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First Move with Julia Chatterley
Stocks Slip on Recovery Fears and Political Risk; Disney Says No Big Movie Releases Now Until 2021; California Governor Calls for All Cars to be Zero Emissions by 2035. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired September 24, 2020 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:18]
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN BUSINESS ANCHOR: Live from New York, I'm Julia Chatterley, this is FIRST MOVE and here is your need to know.
Uncertainty overload. Stocks slip on recovery fears and political risk.
Disney delays. No big movie releases now until 2021.
And California dreaming? The Governor calls for all cars to be zero emissions by 2035.
It's Thursday. Let's make a move.
A warm welcome as always to FIRST MOVE. Coming up on the show today, we are showcasing the role of science and technology in helping improve lives.
Queen Maxima of the Netherlands will join us to discuss how the United Nations is working with both the public and the private sector to foster
greater financial inclusion around the world.
Plus, I will be speaking to the CEO of the scientific data analytics firms Airfinity, a firm that tracks and compares standards in the global vaccine
race. Those standards, of course, so important.
But first, as always, U.S. futures, turning sharply lower in the past hour, a continuation of Wednesday's stock market pullback. That set the mood, I
think across the Asia session overnight. You can see it, Hong Kong falling to four-month lows. Tech once again led us lower. Apple, Amazon and Netflix
among the hardest hit. Tesla, in fact, as you can see there, tumbling more than 10 percent.
All are under pressure once again premarket. The S&P approaching correction territory, so what do we mean by that? We are near a 10 percent pullback
from recent highs. There is no shortage of reasons either.
High stock market valuations, concerns about a second wave of COVID infections, U.S. election uncertainty, too, and of course fading hopes here
in the United States, at least, of more financial support, despite pleas from several policy Fed makers yesterday.
In that vein, Goldman Sachs today slashing its fourth quarter U.S. growth forecast in half, now expecting just a three percent annualized GDP growth
number for the fourth quarter as a result.
All of this, amid word that a greater than expected 870,000 people signed up for first-time benefits last week in the United States. More than 26
million people still getting some form of government support.
As a result, what about the U.K.? Well, today announcing sweeping new measures to support workers, and more support is needed here and elsewhere,
too.
Let's get to the drivers. Christine Romans joins us now. Christine, the U.K. may have made a decision, but the United States simply can't, despite
the pleas from Federal Reserve policy makers this week. It was actually Richard Clarida that coined it best, I think. He said the recovery is
happening robustly, but we are still in a deep hole, and that's the key.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: And can you continue to have that recovery continue when you have so many people every
week filing for first-time unemployment benefits.
When you add to that devastating 870,000 first-time unemployment benefits, the people -- the self-employed people filing under pandemic insurance, you
have got 1.5 million people for the very first time going to their state unemployment office or the unemployment office and asking for help. That is
a real problem when you are trying to sustain a recovery here. So I am worried about the jobs part of the recovery.
You also have Congress that is going to be heading home until after the election without pandemic relief, without those shock absorbers so many of
these families need.
So we have heard from the Fed, we have heard from industries, like airlines, small business, hotel, anything related to travel, they are
asking for help, saying their industries are being devastated.
Millions of families who need help paying the bills and avoiding eviction, and still some talk that the recovery is under way, but fragile. It is a
kind of a dangerous moment here. Throw in political uncertainty in Washington, and it is a little nerve-racking to be frank.
CHATTERLEY: Let's throw that in then, because there are confusion and concerns about how long it takes to work out who the next President is
going to be and then President Trump last night throwing a level of confusion in the mix by seemingly refusing to hand over power. Just listen
to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We are going to have to see what happens, you know that. I have been complaining very strongly about
the ballots and the ballots are a disaster --
QUESTION: But people are rioting. Do you commit to making sure that there is a peaceful transferal of power?
TRUMP: No, we want to -- we want to -- you get rid of the ballots and you'll have a very trans -- we will have a very peaceful -- there won't be
a transfer frankly. There will be a continuation.
The ballots are out of control. You know it and you know who knows it better than anybody else? The Democrats know it better than anybody else.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[09:05:20]
CHATTERLEY: This is unprecedented. Markets we know and we discuss on a regular basis don't like uncertainty. I think there is a real nervousness
everywhere, outside of markets and beyond about what the next two, three, four months are going to bring.
ROMANS: We know that there could not be -- potentially there might not be a decision on Election Night. We have seen that before over periods of
history. You are not guaranteed to know who the new President will be on Election Night. It could take some time.
We have a lot of people who are afraid of going to cast their ballot on Election Day because of the pandemic, and that's a justifiable fear
depending where you live.
There are concerns about how rocky the process could be in some states. I will say it, CNN.com, we have an entire voter how-to guide for where you
live and what the process is where you live. So people need to really do their homework and figure out how to cast their ballot.
But a President casting doubt on the trust of the system and the validity of the process is the bedrock of American democracy is just unheard of.
I will say, back in 2000, there was a contested election, you'll remember. Markets handled it okay, but you had two leaders who were very careful in
their words, two candidates, I should say, who were very careful in their words, and there was trust, I think, in the process eventually that the
Supreme Court would get to a decision and it was accepted and there was a peaceful transfer of power.
But to not commit to a peaceful transfer of power is certainly something that on Wall Street, everyone is scratching their heads trying to figure
out what would that look like for business, for how the country runs and for investors.
CHATTERLEY: And in a pandemic. I read, I think it was an eight percent decline in 2000 over the unresolved election. But you make some great
points. I mean, we do an eight percent pullback in a few days in these markets, but --
ROMANS: Exactly.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, plenty of uncertainty. Christine Romans, thank you so much for that.
Disney leaving the film industry on a cliff hanger. The entertainment titan pushing back the release of a whole slate of movies into 2021. Paul La
Monica -- get my words out -- joins us now. Paul, great to have you with us.
It says a couple of things to me, one about the ability during a pandemic to bring people back into cinemas and two, perhaps, a decision over how
potent putting these releases on Disney Plus is. Let's talk about the first.
PAUL LA MONICA, CNN BUSINESS REPORTER: Yes, I think that when you look at Disney's decision, I think Disney was probably watching like the rest of
the industry very closely what was happening with "Tenet," the Warner Brothers movie -- our parent company owns that studio -- to see how it
would do.
And I think because there has been some concerns whether or not people are really willing to go back to movie theaters just yet, you saw Warner
Brothers already delay "Wonder Woman 1984," a highly anticipated movie in its DC franchise from October of this year to Christmas, and I think that's
really kind of set the stage for Disney to say, you know what, we aren't so sure even about November, and we don't want to probably put "Black Widow"
up against "Wonder Woman." So we are going to move that all the way into May, which is kind of the traditional start of the summer movie season
anyway, and hopefully, by next summer, things might be more normal.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, I mean, next summer is a long time for some of these movie companies, some of these cinemas to hang on in there, quite frankly, and
you saw that stock reaction yesterday where they all tumbled.
What does it also say though about Disney Plus, particularly in light of "Mulan"? We know it was a controversial movie. But we did see downloads.
How is that done and can we tell anything about this decision from what we saw with "Mulan"?
LA MONICA: Yes, I think really, what it comes down to with "Mulan" is that Disney had been steadfast from the beginning saying that this was a one-
time thing. Don't expect other highly anticipated theatrical releases to shift to Disney Plus especially because you have people wondering will
people really want to spend $30.00 to rent a movie, especially if it was going to be on Disney Plus in a couple of months after that for free.
But even though Disney have been saying it wasn't going to make "Black Widow" and other movies in its slate on Disney Plus the way it did with
"Mulan," I think people still were hopeful because, quite frankly, I want to see "Black Widow." I don't want to necessarily go to a movie theater to
see it any time soon, but I probably would rent it on Disney Plus, and I think a lot of other people felt the same way.
But with Disney, "Black Widow" is the next phase of the highly anticipated Marvel cinematic universe, where that franchise is heading, and I think
that you know, even though "Mulan" is a well-regarded movie based on a beloved animated classic, it's not really in the same league, so to speak,
as Marvel and that franchise with all of those super heroes, so I can understand why Disney wants to keep "Black Widow" as a theatrical event if
they can do that hopefully in May of 2021.
[09:10:26]
CHATTERLEY: Yes. We are not making the same comparison, and quite frankly, we are watching a lot more TV during the pandemic than we ever have before,
so we were allowed to be hopeful. And now, it has been vanquished.
Paul La Monica, thank you so much for that.
All right. Let me bring you up to speed now with some of the stories making headlines around the world.
Protests overnight in cities across the United States over the death of Breonna Taylor. The Kentucky Attorney General announced no murder charges
for any of the police officers involved in her killing in March. It is sparking outrage from her family and demonstrations demanding justice.
Brynn Gingras reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Say her name.
GROUP: Breonna Taylor.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRYNN GINGRAS, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): In cities across the nation, the sounds of Breonna Taylor's name echoing through the
streets.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What do we want?
GROUP: Justice.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GINGRAS (voice over): Here in Louisville, protesters crying out for justice from the day into the night, frustrated and outraged by a grand jury's
decision to make no direct charges in the fatal police shooting of the 26- year-old EMT killed in her home when three officers opened fire while executing a warrant during a narcotics investigation in March.
And as some demonstrations turned chaotic --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Officer down right there.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GINGRAS (voice over): Two Louisville Metro Police officers were shot Wednesday night.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERT SCHROEDER, INTERIM POLICE CHIEF, LOUISVILLE METRO POLICE: One is in alert and stable. The other officer is currently undergoing surgery and
stable. We do have one suspect in custody.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GINGRAS (voice over): None of the three Louisville Metro Police officers involved in Taylor's shooting face any charges related to her death.
But former detective Brett Hankison faces three charges of wanton endangerment in the first degree for firing bullets into a neighboring
apartment.
Sergeant John Mattingly and Detective Myles Cosgrove were not indicted on any charges.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DANIEL CAMERON, KENTUCKY STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL: If we simply act on emotion or outrage, there is no justice. Mob justice is not justice.
Breonna Taylor's death has become a part of a national story and conversation, but we must also remember the facts and the collection of
evidence in this case are different than cases elsewhere in the country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GINGRAS (voice over): The Kentucky Attorney General says Mattingly and Cosgrove identified themselves before breaking down Taylor's door.
Taylor's boyfriend, Kenneth Walker, who was there with her that night disputes that claim saying he fired a warning shot because police did not
identify themselves.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KENNETH WALKER, BREONNA TAYLOR'S BOYFRIEND: They refused to answer when we yelled, "Who is it?" Fifteen minutes later, Breonna was dead from a hail of
police gunfire.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GINGRAS (voice over): The Attorney General says an F.B.I. analysis that show Cosgrove fired the shot that killed Taylor, but a state investigation
was inconclusive on that point.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CAMERON: Because our investigation showed and the grand jury agreed that Mattingly and Cosgrove were justified in their return of deadly fire after
having been fired upon by Kenneth Walker.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GINGRAS (voice over): Mattingly's attorney writing in a statement, "The system worked," adding, "These officers did not act in a reckless or
unprofessional matter."
But for Taylor's family, their attorney say it is difficult to make sense of the ruling.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LONITA BAKER, ATTORNEY FOR BREONNA TAYLOR'S FAMILY: They are upset, justifiably, and we are upset and outraged at the decision that was made.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: Brynn joins us now from Louisville, Kentucky. Brynn, great to have you with us. Facts, justice, evidence. But clearly, people aren't
happy here. What next?
GINGRAS: Well, what's next is probably, Julia, another night of protests. We are here at Jefferson Square Park where the protest usually begin. This
is the Memorial that has been set up for months now. There is still a curfew in this city today and tomorrow night at least.
And as far as the investigation, well, people still want answers. That's why they are protesting. And it is possible there may be more that comes to
light.
We know that there is a civil suit that has been filed by Breonna Taylor's boyfriend, Kenneth Walker. The attorney hopes there will be some evidence
and some information to come out of those proceedings as that makes its way through the courts.
And then, of course, as we mentioned in the piece, Kentucky's Governor has said that he wants the transcripts of the grand jury proceedings to be
released if they do not conflict with the ongoing criminal case.
So we will see if that actually happens, although it doesn't seem like it will according to the A.G.'s news conference yesterday, and then separately
from that, there is an F.B.I. investigation and an internal investigation at Louisville PD.
So, we will see what comes out of Louisville in the coming months, maybe even years. But I can tell you that on the ground, we know the people here,
they are emotional. They are raw.
You saw the shootings of the two officers, and it is going to be a long time before this place can heal, if it ever does -- Julia.
[09:15:18]
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it is not over, by any means. Brynn, great to have you with us. Thank you for that. Brynn Gingras there.
All right, still to come on FIRST MOVE, how Fintech could help the world's poorest people weather the pandemic. We are joined by the Queen Maxima of
the Netherlands, special advocate on behalf of the U.N.'s Secretary General.
And clarity on the COVID vaccine. With every day, bringing you updates on trials and timelines, we will get data analysis. What we know and what we
don't. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. The economic consequences of the pandemic has been felt all over the world presenting huge challenges for
millions, but especially the most vulnerable in society, and those without access to the technologies that can help.
Her Majesty, Queen Maxima of the Netherland has been then U.N. Secretary General's Special Adviser on Financial Inclusion for Development since
2009. Her work has taken her to Ethiopia, Myanmar, Pakistan, South Africa among other places. And the good news is, huge progress has been made.
Since 2011, the number of people with a financial account has grown by again by 1.2 billion people. And yet, there are still 1.7 billion with no
access to a traditional form of banking.
Her Majesty, Queen Maxima joins us now. Your Majesty, fantastic to have you on the show. We have spelled out the progress, but also the challenges.
Could you just give us a sense of what you understand by financial inclusion and the benefits?
QUEEN MAXIMA OF THE NETHERLAND, U.N. SECRETARY GENERAL'S SPECIAL ADVOCATE: Well, thank you very much for having me today. Yes, financial inclusion is
something we have been working on more than ten years and we have actually seen a number of progress.
It looks like a railroad or looks like a road. It is the infrastructure that a country needs to have to be able to include everybody in an economic
system. It is the opportunity the make payments in a very cheap and efficient way.
[09:20:18]
QUEEN MAXIMA: It is a way to actually -- savings in a former way for a rainy day or to invest in your children's education. To be able to insure
yourself against risks, maybe health problems, maybe an accident. But above all, also, to be able to invest in opportunities and generate income.
So we have actually been working very hard with many countries having more than 50 countries around the globe having had our strategies for financial
inclusion and the financial technology is playing a very important role.
CHATTERLEY: I mean, its advantages and tools that many of us, not all of us, I will admit, but many of us in the developed world simply take for
granted.
If we look at what happened in light of COVID-19, a shift to digitization and those of us that could make digital payments did so. Others were left
in incredibly vulnerable situations and circumstances. What have you seen? And who are the most vulnerable?
QUEEN MAXIMA: Well, certainly, what started as a health crisis ended up very quickly in an economic crisis and a social crisis, and certainly, in
emerging countries, there is an issue of formality.
The people that work in the informal sector are extremely vulnerable because they do not have access to the formal things we all have and take
for granted like you just said.
And also, they don't have access to government safety nets. They don't have access to formal insurance services. And also, within that, daily wages,
for example, were the first ones to lose their jobs. Within that, the groups that have actually suffered the most, certainly are women. They
really have taken the big -- most amount of the burden on this issue. Small and medium-sized enterprises, and of course, all of those farmers and rural
people.
What we have actually seen in terms of SMEs is of course, they had to be shut down. Supply chains were actually disturbed, and we know from a survey
that two-thirds of SMEs around the world have actually seen a decrease in their sales, some of them to nearly 80 percent.
That meant that one-third of them had to reduce work force, which actually ends up in unemployment across the board.
In the case of women, this is even worse. You know, women that actually -- they have to have their own business to be able to survive. We know in Sub
Sahara Africa for example, 60 percent of women-owned businesses have seen a complete loss of their income, three times more loss of income than men.
So this is something we have to look into a lot more and the issue with women as well is because they are 25 percent less likely to own a phone or
have access to internet, they cannot really turn their businesses very quickly into a digital option having more access to markets or be able to
sell without contact. So they have actually suffered a lot more.
So these issues have been something we have been seeing across the board. And certainly, that's where our governments have actually jumped in to make
a lot of social payments and programs to, you know, being able to balance these problems.
CHATTERLEY: I mean, that's just an astonishing statistic. Women 25 percent less likely to own a phone or have internet access. I think that brings it
home to all of us in many ways.
There are positive cases, though, and I do want to talk about this, for a country that had some kind of platform or plan for promoting financial
inclusion, and that's Pakistan, and how they handled what happened during COVID-19. Can you just explain what you saw there?
QUEEN MAXIMA: Well, the issue is, you know, as you very well know, technology plays a very important part in financial inclusion. Today, you
can actually receive a payment on your mobile phone. And you can actually exchange that for money in your local merchant.
You can actually save through it. You can actually get a credit, you know, with the amount of transactions you do, even if you do not have an asset as
collateral. So these are actually extraordinary advancements.
Now, a country has to be able to allow to do that. They have to be able to allow innovation. It has to be safe, and it has to be able for everybody,
so connectivity, and having a smart phone or even having a phone is extremely important.
Like I said before, 50 countries have been working very hard on the financial inclusion structures, one of them being Pakistan. They have had
invested a lot in a robust ID system, identification system. Plus, they have actually changed the regulations and actually made it possible for
people to receive money in their digital wallets in their phones.
So, since the start of the COVID pandemic, they have actually been very fast in actually turning all the social programs into this digital payment.
And it actually reached 17 million people, so which is actually incredible. They haven't been able to do that before.
[09:25:18]
QUEEN MAXIMA: But also other countries. Even Togo has had a fantastic mechanism to actually give social payments to people, which 500,000 or more
people have actually received it digitally, but also countries like South Africa have actually done the same.
So we have actually seen other countries that have been investing in digital financial inclusion and have been able to very quickly give
emergency payments to the most vulnerable in their communities.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. I mean we have spoken to many of these Fintech players, these start-ups all over the world, PayTM in India, Paga in Nigeria, and
the private sector's understanding trying to get these people access to financial tools, it is whether the government and regulators sort of
understand that and they are all working together.
Surely, this is the critical piece here, it's everybody understanding it is a collaborative effort.
QUEEN MAXIMA: Absolutely, and there is a role for everybody to have. We call them a set of public goods. You have to have connectivity.
If only the urban areas have connectivity, have a phone and the rural areas do not have any, I mean, it is -- talking about mobile money accessible for
all is just something that is not possible, right?
So, you know, the telecom companies together with the government have to work together to make connectivity really a reality for everybody, and for
women. How do we actually get cheap handhelds for women? You know, having us market for a woman is not a luxury item anymore. It is like this -- it
is like, you know, having fair competition, being able to have systems that are interruptible so the customers can actually have freedom of choice of
one system to the other with better prices and better options for them to have.
So, all of these issues need to be done from the regulatory perspective from the government side also and in corporation and private sector because
they also have to come up with their products that are right for people because there is no use to have a bank account and they cannot really
assess the needs of women in the rural areas that they really -- she really needs to have very small short-term credit just in case she had illiquid
moments.
Or you know, very much for the things -- products that incentivize her to save at the moment when she doesn't have to pay school fees. But when she
has to pay school fees that she can actually disburse it.
So being mindful about people's needs and developing those products is also part of the private sector's role. So the cooperation between the public
and private sectors is really essentially.
I have a story to make. We have a group of CEOs of cross sector companies from consumer goods to technology to telecom to banking and what we have
been doing is actually having them work together in certain markets to really digitize all the merchants in a given region so that all of these
mom and pop shops can actually receive mobile payments, they can actually - - also to the suppliers, but also to the customers.
And with that, they have actually much more access to credit and to insurance, and you see that the whole supply chain starts elevating itself
in terms of quality.
These types of cooperation, not only with the public sector but also the private sector among themselves is extremely important.
CHATTERLEY: It actually gives me goosebumps hearing it. The idea that you tailor the products to the individual and then, it is not just about giving
them financial access, it is actually about giving them access to products they can use. It is so important.
QUEEN MAXIMA: Exactly.
CHATTERLEY: What we've seen in COVID has accelerated digitization, the focus, it has emphasized the need. Just in terms of your work going
forward, and the U.N.'s work, what's the plan now? How do we use this moment, harness this moment to accelerate the progress you have made?
QUEEN MAXIMA: You know, funny enough, 10 years ago, we had to make the case why financial inclusion and why technology was so important. I don't think
I have to do that anymore.
The issue is now the how. It is to really help countries really scale up and really make this a reality and really getting the cooperation between
the public and the private sector going, and sometimes it takes a little bit of figuring out how the supply chains work.
For example, in the farming sectors, you know in the rural sectors, what happens with merchants? How can we improve that side? How do we cater a lot
more for women? I think there is a lot more work that need to be done on the women needs on why do women use things and why they don't? Why -- how
can we actually make it a lot more incentivized for them to save and take better credits and inform them better?
I think there is a lot of things we have to learn also to actually cater this probably better for women. And in terms of its needs, I feel
digitization will be extremely important thing that we should be focusing on, definitely.
[09:30:19]
CHATTERLEY: Wow. I'm enthused. I can see you are enthused. Hopefully everyone else watching will feel the same after this.
Your Majesty, fantastic to chat with you. Thank you so much. I hope you come back soon. Thank you once again.
QUEEN MAXIMA: Thank you.
CHATTERLEY: Queen Maxima of the Netherlands there, the United Nations Secretary General's Special Advocate for Inclusive Finance for Development.
FIRST MOVE continues after the break. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. That was the opening bell, and as expected, we have a lower open for U.S. stocks with the greatest losses
once again coming in the tech sector. We are off by around six-tenths of one percent.
Stocks falling as the U.S. records a greater than expected jump in jobless claims last week, a rise in fact of 870,000 claims. We have also got the
S&P 500 flirting with correction levels once again.
The dollar has been a big beneficiary in fact of September's market volatility ticking higher once again today. We are currently trading near a
two and a half month high. That's putting some pressure on gold prices which have fallen below that psychological level of $1,900.00 an ounce and
we are off again some five-tenths of one percent.
In the meantime, significant action from the Turkish Central Bank raising interest rates by two percentage points. That is to help curb inflation and
has triggered a rally in the lira.
As you can see, the dollar lower there, the Turkish lira actually higher at this moment by some seven-tenths of one percent.
Now, tech stocks may have had a great run since the March lows, but my next guest says trouble is brewing. A study conducted by Deutsche Bank revealing
that in the United States, anger towards Big Tech is building, as is a huge digital racial gap.
The predicted consequences are pretty terrifying. Here's just one. The study says the majority of black and Hispanic-Americans could be shut out
of 86 percent of jobs in America by 2045, that's just one generation.
Apjit Walia is the Global Head of Technology Investment Strategy at Deutsche Bank and he joins me now. Sir, terrifying study. Fantastic to have
you on the show.
[09:35:39]
CHATTERLEY: I just want to start by asking you, when you talk to your clients of Deutsche Bank and you say, look, I'm really worried about the
tech sector, how much pushback at this moment do you get?
APJIT WALIA, GLOBAL HEAD OF TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT STRATEGY, DEUTSCHE BANK: Yes, good to be here, Julia. So right about since September 2nd, a few
weeks ago, a study was looking at society and tech, obviously very different indication in both and we talked about tech.
The most salient point in tech we found in that study was that two out of three Americans are unhappy with Big Tech. I think there was a lot of anger
towards China earlier in the year and we felt a lot of people's sentiment is going towards tech given what is happening with privacy, given what's
happening with antitrust.
As we head into the elections and beyond, we believe a lot of the scrutiny in tech continues and you are obviously seeing that. Most of the sentiment,
I believe when we talked about it, there was pushback on tech itself. It felt people maybe data is going to start to improve, but we have seen, I
guess, in the last couple of weeks the action -- the price action -- there has been a lot of negativity towards Big Tech and stock have actually
underperformed. And we believe, until elections, this will continue.
Our view is, no matter what happens in November, Big Tech is going to be looked at from very different areas in terms of what can we do to improve
it to find ways to make, I guess the e-commerce curve has come forward so fast that it found ways to make society equal.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it is interesting, isn't it? Because we have seen tech stocks rise a dramatic amount since the lows back in March. We are talking
about a bit of a pullback here, but it is minor relative to the gains that we have had.
So when you turn around you say actually, two-thirds of consumers in the United States are really angry with big tech, you can understand why people
are going, what are you talking about?
WALIA: Absolutely, because what is happened is, you know, the tech itself had sucked our productivity from the bottom half, from people not scaled
and essentially has pulled it towards the top half or the top five percent, and we can see that reflected in the way the markets are acting and what is
happening in the underlying economy, and that's what we are trying to say that while digitization has a lot of benefits, there is also a difficult
underbelly which one has to tackle where large parts of society whether it is unskilled and obviously, in our study, people of color with less
training in digitalization are struggling.
And COVID was a litmus test to what digitization might look like in a generation from here.
CHATTERLEY: And the curtain was drawn back. I am going to plant another statistic. You say blacks and Hispanics are 10 years behind whites in
levels of broadband access, almost four times more blacks have poor tech connectivity than whites, and those kind of limitations for minority
communities relative to others culminates in what you are saying in just one generation alone will mean 86 percent of those communities will be
underprepared or locked out in just 20 to 25 years.
WALIA: Yes. As digitization works, it gets elliptical. Tech has always surprised the upside and things happen faster than you think and the gap is
wide and it is there in the urban cities.
In terms of access to training, access to skills, access to connectivity, and it is not addressed and it stays exactly where it is, and we started
with COVID, you we project 25 years now, the same world, you have large swathes of society which will be underprepared.
CHATTERLEY: So, if I look at the gains that the five Big Tech stocks have made since the pandemic began, approaching $2 trillion, maybe even a bit
more, give or take, how much should they be spending to try and tackle some of these issues to deflect some of this anger that you are talking about?
WALIA: So I see it two ways. Most industries -- and if you go back to the last couple of years where they are in the curve, where tech is, they made
the mistake of essentially not paying attention to the growth they have had and potentially what has been hurt.
I believe tech can do it differently. Tech has done so much for the world, so much for the country. At this point, this is a problem which is well
defined. It's fixable if someone rolls up their sleeves. They have the logistics. They have the know-how to come in and you know, our plan is --
we were talking about $15 billion, which is looking at families of color, black and Hispanic under $30,000.00, providing them with connectivity and
providing them with training and hardware for three to five years.
[09:40:10]
WALIA: It starts to make a dent in the digital gap. I believe if tech does it, it cascades into a bigger movement. And so the two reasons, I believe,
they can do it. One, of course, we talked about it. They are getting unpopular. This is something which will bring a lot of goodwill in the
country across the political spectrum to help the unskilled and families of color.
The second, I believe, is this is a growing market. If I told you this is a market of X million people which are untapped, don't have digitization,
don't have connectivity, one would go into that country and get very aggressive in trying to tap into it.
Well that market exists here in the U.S., in New York, in L.A., in Chicago. Large swathes of society. And guess what? In 25 years' time, they would be
consumers. The level of entrenchment you can gain by getting there now will repay back multi-folds in the future.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, we just had a conversation about the challenges in emerging markets and some so-called developed markets have big issues that
they need to tackle as well. I think every lawmaker should read your report. It was great.
Apjit Walia, thank you so much for joining us on the show. Come back soon, please.
The Global Head for Technology Investment Strategy at Deutsche Bank joining us there.
All right, it has become a global competition, finding a vaccine for COVID- 19. When we come back, we will speak to an expert about the testing involved, and when we should expect a proven vaccine based on the data.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. Drug companies around the world are racing to complete clinical trials for their various coronavirus vaccine
candidates. Now some experts are questioning whether the rush to make a vaccine available could threaten the integrity of the entire process.
Amid the confusion, it is still not clear when an effective vaccine may be released or made available to the masses. Here's Dr. Fauci on that.
[09:45:05]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: My projection is that it likely would be November and December.
It is conceivable that it could be October.
I mean, there is no doubt that that could happen. I think more likely, it would be November and December, and then, at that point, if one or more
vaccines reaches that critical point, then the F.D.A. will make their decision and then we can start rolling out the vaccine.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Let's get the take of another expert on all the data out there and there is plenty of it. Rasmus Bech Hansen joins us now. He is the CEO
of Airfinity, a scientific data analytics company.
Sir, fantastic to have you on the show. Just explain briefly how Airfinity works. What data are you using? How do you put it to use?
RASMUS BECH HANSEN, CEO, AIRFINITY: Hi, Julia, it is great to be on. So we have a setup that listens to all the new pieces of new science information
out there globally -- China, Russia, everywhere. We listen to journals, social media, and preprints. You know, there is a flurry of new
information.
So we use that to provide a comprehensive view that really helps decision makers make better decisions that are informed by the new science and we
also do predictive models that help kind of forecast where science is going.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, I mean, there is an overwhelming amount of data out there. So even just being able to hone that and get a sense of that timetable is
critical.
Let's talk about. Four companies, I think being discussed: Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Who is in the lead in terms of
getting their vaccine trials finished and then approved, according to your analysis?
HANSEN: Yes. So that's the question everyone is asking, right? So from our data, we can see that Pfizer is really the frontrunner at the moment. I
think the only company that has a realistic chance of meeting the F.D.A. requirements before the U.S. presidential election is Pfizer.
We expect that first interim data coming out fairly soon on Pfizer and then Astra, Moderna will come shortly after, and then Johnson & Johnson is a
little bit later. But you know, we have 320 vaccines out there. So there is a lot of more science to be expected in the coming months and quarters.
I think the speed of these trials is just incredible. And it's -- we look into the details of the protocols, so kind of how these trials actually set
up. There is no doubt that they basically set up to maximize speed at the expense of some other things, and I think that's one of the key things we
really need to watch out for when we interpret the data that's coming out.
CHATTERLEY: At the expense of what? Because I think this is key when we are looking at even Pfizer because haven't they lowered the bar in terms of
what they are actually looking for with respect to this virus?
HANSEN: Yes, I think that's a fair point. So kind of simply put, what they have decided to do, they have decided to basically test against mild
symptoms of COVID-19. So a cough, a sore throat, fever, et cetera, that counts as a case and it is somewhat similar for the others.
You can argue that actually what we need, we need a vaccine that works against hospitalization, deaths, et cetera, not just the mild version but
the severe version and that's really the compromise they made here. I don't know, it might be worth just like looking a little bit at how these vaccine
trials actually work.
Say you have a 30,000 trial. You have 50,000 that gets the vaccine, the other 50,000 are in the so-called placebo group. They just get like
saltwater and currently in the U.S., we have an infection rate of around 1.32 percent, which means that 1.32 people gets the virus daily out of
10,000.
So calculate those numbers, and then you would say that over a, let's say 100-day period you would have around 200 cases with both mild and severe
disease in the placebo group and around 40 of those would have very severe diseases and around 160 would then have the mild version.
The F.D.A. has said, to approve a vaccine, we need to get to a threshold of minimum 150 cases in the placebo group assuming an efficacy of 50 percent.
I mean, 50 percent less in the vaccinated group. So you can see, in this case, you would then actually be able to say okay, from the perspective of
a mild disease that's fine, we can improve the vaccine.
But if you needed 150 of the severely ill, hospitalized and potentially dead, you would have to wait much longer and that's really -- that's really
the dilemma for these companies. That's really the kind of key decisions that are being made, and I think that raises some very important questions
also of the public's willingness to take a vaccine that has actually only been proven to work against the milder versions of the disease.
[09:50:14]
CHATTERLEY: This is such an important point, because if you are challenging this vaccine in a relatively low infection environment, it is simply going
to take longer to judge the placebo group, relative to those that have been vaccinated, and this is a timing aspect, a critical timing aspect in
addition to your point that the degree of symptoms here that we are looking at.
Let's talk China and Russia very quickly. In terms of antibody production, what can you tell us about the efficacy of the Russian -- let's go for
Sputnik, the Russian vaccine. What are your thoughts on this one?
HANSEN: Well, first of all, it is a great name, right? I think the other vaccine candidates have similar innovative names. Though, jokes aside, I
think Sputnik is actually -- what we have seen from the Phase 1 is very similar to the other candidates. It's not like it is significantly worse or
better works, it works slightly better on some population groups than others.
But really from the Phase 1 trial, it is hard to say that Sputnik is either/or. I think it is promising candidate. I think we also see a lot of
promising candidates from China. China is moving really fast in the space and they have only kind of decided a slightly different strategy to the
western countries.
They have gone for what's called whole virus vaccines which is more kind the traditional approach, which kind of from a production perspective, it
would probably be easier to scale up production because that has been done before.
A lot of these genetic vaccines have actually never been produced at scale before, so that's one of the kind of key risk factors. So I think we are
probably underestimating a little bit what happening in China, and I think that they have a number of candidates that are very likely to come out soon
and maybe even before some of the western -- the front runners in the west.
CHATTERLEY: Interesting. So regulators need to be looking at everything. They just need to be provided enough data to make a judgment.
As always, there is never enough time. Rasmus, come back and talk to me, because I have plenty more questions for you, sir. One of our experts --
and I should make the point that you work for governments, for corporations, for hedge funds, giving them this critical information, too,
as this race goes on. Great to have you with us, the CEO of Airfinity.
HANSEN: Thanks, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Thank you. All right, when we come back, California dreaming -- of a day without gasoline-powered cars it seems. It is coming faster,
perhaps, than you might think -- perhaps.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: California has just announced an ambitious new plan that would ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles in the state by the year 2035.
Paul la Monica is back with us to discuss.
We are keeping you busy today, Paul. Biggest car market in the United States. Biggest EV market in the United States. Talk us through what the
game plan is here.
[09:55:01]
LA MONICA: Yes, Gavin Newsom hoping that by 2035, new vehicles will be zero emissions. So that is obviously, good news for the likes of Tesla and all
the big automotive companies that are ramping up production of electric vehicles.
The question, I think, is will this be legally challenged? Because there are concerns that maybe it is a little too ambitious to try over the next
15 years to completely scale back the gas guzzler type cars.
And the other important thing to note, Julia is that this is for new cars. So if you currently own in the State of California or plan to buy this the
next ten years or so, a car that is running on old-fashioned fossil fuels, you can still drive it. You are not going to be prohibited from driving it,
and you can still sell it as a used car as well.
So this doesn't mean that gas guzzlers go away. It is just trying to stop and prevent the new sale of gas guzzling cars after 2035.
CHATTERLEY: Okay. So this is a really important point. So if you are buying a second hand car, even up to that and beyond that point, it is okay. This
is simply for new cars. Because the price point at least today is still too high for many people. It's just not viable.
LA MONICA: Exactly, and that is something that Elon Musk has pointed out himself with Tesla battery day.
CHATTERLEY: Of course.
LA MONICA: And they are still relying on Panasonic and other manufacturers. They are trying to make more of their own batteries at massive scale.
Hopefully within the next 15 years, you have the cost of those batteries come down and if that's the case, the Model S, Model X, whatever future
Tesla models that come in the next 15 years, and you know, should be cheaper and maybe on a cost comparison, you know, more analogous to what
you could buy in a similar gas guzzling car right now. That's really --
CHATTERLEY: I know. What a coincidence of timing, $25,000.00 Tesla, and then we get this announcement from California today. Fantastic. Paul La
Monica. Thank you so much for that.
That's it for FIRST MOVE. We'll be back tomorrow. Stay safe.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:00:00]
END
