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Glenn Beck

Is Obama Stronger Than Hillary on Terrorism?; Congressman Explains Pennsylvania Politics; Defense Attorney Defends His Profession

Aired April 16, 2008 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MICHAEL SMERCONISH, HOST (voice-over): Tonight, Hillary and Barack go toe to toe in yet another debate. I`ll tell you who I think should win the nomination.

Also, an explosive legal battle brews between Rob Lowe and his nanny. We`ll have the latest details.

And a new poll suggests that Obama may be pulling away from Hillary. So how much longer can Hillary continue to fight? We`ll have some answers.

All this and more tonight.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SMERCONISH: Hi, everybody. I`m Michael Smerconish from Philadelphia, in for Glenn Beck this week.

In my weekly column in today`s "Philadelphia Daily News," I said Barack Obama is the better of the two Democratic candidates for president. I can`t get as in-depth here as I did in my full-page column. But here`s the short version: on the issues I say there`s little discernible difference between Obama and Hillary Clinton. From mandates on health care to exiting Iraq, each offers a similarly liberal agenda, one that will cause me some angst come the fall.

But right now, one candidate is more focused on a matter of grave importance to me, and that`s our government`s failure to avenge the deaths of innocent Americans by bringing Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri to justice. And I think that candidate is Barack Obama.

It`s appalling. At six and a half years removed from September 11, bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have not been held accountable for the killing of 3,000 innocent Americans. And it`s equally appalling that our presidential campaign thus far has failed to advance this discussion.

Barack Obama changed that in an August speech that he delivered. He said if we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and Musharraf won`t act, we will. Finally, a presidential candidate saying something about this particular foreign policy failure. And he was ridiculed for it.

I think every American can agree that our obligation to bring bin Laden to justice necessitates such thinking. While Hillary Clinton promises to answer the White House phone at 3 a.m., Barack Obama says he`ll threaten and disrupt the place that many suspect the world`s most despicable terrorists are still hiding.

Look, I`m still a Republican, and Pennsylvania is a closed primary. So I can`t pull a lever next Tuesday, but if I could, I`d vote for Barack Obama. Just don`t tell Glenn.

I`m joined now by Congressman Chaka Fattah. He`s a Democratic representative from Pennsylvania as well as an Obama supporter. And T.J. Rooney, the chairman of the Democratic Party of the entire state of Pennsylvania. He`s a Hillary Clinton supporter.

Hey, T.J., allow me to play for you a short piece of audio. This is what Barack Obama said to me on this issue. It`s what I wish I`d hear more from Hillary in a similar fashion. Roll it.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: That`s part of the reason that I`ve been a critic from the start of the war in Iraq. It`s not that I was opposed to war. It`s that I felt we had a war that we had not finished. And al Qaeda is stronger now than at any time since 2001. And we`ve got to do something about that, because those guys have a safe haven there, and they are still planning to do Americans harm. But if they don`t, we shouldn`t need permission to go after some of these folks that killed 3,000 Americans.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: I agree with him. And when he said it, you know, he was ridiculed from both the Clinton quarters and from John McCain. What`s your thought?

T.J. ROONEY, CHAIRMAN OF DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN PENNSYLVANIA: You know, I certainly know that Senator Clinton is as committed to bringing bin Laden and al-Zawahiri to justice as anybody else.

So -- so, I understand, Michael, that you have strong feelings on the issue and you`ve had an opportunity to have a dialogue with Senator Obama. But make no mistake: Senator Clinton is as anxious as anybody else in America. We`re all anxious to see that justice is served.

SMERCONISH: Congressman Fattah, why doesn`t this get discussions in the debates? Why is there not discourse? I mean the short time the three of us are going to spend together will exceed the amount of time that this issue has been raised in any of the presidential debates so far.

REP. CHAKA FATTAH (D), PENNSYLVANIA: Well, look, when Barack Obama, Senator Obama, said that he would go after bin Laden, he was ridiculed. He was criticized by many of the pundits and the fellow Democrats, all of whom were in the race at the time, saying that, how could you go and attack an ally or this and that.

First of all, he never said that he`ll attack an ally. But he would act to get bin Laden wherever he might be, especially if he was in Pakistan. And we lost young people and not so young right here from Philadelphia, in this attack on 9/11.

But, I think what the important point is, is that because Barack Obama opposed the war in Iraq, some people perceive him to be, you know, a dove. What he has said consistently from day one, is he opposes the war in Iraq, because he thinks that the real enemy is in Afghanistan and in Pakistan. And that`s the war where we should be putting our focus and our resources.

The joint command has said, factually, on the record, that we don`t have enough troops in Afghanistan, and we can`t put more in unless we can get them out of Iraq.

SMERCONISH: T.J., in the short version of my opinion piece for the "Daily News" today, that which you just heard, I said there`s little discernible difference between these two candidates. Do you agree with that assessment?

ROONEY: I mean, I think on the issue of experience, there`s a profound difference. While I would respectfully disagree with your assessment of who the best candidate is -- I mean, that`s a subjective thing -- in my view, we need to win this election in November. That`s the one that counts.

And when you look at states like Pennsylvania and Ohio and Michigan and Florida, I know that Hillary Clinton can deliver victories in those states to bring about the ultimate victory and elect a Democrat as president. I`m not so sure that that`s the case for Senator Obama.

SMERCONISH: New polling data out today suggests that the gap has narrowed. In other words, not only has he survived the "bittergate," or whatever is that we`re going to call this recent flap, that he appears to be closing the margin as people digest those facts. T.J., what do you make of that?

ROONEY: Well, a couple of things. First of all, in this state, we`re being outspent, depending on the day, time, place and media, anywhere from 3 to 5 and 1. And you know, Michael, as well as anybody in Pennsylvania, and yet that is a relevant factor. That moves numbers being outspent in that fashion.

Quite frankly, I think the story is that, in fact, that Senator Obama doesn`t have a lead after spending all the money he has is the story, as far as I`m concerned. And having said all that, you know, again, I think we have to look to November. And ultimately, our test is going to be John McCain.

So issues like the bitter comments, the comments that Senator Obama made about Pennsylvanians being bitter and turning to guns and religion out of frustrations. Those words, I think, have the potential to be a lot more damaging against John McCain in the fall than they do against Hillary Clinton in the primary in Pennsylvania in April.

SMERCONISH: Hey, Chaka, T.J. makes a point. And I saw the data today that Barack Obama has spent a record in terms of the amount of money he`s put on television in a one-week time period.

You`re a guy known for your street organization in your congressional district. This doesn`t strike me as the sort of an election where money or organization is as important as the conventional race, because folks know who they`re voting for. They`re coming out. And you know, as Bob Brady said to me, the job is just open the polls and get out of the way.

FATTAH: I`ve won 26 elections and lost three over my career. And you know the feeling. And Michael, you`ve been involved in campaigns, and you know how this feels.

The reality is that Barack has won 30 states to her 14. He`s won more popular votes and more delegates. In Pennsylvania, what was a 26-point lead is now, by all accounts, 5 or 6 points. There`s a poll out this afternoon, showing Obama up 2 points. I don`t necessarily take belief in that.

But I do think that this Clinton`s state. She`s got a lot of support here. They`ve got a wonderful reputation, Bill and Hillary, here in Pennsylvania. But this is going to be a close competitive race.

And the way you can really tell what`s going on, is who is McCain attacking. Who is every right-wing political operative for the Republican Party attacking? They`re attacking Barack Obama, because they see him as the strongest candidate in the fall.

And that`s why they have been trying to actually help the -- Hillary`s effort to attack Obama on anything that they can come up with, which is, as we can see in these polls, none of it has amounted to anything.

SMERCONISH: T.J., I want to run by you my off-the-wall theory. And I know you`re thinking one of several, right?

ROONEY: Well...

SMERCONISH: When the book is finally written on this campaign, assuming that your candidate, Senator Clinton, is not victorious, I think one conclusion will be that Bill Clinton was misused. I happen to think that he is the best campaigner among any of the folks on the national stage. And it appears to me that he`s being hidden.

In other words, he`s being kept out of the major media markets. They`re sending him into Central Pennsylvania, State College and the like, instead of rolling him out in Philadelphia or in Pittsburgh. Tell me I`m wrong and why.

ROONEY: Well, I think you are, Michael. And quite frankly, I`ve been spending the lion`s share of my time traveling with -- with President Clinton. And I think it`s a great use of his time. Because when we pull up into Lewisburg, into Mifflin County, Juniata County, Indiana County and all of the places that we have blanketed over the course of the last few weeks, we`re building crowds during the day.

I mean, listen, we all know that people work. They have lives. We`re building crowds during the day exceeding 2,000. I think it`s a great use of his time. He has just the most remarkable ability to connect when he rolls into these towns.

You know what it`s like, Michael. You pull a motorcade through Philadelphia, and a lot of people get offended because you messed up the drive-time traffic. You go into, you know, Lewisburg, and people are lined up on the street, waiting, wanting to say hello.

So no, I think it`s a tremendous use. And, quite frankly, it`s his strength. That geographic region is a strength for us. And I think President Bill Clinton is playing to our strength.

SMERCONISH: All right. T.J. Rooney, he is the chairman of the statewide Democratic Party in Pennsylvania. Congressman Chaka Fattah. Men, we really appreciate you for being here.

FATTAH: Thank you, Michael.

ROONEY: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Coming up, all eyes on Pennsylvania at the moment. I`ll tell you why the changing political face of some of the communities there could tip the scales for one of the Democratic candidates next Tuesday.

Plus, actor Rob Lowe`s civil suit against three former employees heating up. Now one former nanny is countersuing for sexual harassment. We`ll sort it all out in just a bit.

And just a reminder, tonight`s show brought to you by the Sleep Number Bed. Sleep Number, it`s the bed that counts.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMERCONISH: Coming up, a new national poll suggests that Barack Obama is pulling way ahead of Hillary. If that`s true, how much longer can Clinton stay in the race? We`ll crunch the numbers in just a bit.

But first, in less than a week, my home state of Pennsylvania is going to play a key role in determining the Democratic nominee for president, and it`s been decades since we had any real say in a presidential primary. Pennsylvania politics has changed considerably during that time.

Democratic strategist James Carville once described Pennsylvania as consisting of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between. Pennsylvanians, we have a more PC name for the area that Carville was talking about. We call it the "T." It`s the conservative heartland of our state, home to Joe Pa and the Penn State Nittany Lions. This is where Bush 41 beat Bill Clinton, even while losing the state.

Pennsylvania hasn`t gone Republican in a presidential contest since 1988, but the "T" is reliably GOP.

So what`s changed since Pennsylvania had a last meaningful primary. It`s the Philly suburbs and the southwestern part of the state that are now in play. They used to reasonable the "T" in their voting patterns, but that`s no longer the case.

Take Montgomery County in suburban Philadelphia. It used to be the most finely tuned Republican machine in the entire commonwealth, but recently, it`s voted Democratic by increasing margins in each of the last four elections. And now there are more registered "D`s" than "R`s" in that county. Come next Tuesday, when Pennsylvanians color in that shaded map of Pennsylvania, don`t just focus on the "T." Focus on the Philadelphia suburbs.

Joining me now, Congressman Patrick Murphy, a Democrat from -- you guessed it -- Pennsylvania. He represents a large piece of the Philadelphia suburbs. He`s also author of a new book, called "Taking the Hill."

Hey, Congressman, what accounts for the increasing success of the Democratic Party, in your view, in those bedroom suburban communities?

REP. PATRICK MURPHY (D), PENNSYLVANIA: Sure, Michael, thanks for having me on. Michael, to answer your question, and my wife, as you know, is a Republican. She says the Republican Party left me. I didn`t leave the Republican Party.

SMERCONISH: How so? What issues?

MURPHY: Well, several things. One, before the `80s, you can say Democrats were tax and spenders. Under George Bush, Republicans became borrowers and spenders. Every single American in this country owes $30,000 for national debt, 68 percent of a foreign debt accrued under George Bush from foreign countries like communist China, like India, Japan. We`re even borrowing millions off of Mexico, Michael. We have to have a stop and we have to pay as you go system. That`s what we`ve done in this Congress.

I`m proud to be a blue dog Democrat from, as you know, Bucks County, your home town. And I read your article today. And it brings me to my next point. National defense, this Democratic Congress, we understand that we have to treat our veterans the right way. We`ve had the largest increase in veterans` benefits in 77 years.

SMERCONISH: And Patrick, you`re the only -- correct me if I`m wrong. You continue to be the only member in Congress, of Congress, that served in Iraq. Correct?

MURPHY: That`s right. I was a captain of the 82nd Airborne Division. I still wear it on my lapel.

SMERCONISH: Why -- why is an Iraqi war veteran, somebody who`s served his country in Iraq, supporting Barack Obama if Barack Obama wants to get out of Iraq? It sounds like a contradiction of sorts.

MURPHY: Absolutely isn`t, Michael. Because he understands that we have to put our focus back on the person who killed 3,000 innocent Americans. That`s Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda and where they are. That`s Afghanistan and the border of Pakistan. Not refereeing a religious civil war for the past years in Iraq.

And he gets it. He understands it. And you know, when he said, if I have -- Barack Obama, he said, "If I have Osama bin Laden in my sights, and if he`s in that region, I`m going to go after him as commander in chief." You know who criticized him? Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton. He got it right. The person who killed 3,000 innocent Americans and 18 people in Bucks County is Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.

SMERCONISH: I`ve tried -- I`ve tried to provide a quick tutorial of sorts, because you know, come next Tuesday, folks are going to be tuning into CNN and CNN Headline News and so forth, and they`re going to see this map of Pennsylvania go up and try and sort out what does that information means?

You know the conservative "T." James Carville derisively called it the Alabama -- I think it was derisively -- between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. That continues to be the conservative heartland.

But when you`re in your Barcalounger next Tuesday night and you`re watching those returns come in, where will your eye be trained to figure out who`s really winning the state?

MURPHY: You hit it right on the head. The Philadelphia suburbs and the northeast part of the state is really where it`s going to be won or lost. And I think it`s going to be one for Barack Obama. All the political pundits, Michael, are saying, no, it`s Hillary Clinton got the suburbs of Philadelphia. She -- everyone loves her. And she`s got northeastern part of the Pennsylvania up by Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.

Let me telling you something. The Scranton Times endorsed Barack Obama. My home paper, the "Bucks County Carrier-Times," this morning, endorsed Barack Obama. There is a grass roots movement that people do not recognize...

SMERCONISH: All right. Let me lay out another litmus test for you. This was Karl Rove`s. In an interview that I read with "GQ" that he just did, he says it all comes down to the booze. In other words, the beer crowd, Hillary Clinton. The white wine crowd, your man, Barack Obama. Too simplistic? Or I don`t know who gets the cosmos and the martinis. But you can sort that out.

MURPHY: Listen, hey, I`ll be drinking Miller Lite at that Barcalounger, looking at those results, Michael. And I can tell you something. I can tell you right now that the guys like myself, who didn`t even make $50,000 a year in the military, and I was in the military since 1993, got out in 2004, when I came back home from Iraq.

And I`m a guy who likes to put a couple back, responsibly, of course. I`m supporting Barack Obama because he`s a genuine leader. He is the guy who`s going to lead our country in a different direction.

SMERCONISH: You`re putting a couple of white wines back, right? I mean, that dovetails into the Rove theory?

MURPHY: My wife might. She`s Republican, so don`t give her too much thought.

SMERCONISH: If things don`t go your way, you`ll be throwing down anything you can. Who are you kidding?

MURPHY: You`re right there, Michael. You`re right there.

SMERCONISH: All right. Congressman, we appreciate it. Congressman Patrick Murphy. Thank you, sir.

MURPHY: Thank you, Michael.

SMERCONISH: Coming up -- thank you. Defense attorneys, they take a lot of heat, mostly from outside the courtroom. How can you defend those people? It`s a question, and it`s a book title. Its author, Mickey Sherman, joins me in just a bit.

And it`s a Hollywood saga as old as time. Celebrity hires hot nanny. Hot nanny sues celebrity for harassment. I`ll have the latest on the Rob Lowe legal battle with his former nanny.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMERCONISH: Hey, let`s face it: criminal defense attorneys don`t always get the best rap, and high-profile criminal defense attorneys, well, I think it`s the seventh circle of hell that`s reserved for them.

From respecting Michael Skakel in the famed Moxley murder trial to being a recurring character in James Patterson`s "Women`s Murders Club" series, Mickey Sherman. He`s arguably at the top of that list. In his new book, he attempts to answer the hateful glances that sometimes get shot his way. It`s called "How Can You Defend Those People?"

That`s the title and the question, Mickey. What`s the answer?

MICKEY SHERMAN, AUTHOR, "HOW CAN YOU DEFEND THOSE PEOPLE?": Not all criminal defendants are created equal. Everyone assumes that everyone you represent is not only guilty but a despicable human being and that we are a second lower than them for actually being their lawyers.

That changes. That -- we go through this metamorphosis, which takes about eight seconds, and it happens right after those people...

SMERCONISH: Get jammed up.

SHERMAN: Exactly. Their brother, their son, their uncle. When those people find out that they become those people, all of a sudden, we`re not so bad anymore.

SMERCONISH: Everybody -- I always used to use the line, everybody hates the trial bar, of which I`m a recovering member until they need a plaintiff`s lawyer.

SHERMAN: Exactly.

SMERCONISH: Listen, the book is funny as all get out. I mean, one of the things I learned about Mickey Sherman, because I know you as the legal go-to guy, the Moxley case, the Iron Sheik. You are a game show champion.

SHERMAN: That`s correct. When I was a prosecutor, and I was living in a refrigerator-box-sized condo, if I was every going to make money to buy a house in Connecticut, it was by going out in private practice and working hard and making a living. Or maybe going on game shows.

SMERCONISH: What game?

SHERMAN: So I went on "Jackpot," "Joker`s Wild" and "The Pyramid." OK, and I won about $23,000 cash. I won a hot tub. I won a trip to Hawaii. A lot of garbage. Lot of crap for the attic. But not enough to...

SMERCONISH: You gave one of the state secrets of how you get on a game show. That`s what I love. How do you get on a game show? You fill out the paperback and what?

SHERMAN: You have to lie. It`s a total -- remember, we`re not talking about the government here or an insurance claim. You`re lying to a game show, which isn`t even an infraction. It`s not even on the list.

So I would say -- it`s not either. I would say that I did extensive - - in my spare time, I would do extensive work on my translation of the Dead Sea Scrolls, that I was an ice climber. Just stuff that you -- during the light banter, when they make believe that they`re being friendly to you...

SMERCONISH: Right.

SHERMAN: ... this is what they`ve talked about.

SMERCONISH: And then you would psych out your opponents in the green room?

SHERMAN: Oh, yes. Yes. I really developed a knack for it. I`ve even told other people on game shows, I would say things like, "I`ve got to tell you, this is so much easier than the two weeks I was on `Jeopardy`."

SMERCONISH: OK. There`s a photograph in the book of you next to an airplane. What`s going on there?

SHERMAN: You know, when -- two minutes before the book was published, the publisher said, "Hey, give me old photos." I found that one. And when I was a senior in college, I went sky diving one day. And...

SMERCONISH: That`s an airplane that`s crashed.

SHERMAN: Yes, but that was another plane I was on. But I never told my mother I was going sky diving.

SMERCONISH: Right.

SHERMAN: Being the Jewish mother thing, right? Like she`s going to let me. Like I`m still a senior in -- I`m in college, but still. So, when I -- after we did this sky diving thing and I survived, and I saw this plane just crashed right near the runway. So I went over and had my picture taken, sent it home to my mom: "Mom, I joined the sky diving club. This was our first day. Few problems, but everything`s going to be great."

SMERCONISH: No wonder the Iron Sheik loved having you as his lawyer.

SHERMAN: That worked out well. He was a wrestling phenom. He`s not big now, because he`s on the Howard Stern show a lot. But I made a video, rather than showing letters of this good guy -- I made a video of all the wrestlers coming forward, doing their wrestling shtick. And you can see it on YouTube now.

SMERCONISH: I know the secret. How can you defend those people? You`ve got to have a sense of humor. That`s the answer.

SHERMAN: That`s it.

SMERCONISH: Thank you, Mickey Sherman.

Hey, coming up, Hillary Clinton may have the edge in Pennsylvania. But her national poll numbers, they`re telling a completely different story. I`ll explain in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMERCONISH: Coming up, it`s like an old Hollywood cliche. Rob Lowe has nanny trouble, lots of it. Lawsuits, accusations of extortion and sexual harassment. I`ll have the latest details in just a moment.

But first, one of the first national polls, if not the most surprising, coming in the wake of Barack Obama`s most recent "bitter" controversy, it suggests the remarks aren`t hurting him with voters. In fact, according to the ABC News/"Washington Post" poll, it looks like he`s pulling away.

So this means the cries for Hillary to drop out are going to grow louder? Or should we wait for the good people of Pennsylvania, where Clinton has a sizeable edge, to have their say next Tuesday?

Joining me now, Liz Chatterton, Democratic strategist and president of the Chatterton Group. Also joining me, John Zogby, president of Zogby International.

Hey, John, this morning the "Philadelphia Daily News" and Franklin and Marshall poll said that the margin is down to 6. What does it suggest to you?

JOHN ZOGBY, PRESIDENT, ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL: I`ve got pretty much the same thing, and I`ll have numbers out the day after tomorrow. But essentially, Barack Obama does not appear to have been hurt in Pennsylvania. We`re looking at a single-digit race. Anywhere, in some polls, from 3 points to as high as 9 points of a lead for Hillary Clinton.

The only interesting thing here has nothing at all to do with Barack Obama`s statements. It has more to do or whether or not he tightened up this race too soon. And that now, any victory by Hillary Clinton is still a victory and allows her bragging rights to continue on.

SMERCONISH: You know, Liz, one of the things that I have my eyes on, and I think I`ve got a graphic for this showing her unfavorable numbers, unfavorable ratings. This is now the ABC News/"Washington Post" poll. Fifty-four percent unfavorable rating for Senator Hillary Clinton. What`s the significance of that to you?

LIZ CHATTERTON, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, Michael, that`s a very significant number. It`s a significant number, I`m sure, to John, too, to anyone who reads polling. When you have unfavorability numbers over 50, it means that over 50 percent of the electorate might not vote for you and they`re already convinced, even way before we get to November.

So it`s problem for Hillary. But she`s always had very high unfavorable numbers. And yet, she was elected twice to the U.S. Senate from New York. And clearly, she`s still running very strong in this race. So the question is, what does it mean today? Not much. What could it mean if she`s the nominee? It could be a huge factor.

SMERCONISH: You know, John, one of the interesting aspects of that "Daily News"/Franklin and Marshall poll to me, looked at the new registrants. Because we`ve had an explosion of growth for the Democratic Party during the course of this election. And by a margin of about 60 percent, they said they were Obama folks.

You know, there`s been this suspicion out there that, perhaps, some folks who are Republican are joining the Democratic Party just for some tomfoolery. It would appear that that`s not the case. In other words, that`s not going to be the bulk of the Democratic primary voters.

ZOGBY: No, in fact, that tomfoolery is just tomfoolery. In -- in fact, you have a lot of younger voters. And new African-American voters, as well. And they are solidly with Barack Obama.

You know, any of the radio talk shows efforts, you know, to generate a Republicans-for-Obama thing is -- is blown way out of proportion.

SMERCONISH: I want to show another screen saver, if I may, the "L.A. Times"/Bloomberg survey. Liz, take a look at this.

Hillary, 46; Obama, 41. Again, compatible with the other data that we`re discussing so far. And what occurs to me is that this is the second time that there`s been a controversy that surrounds him, where he not only emerges, he emerges unscathed and maybe even with a bump.

And of course, I`m making reference to Reverend Wright. Some folks thought that would be his Achilles heel. He delivers the remarks, and you know, look at him now. Same deal with the "bitter" comment.

CHATTERTON: It`s very interesting, Michael. I have to tell you, it gives rise to the question of whether or not he really is Teflon.

But the truth is, what I think is happening here is that voters on the whole feel like they really know who Barack Obama is as a person. And they really like him. And when that happens, then when negatives come along, people tend not to believe them.

And it is interesting. Don`t get me wrong. I would have thought both Reverend Wright and the dust-up from over the weekend would have hurt him more, but it`s not. And I think it`s a continuing strength for him that these dust-ups don`t seem to really work. And he could really be the nominee and be a serious problem for John McCain in November.

SMERCONISH: Hey, John, you`re the man when it comes to polling. OK? Everybody knows the name John Zogby. I`ve had this wacky theory for a while. I`d love to run it by you.

The theory is this, relative to Senator Clinton. No one`s undecided. OK? It`s all a function of turnout if her name is on the line. You can run the race today, tomorrow, yesterday, and get the same result, whether it`s she and Senator Obama, she Senator McCain. You like her or you don`t like her. And therefore, it`s strictly a turnout race when she`s involved. Do you agree or disagree?

ZOGBY: That`s purely it. All she can do, really, in this primary is hurt Obama. And what is proving to happen instead is that she`s hurting herself. There really is no Hillary victory scenario here, either in the nomination or in the general election. So now the clock begins to tick. How does -- how does Hillary get out of the race?

SMERCONISH: All right. So what`s this all about? What`s the exercise we`re now going through? I mean, the Politico had a posting along the lines of what you just said about a week ago. The myth of Hillary Clinton, and they crunched the numbers. And they said, you know, it`s just not conceivable that she wins this thing. So if that`s what the experts are saying, then what are we involved in right now?

ZOGBY: We`re involved in either one of two things. One is, Hillary Clinton making good to two key constituency groups: older woman and Latinos, who will be very hurt and very -- if I could use the word -- bitter if she is forced out of the race in a week.

SMERCONISH: Why not?

ZOGBY: Or, it`s crash and burn. And that`s the really negative scenario, that not unlike Bill Clinton, she crashes and burns. If she goes down, she takes everything down with her.

SMERCONISH: Liz, give me the happy ending for Hillary Clinton. What is it?

CHATTERTON: Well, the happy ending is that she`s inaugurated as president in January of 2009. But I have to tell you, I agree with the Politico and most experts. It`s a really long way for that moment for her.

But here`s the reality. She has publicly said that she is not getting out of this race until June 3, which is the current date of the last Democratic primary. I believe her when she says it.

The way to win through the primary system, not real clear. She has to win the remaining primaries by 10, 15, even 20 points. It`s not going to happen.

But what she`s waiting for are the super delegates. The vast majority of them have not decided. And if they do swing her way in June, after the rest of the primaries are over, she could still be the nominee. And that would be extraordinary.

SMERCONISH: All right. Quick question for both of you, before we have to get out. This is now the Wednesday before the Tuesday primary in Pennsylvania. I say 3 to 5 point victory for her, probably. But I don`t rule out Senator Obama winning the state. What do the two of you say? We`ll start with John Zogby.

ZOGBY: Well, thanks a lot. People buy rope when I make a prediction. Yes, I think she wins, but not by very much.

SMERCONISH: Liz?

CHATTERTON: I agree, Michael. I say three to five, maybe seven, but no more than that.

SMERCONISH: Liz, John, many thanks for your contribution. We appreciate it.

CHATTERTON: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Coming up, the war of words between Rob Lowe and a former nanny. It`s heating up. Her attorney, Gloria Allred, she joins me next.

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SMERCONISH: Well, actor Rob Lowe is in news and probably not in a way that he`d like. He`s being sued by a former nanny. Jessica Gibson`s suit alleges that during her seven-year employment caring for the actor`s two children, she was sexually abused.

She claims that Rob Lowe repeatedly exposed himself to her and, on more than one occasion, put his hand down her pants. Gibson says she stayed with the family because she, quote, "loved the kids" and, quote, "needed a job." She also said that she was too frightened to speak out against, and I`m quoting again, "a powerful celebrity employer." We`re talking about the guy from "Wayne`s World" and "Tommy Boy."

Gloria Allred is Jessica Gibson`s attorney.

Gloria, I knew you`d be involved in this case the minute I heard of it.

GLORIA ALLRED, ATTORNEY FOR JESSICA GIBSON: Thank you, Michael, I think.

SMERCONISH: I think, as well. Hey, you better explain this e-mail, though. Because I`m looking at an e-mail that your client apparently sent to Rob Lowe`s wife, February 28, 2008. "I have nothing bad to say about your family and really am thankful for what you guys have done for me over the years. I hope we can handle this as friends." Seems inconsistent.

ALLRED: Not at all, actually. The issue was that she was desperate to get away. She quit for the third time and the final time, because she just couldn`t take it anymore. And she was afraid of getting them angry about her leaving. And about the allegations, ultimately, that she made.

SMERCONISH: But why is she afraid of getting them angry?

ALLRED: It turns out that she was right to be afraid, because look what happened. When in fact, her attorney at that time, not me, confronted the Lowes` attorney with the lawsuit that she planned to file, alleging sexual harassment, apparently the Lowes went ballistic, or at least did through their attorney, because he rushed to the courthouse, filed a lawsuit for her first, a preemptive strike, as he calls it. And then she was trashed in the media.

SMERCONISH: The complaint makes him out to be, you know, a pig. Why did she hang with him for seven years if the guy`s walking around with his drawers down?

ALLRED: Well, three times, she quit. Ultimately, the third time was the final time. She stayed because of the children, because she loved the two children. She was their nanny for seven years, from the time she was 17 years old and they were in preschool.

And also, she needed a job. And she kept hoping and believing that things would be different. And they kept asking her to come back when she quit. And that`s why she did.

SMERCONISH: Do you have a paper trail that will contradict the most recent paper trail? In others words, her perhaps, saying to Rob Lowe or his wife, hey, you can`t continue to act like this. Your behavior is repulsive. Yada, yada, yada. What have you got?

ALLRED: Well, we`re not going to lay out our evidence anywhere, except in the courtroom or in the course of this litigation through discovery. But we do feel that we have sufficient evidence, outstanding evidence, which will be supportive of our legal theory.

SMERCONISH: What`s the worst of it? Paint the worst picture, according to your client, of what Rob Lowe did to her in the course of her employment.

ALLRED: Well, I mean, we`re alleging sexual assault, sexual battery, sexual harassment and retaliation. Retaliation is a separate claim, for example. That after they were confronted with her claim of sexual harassment, through their attorney, they retaliated against her by filing the preemptive strike lawsuit and then taking to the airwaves through their attorney.

SMERCONISH: You`re saying deliberately -- listen, there`s a woman who cleaned our house recently that surprised me, so I was buck naked. I wasn`t out to harass her. I mean maybe Rob Lowe was naked, because he was walking from the shower somewhere. What makes you say it was deliberate that she saw him, literally, with his drawers down?

ALLRED: Well, it`s going to be interesting to see if that fact is the position that he takes, not having the drawers down but that somehow that that was an accident. We`re going to be taking his deposition. We`ve already noticed it for May 19. And then his wife`s deposition on the 20th.

And we`re going to look forward to what they have to say at that time under oath. And I`ll be looking forward to sitting across the table from them as that happens.

SMERCONISH: Final question.

ALLRED: We know that our client has nothing to hide. We wonder if that will be Mr. Lowe`s position, as well.

SMERCONISH: Do you believe that Rob`s wife knew that he was acting in the inappropriate fashion that you maintain was going on?

ALLRED: Well, we have also sued her as a defendant for creating or being -- or at least having a sexually hostile type of working environment, because that`s what claiming sexual harassment in parts. At least, his wife (ph).

SMERCONISH: I`ve got it. All right. Gloria, many thanks. We appreciate you being here.

ALLRED: Any time. Thank you, Michael.

SMERCONISH: This isn`t the first time that we`ve seen celebrity nannies in the spotlight, from Jude Law to the Beckhams. Nannies seem to keep getting celebrities in trouble.

Kim Serafin is the senior editor of "In Touch Weekly." Hey, Kim, is the other shoe going to drop in this case? I mean, there`s a back and forth going on of e-mails and so forth. What`s the skinny out there in La- La Land?

KIM SERAFIN, SENIOR EDITOR, "IN TOUCH WEEKLY": Well, I think, you know, as Gloria was saying, I think everyone was obviously surprised about this. Because last week, Rob Lowe did do this preemptive strike. He wrote an op-Ed on the Huffington Post and then filed his lawsuit against the nanny.

So I think on one hand, you know, people thought, "OK, the ball is certainly in his court." It put them on the defensive, put the nanny on the defensive.

But on the other hand, like you`re saying, maybe there could some truth to this. There have been nannies involved with their celebrities, who are big celebrities in the past.

Maybe it`s true, as Gloria was saying. Maybe they filed this lawsuit because they wanted to intimidate her, because she`s a nanny who doesn`t have a lot of money, and they`re rich, powerful celebrities.

SMERCONISH: When I saw it go up at Huff Po a week ago, his preemptive strike, you know, I thought this is like the Roger Clemens of Hollywood. It`s a full frontal, no pun intended. You better be willing to prove this against me. A brazen strategy.

SERAFIN: Definitely. Definitely a brazen strategy. But probably the only one he could really take, because in this town, really in any town, especially in Hollywood, your image is everything. Your image is so important to you. So for the past week, again, I think the public side was probably on Rob Lowe`s side, because they only heard that side of the story.

And then of course, yesterday, the other side came out. And now people are hearing a different tale of what went on in the house. I think Rob did what -- the only thing that he could do, being in the spotlight. Because getting it out there, he had to address it. And at least this way, he sort of had the upper hand for a week. Now, maybe not so much.

SMERCONISH: I get some of these guys mixed up, so help me navigate this. Am I right it was Rob Lowe who years ago was involved in some escapades at the Democratic convention? There was video.

SERAFIN: Right, right. There was a video -- there was a video that came out of him. This was back in, like, 1989. It had come out about him at the Democratic convention, where he was with an underaged girl.

SMERCONISH: Was she his nanny?

SERAFIN: No. She wasn`t his nanny. He didn`t have a nanny back then. But you know, it certainly did not help his career. He didn`t work for about ten years after that. I think that`s really in the past. That was 20 years ago.

But he certainly does know how to deal with an issue like this. I mean, he has -- once you`ve been something like that, you know you have to get out in front of the story. But yes, there have been definitely other incidents of employers who are famous celebrities and their nannies.

SMERCONISH: How many confidentiality agreements to kick in, in cases like this? Aren`t they obligated to sign something that "You`re going to keep your mouth shut. We`re bringing you into a very private and personal circumstance"?

SERAFIN: Right. Right. And that`s what Rob Lowe is alleging, that he alleged in his suit last week, was that she violated her confidentiality agreement. So that of course, happens.

But remember, these are nannies. They`re not just there to clean the house for an hour and take care of the kids for a few hours. They -- they live there. They`re there. They see everything about the family.

SMERCONISH: Yes, but you know what? There should be some confidentiality that goes with that. There`s -- nobody respects the hooker code anymore. Look at Eliot Spitzer. She`s telling the world everything.

SERAFIN: Right.

SMERCONISH: The nannies, it`s the same deal. They`re all yapping.

SERAFIN: Right. Right, right. But you know, again, they become part of the family. You know, you mentioned at the beginning of segment that this is nothing new.

I mean, Jude Law, who was engaged to Sienna Miller at the time, was involved with his nanny. Ethan Hawke, who got divorced from Uma Thurman, is now involved with his nanny. Now, they say it didn`t start while he was with Uma. It started a year after they divorced. So -- but that seems to be working out. They`re having a child together.

Even Robin Williams. He`s now divorcing his wife of 19 years. But she actually was his nanny when he got divorced from his other wife.

SMERCONISH: I think the answer is marry a woman who`s capable of taking -- taking care of your kids. And you don`t have to worry about nannygate. Right?

SERAFIN: Well, you know, hey, if you`re a woman that has a job, then why isn`t the guy taking care of the kids? We could start on a whole thing there, Michael.

SMERCONISH: All right. Hey, thank you, Kim. Appreciate it very much.

SERAFIN: Thanks.

SMERCONISH: Coming up, the pope and the Catholic vote. Will the pontiff`s visit to the states have an effect on the upcoming election? Find out when we come back.

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SMERCONISH: It`s day two of the pope`s visit to the United States and already his impact on millions of American Catholics is being felt. But will his visit and the issues he has already begun to raise influence their votes, and which candidate will benefit?

CNN White House correspondent Ed Henry takes a look at how the presidential contenders are wooing the Catholic vote.

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ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Catholics are critical in November. There are 70 million of them in America, and they picked the winner in 8 of the last 9 presidential elections.

Catholic voters up for grabs will be listening to the pope very closely for any divine guidance.

JOHN ALLEN, CNN VATICAN ANALYST: Benedict XVI is not a super delegate riding into town to deliver a key endorsement. On the other hand, I think it would also be terribly naive to think there`s no political subtext to the pope`s presence in the United States.

HENRY: Democrats, both in favor of abortion rights, are trying to highlight other subjects where they agree with the pope.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He`s been a strong voice on behalf on what we must do to deal with poverty and deal with injustice.

HENRY: Hillary Clinton has an edge among Catholics in the primary. But Barack Obama is trying to shake that up in heavily Catholic Pennsylvania with the endorsement of antiabortion Catholic Democrat Bob Casey Jr.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Ironically, the first school I went to in Indonesia was a Catholic school.

HENRY: Republican John McCain could run into trouble over the Vatican`s opposition to the Iraq war. But the pope has recently expressed concern that a quick U.S. pullout from Iraq could cause a humanitarian crisis.

PETER WEHNER, SENIOR FELLOW, ETHICS AND PUBLIC POLICY CENTER: I think that McCain`s view of the nature and threat of Islamic terrorism is very consistent with what the pope has said.

HENRY: McCain is also in sync with the pope on abortion, but a recent Pew poll found 51 percent of American Catholics believe abortion should be legal.

So the Catholic vote is not monolithic, making it hard to decipher which way they`ll go.

LUIS LUGO, DIRECTOR, PEW FORUM ON RELIGION AND PUBLIC LIFE: The Catholic vote, as a whole, is a fascinating study because it is -- it is the quintessential swing vote in American elections.

HENRY (on camera): Strategists in both parties privately say that Catholics could swing to John McCain this time, but only if he starts stressing social issues more and begins wearing his faith on his sleeve, two things he has not been comfortable with so far.

Ed Henry, CNN, Washington.

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SMERCONISH: That`s all for tonight. I`m Michael Smerconish, filling in for Glenn Beck. From New York, good night.

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