Return to Transcripts main page

First Move with Julia Chatterley

Magnitude 7.0 Quake Hits Aegean Sea Near Greece and Turkey; Trump and Biden Visit Crucial Swing States in Final Sprint; E.U. Economy Grows Record 12.1 Percent in Third Quarter. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired October 30, 2020 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:22]

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN BUSINESS ANCHOR: Welcome to FIRST MOVE. We begin with breaking news from Turkey.

The Turkish Interior Minister says an earthquake has destroyed multiple buildings in Izmir and two other cities. The 7.0 magnitude tremor struck

off the Aegean Coast north of the Greek Island of Samos, that's according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Let's get right to Arwa Damon who is in Istanbul for us. Arwa, great to have you with us. What more do we know at this stage and any information

yet about possible casualties, too?

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Nothing yet on possible casualties, Julia, but this was quite a powerful earthquake, even though it

did happen out at sea and at a depth of about 11 miles, so 17 kilometers or so. But what we do know at least initially from the Mayor of Izmir is that

about 20 buildings were damaged or collapsed.

We have seen some very dramatic images coming out from the City of Izmir, especially from the two districts there that were hit the heaviest of

buildings that just look like they collapsed upon themselves, pancaked upon themselves. Videos of people running out into the streets and also, very

dramatic video of what appears to be a small tsunami in the area of Seferihisar which is slightly outside of the main City of Izmir itself.

Now, we do also know -- and this is of course, very important that emergency response teams are already on the site. They were deployed very

quickly.

Turkey is, actually and perhaps thankfully so for those that are impacted by this, adept at dealing with these kinds of natural disasters. They have

emergency teams. They are stationed regularly throughout the country. Turkey is of course, a very earthquake-prone nation. It has been through

significant earthquakes in the past as well as on a fairly regular basis, smaller scale ones.

And, you know, many people who live along the quake's main fault lines do tend to ready themselves for what everyone calls "The Big One" that is

coming, but in that readiness, you also do have yes, these teams that are stationed in very critical areas, but this quake was felt for quite a

distance, not just in Turkey but also on a number of Greek Islands.

Of course, this is part of the Turkish Coast is very close to a number of Greek Islands and as far as in the City of Athens itself.

People were talking about the shaking, the way that buildings were just shaking, even half an hour drive away. People felt buildings shaking. My

parents happen to live down there, about 40 minutes away from the City of Izmir itself. They spoke about how their house was shaking.

They were watching waves coming up and flashing outside of the pool. They are fine. But it just shows you the force of this earthquake and of course,

we are all waiting to hear any more information about what casualties may have occurred, who may be trapped underneath the rubble, as these emergency

teams continue to dig through and begin to try to evacuate people that were injured, people who are they are trying to rescue.

But again, Turkey is especially compared to other countries, very well equipped at dealing with these kinds of disasters.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. No shortage of quakes in this region, certainly, and then preparedness, of course, but no less frightening when it happens. Arwa

Damon, thank you so much for bringing that to us and of course, we'll keep you updated as we get more news from Turkey and as that story develops.

For now, which is four days away from a pivotal U.S. presidential election, a vote that would determine not only the future path of the United States,

but also America's political and economic relationships with nations all over the world.

Records are being set as we speak and uncertainty being created in the process. Let me walk you through this.

A record-breaking 81 million Americans have already voted. Millions of them doing so by mail, raising questions, of course, about just how swiftly

those votes can be counted. At the same time, record daily COVID infections reported here in the United States, too. Almost 90,000 people, in fact, on

Thursday and almost 1,000 additional deaths.

So it is political uncertainty, it is pandemic uncertainty, combined today, too, with tech stock weakness that is dragging us lower by more than half a

percent premarket.

Asia also took a beating early. The majors there losing some 1.5 percent or more. European forces, pretty mixed today, too, but markets there remain at

five-month lows. Why? Well, fears of a double dip recession, I think dominating debate in Europe.

[09:05:20]

CHATTERLEY: We've got solid third quarter growth numbers from Germany, Italy and France earlier, but of course, that data as with the United

States now feels pretty dated as COVID cases soar and as far as Europe is concerned, lockdown measures are enacted.

The European Central Bank hinting yesterday that they are ready to do more to help. Mohamed El-Erian, if you remember, of Allianz warned us yesterday

that the markets has simply not priced in all the risks we face and therefore, remain vulnerable to shocks.

Top of the list right now, of course, political risk. It's all about Tuesday's vote.

Let's get to the drivers. Right now is a tense time in Washington and across the United States. There are just four days left for Americans to

vote and choose the leader to take them forward for the next four years. Will it be a second term for President Donald Trump or a new administration

under former Vice President Joe Biden?

Both candidates are holding last minute rallies across the country with the focus on the crucial Midwest swing state as Jeff Zeleny reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): President Trump and Joe Biden crossing paths in Florida.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We are going to win Florida. We are going to win four more years.

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: It's up to you. You hold the key. If Florida goes blue, it's over. It's over.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY (voice-over): The dueling rallies speak volumes about their markedly different view of the rising coronavirus crisis. The President bragging

about his crowds.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: There's a lot of people -- look what that crowd is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY (voice-over): The former Vice President seizing on them, too, but to draw a sharp distinction.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: President Trump's super-spreader events, and he is spreading more virus around the country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY (voice-over): The home stretch of the race is consumed by the deepening crisis, with some of the most at-risk states also key campaign

battlegrounds.

Today, Trump is heading to Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Biden to Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The Midwest a critical path in their quest

to win 270 electoral votes.

The President sending mixed signals on masks.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: If you get close, wear a mask. Always controversial. It's not controversial to me. If you get close, you wear a mask. Social distance.

Social distance. You know the bottom line, though, you're going to get better. You're going to get better. If I can get better, anybody can get

better.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY (voice-over): But that's hardly the bottom line for most Americans, including more than 228,000 who have already died, a grim toll the

President rarely acknowledges.

Biden showcasing empathy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: Over these past few months, there's been so much pain. So much suffering. So much loss in America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY (voice-over): And pushing back at suggestions his proposed mask mandates and other steps would go too far.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: I'm not going to shut down the economy. I'm not going to shut down the country. I'm going to shut down the virus.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY (voice-over): The long campaign is heading into its final weekend, with Democrats on offense, eyeing potential opportunities in Texas, where

Senator Kamala Harris is visiting today. As Republicans defend terrain they easily won four years ago --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE PENCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I need you to show one more time that Iowa is Trump country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY (voice-over): In the final days of the race, all this campaigning may have diminishing returns. More than one third of all registered voters,

80 million Americans, have already cast their ballots.

But the weekend sprint is about ensuring high turnout among those who haven't, so former President Barack Obama is set to join Biden for the

first time on the campaign trail Saturday in Detroit, while Trump is scheduled to barnstorm Pennsylvania.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHATTERLEY: Jeff Zeleny reporting there. Remember this is all about the race to 270 electoral votes. The tipping point will come from just a

handful of what we call the battleground states. Harry Enten joins us now to discuss this. Harry, great to have you with us.

Let's talk about the race to the presidency here. Can we narrow it down to, let's say the six closest states that President Trump won in 2016? Where do

we stand?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST: Yes, these are the states that matter the most, plus the second congressional district in

Nebraska because Nebraska has these weirdo rules where they allocate one electoral vote to the winner in each congressional district, and what do we

see in the polling right now?

What we see in all of those states is that Donald Trump is trailing. He won these states back in 2016, but he is trailing in all of them. Now, in

Florida and North Carolina, it is close. It is within the margin of error, but if you add together Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania where Biden

has leads of at least six points, you add those to the states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, that gets Joe Biden to above 270 electoral votes.

So at this point, in my mind, he is the clear favorite heading into Tuesday.

[09:10:07]

CHATTERLEY: OK, but there will be a lot of people listening to this going, you said the word, polls. Yes, yes, yes. If we go back to 2016, these state

polls specifically got it wrong. What happens if we introduce the amount of error we saw in 2016 to the numbers that we are seeing now in 2020? What

happens then?

ENTEN: Yes, this, I think is my favorite map, right? Let's just say that we recreate the errors. The polls were as off they were in 2016. What happens?

Well, if the polling errors are as wrong as in 2016, Joe Biden still wins. He would still win.

CHATTERLEY: Wow.

ENTEN: He would still win. He has 335 electoral votes, well more than the 270 he needs to win. So I think if there's one point to take away from all

of this, Donald Trump doesn't just need a repeat of the polling errors in 2016, he needs additional errors. He needs the polls to be off even more.

Now, that is possible, but in my mind, it's not likely and that's another key reason why Joe Biden is in the driver's seat in my mind at this point.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, I mean, that's quite fascinating, isn't it? What about COVID? I mean, this is a critical issue for us, for ordinary Americans

going to the polls right now. How important is rising COVID cases in these battle ground states, too?

ENTEN: Yes, I mean, look, if you, unfortunately you were to look at those battleground states, the six closest that Trump won in 2016, look at this.

What you essentially see is that the coronavirus cases in all -- I'm sorry, the 10 closest battleground states, we added some, and the most important

one perhaps is Wisconsin where the coronavirus cases really are climbing and you just see it across the board. There is no escaping this for the

campaigns because the COVID cases are rising in all these key battleground states that Trump won in 2016.

CHATTERLEY: And how much of an impact do you expect that to have on voting? I mean, that's the bottom line here.

ENTEN: Yes, I mean, look. The more COVID is in the minds of voters, the more it's likely to help former Vice President Joe Biden. We know this from

our last national CNN poll. You know, you were asked, who is better able to handle the COVID-19 situation and crisis and Joe Biden was overwhelmingly

favored over Donald Trump, 57 percent to 39 percent.

You see this over and over again in the polls when it comes to COVID-19, more voters trust Joe Biden than trust Donald Trump.

CHATTERLEY: Do we have a precedent though where a candidate like Donald Trump has been lambasted for his handling a big issue like this, but still

manages to win the election?

ENTEN: Yes, I mean, look, Gallup has been asking, what's the most important problem? Which party do you trust most to handle the most important problem

since 1948, and pretty much every single time the party that is trusted to handle the most important problem has won.

You can see it across your screen, right, it is pretty much all of them. Only really in 1948 with Harry Truman, when pretty much all the polls were

wrong anyway, was it the case that that party that wasn't picked to handle the nation's most important top problem actually won and obviously, this

year, the coronavirus is considered the nation's most important problem.

So I would think given that and given that Biden is thought to be the best to handle coronavirus, he should be the favorite, which is exactly what the

polls indicate.

CHATTERLEY: We will see. Harry Enten, great to have you with us. Thank you for your wisdom and great to have you on the show.

All right, CNN's Special Coverage Election Night in America kicks off next Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. in New York, that's 9:00 in London.

Now, President Trump making a last-minute pitch to voters in the key battleground State of Florida as he tells the third quarter GDP report

claiming he is the best candidate to handle the economy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Did you see the number today? Thirty-three point one GDP. The biggest in the history of our country. By almost triple, right? Almost

triple.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHATTERLEY: I am just waiting for the tumble weed to pass before I introduce you, Christine. OK. Look, we talked about the data yesterday

because it had just come out. But I was looking at the math afterwards.

We have recovered two-thirds of the growth that we lost in the first half of this year. We've only recovered half of the jobs. Whoever takes on the

presidency for the next four years has one heck of a job on the economy, but also one heck of a job containing the virus that's impacting the

economy too.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely. You know, the President we knew he would take a victory lap over that

number. I mean, he has been talking about how this would be a record number for weeks. It is not really a surprise since you had a record collapse

right before it.

What we've missed out on is the incremental growth we would have had without a pandemic. So the U.S. economy no question is far behind where it

should be and where it would have been without this pandemic, and now I keep saying, what have you done for me lately in terms of this economy

because the third quarter, as consumer spending and consumer numbers were very good, there was financial aid flowing to American family and

businesses, so they were able to try to stay afloat or at least, tread water in many cases.

But the financial aid is now gone, and the pandemic is resurgent. So what is going to happen in the fourth quarter? That's a very big question in my

mind. And I think that's one of the things that's really been bothering the stock market.

[09:15:16]

CHATTERLEY: Absolutely. The spending that is going to be required to get us back to perhaps where we should have been in economic terms as well. And

the stimulus talks, the financial aid talks, well and truly dead and buried if they weren't already.

ROMANS: They are and now, there's sort of this sniping back and forth. You know, you saw the Treasury Secretary send a letter to the House Speaker

saying, you know, she was not -- it just -- it almost felt like as one of my producers said this morning, "I am sorry, is this kindergarten?"

You know, this idea that American people need something so desperately and businesses have been begging for some sort of clarity about when relief is

coming, and you just have months and months of negotiations.

Remember, the Democrats put $3.4 trillion on the table way back on May 15th. So it's not as if there wasn't a lot of time here to try to cover

this ground and figure out what to do. We know that by the end of the year, there will be unemployment benefits that will begin expiring and some of

these rent moratoriums will begin expiring.

We know a lot of people are behind on rent and on mortgages, so there's a moment happening here right now where the President is taking a victory lap

for the 33.1 percent of GDP growth for the fourth quarter. I'm a little worried about here.

And you know, I'll tell you, Trump supporters and people who have advised him would like him to stay on this third quarter economy message and would

like him to stay on this idea that the economy is coming back better than we thought and that Biden is going to raise taxes, corporate taxes and that

could be a coolant on the economy next year.

But he is just not really staying on that message and we know his approval ratings are the best when it's about the economy, but the President, if you

see him in these final days of campaigning, it is really kind of all over the place here and not really staying focused on that message. And I wonder

if he will over this weekend.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's going to be fascinating to see and it's not kindergarten, it is politics and has been for months and that's the

heartbreaking thing.

Christine, great to have you with us. Christine Romans.

The European economy rebounded in the third quarter up by a record 12 percent. Context once again key. This rise, same with the United States,

comes after an unprecedented 11 percent contraction in the previous quarter.

Jim Bittermann joins us now. Jim, and now, we face lockdowns all across Europe. There's a real fear here that the debate turns to the risk of a

double dip recession.

JIM BITTERMANN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Exactly, and I think it could be close to that, but we don't know for sure. We're going to

know very shortly though as this fourth quarter rolls out.

You're getting a look right now behind me of what the microeconomic situation here is here in France, which went into lockdown last night and

you can see the businesses are closed, the theaters are closed. The restaurants are closed and nobody is on the street, Friday afternoon at the

Champs-Elysees.

It is really unthinkable to sort of see the streets like this, but it is the same thing we went through in the lockdown in the spring.

And France has been going through this same kind of roller coaster that you have seen all over Europe that is to say, third quarter growth, fantastic.

I mean, in France, it was 18.2 percent. It's the kind of thing Donald Trump would brag about, but you have to look at that year-on-year figure.

Year-on-year, the growth is minus 4.3, say with Germany, minus 4.2 in Germany. Germany is expecting in the fourth quarter to turn a little bit

positive towards perhaps four tenths of one percent positive growth in the fourth quarter for Germany.

But you know, all of this is going to depend on these lockdowns and how the pandemic goes, if the virus infection rate goes up, the lockdown continues

longer and the economy suffers more -- Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. I couldn't agree more. Jim Bittermann, thank you so much for that.

All right, still to come on FIRST MOVE, phone e-TIN. Could mobile balloting be the way to expand voter access and security, of course, too? Early Uber

investor Bradley Tusk believes it is. We'll be discussing.

And Joe Biden's Campaign blaming Facebook for hundreds of thousands of dollars in missing donations. Flaw of fix? We will dig into the

allegations. That's coming up. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:22:09]

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE live from New York where it is still looking like a lower open for U.S. stocks as we head into election week

here in the United States with new COVID cases also at record levels.

Tech stock, in fact, leading the decline after mixed results. So, the perception of them from some of the major FAANG names, too. Apple set to

take the biggest hit down by some four percent premarket as iPhone revenues disappoint. Alphabet as you can see, bucking the trend.

It returned to revenue growth in the third quarter with ad sales leading the charge.

Not many treats for U.S. investors this October though. The Dow on track for a four percent drop after a weak September. The S&P set to drop for the

second straight month, too.

Phil, Camporeale joins us now. He is the Managing Director of Multi-Asset Solutions at JPMorgan Asset Management. Phil, great to have you on the

show. I do like to talk about the medium to long-term, but I feel like we can't avoid the short-term. What should investors and those watching the

markets expect over the next week? Two weeks? We'll see.

PHIL CAMPOREALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF MULTI-ASSET SOLUTIONS, JPMORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT: Yes, Julia, it's a great question. Good morning, and it is good

to be with you again.

Listen, there's no model for this. I mean, we just came off our best GDP quarter we've ever had in history, which is, of course, preceded by the

worst quarter we've ever had in history. And Julia, I think Wednesday was a little bit concerning for investors.

Since 1990, there have been only three instances where the stock market has dropped by 3.5 percent and you've got no protection in either rates or

gold, right, so this is unchartered territory. But what I would expect over the next week or so, is that our view of growth will be resilient enough

and it will outlast both the politics and the pandemic.

And just one thing to keep in mind, I know you mentioned over the next week and it is really hard to tell what is going to happen over the next few

days, but there have been 10 elections since 1980 and eight out of those 10 elections, the market has been higher 12 months after that.

The only two exceptions were 1980 when the Fed was tightening like crazy because of inflation and then 2000 with the dot-com bubble. So financial

conditions matter. I think credit especially, Julia, I feel like high yield credit is voting for both Biden and Trump in this election. There's just

less that needs to go right.

So even if you have little or a small amount of growth or a lot of growth, credit makes sense for us right now, Julia, which is different from kind of

the volatility that you're mentioning in the equity markets.

CHATTERLEY: But you also said there is no protection in bonds and there's no protection in gold. Explain what you mean by that. Because I think for

some people watching this, they are like, what do you mean? In a risky environment, you would go into safe havens like gold, like bonds.

CAMPOREALE: Yes, good question, Julia. So you mentioned September. Markets were down five to seven percent in September. The 10-year Treasury went

into September with 66 basis points. It came out of September at 66 basis points.

So, usually what happened is, if you have a risk off event, you're supposed to be protected in government bonds and to some extent, that's still true

because they're not going down, but the problem is, you're starting at such low levels of rates.

So unless you have a view that rates are going to move much lower and into negative territory, which we don't have, it's harder to get protected with

government bonds. But that doesn't mean that you can't be protected in fixed income.

So those same credit markets in September that I was mentioning, some of those credit markets were positive in September.

So we are kind of using the investment grade corporate bond market as the proxy for Treasuries.

[09:25:44]

CHATTERLEY: Right.

CAMPOREALE: To support the Federal Reserve in that market buying those the bonds, Julia. So yes, we've never had rates this low. We've never had less

protection than we do now in Treasuries, however, we have a corporate bond market that we believe is very strong and able to provide a balance to

portfolios, which is different than either rates or both.

CHATTERLEY: It is such a great question. So, just finally, I think, for investors at this moment, to the first point that you made which was so

important. Hang on to your hats, buckle yourself in the short-term and remember that by and large, 12 months out is a very different story to what

we see in the short-term amid a lot of noise.

CAMPOREALE: Yes, of course, and financial conditions matter. We're not voting for the Federal Reserve next week. Most of conditions are going to

remain in place, Julia, so it is a possible backdrop.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, we are not voting for the Federal Reserve, thank goodness for Jay Powell. That's all I can say, yes. Phil Camporeale, great to have

you with us. Thank you so much.

CAMPOREALE: Thank you.

CHATTERLEY: The Managing Director of Multi-Asset Solutions at JPMorgan Asset Management.

All right, the markets open next. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:30:00]

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE where U.S. stocks are up and running this Friday, the last day of trade before election week here in the United

States, and the last trading day of the month, of course, too.

We've got a soft open for the U.S. majors as investors brace for what could be days of political uncertainty, and potential volatility too on the

market. Tech falling too as investors weigh a mixed bag of third quarter results. Let's call it tricks mixed in with a few treats.

Alphabet reported a strong rebound in advertising revenue. Amazon, meanwhile, astounded again with a huge 37 percent sales spike. Meanwhile,

Apple's iPhone revenues fell 21 percent with an almost 30 percent drop in Greater China. Apple issuing no guidance for the current quarter, too.

Meanwhile, Twitter reported weaker than expected user growth and Facebook warned of significant uncertainty ahead.

Paul La Monica joins me now. Wow. That was a lot of information, Paul, so you can break it down for us. Let's hone in on Apple first. What happened

in China and also with the fall guidance leaving us without information about iPhone 12?

PAUL LA MONICA, CNN BUSINESS REPORTER: Yes. Clearly, Julia, that's what investors are worried about. Apple obviously faces a lot of competition,

not just in China, but around the rest of the world from a litany of smartphone makers making phones running on Android and that's kind of like

the big debate, I think, in tech, in the same way that people what always used to say, like you need to be a Beatles fan or a Rolling Stones fan.

It seems like you're either an iOS fan or an Android fan, and right now, the lack of certainty about what the sales is going to be from the iPhone

12 is clearly troubling a lot of investors and I think that's why Apple's stock is down because, of course, the iPhone 12 has to be a hit because

revenue is starting to slow a bit in that segment.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, but I feel like for all of these tech stocks, irrespective of the earnings this quarter, they have had such a great run since the lows

in March that any amount of pullback here has to be put into perspective.

Facebook interested me as well. A drop in user growth in the United States and Canada and yet, ad revenues up 22 year-on-year, so stop hate for profit

really had a big impact -- not.

LA MONICA: Yes, Facebook obviously going to remain in the cross hairs of not just investors, but everyone leading up to the election is going to be

looking at the company because of, you know, some of the concerns about the impact in 2016 and maybe even this cycle as well.

And Mark Zuckerberg did talk about the fact there is going to be a lot of uncertainty in the fourth quarter and 2021. I think that's why Facebook's

stock which also has had a tremendous run this year, cooling off a little bit today. But make no mistake, even with decline in users in the U.S., you

still seeing that ad growth that you mentioned and strong subscriber growth around the world.

Because again, it's not just the Facebook platform, but Instagram and WhatsApp as well.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. Great point. Paul La Monica, as always. Thank you so much and have a good weekend.

All right, there's a lot at stake for Big Tech in the upcoming election. A blue wave, so a Democratic win in Congress could mean more regulation while

any evidence of misinformation on social media could turn public opinion once and for all, but tech might also be the solution to ensuring a free

and fair vote in the future says our next guest.

He has invested $10 million in voting by smartphone, which is available to some residents of three U.S. states. Joining us now, Bradley Tusk, Founder

and CEO of Tusk Holdings. He has also served as Mike Bloomberg's campaign manager in the 2009 New York City Mayoral race.

Brad, great to have you on the show.

BRADLEY TUSK, FOUNDER AND CEO, TUSK HOLDINGS: Thank you for having me.

CHATTERLEY: If only we had digital voting, it would solve some of the big issues and the uncertainties that we are talking about. Twenty-first

Century technology.

TUSK: People wouldn't be waiting in line.

CHATTERLEY: I know. OK, talk to me.

TUSK: Yes.

CHATTERLEY: How concerned are you, firstly, about election security and safety of voting in this election and then the second thing I think that is

super important here is the issues that we are discussing about how long it takes to count, particularly mail-in votes. What are your thoughts here?

TUSK: The good news is, I am not that worried about safety and security. Those are things that people like to throw around a lot when they want to

prevent people from voting. But the reality is, there are virtually no acts of any kind in any of our elections. The risk is there, but the reality

just doesn't show that. So that's the good news.

The bad news is, we are combining a once in a generation or a once in a century pandemic with an election that may have absolute record turnout,

with government agencies and Boards of Election that make the DMV team seem highly competent by comparison.

[09:35:19]

TUSK: And so, if you have incredible changes to society because of a pandemic and incredibly high turnout and government agencies that aren't

used to dealing with things this way and aren't particularly competent in the first place, that's a really dangerous mix.

So it is highly likely that we will be waiting a long time to find out how this race actually turns outs.

CHATTERLEY: I still think, particularly for an international audience, they will be confused. Even if you've got an envelope, let's say and you save it

for the day and you have to open the envelope to count the vote, you're still counting ordinarily or in the past votes that have been made on

Election Day.

Is it just the fact that you've got perhaps 10 percent or 20 percent depending on how many more people vote this time around that adds to the

complication or is it just the physical difference in addressing a mail-in vote versus one that would have been done on the day?

TUSK: It's both. Look, there's a lot at stake because of COVID with mail-in voting or early voting and those are really good things because it makes it

easier to vote which is what we need this this country, but as a result, election officials have this just more paper to count. You know, one of the

upside of the voting machines is they tabulate the results for you so you don't have to sit there and go through piece by piece, hand by hand. And

so, that's the upside of it. The machines are accurate, however, people don't really use that.

In most elections, unlike this one in the U.S., primary turnout is 10 percent to 20 percent, which means, almost nobody bothers to vote. And so

we generally have an access problem in this country and a turnout problem. We won't have that this week, but as a result, it's going to be

overwhelming for the election officials to figure out what happened.

CHATTERLEY: OK, let's turn it to tech now, in particular. It's been a pillar of the financial markets this year in providing broader support for

the U.S. majors. You think there's an underestimated risk here for Big Tech if we see a Democratic sweep and the risk then that they are really

forceful about trying to lock down on some of the Big Tech firms and increase regulation.

TUSK: Yes, I mean, I think that if you see a Democratic White House and a Democratic Senate and I personally support both of those things, but if you

do see that, you're going to see, I believe, significant Federal regulations on Big Tech, much in the way that we've already seen in Europe.

So Europe has GDPR, which is a set of privacy regulations for individuals around the internet and I think that you could bring it to the U.S., adopt

its own version of that, just like California already has.

Antitrust, we've already seen the Justice Department about two weeks ago announce an antitrust prosecution against Google. I think it is likely that

you will see both new antitrust regulations and new prosecutions with Facebook being the next up, most likely to be taken down by D.O.J.

Third, there is something called Section 230, the Communications Decency Act and what that does is, it protects the platform like Twitter or

Facebook or Instagram when someone posts something on there, the platform is not legally liable for what they write.

That allows people to say whatever they want. It gives these companies a lot of protection. It's allowed them to grow considerably but it has also

allowed the internet to turn to a total cesspool. And so people who feel like, by far, we need to do a better job monitoring content will say that

if we repeal Section 230, it changes their incentives and we will get a different kind of internet as a result.

You see members of both parties call for that. Both presidential candidates say they support the repeal of Section 230, so it does seem likely.

And the final thing is this, even if you get past any specific policy or bill or regulation, you're going to have a very progressive Democratic

Party that's newly empowered. If you look at those who are truly in charge: Biden, Pelosi, Schumer, they need to keep the wing busy, right?

They don't really want them in their business on the major policy issues and decisions they have to make, they need to give them things to keep them

occupied and telling AOC or Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or whoever, hey, knock yourself out with Section 230 or privacy regulations or

antitrust.

It keeps them busy, it keeps them happy, and lets the Democratic leadership focus on the things that they care about. So purely for internal political

reasons also, I think the odds would be significantly higher regulation or super high.

CHATTERLEY: That's quite a fascinating comment to make. Keep the real liberals on the far left of the party perhaps busy in dealing with tech and

not into doing anything else. What happens if Trump wins? What happens if there is an upset?

TUSK: I think it's just four years of the same. Trump behaves the way he does every day based on what our pressing motions are at that particular

moment and nothing else. There is no strategy beyond that, even if the staff tries.

So every day for the next four years, it will be just however he is feeling that morning and that afternoon, and that evening, and then that's really

it. You can't plan for it, you can't predict it.

It does means that very little will likely get done, so that maybe positive from some people's perspective, but you have to have enjoyed the last four

years of total chaos to want see four more of years of that.

[09:40:26]

CHATTERLEY: Yes, and by upset, I should just be clear to our viewers, I mean versus what the polls are suggesting at this stage. Bradley, great to

have you with us. Thank you so much.

TUSK: Thank you for having me.

CHATTERLEY: Bradley Tusk, founder and CEO of Tusk Holdings there. All right, coming up on FIRST MOVE, the Biden Campaign claiming he lost out on

more than half a million dollars in potential donations due to Facebook. We'll tell you what happened, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. With tens of millions of voters at a U.S. election, there are logistical challenges. We have just been

discussing, if not a nightmare, but this time, it is even more so with so many people mailing in their ballots. CNN's Pamela Brown reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAMELA BROWN, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): More than a third of America's registered voters have already cast their ballots.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's more a sense of security when we vote in-person.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN (voice-over): Twenty-eight states have received more than 50 percent of total ballots cast in 2016. And Florida where more than seven million

people have voted, the Democrats big early turnout lead has narrowed to just over 200,000.

The Texas turnout is already massive, with more than eight million votes cast so far. Early voting there is on track to eclipse its entire 2016 vote

total.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. SYLVIA GARCIA (D-TX): We want to make as easy as it can be to make it accessible. So, this location is open 24 hours.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN (voice-over): There are also new legal battles over whether late arriving mail-in votes will be counted. In two key states, the U.S. Supreme

Court has weighed in.

[09:45:08]

BROWN (voice-over): North Carolina can count ballots up to nine days after the election, if they are clearly postmarked by November 3rd. In

Pennsylvania, the decision is trickier, allowing ballots received by November 6th to be counted for now, but the court made clear, they could be

disputed later.

Pennsylvania officials announcing they will securely segregate votes by setting aside ballots that arrive after Election Day, setting up a

potential nightmare legal battle if late arrival ballots end up being enough to swing the election.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KATHY BOOCKVAR, PENNSYLVANIA SECRETARY OF STATE: I know there is confusion about flying court decisions. Make a plan today to vote. Right now, do not

wait.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN (voice-over): And each county has a different counting plan. Cumberland County won't begin counting mail-in ballots until Wednesday,

prioritizing in-person voting. Dauphin County wants to have it all done by Tuesday night, but mail-in ballots could lag.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE PRIES, COMMISSIONER, DAUPHIN COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA: We now believe that election night, we will have all the in-person voting done and

approximately, if everything goes well, 50,000 mail-in ballots completed.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN (voice-over): New Hampshire is already getting started as election officials there begin partially processing absentee ballots. And in

Minnesota, a bipartisan message from former governors urging patience, warning the count may not be complete on election night.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JESSE VENTURA, FORMER GOVERNOR OF MINNESOTA: A delay just means our system is working and that we are counting every single ballot.

TIM PAWLENTY, FORMER GOVERNOR OF MINNESOTA: But no matter who wins, let's demonstrate the civility and decency that Minnesotans are known for.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN (voice-over): Pamela Brown, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHATTERLEY: All right, coming up on FIRST MOVE, I've got it right now, we are out on the campaign trail to find out what the Trump and Biden game

plan is for the last few days before the vote.

Don't go away, that's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. In the final days and hours of the campaign, Joe Biden and President Trump are beefing up their travel

schedules and their paths will be crossing. Both have three states on their itinerary today and both will be making stops in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Miguel Marquez is in Michigan covering the Trump campaign and Jeff Zeleny is in Des Moines in Iowa following the Bidens.

Miguel, let's look. Talk to me first, what can we expect from President Trump today?

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, we can expect more of the same where he has been making his closing arguments in states like

Michigan. This is a very important state to him. It is part of that blue wall.

He'll be in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota today. Three Midwestern states. I want to show you what the crowd looks like. We're several hours

away from the President showing up. It is very cold out. It has even been snowing a little bit.

You have hundreds and hundreds, if not thousands of people who have come out and are already moving in to this airfield here in Oakland County.

Oakland County is important. It is just outside of Detroit, a county that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 but then the President went on to win Michigan

by 10,704 votes.

Joe Biden and Barack Obama will also appear in Michigan tomorrow in their first joint appearance. Both campaigns working this state very hard. The

Secretary of State here suspects that five million votes will be cast in this election and before Election Day, they think that two-thirds of those

votes will already be in.

[09:50:41]

MARQUEZ: People we've spoken to here say that they will come out on Election Day, mainly, Republicans mainly coming out on Election Day, they

say to vote for President Trump and regardless of what the polls say, they say it will be another upset like 2016 -- Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Wow. We'll see. Can't help but notice the lack of social distancing and the lack of masks behind you there, Miguel.

Different story, Jeff, clearly in terms of the whole campaign really and the approach to these rallies. What can we expect from Joe Biden today?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Julia, there is a stark contrast between the Biden Campaign and the Trump Campaign and just

in terms of style and substance on coronavirus. The Biden Campaign is embracing that.

They are trying to use that to draw a distinction that Joe Biden says he is taking the coronavirus pandemic more seriously than the Trump

administration has. So, Joe Biden will be here in Iowa at the Iowa State Fairgrounds during the latest in the series of drive-in rallies where

people drive in, in their own vehicles and stay in their vehicles, honk their horns for support and that is the socially distanced event.

But more significant, why is Joe Biden in Iowa? This is a state that President Trump carried by nine percentage points four years ago. So you

may think it's not the place to be just three days before the election.

However, this is a state also incredibly close. They are locked in at a tight race here. Vice President Pence was here yesterday. I am told the

President is likely to come back one more time before the election and the reason is because it is very competitive.

Now, Joe Biden was part of a winning ticket here in 2008 and four years after on the Obama campaign. So for the vice presidential candidate, he has

actually also won the State of Iowa before, but it is still going to be a challenge for him.

But he is trying to make the case that they are looking for opportunities everywhere. If there is a blue wave next week, and that is a question that

we will have to wait and see. If there is a blue wave, he wants to seize on those opportunities and here in Iowa is one of those central places to do

it.

Also, a key Senate race here. That's another reason Joe Biden is here. The fight for control of the Senate also happening next week. Republicans are

certainly threatened with their own majority. So Senator Joni Ernst is trying to hold on. She is a Republican senator here.

So that is why Joe Biden is starting his day here, but then he'll be going to Minnesota and ending his day in important Wisconsin, so this part of the

United States, this upper Midwest, so key to next Tuesday's outcome -- Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, critical battlegrounds there. Miguel, just come back in here, Miguel because you both pointed out the stark differences. This is a

COVID election ultimately in what we are seeing in terms of the debate, the perception, and the views.

Miguel, what is the President going to say about this as we, again, look at the people behind you and see very few masks and people bunched together?

Do these people care about COVID?

MARQUEZ: Yes, let me -- show them the crowd again, Lionel, so most people are not wearing masks. We have spoken to several voters here. None. I asked

many, many voters here what their number one priorities were, what their concerns were. It is very generic.

It is about taking America back. It's about not being controlled by socialists. It is about the economy. Not one of them brought up the

coronavirus. When you do bring it up to them, they discount it as a big factor in their lives. They do think it will go away.

He has been very -- the President has been very dismissive of the coronavirus. He hasn't had a very focused message on that and it certainly

reflects in the people who come out to see him and spend so much time waiting in these conditions just to catch a glimpse -- Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's fascinating, isn't it? Miguel, Jeff, great to have you with us. You guys are going to have a busy weekend. So thank you and

try and get some sleep in the interim. Thank you, once again.

All right, the Biden Campaign angry that Facebook, after thousands of ads were blocked on social media because of technical issues. His campaign says

it cost them more than $500,000.00 in potential donations. Facebook acknowledged that, quote, "Technical flaws have prevented some campaigns

from running some ads this week" and said that both Biden and the Trump Campaigns have been affected.

All right. Just to once again bring you up to speed with what we are seeing with that breaking news from Turkey where an earthquake has destroyed a

number of buildings across three coastal cities. The 7.0 magnitude tremor struck off the Aegean Coast at a relatively shallow depth giving it

therefore, powerful impact.

[09:55:13]

CHATTERLEY: Turkey says the quake's epicenter was 17 kilometers off the coast of Izmir. These are some of the first pictures that we are seeing of

the destruction in that city. Greece is also reporting damage on the Island of Samos.

We will continue to keep you updated of course on that breaking news story throughout programming.

For now, that's it for the show. You've been watching FIRST MOVE. I'm Julia Chatterley. Stay safe this weekend as always, and thank you for watching.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

END