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Glenn Beck

Hillary Gets Surprise Win in New Hampshire; Is Huckabee Flip- Flopping on Anchor Babies?; Rudy Giuliani Counting on Later States

Aired January 09, 2008 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GLENN BECK, HOST (voice-over): Tonight, Hillary Clinton`s remarkable comeback.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I found my own voice.

BECK: Is it because voters are now seeing the human side of Hillary?

CLINTON: We have to reverse it.

BECK: And if so, is it real or a political ploy?

Plus the 14th Amendment says if you`re born in the U.S., you can stay. But a new debate is raging over extending that right to the children of illegals.

And an honor killing in the west. Perhaps. Two inseparable sisters allegedly shot dead by their strict Muslim father. How is this happening in America? And why are we the only ones talking about it?

All this and more tonight.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BECK: Well, hello, America. What a difference a day makes, huh? I felt so right yesterday. Now I just feel so dirty I can`t get clean. New Hampshire primary has come and gone. Surprise, surprise. Hillary Clinton came out on top, beating Barack Obama by a three-point margin.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: I -- I come tonight with a very, very full heart. I listened to you, and in the process, I found my own voice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BECK: That is so sweet. It is so -- people like you if you cry a lot. That`s so nice. I`ll have more on that in just a bit and why the polling projections were so far off, but first here`s "The Point" tonight.

Not only did Hillary Clinton win yesterday`s primary; she also won the crying game. It seems that her emotional episode from Monday afternoon proved what some doubted for so long, that, yes, she is actually human. And here`s how I got there.

I know that men and women are different. Or at least that`s what they tell me. I think I`m practically 100 percent chick, but that`s a different story. In the worlds of business and politics, a man is seen as tough and strong, but a woman is labeled the "B" word too often if she`s the same way a man is.

But this steely exterior isn`t something that we thrust upon Hillary Clinton. It is armor-plated pantsuits that she has proudly strapped on herself for years. As a lawyer, first lady, senator and now presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton has always chosen to present herself as the position, which is always an uncomfortable word to use when you`re talking about a Clinton, but that`s, again, a different story. She wants to present herself as the position and not the person, let alone a woman.

That all changed in New Hampshire. Last weekend Clinton admitted that it hurt her feelings that voters told pollsters that they found Obama more likable than they found her. A couple of days later, on the campaign trail, her eyes filled with tears, and her voice broke with emotion while she said, "How do I do it? How do I do it?"

Well, it worked. Even those deep political thinkers over at "The View" seem to agree.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOY BEHAR, CO-HOST, ABC`S "THE VIEW": She cries, she`s too emotional. She doesn`t cry, she`s a bitch. No matter what this woman does, she can`t win.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BECK: So tonight America, here`s what you need to know. The primary season is far from over. It`s far from a lot for Obama. Now seeing the voters are looking at a kinder, gentler Hillary Clinton, they might actually start feeling that a more experienced candidate like her is what they want.

Plus don`t forget Super-duper Tuesday and 27 more primaries are still coming our way.

Peter Fenn is a former Gore adviser and Democratic strategist, and Michael Reagan is the nationally syndicated host of the Michael Reagan talk show, as well as a GOP strategist.

Hey, guys.

Peter, let me -- let me start with you. Did Hillary win this or did Barack lose it?

PETER FENN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: You know, I think she won it. Look, a week, we used to say, is an eternity in politics. In this case, a weekend was an eternity in politics.

And I think her performance in that debate, where she joked about the likeability, I think the emotion she showed in the coffee shop, you know, it really connected with women voters. Forty-six percent of them voted for her.

Is she going to win this thing? Who the heck knows? But you know what I love is they stuck it to the press. They stuck it to the pundits like us who think we had all the answers.

BECK: Oh, yes, oh, no. I feel like a dope today.

FENN: It`s great, though. And that`s what elections are all about. I love this part of politics.

BECK: I will tell you this. And Michael, I don`t know if you feel this way. I am -- I`m thrilled for the American people. I am -- we`re not sheep. Nobody is being led around with a ring in their nose. And I think that`s fantastic.

MICHAEL REAGAN, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: I think it`s great for our business and what is going on. The fact that McCain now wins in New Hampshire. You have Huckabee in Iowa, you have Michigan coming up and you have Mitt Romney in Wyoming looking like he`s ahead in Michigan. This time you got Rudy Giuliani, I think he`s still in it, but he`s hiding in Florida somewhere, hoping for Super Tuesday to give him a reprieve, if you will, in the campaign.

But if I can get back just for a moment -- and welcome back. By the way, my wife last night -- I already knew the story -- was telling me all about you. And she wishes you the best.

BECK: You know, something, Michael, and I mean this sincerely, women are always talking about my butt.

REAGAN: But no, no, my wife -- my wife was talking about what your wife did to bring you back.

BECK: Thank you very much.

REAGAN: That`s what my wife was talking about.

But let me tell you something. You know, let me look at and talk to you about Hillary Clinton from the other side. You`ve got to understand, I`ve been down this road. Nobody else in this room has been down the same road I`ve been in going to campaigns, losing them in `76, winning them in 1980, in 1984. And the pressure that`s put on you. Eighteen-hour days, door-knock campaigning.

She`s worked her whole life to be president of the United States of America. And on that day, the pollsters were also telling her, she was going to lose the next day in New Hampshire. Did she well up? Absolutely she did. It was the right question at the right time. I don`t think it was phony, because I`ve seen the Reagan family cry, too, when we`re about ready to lose.

BECK: Let me -- let me ask you this. You`re in such a unique position to answer this. I think Mitt Romney has a lot in common with your dad in 1976. Do you feel that way at all, that he`s...?

REAGAN: No, I don`t. Because let me tell you, I told a bunch of college kids back in August. Any one of them could be a surrogate speaker for Ronald Reagan. Because Ronald Reagan was so consistent over the years...

BECK: I don`t mean ideology. Just it`s the same kind of -- but it`s the same kind of...

REAGAN: Whoa. My dad never looked that good 24 hours a day.

BECK: All right. Peter, John Edwards, I listened to him last night give a speech, and I mean, why not just start wearing the Soviet star on your head and the Workers World Party? Lord in heaven. Was it a mistake for him to go after her for crying and then also to join this great Soviet state?

FENN: I`ll tell you, I think he is about -- he`s a parody on himself. He`s so over the top, this guy, when he criticized Hillary and said, well, you know, you have to be tough to be president, I thought to myself, "Buddy, what is your problem? I mean, what are you thinking?"

First of all, it`s not going to help you. But I think Edwards is -- he`ll go on, he`ll be around. We`ll have to deal with -- and I`ll tell you, if they cover every one of his speeches where he says the exact same thing every single time...

BECK: Thank you. Thank you. Guys, thanks a lot.

Now let`s go to Hillary Clinton. She -- she won yesterday, which was a surprise to -- well, at least to the pollsters. She won the primary by 3 points. What happened to Barack Obama`s landslide victory? The post-Iowa polls were projecting that Obama would beat Clinton by 10 points plus. And yet she managed to squeak out a win.

Considering how much weight some polls carry, especially at this point in the election cycle, should we even be listening to these polls? How wide is the gap between what people say they`re going to do and what they actually end up doing in the voting booth?

Larry Sabato is director of politics at the University of Virginia, the author of "Get in the Booth."

Larry, how shocked were you when you saw the polls last night?

LARRY SABATO, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Well, like everybody else, I`ve seen nine very respectable surveys that showed Barack Obama winning either handily or by a mile. So absolutely. And I`ll tell you one thing, Glenn, I`m awfully glad to tell people I`m not a pollster. Because they`re doing a lot of explaining today.

BECK: My gosh. I mean, when are we going to stop listening to these polls? You had 2000 -- just in the recent. You had 2000, 2004, 2006. Now you`ve got it again. What is going on with the polls? Can we ever trust any of these polls?

SABATO: Well, sure, look, most of the time most of them are right. Every now and then they`re all wrong. This is an example; 1948 and Harry Truman was another example. But generally they are right.

But I do think what happened last night was a very useful reminder to people that we ought to be very careful about using the polls too much.

BECK: Yes.

SABATO: You know, remember what happened. We had, for a long time, the polls telling us that Hillary Clinton was absolutely inevitable. Why even bother having an election? And then Barack Obama wins Iowa. And then the polls said he`s inevitable. So let`s just shut down the operation.

BECK: How could you -- how could you be as much as 13 points wrong in some of these polls? How could that happen? What is your theory on that?

SABATO: Well, I`ve got a couple theories. I certainly think the turnout model that most of the polls had was wrong. They expected perhaps fewer people to vote than actually voted in New Hampshire.

But look, there could have been, among a very small percentage in New Hampshire, some racial voting. Remember, this frequently happens with African-American candidates. And elections are won at the margins. It could make a difference.

BECK: Wait, what do you mean? You`d be a white person and say you`d vote for Barack and then you wouldn`t?

SABATO: That`s exactly right. That`s happened in many elections involving African-Americans with a small percentage. Not a big percentage.

BECK: Let me ask you this. Do you think it`s -- it`s more likely -- because I could see -- I could see a lot of people doing this. "Yes, I`ll vote for Barack Obama," but then you close the curtain and you`re like, gosh, I mean, we`re facing all of these troubles. We`ve got to -- you close the curtain and you`re thinking, he`s going to have his finger on the button. Is he the guy that has the experience to do it? Isn`t it just as likely, instead of race, that it was experience?

SABATO: Well, it`s possible. Look, anything`s possible. I tell you, Glenn, I haven`t met many voters who haven`t decided by the time they get to the booth and close the curtain. I`ve met a few in line who haven`t decided. But most people know for whom they`re going to vote by the time they get in there.

BECK: Are you saying to me that I`m alone in America? Because there have been times that I have stood -- I`ve put my hand on the switch and I thought, OK, I`m going to vote for, can I really do it? And I debate, you know, myself. Maybe it`s just me. You know, I`m crazy like that.

SABATO: You`re argumentative, Glenn.

BECK: Larry, thanks a lot.

SABATO: You argue with yourself.

BECK: If you really want to understand how easy it is for opinion polls to get it wrong, I want you to pick up a copy of my book, "The Inconvenient Book." We did our homework on polling. And we found -- we found out stuff that will make blood shoot right out of your eyes.

Like for instance, did you know the order of the names in a poll has a huge impact on the outcome? Wait until you see it. It is unbelievable. You will never listen to a poll again. Read it, "An Inconvenient Book." You can order your copy right now at GlennBeck.com or find it in book stores everywhere.

Coming up, Mike Huckabee wants to change the 14th Amendment, or does he? Flip-flop or not? I don`t really even know what`s going on anymore. Let`s take a look at the issues behind illegals giving birth in the United States.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECK: Coming up in just a bit, American credit card debt is rising to alarming levels. And we`re all about to feel the effects of that as a nation. It is a credit crunch. And it is going to be a gigantic hurdle getting our economy back on track. If you`re one of the watchmen in the wall, you make sure you lock it in right now. "The Real Story" is coming up in just a few minutes.

But first, any baby born in the United States is a U.S. citizen, even if its parents are illegal immigrants. I, for one, disagree having an anchor baby, they should not be -- there shouldn`t be any loopholes that illegal immigrants can slip through.

A report in the "Washington Times" this week suggested that Mike Huckabee had a similar point of view. And I was thrilled. I`m like, "Wait a minute, wait a minute," maybe I can vote for Mike Huckabee.

Last night CNN`s Wolf Blitzer asked Huckabee for clarification, and here`s what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: On the issue of birthright, citizenship for anyone born in the United States, are you now suggesting that children of illegal immigrants who are born in the United States should not be allowed to get U.S. citizenship?

MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No, I did not advocate that. I said that the Supreme Court would have to make that decision. If they review that decision, we would follow what they have ruled.

BLITZER: Because when I heard the report earlier today I was a little surprised, given what you`ve told me and many other reporters in recent weeks...

HUCKABEE: Right.

BLITZER: ... that children should not be punished for the failures or mistakes or crimes of their parents. And I just wanted to clarify your position on this issue.

HUCKABEE: Yes, the report -- it was a report in the newspaper. And it was not attributed to me. It was attributed to a conversation that someone had had with me. And it was disappointing that the reporter, who filed the report, never bothered to contact our campaign before filing the story to find out was there validity to it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BECK: OK. So Mike Huckabee says he was misrepresented and that`s it, right? No. Not so fast.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: By the way, the "Washington Times" is telling CNN that its reporter did, in fact, speak to a spokeswoman for the Huckabee campaign before publishing that article suggesting that Huckabee was moving away from citizenship for children of illegal immigrants born in the United States. They`re disputing that they didn`t call his campaign.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BECK: I got to tell you, if Mike Huckabee didn`t say it, I wish somebody would.

Jim Gilchrist is founder of the Minutemen Project, Mike Huckabee`s immigration adviser and the guy at the root of this -- this controversy.

Shame on you.

JIM GILCHRIST, FOUNDER, MINUTEMAN PROJECT: Hi, Glenn.

BECK: How are you?

GILCHRIST: Very good. What happened to me is what happens to every newspaper reporter across the country. They take things out of context and go to press with it.

BECK: OK.

GILCHRIST: In this case, I am fully to blame. What you heard the governor say to Wolf Blitzer is exactly his intent. But taking notes, not using a tape recorder, giving it to my press guy, it was lost in translation. And I am fully to blame for this.

BECK: So it`s not his idea. He doesn`t want to do it. Do you want to do it?

GILCHRIST: Absolutely. That`s why I brought it up.

BECK: Why wouldn`t somebody want to -- I mean, anybody who doesn`t know the history of the 14th Amendment, it was ratified in 1868, somewhere in that area.

GILCHRIST: 1880s, yes. Sixty-eight, yes. Yes.

BECK: And it was more slaves who had children -- it was overturning of the Dred Scott decision.

GILCHRIST: Exactly.

BECK: And it was about African-Americans, not illegal immigrants, but people we drug here against their will to work in our -- in our fields. Its time has come and gone. Why isn`t anybody willing to say, you know what? Maybe we should change the Constitution?

GILCHRIST: Well, apparently, Governor Huckabee is not going to lead the charge on that, but he certainly is not going to interfere with anyone else leading the charge.

And my feeling is that eventually the Supreme Court is going to get this issue, and we are going to get a precise definition of the true meaning of the 14th Amendment, through either a Supreme Court decision or through the constituency pushing their congressional representatives to introduce a 28th Amendment, specifically prohibiting illegal alien children from becoming U.S. citizens.

BECK: You know -- Jim...

GILCHRIST: That`s a perfect world for me.

BECK: I`m -- I`m reading a book now called "The Real Benjamin Franklin." And it`s the real story behind him. He was a fascinating guy. And I actually thought of you and the Minutemen.

GILCHRIST: Me?

BECK: Yes, I did. I thought of you and the Minutemen, that this is exactly the kind of thing that Benjamin Franklin would have set up. I mean, that`s when he was talking about militias. He`s the guy who set up the militias, because the government wouldn`t do it. And he said, we need to protect ourselves. And so he -- he put that together. And I was thinking about you guys.

But I have to tell you, Jim, I don`t understand your endorsement for Huckabee. Huckabee does not have a great -- I mean, who does? But he doesn`t have a great stance on illegal immigration and the border, does he? Help me out.

GILCHRIST: Great -- great question, Glenn, thank you. But you answered your own question. You said no one does. What I have found in Mike Huckabee is someone who is willing to accept the challenge to take this bull by the horns and finally resolve it.

BECK: OK. But wait. But let me -- let me say this, because we`ve only got a minute left.

GILCHRIST: Yes.

BECK: And answer this. Mike -- where Mike Huckabee goes wrong -- and it`s where he goes right, as well -- he has so much compassion in him. And, you know, he follows the teachings of Jesus and everything else. But that`s why he always issues paroles for people, and then they go out and kill people, because he`s got this compassion.

I`m just so afraid he`s going to see these families and say, "But they are families," and so nothing will happen. And he`ll be blinded by compassion again.

GILCHRIST: I think you`ll find that Mike Huckabee will never lie to you, nor will he ever make a promise that he does not intend to keep.

And as far as my endorsement of Mike Huckabee, I`m standing by it right to the end. I was right in creating the Minuteman Project. I was right in bringing the largest assembly of Minutemen since the Revolutionary War to Arizona in 2005, and I`m right about Mike Huckabee. When he becomes president, you`re going to see how right I am.

BECK: You`re -- I hope that`s right, Jim. And your endorsement does mean a lot to a lot of people. I appreciate it. Thank you very much.

GILCHRIST: Thank you, sir.

BECK: Now, 20,000 votes and a fourth-place finish is the gift New Hampshire gave to Rudy Giuliani. And after a poor showing in Iowa, does he have the chance to bounce back? It`s called Super Tuesday. His strategy, coming up with one of his advisors, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECK: All right. The news surrounding Iowa and New Hampshire has mainly been about a handful of candidates: frontrunners Clinton, Obama, Huckabee, Romney. But the primary season is far from over. Please, dear God, let it end soon.

There`s delegate-rich states still ripe for the picking. And Rudy Giuliani`s waiting game could turn out to be a brilliant plan. Maybe it`s finally time for supporting players to get ready for their close-ups.

Paul Cellucci is the former governor of Massachusetts and an adviser to the Giuliani campaign.

Paul, thanks for being here, especially today. I have to tell you, if Rudy Giuliani was here, I`d practically French kiss him with what was announced today. I know he doesn`t go that way, but neither do I. But if he would like it, for that kind of a tax cut, I`m in. Tell me about the announcement.

PAUL CELLUCCI, ADVISOR TO THE GIULIANI CAMPAIGN: Well, it`s the biggest tax cut in American history. And the thing I like most about it is we`ve got a candidate who has a track record of cutting taxes when he was the mayor of New York. The tax burden went down 17 percent during his years, a 25-percent reduction in the income tax that individuals paid and significant broad-based tax relief for the companies.

And one of the big parts of the plan he announced today was to cut the corporate tax in America, which is one of the highest in the world.

BECK: It is the highest now. I mean, everybody wonders why our jobs are going overseas. We have the highest corporate tax rate in the world. Of course when you do that, you`re going to be saying, "Hello, welcome to Apple." Of course you`re going to get that.

CELLUCCI: Exactly right.

BECK: So -- so tell me how you`re going to afford a -- and I hate this question, and I apologize for it. I don`t know the answer. How you`re going to afford a tax cut of this size, how are you going to -- what are you going to do to curb the spending?

CELLUCCI: Well, a couple of things. One, Rudy`s a supply-sider. He knows from his time in New York City, when you cut taxes, you stimulate economic activity and the revenue coming into the government actually goes up.

Secondly, because of the deficit, he knows we have to get control of spending. He`s got a track record of doing it in New York City, where he had significant reductions in the civilian workforce. He accepted police. He put more police on the streets and more teachers in the classroom. But there was a lot of bureaucracy.

BECK: Yes.

CELLUCCI: And a lot of civilian employees New York City did not need, he got rid of them. And one of the things he`s talking about as president is, as we retire non-military and non-intelligence civilian employees of the federal government, let`s only replace one of every two who retires. This could save us $22 billion per year. And let`s use technology like the private sector does.

BECK: OK. So now, Rudy Giuliani is -- they`re all upset at him up in New Hampshire, because he didn`t apparently have enough waffles at diners with people in New Hampshire.

I honestly thought for a while, this could be the dumbest strategy I`ve ever seen, with him just laying low. But now, as things are split up from state to state and there doesn`t seem to be anybody -- there`s not going to be a consensus by the time we get to Florida, this could end up being the smartest thing he`s ever done, just lay low until that one big day.

CELLUCCI: Of course, you know, all the pundits who told us that Barack Obama would win by 15 to 20 points in New Hampshire yesterday and go on to win the Democratic nomination, they`re the same ones who have been criticizing the strategy of Mayor Giuliani.

I mean, we have a fundamental change here. The calendar is upside down. It`s a national primary on February 5.

BECK: Got to run. Thank you very much.

CELLUCCI: OK, but I...

BECK: Best of luck.

Back in a minute with "The Real Story."

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECK: America, I`m sorry to say that things continue to move forward. Two teenage daughters of a Muslim family in Texas have been murdered. The lead suspect is dad.

The question being asked now by at least one family member is, was this an honor killing? We have all the details coming up.

But first, welcome to the "Real Story."

I have said if you really want to know what people think, forget about what they say in public, forget about what they say in the polls. Watch where they put their money.

Well, unfortunately, right now people are putting their money in gold. It hit another new high of $880 an ounce yesterday. And since gold is viewed as the safe haven hedge against doomsday, that can only mean one thing -- a lot of people, a lot of big investors believe that`s exactly where this planet is headed.

But if that doesn`t convince you that we`re headed for real trouble, then maybe this will. Countrywide Financial, which is the largest mortgage lender in the United States of America, yesterday suffered its worst stock loss since Black Monday 1987 after a rumor surfaced that they were headed for bankruptcy. That, of course, is still unconfirmed. And while the company denies it, I`m guessing that Bank of America, the second largest bank in the country, is just a little worried.

That`s because they invested $2 billion in Countrywide just last August. So if Countrywide goes under, the bank of opportunity will take it on the chin as well.

Who knows? Maybe. Just maybe if they spent a little less time catering to illegal immigrants and a little more time researching their investments, maybe this wouldn`t have happened. I`m just saying.

While Countrywide collapsing would be a huge sign that this crisis is nowhere near finished, the indicator that everybody is really watching is consumer spending, which now accounts for over 70 percent of our economy. So far, even in the midst of all the other turmoil, that spending has stayed remarkably strong, which to me has been fishy. I haven`t understood it.

After all, if voters really think that the economy is the number one issue right now, then why are they spending all this money? Well, if you don`t want somebody doing digging, then you should probably turn the channel. Because we did digging.

The "Real Story" is consumers are not spending, they are charging. And there is a difference.

Since home equity isn`t available anymore, they`ve gone back to, where else, credit cards. U.S. credit card debt rose almost $9 billion in November alone. To a total that is just shy of $1 trillion in credit card debt. And now, just like with the mortgages, people are having trouble paying those credit card bills.

A recent study shows that late credit card balances are up 26 percent and defaults, which is when lenders basically write off the debt, are up 18 percent. The truth is that now Americans are, unfortunately, following their government`s example by taking on debts they just cannot afford to take on or pay.

But there`s a dirty little secret that everybody always seems to forget. Someone always pays. And soon, when those bills come rolling in, everyone will quickly understand exactly what that means.

Want to buy some gold?

Gary Herman is the president of Consolidated Credit Counseling Services.

Gary, where am I wrong here? Credit card debt is frighteningly high.

GARY HERMAN, PRESIDENT, CONSOLIDATING CREDIT COUNSELING SERVICE: I find you to be completely correct, Glenn.

BECK: See, I like this guy.

Conway (ph), book him again. This guy`s a genius.

The credit card debt that is rising so rapidly in November, the people who really put it on, it`s the worst of the worst credit as well, right?

HERMAN: Yes. I agree. Seeing a new type of consumer finding themselves in trouble with credit card debt, and the people who were in trouble before are finding it completely impossible to make their payments.

BECK: OK. So what we`re doing is we are giving credit and people are taking that credit who shouldn`t have that credit in the first place. What is the -- what`s the straw that`s going to break the camel`s back here?

We`ve got people who are in houses that they can`t afford, with credit card debt that they can`t afford. We`ve got the banks and American Express and Citicorp and everybody else all leveraged beyond any kind of reason on this. What is it that`s going to make this whole thing unravel?

HERMAN: Well, for individual consumers, the straw that breaks the back is different for each one, but it`s typically one event that they weren`t planning on. Whether it`s their mortgage adjusting so their mortgage payment`s $200 more, or the price of gas went up and they weren`t accounting for how much they had to pay to commute back and forth to work. And when consumers reach the limit on their credit cards, they can`t borrow in their house anymore because of the credit crunch. When they stop spending, that`s when things will really get bad.

BECK: So Gary, it amazes me that people don`t see this coming. It amazes me.

You`ve got gas prices going up. We`re in a war. You can`t afford health insurance.

I mean, all of these things are sitting out here and nobody is paying attention. Is it -- are we intentionally just sticking our heads in the sand? Or is there a chance that guys like you and me are just completely wrong?

HERMAN: No. I thing that nobody`s talking about it because the solution to the consumer debt problem is to stop spending. And if people stop spending, the concern is that you could wind up in a recession. So the cure may wind up being worse than the disease.

BECK: We`ll, I mean, but you`re going to have to do it at one point or another. I mean, I had a guy call me on the radio program today and he said, "Glenn, you`re killing me. I`m in business. Would you stop telling people to stop buying stuff?"

And I said, OK, look, I`ll tell you what to buy. You go out and you buy a coat, you buy shoes, for what your kids are going to need two years down the road. Because if this continues, the dollar is going to continue to fall. Everything`s going to collapse.

You know, at least buy something that you`re going to need, you know you`re going to need. Not another plasma television.

HERMAN: Right.

BECK: Wrong?

HERMAN: No, correct.

BECK: This guy. America, you listen to this guy.

This guy over here, he`s a genius. I`m just saying.

Thanks a lot, Gary. I appreciate it.

HERMAN: Thanks, Glenn.

BECK: Now, while it might seem impossible that America could ever be on the verge of economic collapse without realizing it, the "Real Story" is it`s happened before. In 1928, to be exact.

In fact, 1928 and 2008 seem to have an awful lot in common, at least in my book. Back then we had the Roaring `20s, but people complained that they were only roaring for the rich.

Well, now, of course, we`ve had the sixth year of major economic expansion. Billions of new wealth created, yet people still think it`s only the rich getting richer.

2008, also the first time since 1928 that there is no incumbent president or vice president that`s running for office. Back then we elected Herbert Hoover over Alfred Smith, who lost after he was vilified and attacked for being the first Roman Catholic to run for president. People thought his allegiance would be to Rome and the pope and not to the Constitution and country.

Sound a little like what`s happening to Mitt Romney this year?

And finally, you probably heard the Republican slogan from 1928, "A chicken in every pot." But what you haven`t heard is the rest of that slogan. That`s only half of it.

The second half of that slogan is, "... and a car in every garage." The car in 1928 was quickly morphing from a privilege into a right, just like health care and college education and anything else Hillary Clinton and the rest of them can dream up today.

I guess we can only hope that Mark Twain was wrong when he said history doesn`t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Because this rhyme ends in a second Great Depression, and perhaps even worse, another New Deal. Oh, wouldn`t the new progressives just love that?

Amity Shlaes is a syndicated columnist for Bloomberg and the author of "The Forgotten Man," I believe last year`s most important book. And that is over my book as well.

Welcome to the program, Amity.

AMITY SHLAES, AUTHOR, "THE FORGOTTEN MAN": Thank you.

BECK: OK. Biggest connection between 1928 and today, are you seeing shades of 1928?

SHLAES: The biggest connection is the complacency, this feeling that we`re taking for granted the growth. You know, we haven`t had a serious downturn since the early `80s, which means people under 50 have never had a serious downturn. And that was also the sentiment in the `20s.

It can go on forever.

BECK: OK. What is amazing to me is nobody`s really telling the American people the truth on the economy today. We`re in deep, deep trouble.

Was this the case back in the late 1920s? And were the politicians saying the same kinds of things that our progressive politicians like Hillary Clinton are saying now, just promising the sky, and some people are going, wait a minute, we can`t afford that?

SHLAES: The `20s were a monetary problem. And it`s slightly different today, but the politicians then were promising quite a lot.

Both parties -- Hoover was more of a progressive than the standard books allow. And that is similar to what the politicians are promising now. Even, apparently, the Bush administration today.

BECK: You know, I`m amazed. As I was looking at 1928, I mean, you just come of the Coolidge years where radio had been invented and everybody was talking about technology back then.

Here we are sitting with the YouTube debates. I mean, the echoes are just phenomenal.

But you and I disagree. I believe there`s a chance that the Great Depression, the real Great Depression, is coming our way. You believe that at least the 1970s are coming our way.

SHLAES: Well, it could be, yes, like the `70s. You get a disrespect for inflation that leads to stagflation, that rotten combo of unemployment and inflation. You can sense the possibility of that now. And you see in none of the candidates things on offer that would repair the longer-term structural deficits.

BECK: But your book points out that the reason why the rest of the world recovered from the depression was because government got involved to spook the markets and everything else. Does it at all make you sweat when you start to see some of -- especially people like Hillary Clinton or, God forbid, John Edwards, some of the things that they`re suggesting if we go down this road? They are suggesting a New Deal kind of scenario which your book suggests is the real cause or the lengthening of the Great Depression.

SHLAES: The New Deal did indeed lengthen the depression. What`s a problem today is this idea that we can solve our ills by working on the social contract, the New Deal social contract, making a new New Deal, and not looking outside, internationally.

We can`t afford a New Deal. We are a global country now. We can`t afford to rehearse our emotions with FDR. We have to work on being relatively competitive, and you don`t see the candidates talking enough about that, especially not the Democrats.

BECK: I only have 30 seconds. Al Smith, would it have been different if Al Smith would have been elected?

SHLAES: Oh, Al Smith`s a great man. He said, "I`ll take of my coat and vest and fight any man who makes class warfare." He was a Democratic Catholic candidate, a great man who did lose in part because he was Catholic, yes.

BECK: OK. Amity, thank you very much. And we`ll talk to you probably on the radio here in the coming days.

If you have not read her book -- Rudy Giuliani and I were talking about it a month ago. It is so important that everybody in America reads it. It is "The Forgotten Man."

That`s the "Real Story" tonight.

And coming up, a double murder in Texas. Two teenage daughters, the only suspect, their killer, possibly the father. There is more to this story that you need to hear, and I have one brave woman who is going to tell it to you next.

Don`t miss.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECK: I want to take you back about a week ago. It was New Year`s Day. There were two sisters that were shot in the back of a cab in Texas. The sole suspect is the driver, who happens to be their father. But if that alone doesn`t make you pray for the future of mankind, then consider this -- one of the theories about the motive for the murder is that it was a Muslim honor killing here in the United States.

The father, who is wanted on capital murder charges and still on the loose, is a devout Muslim from Egypt who allegedly had become upset that his daughters had become so westernized. But could that anger really have boiled over into a brutal honor killing in the name of religion here in America?

Tanya Eiserer, she is a staff writer with "The Dallas Morning News," and she has been covering this story.

Let me just get the facts from you here, Tanya.

First of all, take me back to Christmas. What happened?

TANYA EISERER, "DALLAS MORNING NEWS": Right around Christmastime, Mr. Said found out that his two daughters were dating American boys, and he -- according to friends and family, he was extremely upset by this and angry. And friends and family had said that he had threatened to kill them.

Around that time, the mother, actually on Christmas Day, fled with the two girls and the two boyfriends, and they went to Kansas and they stayed in Kansas just a few hours. And then they went to Tulsa, where they rented an apartment actually in another name.

BECK: OK. So why did they -- they left because they were afraid of him?

EISERER: Yes. That is what friends and family have said, including, also, absolutely that the girls were scared to death that their father would kill them.

BECK: Tell me about mom. Is she a devout Muslim?

EISERER: No. As far as we know, mother`s not a Muslim. And I don`t...

BECK: OK So -- I mean, I know this isn`t your theory, but I`m going to go to somebody here who is a relative who is living in danger right now, won`t even allow her face to be shown. But before I go down that road, how does a devout Muslim marry a non-Muslim and then kill the children because they`re not Muslim enough? That doesn`t make sense to me.

EISERER: Right. Well, my understanding is that Patricia and Mr. Said had met when she was about 14 or 15, that they married, and then she had the children in pretty quick succession. My impression is that her family over the years didn`t have is a lot of contact with the family.

BECK: OK. Any idea where the father is? Any clue?

EISERER: No. Not to my knowledge. The authorities aren`t sure if he`s still in the area, if he`s fled and he`s still in the country even.

BECK: OK. Thank you very much.

Now I`m going to go to a woman that we`re just going to call "Katie" and bring her up on the screen here. She doesn`t want her face to be shown. She wants us to conceal her identity. She fears for her safety.

Katie, first of all, thank you for being brave enough to be on the program.

Let me ask you, why are we blacking out your face? What are you afraid of exactly?

KATIE: Well, Mr. Beck, to be honest with you, I am totally convinced that this was an honor killing, and I want these girls to be honored not that way.

BECK: You are the great aunt of the girls. Why do you say that this was an honor killing?

KATIE: Well, because when I would hear from a family member, Patricia Said`s mother, she would tell me quite often that she feared that, you know, one day he might kill them. And...

BECK: Was she -- can you tell me a little bit -- was she abused by him?

KATIE: Who?

BECK: Your -- the mom.

KATIE: You know, they kept me out of the loop because the girls were being physically abused. And I was told about that, and...

BECK: Katie, tell me -- let`s slow down here. Tell me how they were -- were they being beaten or sexually assaulted, is your charge?

KATIE: You know, I really don`t -- they`ve really kept me out of the loop. I just know that, yes, what I can say truthfully is that, yes, they were beaten by a fist that I had heard about. Amina (ph) was, for taking a phone call.

BECK: OK. You know what? We`re going to take a break here in just a second and we`re going to come back. I want to get the rest of this story.

I want to find out from you why -- why you were kept out of the loop.

We`ll be back.

Her name is Katie. She`s a little emotional.

This is her family that she`s talking about. And she is speaking out and doesn`t want her face put on television because she is afraid that this was an honor killing here in America.

Are we there, America? More in just a second.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECK: We`re back with a woman we`re just going to identify as "Katie". She is talking to us from Texas. We have blacked out her face at her request.

She is -- Katie, I don`t even know. Have we said how you`re related or how you know these children? I don`t believe we have, and we don`t need to get into that. But you have been kept away from the family.

Tell me why you were kept away from the family, because that`s important. What do you know?

KATIE: After the children spoke to my sister, and then they spoke to someone else about they were afraid of their dad and such. And they were young children. And because their grandmother tried to get help and get the children away from them, then ...

BECK: How many years ago was this?

KATIE: Let`s see. I think it was like around `98?

BECK: OK. So when these two girls now show up dead, you -- and dad`s missing -- you immediately say dad did it. But not only did dad did it, dad did it in a Muslim ritual because they were -- they were dating westernized boys?

KATIE: Yes. And they were -- they were, you know, dressing American. They chose to -- they really were choosing to be just teens like any child.

GIULIANI: Do you have news from the family that is recent that shows that these girls knew that they were afraid of their dad and dad was very upset?

KATIE: Yes. Kathleen Wong (ph) said that Sarah -- she was Sarah`s best friend. They were like sisters. She even called her "sister" at the funeral.

And she said, you know, that Sarah was so afraid of her dad that even if the teacher just made a joke about, well, maybe I should tell, you know, your parents...

BECK: Right.

KATIE: ... she said Sarah would just start shaking and start -- you know, telling the teacher...

BECK: Katie, I`ve got to go. We will have more on this tonight, on tomorrow`s broadcast as well.

Katie, thank you.

Good night, America.

END