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First Move with Julia Chatterley
Harris and Trump Making Their Last Push for Support; No Clear Leader in Race; Iowa Poll Show Harris Ahead of Trump; FBI Setting up Command Post; Barriers Installed Around the White House, Capitol and Vice President's Residents; Wall Street Predicts Who May Win the Presidential Race; Flooding Crisis Worsens in Spain; More Than 200 Dead in Spain Flooding; Harris and Trump Both in Pennsylvania; Musk's Election Claim on X Viewed 2 Billion Times; Global Perspective on U.S. Election. Aired 6-7p ET
Aired November 04, 2024 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[18:00:00]
JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Please vote. Let's end this hour where we started. Nice. The election jam. You know you love it. Tomorrow's the big
night. Election Night in America. No one covers an election like CNN. Our special coverage will start tomorrow at 4:00 eastern. I'll be on my feet
for I don't even know how long. The news continues on CNN with Wolf Blitzer in The Situation Room. I'll see you tomorrow at 4:00.
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN ANCHOR, FIRST MOVE: It's 7:00 a.m. in Beijing, 8:00 a.m. in Seoul, and 6:00 p.m. here in New York. I'm Julia Chatterley. And
wherever you are in the world, this is your "First Move."
And a warm welcome to "First Move" as always. And here's today's need to know. Election Eve. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump making their last push
for support ahead of Tuesday's presidential vote. Defending D.C. Barriers have been installed around the White House, Capitol, and the vice
president's residence. Presidential predictor, what Wall Street is telling us about who may win. And, the world awaits. We'll take you around the
globe to ask which candidate other nations may prefer and why. All that and plenty more coming up.
But first, the last day of campaigning here well underway in the United States as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump make their final appeal to voters.
Here's a flavor.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAMALA HARRIS, U.S. VICE PRESIDENT AND U.S. PRESIDENTIAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE: Let's be intentional about building community, about building
coalitions, about reminding people we all have so much more in common than what separates us.
DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're just one day away. Oh, we've been waiting for this. I've been four
years for this. And so, have you. And so, have you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: CNN's latest Poll of Polls showing Harris narrowly ahead of Trump, 49 to 47 percent. That slight edge means there's still no clear
leader. It's within the margin of error. And over the weekend, one new poll from Iowa that's considered solid red shows Harris with a slight lead.
For more on all of this, we're joined by Mark Preston. Mark, good to have you with us. We'll come back to Iowa. Who has the momentum heading into
tomorrow's vote in your mind and with whom?
MARK PRESTON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Julia, I'd like to have that answer for you, because if I did, I could put some money down on some
football games and do well.
But look, we don't necessarily know. We can give you anecdotal evidence or thoughts that we're hearing from folks on the campaign trail at this point.
I will tell you, just speaking to Democratic consultants, even Democrats who aren't necessarily close to the Harris campaign, they don't necessarily
work well with them, they are telling me that they feel a bit boost of confidence going into Election Day, sand they point back to the vice
president's address on the Ellipse right outside of the White House where she really tried to draw a contrast between her and Donald Trump.
Now, at the same time, you know, you could play clips of Donald Trump right now, who was telling people, and he was saying this early in Reading,
Pennsylvania, that he is so far ahead right now, they've never been this far ahead. Almost to the point where it's absurd when he is talking about
where his stand is in the race. The bottom line is, in a long-winded statement, we just don't know yet.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. And anyone who says they do is lying to us. We've said that number of times this weekend. I think part of the story from this
weekend, and it's very interesting, was, as I mentioned, that Selzer pole from Iowa, considered one of the most reliable posters in the nation,
suggesting a 47 percent of Iowa voters support Harris versus 44 percent supporting Trump.
Admittedly, it's starkly different for many of the other polls, and -- well, I will tell my audience was based on 808 telephone interviews with
people 18 or older. So, we have to take the sample size into an account. But the details on that mark showed an incredibly strong support level for
Harris from women. And we keep coming back to this conversation, the sort of sex differences, but certainly for her, that real push.
PRESTON: I'll tell you what, if you go back to 2016, 2020, Donald Trump won Iowa. Now, I will say that Iowa does have a progressive streak. Those
who are Democrats are very liberal. I wouldn't say they're very liberal, but they do have this prairie liberalism to them.
But to your point, this is not a state that we gave any thought about necessarily, except in the primaries, except in the Republican primaries.
Other than that, Iowa was off the board. Now, assuming this poll is not an outlier and statistically, it is supposed to be the gold standard. The
question is, if she is up three points in Iowa, being driven more than likely by women voters, again, like we would have to see what happens
afterwards, but more than likely by suburban women and those late breaking voters who just can't stomach their -- the ability to go ahead and vote for
Donald Trump.
[18:05:00]
CHATTERLEY: So -- and I'll go back to this idea of the gender gap again and the polls, because I do think for all the different groups that the two
candidates have been reaching out to, for some reason, I keep coming back to this. And maybe it's sort of the abortion issue that's been so divisive
between the two parties in particular.
But I was looking at some of the early polling as well, the early voting and data from data management firm Catalyst looked at it and said that
actually the gender gap that we've seen in 2024 is actually narrowed from 2020. What does that tell you again about the differences that we're seeing
and perhaps in something that is so incredibly tight, perhaps how this changes the result?
PRESTON: Right. So, a couple of things, right? I'll just micro target the abortion issue, you know, going back to 2020. Young women voted by 11
points more than young men did, and that's according to a study from Tufts University. So, they have an 11-point advantage. Well, young women are more
likely to vote Democratic than they are Republican, OK. That is -- that statistically historically what we've seen and what we know.
To your point is, if we are seeing this increase in men being more registered and we're seeing this gender gap not only close amongst younger
women, but amongst younger men, then that spells problems for Harris.
But I will say this though, you have to wonder about the enthusiasm that Donald Trump has going into Election Day. It's very loud, it's very vocal,
it's very big. But will those same voters, male voters, will they go to the polls in the same numbers as young women will, given the abortion issue?
and I can tell you, I don't think they will.
So, the question is, again, we don't know the answer probably for a couple of days, if not a couple of weeks after the election is, who was able to
better work on their core group of supporters and get them out? And for Democrats, that was women. And for Donald Trump, that is men.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. I mean, this year, more than any other, I feel like going over and understanding exactly what happened is really going to be very
fascinating. But first, we need a result. Mark, good to have you with us. Thank you so much for your insights. Mark Preston there.
PRESTON: Thanks, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: All right. Let's get more now from Iowa and that Selzer poll I just mentioned, which has Harris leading Trump. The former president
pushing back on that and mentioning a further poll that has him significantly ahead by a fair margin.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: By the way, the polls are just as corrupt as some of the writers back there. They can make those polls sing. They can make them sing. They
brag about it. I got a poll. I'm 10 points up in Iowa. One of my enemies just puts out a poll, I'm three down.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Tom Barton is the Deputy Bureau Chief and politics reporter for the Iowa newspaper, The Gazette, and he joins us from Cedar Rapids,
Iowa. Welcome to the show, Tom.
I bet you had a busy weekend. Just give us a sense of what the last month has been like, because I think for many of us, we've been very focused and
fixated, in fact, on the swing states, but Iowa certainly drew a lot of attention this weekend. What's it been like there?
TOM BARTON, DEPUTY BUREAU CHIEF AND POLITICS REPORTER, THE GAZETTE: Yes, it certainly has. And to be honest with you the focus right now, these last
couple of months in Iowa, has not really been on the presidential race, it's been more on congressional races, specifically Iowa's 1st and 3rd
District congressional races.
You know, both parties are expecting to have narrow majorities come January, and there's a handful of races that could control or could decide
the control of Congress in these two Iowa races. These two congressional races have really been much of the focus because, as was mentioned earlier
in this program, you know, both campaigns had all but written Iowa off.
You know, neither Trump nor Vice President Harris has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primaries ended. And neither campaign has
established a ground presence in the state. They don't have paid campaign staff here, you know, we're not seeing the TV ads and the activity,
obviously, that you're seeing in battleground states. So, the focus and the momentum really has been focused on these congressional races.
And you know, as it was pointed out, Donald Trump safely carried Iowa both in 2016 and 2020 and the state has swung to the right in recent elections.
CHATTERLEY: Does it have the same feel, Tom, as in 2020, to your point? I mean, Donald Trump won the state the past two elections. Does this one feel
different? Just trying to get anecdotal flavor of whether anything has shifted as we just heard there from our previous guest, he said there's a
progressive streak in Iowa. You can describe perhaps better than me what that ultimately means. Does it feel different?
[18:10:00]
BARTON: It does feel different. And you definitely do get a sense of renewed enthusiasm and excitement among Iowa Democrats in the state with
the shakeup at the top of the ticket, with President Biden bowing out and Vice President Harris now as the nominee. And certainly, the abortion issue
has been a motivating factor, particularly for young women, suburban women in the states.
You know, just anecdotally, it seems like we are seeing more college students and young women getting involved in this election, voting and
expressing concerns on that abortion issue largely because this is the first election since and Iowa law went into effect restriction --
restricting abortion, excuse me, as early as six weeks into pregnancy.
Before then, legislation had been passed, but been tied up in the courts. And then, now, finally, it's been enacted and gone into effect. And so, you
know, Iowa women, people in the state are actually starting to, you know, see, I guess, the results and the implications, the results of this
legislation. And talking to some Iowa voters, you know, they say that abortion is definitely a main driver, a main issue for them, you know, in
both sides of that issue.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. Now, it actually matters and it has a personal feel as well for young people, which I think is vitally important. Tom Barton,
great to have you on.
BARTON: Right. A lot of women talking about having to leave the state.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, yes. I understand. Good to have you on, Tom. Thank you so much. Keep up the good work.
BARTON: Thank you. Yes.
CHATTERLEY: All right. No one knows who will win the election or when we might get the result, but the FBI taking no chances, setting up an election
command post in Washington to monitor and respond to any potential threats both during and then after Election Day. It's part of a wave of new
security measures.
I can give you a look, too, fencing installed around the White House over the weekend. The Pentagon now says the D.C. National Guard is ready to help
emergency services if they're required. This, as thousands of police officers are on alert across the nation.
Gabe Cohen is in Washington for us. Gabe, the fencing there is completely clear. What more do we know about their plans for heightened security if
it's needed over the coming days?
GABE COHEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, look, Julia, law enforcement, as you can imagine, is on high alert across the country right now. But the concern
is particularly acute here in D.C. given everything that happened in 2020 leading up to what happened on January 6, 2021.
You mentioned that FBI command center, that's actually just one of several that's going to be an operation tomorrow here in the nation's capital.
Earlier today, I was inside of another command center that's being operated by the police department, but they are going to have a federal law
enforcement, other local law enforcement officials who are going to be packed in that room tomorrow, trying to make sure people are safe on
Election Day.
And as you mentioned, the police presence, we know the police department here in D.C. is already fully activated and it will be until Friday. What
that means is that every officer in the city is going to be on the street working 12-hour shifts. In a lot of cases, closely monitoring the situation
at various polling locations, but even just on city streets all across Washington, D.C.
We have also, as you said, seen fencing pop up around the White House as well as Vice President Kamala Harris' residence at the Naval Observatory.
And then there are businesses in Downtown Washington that are boarding up because they are concerned, given the damage that they faced in 2020, and
they don't want to see that repeated this time around.
There was a press conference earlier today with D.C.'s mayor and police chief talking about Election Day security. Take a listen. Here's a clip
from the police chief here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHIEF PAMELA A. SMITH, D.C. METROPOLITAN POLICE: Let me be clear, there will be no tolerance for violence in our city. No destruction or any
unlawful behavior. As I've said before, we will hold all offenders accountable. We will not tolerate the destruction of property and we will
not tolerate threats to public safety as well as this election process.
Should it require additional time to know the results of this election, we want everyone to know that we are ready to handle many different scenarios
and we have the right people in place to keep our city safe.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COHEN: Now, to be clear, law enforcement here says they have not received information of any credible threats, but they are really preparing for the
worst-case scenario, which they say could include political violence, it could include a rioting, like what we saw in 2020. So, they just want to be
ready for the worst, and that could include asking for National Guard assistance.
D.C.'s mayor has said they already expect they will make that request at some point, at least in the coming weeks. But of course, here, they're
going to be dealing with the certification of the election on January 6th and then the inauguration day later in January. So, there is a lot to
expect here in the coming weeks.
[18:15:00]
We know that in states, Julia, like Oregon, Washington, and Nevada, the governors have already requested National Guard to be essentially on
standby just as a precaution. We know those ballot drop boxes were attacked in the State of Washington and Oregon. So, really a lot of concern across
the country here in D.C. They're really in wait and see mode in a lot of cases because they don't know what to expect from either side, depending on
the results of the election, if there could be a lot of protest here in the coming days and weeks, we will see.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, we've got to get through the vote to count and then the result and we shall see, as you say. Gabe Cohen, thank you.
COHEN: Thank you.
CHATTERLEY: All right. Straight ahead, the flooding crisis worsening in Spain. The northeast hit with heavy rains and warnings of more downpours to
come.
Plus, double digit stock market gains, strong corporate profits. Will a bullish year on Wall Street translate into a bullish Tuesday for the
incumbent Democrats? We'll hear from a veteran Wall Street watcher on what he expects, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: You're looking at images just into CNN, Vice President Harris on the campaign trail in Reading, Pennsylvania. She's at Old San Juan (ph)
Cafe. It's a Puerto Rican restaurant. She's with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Governor Shapiro, and she's going to be speaking in
Pittsburgh later. Lots of cameras there, an animated chat as you can see from AOC and the vice president.
Now, many Wall Street watchers believe the performance of U.S. stocks in an election year can accurately predict who will win the White House. Under
the so-called presidential predictor, when stocks rise during the three- month period from the last day of July through the last day of October, the incumbent president party usually wins.
Now, the formula has proven correct in all but two elections since World War II. This year, the S&P was up more than 3 percent during that period,
and that would normally point to a Harris win. But Stan Stovall, the Wall Street veteran who came up with the method, says he believes there are some
special circumstances this year.
Stan Stovall is the chief investment strategist from CFRA Research, and he joins me now. And where else could he join us, from the battleground State
of Pennsylvania and the City of Allentown. Sam, you are right in the heart of the action today. It's great to have you with us. OK. So, based on that
three-month reading of the S&P it does sound like the incumbent and therefore, Vice President Harris should win the election.
[18:20:00]
Is that what you think? Because I've seen some reports over the last few weeks that you might be sort of swaying.
STAN STOVALL, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CFRA RESEARCH: Well, Julia, first off, it's good to talk to you again. And yes, I guess I'm a little
bit human that my thoughts have been swaying back and forth, like some of the polls that we have been seeing, because there's a very interesting
series of similarities between 2024 and 1968, one of those two years in which the presidential predictor did not work, with the president stepping
aside, for the vice president to come in, the headwind being an unpopular war in Vietnam, where today it's a war against inflation and immigration.
But I'm also a rules follower and I'm going to go with the probabilities, which point to the presidential predictor saying that Kamala will likely be
the next president.
CHATTERLEY: But that example in '68 is very interesting. Lyndon Johnson chose not to run. He was then replaced by his vice president, obviously,
similar to what we've seen with President Biden and with Harris. And as you point out, at the same time, there was a, obviously, very unpopular war,
the Vietnam War taking place. We could also add in with what is unpopular for this White House, you mentioned inflation in the border. We've also got
the Israel-Gaza situation going on.
What about the Fed? Can we throw that in this year as well? We know the Federal Reserve's cutting rates, which arguably has also given stock
markets a lift, that might also play into a misreading this time around for Harris versus Trump.
STOVALL: Well, that's a good question, because of the 21 presidential elections since World War II, we have had the Fed change rate policy within
that three-month period eight times. Yet, interestingly enough, only twice did it actually affect the overall outcome. In 1968, the Fed did indeed cut
interest rates similar to what happened in 2024. The interest rate cut did not help Hubert Humphrey. So, if we find that Trump ends up being the
president, then we can chalk up one more similarity between these two periods.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. And also, the Republican opposition back then was Nixon, of course, too. And he's being vice president. So, he was a known quantity
in a similar way is the former president and Trump is today.
It's not just about the White House, though, it's also about Congress and what happens with the House and with the Senate. What are your House
expectations there? And can we draw a parallel with the performance and of stocks going forward? What's the best outcome for stock market investors?
STOVALL: Yes, absolutely. The best performance has been when there is a split Congress, meaning there is gridlock in Washington, D.C. And with a
Democratic president going back to World War II, we have had the market rise by almost 17 percent per year with a frequency of advance or like a
batting average, again, 83 percent of those observations.
The best Republican scenario would be a red wave, in which we see a near 13 percent rise and a 75 percent batting average of advance. So, basically,
when either Washington is fully united or you have gridlock, that's what tends to favor either the Democrats or the Republicans.
CHATTERLEY: Stan, have about 30 seconds left. Are you expecting volatility in stock markets or in assets this week, particularly if it takes some days
to get to a result?
STOVALL: Absolutely. First off, just looking at the days after the Election Day, the Wednesday, the Thursday, the Friday, on average, the
market has fallen. Also, during the month of November, during election year since World War II, we have seen 50 percent more volatility than the
average for the 11 other months of the year.
So, as Betty Davis once said, fasten your safety belt, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. And I'll say, keep calm and carry on the two Brits to end the conversation. Sam, good to have you. Thank you so much for the report
and your insights.
STOVALL: My pleasure.
CHATTERLEY: We'll see what happens. All right. Turning out to northeast Spain. Heavy rains on Monday disrupting travel in Barcelona, Spain's second
largest city, with passengers at the El Prat Airport wading through floodwaters. Take a look at that.
Highways in the area were also flooded. All commuter trains in Northeast Catalonia were suspended. And all this after last week's flooding
catastrophe in the Valencia region, where more than 200 people lost their lives. Rescue and cleanup operations do continue and frustration with the
government is growing as Atika Shubert reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ATIKA SHUBERT, SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The waters have receded but the scene remains apocalyptic. A week after the first
torrential rain, some normality is returning, barely.
[18:25:00]
Across Valencia, first responders and countless volunteers continue the search for the dozens still missing. Feared to be stuck beneath the mud, in
flooded garages, or warehouses where access is difficult.
The delay in aid has angered many in Valencia. Those frustrations erupted on Sunday when King Felipe and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visited the
badly affected suburb of Pai Porta. Asesino, they shouted, murderer.
King Felipe and Queen Letizia stayed to face people's anger. Prime Minister Sanchez did not, whisked away by security.
Hearing the stories of the many here who lost literally everything, and the criticism of those who believe the government failed them. It can't be like
this young man tells the king. They knew about the storm and did nothing.
Through rain and mud, they listen to the horror and please for food and water and power.
We only ask for help, this woman says. We're not asking for anything else.
Help has been arriving, often in the form of young volunteers, shocked to find they were the first to arrive.
DIEGO PERALTA, STUDENT VOLUNTEER: Yesterday, we was in one of the village. We don't know why the police, why the military, they don't go in. So --
SHUBERT: There were no police, no military there?
PERALTA: No police. No one was there.
SHUBERT (voice-over): Specialized equipment is finally coming through, days late. Power and water has been mostly restored to affected areas. But
for people in Valencia, it's too little, too slow, and too late.
Atika Shubert, CNN, Valencia, Spain.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: Now, amid those scenes of devastation, parts of Spain are facing even more rain. Plus, storms could affect voting day on -- in the
United States on Election Day. And believe it or not, a hurricane could soon form in the Caribbean. Chad Myers is tracking a very busy Monday at
the CNN Weather Center.
Chad, tell us more. Where do we want to start?
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I mean, I know there was just the Breeders Cup, but I have the trifecta here.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, you do.
MYERS You know, six inches of rainfall at the airport here in Spain, in Barcelona, made all those pictures. You saw people wading through the water
there at the airport and the jetways and the runways all completely flooded.
We still had some showers today, and it doesn't take a lot of rain now that the entire area is saturated. We just have rainfall on the ground
everywhere. You get another inch or two, another 50 millimeters. All of a sudden, you're going to start to push that water back up again.
Now, we're not going to have widespread rainfall like we had over the past couple of weeks, but there will be some areas with 25 millimeters or more.
Here's what it looks like. This is what the satellite looked like a couple of years ago and here's what it looked like just a couple of days ago. All
of the mud, all of the water coming down through the rivers and back out to the ocean there in Valencia.
Now, to the election. Severe weather in parts of the central parts of the United States. Tornadoes are actually on the ground right now. Severe
weather possible tomorrow, but not as much as today. It'll just be a rain event. And people don't like to go out and vote in the rain. About 1
percent lower population of voters when it's actually raining about an inch or more. So, just about 25 millimeters, 30 millimeters could slow things
down.
And now, we have Tropical Storm Rafael. This is the first storm here in the Caribbean that south like here in November for a very long time. Hurricane
warnings for Grand Cayman all the way up through hurricane watches in Cuba.
Where does it go from there? Well, the models are completely, I don't want to say disinterested, but they certainly aren't agreeing on whether it goes
to the south like the European model or goes up toward the north. What they all have in common, though, is that it is not going to stay a big, big
hurricane because this is what you could see when the rain falls in the plains or anywhere here because parts of the deep south of the U.S. is also
saturated a lot like Spain. Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Wow. Crazy images.
MYERS: Yes.
CHATTERLEY: Chad Myers, thank you for that report. We'll continue to watch it. We'll be right back. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:30:00]
CHATTERLEY: Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris pulling out all the stops in the last day of campaigning before the big vote, and
most of them -- both of them must pursue must-win swing State Pennsylvania. Harris spending her entire day in the state, Donald Trump campaigning in
Pennsylvania too as well as two other swing states, North Carolina and Michigan.
Brian Todd takes a closer look at the must-win state and the pressure on officials to deliver free and fair results.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In battleground Pennsylvania, the state that could be decisive, mixed opinions from some voters on how
secure the voting and the counting will be.
ELIANA DURHAM, PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: Very. It seems very trustworthy.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I dropped my ballot off and who knows what's going to happen after this.
TODD (voice-over): Amid claims and counterclaims about voting problems and voting fraud in Pennsylvania.
TRUMP: They are fighting so hard to steal this damn thing.
TODD (voice-over): Today, news on the investigation into an issue raised last week.
TRUMP: Because they've already started cheating in Lancaster, they've cheated. We caught them with 2,600 votes.
TODD (voice-over): Lancaster County today updating its investigation into a batch of suspicious applications received. It found 17 percent were
fraudulent, 57 percent were legitimate, and 26 percent are still being reviewed.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Some of those applications were in the same handwriting.
TODD (voice-over): The county not saying if the submissions were for Democrats or Republicans, but insisting the system worked and they were
merely applications.
RAY D'AGOSTINO, VICE CHAIRMAN, LANCASTER COUNTY: None of those people were permitted to vote, so these were not votes or ballots.
TODD (voice-over): Another issue, long lines to vote by mail early in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, which Joe Biden won in 2020. The deadline
extended amid a GOP lawsuit. And extension in Erie County as well after Democrats sued because thousands of voters did not receive their on-demand
mail-in ballots in time due to a vendor error.
DANIEL DALE, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: We have these things all the time, right? It's not a perfect process. But the integrity of the process has
never been compromised.
TODD (voice-over): And then, there is this fake video, which circulated on social media purporting to show someone tearing up mail-in ballots marked
for Trump in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. U.S. intelligence concluding Russian operatives were behind it. Again, this video is fake.
The Philadelphia D.A. today also warning against any disruption or voter intimidation.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Anybody who thinks it's time to play militia, F around and find out.
TODD (voice-over): A broader issue raised by Trump, how long it might take to count Pennsylvania votes. In 2020, Pennsylvania was not called until
almost four days of counting. Experts agree the laws of Pennsylvania are not built for speed.
[18:35:00]
DALE: Certainly, they could have done more to tighten up their system and to make it more efficient.
TODD (voice-over): But election officials say any delay means the state is being careful, not nefarious, even giving tours to show how ballots are
kept under lock and key.
OMAR SABIR, CHAIRMAN, PHILADELPHIA BOARD OF ELECTIONS: That this process is secure.
TODD (voice-over): The overall takeaway --
DALE: People who are inclined to believe that the election is fraudulent or that there are issues with the election are going to be more inclined to
believe those stories.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: Stay with first move, plenty more to come.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move." A judge in Pennsylvania has ruled Elon Musk can continue his daily million-dollar giveaway to voters.
It's a short-lived victory for Musk. The sweepstakes is set to end, of course, on Election Day, but he's had several days. Philadelphia's district
attorney called the lottery a, quote, "grift," accusing Musk of trying to unlawfully influence the election.
And this election cycle has seen a, quote, "unprecedented" amount of disinformation, according to a top American cyber official. And we're
getting new analysis on, again, how Elon Musk has used his social media platform X to influence the race for the White House. The analysis comes
from the Center for Countering Digital Hate. The Center finds Musk's misleading election claims have been viewed more than 2 billion times.
For more on this, we're joined by Hadas Gold. What more information did this analysis provide? And do we have a sense of what it would cost to buy
this kind of coverage in advertising spend?
HADAS GOLD, CNN MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Julia, Elon Musk has already given more than 118 million to help Donald Trump be elected president once
again. But now, we're learning that if you count up all of the sort of in- kind contribution he's made on his platform X, that's even more millions upon millions of dollars.
On X, this is according to the Center for Countering Digital Hate, Musk's political posts since he endorsed Donald Trump in July have been viewed
17.1 billion times. That's twice as many as all political advertisements on the platform combined. So, any political advertisement other campaigns have
taken out, his posts about the election have been viewed twice as much. That's the equivalent of spending roughly $24 million if you were trying to
reach that same audience.
Really, you could see his posts as almost an in-kind contribution of $24 million. Keep in mind, Elon Musk not only owns X, he is also the most
followed account on the platform.
[18:40:00]
The Center for Countering Digital Hate also looked at specific posts from Elon Musk that they labeled as misleading or disinformation completely or
completely false information, and they found 87 specific posts that they said shared misinformation, and that those were viewed more than 2 billion
times. That's a lot of views for some misinformation.
And I want to pull up an example of one of these posts. One thing that Elon Musk often pushes is that Democrats, he alleges, falsely are trying to
literally move immigrants around the country to try to turn swing states blue. So, he posted something like this, triple digit increases of illegals
in swing states over the past four years, voter importation at an unparalleled precedent of scale. That is a false or at best misleading
allegation. And that is one of those 87 posts that this analysis says were viewed so many times.
Now, overall, Julia, since Elon Musk took over Twitter, since he bought what was once Twitter now called X, the entire site has become more right
leaning, more conservative. In fact, I'm sure you remember the Wall Street Journal just did their own analysis where they created X accounts and they
had them only interested in topics like crafts and sports, things that are not political. And they said that those accounts very quickly were
blanketed with political content and a steady diet of posts that lean not only towards Former President Donald Trump, but sow doubt about the
integrity of this election coming up.
So, Elon Musk has not only removed so many of the guardrails around X that we're trying to protect users from misinformation, guardrails, the trust
and safety teams, but now we're seeing that he is pushing so much of that misinformation himself and it's obviously getting in front of a lot of
eyeballs right before the election.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, but one of the arguments for him purchasing it in the first place and the criticism of Twitter then was that it was very left
leaning. So, I guess they would argue that this is more centrist now for the right persuasion. But yes, no justification for the misinformation
spreading. Hadas Gold, thank you for that report.
Now, amid the dis and misinformation maelstrom, it might also be days before we know the election result, particularly in states like Wisconsin,
Arizona, and Nevada. And then, of course, whoever wins. One thing's for sure, roughly half of the nation will be unhappy and possibly suspicious of
the result.
And then, there's the fact that the election takes place amid a backdrop of change and instability, new technologies, fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, the
war in Ukraine with North Korea now providing troops to Russia, not to mention slowing Chinese growth. And I'm just picking a few issues. Plenty
to discuss and no one better than with Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. Ian, great to have you on the show, particularly on
this day.
IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP AND GZERO MEDIA AND AUTHOR, "THE POWER OF CRISIS": Thank you.
CHATTERLEY: We'll start micro and go macro. With the presidential elections, you said in your state of the world update recently, you have no
idea who's going to win. And I think that's how everyone feels. But you did make a point that, one, over two-thirds of the country is saying we're
headed in the wrong direction. It's an argument for change, if nothing else.
BREMMER: That's right. Julia, if Trump weren't running in this election, if it was any other Republican, this would be a slam dunk for the GOP. Over
70 percent of Americans say that country is not heading in the right direction. And you and I have watched elections like that all around the
world this year. And the incumbents have gotten thumped in the United Kingdom, in France, in Germany, in Austria, in Japan just a week ago, in
India, in South Africa, and soon in Canada, but Trump is a uniquely unpopular and increasingly seen as unfit presidential candidate, which is
why this race is so incredibly close.
And I mean, truly, you're guessing at this point, if you say you have confidence about what's going to happen tomorrow.
CHATTERLEY: Gut feel, Ian, at this moment?
BREMMER: Intellectually, I would say I think Trump is going to win because of what I just told you. But I will say that the momentum has clearly
shifted over the last few days. The ground game for Kamala Harris in swing states clearly shows that she's doing better than she had been. My friends
that are close to Trump are much more worried heading into tomorrow than they were a week ago. My friends that are close to Kamala are more
enthusiastic.
So, if that tells you anything, you know, you'd say that this race has shifted a fair amount in the last, let's say, 70 to 96 hours.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, the bigger point, and you make it, again, in your state of the world, was that no matter who wins, you're going to have tens of
millions of Americans that think that their political system is broken. You're not arguing with them, and you can explain why. But also, that we
have a post-election period where half the country feels, in some way, that there's an illegitimate winner of this election.
[18:45:00]
How do we address that? How do we get out of that situation? And we'll talk about what it means for the rest of the world after.
BREMMER: Well, the easiest way to address it is the person that loses concedes, right? And I think that will happen if Trump wins. I think that
won't happen if Harris wins. And that's a big problem because it's not just about -- I mean, yes, there will be a lot of Harris supporters that if
Trump wins will say this is illegitimate and he's not my president and I'm angry. There'll be members of Congress that will say that. But as long as
Harris concedes and says, actually, no, we're moving on and we are with -- we have to recognize that Trump is the president, that will do a lot of
good to stabilize the environment.
The very fact that every sinew of Trump's body seems to orient against that, and frankly, so too Elon Musk, the richest and most powerful
individual in the country today, I think is a very big problem. And it's one of the reasons, frankly, that political stability will be much better
off in the U.S. if it's not a close battle. In other words, if all seven swing states go to either Harris or Trump, the political transition will be
much smoother and that will be better for the rest of the world over the last few months -- over the next few months than if it isn't true.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, a decisive result whoever wins. What do you see is the most important and biggest difference geopolitically between a Harris win
versus a Trump win? Does it have to be Ukraine? Russia? We've now got the North Korean influence now with troops there to, which there hasn't got
enough coverage, I don't think, over the last couple of weeks?
BREMMER: It has in Europe, of course, because it's existential for them, but it hasn't in the United States and in much other parts of the world.
Yes. Yes. So, two things here. First of all, Julia, I do believe that policy is more different between Harris and Trump on Russia, Ukraine, then
on China, where, I mean, frankly, Biden and Trump's policies have been very similar. There's a lot of bipartisan agreement on general orientation
towards China. On the Middle East, where Trump is more pro-Netanyahu and pro-Israel than Harris would be, but Harris would also be strongly pro-
Israel as a key ally. I don't think it would be radically different.
Russia-Ukraine is very different. Here you would have Harris coordinating with the European allies, then working with Ukraine and trying to present a
united front to Putin. Trump would not work with the Europeans, would unilaterally call Zelenskyy and Putin separately to freeze and end the war
where it is. And the latter approach might succeed, but would deeply unnerve America's European allies. It would be seen by many of them as an
existential crisis. So, that is a -- that's a radical difference between the two.
And as you mentioned, North Korea. The North Koreans have sent troops, combat troops, to fight in Kursk over 8,000 now. Kursk is in Russia, and
the NATO secretary general and the U.S. government has said this is a material escalation. But I will tell you that if those troops are sent to
fight inside Ukraine, the United States is warning Russia that that could lead to NATO troops being sent into Ukraine, NATO combat troops.
In other words, this is a very significant escalation. Putin has a very serious decision ahead of him. And if Trump wins, the potential that the
Biden team in the last couple months of the administration will try very, very hard to shore that up and Putin will try to score points in advance of
that phone call makes this the next few months on Russia-Ukraine are, in my view, incredibly dangerous if there is an uncertain transition.
CHATTERLEY: And, Ian, I have 30 seconds. Do you expect protests? America's adversaries are watching this and loving the instability, this election. Do
you expect protests as a result --
BREMMER: The closer the election is, the greater the protests will be.
CHATTERLEY: Yes.
BREMMER: I don't expect civil war, but I do think that if this election is contested and if one of the candidates is saying that this is stolen and
rigged, I think there'll be a lot of instability in the U.S. and frankly, I expect there'll be violence. I really don't want to see that pass. It won't
be like January 6th because Washington, D.C. itself will be locked down. But the rest of the country, I think, is walking on eggshells right now and
there's a lot of anxiety around what's about to happen in my country tomorrow.
[18:50:00]
CHATTERLEY: Yes, we all feel it. Ian, good to have you. Thank you.
BREMMER: Good seeing you, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. All right. Still to come, all eyes on this presidential election now, just in
the United States, of course, but internationally also. We'll take a look at how the result could shape the world, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move." 24 hours from now, Election Day voting will be well underway in the United States and the polls still show
a dead heat. And with so much at stake, the International Community is clearly watching, as we were just discussing.
Our correspondents have the latest perspectives from around the world about what the impact of this presidential election may be. Let's go first to
Mike Valerio for the view from South Korea.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MIKE VALERIO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, for millions of South Koreans, one of the biggest consequences of the U.S. election involves North Korea.
Specifically, could the next U.S. president decide to keep the roughly 30,000 U.S. troops here on the Korean Peninsula in part as a security
guarantee against North Korea, or could the next U.S. president decide to reduce the number of U.S. troops here on the peninsula.
Certainly, Former President Trump has considered doing so in the past, and in 2018, he paused military exercises between South Korea and the United
States. That pause happened when Trump was negotiating with North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, over Kim's nuclear program. But under the Biden-Harris
administration, those military exercises between South Korea and the United States have begun once again.
In fact, the Biden-Harris White House takes credit for the formation of a new security partnership between Japan, the United States, and South Korea,
forged in part to counter North Korean threats. So, security looming large here as we await the results of the U.S. election.
Mike Valerio, CNN, Seoul.
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CHIEF GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Here in Israel, the U.S. presidential election is being closely watched. The outcome being
seen as having a direct impact on this country, too, which is, of course, fighting in Gaza and Lebanon and engaged in a spiraling confrontation with
Iran. One recent opinion poll here suggests a clear majority of Israelis favor Trump over Harris to become the leader of Israel's most important
ally.
Trump is remembered for a series of pro-Israel moves when he was president, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli
annexation of the Golan Heights, and taking a tougher stance on Iran, while the Biden administration, including Vice President Harris, is seen by many
here as having sought to restrain Israel's tough military response in a year since the October the 7th attacks.
LARRY MADOWO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Larry Madowo in Nairobi, where a lot of people here in Kenya and across Africa are watching the U.S. election
with interest. They know that whoever sits in the White House has an impact even here in Africa.
[18:55:00]
And speaking to people even while I've been here on the street, a lot of them tell me they like Donald Trump. They like that he speaks his mind.
They're aware of his more controversial comments, reportedly having called some African nations -- whole countries. But they like that they know where
they stand with him. And for many religious Africans as well, they're attracted to his opposition to abortion, to LGBT rights.
Many Africans also know that Kamala Harris has Jamaican heritage. Therefore, her roots trace back to Africa. But they even know that she's
been traveling in Africa's VP to Ghana, to Zambia, and to Tanzania. But there's just a certain attraction to Donald Trump, the myth of the
successful businessman, and that is just another reason why they're more attracted to the candidacy of Donald Trump and they think he'll be a better
president for Africa.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: And that just about wraps up the show. You can watch our continuous coverage in just hours from now as U.S. voters cast their
ballots. Election Night in America begins at 4:00 p.m. New York time. That's 9:00 p.m. in London. And we will see you very soon.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:00:00]
END
