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Glenn Beck

Does Mitt Romney Still Have a Chance?; Can John McCain Unify GOP?; Terror Still a Key Issue

Aired February 04, 2008 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MICHAEL SMERCONISH, HOST (voice-over): Tonight, from the Super Bowl to Super Tuesday, now it`s the politicians making that final drive for victory. One more night and one last chance. The favorites and the underdogs go toe to toe.

Plus, they say Mitt Romney`s campaign is dead in the water, but does he have what it takes to pull an upset over McCain?

And the latest in the Natalee Holloway case: a shocking conversation caught on tape.

All this and more tonight.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SMERCONISH: Hello, America. I`m Michael Smerconish from Philly, sitting in for Glenn Beck, who returns tomorrow night with three hours of live Super Tuesday coverage. You don`t want to miss that.

Tonight is actually the perfect time for me to be here, because I`m a political junkie. I get as excited about the Super Tuesday votes as most guys do about Super Bowl Sunday. Speaking of which, the Giants. They showed the nation yesterday that miracles do happen; favorites don`t always win. My next guest thinks that bodes well for Mitt Romney.

David Sparks, he`s an assistant to the dean at the McCormick School at U. Mass in Boston and a former senior staff member for Bush senior`s presidential campaigns.

David, I read what you wrote in the "Boston Globe." Are you telling me that the fat lady has yet to sing for Mitt Romney?

DAVID SPARKS, ASSISTANT TO THE DEAN, MCCORMICK SCHOOL, UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS: I think, just to continue your analogy, when the Super Bowl happens -- you`re talking to a Patriots fan here -- the season`s over. When Super Tuesday happens this year, it`s only half done.

And while the primary process is front-loaded, there are five weeks leading up to Super Tuesday. Only half the delegates are chosen by that point. And at that point there`s a 16-week process. And for us political junkies, the other half of the delegates get squeezed out at a rate of only about 62 a week.

SMERCONISH: Well, I hope you`re -- I hope you`re right. I mean, I hope you`re right, not so much as an endorsement of Romney, which it isn`t, but simply because I haven`t had my fill yet.

But you`ve got to convince me. What about the calendar suggests that this is going to go on for a while on the Republican side?

SPARKS: Well, I -- let me -- just to reiterate the points that I made in my column. And I have to say, to continue the analogy, I would say it`s a long shot for Mitt Romney, you know, and -- but if you gave me Mitt Romney and 12 points like the Giants had yesterday, I think, you know, I might take that vote -- that bet.

SMERCONISH: You think Mitt would cover?

SPARKS: Well, you know, I think so. I mean, I think that there`s enough of the -- of the -- to consider about the field and about the aspect of the field to -- as the headline writer in the "Globe" put it, the fat lady hasn`t sung.

I think that, No. 1, and I helped manage a campaign for Bush Senior against Reagan, and it was our desire always in the primary to become the one-on-one candidate against Reagan, but our problem was when we did, we were to the left of him.

The problem in competing in a Republican primary contest, the problem that McCain has is that -- is that Romney, as he becomes the preeminent challenger is to the right of him, with a number of Republican contests coming up.

SMERCONISH: In California, Romney is a dead heat, if you believe the polling data. And who the heck knows. But he`s got to win California. I mean, you`d agree with me that, if Romney cannot carry California tomorrow night, then it`s over for him?

SPARKS: Well, not really. I mean, California is winner-take-all by congressional district. And there are packets of economic conservatives and pockets of Mormons throughout California.

And as I understand it, Governor Romney is spending money in California in selected congressional districts. So it will truly be -- there is a sum of delegates apportioned in California to the winner of the statewide vote, but of the 53 delegates, I think about 40 of them are proportioned -- proportioned by congressional district -- so...

SMERCONISH: I`m shy on time. Give me one geographic locale, whether it`s a congressional district or a state, that I want to focus on tomorrow night if I want to see what kind of an evening Mitt Romney is having.

SPARKS: Well, let me give you one that happened on Saturday in Maine. And it`s a great lab test. One of McCain`s problems across the country is that he`s pilloried by conservative talk show hosts and other conservative pundits, and the point that they make is that, in pure Republican contests, among pure Republican voters...

SMERCONISH: You`re saying maybe. I`m real shy on time. The bottom line: Maine? You`re telling me that the vote is just -- in Maine is the one that...

SPARKS: Fifty-one percent for Romney; 21 -- 21, 22 percent for McCain.

SMERCONISH: All right, David. Many thanks, my friend. I appreciate your being here.

While Mitt may have plenty of money and some would argue hair gel, one thing that he`s low on is celebrity endorsements. Chuck Norris likes Huckabee. Oprah stumps for Obama. Tom Selleck is for McCain, but do those types of endorsements help the candidates, or can they actually work against them?

Scott Rasmussen knows. He`s the president of the Rasmussen Report.

Hey, Scott, this morning`s "New York Times," front page, I don`t know if you saw it, but it reminded me of the Beatles album cover for "Sergeant Pepper`s Lonely Hearts Club Band." The only thing we`re were missing the Fab Four. And they had photographs of all these celebrities, everyone from, you know, Howard Stern up there in the corner to John Kerry. Does any of this matter?

SCOTT RASMUSSEN, RASMUSSEN REPORTS: Most of it doesn`t. Most of the endorsement`s value goes to the person making the endorsement. Maybe a little bit of publicity, and maybe they can lay in later.

But every now and then, depending on the circumstances, they can have a huge impact. Barack Obama was helped by Oprah Winfrey earlier this year, not because people change their mind, because of Oprah. Because she generated excitement and enthusiasm. She brought people out to hear Barack Obama, and then he closed the sale.

More recently, Barack Obama has benefited because of some high-profile endorsements from the Kennedy clan. And again, it`s because of the nature of those endorsements and the fact that Barack Obama is still an untested person, unknown to most people that they carry a little bit of weight.

SMERCONISH: Do you think newspapers are more worthwhile than celebrity endorsements? Would I rather have the "New York Post" endorsement than the Howard Stern embrace?

RASMUSSEN: Well, if you give those choices, I don`t know what the answer is. I do know that we just did some polling over the weekend. Six percent of Americans say if a "New York Times" endorsed a candidate they`d be more likely to vote for them. About 8 or 9 percent said the same for the "Wall Street Journal." More people say they`re likely to vote against somebody endorsed by their local paper than vote for them because there`s a little bit of distrust.

And again, think of it the way you meet a person in a different environment. If you see -- if you meet someone, a new person, and they seem interesting and attractive to you, if a friend who knows them better gives you a good endorsement, you feel better about them.

SMERCONISH: Yes.

RASMUSSEN: On the other head...

SMERCONISH: Like a blind date.

RASMUSSEN: That`s right. If you`ve known somebody a long time, endorsements or comments from friends don`t have the same impact.

SMERCONISH: What are -- what endorsement that`s been awarded so far would you say, "Now, there`s an endorsement that mattered"? Any of them?

RASMUSSEN: I think the Kennedy endorsements, Caroline and Ted Kennedy, for Barack Obama mattered a lot.

SMERCONISH: How about Charlie Crist down there in Florida?

RASMUSSEN: Charlie Crist, that endorsement mattered a lot in the Republican side.

SMERCONISH: If Al Gore were to stand up and say something relative to Obama and Hillary, would that carry weight? No pun intended.

RASMUSSEN: If Al Gore were to endorse Barack Obama, that would have tremendous impact, especially if he did it in a very solid manner. On the other hand, if he were to go the other way and endorse Hillary Clinton, that would shock enough people that it would have an impact, too. They would say he must know something about Barack Obama we don`t know.

But you`re talking very unusual circumstances. Charlie Crist was huge in Florida because of the timing of it, because John McCain needed some help to change the story line. And Charlie Christ may end up being the most important endorsement of the Republican season.

SMERCONISH: All good -- all good fodder. There`s the list for McCain. Sylvester Stallone and -- and The Terminator and others.

Hey, Scott, many thanks for being here. We appreciate it.

RASMUSSEN: My pleasure.

SMERCONISH: Coming up, John McCain has some hefty endorsements, but the support, or lack of it, from his Senate colleagues may be much more important in the run up to election day.

And let`s not forget about the Democrats. Super Tuesday may be the end of the GOP race, but for Democrats, it appears, they`re just getting started. We`ll have a preview next.

Plus, new developments. When a suspect in the death of Natalee Holloway, shocking details that may close this case for good.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMERCONISH: Coming up, with no clear front-runner in the Democratic race, Super Tuesday looks like it won`t solve anything on that side of the aisle. So does this give the Republicans an edge in November? We`ll find out in just a bit.

But first, this morning I was reading the front age of the "Washington Post" instead of the sports page. I know, I can`t help it, I`m a junkie. There`s a great article about Republican front-runner John McCain. You`d think, with him being out front for the GOP, that his colleagues in the Senate would be thrilled for him. Right? Wrong.

With a long history of a short temper, John McCain hasn`t always played well with others, and many wonder if his maverick sensibility is going to hamper his ability to unite and lead the Republican Party.

Joining me with their thoughts, Chris Wilson, a Republican strategist and CEO of Wilson Research Strategies; Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform; and Josh Green, senior editor at "The Atlantic."

Hey, Josh, I want to show you and everybody else something from that story in the "Post" this morning. It`s a quote from Senator Thad Cochran, a Republican from Mississippi. Relative to McCain, he said, "The thought of his being president sends a sold chill down my spine. He`s erratic. He`s hot-headed. He loses his temper, and he worries me."

Pretty frightening words from a colleague.

JOSH GREEN, SENIOR EDITOR, "THE ATLANTIC": I think it is in a certain sense, but it`s not in a certain sense, too. Because you know, the stories about John McCain`s temper have been around Washington for an awful long time.

But I don`t think it`s an especially important story as far as the primaries tomorrow or even as far as the elections in November, because I don`t know any voters that say to themselves, "Gosh, I wish senators were nicer to each other." More often than not, I think voters are more eager to hear senators get chewed out the way that Thad Cochran apparently has been chewed out by John McCain on a couple of occasions.

SMERCONISH: I guess, Chris, that argument is that maybe it actually bodes well for them. Because you don`t want somebody -- you know, in this changed environment, you don`t want somebody going down there to get along and go along. You want somebody to come out and throw a smart bomb into the Senate.

CHRIS WILSON, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Michael, that`s exactly right. At the end of the day, you also look at the end of the story where it pointed out that John McCain has been endorsed by more members of the Senate than anybody else running for president, which is a pretty remarkable thing when you consider both Obama and Clinton are in the Senate right now.

So I think it also has some positive reflections on who he is, his character and the way -- his management style.

SMERCONISH: Hey, Grover, question for you. There`s been a great deal of attention about conservatives and how, ultimately, the conservatives are going to sit with McCain and vice-versa. Your name often bandied about. Are you cool with McCain these days?

GROVER NORQUIST, PRESIDENT, AMERICANS FOR TAX REFORM: Look, if McCain or Romney wins on Super Tuesday, one of those two gentlemen goes up against probably Hillary Clinton or Obama.

And at the end of the day, there are several trillions difference between any Republican and any Democrat on the tax issue alone. So conservatives will get behind Romney or McCain.

SMERCONISH: One of the -- the other polls that came out is a "USA Today"/Gallup survey that was written about in "USA Today" on the front page. It said that, among conservatives, John McCain is leading Mitt Romney 38 percent to 28 percent in a national survey.

Maybe the issue that that raises is one of whether the so-called conservative leadership really speaks for the rank and file. Chris, what`s your thought on that?

WILSON: Well, I think what it says is that conservatives, just like any other portion of the Republican Party, don`t necessarily have a leader that speaks to them. We are independent thinking people, and whereas we may appreciate direction and we may appreciate people like Grover, they can take issues and spell them out for us.

But conservatives are still going to end up where they -- with the candidate they think is best able and best ready to lead the country. And that`s what`s happening with conservatives and John McCain at this point.

SMERCONISH: Grover, as a conservative leader, would you like Huckabee to get out of this race so it becomes a two-man contest between John McCain and Mitt Romney, or do you like having him in?

NORQUIST: Well, obviously, Huckabee has the right to run. Those people who point out that McCain is doing better in 2008 than he did in 2000, the reason for that is that you have Ron Paul taking a certain percentage of the vote, Huckabee taking a certain percentage of vote and Romney taking a certain percentage of the vote. So McCain is doing as well or less well in many states than he did against one person, Bush.

And it`s been bounced back and forth. A lot of people thought Giuliani was going to be a major factor in this race.

But to your point at the end of the day, conservatives, Reagan Republicans, will get behind the person who isn`t Hillary Clinton.

SMERCONISH: Josh, tomorrow night is potentially an awfully confusing night. If I were on the Barcalounger or the sofa next to you tomorrow night and Glenn puts the results up from a particular state, what are you looking at as a sign of the way things are going relative to the Republican race?

GREEN: Well, I think the assumption now is that McCain is going to do very, very well tomorrow night. So one state I would look at is California, which I believe has the most delegates at stake tomorrow night. You know, depending on the polls you look at, Mitt Romney is anywhere from tied to very close to McCain, which I don`t think was true even a week ago.

Romney is in California today, trying to do some last-minute campaigning. If, as we`re sitting there, we see the results come in, Mitt Romney is leading by any kind of a significant number in California, then I think that could be a very, very big deal.

SMERCONISH: Grover, you agree? Do you think California, in and of itself, is enough to propel the Romney candidacy further?

NORQUIST: If Romney were to win in California, yes, absolutely. This is going to be an interesting fight. It could go either way. But as you point out, McCain is leading at present.

SMERCONISH: You know, I`m a Pennsylvanian, and there was a move afoot in my state that I`m glad did not take hold, to move our primary date forward along with everybody else towards Super Tuesday. Chris Wilson, one of the things that occurs to me is that a state like Pennsylvania or perhaps Ohio, which will vote more soon than Pennsylvania, could play king maker.

WILSON: It absolutely can. In fact, if you look at Pennsylvania, of course, takes place in April. And it could be a situation where that is when the Democratic nomination decide it. I think it`s likely the Republicans are decided before that. But you`re right. Pennsylvania is in a unique situation this year and could be the one that makes the ultimate decision on the Democrat side.

SMERCONISH: Hey, Grover, I have framed this issue on my radio program in Philly as an issue, potentially, thinking of Romney and McCain, that pits the ideologues versus the pragmatists for the future direction of the party. Is that too simplistic of an analysis as far as you`re concerned?

NORQUIST: Well, it is. There`s a different series of issues that people focus on. Romney led early on with a stronger anti-tax message, but in the last couple of months, McCain has came through with a very strong anti-tax message. Yesterday, he twice on television committed to veto any bill that raises taxes, which is what we`ve been looking for him to do over the last year. He`s now, you know, doing a fairly good job being out there on the anti-tax front.

SMERCONISH: Josh Green, the Achilles heel, it would seem to me, for the McCain candidacy among conservatives, illegal immigration, the porous borders and the fact that the House and Senate have still done relatively nothing to seal that issue.

GREEN: Yes. I mean, two things have helped McCain kind of come back from the dead in this primary. No. 1 is that Iraq seems to have stabilized, and the surge has had some effects.

No. 2, the contentious debate over illegal immigration which took place most of the summer is now kind of falling into the background, and it doesn`t seem to be driving the debate quite as much as it did even a month or two ago.

You see that, I think, in the falloff of support for Mitt Romney and the increase in support for John McCain. Because there is a pretty clear difference between those two candidates on that issue.

SMERCONISH: All right. Gents, take 10 seconds each. Give me the sound byte that`s going to sum up tomorrow night. Grover, you go first, and then Chris, and then Josh.

NORQUIST: Oh, gee. Depends on what happens. McCain or Romney will move forward, and the party will unite around them.

WILSON: I would agree that the party unites around whoever it is. I think, though, I would disagree with Josh a little bit about illegal immigration. I think that`s one of the reasons why Romney is catching McCain in California. If Romney wins California, I think the sound byte is immigration pushes the campaign into the person who campaigns on the Republican side into another week.

GREEN: It certainly could. You know, I`ll play it safe and my sound bite will be it looks very likely that McCain to face Obama and Clinton in -- a Democratic victor to be determined in a week or a month or two months. Who knows?

SMERCONISH: Gentlemen, many thanks. Appreciate you being here.

Coming up, an al Qaeda operative who was allegedly killed, still alive and has resurrected al Qaeda`s hopes to obtain WMDs. So what do our presidential candidates plan to do about that? We`ll find out in just a bit.

And a suspect in the Natalee Holloway case caught on tape talking about crime, but does this mean the case will be closed? We`ll take a closer look at the new evidence. Stick around.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMERCONISH: Hey, for better or worse, Americans have a great talent for distracting themselves. Today`s headlines are all about the presidential election, but that doesn`t mean that all the old problems have disappeared.

Remember, it wasn`t all that long ago when a small terrorist network known as al Qaeda orchestrated the mass murder of 3,000 innocent Americans. According to the "L.A. Times," Al Qaeda still as dangerous as ever, and they`re busy trying to get their hands on chemical, biological and nuclear weapons to use against the United States. So why, then, has terror become such a non-issue on the campaign trail?

Stuart Rothenberg is the editor of the "Rothenberg Political Report." Stu, on my radio show in Philly, I am continually raising the issue of what happened to the hunt for bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri? Nobody seems to talk about that out on the campaign trail. Why not?

STUART ROTHENBERG, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Well, Michael, when the economy is viewed as in trouble, when it`s a primary concern, I think the candidates talk about it; the voters care about it. It`s the No. 1 issue.

SMERCONISH: You think that we`re fatigued by the notion of September 11? Too many times we`ve seen the images. Too often, we`ve heard the terror threat level being raised and so forth. And we just don`t have the stomach for it.

ROTHENBERG: Well, I think there is certainly some of that. You know, reporters rotate in and out of stories. They have been stuck on that story for years now, and they want something different.

But it`s more than that. Look, you have the economic numbers. You have unemployment. You have talk about a recession. Everybody is concerned about the overall health of the economy. So it`s not surprising that that`s showing up in the polls and that...

SMERCONISH: Holy smokes. That makes us sound so selfish, like we`re more concerned about what we`re paying per gallon than eliminating the thugs who killed 3,000 Americans. Please tell me that`s not the case.

ROTHENBERG: That is the case, Michael. With most voters, it`s about can I pay my mortgage? Can I put food on the table? Do I have enough money to put gas in the car? And while obviously the war against terror, the bad guys are still a big deal, it hangs over our heard heads, to many people, it`s the day-to-day concerns that they focus on.

SMERCONISH: And I don`t say this with disrespect intended toward Barack Obama, but I guess, you know, if the alternatives are to hear someone paint a gloomy picture about how we`re spending through the nose, $10 billion, to outsource the hunt for bin Laden to Musharraf and he`s not doing squat, or instead, hear Obama go out and talk with, you know, rose- colored glass looking forward, we`d rather sit back and hear a good speech.

ROTHENBERG: I think that`s true for the moment, at least. But look, Senator McCain continues to focus on the war against terror. He has not switched over to the economy. It`s his pet issue.

I think the other candidates have the size that`s easier to talk about the economy than to focus on a problem that is thousands of miles away, even though it may be nearer than we know.

SMERCONISH: And maybe it`s because, thank God, since September 11 there has been no attack on our shores.

ROTHENBERG: That`s true. I think people, to some extent, have taken it for granted. And we`ll se whether that holds or the issue reemerges over the next few weeks and months.

SMERCONISH: Bottom line, it`s the economy -- you can say it to me -- stupid.

ROTHENBERG: Stupid. It is at the moment (ph). And we`ll see that can change. Events can change. The candidates can change it, as well.

SMERCONISH: All right. Appreciate, Stu, you being here. Thank you very much.

ROTHENBERG: Sure, thanks.

SMERCONISH: Coming up, Hillary and Barack go head to head tomorrow in 22 different states, but will that resolve anything? We`re going to find out next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMERCONISH: Hey, welcome back. I`m Michael Smerconish from Philly, sitting in for Glenn, who returns tomorrow night for three hours of live Super Tuesday coverage. You don`t want to miss that.

Coming up, a suspect in the Natalee Holloway case makes some startling statements, and they`re all caught on tape. We`ll have the details in just a bit.

But first, even though tomorrow is being billed as the Super Bowl of politics, the reality is that we`ll likely not have any winners, especially in the Clinton/Obama race. And that`s because the Democrats, adhering to their prosperity for all mantra, award most delegates proportionately.

In other words, unlike the big, bad survival of the fittest Republicans who have more winner-take-all contests, the Democrats divide them up. Come in a close second in Connecticut, you might still walk away with 20 delegates.

Now, while that might seem fair, it`s also likely to result in all of us waking up on Wednesday morning to a Democratic race that`s tighter and more confusing than ever.

Julian Epstein is a Democratic strategist and founder of LMG. Chris Wilson is a Republican strategist and CEO of Wilson Research Strategies. Josh Green is a senior editor at "The Atlantic."

Julian, the "Big Mo," to quote Bush 41, certainly seems to be with Obama. Why?

JULIAN EPSTEIN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I think that`s correct. I think it`s mostly still coming off of South Carolina. And if you look at the national polls today, it shows certainly a tightening.

Also, Edwards leaving the race I think may have broken more towards Obama than Clinton thus far. But if you look at the state-by-state races, which is very, very important, Clinton is still ahead by a significant margin in all but three of the Super Tuesday states. She also has more super delegates.

So, I think she`s still in the lead. And it`s very, very difficult to measure the precise trajectory of Obama`s momentum, but he does have momentum, there`s no question about it.

SMERCONISH: Hey, Josh, you know, Americans are used to tuning in to Headline News and watching the coverage, and Glenn has special coverage here tomorrow night. But I think we ought to let folks know this is not one of those evenings where all of a sudden, California goes a particular color, because it`s possible that someone could win the popular vote in, say, California on the Democratic side of the aisle, and walk away with less delegates than their opponent.

So, if I`m at home tomorrow night, how do I really keep track?

JOSH GREEN, "THE ATLANTIC": You know, I`m not sure. You get a degree in mathematics, first of all. And you`ve got a couple running notebooks and a few experts on the phone.

I have no idea. I mean, I`m pretty sure the headline coming out of tomorrow night will be, you know, "Democratic Race Turns to February 12th and Turns to Ohio and Texas," for all the reasons we talked about. It doesn`t -- it doesn`t look like right now that anything is going to be wrapped up by any means tomorrow.

I think the best you can hope for is that one candidates or the other seems to win a majority of the states and gain some kind of momentum going forward. But again, because of this complicated delegate allotment formula, I`m not sure anyone will know even until the next morning who really did come out ahead on Tuesday.

SMERCONISH: Hey, Chris Wilson, I`ve got a minority view relative to President Bill Clinton. I think the guy is a tremendous asset out on the stump, and I also believe that in New Hampshire he was of great value to Hillary when he called the Obama candidacy a "fairy tale."

And I would suggest to you is, take a look at what`s going on now. Obama has got the momentum at a time when Clinton has had, you know, manners put on him. Meaning Bill Clinton.

Should the big dog be let back out in the pen?

CHRIS WILSON, GOP STRATEGIST: Wow, Michael, you do have a minority view there. And I hesitate to disagree, since it is your show, but at the same time, I would say I think...

SMERCONISH: Only for a night. You can disagree. Glenn will be back tomorrow.

WILSON: I think some of the things that Clinton has done have been helpful. There`s no question about that.

I do think, however, that his comments specific to South Carolina and Jesse Jackson, trying to make that about race rather than about Obama`s strength, it did not place as well. And that`s why he has been sort of rolled back in by his wife`s campaign.

But in terms of letting him back out, you know, as a Republican, I`ve got to be honest. I`d love to see it. It`s fun to watch and it makes for good television.

But, is it helping her campaign? I`d say if I were advising the Hillary Clinton campaign, I would probably want to keep him a little bit closer to where he is right now than where he was about a week and a half, two weeks ago.

SMERCONISH: Julian, if you believe the numbers, there`s been erosion among females for Hillary to the benefit of Barack Obama. What would account for women abandoning Hillary in support of the Obama candidacy?

EPSTEIN: Well, I think she is still ahead with women. I think she has -- Obama has certainly picked up ground.

I think in large part because, look, he`s running a brilliant campaign. He`s running a very uplifting and spirited campaign. And I think he is appealing to everyone. He`s appealing to base voters and to Independents. So I think there`s -- you know, women are -- women who have traditionally been with Hillary, but they are swayable like anybody else.

Now, that said, I mean, I still want to emphasize here, while Obama has momentum, Hillary is still substantially ahead. If you look at some of the key states, states like New Jersey, for example, she`s still up by anywhere from 8 to 13 points, depending on what poll. So I think you just have to keep this in perspective.

It tends to be a lot of hype the day before these -- a day before these primaries, a lot of predictions based on who is gaining most recently, but you really have to stand back and look at things at kind of a larger perspective here. And if you do, I still think, as I say, Obama has got the momentum. Hillary is still significant ahead at this point.

SMERCONISH: John Green, the Latino vote would appear to be another key demographic, particularly in a state like California.

How do you see that going?

GREEN: I mean, the best lens in the Latino vote so far, as far as tangible results, has been Nevada, where Obama lost very badly to Hillary Clinton, despite having the endorsement of a very strong union. So, in that sense, things don`t look real good for Obama.

On the other hand, he did get the endorsement in the most important Latino newspaper in Los Angeles. His poll numbers seem to be a little bit better among Latinos. But if I were Obama, I think that would still be a concern for me.

SMERCONISH: Hey, we`ve talked about endorsements in the program tonight already with another special guest, Scott Rasmussen. I want to ask each of you, Chris Wilson and Julian Epstein and Josh Green, what is the most significant endorsement that has been made and obtained so far in the presidential race so far?

Julian, we`ll start with you.

EPSTEIN: Oprah, followed closely by Ted Kennedy.

SMERCONISH: Is that right? And the value of, say, Maria Shriver?

EPSTEIN: Marginal.

SMERCONISH: Josh Green, the most significant endorsement to date has been what?

GREEN: I would flip those. I`d say Ted Kennedy over Oprah just because Kennedy fans tend to be, I suspect, more enthusiastic primary voters.

SMERCONISH: Chris Wilson?

WILSON: I`m going to speak to the general election here and say Lieberman of McCain. I really think that`s going to allow McCain to bridge the gap in terms of his appeal for a general election candidacy.

SMERCONISH: If Gore should come out and endorse in the Democratic race, is the over in support of whomever he selects?

WILSON: I don`t think so. I think Al Gore is a respected figure on the Democratic side of the aisle, but I don`t think any endorsement is going to make that kind of a difference. It would be a heavy blow to Clinton, no question about it, but it`s -- you can`t count her out because of it.

SMERCONISH: Gentlemen, other thoughts on the Gore factor?

GREEN: I think Al Gore missed his window. If he had come out on Friday or Saturday and endorsed Barack Obama, it would have blotted out media coverage from now until Tuesday. It might have pushed Obama, you know, far enough that he really could have cleaned up on Super Tuesday. I think at this point, unless we come down to a very, very tight delegate race, I don`t see a Gore endorsement having a huge effect.

EPSTEIN: My only thought about endorsements are, that the effect that they have on voters are very secondary. A Gore endorsement would have a big effect on media coverage...

SMERCONISH: Yes. Well...

EPSTEIN: ... and much less effect on actual voters.

SMERCONISH: We pundits love that kind of stuff, don`t we?

EPSTEIN: Yes. So I don`t think it would matter that much.

SMERCONISH: Hey gents, thanks for being here. I really appreciate it.

And remember, Glenn is back tomorrow night at 7:00 Eastern for live Super Tuesday coverage.

Coming up, is the case of Natalee Holloway finally about to be solved? We`ll look at all the evidence next.

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SMERCONISH: It looks like there may be a break in the case surrounding the disappearance of Alabama teenager Natalee Holloway. You`ll remember that she disappeared while on vacation in Aruba back in 2005.

Well, yesterday, an investigative judge said that, "sufficient reason exists" to re-question prime suspect Joran van der Sloot. The announcement came after Dutch television aired a program in which van der Sloot told a so-called friend who was videotaping his conversation with hidden cameras intimate details of the last time he saw Holloway.

Here with more is Mickey Sherman, a criminal defense attorney, and Dan Conaway, a former prosecutor and criminal defense attorney.

Hey, Mickey, can we at least indict this guy for being a dirtbag?

MICKEY SHERMAN, CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY: Well, he`s certainly guilty of that. I mean, that`s the problem.

You know, the tenor of his conversations, the callousness, the just seeming arrogance that he has talking about Natalee Holloway, calling her a bad name, even dissing his father, as well as the Kalpoe brothers, I mean, he just kind of dumps on everybody. And he just seems to care nothing about anybody other than himself.

So, no question it`s an attack on his character. But is it enough to get him arrested again? I don`t know. As you said in the opening piece here, it`s enough that they`re going to look at it again. But does that mean they`re really going to arrest him again, much less convict him?

SMERCONISH: And he is now trying to, you know, disavow what he told this guy, that the whole thing was a charade. But does the story that he offered, that was videotaped, comport with the facts surrounding her disappearance? In other words, is it plausible the way he describes it in that Range Rover?

SHERMAN: Yes, it may very well be, if, in fact, they can confirm that that guy in the boat helped him get rid of the body. They`re going to find that guy, they`re going to confirm that he was available, that he had a boat and that it really happened. That may be enough.

One of the things that really amazes me is the quality of the tape. It`s not like one of these lousy surveillance tapes.

SMERCONISH: Yes.

SHERMAN: You`ve got three cameras. Three -- one on the driver, two on van der Sloot from different angles. So, there is no misunderstanding of what he`s saying, and, more importantly, the manner in which he says it, which is believable.

SMERCONISH: Dan Conaway, you`re an expert in matters pertaining to international law. You want to disabuse me of the notion -- and I, too, am a lawyer -- that it`s like a kangaroo court system they have got down there on the islands?

DAN CONAWAY, FMR. PROSECUTOR & CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY: I wouldn`t say kangaroo court. I would say a very different court from what we are used to certainly seeing in the United States.

You have to remember that Aruba operates on a system that is almost exactly like the Dutch system. And so, it`s a court of inquiry, it`s an inquisitional court where the judge more or less runs the investigation into the case and then gives the police broad discretionary powers with regards to what they investigate to how.

The reason why this may very well lead, in my opinion, to Mr. van der Sloot being rearrested and taken back into custody, at least for a brief period of time, and a minimum of two days, and possibly much longer than that, is because you`re allowed to do that under Dutch law. It`s not in a situation -- or an Aruba law, I should say -- it`s not a situation where you have to have absolute probable cause. You don`t have to have a situation where this statement is supported by corroborating evidence, something like Mickey was talking about with regards to someone seeing this other person assisting him dump the body or something like that.

SMERCONISH: Hey, Mickey, you would think that if his story in this tape is that, you know, he called a buddy that night and that he and the buddy then disposed of the body, presumably he did that from a cell phone. They`ve got the cell phone. They can take a look at the cell phone records and arguably, very easily figure out who would that friend have been.

SHERMAN: I would think so. I think he also talks about that it was maybe done from the Marriott hotel phone as well.

But, you know, the problem you have here, Michael, is that even if you believe everything he says -- and it`s kind of funny because his lawyers now, Joe Tacopina and the crew, they`re in the position of saying, don`t believe my client. He is lying about this. That`s kind of not where you want to be coming from, but that`s where they are.

The problem is that, what does it prove? At best, that he disposed of the body, not that he killed her.

There`s no admission that he killed her. He has this BS story that she died in some kind of a seizure.

And don`t forget, remember Bobby Durst out in Texas?

SMERCONISH: Yes.

SHERMAN: He had a fight with his neighbor, chopped up the body, threw him in the sea. They found him not guilty because they didn`t prove that he killed her -- he killed the guy.

SMERCONISH: Hey, Dan Conaway, again, thinking of the Dutch system, I mean, what would be wrong with filing a civil action against Joran van der Sloot, getting him under oath where he could not avail himself to a Fifth Amendment right? Or maybe he could. I don`t know their system. You apparently do.

Is that a way of breaking this thing free?

CONAWAY: Absolutely, it is. It`s one course that the judge and the investigators -- the investigator in this case should certainly think about taking. And I`ll tell you why.

If you bring a civil action, essentially Dutch criminal law and Aruba criminal law is based upon a civil inquiry, if you will, where you can get into these things. Now, you do have the right, just like in the United States, to not incriminate yourself, but he has clearly incriminated himself in this situation.

The statement can come in. With regards to how credible it is, how not credible it is, that`s ultimately up to the judge with regards to deciding how much he is going to take into account with regards to the statement.

But this statement I think is really, really damaging. You are in a Dutch system of law where you don`t have, especially with regards to the inquiry, the level of protection you have here in the United States as a criminal defendant.

There`s a good chance that he may end up getting re-detained. They can hold him up to 145 days under the Aruba system. They have got a lot to work with here, and I wouldn`t be surprised if they do it.

Like I always tell my clients, the quickest direction to the jail is through your own big mouth.

SMERCONISH: Hey, Mickey, where are we headed with this thing? I mean, the guy who set him up with the tape, apparently he meets him at, what, a blackjack table...

SHERMAN: Yes.

SMERCONISH: ... and they`re talking about smoking pot together and starting a business.

SHERMAN: Yes.

SMERCONISH: And so where do you see this headed?

SHERMAN: That seems to be the focal point of their relationship.

I don`t know. I think there`s going to be a lost pressure put on the prosecutor down there and the judge. Will they bring him in? The problem is they suffer from credibility.

They arrested two other guys at the beginning, or three other guys. Then they arrested the Kalpoe brothers and van der Sloot. Then they let them go. Then they arrested them again, then they let them go.

I think at some point the credibility strain is just going to be too much. That prosecutors are going to say, we`ve had enough. If we have a smoking gun, great. Bu this is kind of a lukewarm thing.

SMERCONISH: You know, I`ve got to tell you guys something. I remember having a conversation with Beth Twitty, Natalee Holloway`s mom, and discussing with her, why would -- maybe unfairly, but why would an American go down there to Aruba, when you have got a choice of a lot of islands, and play tourist? I mean, if they can`t get their act together and do a full court press and solve this case, me, I would go elsewhere.

I don`t know, is that unfair? Give me a quick sound bite from each of you.

SHERMAN: I think that`s been a driving force behind many of the prosecutions down there. I think it`s one of the reasons they rearrested him, is because it`s killing the tourist industry. I wouldn`t go to Aruba. Why would you go?

SMERCONISH: What about you, Dan?

CONAWAY: I agree with that. I think that if they don`t act on this, especially with regards to the callousness of the statement and the clear - - the clear statement of criminal intent, even if it`s simply dumping the body at sea, that is still a felony. And if they don`t investigate this, they look callous. The authorities look like they simply don`t care.

SMERCONISH: Yes.

CONAWAY: It does begin to look like the Keystone Cops, and that`s not going to help the tourist industry or anybody else.

SMERCONISH: Unbelievable. I`ve got one word for you two fellows -- Bermuda, baby.

Mickey, Dan, many thanks for being here. We appreciate it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A pleasure.

SMERCONISH: Hey, coming up, my thoughts on Rudy Giuliani`s failed run at the Republican nomination. That`s next.

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SMERCONISH: Hey, one week ago today I found myself on a tarmac in 80- degree weather down South, awaiting Rudy Giuliani`s arrival on the eve of the Florida primary. He arrived on a big plane, a 727. He needed all that space to accommodate the dozens of media folks who were traveling with him.

No doubt they were there to write the mayor`s presidential obituary. And why not? I think his defeat was preordained by the political press.

Giuliani was treated with hostility by the political media. He was cornered as the 9/11 candidate and he endured a concerted effort to trash the successes that he orchestrated in New York before September 11. That treatment, it proved fatal to his campaign. I will give you a case and point.

When he was still campaigning in Florida, "The Drudge Report" featured a news item from the "L.A. Times" that said, "L.A. Times: `Rudy Giuliani Hints at Dropping Out.`"

Well, that was before most Floridians had even gone to the polls. The political whispers, they become deafening with the news of Giuliani`s imminent withdrawal.

Perhaps the worst offender of what I have seen and monitored, "The New York Times." They unleashed a torrent of negative stories about everything from Bernard Kerik to Giuliani`s family. Some were founded, but some were not.

You know, there`s a conspiracy theory to consider. Some say that the press attitude toward Giuliani may be a case of reaping what you sow. Some will tell you that Giuliani was hostile to the media and, consequently, in the end he got what he deserved.

I don`t think it`s right.

What`s truly breathtaking to me is the double vision with which some view Giuliani`s tenure in New York City Hall.

Case and point. A December 30, 2001 "New York Times" editorial said that, "With a different mayor, the city would still have done well during the `90s, but without Mr. Giuliani, it might not have undergone the phenomenal turnaround that transformed a city that had been a byword for civic disorder into the emblem of urban renaissance."

And then "The New York Times" back then listed Giuliani`s advances in security, sanitation, citizen morale, tourism, even civility. Those comments were about the same man that "TIME" magazine deemed the 2001 "Person of the Year."

"TIME" stated then, "He will be remembered as the greatest mayor in the city`s history. Giuliani`s eloquence under fire has made him a global symbol of healing and defiance."

I guess those words applied only until Giuliani ran for president, because that`s when the vindictive media decided to play profit. And now the greatest mayor in New York`s history, America`s mayor, has dropped out of the race, written off before most of the country even had a chance to speak up.

It`s not right.

Glenn Beck returns tomorrow, live on Super Tuesday.

I`m Michael Smerconish.

From Philly, good night, America.

END