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First Move with Julia Chatterley
Horrific Scenes Emerge in Borodianka after Russians Retreat; Ukraine's Western Lviv Region Targeted by Apparent Strikes; Ukrainian Refugees find Shelter in Warsaw Office Building; Atrocities in Bucha Threaten Russia-Ukraine Talks; Lithuania Ceases all Russian Gas Imports; Twitter is Developing an Edit Feature. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired April 06, 2022 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN HOST, FIRST MOVE: You're watching CNN. I'm Julia Chatterley in New York. And a new outfit that's what the Mayor of Mariupol
is calling the city after weeks of relentless Russian bombardment. He says the city has become a death camp beyond what we're seeing in Chechnya, or
Aleppo. Local officials say Russian forces are using mobile crematoria to dispose of the victims.
CNN is unable to verify that claim. We're hearing of more alleged civilian executions in Borodianka Northwest of Kyiv. Local police say hundreds could
be buried under the rubble of apartment buildings leveled by Russian forces. And President Putin continues to shift his focus towards the east
and the so called liberation of the Donbas region military analysts are warning that could take months if not years.
Meanwhile, more attacks on civilians in the south in Mykolayiv. Security footage caught the moment an ambulance parked outside a children's hospital
was struck by shell fire on Monday. At least 167 children have been killed since the Russian invasion began according to President Zelenskyy.
Pope Francis too the latest to condemn the attacks on civilians, you can see there the pontiff unfurling a battered flag from Bucha during his
Vatican address. You can also hear the reaction. Today, President Biden will unveil fresh sanctions against Russia including some aimed at Vladimir
Putin's two adult daughters. And in the coming hours NATO Foreign Ministers will meet in any moment we'll hear from the NATO Secretary General too.
On Tuesday, President Zelenskyy delivered a fiery address to the United Nations Security Council, even questioning their existence.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT: You can do two things either remove Russia as an aggressor and a source of war so cannot block decisions
about its own aggression, its own war. Or the other option is please show how we can reform or change and work for peace. Or if there is no
alternative and no option then the next option would be dissolved you altogether.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: The president also warned of more atrocities this time in Borodianka another Ukrainian city which until recently was occupied by
Russian troops. CNN's Frederik Pleitgen was there to witness the aftermath and again a warning that some of the images and details in his report are
graphic, and they're disturbing.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): In the war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine, few places have suffered
more than Borodianka occupied by Vladimir Putin's troops since late February, recently taken back by Ukraine's army board
PLEITGEN (on camera): Borodianka was held by the Russians for a very long time. And just to give you an idea about the scale of the destruction, you
have houses like these that were completely destroyed, but if we look over here, you can see that even large residential buildings have been
flattened. This entire building was flattened. It was connected with this one before but now there's absolutely nothing left of it.
PLEITGEN (voice over): And the Russians made sure to show they owned this town, painting the letter V on occupied buildings even the facing
Borodianka's city administration. V is the letter the Russians used to help identify their forces that invaded this part of Ukraine.
Oksana Kostichenko and her husband just returned here and found Russian soldiers had been staying in their house. She says they ransacked the
place. Alcohol is everywhere she says empty bottles in the hallway under things they smoked a lot put out cigarettes on the table.
They also showed us the corpse of a man they found in their backyard. His hands and feet tied severe bruises on his body, a shell casing still
nearby. Russia claims its forces don't target civilians calling reports of atrocities fake and provocations.
But these body collectors are the ones who have to remove the carnage Russia's military leaves in its wake. In a span of less than an hour they
found a person gunned down while riding a bicycle a body burned beyond recognition. And the man still stuck in his car gunned down with bullet
holes in his head and chest.
He was believed to be transporting medical supplies now strewn near this road. The most awful thing is those are not soldiers laying there just
people innocent people - says for no reason I asked yes for no reason killed and tortured for no reason he says.
The road from Kyiv to Borodianka is lined with villages heavily damaged after Russia's occupation destroyed tanks and armored vehicles left behind
but also indications of just how much firepower they unleashed on this area.
[09:05:00]
PLEITGEN (on camera): The Russian say this is a special operation not a war, and that they don't harm civilians, but look how much ammunition they
left behind simply in this one single firing position here. This is ammunition for heavy weapons with devastating effects on civilian areas.
PLEITGEN (voice over): That devastation cuts through the towns and villages north of Kyiv, where the number of dead continues to rise. Now that
Vladimir Putin's armies have withdrawn, Ukraine's leaders still believe many more bodies could be buried beneath the rubble, Fred Pleitgen, CNN
Borodianka Ukraine.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: Heavy fighting underway in Eastern Ukraine with officials in the Luhansk region urging people to evacuate this as a southeastern Port
City of Mariupol continues to be bombarded by Russian forces. The UN says nearly 1500 civilians have been killed and over 2100 injured since the war
began. Ivan Watson spoke with some of the most severely wounded Ukrainians and he joins us now.
Ivan good to have you with us it's important, I think that our viewers see the price being paid by ordinary Ukrainians but I have to say some of this
is pretty unbearable to watch, never mind the suffering that these people are going through.
IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It is. I mean, I just a little bit of news here in Zaporizhzhia Julia, the International
Committee of the Red Cross, team spent four days, four nights and five days trying to get to that city of Mariupol that you mentioned to help deliver
humanitarian aid to the trapped civilian population there encircled by the Russian siege of that city and also to help evacuate civilians.
They were not able to reach the city presumably because they were stopped by the Russian military which controls the surrounding countryside. They're
actually detained for a night Sunday to Monday, but they were able to return finally across frontlines here to Zaporizhzhia in the past couple of
hours in a convoy bringing some 500 Ukrainian civilians here to Ukrainian controlled territory, which is an immense relief for people who were trying
to get to safer territory.
When it comes to the physical costs that this war is incurring on ordinary people one place where you can see it is in the hospitals. It is very
disturbing, difficult to see up close. So I have to warn viewers, that the images in this next report are deeply disturbing.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WATSON (voice over): Shattered bodies in the intensive care unit of a Ukrainian hospital. Men and women from the Ukrainian military whose war
wounds are so catastrophic they need machines to breathe. These deeply uncomfortable images a glimpse of the physical toll this conflict is taking
on both soldiers and civilians.
WATSON (on camera): The general director of the hospital says that after the first couple of days of this new war, at least 30 medical personnel
resigned because of just the trauma of seeing these kinds of injuries up close.
WATSON (voice over): A soldier named - wants to communicate.
WATSON (on camera): He can't speak because he's still on a ventilator. He has regained consciousness after 11 days in a coma.
WATSON (voice over): We won't identify him because doctors say his family does not yet know of his injuries.
WATSON (on camera): He has one child--
WATSON (voice over): A daughter he signals 13 years old. Writing in my notebook - tells me he's been in the military for two years.
WATSON (on camera): The doctor says that he has a very good chance of surviving very serious shrapnel injuries to his body. We were given
permission to film here provided we not name the hospital or the city that we're in. And that's because the Ukrainian authorities fear that that
information could lead to the Russian military directly targeting this hospital.
WATSON (voice over): In every room here there's a patient whose bones and tissues have been ripped apart by flying metal.
WATSON (on camera): He is a volunteer. He signed up on the second day of this war in 2022.
WATSON (voice over): This electrician turned volunteer soldier comes from the Russian speaking city of Kharkiv. Three days ago a battle left him with
two broken arms and wounds to the stomach.
WATSON (on camera): Vladimir says his sister lives in Russia and he no longer communicates with her. I asked why he said that she believes that
the Ukrainians are enemies. This is a family that is split apart by this war and different narratives of who started it.
[09:10:00]
WATSON (voice over): Vladimir and the soldier with a fresh amputation lying next to him both insist that only force can stop Russia's war on this
country. Down the hall I meet a young civilian also horrifically wounded.
WATSON (on camera): Deema is 21 years old. Where are you from?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mariupol.
WATSON (voice over): Deema is a recent University graduate photographed here with his mother Natasha. My mother died when this happened to me he
says adding I've tried it off already. I'm calmer now.
He says on the night of March 9th, he and his mother were hiding in the bathroom of a two story house in the center of Mariupol when they heard
warplanes overhead bombing the neighborhood. Mother and son were hiding in the bathroom shortly before 1 am he says when the bomb hit the house. When
he woke up, his legs were gone. He never saw his mother again. During my visit, a friend gives Deema a phone.
WATSON (on camera): This is the first time he seeing the building where he and his mother were sheltering when they were hit. The red car here that is
destroyed in front of the ruined building was his mother's car. Of course I get angry. I get sad. I get depressed at times, but I can't lose my cool
because those who did this to me they probably want me to sit here crying and weeping.
WATSON (voice over): Don't let the silence in these halls fool you. There is deep seething anger in this hospital at the country that launched this
unprovoked war on Ukraine.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WATSON: Julia the Ukrainian authority's desire and their demand to keep the name of the hospital and its location secret is not driven by paranoia. The
United Nations says it has documented at least 85 attacks on health facilities since the Russian military invaded Ukraine.
85 attacks it's more than one a day, which killed at least 72 people, the aid organization "Doctors without Borders" - their team in the southern
Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv personally witnessed and survived an attack on the city's oncology hospital that also struck the neighboring pediatric
hospital with what the team thinks may have been clustered munitions.
And there's actually security camera footage of what appears to be this attack where you can see parked ambulances being hit by explosions.
"Doctors without Borders" they say that they saw at least one person dead after the attack the vehicles - windows with their own vehicle were blown
in by the blast.
And they say that there were at least three attacks - there were at least three hospitals attacked in just two days in Mykolaiv in this week. So
there is a pattern of hospitals being hit. And it's happening so frequently that it suggests it is deliberate Julia.
CHATTERLEY: It feels like systematic targeting to your point. My mind goes to President Zelenskyy when he was speaking to the UN Security Council
yesterday and questioning their purpose in the face of this. What more can be done.
Ivan, I wanted to ask you about Yuri, who was one of the first victims that you spoke to there and you couldn't show his face. And he said that he had
the 13 year old daughter but his family weren't aware yet of his shrapnel injuries. Do you know why that is because his family's been evacuated or
why they haven't been able to contact his family and let them know?
WATSON: I would only be able to speculate and you're right to stress the fact that there are millions and millions of Ukrainians who've been
displaced across borders, more than 4 million refugees, and internally in Ukraine as well.
In the case of that soldier, he also has the complicating factor that he was in a coma for 11 days, and had just regained consciousness for about
two days by the time we met him. So there may not have been a means of communication with the family at that stage.
I'll add one additional heartbreaking detail that I learned in the visit there is that the hospital administrators say that they have mothers coming
to their hospital every day looking for missing children, presumably in the armed forces and that sometimes they simply cannot answer the whereabouts
of people who are missing.
And another just absolutely staggering anecdote just a nightmare that was described to me, they said that a family civilians pulled up in a car with
their adult daughter in the back of the car with her head severed from her body.
[09:15:00]
WATSON: And that the family was asking at that point, if there was anything that the medical staff could do to help their daughter who clearly was dead
or had been killed by that attack.
I'm giving that as an example of their ordinary people who are not prepared to deal with the trauma and the shock of what is happening to their
communities with devastating weapons that are being fired from miles from kilometers away, who are then struggling to deal with something and I don't
think you or I or any viewer could ever begin to have to begin to face.
And people are being thrust into these positions and are struggling with a reality that none of us should ever have to deal with Julia.
CHATTERLEY: I couldn't agree more. Ivan, thank you for sharing it because we need to know these things and we need to understand these things and our
hearts so with all of those families, and all of those people. Ivan Watson there thank you. We're back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back! The United States and its allies are expected to announce sweeping new penalties as soon as today targeting the Russian
President's children, as well as Russian government officials and their family members. New sanctions on Russian banks are expected too, all this
as Russia finds it increasingly difficult to make payments on its own foreign debt. Clare Sebastian joins me now. Clare, what can we expect from
the United States and the EU today?
CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, both Julia clearly accelerating their sanctions regimes their timelines in response to the horrific images
we're seeing coming out of Ukraine, particularly the towns formerly occupied by Russia.
We're expected to hear from the U.S. that they're really sort of tightening existing categories of sanctions things like banning new investment in
Russia. They had previously banned investment in the energy sector tightening sanctions on financial institutions and state owned enterprises.
More individuals likely to be sanctioned including perhaps the adult daughters of Vladimir Putin himself we don't know much about them or their
whereabouts. That's according to an administration official. But when it comes to the EU, we know that today EU Ambassadors are meeting.
[09:20:00]
SEBASTIAN: We're hearing from EU sources that there is broad agreement on the need to move quickly to adopt this fifth package of sanctions that's
been proposed that they are ironing out technicalities and the talks could go into tomorrow.
But this is really significant because the EU is now going there, Julia and there is energy. They have proposed a full ban on coal imports from Russia
that is very significant. The EU is the biggest customer for Russian coal. It is the smallest, sort of the fossil fuels; oil and gas are clearly much
bigger.
But very significant in itself it shows that they're willing to take that step and inflict that potential price raises and disruption on their
citizens. And they have said as Ursula Von Der Leyen said today, that this won't be the end of it, there will be more sanctions and they will look
into oil, she said.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, and energy, of course, is the Achilles heel to the broader sanctions package, because so much cash is pumped to Russia in order to pay
for it from the EU. We've talked about it on the show before it was quantified today by the EU's High Representative Joseph Burrell.
And he also provided a contrast how much money's paid in terms of gas supplies that come into the EU, but also how much economic support has been
provided to Ukraine. Just listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOSEP BORRELL, EUROPEAN HIGH COMMISSION: We have given Ukraine, 1 billion Euros it might seem a lot but 1 billion Euros is what we pay put in
everyday for the energy he provides us. Since the beginning of the war, we have given him 35 billion Euros compare that to the 1 billion Euros that we
have given to Ukraine in arms and weapons.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: 35 billion Euros paid to Russia since this war began for EU energy supplies that have a cushioning effect on the Russian economy,
Clare, but we are seeing signs of the impact of the sanctions too.
SEBASTIAN: Yes, it's definitely worth noting, Julia that those sanctions are moving target. So as they come in gradually, the Russian economy does
adapt. And we've seen it shown resilience in the fact for example, that the Ruble has now rebounded mostly to the level it was when the war broke out.
But we are seeing certainly weak points. This is the economy that is very hard hit by the sanctions, for example, the measure that the U.S. brought
in this week to ban Russia from paying down its debt using those frozen reserves that had previously allowed them to keep doing that.
That means that Russia will have to use either the unfrozen half of its foreign currency reserves or new revenue that could push it closer to a
default. The Russian government though, denying that the Speaker of the State Duma saying today that this only hurts the U.S. that Russia has the
money to make these payments, and it just weakens trust in the dollar.
And there's another sort of window onto the Russian economy that I want to bring you because it is difficult to get a sort of a true sense of what's
happening there. The car market seems to be sort of in some kind of collapse. Sales were down 63 percent of new cars in March, according to the
Association of European Businesses, which represents foreign investors in Russia.
That is because of a combination of factors. The collapse in the Ruble is raising; prices, a lot of foreign carmakers have pulled out stopped
production banned exports. But we're also seeing that the local car makers, the likes of AvtoVAZ, which is Russia's biggest car maker accounted for
about one in five sales last year.
They really have to sort of try to step in to rescue their supply chains, redesign cards, or even that use less foreign components. The point of all
this is that the isolation is affecting Russia; the government is scrambling to try to cope with it to prevent mass unemployment and a drop
in living standards. And it is feeling the squeeze even as these sanctions regimes tighten.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's interesting, isn't it? You wonder how much of that decline there is about the supply chains and how much is down to sheer
demand, perhaps not being there or adjusting in the face of the challenges but we can only guess. Clare Sebastian, thank you so much for that. We'll
discuss this further later on in the show.
For now, let's talk about the spillover effects. Ukraine's neighboring country of Poland has seen more than 2 million refugees cross its border,
mostly women and children. They're finding safety in shelters, homes and even office buildings. CNN's Kyung Lah has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KYUNG LAH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): This office building in downtown Warsaw is not just real estate it's refuge. Ukrainian children play with
toys and what used to be a storage room. Strollers sit in corporate hallways, computer desks are dining room tables.
Two stories of the seventh floor office building are now home to refugees. Like 18 month old Milana and her mother. We feel safe she says there are no
sirens no horrible sounds. Two and a half million Ukrainians nearly all women and children have crossed into Poland since the start of the war.
LAH (on camera): And you just remove the lights?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We removed the lights and we installed this here.
[09:25:00]
LAH (voice over): The country has managed to absorb them in just six weeks through ingenuity.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Like elevators that serves offices. And behind the column, there is an elevator that serves just refugees.
LAH (voice over): Anna Fijalkowska is CEO for TFG Asset Management, which owns the building.
ANNA FIJALKOWSKA, CEO, TFG ASSET MANAGEMENT: We have beds and shelves, whatever is necessary.
LAH (voice over): The war started on a Thursday, but company had the space available and pivoted from commerce to crisis.
FIJALKOWSKA: So here we had like a small reception desk.
LAH (voice over): Three days later--
FIJALKOWSKA: None of this existed. It was just a matter of putting an additional installation in piping.
LAH (voice over): They had the first of nearly 250 women and children move in.
FIJALKOWSKA: We have this place we can do something. Do something for real people, right? So we just decided to do it.
LAH (on camera): Was that the hard part or the easy part?
FIJALKOWSKA: That was the easiest part to set it up. The hardest part right now is to make them feel good; solve their problems, the refugees problems.
LAH (voice over): Seven year old - lives here with her mother Oksana --. This used to be office furniture, she explains with the addition of a
donated bed.
LAH (on camera): Oh, it is. It's really good--
LAH (voice over): This has been home since the start of the war. She is an accountant her husband fights into Dnipro near the Eastern Flank.
LAH (on camera): Oh, no, please talk to him.
LAH (voice over): They never know when he'll be able to call.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This is my husband's marks.
LAH (voice over): I can't comprehend it says. It's as if we're in a 40 day horror movie and we can't wake up. One floor above employees do their best
to carry on with their jobs.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I do not know anybody who is saying I don't care. Everybody cares. Everybody wants to help.
LAH (voice over): His employees sending whatever they can downstairs.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Whatever is needed to either desk, either vacuum cleaner, we just try to help a supplement to our new neighbors.
LAH (voice over): But war has meant the days of business as usual, are over.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We were really also learning from them. We see how they are coping with just tragic events in this tragic situation? And it's
really made you feel happy, but also makes you feel that you're doing something good. Kyung Lah CNN, Warsaw Poland.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: Coming up food shortages, rampant inflation and soaring unemployment, a former economic adviser to Moscow predicting a GDP plunge
of 20 percent and a 50 percent inflationary surge his perspective just ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:30:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back! To many observers in the West evidence of Russian atrocities in Bucha and other Ukrainian cities is irrefutable and clear
evidence of war crimes. For Moscow though and its supporters on Kremlin controlled media the Russia massacre is part of an elaborate hoax intended
to weaken Russia and topple its leaders.
Matthew Chance reports on this increasingly heated war of words and images. And we must warn you many of the images in this report are graphic.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): If you think Russian soldiers are humans, he says, just look at this the shocked
words of a Ukrainian driver recording these appalling scenes on the road into Bucha. But what took place here is beyond words, beyond outrage.
Ukrainian officials say the bodies being retrieved are of civilians killed by Russian forces in the tank. Some with their hands tied behind their
backs before being shot dead. Evidence of war crimes, charged the Kremlin and its propaganda machine is categorically denying.
This is how one of the top anchors on Russian state television explained the massacre. It must have been the work of British specialists he says,
because the town of Bucha and the English word butcher sounds so similar. Maybe it's a joke no one's laughing. Certainly not the Kremlin spokesman
Dmitry Peskov who's dubbed the killings a well-staged tragic show and a forgery to try to denigrate the Russian army.
A huge amount of data he told journalists clearly indicates this is faked staged; say Russian officials after their troops had left. But satellite
images of Bucha first published by The New York Times showed bodies had been strewn across the streets there for weeks, at least from March the
18th when the town was under Russian control photographic evidence that contradicts the Kremlin's claims.
It's also raising concerns that more killings will be unearth as Russian forces withdraw. The Ukrainian President seen here visiting Bucha accusing
Russia of trying to hide the traces of their crimes in other parts of Ukraine that remain under Russian control.
It makes a peace deal even harder. Every day we find people in barrels strangled or tortured in basements, President Zelenskyy says. It's very
difficult to negotiate when you see what they have done here yet.
It is sickening to accept, but the sacrifice of these people may have actually pushed back the chances of peace in Ukraine instead of bringing
this appalling conflict to an end. Matthew Chance, CNN.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: Russians may question the authenticity of images coming from the Ukraine war. It will be much harder for them to avoid the economic
fallout from the conflict.
[09:35:00]
CHATTERLEY: Russia now facing a fifth round of Western sanctions, as we've discussed set to be announced as soon as today targeting the government
elite, and their families as well as banks and state owned businesses, and the energy sector too. My next guest see sanctions could trigger a 20
percent plunge in Russia's GDP this year.
And President Putin has made Russia fail as a state. Anders Aslund is a Former Economic Adviser to both Russia and Ukraine and the Author of the
book "Russia's Crony Capitalism: The path from market economy to Kleptocracy".
And it's great to have you on the show. When I saw you tweet that point, about a failed state, I googled the definition to remind myself and the
definition from that I saw was that when the political and economic system become so weak, the government is no longer in control. We're not there
yet.
ANDERS ASLUND, FORMER ECONOMIC ADVISER TO RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: But we are very close to it. What Putin has done very systematically is that he has de
institutionalized Russia. So there is only one institution apart from the president and that's a secret police and you can't really run a state like
this.
Russia has not had economic growth since 2014 that is when Russia started attacking Ukraine and the Western sanction that hit. And there are no
values that are being promoted by this regime Putin looks increasingly like Adolf Hitler a wild mystical idea of thousand year realm without anything
that he wants to do for the people.
CHATTERLEY: As you've said, and you've said it many times, he looks in disinterested in developing the Russian economy. He's created social
misery. You also say he's proven he's unable to govern. If we're close to that point of failed state where you see some kind of response from the
people how far away are we Anders because that's crucial for Ukraine today?
ASLUND: Yes, it's very difficult to know, of course. But there are two big problems. One is the war in Ukraine, which I think Russia is losing. And
the other is the economic problems in Russia. So we can simplify the war in Ukraine to two big battles, the battle of Kyiv that Ukraine has won.
And now we are expecting a big battle over Donbas, my guess is that Ukraine will win that also. And they might think that Putin looks like - the second
of the Russia Japanese war, which started a revolution in Russia that didn't bring him down then but really weakened the transfer of power before
forever.
And the other is the economic situation where we right now have this sort of land, things have calmed down. The Ruble has come back, thanks to big
interventions by the Central Bank, abolishing the convertibility of the Ruble and lots of regulations, but that is not likely to hold.
And the big thing that was mentioned here before it is - automotive production tank production, all of it will stop because they don't have
same equal computers - conductors and other details. So lots of manufacturing is set to stop, but it has not stopped as yet. Because it's
dependent on imports that will no longer becoming.
CHATTERLEY: And when you're talking about a GDP drop of 20 percent of inflation and 50 percent we're talking economic depression style economics.
Is that what we see this year? Or does that - you're talking about persist for a while? I know it's so difficult to gauge what's going on? But again,
it's this pressure of every minute counting in terms of this war?
ASLUND: Well, I would expect a real collapse that one of these shocks should be sufficient to take out the leader. But when I talk to Russian
opposition people they say that the Putin says secret police is far too strong. A coup from the top is not possible.
So they would rather hope for a collapse from below. But way the Russian propaganda being extremely hard and the latest seemingly independent poll
from the - claimed that 83 percent of Russians approval for Putin that makes it difficult. Putin has a majority in Russia behind him while he has
perhaps 1/3 firmly against him. And then it's difficult to get the nation to wake up rough is so isolated and so misinformed today.
[09:40:00]
CHATTERLEY: I mean, I guess my next question would be when does the effect become so damaging whether it's people fighting over food hyperinflation,
for example? It doesn't matter who you blame whether it's the government and their actions or the West for their actions over sanctions and how
that's portrayed. It's the pure misery internally that creates a backlash. When do you get to that point?
ASLUND: Well, I think if you get serious backlash, it will probably come first. When the U.S. imposed its severe sanctions on Venezuela in 2009 GDP
fell by 35 percent. And it looks as if it looked as if Madura would fall, he didn't, he survived and now he looks pretty safe in his place.
We've also seen economic catastrophes in North Korea, Iran, seeing that banter and the rulers have stayed in place. It's not obvious, but the
combination of lost war and economic catastrophe should naturally lead to change. But there's no guarantee if it comes down early.
CHATTERLEY: We've come full circle on the prospect of being a failed state, but still, the government the leadership remaining in place. You raised a
very important point that I want to bring to people too and it's about connecting the dots of what we're seeing elsewhere in the world.
And we know the consequences of this in combination with what we've been through in the last two to three years. Pricing pressures, food shortages,
for example, we're seeing political wobbles in countries like Sri Lanka in Pakistan.
Severe wobbles I'm talking about with the economic pressures that we're seeing the consequences of this war, and the spillover effects, could bring
down other governments and create political instability in many other parts of the world.
ASLUND: Indeed, and I'm happy that you mentioned the Sri Lankan and Pakistan, because why are they having problem mainly because of high wheat
prices, because they are highly dependent on wheat. The countries in that category or Egypt, where we would expect problems, because wheat prices are
now up the three, four times from course they were, and they will rise further.
Because 30 percent of all wheat that is being exported in the world comes from the Black Sea. And the Russians have no minded all the Ukrainian
ports, so nothing can come out from them. So there will be worse problems in the emerging economies because of this.
CHATTERLEY: You also raise a very important point as well, I think in terms of the discussion about secondary sanctions. You've pointed out that
shipping as a whole in the restrictions that have been created. And it's very important for the cushioning effect of purchasing countries like China
and India.
There needs to be a firm look at perhaps sanctioning the biggest shipping company in Russia too. And just talk to me about this because this is
another potential pivot point, and an asphyxiation point, I think, for the Russian economy, for better or worse.
ASLUND: Yes, - is the big Russian state shipping company. The UK has sanctioned it so far. And I would guess that the EU and the U.S. will also
do so. But what the EU is doing today, if I follow through is that we are sanctioning all shipping.
The three Baltic countries have already done so that no Russian ship will be allowed to enter a European Port. And the most important part of this is
that the Russian oil by and large goes out through the ports around St. Petersburg, in relatively small tankers.
And then the oil goes to Rotterdam in the Netherlands. And it be reloaded where, for example, sent to China and India where Rotterdam being
sanctioned that's most of Russia's oil exports. So this is almost as effective as a sanctioning of Russian oil you'll say of half of its oil.
And you could add to that insurance, which I think will be coming up next. And people don't think of insurance, because it will obscure but you can't
transport anything without insurance.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, if you can't insure their ships, and you can't send them around the world, which is an important point, too. And also, to your point
as well about the need for help for Ukraine to deal with those mines that are now there as well.
Anders it's great to chat to you. I could keep you talking for another 30 minutes, but I have to let you go. Anders Aslund there Former Economic
Adviser to both Russia and Ukraine and the Author of the book "Russia's Crony Capitalism: The path for market economy to Kleptocracy" a good read.
We're back after this. Stay with us. Thank you, sir.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:45:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back! Full credit to Lithuania; the first EU country to stop all imports of Russian gas and it's urging other countries to do the
same. Our Richard Quest spoke to the president about that decision.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GITANAS NAUSEDA, LITHUANIAN PRESIDENT: If we are talking about the energy sector, this was a story of blackmailing and pressure. So this was the
reason why we decided very early to implement very important infrastructure projects in my country.
And I would like to mention also oil terminal, which was built in 1999. It allowed us to import crude oil through the Baltic Sea and you mentioned LNG
terminal which was built in 2014 with the symbolic name independence.
Actually, this is a cornerstone of our independence from the natural gas from Russia. So this is the reason why we have decided to stop to buy
Russian oil and Russian gas. And we would like that other countries of European Union would follow our example. Or other countries of - Estonia
followed our example immediately.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN CORRESPONDET: So if we take Germany, France, Czech Republic, all those other countries, the Netherlands that are very large
net importers, and say that they can't do it immediately. Well, Mr. President, this genocide that's been going on in Europe, if they can't stop
it now, if they can't stop imports now, what do you say?
NAUSEDA: We have to do what we can in order to stop this violence to stop these atrocities of Putin's war. And we made our contribution to these
efforts. And I think our colleagues could do the same. Netherlands, Germany, other countries, I understand the situation is slightly different.
But this is a price we have to pay right now just to be solider with the nation of Ukrainians. And we started just very early because Lithuania
understood that we didn't have any illusions regarding Russia.
We understood that this is a long term threat to European Union to the democracy and now the countries - other countries of Western Europe should
realize that we have to deal this very dangerous adversity and we have to do all the measures to implement all the measures which will lead to the
energy independence.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
[09:50:00]
CHATTERLEY: Still to come, Elon Musk adds another roll to his resume all the details after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back! U.S. and European stocks facing pressure once again at the midweek point as the West gears up for a new round of economic
sanctions on Russia. And a once dovish fed official Governor Lael Brainard warning the Central Bank must reduce its balance sheet aggressively to
control pricing pressures.
Deutsche Bank now sees a chance for a soft U.S. economic landing is fading fast as the Federal Reserve shifts into tightening overdrive. Deutsche Bank
now the first global banking giant to make a U.S. recession call.
And all lines on Twitter surprising everyone when it's announced a new addition to its board of directors Elon Musk. The question now what does
Musk plan to do in his new role? The world's wealthiest person is now Twitter's largest individual shareholder, owning 9.2 percent of its shares.
CNN's Paula Monica joins us to discuss Paul, great to see you. It means more polling, I can tell you that. They have a long and colorful history
together SEC violations defamations lawsuits threatening journalists. You name it. What is he going to do, Paul?
PAUL R. LA MONICA, CNN REPORTER: Yes, that is going to be very fascinating to watch Julia, as you point out. Musk has been an incredibly active
presence on Twitter to the consternation of regulators.
And I would imagine sometimes Twitter executives themselves but Elon Musk modifying what I find interesting. He's filing when he took this more than
9 percent stake in Twitter, it is no longer considered a passive stake.
It is an active stake and he gets that seat on the board. He is obviously going to be pushing for big changes. And one of those changes seemingly
might be already coming to fruition Twitter confirming that it's working on some sort of edit feature. It's going to start with its Twitter blue
product and have an edit button there remains to be seen exactly how that's going to work though.
CHATTERLEY: It raises questions for me about moderation. How on earth is Twitter ever going to successfully moderate its largest shareholder or
individual shareholder and now board member?
MONICA: I don't know if they can I mean. Elon Musk is someone that you know clearly no one has been able to figure out how you silence him. He is
incredibly vocal. He will pay SEC fines apparently if he runs into trouble with regulators.
And I would imagine that one at you know people at Twitter must be hoping that he is going to be more of a cooperative force now that he has a vested
interest in Twitter's success.
[09:55:00]
MONICA: It's not just a matter of him complaining as a user, he is also the largest stakeholder. You'd have to think that he will not want to do things
that will damage the market value of Twitter. But stranger things have happened with Elon Musk and social media before so I don't think we can
rule out anything Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, cooperative force. We have a moment of silence now as the tumble goes past.
MONICA: Musk hopefully - learn to be a little bit more of a cooperative player kind of using the - what we all learned in kindergarten about
playing nice--
CHATTERLEY: --what a great pulpit to whack the opposition and the competition, though, I have to say and I talked about one thing he has
brought his wealth. I mean what a share price rally the moment that news broke.
Yes, I've been told to shut up as always. Paul R. LA Monica. Thank you for that. That's it for the show. Stay with CNN "Connect the World" with Becky
Anderson is up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
