Return to Transcripts main page

First Move with Julia Chatterley

Report: Wagner Boss Prigozhin Spotted in St. Petersburg; U.S. Economic Data comes in Strong Thursday; Runway CEO: We have Safety Mechanisms in Place; Study: Vital System of Ocean Currents could Collapse from 2025 Due to Carbon Emission; United Nations: July is the Hottest Month on Record; Mattel to go All-In on Barbie for Christmas. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired July 27, 2023 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN HOST, FIRST MOVE: A warm welcome to "First Move" fantastic to have you with us on a thermal Thursday in New York City where

temperatures are approaching 37 degrees Celsius, the thermometer is soaring the news flow though never boring.

In Russia Wagner Head Yevgeny Prigozhin on the move again, back in Russia specifically St. Petersburg, where a Summit for leaders of African nations

is being held, no photo opportunity with President Putin expected of course although today's events to further complicate Prigozhin's perplexing let's

call it that status in Russia, we'll be discussing.

In the meantime nothing perplexing about today's central bank action, the European Central Bank, just announcing an expected quarter point rate hike

that's the ninth rise in a row and it takes borrowing costs of three and three quarters of a percent little guidance though from Christine Lagarde

and Company on what next?

It says all options are open and that's pretty reminiscent of the Fed think too after they raised rates to 22 year highs, Fed Chair Jerome Powell

saying a September hike remains on the table although many believe the Fed is now finished.

Jay Powell also noting the resilience of the U.S. economy and those staffers no longer expects a recession and I have to say the latest growth

data from the United States absolutely screams that. Fresh data this Thursday morning showing the U.S. economy growing at a much better than

expected annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter and we've had a whole slew of strong data today to support that as well.

The stock market reaction, as you might expect very positive U.S. futures rallying after the DOW's 13th Street winning session. The NASDAQ today's

outperform a bullish tone, too, as you can see in Europe and across Asia as well strong earnings also contributing to the market mood with a whole

array of firms raising their forward guidance.

That includes Meta the parent company of Facebook, enjoying a rebound in digital ad sales just like Alphabet's Google, in fact, as you can see there

Meta shares set to rally almost 10 percent in early trade and make that a more than 140 percent rally so far this year.

All right, much more on the Fed and markets later on in the show, but first to Prigozhin in St. Petersburg, according to a telegram channel linked to

the Wagner Mercenary Group Yevgeny Prigozhin is back in Russia. This is the first time the Wagner boss has been seen inside Russia since leading last

month's armed rebellion.

The last time he was seen in public, in fact, was on July 19th, when he appeared in a video filmed in Belarus. Nic Robertson joins us now. Nic, I

think many thought it was remarkable that he remained at large after that mutiny attempt. But now back in Russia, it seems no less. What do you make

of this?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDIOTR: Yes, I think it tells us a couple of things. I mean, it tells us the value that Prigozhin still

has to the Kremlin remembering that his Mercenary Group the Wagner Mercenary Group, was instrumental for the Kremlin and an off book sort of

way to strike up beneficial relations with various different clients states in Africa, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Mali, to name but to

interest in Libya, Sudan as well obviously, Ukraine and Syria too.

But in Africa Prigozhin was able to cut deals with leaders whereby his security service, the Wagner mercenaries, would prop up leaders there in

exchange for minerals, gold, diamonds, those sorts of things.

So it's kind of not a surprise that Prigozhin should appear on the periphery of this huge conference that President Putin is hosting in some

St. Petersburg with African Leaders and almost 50 different African nations represented there.

No surprise in as much as that Wagner and Putin Wagner Mercenaries and Putin both have interests in some of those nations commercial interest in

some of those nations that are showing up there. But how does Prigozhin pull this off with Putin when just a month ago, Putin was accusing him of

mutiny, that there will be severe punishments.

It seems strange and we know that the CIA Director Bill Burns and said, look, Prigozhin and we have video of him now from last week in Belarus. He

was saying that Prigozhin moves between Russia and Belarus.

[09:05:00]

So what are the real constraints and punishments that Putin has put on Prigozhin? Not clear the British MOD say that he is short of cash that is

selling Russian and international assets so that he can pay off his mercenary fighters. But he has not been taken out with poison or a bullet.

And I think that's what most people find surprising, such a huge challenge to Putin's authority. And he is still there in the public limelight.

CHATTERLEY: At least for now. Nic Robertson, thank you so much for that. Also, in St. Petersburg, President Putin assuring leaders of African

nations that Russia's suspension of the Black Sea Grain Deal won't impact their food supplies. He said Moscow can replace Ukrainian grain exports,

and he's promising to supply six African countries for free.

David McKenzie joins us with more. David, I believe that includes 25 to 50,000 tons of grain for nations like Mali, Somalia, Zimbabwe, welcome

supply, surely, but how will that be received some could argue its food being weaponized and leveraged for influence?

DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well yes, he certainly could argue that. And that's what a lot of critics of Russia have

said that the invasion and the subsequent bombing of the Port of Odessa blockading the grain coming out of Ukraine are weaponizing food.

And again, maybe this as well but what is really worth remembering of its whom Vladimir Putin's audience is in this case, its several African leaders

and many senior officials from across the continent. He's trying to make a play to say that the collapse of the grain deal was because it was unfair,

and in his words, only benefiting European companies. Let's take a listen to the Russian Leader.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT: We sent almost 10 million tones to Africa, obviously, in the conditions of the illegitimate sanctions, which

make it much more difficult for Russia to send food to Africa. We talk about logistics, banking and transfers; we have a paradox of picture here.

On one hand, Western countries are limiting the supply of our grain and fertilizers to Africa and on the other hand, in a totally hypocritical

manner they blame us for all the problems.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCKENZIE: So it might get some kind of receptive audience from some of the leaders there. And the fact is that in his speech, he talked about the

Russian relationship with Africa, writ large health, trade, education, person to person connections and information.

All was in that speech from Putin saying that he can be a partner to African nations. And while there have been many people pointing out that

only about 17, heads of state went to the Africa Summit in the Russia Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, substantially down from 2019.

The fact that anyone showed up is significant for the President since he has been isolated from much of the rest of the world. He did say that

Russia's investment across the African Continent, the trade has gone up to 18 billion, Julia.

Well, if you compare that to U.S. trade, it's a small amount. If you compare that, again to Chinese trade it's a very small amount. So Russia

has a long way to go in terms of building up trade relations in the African Continent.

But given his isolation from Europe and the U.S. it is a potentially very important set of countries for Putin to try and win. And they will be I

think, when it comes to issues of "Multipolar World" be receptive to the audience, receptive to the message, I should say, Vladimir Putin, in some

cases, Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. And to your point is perhaps less about who wasn't there and more about who was? David, good to have you. Thank you, David McKenzie

there. Now on the sidelines of that summit the events in -- will certainly have been discussed too, Russia's Foreign Ministry joining U.S. Secretary

of State Antony Blinken in condemning an apparent military coup.

A group of military officers announced Wednesday night that President Mohamed Bazoum has been ousted his election two years ago was a historic

first for the African nation. And this concern his removal could be a major drag on the fight against Islamic insurgency in the region.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATES: Very closely monitoring the situation and developments in Niger. I spoke with President Mohamed Bazoum

earlier this morning, and made clear that the United States resolutely supports him as the democratically elected President of Niger. We call for

his immediate release. We condemn any effort to seize power by force.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHATTERLEY: And Larry Madowo joins us now from Nairobi. Larry, the U.S. Secretary of State there saying he spoke to President Bazoum doing know his

whereabouts and what situation he's in at this moment and I guess the other question will be what now?

[09:10:00]

LARRY MADOWO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: OK, what now needs a lot more of an explanation? So I'll start with the first about his whereabouts. It's not

clear where President Mohamed Bazoum is.

The last we heard is that on Wednesday, he was being held by the presidential guard in the presidential palace. That was Wednesday during

the day. In the evening, we saw these men in military fatigues show up on national television and claimed that they had ousted him and taken over

suspended the Constitution, shut down the borders, and all public institutions were closed so it's never good central democracy when this

happens, but especially when they say stuff like this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AMDOU ADRAMANE, NIGER ARMY SOPKESPERSON: Brought together by National Council for the safeguarding of the country, we haven't decided to put an

end to the regime that, you know, this follows the continuing deterioration of good security situation, and poor economic and social governance.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MADOWO: So that is where Niger is right now, this was one of the more stable countries in a very unstable neighborhood. It's surrounded by Mali,

and Burkina Faso where the Islamist insurgency is at its peak, where groups affiliated to ISIS and Al Qaeda have been active and have led to thousands

of deaths, and a lot of suffering for so many citizens of the Sahel.

So but what happens next? It's unclear because for one, when will President Bazoum show up in public? Will they allow him to go to another country on

exile? Or will they put him on trial for any perceived crimes? It's hard to tell.

But the bigger problem here is that this risks contagion in the region, the reason why the U.S. and France a lot of the other international community

put a lot of weight in Niger is because in 2021, for instance, it became -- it got for the first time a peaceful handover of power.

The first time it had had that since 1960, when he got independence from France. Four coups since then, if this is successful, it will be the fifth

coup, but think about the neighborhood, Mali and Burkina Faso have each had at least four coups just in the last four years.

So it's a really worrying situation there. That is why you see the U.S. the European Union, the UN and the African Union, all calling for the release

of President Bazoum and also a return to that democratic path, because there's risks backsliding and wiping out all the gains that the country has

made, Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Larry, thank you for that. Now turning to the U.S. economy, Powell not yet throwing in the towel, the Fed Chair saying at his press

conference Wednesday, that fate of the benchmark rate could go either way at the next FOMC get together.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEROME POWELL, CHAIR OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE OF THE UNITED STATES: I would say it is certainly possible that we would raise funds again at the

September meeting if the data warranted. And I would also say it's possible that we would choose to hold steady at that meeting. We're going to be

making careful assessments as I said, meeting my meeting.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHATTERLEY: I have a lot depends on what the data says between now and September 20th, when the next Fed decision is due. For now, though, the

U.S. data looking incredibly strong, Christine Romans joins us now. Your crystal ball was working. We've got exactly what we expected on this one.

The rate hikes now behind us. So is the risk of recession no longer predicting a recession at all?

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Yes. I mean, he might get his soft landing. He might get that soft landing, after all, and we can

see that exports were strong in this GDP report, we can see the consumer holding in there, we know the consumer, Julia is drawing down their

pandemic savings.

But they still have bank accounts, according to JP Morgan, that are more flushed today than they were in 2019. So they have more room to go and a

strong job market. You know, when you have the dependability of the paycheck that's incredibly helpful in terms of consumer spending.

So really a number I think, that shows the U.S. economy defying all predictions and not cooling off, but actually picking up speed in the

second quarter. Now, this is a rearview mirror, of course. But we have seen again and again, where a year ago, it was a question of when not if there

will be recession. It really is an -- if now, if for sure, because the economy has been holding in there so well.

You look at jobless claims also showing layoffs are still historically low, durable goods orders were strong. I mean, just one thing after the other

for the Fed to consider there are eight weeks until that next Fed meeting, but at least this first batch of data that Jay Powell and the team get to

go over are suggesting the U.S. economy hanging in there well.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, they've got two months now of data to pour over to access so that you understand why he kept the prospect of a further rate hike

given the sort of pickup that we're describing even now in the U.S. economy on the table.

But that didn't stop the cutters chatting those calling for cuts and actually really liked his response to this. He's like, look, we'll be

comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates you posted. Yes?

ROMANS: He does. He does a very good job with that messaging, by the way, because there's just so much Oh My Gosh! There's just so much uncertainty

and look, things can change. We were already seeing gas price prices rise for a couple of different reasons.

[09:15:00]

You've got commodities rising in general, and gasoline prices and oil prices rising with them. But also, you know, there's extreme heat around

the world means you're not refining as much of the stuff.

You can't we have refineries going full bore when it's 115 when the heat index, right degrees Fahrenheit with the heat index. So there are some

things that are in the pipeline, of course, that could cause the inflation worries to continue.

I'm also when you're talking about some of the strength in the economy here and the strength in the labor market. I mean, that means that the Fed is

still on alert, you know, maybe they have -- they cannot declare victory over inflation just yet with some of these other things percolating.

CHATTERLEY: No, I agree with you completely as always, but he has perfected the art of saying something and saying nothing and they say that with, you

know, as a compliment.

ROMANS: Aberration.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, exactly. I thinking of another word and I thought not to say. Christine Romans thank you so much.

ROMANS: All right.

CHATTERLEY: Straight ahead, moviemaking AI styles, how to build a film with just a few words. We'll show you how. Plus our climate calamity, finds out

why July is set to be the hottest month on record on earth.

(COMEMRCIAL BREAK)

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". Another day and another way that AI is being used to disrupt an industry and this time, its digital editing

and movie making, now what if you could generate a short form movie just by entering a few words of text into a box?

This is Runway, a browser driven video production site. You begin by using a sentence to describe what you want to see the example here and you're

going to see it a palm tree on a tropical island. Then you can add a few more parameters. Click generates, and it appears like magic.

There you go. As this advert shows, while the resolution is perhaps not quite blockbuster ready, the inference is pretty clear as to the future of

amateur filmmaking with dramatic cost savings potentially too.

And investors clearly see the potential also and they include Madrona Venture Group, Compound, Nvidia and Google. And Cristobal Valenzuela is the

CEO of Runway AI and he joins us now. Chris, fantastic to have you on the show! We gave our viewers a little glimpse there with the palm tree on the

desert island but just in your own words, what are you providing to users?

[09:20:00]

CRISTOBAL VALENZUELA, CEO OF RUNWAY: For sure, Runway is a technology company and a research company that's creating a new kind of journey AI

algorithms that allowed you to turn nothing more than words that you just saw into realistic videos.

And so really think about it as a creative tool. And as an expressive tool that allows you to translate your thoughts and your ideas into really

magical videos. And so it's a very convenient and easy way of creating videos of completely different from anything you might use in the past.

CHATTERLEY: One of the videos that I saw on and we don't have it, but it caught my attention initially with I think the words were a cow at a

birthday party, and it sort of used a bit of poetic license, there was a dog there, those balloons, there was candles. So you're not just

necessarily getting what you asked for. It elaborates too.

VALENZUELA: You're not constrained to. You're constrained to your imagination, that's the best way to think about it. And so you can combine

things in all sorts of real, surreal, real ways you want and that's kind of the beauty of it, to be honest, you're not, there's no limitations to what

you can do with it.

And sometimes you get results are surprising and different. But the key aspect of it is that that's actually how creativity and arts work, you want

to iterate and you want to try new things, you want to see you can search for pricing.

A lot of the work that we're doing, though, in the research side, is to make these algorithms as controllable as possible. So you want the cow to

be in a particular position or location, you should be able scheduled to do it.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, and some people that are watching this might recognize what we're seeing now on the screen from a pretty famous movie. So your

technology is already being used, industries already using your technology. Just explain that.

VALENZUELA: Yes, that's very important to notice. And to be aware of that AI is already being used in major productions across the media landscape.

We have around 30 Different AI tools these days at Runway. And all of those tools have been used in in different manners in ways including for

blockbuster movies.

And that's the interesting aspect that these tools are very useful and help producers and editors and filmmakers really speed up their times of

creating visual production across the spectrum. And so really not right now we're trying to make sure that more people can get their hands into this

technology. So they can also make amazing award winning movies.

CHATTERLEY: You're an artist, that's your background. So you understand the science of this, you also understand the importance of creativity and the

human element that's involved here. Can you see the concern from those, like in Hollywood today that are striking over concerns about AI, that

there's a fear that in some way human jobs will be replaced by this technology? When you're asked that, how do you respond?

VALENZUELA: I think I do come from an arts background. We started Runway around five years ago after going to art school. And so we deeply empathize

with those concerns. And like with those questions. At the same time, I think it's really important that we understand that not everything is black

and white.

Not everything is zeros or ones. There's grandiose and there's nuance in all of those conversations. And these tools are not tools for replacement.

These are tools for augmentation, and for enhancement off creating workflows.

And so we went matter series that how do you get these tools to be more useful and more usable to more people? I think part of it is really

demonstrating how expressive they are and how powerful they are to make films like the one we're just seeing right now?

We hosted, for example, a film festival in New York, showcasing some of the best films, and it's all about highlighting the people behind the movies.

The technologies are just a tool. And what we do with the tool is really what matters what matters the most.

CHATTERLEY: So if I went wild and said, I'm just pulling something out of the air now. I want to create a video. If I said to it, President Biden and

the Pope waltzing or no even better dancing Gangnam Style, could it do that?

VALENZUELA: It technically could, right now since the -- is so early, we have a lot of safety mechanisms put in place to make sure the filters and

the ways people can create within the -- is as safe as possible. And so over time, as you get more used to it, more filters will be added and more

kind of like wasting dragging, -- to create safe content will be put in place.

For now we prevent some things that we might go against our terms of service or might be too harmful from being generated. So we're always kind

of like in the loop to make sure that -- again, as the tool becomes really accessible and safe to use.

CHATTERLEY: OK, are they labeled too, because I think what we're the conversation that we're having here is fake content, because I think that's

the fear and I'm sure a lot of the tech giants are looking at this technology too.

[09:25:00]

And I know many of them are investing in you but this sort of reticence to be part of an avalanche of fake material and fake videos in particular. So

are you saying that actually, you're prepared to put all the restrictions in place? And I hope labeled too to ensure that users of this aren't

creating what could be dangerous misinformation? Because I think that's one of the biggest risks.

VALENZUELA: Yes, I think that's a fair question to be asking ourselves, although I think there are two aspects of it. The first one is fake content

only represents a small percentage of the outcomes of these models. Again, AI is more than just deep fakes. AI is more than just language models.

There are lots of other opportunities of things that you can do here. At the same time, these questions have been around for decades, when computers

were around where things like Photoshop were first invented, we were asking ourselves the same question like manipulating digital images has been

around for some time. And the idea that fake comfortable -- , of course, been around. I think one thing that is important --

CHATTERLEY: But now we're getting really good, the difference today. Forgive me for interrupting, because I try not to do that. But the

difference today is that they're getting really good. And they're getting difficult to distinguish sort of fakes of old you sort of saw weird mouths

and weird movements and things. And I'm not saying it's perfect, but you could kind of tell this stuff is getting tough to tell.

VALENZUELA: I think it's I mean, when you go to the movies these days, and watch a science fiction movie, an action movie, a superhero movie, it also

those or things are fake, and we understand how those are created, when you open a magazine and read through like a fashion magazine, you understand

that those pictures might be manipulated, and actually not real.

I think this is no, it's very similar in the sense that part of what we need to do is first of all, given awareness that this technology is

possible that you can generate really convincing videos and make sure that those videos have real positive outcomes. Because you can do for sure, like

with any other tool, you can do bad things.

And you can get in trouble with that. But that's the technology overall has a very positive outcome. And really were at the beginnings, really early

stages of this new piece of technology, and highlighting the positive aspects of technology is as important and perhaps more important than

focusing only on their minority that can, that has like a bit of a side effect.

And we're weighing paying a lot of attention to those as well, by putting watermarks, and having strict and safety policy filters in place.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. And I fundamentally agree with you on that it's not technology, that's the problem. It's the use of it, and at times the lack

of regulation of it as well. That's the problem. OK, you've raised lots of money I mentioned, Google Nvidia says something in what you're creating and

what you're going to do.

Tell me why? Why they think that there's a reason to invest in you beyond doing this technology themselves. What's unique about you, and how are you

going to use their money?

VALENZUELA: Sure, I mean, you know, I've been working on Runway almost for five years, we started the company, when the field was relatively new. And

we put in a lot of effort and a lot of research a lot of time making sure that we can build models that the ones we're discussing right now that can

join videos with nothing more than words are nothing more than images.

At the same time building a model show me a percentage of what needs to be done to create and make this technology really powerful and empower for

artists. And so since we're coming from a background of arts combined with technology, we want to make sure.

We can get that to know you across to the most amounts of people possible by working with companies like the best companies in the world like Google,

like Nvidia, like Salesforce. And so that's, it's a great set of partners that we have, assemble and have a delight to work with.

And there's a long way to go still, again, we're very early on. So a lot of the things that have to be built are yet not built. And we're in the drain

to make sure that this is continuing to develop. And so we're excited to work with them to train new models. That's one of the things we're doing

right now.

These models do take time do take resources are expensive to train. And so making sure we have the infrastructure in place is really, really

important.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, you've got a few years head start, but one would argue some of these guys are investors and competitors one day too. But yes, I

can see you see that too. Chris, great to chat to you, we'll speak soon. The CEO of Runway I appreciate your time, sir. Thank you.

OK, coming up on "First Move", a looming ocean current crisis or potential climate disaster that could happen much sooner than we expect. That's next,

I'll explain.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:30:00]

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move", and to New York where a warning of excessive heat is in place today. Temperatures are expected to reach 96

degrees Fahrenheit or 36, 37 degrees Celsius. In fact, this month is said to be the hottest month in around 120,000 years.

That's according to the atmosphere monitoring service Copernicus. It says what we're seeing is human caused climate change. Now speaking of climate

change, do you remember the cataclysmic scenes from this movie?

So that was a clip from the movie The Day After Tomorrow. Now there was a lot wrong, admittedly with the science and all sorts in this movie, not to

mention a whole bunch of random wolves that appeared at one point too. But the real star of the film and the catalyst for the disaster is the Atlantic

Meridional Overturning Current.

Better known and more easily said as AMOC. Now think of this as a giant conveyor belt of water that keeps global weather imbalanced by moving warm

water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. Now if that system breaks down or weakens, then the impact could be pretty devastating.

Such as, as you saw there a possible ice age in Europe and North America. Now, just this week, we had a warning from top climate scientists

suggesting that this current could collapse much sooner than we think.

[09:35:00]

And I'm pleased to say the authors of that study Professor Suzanne and Peter did loosen from the University of Copenhagen. Joining us now,

professors, welcome to the show. Thank you so much for your time, you certainly caught people's attention, I think with this report. Suzanne, I

want to begin with you, did we give the explanation of this conveyor belt properly and its importance to global weather patterns?

SUSANNE DITLEVSEN, PROFESSOR AT UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN Well, yes or no, because you were promising an ice age and I don't think that is what we're

going to have if a conveyor belt.

CHATTERLEY: I --

S. DITLEVSEN: Or this overturning, circulation will break down.

CHATTERLEY: OK, so --

S. DITLEVSEN: The consequences will probably be different. So these consequences you might know from the ice ages, but now we are in another

time in another climate, and that is probably not what we're going to expect.

CHATTERLEY: OK. We'll talk about the consequences in a moment. But Peter, I want to talk to you about the study, and how you looked at what we've seen

in the past and have more been warnings about the risks of change or collapse of this conveyor belt in the past, but you went back over 150

years of data to look at sea temperature patterns. Can you just explain what's different about your study?

PETER DITLEVSEN, PROFESSOR AT UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN: Yes, so what the IPCC report mentions as the risk is that what Marx also tells us is that

there is a tipping point out there in the future, if we add too much freshwater in into the Northern Atlantic, because the sinking that drives

the current here, is given by seeking of heavy water.

And the heaviness comes from the salt in the Atlantic world, that's also why you don't see the same kind of circulation in the Pacific. And that

salt water here can be fresh. And if there's too much melt off from the ice sheet, too much one off from rivers and precipitation into the ocean and

export of sea ice and fresh water from the Arctic Ocean there.

If it shuts off, that's a point of no return that we've known for a long time, are the climate models that basis for the IPCC assessment that it's

very unlikely to happen within the 21st century. A little bit too conservative, it turned out. But we know that the most conservative so if

we instead had data that would support what we see in the past 20 years where A mark has actually been measured directly.

But only for 20 years, we've seen a weakening, but that weakening could be natural variability we do not know. So the only way we can see the

difference between this and natural variability is if we can extend the data going further back.

And this is something that was an aquifers at the Germany at the Potsdam Institute and other places have been very thoroughly about using a sign of

the A mark from ship measurements of surface temperatures that goes all the way back to the 19th century.

CHATTERLEY: Right.

P. DITLEVSEN: That's what we base the analysis on.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. So and to your point, though, if the water there cools, then it suggests that these currents are weakening, and then we're in this

sort of danger zone that you've discussed. And you're not hedging this, you've said that with high confidence that a shutdown or collapse could

happen as early as 2025.

No later than 2095, though you expect it to be, you know, somewhere in that, Suzanne, to your earlier point about me getting the consequences

potentially wrong? What would be the consequences if this did collapse?

S. DITLEVSEN: Yes, first, I want to make something more precise. So we have based our analysis on these historic data. And of course, these historic

data are approximate data of what we want to analyze. And when we give a confidence interval, so we say from 2025 to 2095, it is given that this

data is actually a good relevancy of -- .

CHATTERLEY: Yes.

S. DITLEVSEN: So that's just to say that they want you to be careful. And also to say that even though we start, what we call a confidence interval

in 2025, it's highly unlikely that it happens that earlier, we will expect it to happen later. Now, the consequences are difficult to assess, because

we have not actually seen such a situation before.

So this, A mark has a tipping point what Peter also explained and that means it has two states, an on state and an off state. And this on state is

what we have today. And we've had that for the last 12,000 years. So that means we don't really know anything about the off state except from

something we can infer from the ice ages.

[09:40:00]

But the ice ages was a very different climate so how that will be today. And we also have global warming on top. So it's difficult to say. But it's,

I think it's quite safe to say that we will have more wild weather. We will have more heat that cannot escape around the tropic areas.

And we will have more storms we will have different precipitation patterns. So the climate as we know it, or the weather, you could say will change

drastically.

CHATTERLEY: I think, for me, when I was looking at the analysis is that you talk about this tipping point that you've both discussed. And Suzanne, you

can weigh in on this first, if you don't mind. What's missing for me is why? Why does it occur? What's the catalyst that makes this happen?

I mean, some of those other studies have cited perhaps melting ice from the Arctic. What is the catalyst? And does that necessarily matter? Is the

point just we have to do more about human climate change?

P. DITLEVSEN: Well, we believe it is the melting that is caused by global warming. So it's kind of a difficult story saying that Europe will be

colder, but the world will be warmer. But that is actually what is in the pipeline, and the cost will probably be this increase in freshwater is just

not monitored very precisely.

So what we did was to actually say as little as possible of the course just saying that, well, we know that things are changing. And if it changes as a

business as usual, in the future, this is the consequence. So in some sense, this is the worst case scenario from the IPCC's projections, where

we say this is going to happen very fast. And it came to us as a surprise to me that was this early.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. The IPCC, of course, we were saying after 2100. So I think for people listening to that they're like, well, not in my lifetime. So I'm

less worried. Suzanne, finally, what colleagues would have people in the industry said to you about the warning, and the study that you've done

here? Is has there been some skepticism or generally people just alarmed and recognizing that it's another?

S. DITLEVSEN: Yes, they have. You mean, among scientists? Are you mean among normal people?

CHATTERLEY: Yes, either.

S. DITLEVSEN: So they're also friends that are questioning our study. And they should, I mean, that is the work of a scientist. And I was also we

were both very surprised for having this very early result. And we do hope we are wrong. We should also say that our estimate is built on what we call

business as usual.

And that means that we continue with the greenhouse gas emissions as we have done until now. And of course, that is, I hope, unrealistic, I hope

that we will be decreasing the emissions. And then these estimates, of course, will change, of course, they will change.

So, since we have not put any assumptions on our analysis, it is built upon that we continue the way we did. So we hope we will be able to change it if

we start doing serious measures for reducing or stopping.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, preferably, to my point about commentators on your report, Antonio Guterres, the United Nations Secretary General actually I believe

he's just been speaking about your report. We're just going to listen to what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTONIO GUTERRES, UNITED NATIONS SECRETARY-GENERAL: According to the data released today, July has already seen the hottest three week period over

ever recorded. The city office there is on record and the highest ever ocean temperatures for this time of year.

The consequences are clear, and they are tragic. Children swept away by monsoon rains, families running from the flames, workers collapsing in

scorching heat. For vast parts of North America, Asia, Africa and Europe, it's a Cruel Summer, for the entire planet, it is a disaster.

And for scientists, it is unequivocal, humans are to blame. All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings. The only

surprise is the speed of the change.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHATTERLEY: Yes, so this was the report that came out today to suggest that July is the hottest month on record for 120,000 years.

[09:45:00]

Suzanne just to wrap this up, I think he's illustrating the challenges that we're facing and pointing to the science that's telling us it's happening

fast sooner than we think.

S. DITLEVSEN: Yes, and the exactly that was our surprise.

CHATTERLEY: Yes.

S. DITLEVSEN: Because of course, we have known this we know that there is global warming. We know that we have to do something. But it is the speed

and it was also for us to see the speed of which we can expect this to happen. So it makes me cry to hear him say this. We have to do something

faster than we may be thought.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. It is heartbreaking. Guys, thank you so much for your work, vitally important to understand and vitally important for us to talk

about. We'll speak soon, no doubt. Thank you for your efforts.

S. DITLEVSEN: Thank you.

CHATTERLEY: OK, we're going to take a break. Still to come on "First Move", Volkswagen is trying to give itself a boost in the world's biggest car

market details of any partnership in China after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back Volkswagen taking big steps to boost some sluggish sales in China. The company investing $700 million in Chinese EV maker

Xpeng and is agreed to a strategic partnership to develop two new models for the Chinese market that will be rolled out in 2026.

Anna Stewart joins us on this fierce competition. I think first and foremost for Volkswagen in China. But as you and I have discussed on many

occasions, it's tough to do business as a foreign company in China.

ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: Yes, both companies have touted this as a huge vote of confidence in the Chinese market. And it certainly is. But I think

it also speaks to that. The fact is it's getting harder and harder for international brands to compete in the Chinese market without having some

sort of partnership.

And Volkswagen for whom China is its biggest market has been struggling this year with sales. The first quarter was pretty abysmal, and it hasn't

really recovered it since then. And there are also the geopolitical tensions to take into account between China and Germany.

Germany actually recently published at two weeks ago, its strategy on China, very lengthy document, it actually warns companies who are reliant

on the Chinese market that they must take into account the risk of geopolitical tensions and the potential for financial fallout.

[09:50:00]

And that companies must be braced to -- that on their own not with the help of the state coffers, so it's an interesting tactic I think it makes sense

to go for a partnership at this point, Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. And our eagle eyed viewers will have noticed me furiously typing on my phone now while you're speaking because I believe we have a

picture of you, because you've done some investigative work. Oh, look, there we go. Wait. Now is that a flying car?

STEWART: That is, Julia, I have that in so many flying cars. The world kind of lost track of how many there is this one.

CHATTERLEY: You're right, we're not buyers.

STEWART: It didn't take off while I was in it. But we actually saw this one take off in Dubai at GITEX last year. And that's what makes X tanks so

interesting. It really is a leader when it comes to autonomous driving technology and software. That is what Volkswagen is buying into.

It's also, Julia, a company that is very aggressive, particularly with Tesla. It has the G6 I think we've got some video of it. This is an

electric SUV in China from Xpeng. It is a direct competitor to the Tesla Model Y. It's got some autonomous driving capabilities.

And what is so interesting is Tesla has ever engaged in something of a price war, but in this situation, it actually lost, Xpeng taking a big hit

or margins. That car is around 20 percent cheaper than the Tesla Model Y.

CHATTERLEY: Wow! So you get the engineering prowess of Volkswagen with some of the smart technologies of Xpeng.

STEWART: And it might fly.

CHATTERLEY: We're not promising, we were promising nothing. Anna Stewart, thank you, great to have you, back after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move", now Mattel must be feeling pretty in pink as the Barbie movie takes over at the box office and now the firm

plans to ride the pink wave all the way to the holiday season. Strong demand for Barbie merchandise could give the toy giant a sales boost later

this year after a sluggish second quarter.

Nathaniel Meyersohn joins us now on this. They would certainly hope for it. I think after the second quarter they could have doing done with it being

launched in the fall though. How is the question? Are they going to keep the momentum going?

NATHANIEL MEYERSOHN, CNN BUSINESS REPORTER: So Julia, we're all talking about the Barbie movie, theaters are packed, but it's not translating into

Barbie toy sales right now. Mattel sales dropped 12 percent last quarter and that included a 6 percent drop of Barbie sales.

The reason that we're seeing this is because consumers have pulled back on a lot of their discretionary spending. They're shifting from buying

physical goods like toys into travel, entertainment and leisure. And so that hurt Mattel last quarter.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. The question is will we see a pickup as a result of the movie? Nathaniel, what were they saying?

[09:55:00]

And I'm sure, he was asked on the earnings call about the possibility of a sequel.

MEYERSOHN: So Julia, the good news for Mattel is that the Barbie sales will pick up later this year. Expect to see a lot of Barbie merchandise around

the holidays. It's going to be a Hot Christmas toy for a lot of kids. And Mattel is not just a toy company anymore.

It's really focusing on licensing some of its franchises like Hot Wheels, and even Barney into movies. Those are two movie projects that are being

worked on right now. And there could potentially be a Barbie sequel, which would be more good news for Mattel.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, he's a regular on our show. And he often talks about leveraging the power of the brands and this one certainly that on steroids.

We shall see Nathaniel, good to have you on. Thank you so much for that.

And that's it for the show. If you missed any of our interviews today, there'll be on my Twitter and Instagram pages you can search for

@jchatterleycnn. "Connect the World" is up next. I'll see you tomorrow.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:00:00]

END