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First Move with Julia Chatterley
Pro-Democracy Rallies Head after Attacks on Government Buildings; Virgin Orbit Stock Price Plunges Premarket; Berlinger: The Warning Signs were there with Madoff; World Bank: Emerging Market Economies will be hit Hard this Year; Scientist: CFCS have very Long Lifetimes so process is Slow; Prince Harry's Memoir "Spare" Hits Bookstores. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired January 10, 2023 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN HOST FIRST MOVE: A warm welcome to "First Move", great to have you with us this Tuesday. And a lot to get to this hour
including rebel round up for more than 1000 protesters now detained in Brazil after Sunday's January the 6th style attack. President Lula da
Silva, promising a prosecution solution as pressure grows in the United States to extradite Former President Jair Bolsonaro.
And flight to plight the first satellite launch in U.K. history is a virgin mission misfire shares a virgin orbit tumbling to Earth too. On that news
pre market Prince Harry hoping his launch today has more success than memoir Spare, of course out officially today. And in the meantime, Google
stocks also launch pad at laggards.
Take a look at this a cautious tone as Investors assess recent gains but in Europe well that's still near seven month highs is Goldman Sachs now
predicts no Eurozone recession. Hopes that the U.S. Fed will reboot its rockets and downshift further on rate hikes also giving some recent support
to shares too I think. But as you can see a sea of red on your screen call it perhaps a quarter re-orders.
Fed members Monday saying the Central Bank could downshift to just a quarter point hikes in the future. But they still see rates rising above 5
percent later this year, so no slowdown yet. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking this hour too at the Central Bank conference over in Sweden.
We'll see if he says anything about that rate debate Powell, on the prowl amid reopening refocusing. It's a mixed day as you can see across Asia but
fresh hopes for a China Economic bounce and reinvigorated spending by Chinese consumers following the end of those zero COVID restrictions.
The benchmark MSCI Asian stock index rising into new bull market territory a 20 percent rise from recent lows in other words, even as the toll at
Beijing's sudden zero COVID pivot continues to be counted.
The HANG SENG now up almost 8 percent year to date on those reopening hopes and we've got plenty more on China in just a moment's time. But first, we
begin in Brazil and pro-democracy rallies held across the nation on Monday. In response to Sunday's violent attacks on key government buildings by
supporters of Former President Jair Bolsonaro. The country's current President Lula strongly condemning the violence.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA, BRAZILLIAN PRESIDENT: This time people didn't have a demanding agenda. They had nothing to claim from the government.
What they want is a coup and there won't be a coup, because they have to learn that democracy is the most complicated thing for us to do, because it
requires putting up with others and living with people we don't like. But it is the only regime that allows everyone to have a chance to compete and
whoever wins the right to govern.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Meanwhile, Bolsonaro, tweeted a photo of himself in a hospital bed in the U.S. state of Florida, saying he's receiving treatment for
injuries from a 2018 knife attack. Shasta Darlington joins us from San Paulo where a big pro government rally was held. Shasta, great to have you
with us, what were people there saying just give us a sense of how many people to turned up to that rally?
SHASTA DARLINGTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Julia, I'm standing right here on Avenue the Paulista in the heart of Sao Paulo. This is just one of the
many locations across the country from Rio to Brasilia excuse the noise, where thousands of people turned out not only to show their support for the
new President Lula.
But also to denounce the attacks on Brasilia were supporters of the Former President Jair Bolsonaro have claimed without any evidence that the
elections were rigged. So they really came out here to do what they say was defending democracy itself. Take a listen to one of the supporters who came
out last night.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NETO DUARTE, PRO-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATOR: Totally absurd. It's the worst moment in our history after the 1964 dictatorship. I think everyone was
appalled by the images we saw in the National Congress. So I think the response is this. It was well done occupying the Paulista Avenue. The fight
now is to support the government that was democratically elected, and we are not going to leave the streets. That is the message.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DARLINGTON: And of course, Lula himself, met with the 27 governors from all over Brazil at the Presidential palace. They gave a show of force and
support standing out in front of the palace. And he also criticizes the Police and the intelligence of Brasilia for not only doing more to prevent
these attacks, which were widely publicized on social media and even traditional media, but also for apparently enabling the protesters as they
neared the Capitol and we all know what happened after that.
[09:05:00]
DARLINGTON: They marched on Congress, on the Supreme Court and on the Presidential palace, smashing windows, trashing the place, ransacking,
flooding, destroying property. And all while Bolsonaro was in Florida he left before he was supposed to hand over the Presidential sash to Lula. And
then post, the pictures of Lula himself last night on social media in a hospital saying that he was there to check up on his abdomen, which was
injured in 2018 when he was stabbed during a campaign event.
So we're waiting to hear more from him when he might or might not be coming back from Brazil. In the meantime, some 1500 people have been arrested or
detained here in Brazil involved in those anti-democratic acts. And who've also set up camps outside of army barracks demanding a military
intervention.
Well, those barracks, those camps have been dismantled. And now the hard work starts for Lula himself. So these attacks showed that this is a
sharply divided country. And a lot of people have bought into Conspiracy theories. Really a parallel to what we saw in the United States two years
ago on January 6, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: I was going to say sounds familiar. Shasta Darlington, thank you for being on the story there for us. To Ukraine now fighting is
intensifying in the Donbas region as the war enters its 11 month. Ukraine stays the Russians are focusing their efforts on capturing the mining town
of Soledar. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the mining town is now completely destroyed, but he vowed Ukraine would ultimately prevail.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE: The battle for the Donbas continues and although the occupiers have now concentrated their greatest
efforts on Soledar. The result of this difficult and prolonged battle will be the liberation of our entire Donbas.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: And Scott McLean joins us now from Kyiv. Scott I saw comments this morning from the Head of Wagner group praising the honor of the
Ukrainian fighters here. I think it's important for you to begin just by explaining the strategic importance of Soledar. Why it's so pivotal to both
sides in this battle?
SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right Julia, the Head of the Wagner group the some people call it Putin's private army said that the
Ukrainians were defending it with honor. And it is a big deal for the Russians to be able to capture this town for a few reasons. First off, they
have not had success in nearby Bakhmut where the Head of the Wagner group says the Ukrainians have it extremely well-fortified.
The other reason why Soledar is so important is that it has a mineshaft there that goes into a salt mine, which is an ideal place to hide weapons,
high troops. Also if the Ukrainians war to be able to capture Soledar that would allow them to attack Bakhmut this other strategic part, this other
strategic town along the front line from a different angle from the north, because of course coming from the east, they have had no luck at all.
If you believe Julia the Head of the Donetsk People's Republic, the Russians are very close to actually capturing Soledar though they didn't
provide any evidence to actually back that up. The Ukrainians have been pretty honest about the fact that the fighting there is extremely
difficult.
That's how President Zelenskyy described it last night. He also said that there are almost no walls left standing. He also said there's almost no
people left alive right now and that the landscape is littered with corpses and scarred by all of the strikes there.
Even yesterday, the Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said that the Russians had amassed a huge number of troops on the front line at
Soledar, a huge amount of weapons and equipment. And they were launching a powerful new assault using multiple launch rocket systems and using
artillery systems as well. And so the Ukrainians acknowledge that things are difficult.
We've just recently got a new update from Ukrainian Military within the last hour or so they told CNN that the situation is under control. And so
that are as they describe it, they also say that it's under control at the moment in Bakhmut. But they also did not rule out the possibility of
potentially withdrawing, potentially retreating from Soledar altogether.
They say that the rationale for that if it were to come to that would be to preserve the lives of the troops on the front lines so that they can live
to fight another day, regroup and then try to take back the territory if in fact, they lose it, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Scott McLean, there in Kyiv, thank you for that report. OK, let's move on to China now in their efforts to remove at COVID
restrictions. New satellite images showing evidence of crowding crematoriums and funeral homes across the country lines the vehicles can be
seen waiting outside of those buildings. These images were taken over six cities between late December and early January.
[09:10:00]
CHATTERLEY: Marc Stewart joins us now from Hong Kong with more, Marc, great to have you with us. It's very difficult for us to get a sense of the scale
now with the COVID outbreak and of course the sad loss of life tied to it particularly given the change in classification of what is a COVID related
death in China too. Focus on these images for us. What are they telling us? What can we glean?
MARC STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, Julia, these images from so high above, basically serves as confirmation for what we have seen on the
ground, not to sound too grim. But our team in Beijing has seen these lines into the crematorium. They have seen a steady stream of smoke into the air.
They have seen crates full of body bags. And all of this is really a stark contrast to the narrative that we have been hearing from the Chinese
government of 37 COVID deaths. Many family members, even the World Health Organization has been making statements, which show otherwise feel
otherwise show disagreement to that statistic of 37 deaths.
And Julia, as you mentioned, the criteria for a COVID death in China is very specific. It needs to be a respiratory death directly caused by the
virus. Something that outside observers again, including the World Health Organization, feel needs to be revived, revised, perhaps even be more
truthful, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Marc, thank you so much for that report, Mark Stewart there. And the U.K. suffered a setback in its ambitions to launch satellites into
Earth orbit on Monday in the first ever space mission to take off from British soil. Virgin orbit was aiming to place nine satellites into orbit.
The delivery vehicle was a rocket launched from a modified Boeing 747 called 'Cosmic girl'. Yet despite initial positive signs, it did not end
well.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRISTOPHER RELF, DIR. OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING & VERIFICATION OF VIRGIN ORBIT: It appears that launcher one has suffered anomaly which will prevent
us from making orbit for this mission. We are looking at the information and data that we have gotten.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: And his immediate financial impact Virgin orbit's stock price down a whopping 21 percent or near in the pre-market session. Tom Foreman
joins us now. Tom, we heard that Christopher welfare, the director of systems engineering and verification for Virgin orbit call it an anomaly.
Do we have any sense of what happened?
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We don't know what happened. We know when it happened. They dropped this rocket from the planet about 35,000 feet
just off the Southern coast of Ireland there. It took off and for quite some time, everything seemed fine. It burned through the first stage.
It ignited the second stage it was in space. And according to the company statement, sometime during the first burn of that second stage, it was
supposed to burn a while coasts and then reignite to position itself to deploy the satellites. Sometime during this first burn, they suffered this
anomaly.
Now what that is we don't know. We don't know if the rocket blew up if they lost control of the rocket, or if the rocket just shut itself down because
something wasn't working right. But that's where it happened. We still don't know what happened.
CHATTERLEY: Do you think they have a good sense, though, Tom, they'll know already. Sort of precisely what went wrong, what the fix perhaps is and how
long it might take?
FOREMAN: Well, I think they'll have an educated guess at this point. They have a ton of data coming back from a ship like this. They'll have an
educated guess, but guess is only gets you so far. And in space engineering you can't guess if you can avoid it, you need to know for sure. So I'm sure
that they are just poring over this data right now, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, I mean, yes, we were talking about it yesterday. And obviously you were telling us about your daughter's sort of interest and
the science behind this in particular, too. And I just look at that share price reaction, that's a dramatic financial hit that the company is taking,
probably dwarfing the financial cost of whatever the fix isn't getting this back up there.
Just in terms of sentiment, how is it? How important is it for them to fix this situation and say, look, you know, we're going to try again. We've got
this under control.
FOREMAN: I would say, even to my daughter, she actually worked on this system a couple of years ago, not this particular rocket with this system.
I think it is critical is a mild word at this point, that not only does whenever you lose a rocket like this, not only have you lost years of work,
millions of dollars, the investment of the satellite people as well, but in this very crowded space sector. We're private spaceflight is incredibly
competitive right now.
You have exposed yourself to an economic danger here that for any given company could be existential. Remember, Virgin orbit has only successfully
launched this system five times they had one failure. Now they've had two failures, five successful launches. They were talking about having as many
as 20 launches a year. Right now that seems very far away.
[09:15:00]
FOREMAN: The question is with stocks falling like that, with so many other people competing for it out there and with their system being such a unique
system. Can you get enough confidence in the market for people to stick with the company and say we still believe this can work? Because as you and
I were talking just yesterday, this idea is so novel, it does represent opportunities for countries like the U.K. and many others that want to be
in the space launching business. We just don't know if the business will support that want.
CHATTERLEY: Right? You got to get it right? Tom, great to get your insights once again thank you so much for that. OK, straight ahead.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He was a financial sociopath, a serial financial killer.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: The top financier to Ponzi mastermind, Bernie Madoff's role in one of the greatest financial crimes in history is on display in a new Docu
series we speak to its Director after the break and later read good news for Mother Earth. Efforts to mend the ozone layer are working the co-Chair
of the Montreal Protocol that aimed to help that will join us to discuss.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move"! After the 2008 financial crisis Bernie Madoff became a household name synonymous with one of the biggest
financial crimes in history. Now a new four part Docu series, Madoff, the Monster of Wall Street's or Netflix dives into Madoff's multibillion dollar
Ponzi scheme, just how he was able to fool the world for decades.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Nothing my team did stop made up, nothing the government did stop made on. He blew up because the markets blew up in 2008.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: And Madoff's name came up recently once again in comparison to Sam Bankman-Fried. The disgraced CEO of FTX, who now faces criminal charges
including fraud, and Conspiracy. Well, the Director of the Madoff series says while SPF wasn't running a Ponzi scheme.
He does see similarities between the Former King of Crypto and Bernie Madoff. And I'm pleased to say joining us now with Joe Berlinger. He is the
Director of Madoff, the Monster of Wall Street on Netflix. Joe, it is fantastic to have you on. Perfect timing I think with this Docu series.
JOE BERLINGER, DIRECTOR, "MADOFF: THE MONSTER OF WALL STREET": I know, you would have thought, you know, I'm surprised people have really responded
well to the documentary, I thought it would be a very narrowly focused thing.
[09:20:00]
BERLINGER: And I think the blowing up of FTX has made people realize that the made off story is still very resonant because we see some of the same
factors who have Investors and people who are taking other people's money, who should have known better, had done some due diligence, both with Bernie
and both with FTX. You see a charismatic leader selling a story that people are all too willing to believe. And you have, you know, the total failure
of government regulation. I mean, the SEC failure on the Madoff case is incredible. And there is regulatory failure in the crypto space in my
opinion, as well.
CHATTERLEY: Oh, a complete lack of it at this stage in the latter case, to your point. Do you know what this documentary makes me realize? And it's
quite fascinating, I think going over the story, once again, is how simplistic actually, the fraud was? And I think this is a crucial point,
hindsight, as always, is perfect site or 2020 site.
But I think this is something that you bring out and show in the documentary incredibly well. And something that we do really need to
understand today that there were people saying, hey, there's something not right here and the regulators ignored it. But also that it just at the
heart of it, this was a simple fraud.
BERLINGER: Oh, you know, that's the thing. You know, Madoff has been mythologized over the years as this evil genius, who single handedly duped
Wall Street. And that's such an oversimplification and a disservice. The point of the documentary is actually the fraud was pretty simplistic.
Even a little documentary filmmaker, like me understands that, for example, the returns he was saying were unrealistic, didn't measure the market. Even
somebody like me understands that his strategy employed an options strategy, the strict split strike conversion strategy that would have
required more options than are in existence. And the reason this is important is that people tend to look the other way when something is too
good to be true.
Now, I'm not blaming the actual victims, the mom and people who invested with somebody who was supposed to be watching out for the money. But those
feeder funds, the intermediaries, the people in the business who were getting these fat fees off of made of for directing money to them, they
should have done the due diligence, and they should have known better. So to me, this is a cautionary tale and we see it happening again with FTX.
CHATTERLEY: It's so important that you mentioned this because we've had this discussion on the show as well and it does tie to today. What media,
what Investors can do differently? And it does tie to demanding more transparency. And when I'm spoken to Investors since you said that they
didn't touch Madoff because they asked for documents and they weren't given them.
And if only people have been more demanding of more insight and more transparency, perhaps we could have solved it. And it wasn't the regulators
that caught Madoff; it was the tide going out. It was the financial crisis or in the case of Sam Bankman-Fried that the selloff in crypto assets. Joe,
that the real Savior here bizarrely, was that the downfall in asset prices.
BERLINGER: Yes, I mean, that's the scariest thing about the Madoff story is that you know, as you played the clip it's Harry Markopolos a famous
whistleblower, when the SEC five times in eight years with documentation, they didn't do anything about it. You know, the government didn't bring
them down ethics on Wall Street didn't bring him down look at certain companies wouldn't deal with Bernie. Well, Goldman Sachs, I mean, certain
companies needs something small.
You know, and it's just the warning signs were there and it's just the basic rules of investing, say, you shouldn't take something that you don't
understand or even the simple fact that. If I buy a share of stock, I get an annual report. Even if I buy one share of stock in an annual report and
a proxy statement, when you traded with Madoff, you didn't get annual reports that should have been a red flag right there you know.
CHATTERLEY: You know it's interesting, insufficient oversight I think is something that you portray perfectly in this documentary. What about greed?
What about basic greed? Because I think the other important part of this is Bernie Madoff had a viable business. It was enough.--
BERLINGER: Yes, you know, you can wrap this whole story around greed for Bernie. I mean, you know, he was an innovator. He helped, you know, create
the NASDAQ. He helped popularize electronic trading the fact that I can go on my Schwab account and immediately buy a share of stock at a very good
price and with no commission, you know, we owe that in part to Bernie.
[09:25:00]
BERLINGER: So his legitimate market making business should have been enough. But he really wanted to be loved guy on Wall Street and he really
wasn't enough. Same thing with the people that the feeder funds, they have Fairfield Greenwich, the Hedge funds. Just look the other way.
Again, the mom and pop Investors who were wiped out, they are blameless because they were investing in what was actually sold as a relatively
conservative fund. It's those middlemen that Bernie, you know that the small investor gave money to invest in Bernie. Those people totally looked
the other way, because they were getting double the fees.
You know, the standard fee, as you probably know, in Hedge funds is this 2 and 20 percent of the assets and 20 percent of the gains. And normally that
split between the feeder Fund and the posting of investing in, but Bernie said, hey, keep all the fees, I don't want the fees, that triggered greed.
They look the other way because they were getting double the fees. That's the bottom line on the Madoff's story just greed.
CHATTERLEY: And most people were involved and had a fear of missing out. We often talk about FOMO in financial markets as well. The sad part of this,
Joe, is that perhaps we haven't learned lessons in terms of needing more regulatory oversight and asking the right questions. Do you think we learn
now as a result of the work that you've done here of what we've seen perhaps, and obviously nothing's proven yet with Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX
but could be?
BERLINGER: I don't know, human nature is such I mean we see fraud on Wall Street every five to eight years. Massive fraud sometimes and it all comes
down to the same thing. People are too greedy, you know, to really inquire if they're making money. And there is something about regulation in this
country. The SEC is great at mopping up the mess, but you know, we want them to come, you know, before the mess happens. And that doesn't seem to
happen.
CHATTERLEY: Yes.
BERLINGER: So I hope we've learned our lesson, but I'm not so sure.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, unfortunately, I think I agree with you on this. I have to ask, are you pulling material together for the SPF, FTX documentary?
BERLINGER: Maybe we'll see. You know, a lot of people are on that story. I mean, the reason I wanted to do the Madoff story is it's, you know, we can
look at it in hindsight. And we and back then, you know Bernie became the poster child for all the ills of the financial crisis.
He got blamed for things that actually weren't his fault. And all these other people, you know, got off scot free, you know, from the mortgage
meltdown. So I thought it was important to take a look back now and really understand what happened and it wasn't the singular genius pulling the wool
over the eyes of the population.
It was it was this industry Wall Street that not everybody, of course, but the people involved with Bernie were just did not want to look too deeply
into it because they were making money, which is should be a real question to people. If you don't understand what you're putting your money into, you
should not invest.
And the other thing that killed all these investors, Bernie inspired so much trust that they didn't give them 10 percent or 20 percent of their
money they gave people you know, they gave him their entire life savings. So people, you know, the basic diversify, don't put all your eggs in one
basket.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's not about just one man. It's about an entire system and unfortunately, that systems not changed enough. Yes, Joe, great to chat
to you thank you so much for your time today. We'll see you again soon. I'm sure. Joe Berlinger, there the Director of Madoff, the Monster of Wall
Street, currently on Netflix. Thank you. All right, coming up on "First Move" immigration a top priority, how President Biden is planning to curb
the surge at the U.S. Southern border that's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:30:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move"! And U.S. stocks are up and running this Tuesday session in a softer open for the major averages as
expected with tech shares pulling back after two days in fact, of solid gains. I'd call that unchanged. So there's hope yet caution today there was
both BlackRock and Fidelity warned that investors are not taking the inflation risk as seriously as they should.
Morgan Stanley saying in the previous session that profit expectations is also too high. We begin getting fourth quarter earnings from the major U.S.
banks on Friday of this week. Also today the ongoing crypto winter getting even chilly Coinbase warning it will cut some 20 percent of its staff.
That's the second round of job cuts in seven months.
And the CEO warning of "More shoes to drop within the crypto industry itself" and more concerning these two from the World Bank just releasing a
downbeat look at the state of the global economy, the organization seeing global growth of just 1.7 percent this year. That's a substantial drop from
its previous targets.
It also sees particular challenges as you perhaps would expect for emerging markets. Rahel Solomon joins us now. Rahel, it was actually the line where
they said anything else goes wrong and it could tip the global economy into recession for what the second time, within a decade? Just talk us through
their key findings in this report.
RAHEL SOLOMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Perilously close to falling into recession Julia, that part got my attention too. So I want to compare that
1.7 percent global growth forecasts that you just mentioned to the previous forecasts we got from the World Bank about six months ago 3 percent. So
it's a pretty significant downgrade and a relatively short period of time.
And the factors Julia for the downgrade are things that you and I talk about a lot on this program, right? Increased inflation, higher interest
rates, aggressive central bankers, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and any adverse shock to any of those things could really sort of as we said power
perilously put some of these advanced economies into a recession.
The picture, however, even more dire for emerging markets with the president David Malpass, saying in a statement in this report, emerging and
developing countries are facing a multi-year period of growth, slow growth driven by heavy debt burdens and weak investment, as global capital is
absorbed by advanced economies faced with extremely high government debt levels, and rising interest rates.
And Julia on rising interest rates, we know that they still have higher to go as inflation remains quite elevated. And to that end, we get a key
inflation report on Thursday here in the U.S the U.S. CPI report, which will likely get quite a bit of attention from policymakers.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, and it's key to understand when advanced economies are raising interest rates, it sucks money out of emerging markets, because you
can get a decent return in the developed economies. Why would you take the risk of investing elsewhere? And that's this is critical to understand.
Very quickly we did though, as a counter to this here from Goldman Sachs thing they believe that the Eurozone will avoid recession despite earlier
concerns. What can you tell us on that and why?
SOLOMON: What isn't that interesting Julia? Any given day, it really depends on whether you're getting this report from the soft landing camp as
apparently Goldman Sachs now is with the Eurozone.
[09:35:00]
SOLOMON: So updating its forecast saying that it now actually expects the Euro area, potentially to avoid a recession in 2023, expecting growth of
0.6 percent compared to its previous forecasts of negative 0.1 percent. Some of the factories there being natural gas prices falling, China's
reopening. And so - and of course, we got that report this week that unemployment remains very low in the Eurozone.
So you add all of these factors, and you have Goldman now saying it also expects the Eurozone to be able to avoid a recession. And Julia, as you
know, it has also said the same about the U.S. It really just depends on which camp you're in.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it does. And what really says is, we're struggling to guess quite frankly, and there are so many things that could change. It's
tough to predict, as always, Rahel Solomon--
SOLOMON: Perilously close.
CHATTERLEY: --great job, exactly. Who would want to be predicting? OK. And we'll speak to the President of the World Bank, David Malpass on tomorrow's
show. OK, to Mexico City now and U.S. President Joe Biden holding a series of meetings with the Leaders of Mexico and Canada. They're discussing
trade, security and climate change.
But of course, top of the agenda has to be migration. The U.S. is expected to roll out new measures during today's summit to try and keep migrants
from crossing the southern border. And MJ Lee joins us now from Mexico City.
Smiles and diplomacy on the surface between the U.S. President Joe Biden and the Mexican President, but he was punchy in some of these comments,
abandon the attitude of abandonment and disdain for Latin America and the Caribbean. What measures can the U.S. provide here to solve some of those
concerns?
MJ LEE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I mean what we're essentially seeing unfold is the Biden Administration here in Mexico City, really
continue to find ways to try to get a handle on the migrant situation at its U.S. southern border.
And of course, this has been and will continue to be a huge topic of discussion, while the President is here for the North American Leader
Summit. And this afternoon, we will see him meeting with his counterparts from Mexico, and Canada. And one of the things that we expect is the
administration to roll out today a virtual platform.
This has been described by officials as basically a one stop shop for migrants and asylum seekers who can basically go and try to figure out are
there legal pathways for me to enter a country like the U.S., Mexico or Canada?
And they're also announcing the building of new physical resource centers, again, where these migrants can try to go and figure out what are the
options for me to legally get into some of these countries? You know, all of this administration officials say, is an effort to show that these
issues need to be handled in a coordinated basis, that it can't just be a solution that comes from the U.S.
But because this affects the entire region, that it's important for countries like the U.S., Canada and Mexico to all work together. I will say
though, at least back at home in the United States, there are some questions being raised about how effective some of these new measures can
be, particularly when you think about this virtual portal that is going to be launched in the next couple of months.
First of all, we don't really have the full details yet, because it's not been launched yet. But second, it just raises questions about how effective
this portal can be since you know, when you talk to experts, some of these asylum seekers, when they go straight to the U.S. southern border, they're
doing that without first properly applying for asylum because the situation back at home because the situation that they're trying to escape at home,
is so dire and because they're so desperate.
So there has been some concerns about potentially turning away some of these migrants at the U.S. border, because they haven't sort of taken the
proper steps when they're sort of doing that only because they feel like this is the only option that they have.
So we'll just have to see exactly what comes out of this meeting this afternoon of this summit this afternoon? But again, just goes to show how
complicated this problem is. And again, back at home this has been such a big, major political liability and issue for President Biden.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, and underscores the point that you made that coordination and cooperation is desperately required on this either way. MJ Lee, great
to have you with us thank you! OK coming up after the break - why we don't hear so much about the hole in the ozone layer anymore? Well, that's
perhaps because it's on its way to be fixed. The man behind a rare triumph of international cooperation is up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:40:00]
CHATTERLEY: Heavy rains, floods, landslides, the consequences of climate change clearly once again on display in California. But there's also hope
that efforts to reverse the damage we're inflicting on our planet can work. The ozone layer protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet rays from the
sun.
And back in the late 1980s we heard a lot about the worsening hole in it caused mainly by the release of chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons, or
CFCs, which were mainly used in things like fridges, aerosols and solvents.
Well, now the UN says action to save the ozone layer has been successful. And it is on track for a complete recovery over the coming decades. It's
all thanks to efforts made since the Montreal Protocol was agreed 35 years ago, and began the phase out of CFC use all around the world.
Joining us now Dr. Paul A Newman he's Chief Scientist for Air Sciences at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. He's also the Montreal Protocols' Co-
Chair of the Scientific Assessment Panel. Dr. Newman welcome and I hope I got those titles correct.
Firstly, this is an incredibly exciting report, not just for the knowledge and the science behind it, but I think for the hope that it provides that
we can take action to help reverse the damage to our planet. Just briefly talk us through the findings of this report.
DR. PAUL A NEWMAN, CO-CHAIR, SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT PANEL (SAP) TO THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL: Well, there's a few really interesting findings. First
of all, we now see both the emissions of ozone depleting substances, and the levels of ozone depleting substances continue to go down in our
atmosphere.
So back in the 80s, it was going up and up. Now it's topped off and it's been slowly coming down. The problem is that these chemicals,
chlorofluorocarbons have very, very long lifetimes. So it's going to come down very slowly over the coming decades.
So that's really positive news about the chemicals that actually lead to ozone depletion. But secondarily, when we look at the ozone layer, we now
see ozone in the upper altitudes where depletion is actually very prominent that we see things coming up now.
So ozone is increasing in the southern mid-latitudes in the tropics and in the northern mid-latitudes. That's a very, very useful result, interesting
results, positive results. So ozone is increasing. Chlorofluorocarbons are decreasing in our atmosphere. So things are working out as we theoretically
predicted many years ago, if you curtail the usage and emissions of these chlorofluorocarbons, the ozone layer would recover, and that's what we're
seeing now.
CHATTERLEY: And just to be clear, for our audience, what we're saying is by 2040 based on current levels the ozone layer will be back to the 1980s
levels. It's going to take a bit more time over the Arctic and over Antarctic in that case 2066 to see the same kind of recovery.
[09:45:00]
CHATTERLEY: But I think the point that you made there is vitally important for all to understand because when I saw the statistic that the use of CFCs
now was down 99 percent. My initial response is, but why is it going to take so long for the recovery? And what you're saying is these gases just
stick around so long that it just takes that much time?
DR. NEWMAN: Yes, chlorofluorocarbon 11, chlorofluorocarbon 12, we used to use CFC 12 in our current air conditioners, it was very commonly used. It
has a lifetime, over 100 years and so the recovery is going to take a long time and so that's why the ozone hole will recover in and around to back to
the 1980 level in about the year 2066 or so. It's a long, long process. But the positive thing is, of course, it didn't keep getting worse. It turned
around and it's on the downward trend now or upward trend for ozone.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, which is just what's so great about the science behind this the action that was taken? And I know you were a crucial part of that,
too and the benefits that we're now seeing. Ozone depleting gases are also pretty potent greenhouse gases too from my understanding, can we quantify
what it would have meant in terms of heating of the Earth's surface too if we hadn't taken the action that we'd had that we did?
DR. NEWMAN: Sure. Well, we always talk about chlorofluorocarbons as ozone depleting substances. But as you point out, they're also powerful
greenhouse gases. In fact, one pound of or one kilogram of CFC 12 is equivalent to thousands of pounds of CO2. So it's a very powerful
greenhouse gas.
So stopping the production and having it deep, the level is decreasing is slowing, we are avoiding warming of the Earth's surface from the CFCs. Now
there was a second class of gases called Hydro fluorocarbons, which were also powerful greenhouse gases.
Now Hydro fluorocarbons they don't deplete the ozone layer, but they were the replacements for the CFCs. So they were starting to be widely adopted
around the world as refrigerants and so forth. So in the Montreal Protocol, added an amendment to control hydro fluorocarbons.
So now we are starting to see the slowing of the growth of hydro fluorocarbons. And we expect they will peak sometime in the 2030s. And
they'll also come down, again, reducing a climate affect. We will avoid about point 0.3 to 0.5 degrees Celsius change.
So equivalent to Fahrenheit about 0.6 to one degree global warming by the year 2100, because we've controlled the hydro fluorocarbons in addition to
the CFCs so both of these are very positive outcomes.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, but its there - is that unintended consequences of replacing one thing with another and creating other issues. So I'm glad the
amendment was put in place to try and protect against that. There was a reason why I was asking this, though.
And I know for the first time in this report, and this report is done, every four years. You were looking at or scientists were looking at the
prospect of solar geo-engineering, I'm going to read this to make sure I get it right.
This is an attempt to reduce global warming through measures such as spraying aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight out of the
Earth's atmosphere. Sounds promising? How optimistic should we be? And to your earlier point, what about unintended consequences, perhaps of this? Is
there and are there prospects for using this in the future?
DR. NEWMAN: Right. So the idea, you know, we all stand out in the sun in the middle of the day, and you can feel the warmth of the sun as it we call
that shortwave heating. If you reflected a little of the sunlight back to space, you reduce this incoming radiation and the Earth's surface will cool
a bit.
So the idea is let's put up a gas or gases into the stratosphere, and they'll form little particles, little tiny particles that create a white
reflection back to space. So it's almost like putting up a partial metal umbrella or something like that.
It's reflecting radiation back to space, so that cools the Earth's surface. But when you do that, of course, you're putting this stuff into the
stratosphere so it first of all, depends what you put up there the kinds of articles you put up there and how much you do it? It turns out the
stratosphere is always flushing stuff back down into the lower atmosphere.
[09:50:00]
DR. NEWMAN: So you have to continue to do inject this stuff to maintain the surface cooling. So it depends on the particles it depends on the
conditions of the stratosphere, but it will warm up, it will heat the stratosphere, and it will change ozone levels.
And one of the things, if we wanted to reduce the temperature at the Earth's surface about one degree Fahrenheit globally, there's a certain
amount of these particles we have to get up there, that will reduce - it will make the Antarctic ozone hole a little bit worse.
It will reduce it by a measure of, of total ozone above your head, reduces it pretty significantly. And it delays the recovery of ozone over
Antarctica by quite a bit, actually. So it is a fairly negative impact of doing this.
On the other hand, if there's catastrophic climate change, and we have to do something, this might be what we'll have to do. So it's the obligation
of we scientists to figure out what's going to happen if we start adding particles to the stratosphere? And what are these negative effects that
might occur?
It turns out, in fact, if you put particles up in the mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere, you might get a little bit of an increase of ozone. So
you make the Polar Regions worse, and you might make the mid-latitudes a little bit better.
But our models right now are not, you know, they need a lot of work. We need more observations, just understanding what's happening in the
stratosphere with these particles that are naturally there is already a difficult scientific problem.
We had a massive eruption of the 100 Hunga-Tonga Volcano last January, and we're only now seeing its impact on stratosphere. And in fact that Hunga-
Tonga may make the Antarctic ozone hole much worse next year. So we need to understand what happens when you put things into the stratosphere? We need
to understand at a very detailed level to make sure there aren't these negative effects unforeseen negative effects.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. And to your point as well balancing what we have to tackle first the impact of climate change and the extreme weather events that
we're seeing around the world versus perhaps some potential deterioration or slowing in the recovery of the ozone layer.
I tell you what, Dr. Newman Paul, I'm very glad that you're working on this because then you give me confidence and hope that we'll be able to tackle
it, but it's no shortcut to and what we ended - as individuals have to do to try and protect the planet better.
DR. NEWMAN: Yes.
CHATTERLEY: --after--
DR. NEWMAN: There are hundreds of--
CHATTERLEY: We'll reconvene. I've run out of time. I'm terrible. I'm so naughty. I've taken too much time. So I have to say thank you. Dr. Newman
Paul we'll get you back.
DR. NEWMAN: Thank you very much. Thanks for having me.
CHATTERLEY: --at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Thank you, sir! We'll talk again soon. Stay with us more after this if I'm allowed.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:55:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back! Prince Harry's much anticipated memoir "Spare" is out today worldwide in London. People lined up at bookstores to be among
the first to get their hands on a copy in the "Tell-all" Harry makes explosive allegations against his family and describes what led to his
decision to step down from Royal duties.
Readers in Singapore and elsewhere are eager to hear more about the Royal Family's bitter feud. Currently the memoir is ranked as a best seller on
Amazon in several countries. I think that's successful launch.
And finally, selling money is up for grabs tonight in the U.S. at Mega Millions Draw. The lottery jackpot stands at $1.1 billion. You heard me;
meaning that after tax the winner walks away with more than $568 million. So if you don't see me on the TV tomorrow, you'll know what happened? Not
really. I'll be here. That's it for the show. "Connect the World" with Becky Anderson is up next and I will see you tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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