required here, the inequality in this system that makes

the most vulnerable so at risk here is being revealed in the space of two weeks.

ROMANS: It really is. And you know, and I think back to 2008-2009, and a similar conversation was happening. Get the money out there. It doesn't

even matter how you spend it. Get it out there so that we can support these industries and get the banking system whole again and keep the airlines

from going out of business, et cetera et cetera.

But the income inequality and the fragility of the bottom -- the bottom quintiles of the income strata are the same today as they were back then.

We didn't fix some of those things.

And I worry and this is maybe too big a picture at a time of a crisis, but you know, we squander the good times, as Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan Chase

likes to say, you know, you fix the roof while the sun is shining. We didn't do that. We spent more money. Blew up a deficit. Gave tax cuts that

weren't paid for, right?

And then when the times are bad, you're blowing up deficit, spending a lot of money again, right, without maybe fixing some of the fundamental

inefficiencies of the system, and I think that that's sort of a sad commentary 10 years, 11 years after the last crisis to be making some --

maybe making some of the same mistakes again.

CHATTERLEY: And you know what, Christine, I couldn't agree more with you. The buybacks, the tax benefits the people didn't deserve and have spent

incorrectly -- everything -- all of these things, the focus or lack of focus on the environment, all these things matter. They simply don't matter

today because we don't have time. We don't have time to argue over the details.

ROMANS: Right.

CHATTERLEY: Christine, thank you.

ROMANS: Replay the tape.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, we'll come back to it, I hope, but for now, throw money at the situation just to shore up everything. Thank you.

All right. A few more fiscal stimulus, the European Central Bank has unveiled its own, worth more than $800 billion to cushion the coronavirus

blow to business.

Anna Stewart joins us now. Anna, I know you've been looking at the details. This was a midnight European Time announcement. They couldn't even wait

until the weekend here.

It's not even about the size though, for me here from the European Central Bank. It's how open ended this is.

ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: I think it really took everyone by surprise, not least that the E.C.B. has finally stepped up.

There was a general feeling that not enough was done at the meeting last week and they join similar measures from the U.K., Japan, Canada,

Switzerland, the U.S., of course, over $800 billion in this what they're calling the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, essentially QE at vast

scale lasting until the end of the year.

And as you said, crucially, it's the fact of the assets. It's not just the usual suspects. We're talking all sorts of public and private debt, even

Greek debt. This is the first time that Greek debt has been included in an E.C.B. stimulus program, a QE program since the financial crisis. So that

is absolutely crucial.

Bonds have rallied. There has been a good reaction. It has landed well. We've seen yields which of course go inversely drop. The Italian 10-year

down at 1.4 percent, Greek down over three percent. And also it's what happens next.

The ECB is also considering other things. Could it lift limits on buying only a third of a country's sovereign debt? Economists trying to get even

further ahead. Will we see the E.C.B. impose caps on some sovereign bond yields? So plenty more to come. It does seem to be settling some investor

concern.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, Anna. This for me actually is very illuminating and a message to other Central Banks and to other governments.

We all watched how Europe struggled with the European debt crisis. We know we're not going to save them. No, we aren't. Yes, we are. This is them

saying throw all of that out of the window, rescue this system. That's the message here.

STEWART: And the shift in tone, Julia, from that meeting with the E.C.B. last week with Christine Lagarde.

I mean, honestly, the shift in tone is extraordinary. Last week, it was about putting more pressure on governments to introduce their own fiscal

policies. Yes, that is critical and it has to be coordinated.

But also we need to see more from the Central Banks, from the E.C.B. Some of the comments that Christine Lagarde made last week were considered

unhelpful.

For instance, she said, it's not the Central Bank's job to close the spread in bond markets. I want to show you a tweet from the last 24 hours from

Christine Lagarde, she says, "Extraordinary times require extraordinary action. There are no limits to our commitment to the euro. We are

determined to use the full potential of our tools within our mandate."

[09:10:00]

STEWART: It's so early, Julia, in her ECB career and already I think we're having a Draghi-whatever-it-takes moment.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, I agree with the first sentence. I disagree with the second sentence. This is about something way bigger than the euro. This is

about something way bigger than just the euro.

Anna, great job. Thank you. Anna Stewart there.

Now, time perhaps for a glimmer of light. We could be seeing a major turning point in the battle against the coronavirus.

For the first time, China says no new locally transmitted cases were diagnosed in the past 24 hours.

Authorities say they counted 34 new infections, but say all of them were people entering China from abroad.

David Culver is live in Shanghai for us. David, that last sentence there concerns me greatly, but talk to me about the details, assuming we trust

the information, but tell me the details because I think we need to hear this.

DAVID CULVER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The sourcing of all of this is important to keep in mind, Julia. It is data that comes from the National Health

Commission from China. But we also need to stress the World Health Organization has relied on this data. And President Trump was even asked

about it just last week and said that as far as he is concerned, the numbers seem to be positive and look to be trending in the right direction.

So he seems to be relying on it as well.

But yes, this is all coming from China, and they're saying no new locally transmitted cases. That is a major milestone, and certainly significant in

the turnaround of this outbreak and their control of it, so it seems.

But your point on this 34 increase of really imported cases is how they're describing it. What does that mean? All right, that means folks who are

coming from outside of China, coming here into the People's Republic.

And so you go back just a few weeks, and we can think of when everyone else internationally was focused on anyone traveling from Mainland China and was

really concerned and putting in travel bans.

Now, it seems that China is worried about all the other countries and travelers coming back here, potentially bringing with them the virus and

exposing others.

So what are they doing? Well, within Beijing's Capital International Airport, they have set up strict screening that requires all international

travelers to go through a screening and evaluation process. They then will be required to spend 14 days in a government designated facility before

they can then continue on to their final destination either within Beijing or within other parts of Mainland China.

We're also seeing interestingly enough, Julia that while these numbers are looking positive, China is moving forward with increasing hospital capacity

according to the World Health Organization, and they're also continuing in requesting the manufacturing of ventilators.'

So it seems to suggest that they are keeping their minds on a potential spike or second wave, if you will, once restrictions start to ease because

go to Wuhan, the epicenter of all of this, and there still is the extreme lockdown measure in place.

I mean, these folks are basically sealed inside their homes. It's eight weeks ago today that that lockdown went into place. So that's eight weeks

that they've been in that situation. So you can imagine mental health is certainly being tried at this point and they're feeling it.

But at the same time, the government and local officials in particular are really concerned as to when you ease up on these restrictions, and people

start to move around, thereby potentially increasing the risk of more exposure around the country.

So that's why they're keeping hospital capacity at an increased state right now, while they've closed the field hospitals, the designated hospitals are

still in place. And they're going to potentially use that space to treat any influx as they're ultimately trying to get back to business because

that's what this is going to be about, too.

You've got to think about restarting the economy here and it's going to require people to really get all together.

CHATTERLEY: David, there was so much in there, but your point there about the length of time we're talking about circles back to all the support

measures, the economic damage and what's required to try and suppress this that we've already been discussing on the show.

Great to have you with us. Thank you for that.

All right, the E.U. has urged Netflix to slow streaming or risk breaking the internet. The web under unprecedented strain as hundreds of millions of

people log on from home, working from home, of course, but also streaming movies just trying to entertain themselves.

Hadas Gold joins me now. It's understandable, Hadas. We've sort of been thinking about this, I think for the last week. We've never seen use like

this. People working from home, people watching movies from home.

HADAS GOLD, CNN BUSINESS REPORTER: Yes, Julia. I am right now streaming live to CNN from my living room and I'm just one person, so multiply me by

perhaps hundreds of millions of people who are working from home, whose kids are also at home trying to do distance learning, or perhaps just

trying to entertain themselves watching movies on streaming services.

And now the E.U. and E.U. Commissioner, Thierry Breton who is in charge of the E.U. internal markets has warned services like Netflix and people in

general to please switch to standard definition. This is what we know as SD, instead of high definition because high definition takes up a lot more

bandwidth than standard definition.

[09:15:10]

GOLD: In fact, Breton said that he has had conversations with Netflix CEO Reed Hastings yesterday. He is set to have another one with him today to

try to urge pretty much these streaming services to force their customers to do SD because of the fear of the strain on the infrastructure.

Now, as far as we can tell, although there is a huge increase in people, obviously, using the internet, using the infrastructure, there hasn't been

any sort of outages or breakdowns.

But the fear is that as we continue day by day, and as more and more people sign on, I'm sure lots of people are signing on for new streaming services,

they're buying video games, they're doing all of these things that are putting extra weight on the system that typically most of us would be in

our offices or the students would be in school. It's not used to this type of strain.

And that's why there is a fear that as this continues to go on, possibly for weeks, possibly for months, there needs to be some sort of change in

the system so that it can continue to support all of us as we try to continue with some sort of semblance of normal life -- Julia.

CHATTERLEY: I know. If it weren't so serious and the situation is so serious, I would say it's quite exciting to look inside people's homes,

these moments and just look at your setup.

But yes, no time for that. Hadas Gold, great job. Thank you so much for that.

All right, you're watching FIRST MOVE. Our coverage of the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on the global economy will continue after the

break.

But first, a warning for young people everywhere from the White House's top coronavirus doctor. Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. DEBORAH BIRX, WHITE HOUSE CORONAVIRUS COORDINATOR: There are concerning reports coming out of France and Italy, about some young people

getting seriously ill. It may have been that the millennial generation, our largest generation, our future generation that will carry us through for

the next multiple decades, there may be disproportional number of infections among that group.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:20:04]

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. Deutsche Bank's disturbing projections for a forthcoming global recession. It's predicting a real GDP

contraction in the second quarter by 24 percent in the Euro Area. That includes a 28 percent contraction in Germany and 13 percent in the United

States.

Let's just give you some context because they do. U.S. growth declined eight percent in a single quarter during the Great Recession of 1980, and

the Global Financial Crisis.

Deutsche Bank itself put it like this, "The uncertainty bands around these projections are even wider than they were previously. These numbers are

significantly beyond the range of modern historical experience."

On the phone, Peter Hooper who is the Global Head of Economic Research at Deutsche Bank. He spent 26 years at the Federal Reserve Board and was an

economist on the FOMC. Peter, I'm very grateful that you're joining us this morning.

These numbers look bad, and my fear is that given what you're saying about the band of uncertainty here, it could be even worse.

PETER HOOPER, GLOBAL HEAD OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, DEUTSCHE BANK (via phone): Julia, absolutely. Certainly tremendous. And certainly, we're hopeful that

things do not turn out this badly. But we could certainly see a worse outcome.

We have the benefit now of seeing what's happened in China already. They're several months ahead of us. We had a plunge in consumer spending in China.

We think that their GDP declined in the first -- is declining in the first quarter at a rate of 10 percent at a quarterly rate, 35 percent at an

annual rate. Tremendous, tremendous impact there.

This is what caused us over the past weekend to revise our view to something much, much more negative for the overall global economy.

China had the benefit of keeping people in their jobs while this output loss was occurring. Government -- the government basically funded companies

to allow people to keep their jobs. That's not happening in the U.S.

We saw this morning a significant increase in jobless claims. We're likely over the weeks ahead to see millions of people losing their jobs with these

kinds of output declines.

CHATTERLEY: We have to.

HOOPER: Fortunately, the government is getting the message. We're talking about huge stimulus packages. But they have to be well designed.

We need to have job loss support for people who lose their jobs. We really have to beef up our unemployment benefits.

We also have to beef up tremendously our support for small businesses. I mean, the best thing we can do is fund small businesses to allow people to

keep their jobs through this crisis, whether it lasts weeks or months, and I have to say that the assumptions underlying our forecast for a couple

months of this.

Yes, things could be better. But one can also imagine scenarios that would be a lot worse.

CHATTERLEY: Peter, I'm just trying to get a sense of the scale of stimulus, whether its Central Bank, whether it's government spending that's

required to bridge a gap, an effective shutdown of not just the United States economy for two to three months, potentially.

But given everything else that's going on in the world, you gave some charts, and you don't even need to see the numbers. My viewers don't need

to see the numbers. They are V-shaped. They're looking at a V-shaped recovery, which most people think is just impossible at this stage.

How much more stimulus support, spending money is required? I mean, I've been throwing numbers around like three, four, five trillion dollars of

economic stimulus. Throw cash at people, to your point, a Treasury Fund for SME lending.

It's too big for me to imagine what's required here and yet we need to do it and we need to do it fast.

HOOPER: Absolutely. Our forecast is a V because we assume that there will be massive government support coming on stream and then it will be --

CHATTERLEY: Define massive.

HOOPER: It be will be allocated intelligently. There are -- there is talk now in Congress of adding to the package, they're now passing another

trillion dollars in support. That's five percent of GDP.

CHATTERLEY: It's not enough, Peter.

HOOPER: We assume that that much is coming from the U.S. If we don't get it --

CHATTERLEY: How much more is required?

HOOPER: We are looking at a more prolonged downturn.

CHATTERLEY: How much more is required Peter? Just $1 trillion to me is a drop in the ocean.

[09:25:00]

HOOPER: A trillion dollars, five percent of GDP, if it is spent wisely, if we support small business, if we support people who are losing their jobs,

if we put it where it's going to be most needed, this can help tide us over.

CHATTERLEY: Peter, I want to draw as well in your experience at the FOMC, at the Federal Reserve, what we saw the European Central Bank doing

overnight was saying, we will buy anything, if that is what is required.

I look at the Federal Reserve and they simply don't have the mandate for that. They can't buy other debt products. They can't buy equities if that's

what's required.

I know I'm talking in extremes here. What's the probability do you think, given what we're seeing globally and the stresses on the system that the

rules are forced to change?

HOOPER: The Fed during the financial crisis did set up a number of different types of lending facilities to get cash out to the private sector

through loans using collateral.

I think things could be bad enough here that we might even see Congress entertain changing the Federal Reserve Act to allow them to do more of the

sort of thing that the European Central Bank is doing to purchase more private assets to support the private sector.

But one way or another, there is no question in my mind that the Fed is going -- it is all out. And yes, this morning, that analysis by the E.C.B.

is most impressive. This is -- we'll do what it takes.

CHATTERLEY: Peter, the fact that you're even discussing changing the Fed Act here and seeing that and I agree with you, I think it's what's going to

be required gives me goosebumps.

Peter, great to have you with us. Peter Hooper, the Global Head of Economic Research there at Deutsche Bank. The market opens next. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:30:00]

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. You saw the opening bell there from the New York Stock Exchange, one of the last ones for a while.

The New York Stock Exchange is going to be closing its trading floor temporarily next week to help protect New York Stock Exchange workers from

the coronavirus.

Just to be clear the trading will be done digitally. It will be done by computers. This is not about the Stock Exchange closing. It will continue

to trade. Very, very important. That's a look at how the markets are trading. It is a weaker open on Wall Street.

Nowhere near as bad though as yesterday when we were fearing another 15- minute trading halt. What we need to see is a slowdown and the intense indiscriminate selling pressure that's overtaken equity markets, but also

other asset classes. We've been talking about this.

We're even seeing some buying in bonds and yesterday, we saw pressure on equities and we saw pressure on bonds, too.

At this moment, we're seeing bond yields falling a little bit so that means some buying activity going on in bonds and that's an important sign as

well.

Demand though, for the safe haven, U.S. dollar has been intense. The Dollar Index hitting three-year highs making big gains against virtually all other

currencies, and this makes sense in this kind of an environment. You go to the world's reserve currency and that remains the U.S. dollar.

Now, the European Central Bank announced stimulus in excess of $800 billion in the latest of such announcements coming from global Central Banks.

As we've been reporting, several European governments now -- take a look at these numbers -- are committing to rescue packages that equal up to 20

percent of their entire GDP. That's the message that European nations are sending.

Anthony Scaramucci is Founder and Managing Partner at Skybridge Investment firm. He's also former White House communications director.

Anthony, great to have you with us. I know you get it. I know you get what's going on in the financial sector. You can see what's going on in the

economy. You also know it's global, because I watch your social media and your Twitter handle.

We're on the same page. You're talking three, four, five, maybe more trillion dollars thrown at this system. Talk me through it.

ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI, FOUNDER AND MANAGING PARTNER, SKYBRIDGE: Yes. Well, okay, so let's just step back. This is literally like a combination of

9/11, the Global Financial Crisis, and an invasion of every nation's homeland.

And so, when you step back and look at it from that perspective, the United States was spending -- in deficit spending during the 1940s, during the war

between 20 and 26 percent of GDP.

So what I'm calling for is we're putting a trillion dollars on now pro forma, adding another $3.2 trillion. That gets you to 20 percent of the

GDP, Julia.

And if you go through the math, and you look at the per unit, per capita consumption of each individual in the United States, then you're going to

need about six months' worth of firepower here. You can get out $3,000.00 to each adult, $1,500.00 to each child. You can have a tax furlough for a

period of time.

And then you could create an accordion like structure for companies, large and small companies, whether it's Boeing or your local barber shop. They

can come up with either a loan program or a grant program to try to keep these businesses on life support until the quarantine passes.

And so, if we don't do that, I was listening to your last conversation. I'm in agreement with you. I think the trillion dollars is a drop in the

bucket, five percent of GDP is about six weeks' worth of firepower and we need something like six months' worth of firepower.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, we need extreme at this stage. Earlier on in the show I was talking about the revealing of the lack of support, any form of social

safety net here to contain this kind of overnight switch off.

And a lot of -- I see the debate out there and I think they're missing the point is that you can't bail out big companies. You can't do this. They've

been buying back stocks. No time for that, quite frankly.

You also have -- and I completely agree with you -- measures to try and tackle some of that. Save the system. Shore poor companies. But you're

saying stop buybacks. Stop bonuses. Suspend dividends for five years.

SCARAMUCCI: Yes, well, I am saying --

CHATTERLEY: Yes, go ahead.

SCARAMUCCI: Right, exactly. If those companies need to come into the government capital markets for capital, then they have to agree that they

can't do share buybacks or dividends for a long period of time until of course that money is paid back.

[09:35:02]

SCARAMUCCI: And then they also have to add that they can't lay off their employees. And so we can fix this thing. It is a seismic moment for Western

democracies right now.

We have been agonizing over the gap in wealth over the last, let's say two decades. This is an opportunity -- in America, we would call it a bailout

of Main Street as opposed to Wall Street.

And I just want to remind everybody, this is not a financial crisis. This is a totally different event. This is a consumption depression. This is a

decline in aggregate demand that we have not seen in the modern era.

You can't even go back to the 1929-1933 depression and look at data that we're looking at right now for the second and possibly third quarter.

So, the United States, other Western democracies have to come in here and bail out the local barber, bailout the local deli or coffee shop and try to

keep a line of credit available or a grant available for restaurants and things like that.

If we do not do this, you will have a situation where you'll have 20 to 25 percent unemployment. A lot of these small businesses, the great tragedy in

America and perhaps in other parts of the West, and maybe around the world as people are living paycheck to paycheck.

CHATTERLEY: Right.

SCARAMUCCI: I mean, these small businesses, they're living weekly revenues to weekly revenues.

CHATTERLEY: And the difference between now and the financial crisis and our state's financial crisis on steroids and steroids are on steroids is

that there's no counterbalance. This is global.

There's no part of the world even as we see China coming out that's providing any form of stability here. We're all going through it and it's

happening at a far more accelerated rate than we've ever seen before.

I want to talk about tariffs, because we still have tariffs, Anthony, on medical supplies coming from China, which I agree the asymmetries between

China and the United States needs tackling.

But at this moment, I cannot understand why we don't remove those given the crisis that's going on in the healthcare system right now.

SCARAMUCCI: Listen, you know, the President has changed his tune, so, I certainly don't want to be as critical as I was being about the President.

But if you read his campaign letters, I'm still on the mailing list, they are trying to position this as a Chinese virus, and it's us versus China

and they're going to campaign off of that.

And so they don't want to take the tariffs off, and I just think this is a really poor time to come up with a campaign strategy and to put people at

risk if they need medical supplies, and whether we like it or not, we made manufacturing decisions over five decades to move almost all of our

manufacturing to China.

So I think it's a mistake. They should have an emergency program to lift those tariffs right now and continue to figure out ways to provide relief

in an overwhelming way.

People talk about a bazooka on Wall Street. I'm talking about a green tsunami -- green being money -- that waves over the United States and

fortifies the United States and alleviates the anxiety that so many middle and lower middle class people feel in this country right now.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, I wasn't sorry. I wasn't trying to make it about politics. It's a call to action from Congress. We need a Marshall Plan here

to tackle it.

SCARAMUCCI: Yes, no. But I'm just saying the President is not going to move on that because he's fighting he's -- he is pitting himself against

China.

CHATTERLEY: I get it.

SCARAMUCCI: His most recent campaign letter said that Joe Biden is with China.

CHATTERLEY: I know. There's not going to be an election in a depression if we don't fix this now. Anthony Scaramucci. Great to have you with us. Thank

you so much.

SCARAMUCCI: Great to be with you. Thanks for having me.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, we're on the same page. Thank you. All right, let's bring in John Defterios because he's been looking at what's been going on in the

markets right now.

John, join me. I know you were listening to that discussion. We're seeing the tension playing out within the financial markets, the dollar hoarding,

the concerns ongoing in equities and bonds. It's a message here to policymakers that more is required.

JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN BUSINESS EMERGING MARKETS EDITOR: Yes, it's interesting to see some of the cross currents that are taking place, Julia,

with the rush to the dollar. It is almost the 2020 version of putting money under the mattress yet again.

We do see the Euro more stable after this latest package coming from the European Central Bank. There is a natural tendency to go to the Japanese

yen. The pound is trading right near 1985 low and that's because of the seizure of the economy taking place here and the reaction or perhaps late

reaction by Boris Johnson.

You know, it's fascinating to watch. We see Christine Lagarde acting like Super Mario saying we will do whatever it takes, and I was thinking in the

context of when we had this discussion going back over a month ago, the initial reaction was to compare this to the SARS of 2003, the coronavirus

is much worse.

Same thing is to compare it to the global financial crisis of 2009 and 2010. This is in a completely different scale. I just listened to your last

conversation.

[09:40:10]

DEFTERIOS: I couldn't agree with you more with the amount of money that's going to be needed to be injected here to restore confidence because it's

not about the banking system. This is a consumer strike because they're looking like deers and the headlights right now.

We have entire sectors that are under water, and there's no transportation in the cities. So the consumers can't even move about and get back to work.

It is the desperate situation.

And unlike 2010, where we have this collaboration with the emerging markets, we could tap into the wealth that China had. Everybody is facing a

severe storm.

And the collaboration that we used to have in the G-20 is not there right now, Julia. And this is why investors keep on running for the exits despite

what the Central Banks around the world are doing.

And that's the scary part, because the scale is nothing like what we saw in 2009 and 2010.

CHATTERLEY: I couldn't agree more. There's no counterbalance. There's no counterweight here. John, great job. Thank you -- and a beautiful backdrop

thereto with my earlier point on the show. Great to have you with us. Thank you.

All right. Coming up on FIRST MOVE. We'll take a closer look at this year's top political risks, the geopolitics of this coronavirus situation. How can

institutions leaders address it better? Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. A political risk firm, the Eurasia Group has just released its top risks for 2020 as world leaders struggle to

contain the coronavirus pandemic.

The GZERO Media Group President, Ian Bremmer joins us now. Ian, fantastic to have you on the show. It's a kind of combination of all the risks you

warned about going on at quick speed. Institutional weakness, weak and dysfunctional leadership, de-globalization, inequality -- all thrown in

here pressured by a global health crisis.

[09:45:04]

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, GZERO MEDIA: I mean, it could be worse.

CHATTERLEY: Really? Tell me why.

BREMMER: Well, yes, in the sense that the underlying economics as well as the strength of the financial system is actually greater than it was in

2008 going into the Great Recession.

The problem is that the politics are incredibly dysfunctional. The resilience in terms of institutions, the polarization inside countries, the

weakness of traditional alliances, and also the broad geopolitical confrontation, particularly between the U.S. and China, all makes it so

much harder to get leadership to respond effectively to this crisis as it rolls across the globe.

CHATTERLEY: Let's stick with the United States to begin. Do you think the gravity of the situation and what's required here to simply protect

individuals, workers, the system, however, relative strength we have today versus what we had in the global financial crisis is there? Are they

understanding the gravity?

BREMMER: We are late. So I certainly believe that Congress, the Fed, and now even the administration understands the scale of what needs to be done

economically and financially to ensure that the banking system functions, that sectors are bailed out as the economy grinds to a halt on both the

supply and the demand side, I believe that that is going to happen.

But that is very different from the healthcare system, from the absence of tests, from the ability to ensure that cities don't get overwhelmed by the

explosion of cases creating panic and a level of social disorder.

I do think that what we have seen in Northern Italy including in Milan, which is one of the best run, best infrastructure cities in the world.

You've seen what's happened in the last week. I think that scenario is coming to some urban centers across the country. And obviously, it's very

painful to see that in the United States.

CHATTERLEY: It's interesting that you mentioned social unrest. I mean, that's projecting forward for me just several weeks based on conditions,

based on fear, based on a lack of support network in this country, never mind anywhere else, and I'm sorry to keep bringing it back to the United

States. But this is just one part of a far broader global issue that we see.

I want to hone in on some tweets that you sent out about China and we talked about this earlier on in the show, since the World Health

Organization began calling coronavirus a pandemic, 120,000 people a day have entered China. The quarantine begins tomorrow. Terribly alarming.

But also to the point that you were just making there about Italy. We're looking at a situation where Italian deaths are going to exceed China.

Italy population 60 million, China 1.4 billion. Ian, like the dysfunction, the enormity of what we're seeing here is just astonishing.

BREMMER: Well, I think let me put it in broader context to you. Of course, we don't necessarily trust those Chinese numbers, but irrespective, the

scale of what is happening, the damage inside Italy, and what we are likely to experience across parts of the U.S. is so much graver than what we have

in China right now.

It's so different than the 2008 crisis. Coming out of that, the United States was taking the lead. We coordinated a G-20 head of state meeting for

the first time ever and led coordination politically and economically to ensure there wasn't a Great Depression. And all the countries in the world,

our allies and our adversaries recognized that the United States was the Safe Harbor in the storm. They needed to align with us.

That is not what's happening here. What you're seeing happening in Italy, what you're seeing happening in the United States shows poor leadership. It

shows a lack of comparative resilience, political resilience to crisis, while the Chinese are now announcing for the first day that they don't

actually have any human to human transmissions inside China.

Again, I don't necessarily believe that data. But, I certainly do believe that the Chinese are a lot more confident domestically and internationally

at a time where Americans are questioning their political system, at a time when our allies are questioning America's ability and willingness to lead.

That does mean that coming out of this crisis in a few months or later, the global environment is going to be very different than what we're used to

here in the United States, what you're used to across the western world.

[09:50:05]

CHATTERLEY: Yes, the big question is, can we pull together here because on top of what we're seeing in terms of economic depression terms, there's

also a health crisis that the reason why we're doing this in the first place.

Ian, we'll get you back to discuss this. Ian Bremmer there. Sir, thank you so much for joining us with your perspective and what a chair behind you.

It is throne-like, I noticed. We'll see you soon.

All right, more on how the markets are responding to today's risks in just a moment. Stay with us. You're on FIRST MOVE.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. Richard Quest joins us. So Richard, I know you were listening to that conversation there. You and I

think understand the gravity, the scale of response that's required to foster recovery when we come to the other side of this. The question is,

can we all come together to fight it, as Ian Bremmen there was saying.

RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS ANCHOR, QUEST MEANS BUSINESS: I think that's going to be very difficult. I think the most important aspect of what I

think you were talking about is this idea that a recovery is going to happen.

This morning, I think I heard you saying, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. We just don't know how long that tunnel is going to be. What

other obstacles there will be.

But let's be clear about this. I mean, Boeing may be trading at under 100 bucks, but the core issue is going to be for governments all around the

world is which of your companies and which of your industries must you save?

You are going to be -- they are going to be put in the difficult position of choosing between the children and not everybody will be able to be

saved.

So how do you save? How do you bail out? Whatever pejorative you want -- how do you save those elements of the economy that are going to be vital

when we come out of it?

CHATTERLEY: Wow, Richard, I'm not sure I agree. I think that we don't have time to pick and choose. I think we have to flood the system, put in

protections for the workers that are going to lose their jobs, set a Treasury Fund up to give money to small and medium-sized enterprises.

I just -- I think that we just have to do whatever we can to shore up the system, and then you penalize those that need the support later on. We just

have to protect everything for the next two to three months.

QUEST: I think that's desirable, Julia, but I don't know that it's possible. I think at the ultimate end, you're going to -- you're going to

have to make some very hard decisions, otherwise, you are -- and it's a perfectly valid point, you are bailing out everyone. And if you're prepared

to do that, that's a luxurious position to be in.

CHATTERLEY: I'm just afraid if you don't do that, then the people that get crushed most are the weakest in society. The most vulnerable, and we will

continue to debate about this. I know we will.

[09:55:05]

QUEST: Yes.

CHATTERLEY: I think what the European Central Bank did overnight for me and just saying, we will buy anything, we will support this system at

whatever cost. I think we need to see that from the Federal Reserve, even if it means it could potentially be weaponized by rogue leadership.

QUEST: You've stated it -- it gets weaponized. This is an election year in the U.S. As soon as -- I promise you this, as soon as we see the curve

peak, there will be back to politics as normal.

This country has little capacity for managing to avoid that, particularly at a time of an election.

CHATTERLEY: It's a global crisis, Richard.

QUEST: Yes. With national politics.

CHATTERLEY: Always. Richard Quest. Thank you so much.

QUEST: Thank you.

CHATTERLEY: All right. That just about wraps up the show. We are weaker for these markets. Richard will be back in two hours' time with "The

Express" to keep you abreast of further developments on the coronavirus outbreak and beyond.

You've been watching FIRST MOVE. Take care of yourselves and we'll see you tomorrow.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:00:00]

END