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Historic Deal Reached at Iran Nuclear Talks; Netanyahu Speaks Out on Iran Deal; Saudi Source Calls Iran Deal "Monumental Miscalculation"; Oil Prices Moving on Iran Deal; Closest Look Ever at Pluto and Its Five Moons; Harper Lee's New Novel Hits Bookstores; "El Chapo" Likely Had Inside Help. Aired 10-11 ET
Aired July 14, 2015 - 10:00 ET
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[09:59:56]
ROBYN CURNOW, CNN HOST: Welcome to the INTERNATIONAL DESK. I'm Robyn Curnow. Now it took two years of negotiations and multiple deadline
extensions but Iran and six world powers finally have that landmark nuclear deal.
It happened this morning in Vienna.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CURNOW (voice-over): The deal will lift crippling economic sanctions in exchange for Iran limiting its nuclear activities. The presidents of the
United States and Iran each addressed their nations after the deal was announced.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: In a worst-case scenario, Iran violates the deal, the same options that are available to me today
will be available to any U.S. president in the future.
And I have no doubt that 10 or 15 years from now, the person who holds this office will be in a far stronger position with Iran further away from a
weapon and with the inspections and transparency that allow us to monitor the Iranian program.
For this reason, I believe it would be irresponsible to walk away from this deal.
HASSAN ROUHANI, IRANIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): In order to respect the red lines and to have the goals that we wish to have, a
remarkable effort was put into the talks by Iranian diplomats, by Iranian legal experts, by Iranian economic experts and by Iranian nuclear
scientists in the first -- in the early days of the negotiations.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CURNOW: Well, Nic Robertson has been coverage the negotiations in Vienna for weeks now. He breaks down the specifics of the deal and crucially what
to expect going forward.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: One of the issues that Secretary Kerry is going to hope that sells this to skeptics is -- was
one of the hardest things to get agreed.
This was the access to Iran's sites by the nuclear inspectors. The 24/7 monitoring is -- involves the International Atomic Energy Agency,
increasing the number of weapons inspectors it has and allowing them to request access to any site that they see fit in Iran and there are strict
and strong protocols to follow that up, managed access.
If there is disagreement then any disagreement about access to a site will be quickly escalated. They will expect to be selling it on the fact that
they've been able to reduce Iran's nuclear stockpiles by 98 percent from 12,000 kilograms of low enriched uranium to just 300. This will be
maintained for 15 years.
The ability to snap back sanctions, this is something that could happen, a process that could begin within a 30-day period if Iran doesn't comply with
what it signed up to here.
So these are going to be some of the strong selling points. Of course, there is a huge amount of detail here. But it is perhaps that inspection
system, the robust inspection system which is designed to give the greatest confidence that Iran will be monitored very closely.
We're also told that there will be monitoring from the uranium mines through the uranium mills, all the way through to the enrichment process.
So Iran cannot develop a completely covert part of nuclear enrichment to accumulate weapons grade material that could then help it build a bomb
further down the line.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CURNOW: Nic Robertson reporting there.
Now let's remind you how we got to this point. This really has been a long and rocky road.
Between 2006 and 2010, the U.N. Security Council, concerned Iran was developing a nuclear weapon, passed six different resolutions targeting the
country's nuclear program.
November 2013: the five permanent U.N. Security Council members, Germany and Iran agreed to an interim deal, essentially freezing Iran's nuclear
program and easing some sanctions so a long-term agreement could be negotiated.
A year later with some progress but no agreement, talks were extended for another seven months with a deadline set for the end of March.
On April 2nd, the U.S. and other world powers reached an agreement over the basis for a deal with Iran and aimed to reach a formal agreement by June
30th.
Talks continued through June and the deadline was extended repeatedly before today's historic agreement.
Well, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says the deal is based on verification, not trust and that if Iran fails to keep up its side,
international sanctions will be reimposed.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE: From the start, President Obama and I have pledged that we would not settle for anything less than a good deal, good
for Americans and good for our partners, our friends, our allies, good for the future of the Middle East and good for the peace of mind of the world.
That is what we pursued and that as we insisted on --
[10:05:00]
KERRY: -- for the long months of hard negotiations and that is precisely what we believe we have achieved today.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CURNOW: John Kerry speaking there.
Well, Elise Labott joins us now with more on the view from Washington.
We must also say that we're waiting for Benjamin Netanyahu to give a press conference there. You can see some sound checks are being taken at that
podium and we will go to that when we see the Israeli leader for his comments.
But, Elise, just back to you, there's a lot of detail here. But broadly, would you say this is a good deal?
ELISE LABOTT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I would say it's probably not the deal that everyone in the United States and the international community wanted,
Robyn. When I think what the U.S. is going to say when you look at the alternative, this was the best deal they were able to get.
Now you can say that the U.S. -- certainly members of Congress will say -- that the U.S. should have waited, should have held out for a tougher deal,
imposed more sanctions. But at that point, if the U.S. were to walk away from this --
(CROSSTALK)
LABOTT: -- agreement that it has with Iran, Iran would not be down by the terms of its agreement. And we've known that Iran is about three months
from a -- currently from a breakout period of having enough nuclear material to move towards a nuclear weapon.
So I think if you look at the curbs that will be in place for the next 10- 15 years, they're not 100 percent but certainly there are going to be limits on Iran's nuclear program. This is going to be a tighter, more
limited -- there's going to be more eyes watching Iran's program than there were before.
And it's going to last for a pretty long time. And on Iran's side, it's going to get billions of dollars in lifting of sanctions. This, in effect,
legitimizes Iran's nuclear activity and it does put Iran on a path to a better relationship with the West and the international community.
Now the hope is that this will in turn lead to other cooperation with Iran and the international community, particularly the U.S. on ISIS, on Syria.
We'll have to wait and see. But certainly for those who were advocating for a deal on both sides, there's plenty to be happy about this deal, I
would say.
CURNOW: OK. You talked about eyes. Let's talk about the realities of inspections, of the verification process. Nic Robertson talks about
managed access.
What exactly is the procedure? How will this verification be implemented? How difficult will it be?
LABOTT: Well, it's going to be difficult but not impossible. And certainly inspectors from the IAEA, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, are very
experienced and this is not really their first rodeo, as we say here in the U.S., on this.
There's going to be consultation -- when the IAEA feels that it needs to go to any particular facility, they're going to go there. Now when you're
talking about military facility -- nuclear facilities, I don't think there's any problem about inspectors going there.
But the whole -- the real sticking point on this deal was access to Iranian military sites. Now the IAEA wanted to verify lingering questions about
past efforts by Iran they believed to develop a nuclear weapon. And when you start to talk about getting access to Iranian military sites, that's
where the Iranians were really resistant.
And so that's where is going to be the managed access, when the IAEA feels it needs to go to a site, there's going to be consultations between these
world powers that are signatories to the deal and Iran.
It's not going to be anytime, anywhere, as people had hoped for. That's not really practical, given the breadth of Iran's nuclear facilities and
the small amount of inspectors that are going to be on the ground.
So there was going to give via heads up. Now the question is how long is that lead time going to be, is there going to be an opportunity for Iran to
do a bait-and-switch? Secretary Kerry was saying today that even if Iran were to cheat in one area, the U.S. would -- and its partners would have
access to the entire fuel cycle of Iran.
So if they could cheat in one area, they wouldn't be able to cheat in other areas. And in fact, they would have to have a covert program of all
aspects of a nuclear program in order to develop a weapon. And the secretary said that's really not feasible.
So we'll have to see how that managed access works. It's certainly more access than they have now.
CURNOW: OK. Elise Labott, we'll leave it at that. Thanks for your reporting.
Let's take a look at what the nuclear deal means for relations between the U.S. and Iran. Reza Marashi joins us now from Vienna, Austria, for that.
He's the research director for the National Iranian American Council.
You've been there. You've actually been quite intimately involved. At least you know kind of the angst that has gone into this deal, a very
arduous process. The details, as I was talking to Elise about, particularly when it comes to sanctions, when will they be lifted?
[10:10:00]
CURNOW: There's also just not one set of sanctions; there's a complicated regime.
How will this practically be undone?
REZA MARASHI, RESEARCH DIRECTOR, NATIONAL IRANIAN AMERICAN COUNCIL: Well, the important thing to point out when it comes to sanctions and having
sanctions undone is that it's a step-by-step process based on reciprocity and simultaneity, meaning as the United States takes steps, Iran will take
steps.
And as Iran takes steps, the United States will take steps.
So at the end of the day, no relief is provided to either side unless one side fulfills its end of the bargain.
The other thing that I would say about sanctions is you have not only American sanctions, you have European sanctions and you have U.N. Security
Council sanctions. So you're really peeling back layers of an onion here and that takes time.
But I think parties on all sides understand that.
CURNOW: Parties on all sides understand that; in terms of ordinary Iranians, when will this impact on the street?
When will this start to make a difference in their lives?
MARASHI: That's a great question and I'm glad you asked it. I think there's two kinds of impacts that sanctions relief can provide to ordinary
Iranians.
When you talk about the economic impact that will come, I think that's going to be felt over time. I don't think there's going to be a short-term
boost or boom that's provided to innocent Iranians inside of Iran.
But I'd also think that they understand that and I think that it's the responsibility of the Iranian government to do expectation management when
it comes to this issue.
But there's also Iran's reputation in the world. There's also the dignity of Iran and respect. And I think that's something that can be provided to
the Iranian people relatively quickly. And I think that's something that they also take very seriously.
So when you combine these two and put the package together, I think it's a longer-term process that relief will be provided to the Iranian people in a
way where they benefit across the board.
CURNOW: We're just going to leave you for a moment there, Reza. Benjamin Netanyahu has come to the podium. Let's listen in.
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: The world is a much more dangerous place today than it was yesterday. The leading international
powers have bet our collective future on a deal with the foremost sponsor of international terrorism. They've gambled that, in 10 years' time,
Iran's terrorist regime will change while removing any incentive for it to do so.
In fact, the deal gives Iran every incentive not to change. In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with
hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran's terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to
destroy Israel, which are ongoing.
Amazingly, this bad deal does not require Iran to cease its aggressive behavior in any way. And just last Friday that aggression was on display
for all to see. While the negotiators were closing the deal in Vienna, Iran's supposedly moderate president chose to go to a rally in Tehran, and
at this rally --
CURNOW: OK. Well, we seem to have lost Benjamin Netanyahu there. He was speaking about that Iran deal. His language not changing, calling it a bad
deal.
Apparently we have him back. Let's listen in again.
NETANYAHU: -- Iran's supposedly moderate president chose to go to a rally in Tehran, and at this rally, a frenzied mob burned American and Israeli
flags and chanted, "Death to America. Death to Israel."
Now this didn't happen four years ago. It happened four days ago. Iran's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei, said on March 21st that the deal
does not limit Iran's aggression in any way.
He said, "Negotiations with the United States on the nuclear issue and on nothing else," and three days ago, he made that clear again.
"The United States," he said, "embodies global arrogance and the battle against it will continue unabated, even after the nuclear agreement is
concluded."
Here is what Hassan Nasrallah (ph), the head of Iran's terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, said about sanctions relief, which is a key component of the
deal.
He said, "A rich and strong Iran will be able to stand by its allies and friends in the region more than at any time in the past."
Translation: Iran's support for terrorism and subversion will actually increase after the deal.
In addition to --
[10:15:00]
NETANYAHU: -- filling Iran's terror war chest, this deal repeats the mistakes made with North Korea. There, too, we were sure that inspections
and verifications would prevent a rogue regime from developing nuclear weapons and we all know how that ended.
The bottom line of this very bad deal is exactly what Iran's President Rouhani said today. The international community is removing the sanctions
and Iran is keeping its nuclear program.
By not dismantling Iran's nuclear program, in a decade, this deal will give an unreformed, unrepentant and far richer terrorist regime the capacity to
produce many nuclear bombs, in fact, an entire nuclear arsenal with the means to deliver it.
What a stunning historic mistake. Israel is not done -- is not bound by this deal with Iran and Israel is not bound by this deal with Iran because
Iran continues to seek our destruction. We will always defend ourselves. Thank you.
CURNOW: You're listening there to Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister.
I want to go back to our analyst.
Reza, are you still there?
Were you listening? Were you able to listen to Benjamin Netanyahu? His language certainly not changing; his message very much the same, a bad
deal, he says, a historic mistake.
How does that kind of language, that narrative play out now in Iran?
MARASHI: Well, it's funny you should ask that question. Just yesterday, the prime minister's office created a Persian language or a Farsi language
Twitter account and started tweeting things in the native tongue of most Iranians.
And the responses that they received on Twitter from Iranians inside of Iran bordered on hilarious to perhaps somewhat offensive.
So they don't -- moral of the story is they didn't -- most people didn't much appreciate the prime minister's comments that were made. And I think
that's because most Iranians believe that this deal is long overdue. It's necessary; it will end a lot of unnecessary hardship.
So there is a gulf between the perception of the Israeli prime minister and the reality of the Iranian people.
CURNOW: Benjamin Netanyahu talking about aggression in the region, saying this deal gives Iran incentive not to change, it rewards Iran.
What do you say to those critics who say this might be an opportunity now for perhaps the Iranian generals to step up financing of Hezbollah or to
flex their muscles elsewhere, that this does change the game?
MARASHI: That's a great question. I wonder why the prime minister of Israel thinks that he knows things that the six global powers don't know
about Iran, because the prime minister hasn't been negotiating with Iran. The six global powers have.
And the six global powers have made a decision that everything that the prime minister just articulated on television is, in fact, not true and is,
in fact, unlikely.
So there seems to be a difference between interests and values when it comes to the American position and the Israeli position. And that's OK.
Sometimes that's just life. But I would also point out that the prime minister of Israel, when the interim nuclear deal was struck in November
2013, called it a bad, bad deal.
You fast forward to today, he said we should be keeping the interim deal rather than signing a comprehensive deal.
So we have a shift of position that took place in Israel. And I think it's very realistic that another shift of position could take place once the
Israeli government and the Israeli people see just how good this deal could potentially be.
CURNOW: OK. And then just to speak more about that issue, this is a deal with the largest Shia player in the region.
How does that change the geopolitics -- does it?
MARASHI: I think that if it's going to change the geopolitics, it's going to require Iran to reach out to its Arab neighbors and try to engage them
diplomatically in ways that, frankly, haven't been taking place for the better part of over a decade in most cases because anytime the sectarian
tensions between Shia and Sunni are heightened, it widens divisions and it destabilizes all countries involved.
So I think religious differences are going to have to be put on the back burner and strategic interests are going to have to be put at the forefront
in effort to build a better future and a more peaceful future for all parties involved.
I think Iran will try to do that and I hope that the Arab neighbors of Iran will return or will reciprocate that diplomatic offer. I believe that they
will because I think that they believe it's in their interests to do so.
CURNOW: OK. Reza Marashi, thank you so much for your analysis. Appreciate it.
[10:20:00]
CURNOW: Well, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasn't wasting any time, was he? He denounced the deal on Iran's nuclear program as soon as
it was finalized, saying Iran would receive billions of dollars to fuel its, quote, "terror machine," and expand its aggression across the region.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NETANYAHU (through translator): When you're ready to make a deal, no matter what the cost, this is the result. From the first reports that are
arriving, it is already possible to conclude that this agreement is a historic mistake for the world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CURNOW: The prime minister has just given an address as you heard. Our Erin McLaughlin joins me now live from Jerusalem with more on that.
So what is Israel's position here?
There really has been a great deal of outrage and anger.
ERIC MCLAUGHLIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There has, Robyn, and you're right; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just gave a statement addressing this
deal in which he reiterated something we've heard him say earlier in the day, calling it a historic -- a stunning historic mistake.
He said the bottom line to this deal, international community is removing sanctions and Iran is keeping its nuclear program. We've also heard from
other Israeli officials, calling the deal tragic, saying that this is a black day in history.
And that just really gives you sort of a sense of the level of dislike for this deal as well as the level of distrust.
Now we also heard from hardline coalition partner Naftali Bennett, in an interview with CNN. He delved a little bit deeper into specifically what
some of their objections are. Take a listen to what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NAFTALI BENNETT, ISRAEL EDUCATION MINISTER: It's going to legitimize Iran's quest for nuclear power. And, in effect, all the promises that we
have heard over the past year, that the embargo would not be lifted. Well, the embargo is lifted on missiles, albeit five years down.
We have heard that there was going to be anytime, anywhere sanctions. Now we know that it's not anytime, anywhere sanctions. And we know that when
West wants to inspect something, it will have to be a very cumbersome process that will give enough time for Iran to hide its activities.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCLAUGHLIN: Now when Bennett was here for that interview, he was still working his way through the deal, reading it word for word, line by line,
as no doubt many Israeli government officials are doing.
We do expect a security cabinet meeting to be taking place shortly and perhaps we'll hear more reaction in terms of specific objections to this
agreement in the coming hours -- Robyn.
CURNOW: The next question I was going to ask you, what does Israel do next?
MCLAUGHLIN: Yes, well, we've heard from Israeli leaders today, say they plan to try and convince lawmakers around the world, presumably U.S.
lawmakers, to quash this deal.
But given that U.S. President Barack Obama has come out saying that he will veto any legislation out of Congress that would try and prevent this deal
going forward, that would be -- would seem to be an uphill battle.
But Israeli officials, Bennett saying that they have plans beyond that. I want you to take a listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BENNETT: Israel always said that we will prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. And we will still do that. We stand behind these words.
We are preparing for everything we need to do in order to defend ourselves.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCLAUGHLIN: So you heard him say there we're preparing for everything we need to do to defend ourselves; when pressed on what that specifically
means, he said he would not say. He did not want, in his words, to "tip off" Iran.
CURNOW: OK. Thank you so much, Erin McLaughlin there in Israel.
Ironically, the Saudi reaction to the Iran nuclear deal echoes the harsh words of the Israeli prime minister. A Saudi source tells our Becky
Anderson that the Obama administration made a monumental historical miscalculation by reaching an agreement with Iran.
Our Becky Anderson now join us live from Abu Dhabi.
Hi, there, Becky. What more have you heard?
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST: It's been a mixed reaction in the Gulf, this deal, Robyn, while here in the UAE, President Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan
congratulated the Iranian president on what he called the historic nuclear deal. A source in Saudi told me a short while ago -- and I'll repeat what
you've just said, that the deal was -- and I quote -- "a monumental historical miscalculation and a charade."
Now the U.S. said that this deal strengthens security for this region, doesn't weaken it. In Riyadh, Robyn, that doesn't stick. A Shia Iran
ideologically it alters this predominantly Sunni Arab region, a Tehran that is accused by Saudi as meddling --
[10:25:00]
ANDERSON: -- in what is a roiling Middle East, rife with conflict, exerting, it says, and expanding its influence, being that in Iraq or
Syria, Yemen or Lebanon.
And always do remember the very legitimacy of the Saudi monarchy questioned by the Islamic Republic's leadership.
I think the nuance then is more in the benefits of an Iran brought in from the cold rather than the costs of this deal, the lifting of the trade and
banking sanctions on Tehran will play very positively for the UAE, specifically for Dubai, for example.
You'll know that for years this has been a center for trade and investment with Iran and in a position to boost its bilateral trade almost overnight
once these sanctions are lifted.
There is a clear risk to the Gulf oil exporters. Iran sits on 157 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. That's nearly 10 percent of global
reserves. And today oil officials in Tehran signal their intention to be, again, one of Europe's major crude oil supplies, at least. But the Iranian
oil minister has admitted to CNN in a recent interview that it could take up to four years before they pump their maximum capacity.
You look to the Gulf state of Oman, for example, that acted as a discreet mediator in the past, it sees potentially lucrative business from Iranian
oil exports to Southeast Asia.
And then you've got Kuwait, Robyn, one source telling me that the Gulf state will welcome a deal as it may put a lid on Tehran's influence and
agitation amongst its Shia population.
So I guess my point is this, that the Sunni Arab Gulf states might mostly act in tandem when it comes to foreign policy but national interests very
much informing reaction to this deal -- Robyn.
CURNOW: OK, Becky Anderson, as always, thanks so much for your analysis. Thanks.
This is the INTERNATIONAL DESK. Ahead, all smiles in Vienna after months of negotiations. We'll have the latest on that landmark nuclear deal
reached today by Iran and six world powers. Stay with us.
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CURNOW: Hi, there. Welcome back to the INTERNATIONAL DESK. I'm Robyn Curnow. Let's check on the headlines.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CURNOW (voice-over): Iran and six world powers reached a landmark deal to limit Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. They
announced the breakthrough today in Vienna, capping off nearly two years of negotiations and multiple deadline extensions.
[10:30:00]
CURNOW (voice-over): Western leaders call the deal the best way to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
The presidents of both Iran and the U.S. have made statements about the deal. U.S. President Barack Obama said it demonstrates that American
diplomacy can be -- can bring real and meaningful change while Iran's Hassan Rouhani said all of Tehran's objectives had been met by the accord.
And Mexican authorities have questioned at least 34 people over the prison escape of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman. The drug lord broke out over the
weekend through a tunnel built under his cell. Police have launched a manhunt to find him and put out a $3.8 million reward for his capture.
NASA's new horizons have finally passed by Pluto. This is the closest anyone's ever gotten to the dwarf planet. The mission was nine years in
the making and will collect data on Pluto. New photographs already show Pluto is bigger than original estimates. Scientists hope this mission will
reveal more about the uncharted areas of our solar system.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CURNOW: Well, it's a deal that could fundamentally change the relationship between Iran and the West. And as you've been hearing, a final agreement
over Tehran's nuclear program has been reached and the U.S. President Barack Obama says it'll affect the Middle East as a whole.
Took roughly two years of negotiations to get here. Sanctions against Iran will be lifted and Western leaders say the deal will eliminate Iran's path
to the bomb.
Let's remind you of what this deal entails. Inspectors will have 24/7 access to Iran's key nuclear facilities. Iran will have to get rid of 98
percent of its enriched uranium stockpile. This stockpile limitation will last for 15 years.
Sanctions relief with Iran will be phased in. If Iran violates the deal, all sanctions will snap back -- in other words we'll be back to square one.
Flynt Leverett joins us now from Vienna with more on this agreement. He's a professor of law and international affairs at Penn State University.
He's also co-author of the book, "Going to Tehran."
Thank you so much, sir, for joining us.
Is this a similar leap of faith by Obama as Nixon's rapprochement with China? Put it in the big historical context here.
FLYNT LEVERETT, PENN STATE UNIVERSITY: I wish it were as big a leap of faith as Nixon's famous journey to China. If you compare the two
initiatives, this nuclear deal -- and I say this as someone who supports the deal and is glad that this negotiating process has succeeded, but it is
defined as a very narrow kind of transactional exchange, very much focused on the nuclear issue, on what Iran will and won't do with its nuclear
program, what the U.S. and other countries will do in terms of sanctions relief.
And that's a very, very good thing. But what did Nixon do? Nixon basically revolutionized America's policy toward this important rising
power in Asia, a power that, by virtue of a very hostile policy that the United States had pursued toward China for 20 years after the Chinese
revolution, had gotten the United States into the draining quagmire, Vietnam, and had really badly eroded America's strategic position in Asia
and around the world.
If you look at the Middle East today, I think the United States is in a similar pattern of largely self-inflicted decline, failed wars, failed
military interventions, partnerships with allies like Saudi Arabia, that lead to the creation of things like the Islamic State, partnerships with an
ally like Israel that binds the United States to open-ended occupation of Arab populations.
The United States needs to reformulate its strategy toward the whole region and to do that it has to come to terms with this power, this increasingly
influential regional power, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which whether some Americans like it or not, it's here to stay. We need to deal with
that reality.
So in that sense, what Obama has done is not nearly as bold as what Nixon did to China. I hope that this nuclear agreement will at least be a
critical step toward a broader realignment of U.S. relations with Iran.
CURNOW: A broader realignment, bearing in mind that these former foes who hadn't spoken to each other in decades has spent essentially the last two
years locked in hotel rooms. So there really is a reformulation of this relationship.
What does this mean for America's --
[10:35:00]
CURNOW: -- bilateral relations with Saudi and with Israel in particular? The Israelis are angry.
LEVERETT: When President Nixon went to China, some of our traditional allies, like Japan, weren't happy about it. But they adjusted. They ended
up making their own peace with the People's Republic of China and for the next 20 years after that, they enjoyed some of the most prosperous years of
their post-World War II history.
This is ultimately good for the region. It is good for the region in which Israel, Saudi Arabia, other American allies live. And the United States
needs to do this because it's in its own interests and our allies may be unhappy about it but sometimes that's the way alliances are.
This is absolutely critical for the United States to arrest the decline of its own position in the Middle East and ultimately I can't imagine that a
declining United States is good for either Israel or Saudi Arabia.
CURNOW: Flynt Leverett, thank you so much for your analysis. We're going to leave it at that. Thank you.
Well, let's go to Washington now, for an update from our White House correspondent, Michelle Kosinski.
Hi, there, Michelle. President Obama will be long out of office before any reasonable assessments will be made as to whether this gamble has paid off,
for what kind of impact it has on his legacy.
But that doesn't stop people from talking about his legacy, does it?
MICHELLE KOSINSKI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely not. And you almost can't tell this story without mentioning that and all of the activity coming out
of the White House in this second term. I mean, even just within the last few weeks, also notable, opening up relations with Cuba, something that
hasn't happened in 50 years, now this. It's another big victory for the White House.
But you also have to look at the flip side. The critics of this deal are accusing the president, the White House, of trying to get a deal at any
cost because of legacies. And they're saying that what remained is a bad deal simply because the president wanted to get this done -- Robyn.
CURNOW: So talking about what happens next, he faces an uphill battle from a skeptical Congress. But he has already said that's not going to impact
him.
KOSINSKI: What this raises is an enormous debate and the president even was careful to say today that he welcomes the robust debate. He knows
that's what he's going to get.
Almost immediately once this was announced and some of the details came out, we heard some strong words from those opposed, Republicans saying that
this is a grievous, dangerous mistake. It's only going to embolden Iran and that the president abandoned his original goals.
Some were saying the original goal was to dismantle Iran's nuclear program and now it's just managing the proliferation. The real questions out there
are leaving Iran with some nuclear capability, isn't that just setting the stage for trouble down the road?
However, it really is Congress that has the uphill battle in reality now, though, because they don't get an up-or-down vote on the deal itself; the
president can implement this deal. What Congress has to do by law now -- in this bipartisan bill that was passed just a few months ago -- is they
get a chance to review the deal for 60 days. The White House has to provide all kinds of supplementary information and certification that Iran
is doing things correctly and then Congress will vote on whether or not to lift those sanctions that Congress specifically imposed on Iran.
And those are important. However, let's say that Congress does vote to keep those sanctions on. And remember, removing the sanctions was a key
part of getting Iran to participate in this in the first place. Well, the president would simply veto that action by Congress.
So Congress would need a two-thirds majority in both houses to keep those sanctions in place and even if they did attain that, which many feel would
be impossible, then the rest of the world would have taken their sanctions away from Iran and fully doing business with Iran and implementing the
deal. But the U.S. would still have these congressional sanctions in place.
So you can see that, by that point, the sanctions wouldn't even really be effective, at least not to the point that they are today. So many see
Congress as having the uphill battle here. But that's not going to stop the debate from raging, of course -- Robyn.
CURNOW: And the Speaker John Boehner's also been saying some things.
What does he have to say?
KOSINSKI: Right, absolutely, that this deal isn't exactly going to do what it set out to do. But the White House is insisting, with all these
criticisms out there, they're well prepared and have an answer for everything, that the goal here is simply to prevent Iran from attaining a
nuclear weapon. Of course the worry is that even though it's retaining some of its nuclear program, even though that's supposed to be only for
peaceful purposes --
[10:40:00]
KOSINSKI: -- and there's going to be a lot of eyes on what they're doing, the critics believe that, well, 10 or 15 years down the road when the deal
expires, essentially, isn't Iran still going to be in a position to rush toward a nuclear weapon if it wants to?
The White House, though, contends that when you look at 15 years down the road, we're still in a better place regarding nuclear risk from Iran than
we are today -- Robyn.
CURNOW: OK. Thank you so much for that, Michelle Kosinski at the White House.
The Iran nuclear deal set off some swings in the oil market. Let's go to Maggie Lake for that in New York.
Hi, there, Maggie.
MAGGIE LAKE, CNN HOST: Hi, Robyn. Yes, we've seen a little bit of volatility in oil. As you can imagine, when you saw those prices drop
initially when word of the deal came down, Brent was down more than 2 percent. But they seem to be drifting back.
If you take a look, Brent, you can see down but only by 0.25 percent. You might expect it to be down a lot more. A couple things going on with the
short term. First of all, some of this was already priced into the market. We've seen global oil prices under pressure.
Also there is this caution as traders realize this has to get through Congress and we're already hearing a lot of pushback, as you were just
talking about with Michelle.
And finally also recognition that this oil is not going to exactly hit the market tomorrow. Some is in reserves ready to go but it's going to take a
little bit more time and industry will need investments.
All of that factoring into the price action. But no doubt about it, Robyn, when you look at the longer term, this is going to put downward pressure
and you can see where oil prices have been going as this deal is going to put downward pressure, a lot more oil on a market that is already
oversupplied. There's just not enough demand to keep up. So you're looking definitely at oil that is going to trend down and especially as
this progresses.
CURNOW: And what does all that mean for the global economy then?
LAKE: Well, overall, it should be good news. The IMF last time we saw this drop says that it should be a tailwind for the global economy. But
there are going to be winners and losers. If you are a country that imports oil, like Japan and China, this is good news. If you're a
consumer, as these lower oil prices translate into lower gasoline and petrol prices, that is good news.
However, if you're an oil producing nation that's been struggling, this is not going to be good news. There's going to be further pressure on your
budget -- think Russia, Venezuela, which is really struggling with their economy; Nigeria, even other OPEC nations are all fighting for market
share. It's going to pressure them.
And even here in the U.S., the consumer's such a big part that should be good news but the energy sector likely to see more pain and just today,
Robyn, JPMorgan Chase says it's going to increase its loan reserves because they're anticipating bankruptcies and defaults in that area if we continue
to see prices go lower. So a little bit of a mixed bag but overall it should help boost the economy.
CURNOW: And what does this mean for business then? Are the planes, the business class seats to Tehran going to be full of people from Russia,
France, England -- everywhere?
(CROSSTALK)
CURNOW: Listen, there's all sorts of opportunity here now. How is that going to play out?
LAKE: Absolutely. We expect that to happen. And to a certain extent, a lot of people have been putting contingency plans together already. You're
going to see a lot of interest coming from business. They have been eyeing this market, waiting to get in.
First, of course, going to come from the energy sector but we expect car companies, global commercial aerospace, think Boeing, Airbus, to be
interested there.
The list goes on. Frankly, even appliances, anything that can cater to the Iranian consumer that they haven't had a chance to get in. This is an
economy that's been shut off for the better part of a decade. So the opportunities are large. But remember, this is a very political situation.
You heard all the rhetoric.
So imagine those companies are going to be cautious but certainly looking at this as an opportunity -- Robyn.
CURNOW: OK. We'll leave it at that. Maggie Lake in New York, thank you so much.
Now in Mexico, an intensified push to find an escaped drug lord. Coming up, police hunt for the man known as "Shorty" as authorities put out a
(INAUDIBLE) for his capture.
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CURNOW (voice-over): NASA scientists break out into cheers after a spacecraft completes a historic flyby of Pluto and its five moons. Check
out this image of Pluto. It's the first time a spacecraft has flown over the icy dwarf planet and now scientists are anxiously waiting for more
data.
They have to release images from the close encounter on Wednesday.
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CURNOW: It's one of the most anticipated books of all time, with pre- orders through the roof and bookstores opening at midnight, Harper Lee's second novel, "Go Set a Watchman," is out today after 55 years of literary
silence from the author.
Lee wrote the Pulitzer Prize-winning 1960 novel, "To Kill a Mockingbird." The book is hailed as an American classic in part because of its treatment
of the country's racial tensions. Lee actually wrote her new novel before she wrote "Mockingbird," but it's just been published now.
And early reviews reveal that Lee's new book has a shocking twist for one of the best-loved characters from "To Kill a Mockingbird." CNN's Clare
Sebastian looks at the curiosity and controversy of this literary find and why it took so long to bring the book to light.
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REESE WITHERSPOON, ACTOR (voice-over): "Since Atlanta, she had looked out the dining-car window with a delight almost physical. Over her breakfast
coffee, she watched the last of Georgia's hills recede and the red earth appear."
CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The first words of Harper Lee's "Go Set a Watchman," narrated by actress Reese Witherspoon, an early
taste of what was actually the first draft of "To Kill a Mockingbird," one of the world's most beloved novels.
Harper Lee actually wrote while living right here on this very stretch of road on New York's Upper East Side in the 1950s. For almost six decades,
"Go Set a Watchman" was abandoned. Its release may redefine her legacy.
Marja Mills is the author of "The Mockingbird Next Door," the story of 18 months spent living at close quarters with Harper Lee, who had by then
moved back to Alabama with her sister, Alice. She says she never expected Lee to publish again.
MARJA MILLS, AUTHOR: Nell Harper Lee herself -- Nell Harper, as she's known in her hometown -- had said to a friend, for example, that there were
two reasons. One was she wouldn't want to go through all that publicity again for all the money in the world and, two, that she had said what she
had to say in "To Kill a Mockingbird" and wouldn't say it again.
SEBASTIAN (voice-over): She didn't need to say it again. "To Kill a Mockingbird" has sold more than 40 million copies to date, becoming a 1962
Hollywood hit.
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GREGORY PECK, "ATTICUS FINCH": You never really understand a person until you consider things from his point of view.
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SEBASTIAN (voice-over): Now generations of readers are faced with a new side to their favorite characters. Early reviews revealing Atticus, a
lawyer who heroically defended a black man, had racist leanings. One reviewer called it "the toppling of idols."
MILLS: People have such deep feeling for those characters and are so anxious to know what has become of them, these 20 years or so later, and at
the same time, people have their own thoughts about what should have happened to those characters.
SEBASTIAN (voice-over): Still, curiosity is making this the publishing event of the year. HarperCollins says its their most pre-ordered book
ever. It's at the top of the Amazon best seller list and boxes are being kept under extra security at this Barnes & Noble in New York.
The company expects "Go Set a Watchman" to be their number one seller of 2015. Harper Lee, now 89, is living in an assisted care facility after a
stroke. A new chapter in her literary career, though, is just beginning -- Clare Sebastian, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CURNOW: Look forward to reading that.
Well, just ahead, the latest on the search for a notorious Mexican drug lord, El Chapo continues to confound authorities after his audacious prison
escape. We've the latest from the scene of that escape. That's next.
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CURNOW: Authorities in Mexico are offering a nearly $4 million reward for the capture of the escaped drug kingpin known as El Chapo. A recent
picture of Joaquin Guzman has been released. There it is. The leader of the powerful Sinaloa cartel broke out of prison for a second time over the
weekend.
Mexico's interior ministry says Guzman likely had help from the inside. Our Polo Sandoval joins us from outside the prison where El Chapo escaped,
about 90 kilometers west of Mexico City.
Clearly he had a lot of help. What else do you know? Any more details coming out about this very audacious prison escape?
POLO SANDOVAL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Robyn. A lot of help and also frankly a lot of time. We are now hearing from experts who seem to
believe that this -- really the planning and execution process of this massive excavation procedure took up to a year to take place.
This is coming now as there are new concerns and also just frustrations of the people, not only in this small community outside of Mexico City, but
also throughout the country, serious questions now being raised, especially after the director of the prison here was taken off the job and also
federal prosecutors here in Mexico are taking a closer look at several of the employees, confirming some of these suspicions here that there was
potentially some involvement there from the inside.
Keep in mind, Robyn, this is a country where corruption at the official level runs rampant, at all levels of government. So now one of the
questions here is how high did it truly go, how did nobody notice that that massive tunnel that was up to 1,500 meters long, that started at this
prison, actually come to be?
CURNOW: Indeed, so many questions. Thanks so much, Polo Sandoval there, outside the prison.
A reminder of our top story this hour: it took two years of negotiations and multiple deadline extensions, but Iran and six world powers finally
have that landmark nuclear deal. It happened this morning in Vienna. The deal will lift crippling economic sanctions in exchange for Iran limiting
its nuclear activities.
The presidents of the U.S. and Iran each addressed their nations after the deal was announced.
[10:55:00]
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: In a worst-case scenario, Iran violates the deal, the same options that are available to me today
will be available to any U.S. president in the future.
And I have no doubt that 10 or 15 years from now, the person who holds this office will be in a far stronger position with Iran further away from a
weapon and with the inspections and transparency that allow us to monitor the Iranian program.
For this reason, I believe it would be irresponsible to walk away from this deal.
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HASSAN ROUHANI, IRANIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): In order to respect the red lines and to have the goals that we wish to have, a
remarkable effort was put into the talks by Iranian diplomats, by Iranian legal experts, by Iranian economic experts and by Iranian nuclear
scientists in the first -- in the early days of the negotiations.
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CURNOW: Well, that does it for us here at the INTERNATIONAL DESK on this historic day for Iran and its relations with the rest of the world.
Now we are expecting to hear from John Kerry, who sat down with CNN's Christiane Amanpour, anytime now. So stick around for that. Also we're
expected to hear from Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif. He's expected to speak.
So all of that coming up on "CONNECT THE WORLD" with Becky Anderson. That's coming public next. But I'm Robyn Curnow. In the meantime, thanks
for watching.
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