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Inside Politics

Democratic Presidential Candidates Woo Voters in Seven States; Interview With Joe Trippi

Aired February 01, 2004 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST: Barnstorming across three time zones, candidates woo voters in seven states. Who needs to win, who may do (ph) home? We have the latest polls.
Former Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi goes public. Why he left, and can the grassroots movement continue without him. My CNN exclusive interview ahead.

And we've been counting the campaign money. Who's in the money? We'll tell straight ahead.

ANNOUNCER: Live from South Carolina, this is INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY.

WOODRUFF: Hello. I'm Judy Woodruff in Charleston. And welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY, live from South Carolina.

Well, politics, as you know, doesn't take weekends off, and neither do we. Especially two days before a string of important election contests. It is now February, a month of key battles across the United States. Seventeen states are holding Democratic primaries or caucuses this month. On Tuesday, there are key showdowns in seven of them: Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, here in South Carolina, New Mexico and North Dakota.

We begin with some New poll numbers in three of the Tuesday battleground states. And if these numbers hold up, John Kerry could likely cement his status as the front-runner. But there's good news -- some good news, too, for John Edwards.

In a New CNN-"Los Angeles Times" poll, Kerry has a big lead among likely voters in Missouri. Thirty-seven percent of respondents in this Show-Me State backed the Senator from Massachusetts. Eleven percent support Edwards. Howard Dean in third place with seven percent.

In Arizona, Kerry also leads the pack with twenty-nine percent. Wesley Clark is in second place with twenty-two percent, followed by Dean with 13 percent in the Grand Canyon State. But here in South Carolina, a big lead for John Edwards. The senator from North Carolina leads the pack with thirty-two percent. Twenty percent of likely voters support Kerry. Clark is in third place with eight percent.

So those are the numbers. Now let's turn behind the numbers to see what these polls mean for the candidates.

CNN political analyst and "Los Angeles Times" reporter Ron Brownstein is right here with me next to the CNN Election Express.

First of all, Ron, why is Kerry looking so strong?

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Judy, when you look inside these polls, there are two words that are the key for Kerry: electability and capability. In all three states, even in South Carolina where he trails, he leads among voters who say their top priority is finding a candidate who can beat Bush.

And he also runs extremely well when we asked voters to measure these candidates on three different dimensions of the readiness to be president. Who's ready to be commander in chief? Who has the best temperament to be president. And who can most bring change to Washington? In all three, he runs well on all three dimensions. He's the only candidate who can say that.

WOODRUFF: And what about Howard Dean? What do you see with his movement after the losses in Iowa and New Hampshire?

BROWNSTEIN: Howard Dean at this point is the inverse of John Kerry. There are enormous doubts in the electorate about his readiness to be president after all of the events of the last month. No more than one in 10 voters in each of these states picked him as the candidate who is most qualified to be commander in chief. No more than one in 14 said he had the best temperament to be president. So he clearly has a lot of repair work to do on the threshold issue of whether voters will consider him as a plausible president, not just a plausible nominee.

WOODRUFF: And Ron, talk about John Edwards. We're in the state where he was born. What do you see here? Clearly, our poll and your poll shows him doing well. But is he doing that well?

BROWNSTEIN: Right. Two answers. One from the poll, one from the stump.

In the poll, one thing that's striking is that John Kerry is actually running even with John Edwards in South Carolina among Democrats. But it's an open primary, as you know. Independents can vote here as well. And that's where John Edwards has his big lead, three to one.

When you're out with John Edwards, the argument really is empathy and connection. He is really stressing his southern roots, his small town upbringing. He is saying, I am one of you. That's great, but you can't be born in all 50 states. So John Edwards is probably going to need a stronger, broader argument to contrast with John Kerry, even if he does win here, to move forward and really become a threat to Kerry's lead.

WOODRUFF: And what about Wesley Clark? I mean, here's somebody who says he's been spending in these states that are coming up.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: What do you see behind his numbers? Especially in Arizona, where he's doing well.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, first of all, I think what's ominous for Clark here in South Carolina, as in New Hampshire, is he's been unable to hold the ground that he took once other candidates entered the field. He was doing well in the polls here, just as he was in New Hampshire, but he's finding his support erode as other candidates present more viable choices. That's got to be an ominous trend for the campaign.

In Arizona, he is beginning to develop a little more of a distinctive appeal, a little more moderate, a little more downscale. He still has a presence there. We have him in a strong second place. But clearly, I think they feel they have to win somewhere on Tuesday in order to continue this campaign. Right now, Oklahoma probably looks like the best bet for him.

WOODRUFF: Big decisions to be made on Tuesday. All right. Ron Brownstein, thanks very much. We appreciate it.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

WOODRUFF: Well, there was more good news in Missouri today for John Kerry. He has now picked up two important endorsements. In backing Kerry, the "Kansas City Star" says, "Out of the crowded Democratic field this year, John Kerry emerges as the top choice. A war hero and a serious thinker who is well qualified to serve in the Oval Office, the senator could mount a serious challenge to the Republican ticket this fall."

And one of Missouri's most popular politicians is also supporting Kerry. Former Governor Roger Wilson says that Kerry has proven his personal courage under fire. And he is praising Kerry on defense issues.

Joe Lieberman's faltering campaign is getting a boost today right here in South Carolina. "The State" newspaper in the capital city, Columbia, is endorsing the Connecticut Democrat. "He has formidable experience in elective office, including a track record of building coalitions across party lines to get things done. A skill almost forgotten in today's barbed discourse."

The major newspaper in South Carolina's upstate, "The Greenville News," also is supporting Lieberman. It says that he's the "best choice for South Carolina based on his views and votes on national defense, homeland security, trade, education, taxes, and other fiscal issues."

Big bucks are in play this election season. There's nothing new in that. All the candidates were required by law to file a report by midnight detailing their financial activities from the fourth quarter of 2003. So let's do the numbers.

The report filed with the Federal Election Commission shows the Bush-Cheney campaign had raised nearly $133 million. All the Democrats combined brought in, though still in the race, about $117 million. And an interesting note, Howard Dean started the new year with just under $10 million in the bank. But according to sources, he is now down to about $2 million to $3 million.

The FEC report shows seven Democratic candidates spent more in the fourth quarter than they raised. Edwards, Lieberman, Gephardt, Kerry, Sharpton, Dean and Braun. Wesley Clark spent almost all of the money he raised last quarter 99.9 percent. Dennis Kucinich, who is trailing in the polls, spent less than 41 percent of what he raised last quarter.

Special interests, that has been a prominent issue this weekend, especially for front-runner John Kerry.

CNN's Kelly Wallace reports from a campaign stop in the Sooner State.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): One of the toughest days yet for the new front-runner who tried to stay on message in Kansas City.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: All those lobbyists, all those powerful interests that meet in secret in the White House, they hear us. We're coming. They're going. And we don't want the door to hit them on the way out.

WALLACE: Kerry had to spend most of Saturday in damage control mode. This after a study by a nonpartisan watchdog group concluded that the Massachusetts senator has received more money from lobbyists than any current or former senator in 15 years.

KERRY: I'll take the second seat to nobody in this race with respect to my lifetime fights against powerful interests.

WALLACE: Kerry says he is the only U.S. senator currently serving who chose not to take any large political action committee donations in his Senate campaigns. But Howard Dean, the former front- runner, seized on the controversy.

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: IT turns out we've got more than one Republican in the Democratic race. I've already said that I thought Wes Clark was a Republican, and now it apparently is John Kerry that has the same financing habits.

WALLACE: Asked about those comments, Kerry paused and then seemed to be looking for an apology.

KERRY: Governor Dean has, in the course of this campaign, made a number of comments that he's had to apologize to other candidates for. And I would respectfully suggest that that may be just one more of them.

WALLACE: The campaign had hoped this to be the message of the day... GOV. JENNIFER GRANHOLM (D), MICHIGAN: I am pleased to endorse Senator Kerry for president of the United States.

WALLACE: Kerry, picking up another endorsement, the backing of Michigan's governor, whose state's upcoming caucuses represent the biggest delegate prize so far.

(on camera): But just days before a crucial contest on Tuesday, the Kerry campaign was forced to respond to attacks. And any day a campaign is playing defense, not offense, is a day when its desired message may not be getting out.

Kelly Wallace, CNN, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: And now the Sunday edition of our "Campaign News Daily."

Former Vice President Al Gore returns to Michigan to campaign for Howard Dean, whom he has endorsed. Gore visits four churches in Detroit. The 2000 Democratic standard bearer led a large rally for Dean Thursday at Michigan State University in East Lansing. Michigan supported Gore four years ago against George Bush.

The Reverend Al Sharpton focuses his efforts here on South Carolina. He visits three churches today, two in Aiken and one in North Augusta. Tomorrow he begins a bus tour through the Palmetto State.

Senator John Edwards returns to his native state to campaign today. On Friday, South Carolina band Hootie & the Blowfish threw a concert in Columbia to support Edwards. Yesterday, the candidate was in Oklahoma and New Mexico.

And why won't John Kerry and John Edwards make a friendly wager on the Super Bowl tonight? Kerry's New England Patriots battle Edwards' Carolina Panthers. Advisers tell the senators that they could alienate voters by betting on the game. We wonder, where is the competitive spirit?

Up next, my exclusive interview with former Howard Dean campaign manager, Joe Trippi. I'll ask him why he chose to leave the staff and his thoughts on Dean's future.

And later, Terry McAuliffe has a warning for some Democratic candidates: win on Tuesday or step aside. The story behind that story later this hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: The Howard Dean campaign so far seems undaunted by weak showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. The former Vermont governor is actually focusing his resources on the February 7 caucuses in Michigan and Washington State.

CNN's Candy Crowley followed the Dean campaign to the Pacific Northwest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Howard Dean!

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Howard Dean!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Howard Dean!

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Who could ask for many more? Tucson in the winter, a revved up good-sized crowd in the park, and a front-page story on who has given how much to John Kerry over the past 15 years of election cycles.

DEAN: We are not going to beat George Bush by nominating somebody who is the handmaiden of special interests.

CROWLEY: The details of Kerry's fund-raising history is the sort of scrutiny Dean's campaign figured would happen when the spotlight turned to the new front-runner. It is part of a strategy which envisions Dean moving forward until he is the last standing alternative to Kerry. "A clear shot at him," said a Dean strategist. "We want the comparison."

DEAN: All that time that John Kerry was taking those hundreds of thousands of dollars from lobbyists, we were getting 89 percent of our contributions from ordinary Americans in small donations. This is how you take the country back from ordinary people, not by nominating yet another special interest clone in Washington.

CROWLEY: Enthused by the subject matter, the asterisk, turned front-runner, turned underdog hopped the press bus for a (UNINTELLIGIBLE) with the airport. He was shocked and stunned and more.

DEAN: I couldn't believe it. I was just furious. I don't mind those guys (UNINTELLIGIBLE) my message, because that means really I was successful. But I do mind saying one thing and doing another.

That's what George Bush did when he got the presidency. He said he was going to run as a compassionate conservative. He wasn't compassionate, nor was he conservative about money. And Senator Kerry is saying one thing and doing another. That's one thing I'll never put up with.

CROWLEY: As Dean pressed from Tucson to Seattle, his campaign crunched the numbers. In an era of disappointing results and diminished funds, he talks now about racking up delegates, cherry picking in politically fertile states. Sometimes he sounds like a man who has pivoted from a presidential campaign to a movement.

DEAN: We need to fundamentally change this party. We need to change this country. It's not going to happen if I quit,

CROWLEY (on camera): Dean denies he's running now for leverage within the party. "We intend to win," he says. And while it may seem against the odds, when Dean arrives in Seattle to see a crowd that lines up around the block and then some, and fills two overflow rooms, it gives him reason to believe.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Seattle, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: The man credited with much of Howard Dean's early successes is no longer leading the campaign. Joe Trippi resigned after the New Hampshire results were final. Roy Neel, who once served as Vice President Al Gore's chief of staff, has been named to head the Dean effort.

Joe Trippi is in Washington this morning.

Joe Trippi, good to see you. I first want to ask you, is the governor still trying to talk you into coming back to the campaign, or has he given up?

JOE TRIPPI, FMR. DEAN CAMPAIGN MANAGER: We talked a night or two ago, and I still have great affection for him and respect for him. And I still believe he's going to be the nominee. But I think you can't have two captains of a ship, and I think I made the right decision to step aside and let Roy Neel have a steady hand and do what he needs to do to get the governor the nomination.

WOODRUFF: So you're not still advising Governor Dean?

TRIPPI: No. I every once in a while call up and tell somebody in Burlington what I'm thinking. But I haven't -- I'm not at all involved officially, and I've gone. And I've got my first couple of nights' sleep in a long time. And that feels pretty good.

WOODRUFF: Yes. Joe, what about the Deaniacs, so to speak? Have you had to talk many of them in not jumping ship?

TRIPPI: Not at all. I mean, this campaign really is -- and their efforts, the grassroots efforts that created this campaign, really are aimed at changing America's -- not just presidents, but America's politics forever. You look at -- look at the choice that the people are being left with now. George Bush has raised more money from special interests than anybody. John Kerry has raised more money from -- paid lobbyists than any Senator now or former 15 years.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you about that.

TRIPPI: No, but Judy, it's important, because that's the choice people are being left with. And then we wonder why 50 percent of the American people don't vote. The Dean campaign is the only way out.

WOODRUFF: But what I...

TRIPPI: I'm sorry.

WOODRUFF: But what I want to ask you is that, Governor Dean ran as an outsider, he's railing against the special interests. But he's just brought on to run his campaign, somebody who was a major Washington insider, a big lobbyist for the telecom industry. What does that do to his message?

TRIPPI: Not much. I don't believe anybody -- I don't believe it matters who the campaign manager is of that campaign. You know, me or anybody else.

I mean, this campaign is made up -- the governor said it, 89 percent of the contributors are people who gave $25, $30, $40, the American people working together to change this process. I believe that's really, really important. And this is a campaign that gave this party its voice. I mean, look, the governor has showed huge courage over and over again in this campaign. And he'll do it again.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you, though, about those big-name endorsements, starting with Al Gore back in December. Did that backfire, to have the insurgent candidate look like he was being embraced by the establishment?

TRIPPI: No, not at all. I mean, I think Al Gore's endorsement said, hey, there's a new and different way to bring people into the process. There's a new and different way to bring people into participating in politics again, and a new and different way to make our party competitive. And I'm going to embrace that new and different way and ask people to really pay attention to Howard Dean. And if you want to change this country, get involved with his campaign.

Now, what then happened, though, yes, when Gore endorsed us, the rest of the candidates decided, we've got to kill Howard Dean right now. The press put the scrutiny, rightfully so, that you put on somebody emerging who is as the front-runner. And that really did slow us down and hurt us quite a bit. But the factory mains, the Dean campaign is the last chance the American people have to take their government back, in my opinion.

WOODRUFF: Right. Joe Trippi, there's talk, there's even anger among people supporting Governor Dean about where the money went, the $44 million, $45 million raised. There's only a couple of million left, apparently.

There's talk about your own firm having gotten several million in the final quarter of last year. But mainly people are saying, where did it go? Was that money wasted, a lot of it?

TRIPPI: No, not at all. I mean, one thing is, I led the campaign. My heart is with the 500,000, 600,000 people who are working out there to change this country.

We really made sure that we used every dollar that we could to effectively run a 50-state campaign, which is what we were doing. The fact is that we didn't have to compete just against the Democratic candidates. We had the Republican committees running ads against us in New Hampshire.

We had to respond to those attacks. We had a 527 committee that no one still knows who formed the thing, running hundreds of thousands of dollars against us in Iowa. We had to respond to those attacks as well.

But we weren't running just to -- and then John Kerry writes himself a $6.4 million check, bringing himself back from the dead. We had to compete with that. He writes one check for $6.4 million, we had people across this country contributing and helping out.

WOODRUFF: I hear you.

TRIPPI: And that's how it went.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you, also, about something that one of your major endorsers, the SEIU, the Service Employees International Union, the head of that union, Andy Stern, has said that Governor Dean needs to win a primary on February the 3rd, or he's out of the picture. Governor Dean is saying he doesn't need to do that. He can wait.

Is Andy Stern wrong?

TRIPPI: Well, first of all, I think Andy Stern showed a lot of courage when he and the SEIU endorsed the governor. I think -- and I'm grateful for that. I think -- as Americans should be, because of the standing they took.

I think that history will show that winning these early states doesn't matter. What these early states are really about are winnowing the field down until there's a stark choice. And I believe the stark choice is going to be John Kerry, a guy who took more money from lobbyists than any other senator in the last 15 years, and Howard Dean. Someone who's leading hundreds of thousands of Americans who are giving small amounts to take their money back.

WOODRUFF: In other words...

TRIPPI: When you get that clarity, then I believe you're going to see a two-person race that's really going to be about how we're going to change this country and about who's ready to lead a real change in America politics and get some things done, like health care. We're not going to get health care done unless we get that process changed.

WOODRUFF: I hear you. All right. I hear you essentially not agreeing with Andy Stern.

Joe Trippi, thank you so much for driving in to Washington from your farm in Maryland this morning. We appreciate it. Very good to see you. Thanks a lot.

TRIPPI: Thank you. It's good to see you, too.

WOODRUFF: Thank you.

Still ahead, marathon men. Seven candidates racing across the country to court as many voters as they can. Are they making a convincing case? We'll ask the Democratic Party chairs of three must- win states.

And later...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Things not looking good for Dennis Kucinich. In New Hampshire, he was beaten out by margin of error.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: ... no politician is safe from our late-night laughs. Stay with us for the week's highlights.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: And now a campaign flashback to February 19, 2000. Governor George W. Bush won the South Carolina primary, stopping John McCain's campaign in its tracks. McCain opponents rallied after the Arizona senator's victory in New Hampshire, accusing him of everything from hypocrisy to fathering an illegitimate child, which was obviously false.

It is seven candidates and seven states in just two days from now. But political insiders are especially interested in three of them: South Carolina, Oklahoma and Missouri.

From St. Louis, May Scheve is Democratic Party chair in Missouri. In Oklahoma City, Jay Parmley heads the DNC there -- the Democratic State Committee, we should say. And here with me, Joe Erwin of South Carolina's Democratic Party.

Joe Erwin, I'm going to start with you. The polls are showing this is the one state where John Edwards is giving John Kerry a run for his money. How do you see the lay of the land? I know you're talking to people all the time.

JOE ERWIN, SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIR: Sure, Judy. And I think there's some accuracy there.

John Edwards is a native son of south Carolina, a senator from a neighboring state. They've invested a lot of their resources here in terms of his personal visits to South Carolina, campaign advertising. And they've built a terrific staff here, and they've been at it for a very long period of time.

WOODRUFF: So you see it competitive here?

ERWIN: I think it's competitive, and I think it's still wide open. The last poll I saw -- I didn't see Ron's polling numbers, but we've still got a large undecided vote here.

WOODRUFF: "Los Angeles Times" poll.

ERWIN: Right. So we've still got a lot of undecided voters. And voter turnout will be important. And there's a lot of work being done there. It's still up for grabs. WOODRUFF: All right. May Scheve, to you in Missouri. So much momentum for John Kerry coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire, some big endorsements for Kerry in your state. How does it look in Missouri?

MAY SCHEVE, MISSOURI DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIR: I think that the polls may be a little bit deceiving. They show Senator Kerry up, but I think there's still a very, very large block of uncommitted voters. With Congressman Gephardt out of the race, people really didn't have a second choice. They've had very little time to look and try to figure out who they want to go with.

So I think the undecided vote is still pretty heavy out there.

WOODRUFF: And Jay Parmley, what about in Oklahoma? Same thing? A lot of undecided? The polls there showing Wesley Clark doing better and possibly challenging Kerry. How do you see it?

JAY PARMLEY, OKLAHOMA DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIR: Yes, Judy. The polls here do have Wesley Clark leading by about eight percentage points. John Kerry's really come in the last few days and closing that gap with John Edwards right on -- right behind him. And there's still about 22, 25 percent undecided, and I think this race is really wide open.

The difference is, on Tuesday -- Wesley Clark has a large staff. John Edwards has a large staff that's been working here for months. And John Kerry has essentially just been playing here in the last week or two. But he has great momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire. So we'll see how all this plays out on Tuesday.

WOODRUFF: Joe Erwin, what's going to make a difference here? I mean, you -- this is a big military state. You've got John Kerry with his veteran background, Wesley Clark was a general. But again, you've got the native son.

ERWIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: What is going to make the difference when it comes down to it?

I think that a lot of things will count for different voters, Judy.

You know, this is a state -- and we've talked before. First in the south primary, large African-American turnout. How large will that turnout be and where will they go? You know, a lot of people thought early that Al Sharpton would get that. He's campaigned very enthusiastically here and well. But, you know, then you've got Jim Clyburn endorsing Senator Kerry, which is a big endorsement.

WOODRUFF: Clyburn, the African-American congressman.

ERWIN: Right. The only African American elected congressman from our state.

So, you know, there's a lot of tug between these candidates. And you've got Clark, who's got good military credentials, and Senator Kerry -- his war record is being brought up and being played very effectively in his new advertising here.

WOODRUFF: All right. Let's go back to May Scheve. What is going to make the difference in Missouri?

SCHEVE: Well, Judy, there aren't a lot of people here swoshing, and there's not a big ground game going on here. I think ads are going to make a big difference. Some of the candidates have crisscrossed our large state of Missouri here in the last couple of days.

I think -- I think what's really going to make the difference is people are really excited about getting out and voting difference the current administration. I think momentum is going to be a big factor here in the state of Missouri.

And we're also looking, unfortunately, to a big weather system coming in with snow and ice. So those all combined, I think it's going to be a very interesting turnout and a very interesting outcome here in the state of Missouri on Tuesday.

WOODRUFF: And, again, Jay Parmley in Oklahoma, you said it's wide open. I think some people would look at that and say, Well, do you really mean that? You don't really mean any one of these seven could win?

PARMLEY: No, I think the -- I think the top three right now, General Clark, Senator Edwards and Senator Kerry could all easily end up winning this primary on Tuesday. It's really that close. I mean, just the difference of seven or eight percentage points.

And really, the ground game, the media -- I mean, you cannot turn on the television here without seeing an ad, which is really first for us being this early and being really important in this nomination process. So the media has been great coverage. These candidates have crisscrossed our state. We had three of them here yesterday for huge rallies all across Oklahoma.

And we'll just see on Tuesday. Does the -- you know, does the media advertising wars along with the ground game, you know, how does that really pay off for these three candidates?

WOODRUFF: Right. We're going to have to leave it there. Jay Parmley, Democratic chair in Oklahoma. May Scheve in Missouri, Joe Irwin here in South Carolina. All three of you, great to see you again. Thanks for being with us this Sunday morning.

(CROSSTALK)

WOODRUFF: Coming up next, the -- thank you.

And coming up next, the hour's top stories including the latest on the stampede at the hajj.

And then -- living and dying by the McAuliffe rule. The Democratic national chairman issues an ultimatum to the candidates. Our Bill Schneider has the details when INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

WOODRUFF: Welcome back to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY in Charleston.

Well, many say the South Carolina primary is a must-win for Senator John Edwards. He said that himself. And he's told CNN's Frank Buckley it's going to be a -- quote -- "very close dogfight."

Frank is with us now from Columbia -- not too far away from where I am -- he is at the state capitol.

Hello, Frank.

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning there, Judy.

We're at a church here -- predominantly African-American church, in Columbia right now -- at the Bible Way Church. The African- American community, as you just heard a moment ago, very important in the vote here in South Carolina on primary day -- a third to a half of the vote expected to be black on primary day.

Senator Edwards intends to stay here in South Carolina between now and Tuesday, but this weekend, yesterday, he took a marathon trip that took him to three states outside of South Carolina. He ended his day in Missouri -- in Kansas City, Missouri, last night. Hundreds of supporters turning out for him there. It was only his second trip to Missouri because Missouri was Dick Gephardt country. Then Gephardt dropped out, and everyone has rushed in there.

Senator Edwards began his day in Albuquerque, New Mexico. It was his sixth trip to New Mexico yesterday. That's more than any other candidate. A bit of a logistical hiccup there -- Senator Edwards' charter plane was held up, delayed in New Mexico at the airport for an hour. The senator and all of the traveling press had to undergo a TSA security check. All prohibited items like scissors were confiscated, including Senator Edwards' pocketknife.

And finally, Senator Edwards also visited Oklahoma yesterday. He's been there 14 times during his campaign. Again, more than any other candidate. Edwards appealed to union workers there with a message on the economy and jobs.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EDWARDS: The starting place in doing something about it is to fight for our jobs and create jobs, to stand up against trade agreements like NAFTA that have been so damaging to the economy in this area.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE) EDWARDS: We know very well what free trade is. How about a little fair trade? That's what America needs.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUCKLEY: Edwards considers Oklahoma his second priority state. It appears the first priority state, right here in South Carolina. And as you said, Judy, Senator Edwards saying he must win here to continue his candidacy. But he also tells us that he expects to win here -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: All right. Frank Buckley, thanks very much. I was having a little trouble hearing you. I'm hoping our audience could hear. Thanks, Frank, very much.

Well, with seven states at stake, political insiders are hesitant to predict when a candidate will decide that the time has come to say good-bye. It appears that someone else is ready to make the decision for him.

CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, has "The Story Behind the Story."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): Primaries are a killing field. Their purpose is to kill off candidates and get their bodies off the field as quickly as possible so the party can close ranks around the winner. But what do you do if the bodies won't leave the field?

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: At what point do you say, You know what? I can't go on?

REP. DENNIS KUCINICH (D-OH), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'd say probably after I take the oath of office and get ready to do the job as president. That's when the campaign ends.

SCHNEIDER: Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe has come up with a rule to speed the process along.

TERRY MCAULIFFE, DNC CHAIRMAN: On the morning of February 4, if you are a Democratic candidate for president and you haven't won one of those nine contests, I would assume at that point you really need to assess your candidacy.

SCHNEIDER: That's why so much is riding on Tuesday's vote. Every candidate is looking for a win somewhere.

CLARK: Well, I think we are going to win some of these states.

SCHNEIDER: Wesley Clark's best shot -- Oklahoma.

LIEBERMAN: Candidates who run for president are very optimistic people. So I intend to win some.

SCHNEIDER: He's got high hopes for Delaware.

EDWARDS: So I feel very good about South Carolina and these subsequent states. I....

SCHNEIDER: He'd better, because South Carolina's a must-win state for native son John Edwards.

And Howard Dean? Not a state on Tuesday's calendar looks strong for him. The momentum is with John Kerry everywhere.

What if Dean wakes up Wednesday morning and finds he still hasn't won anywhere? He'll become the undead, haunting the campaign, searching for someplace to swoop down upon the unsuspecting front- runner.

DEAN: We are running a 50-state campaign. Of course we're going to make priority decisions about where to put our advertising dollars. But we have a field in every single one of these states.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: Dean's new campaign manager is now threatening a guerrilla war, going right up to the convention. There are two possibilities if that happens.

One is it could work. It's never worked before, but it could happen if John Kerry -- if he's the front-runner -- shows some unexpected vulnerabilities.

The other is, it could be a nightmare scenario for the Democratic Party, endless, bitter sniping right up until the convention, exactly what the McAuliffe rule was supposed to prevent -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: That's right. That was what it was supposed to prevent. So we'll see.

All right. Bill, thank you very much.

Straight ahead: campaign cash -- the latest numbers are in. We'll find out who's flush and who's not in our "Morning Grind."

Plus...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAY LENO, HOST, THE TONIGHT SHOW: I'm wearing my new Joe Lieberman watch. Problem is, it stops running after New Hampshire. That's the trouble.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: The comedians are having more fun at the candidates' expense. Late-night laughs coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) WOODRUFF: There are, in fact, two races going on for the Democratic nomination. There's, of course, the race for votes, and then there's the race to raise money. The Federal Election Commission has issued its latest reports on who's got how much in the bank.

On the money and politics trail, CNN's political editor, John Mercurio. He's the editor of CNN's "Morning Grind," updated Monday through Friday on our Web site, cnn.com.

Hello, John -- joining us today from Atlanta. The question on everybody's mind right now is how did Howard Dean spend all of that money -- over $40 million? What have you learned?

JOHN MERCURIO, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Well, the numbers just came in at midnight last night. Robert Yoon (ph), our political research director, literally stayed up all night, crunching them.

And here's what we have. Howard Dean looks like he spent about $5.3 million on ads, media ads, including in states like Texas where, obviously, there's not a very competitive Democratic primary. Spent 2.6 million on direct mail on outreach to Hispanics. One point eight million on salaries. A lot of those salaries are now being cut for about two weeks. One point four million on taxes. A little bit less on transportation, trying to get people from place to place. Only $870,000 on computers, which I think is interesting, considering the return that they got on the Internet in terms of fund-raising and exposure to the kind of campaign they ran.

One note, I think, is interesting, too.

WOODRUFF (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

MERCURIO: Joe Trippi wouldn't address your question earlier, Judy, about the -- about his salary. His firm, however, Trippi, McMahon and Squire, took in $5.2 million during the past three months -- $5.2 million. That's more than Lieberman, Edwards, Sharpton and Moseley Braun raised. That's about $1 million more than they raised during those three months. So somehow I think Joe Trippi financially is going to survive.

WOODRUFF: Yes.

John, let's talk about the burn rate that shows how quickly these candidates are spending their money. Who's literally got a hole in their pocket right now?

MERCURIO: Well, it's hard to say because I think January was probably the busiest month, and Dean's burn rate during the month was probably much higher. However, during the past three months -- the last quarter -- John Edwards actually -- excuse me -- burned through -- through his wallet significantly faster than both John Kerry and than Howard Dean. You see the numbers on the screen.

Again, I think the numbers will show that Howard Dean's burn rate in January was much higher. Notably, though, George Bush's burn rate at this point is a low 40 percent. So a lot of money left in George Bush's bank account.

WOODRUFF: Of course, he's lucky enough to have no opponent, unlike -- unlike these Democrats.

MERCURIO: Absolutely.

WOODRUFF: All right. John Mercurio, CNN's political editor, thanks very much.

MERCURIO: Thank you, Judy.

WOODRUFF: And still to come -- thanks.

WOODRUFF: Still to come, Tuesday could be make-or-break time for a couple of candidates. A campaign sweepstakes preview from three reporters who have been watching the candidates closely, watching the voters and the polls as well.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: We've talked to the politicians and the politicos. Now let's hear from the correspondents who are covering these campaigns.

With me now, Jeff Zeleny, who is with The Chicago Tribune; Schuyler Kropf, who is a reporter for The Charleston Post and Courier; and joining us from Chicago, Jodi Wilgoren of The New York Times.

Jodi, very quickly, to you first. You have a story today about what's going on inside the Dean campaign. Are they really hopeful that they can pull this off, if they don't win any campaign -- I'm sorry, any state on Tuesday?

JODI WILGOREN, NEW YORK TIMES: They're of two minds, Judy. I mean, they clearly have changed their view since the devastating losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. They know they're no longer, you know, confident of victory. But they do have this late-surging plan, counting on Wisconsin and Washington and Maine and Michigan. And they really believe in it. So they believe they have a chance, but I know -- I think they know that it's not the chance that they thought they had a month ago.

WOODRUFF: All right. Schuyler Kropf, here in South Carolina, that's your sense? I mean, the polls mostly have Edwards up, but Kerry close in a couple of them. What do you think?

SCHUYLER KROPF, CHARLESTON POST AND COURIER: Well, everything's about organization. And Edwards is in the state, he's been in the state, he's from here. He's been on the ground longer. Kerry's been around, basically, for the last two weeks. It would be hard for him to play catch-up the way he needs to.

WOODRUFF: So you -- so you're saying you expect Edwards to...

KROPF: I'm saying Edwards is by far the best organized on the ground. WOODRUFF: All right.

Jeff Zeleny, you've been with all these campaigns. What are you hearing inside the Edwards -- Clark -- I'm especially interested in what's going on inside the Clark campaign right now.

JEFF ZELENY, CHICAGO TRIBUNE: Well, the next -- the next 48 hours really are critical in this. Some think it's do-or-die time.

Clark, strikingly is not in South Carolina. He's a son of the South. He's on television, but he's not here. He's focusing on Oklahoma. And that is where they think they can win. And the next 48 hours are critical for their campaign, their candidacy.

And the other thing -- one thing I'm struck by, as I've traveled around South Carolina for a couple days is, people seem very willing to accept a senator from Massachusetts because they think he can win. And his -his commercials -- I'm struck by the number of people I've talked to who say he's a Vietnam veteran and they really like what they see in John Kerry. So I think it's an open race on Tuesday.

WOODRUFF: All right. I want to come back to you, Jodi Wilgoren.

I mean, has -- has Howard Dean basically given up on these seven states up next Tuesday?

WILGOREN: Pretty much. I mean, he is still campaigning in Arizona and New Mexico, where he's counting on both the fact that they've had early voting and on the heavily Hispanic populations. But he has not been in South Carolina since Friday. And he's not really counting on the other states. He was spending a lot of time in Wisconsin and Washington state in hopes of pulling out victories there.

WOODRUFF: And back to you, Schuyler Kropf, here in South Carolina. You're talking to folks here in the Edwards campaign. If he's able to pull this off with a significant win on Tuesday, where do they go from here?

KROPF: Well, things shut down now (ph). We'll have to wait and see. There's no place else for him in the South for a long time. So he'll have to stake a fight somewhere else.

WOODRUFF: Any idea, Jeff, where that would be?

ZELENY: One thing they're looking at right now is Virginia and Tennessee. They're hoping that South Carolina will be a lifeline...

WOODRUFF: On the 10th, which is a week later, right.

ZELENY: Right. February 10 will be very key for them.

Of course, Michigan comes between here and Virginia and Tennessee. It's on February 7. But they're really hoping to make it to Virginia and Tennessee.

WOODRUFF: Very quickly, Jeff Zeleny -- Joe Lieberman. We haven't talked about him. What are you hearing inside his campaign?

ZELENY: What I'm hearing inside his campaign from some of his supporters -- they're looking for him next week to -- if he does not have a good showing someplace on Tuesday night -- that next week he may announce what many people think is the inevitable, and perhaps get out of the race. If he does not do well on Tuesday. So watch for him next week.

WOODRUFF: All right. Well, we don't want to be premature, but...

ZELENY: Right.

WOODRUFF: ...we have to talk about what we're hearing inside these campaigns.

Jeff Zeleny, Schuyler Kropf , Jodi Wilgoren, thank you all three. We appreciate it.

Well, counting cash for the candidates -- I should say comedians cash in on the candidates. A new collection of ate late-night laughs. It is must-see INSIDE POLITICS.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: It wouldn't be the election season without the late- night comics having fun at the candidates' expense.

Here's this week's sampling.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LEON: Even though we don't know who the Democratic nominee will be, already it looks like Bush and Kerry starting to go after each other.

There's President Bush there. You see. Throws one back. It gets a little vicious.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JON STEWART, THE DAILY SHOW: Where there's a winner, there must also be losers.

DEAN: We really are going to win this nomination, aren't we?

CROWD: Go Wes, go!

EDWARDS: This momentum is extraordinary!

LIEBERMAN: The people of New Hampshire put me in the ring.

STEWART: When did our elections become the Special Olympics? You're not all winners. Not everybody gets a hug. You guys got crushed.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LENO: I'm wearing my new Joe Lieberman watch. The problem is it stops running after New Hampshire. That's the trouble.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CRAIG KILBORN, THE LATE LATE SHOW: Things not looking good for Dennis Kucinich. In New Hampshire, he was beaten out by margin of error.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LENO: Wesley Clark -- anybody for him?

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

LENO: Well, you know, this guy is interesting because he's spoken out both in favor and against the decision to go to war with Iraq. In fact, this weekend, in South Carolina, he's going to be debating himself. So that (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Don't you love it? They are so hard on those poor guys.

Well, that's INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY for February the 1st. Thanks for joining us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





States; Interview With Joe Trippi>


Aired February 1, 2004 - 10:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST: Barnstorming across three time zones, candidates woo voters in seven states. Who needs to win, who may do (ph) home? We have the latest polls.
Former Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi goes public. Why he left, and can the grassroots movement continue without him. My CNN exclusive interview ahead.

And we've been counting the campaign money. Who's in the money? We'll tell straight ahead.

ANNOUNCER: Live from South Carolina, this is INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY.

WOODRUFF: Hello. I'm Judy Woodruff in Charleston. And welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY, live from South Carolina.

Well, politics, as you know, doesn't take weekends off, and neither do we. Especially two days before a string of important election contests. It is now February, a month of key battles across the United States. Seventeen states are holding Democratic primaries or caucuses this month. On Tuesday, there are key showdowns in seven of them: Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, here in South Carolina, New Mexico and North Dakota.

We begin with some New poll numbers in three of the Tuesday battleground states. And if these numbers hold up, John Kerry could likely cement his status as the front-runner. But there's good news -- some good news, too, for John Edwards.

In a New CNN-"Los Angeles Times" poll, Kerry has a big lead among likely voters in Missouri. Thirty-seven percent of respondents in this Show-Me State backed the Senator from Massachusetts. Eleven percent support Edwards. Howard Dean in third place with seven percent.

In Arizona, Kerry also leads the pack with twenty-nine percent. Wesley Clark is in second place with twenty-two percent, followed by Dean with 13 percent in the Grand Canyon State. But here in South Carolina, a big lead for John Edwards. The senator from North Carolina leads the pack with thirty-two percent. Twenty percent of likely voters support Kerry. Clark is in third place with eight percent.

So those are the numbers. Now let's turn behind the numbers to see what these polls mean for the candidates.

CNN political analyst and "Los Angeles Times" reporter Ron Brownstein is right here with me next to the CNN Election Express.

First of all, Ron, why is Kerry looking so strong?

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Judy, when you look inside these polls, there are two words that are the key for Kerry: electability and capability. In all three states, even in South Carolina where he trails, he leads among voters who say their top priority is finding a candidate who can beat Bush.

And he also runs extremely well when we asked voters to measure these candidates on three different dimensions of the readiness to be president. Who's ready to be commander in chief? Who has the best temperament to be president. And who can most bring change to Washington? In all three, he runs well on all three dimensions. He's the only candidate who can say that.

WOODRUFF: And what about Howard Dean? What do you see with his movement after the losses in Iowa and New Hampshire?

BROWNSTEIN: Howard Dean at this point is the inverse of John Kerry. There are enormous doubts in the electorate about his readiness to be president after all of the events of the last month. No more than one in 10 voters in each of these states picked him as the candidate who is most qualified to be commander in chief. No more than one in 14 said he had the best temperament to be president. So he clearly has a lot of repair work to do on the threshold issue of whether voters will consider him as a plausible president, not just a plausible nominee.

WOODRUFF: And Ron, talk about John Edwards. We're in the state where he was born. What do you see here? Clearly, our poll and your poll shows him doing well. But is he doing that well?

BROWNSTEIN: Right. Two answers. One from the poll, one from the stump.

In the poll, one thing that's striking is that John Kerry is actually running even with John Edwards in South Carolina among Democrats. But it's an open primary, as you know. Independents can vote here as well. And that's where John Edwards has his big lead, three to one.

When you're out with John Edwards, the argument really is empathy and connection. He is really stressing his southern roots, his small town upbringing. He is saying, I am one of you. That's great, but you can't be born in all 50 states. So John Edwards is probably going to need a stronger, broader argument to contrast with John Kerry, even if he does win here, to move forward and really become a threat to Kerry's lead.

WOODRUFF: And what about Wesley Clark? I mean, here's somebody who says he's been spending in these states that are coming up.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: What do you see behind his numbers? Especially in Arizona, where he's doing well.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, first of all, I think what's ominous for Clark here in South Carolina, as in New Hampshire, is he's been unable to hold the ground that he took once other candidates entered the field. He was doing well in the polls here, just as he was in New Hampshire, but he's finding his support erode as other candidates present more viable choices. That's got to be an ominous trend for the campaign.

In Arizona, he is beginning to develop a little more of a distinctive appeal, a little more moderate, a little more downscale. He still has a presence there. We have him in a strong second place. But clearly, I think they feel they have to win somewhere on Tuesday in order to continue this campaign. Right now, Oklahoma probably looks like the best bet for him.

WOODRUFF: Big decisions to be made on Tuesday. All right. Ron Brownstein, thanks very much. We appreciate it.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

WOODRUFF: Well, there was more good news in Missouri today for John Kerry. He has now picked up two important endorsements. In backing Kerry, the "Kansas City Star" says, "Out of the crowded Democratic field this year, John Kerry emerges as the top choice. A war hero and a serious thinker who is well qualified to serve in the Oval Office, the senator could mount a serious challenge to the Republican ticket this fall."

And one of Missouri's most popular politicians is also supporting Kerry. Former Governor Roger Wilson says that Kerry has proven his personal courage under fire. And he is praising Kerry on defense issues.

Joe Lieberman's faltering campaign is getting a boost today right here in South Carolina. "The State" newspaper in the capital city, Columbia, is endorsing the Connecticut Democrat. "He has formidable experience in elective office, including a track record of building coalitions across party lines to get things done. A skill almost forgotten in today's barbed discourse."

The major newspaper in South Carolina's upstate, "The Greenville News," also is supporting Lieberman. It says that he's the "best choice for South Carolina based on his views and votes on national defense, homeland security, trade, education, taxes, and other fiscal issues."

Big bucks are in play this election season. There's nothing new in that. All the candidates were required by law to file a report by midnight detailing their financial activities from the fourth quarter of 2003. So let's do the numbers.

The report filed with the Federal Election Commission shows the Bush-Cheney campaign had raised nearly $133 million. All the Democrats combined brought in, though still in the race, about $117 million. And an interesting note, Howard Dean started the new year with just under $10 million in the bank. But according to sources, he is now down to about $2 million to $3 million.

The FEC report shows seven Democratic candidates spent more in the fourth quarter than they raised. Edwards, Lieberman, Gephardt, Kerry, Sharpton, Dean and Braun. Wesley Clark spent almost all of the money he raised last quarter 99.9 percent. Dennis Kucinich, who is trailing in the polls, spent less than 41 percent of what he raised last quarter.

Special interests, that has been a prominent issue this weekend, especially for front-runner John Kerry.

CNN's Kelly Wallace reports from a campaign stop in the Sooner State.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): One of the toughest days yet for the new front-runner who tried to stay on message in Kansas City.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: All those lobbyists, all those powerful interests that meet in secret in the White House, they hear us. We're coming. They're going. And we don't want the door to hit them on the way out.

WALLACE: Kerry had to spend most of Saturday in damage control mode. This after a study by a nonpartisan watchdog group concluded that the Massachusetts senator has received more money from lobbyists than any current or former senator in 15 years.

KERRY: I'll take the second seat to nobody in this race with respect to my lifetime fights against powerful interests.

WALLACE: Kerry says he is the only U.S. senator currently serving who chose not to take any large political action committee donations in his Senate campaigns. But Howard Dean, the former front- runner, seized on the controversy.

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: IT turns out we've got more than one Republican in the Democratic race. I've already said that I thought Wes Clark was a Republican, and now it apparently is John Kerry that has the same financing habits.

WALLACE: Asked about those comments, Kerry paused and then seemed to be looking for an apology.

KERRY: Governor Dean has, in the course of this campaign, made a number of comments that he's had to apologize to other candidates for. And I would respectfully suggest that that may be just one more of them.

WALLACE: The campaign had hoped this to be the message of the day... GOV. JENNIFER GRANHOLM (D), MICHIGAN: I am pleased to endorse Senator Kerry for president of the United States.

WALLACE: Kerry, picking up another endorsement, the backing of Michigan's governor, whose state's upcoming caucuses represent the biggest delegate prize so far.

(on camera): But just days before a crucial contest on Tuesday, the Kerry campaign was forced to respond to attacks. And any day a campaign is playing defense, not offense, is a day when its desired message may not be getting out.

Kelly Wallace, CNN, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: And now the Sunday edition of our "Campaign News Daily."

Former Vice President Al Gore returns to Michigan to campaign for Howard Dean, whom he has endorsed. Gore visits four churches in Detroit. The 2000 Democratic standard bearer led a large rally for Dean Thursday at Michigan State University in East Lansing. Michigan supported Gore four years ago against George Bush.

The Reverend Al Sharpton focuses his efforts here on South Carolina. He visits three churches today, two in Aiken and one in North Augusta. Tomorrow he begins a bus tour through the Palmetto State.

Senator John Edwards returns to his native state to campaign today. On Friday, South Carolina band Hootie & the Blowfish threw a concert in Columbia to support Edwards. Yesterday, the candidate was in Oklahoma and New Mexico.

And why won't John Kerry and John Edwards make a friendly wager on the Super Bowl tonight? Kerry's New England Patriots battle Edwards' Carolina Panthers. Advisers tell the senators that they could alienate voters by betting on the game. We wonder, where is the competitive spirit?

Up next, my exclusive interview with former Howard Dean campaign manager, Joe Trippi. I'll ask him why he chose to leave the staff and his thoughts on Dean's future.

And later, Terry McAuliffe has a warning for some Democratic candidates: win on Tuesday or step aside. The story behind that story later this hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: The Howard Dean campaign so far seems undaunted by weak showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. The former Vermont governor is actually focusing his resources on the February 7 caucuses in Michigan and Washington State.

CNN's Candy Crowley followed the Dean campaign to the Pacific Northwest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Howard Dean!

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Howard Dean!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Howard Dean!

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Who could ask for many more? Tucson in the winter, a revved up good-sized crowd in the park, and a front-page story on who has given how much to John Kerry over the past 15 years of election cycles.

DEAN: We are not going to beat George Bush by nominating somebody who is the handmaiden of special interests.

CROWLEY: The details of Kerry's fund-raising history is the sort of scrutiny Dean's campaign figured would happen when the spotlight turned to the new front-runner. It is part of a strategy which envisions Dean moving forward until he is the last standing alternative to Kerry. "A clear shot at him," said a Dean strategist. "We want the comparison."

DEAN: All that time that John Kerry was taking those hundreds of thousands of dollars from lobbyists, we were getting 89 percent of our contributions from ordinary Americans in small donations. This is how you take the country back from ordinary people, not by nominating yet another special interest clone in Washington.

CROWLEY: Enthused by the subject matter, the asterisk, turned front-runner, turned underdog hopped the press bus for a (UNINTELLIGIBLE) with the airport. He was shocked and stunned and more.

DEAN: I couldn't believe it. I was just furious. I don't mind those guys (UNINTELLIGIBLE) my message, because that means really I was successful. But I do mind saying one thing and doing another.

That's what George Bush did when he got the presidency. He said he was going to run as a compassionate conservative. He wasn't compassionate, nor was he conservative about money. And Senator Kerry is saying one thing and doing another. That's one thing I'll never put up with.

CROWLEY: As Dean pressed from Tucson to Seattle, his campaign crunched the numbers. In an era of disappointing results and diminished funds, he talks now about racking up delegates, cherry picking in politically fertile states. Sometimes he sounds like a man who has pivoted from a presidential campaign to a movement.

DEAN: We need to fundamentally change this party. We need to change this country. It's not going to happen if I quit,

CROWLEY (on camera): Dean denies he's running now for leverage within the party. "We intend to win," he says. And while it may seem against the odds, when Dean arrives in Seattle to see a crowd that lines up around the block and then some, and fills two overflow rooms, it gives him reason to believe.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Seattle, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: The man credited with much of Howard Dean's early successes is no longer leading the campaign. Joe Trippi resigned after the New Hampshire results were final. Roy Neel, who once served as Vice President Al Gore's chief of staff, has been named to head the Dean effort.

Joe Trippi is in Washington this morning.

Joe Trippi, good to see you. I first want to ask you, is the governor still trying to talk you into coming back to the campaign, or has he given up?

JOE TRIPPI, FMR. DEAN CAMPAIGN MANAGER: We talked a night or two ago, and I still have great affection for him and respect for him. And I still believe he's going to be the nominee. But I think you can't have two captains of a ship, and I think I made the right decision to step aside and let Roy Neel have a steady hand and do what he needs to do to get the governor the nomination.

WOODRUFF: So you're not still advising Governor Dean?

TRIPPI: No. I every once in a while call up and tell somebody in Burlington what I'm thinking. But I haven't -- I'm not at all involved officially, and I've gone. And I've got my first couple of nights' sleep in a long time. And that feels pretty good.

WOODRUFF: Yes. Joe, what about the Deaniacs, so to speak? Have you had to talk many of them in not jumping ship?

TRIPPI: Not at all. I mean, this campaign really is -- and their efforts, the grassroots efforts that created this campaign, really are aimed at changing America's -- not just presidents, but America's politics forever. You look at -- look at the choice that the people are being left with now. George Bush has raised more money from special interests than anybody. John Kerry has raised more money from -- paid lobbyists than any Senator now or former 15 years.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you about that.

TRIPPI: No, but Judy, it's important, because that's the choice people are being left with. And then we wonder why 50 percent of the American people don't vote. The Dean campaign is the only way out.

WOODRUFF: But what I...

TRIPPI: I'm sorry.

WOODRUFF: But what I want to ask you is that, Governor Dean ran as an outsider, he's railing against the special interests. But he's just brought on to run his campaign, somebody who was a major Washington insider, a big lobbyist for the telecom industry. What does that do to his message?

TRIPPI: Not much. I don't believe anybody -- I don't believe it matters who the campaign manager is of that campaign. You know, me or anybody else.

I mean, this campaign is made up -- the governor said it, 89 percent of the contributors are people who gave $25, $30, $40, the American people working together to change this process. I believe that's really, really important. And this is a campaign that gave this party its voice. I mean, look, the governor has showed huge courage over and over again in this campaign. And he'll do it again.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you, though, about those big-name endorsements, starting with Al Gore back in December. Did that backfire, to have the insurgent candidate look like he was being embraced by the establishment?

TRIPPI: No, not at all. I mean, I think Al Gore's endorsement said, hey, there's a new and different way to bring people into the process. There's a new and different way to bring people into participating in politics again, and a new and different way to make our party competitive. And I'm going to embrace that new and different way and ask people to really pay attention to Howard Dean. And if you want to change this country, get involved with his campaign.

Now, what then happened, though, yes, when Gore endorsed us, the rest of the candidates decided, we've got to kill Howard Dean right now. The press put the scrutiny, rightfully so, that you put on somebody emerging who is as the front-runner. And that really did slow us down and hurt us quite a bit. But the factory mains, the Dean campaign is the last chance the American people have to take their government back, in my opinion.

WOODRUFF: Right. Joe Trippi, there's talk, there's even anger among people supporting Governor Dean about where the money went, the $44 million, $45 million raised. There's only a couple of million left, apparently.

There's talk about your own firm having gotten several million in the final quarter of last year. But mainly people are saying, where did it go? Was that money wasted, a lot of it?

TRIPPI: No, not at all. I mean, one thing is, I led the campaign. My heart is with the 500,000, 600,000 people who are working out there to change this country.

We really made sure that we used every dollar that we could to effectively run a 50-state campaign, which is what we were doing. The fact is that we didn't have to compete just against the Democratic candidates. We had the Republican committees running ads against us in New Hampshire.

We had to respond to those attacks. We had a 527 committee that no one still knows who formed the thing, running hundreds of thousands of dollars against us in Iowa. We had to respond to those attacks as well.

But we weren't running just to -- and then John Kerry writes himself a $6.4 million check, bringing himself back from the dead. We had to compete with that. He writes one check for $6.4 million, we had people across this country contributing and helping out.

WOODRUFF: I hear you.

TRIPPI: And that's how it went.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you, also, about something that one of your major endorsers, the SEIU, the Service Employees International Union, the head of that union, Andy Stern, has said that Governor Dean needs to win a primary on February the 3rd, or he's out of the picture. Governor Dean is saying he doesn't need to do that. He can wait.

Is Andy Stern wrong?

TRIPPI: Well, first of all, I think Andy Stern showed a lot of courage when he and the SEIU endorsed the governor. I think -- and I'm grateful for that. I think -- as Americans should be, because of the standing they took.

I think that history will show that winning these early states doesn't matter. What these early states are really about are winnowing the field down until there's a stark choice. And I believe the stark choice is going to be John Kerry, a guy who took more money from lobbyists than any other senator in the last 15 years, and Howard Dean. Someone who's leading hundreds of thousands of Americans who are giving small amounts to take their money back.

WOODRUFF: In other words...

TRIPPI: When you get that clarity, then I believe you're going to see a two-person race that's really going to be about how we're going to change this country and about who's ready to lead a real change in America politics and get some things done, like health care. We're not going to get health care done unless we get that process changed.

WOODRUFF: I hear you. All right. I hear you essentially not agreeing with Andy Stern.

Joe Trippi, thank you so much for driving in to Washington from your farm in Maryland this morning. We appreciate it. Very good to see you. Thanks a lot.

TRIPPI: Thank you. It's good to see you, too.

WOODRUFF: Thank you.

Still ahead, marathon men. Seven candidates racing across the country to court as many voters as they can. Are they making a convincing case? We'll ask the Democratic Party chairs of three must- win states.

And later...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Things not looking good for Dennis Kucinich. In New Hampshire, he was beaten out by margin of error.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: ... no politician is safe from our late-night laughs. Stay with us for the week's highlights.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: And now a campaign flashback to February 19, 2000. Governor George W. Bush won the South Carolina primary, stopping John McCain's campaign in its tracks. McCain opponents rallied after the Arizona senator's victory in New Hampshire, accusing him of everything from hypocrisy to fathering an illegitimate child, which was obviously false.

It is seven candidates and seven states in just two days from now. But political insiders are especially interested in three of them: South Carolina, Oklahoma and Missouri.

From St. Louis, May Scheve is Democratic Party chair in Missouri. In Oklahoma City, Jay Parmley heads the DNC there -- the Democratic State Committee, we should say. And here with me, Joe Erwin of South Carolina's Democratic Party.

Joe Erwin, I'm going to start with you. The polls are showing this is the one state where John Edwards is giving John Kerry a run for his money. How do you see the lay of the land? I know you're talking to people all the time.

JOE ERWIN, SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIR: Sure, Judy. And I think there's some accuracy there.

John Edwards is a native son of south Carolina, a senator from a neighboring state. They've invested a lot of their resources here in terms of his personal visits to South Carolina, campaign advertising. And they've built a terrific staff here, and they've been at it for a very long period of time.

WOODRUFF: So you see it competitive here?

ERWIN: I think it's competitive, and I think it's still wide open. The last poll I saw -- I didn't see Ron's polling numbers, but we've still got a large undecided vote here.

WOODRUFF: "Los Angeles Times" poll.

ERWIN: Right. So we've still got a lot of undecided voters. And voter turnout will be important. And there's a lot of work being done there. It's still up for grabs. WOODRUFF: All right. May Scheve, to you in Missouri. So much momentum for John Kerry coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire, some big endorsements for Kerry in your state. How does it look in Missouri?

MAY SCHEVE, MISSOURI DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIR: I think that the polls may be a little bit deceiving. They show Senator Kerry up, but I think there's still a very, very large block of uncommitted voters. With Congressman Gephardt out of the race, people really didn't have a second choice. They've had very little time to look and try to figure out who they want to go with.

So I think the undecided vote is still pretty heavy out there.

WOODRUFF: And Jay Parmley, what about in Oklahoma? Same thing? A lot of undecided? The polls there showing Wesley Clark doing better and possibly challenging Kerry. How do you see it?

JAY PARMLEY, OKLAHOMA DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIR: Yes, Judy. The polls here do have Wesley Clark leading by about eight percentage points. John Kerry's really come in the last few days and closing that gap with John Edwards right on -- right behind him. And there's still about 22, 25 percent undecided, and I think this race is really wide open.

The difference is, on Tuesday -- Wesley Clark has a large staff. John Edwards has a large staff that's been working here for months. And John Kerry has essentially just been playing here in the last week or two. But he has great momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire. So we'll see how all this plays out on Tuesday.

WOODRUFF: Joe Erwin, what's going to make a difference here? I mean, you -- this is a big military state. You've got John Kerry with his veteran background, Wesley Clark was a general. But again, you've got the native son.

ERWIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: What is going to make the difference when it comes down to it?

I think that a lot of things will count for different voters, Judy.

You know, this is a state -- and we've talked before. First in the south primary, large African-American turnout. How large will that turnout be and where will they go? You know, a lot of people thought early that Al Sharpton would get that. He's campaigned very enthusiastically here and well. But, you know, then you've got Jim Clyburn endorsing Senator Kerry, which is a big endorsement.

WOODRUFF: Clyburn, the African-American congressman.

ERWIN: Right. The only African American elected congressman from our state.

So, you know, there's a lot of tug between these candidates. And you've got Clark, who's got good military credentials, and Senator Kerry -- his war record is being brought up and being played very effectively in his new advertising here.

WOODRUFF: All right. Let's go back to May Scheve. What is going to make the difference in Missouri?

SCHEVE: Well, Judy, there aren't a lot of people here swoshing, and there's not a big ground game going on here. I think ads are going to make a big difference. Some of the candidates have crisscrossed our large state of Missouri here in the last couple of days.

I think -- I think what's really going to make the difference is people are really excited about getting out and voting difference the current administration. I think momentum is going to be a big factor here in the state of Missouri.

And we're also looking, unfortunately, to a big weather system coming in with snow and ice. So those all combined, I think it's going to be a very interesting turnout and a very interesting outcome here in the state of Missouri on Tuesday.

WOODRUFF: And, again, Jay Parmley in Oklahoma, you said it's wide open. I think some people would look at that and say, Well, do you really mean that? You don't really mean any one of these seven could win?

PARMLEY: No, I think the -- I think the top three right now, General Clark, Senator Edwards and Senator Kerry could all easily end up winning this primary on Tuesday. It's really that close. I mean, just the difference of seven or eight percentage points.

And really, the ground game, the media -- I mean, you cannot turn on the television here without seeing an ad, which is really first for us being this early and being really important in this nomination process. So the media has been great coverage. These candidates have crisscrossed our state. We had three of them here yesterday for huge rallies all across Oklahoma.

And we'll just see on Tuesday. Does the -- you know, does the media advertising wars along with the ground game, you know, how does that really pay off for these three candidates?

WOODRUFF: Right. We're going to have to leave it there. Jay Parmley, Democratic chair in Oklahoma. May Scheve in Missouri, Joe Irwin here in South Carolina. All three of you, great to see you again. Thanks for being with us this Sunday morning.

(CROSSTALK)

WOODRUFF: Coming up next, the -- thank you.

And coming up next, the hour's top stories including the latest on the stampede at the hajj.

And then -- living and dying by the McAuliffe rule. The Democratic national chairman issues an ultimatum to the candidates. Our Bill Schneider has the details when INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

WOODRUFF: Welcome back to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY in Charleston.

Well, many say the South Carolina primary is a must-win for Senator John Edwards. He said that himself. And he's told CNN's Frank Buckley it's going to be a -- quote -- "very close dogfight."

Frank is with us now from Columbia -- not too far away from where I am -- he is at the state capitol.

Hello, Frank.

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning there, Judy.

We're at a church here -- predominantly African-American church, in Columbia right now -- at the Bible Way Church. The African- American community, as you just heard a moment ago, very important in the vote here in South Carolina on primary day -- a third to a half of the vote expected to be black on primary day.

Senator Edwards intends to stay here in South Carolina between now and Tuesday, but this weekend, yesterday, he took a marathon trip that took him to three states outside of South Carolina. He ended his day in Missouri -- in Kansas City, Missouri, last night. Hundreds of supporters turning out for him there. It was only his second trip to Missouri because Missouri was Dick Gephardt country. Then Gephardt dropped out, and everyone has rushed in there.

Senator Edwards began his day in Albuquerque, New Mexico. It was his sixth trip to New Mexico yesterday. That's more than any other candidate. A bit of a logistical hiccup there -- Senator Edwards' charter plane was held up, delayed in New Mexico at the airport for an hour. The senator and all of the traveling press had to undergo a TSA security check. All prohibited items like scissors were confiscated, including Senator Edwards' pocketknife.

And finally, Senator Edwards also visited Oklahoma yesterday. He's been there 14 times during his campaign. Again, more than any other candidate. Edwards appealed to union workers there with a message on the economy and jobs.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EDWARDS: The starting place in doing something about it is to fight for our jobs and create jobs, to stand up against trade agreements like NAFTA that have been so damaging to the economy in this area.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE) EDWARDS: We know very well what free trade is. How about a little fair trade? That's what America needs.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUCKLEY: Edwards considers Oklahoma his second priority state. It appears the first priority state, right here in South Carolina. And as you said, Judy, Senator Edwards saying he must win here to continue his candidacy. But he also tells us that he expects to win here -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: All right. Frank Buckley, thanks very much. I was having a little trouble hearing you. I'm hoping our audience could hear. Thanks, Frank, very much.

Well, with seven states at stake, political insiders are hesitant to predict when a candidate will decide that the time has come to say good-bye. It appears that someone else is ready to make the decision for him.

CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, has "The Story Behind the Story."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): Primaries are a killing field. Their purpose is to kill off candidates and get their bodies off the field as quickly as possible so the party can close ranks around the winner. But what do you do if the bodies won't leave the field?

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: At what point do you say, You know what? I can't go on?

REP. DENNIS KUCINICH (D-OH), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'd say probably after I take the oath of office and get ready to do the job as president. That's when the campaign ends.

SCHNEIDER: Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe has come up with a rule to speed the process along.

TERRY MCAULIFFE, DNC CHAIRMAN: On the morning of February 4, if you are a Democratic candidate for president and you haven't won one of those nine contests, I would assume at that point you really need to assess your candidacy.

SCHNEIDER: That's why so much is riding on Tuesday's vote. Every candidate is looking for a win somewhere.

CLARK: Well, I think we are going to win some of these states.

SCHNEIDER: Wesley Clark's best shot -- Oklahoma.

LIEBERMAN: Candidates who run for president are very optimistic people. So I intend to win some.

SCHNEIDER: He's got high hopes for Delaware.

EDWARDS: So I feel very good about South Carolina and these subsequent states. I....

SCHNEIDER: He'd better, because South Carolina's a must-win state for native son John Edwards.

And Howard Dean? Not a state on Tuesday's calendar looks strong for him. The momentum is with John Kerry everywhere.

What if Dean wakes up Wednesday morning and finds he still hasn't won anywhere? He'll become the undead, haunting the campaign, searching for someplace to swoop down upon the unsuspecting front- runner.

DEAN: We are running a 50-state campaign. Of course we're going to make priority decisions about where to put our advertising dollars. But we have a field in every single one of these states.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: Dean's new campaign manager is now threatening a guerrilla war, going right up to the convention. There are two possibilities if that happens.

One is it could work. It's never worked before, but it could happen if John Kerry -- if he's the front-runner -- shows some unexpected vulnerabilities.

The other is, it could be a nightmare scenario for the Democratic Party, endless, bitter sniping right up until the convention, exactly what the McAuliffe rule was supposed to prevent -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: That's right. That was what it was supposed to prevent. So we'll see.

All right. Bill, thank you very much.

Straight ahead: campaign cash -- the latest numbers are in. We'll find out who's flush and who's not in our "Morning Grind."

Plus...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAY LENO, HOST, THE TONIGHT SHOW: I'm wearing my new Joe Lieberman watch. Problem is, it stops running after New Hampshire. That's the trouble.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: The comedians are having more fun at the candidates' expense. Late-night laughs coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) WOODRUFF: There are, in fact, two races going on for the Democratic nomination. There's, of course, the race for votes, and then there's the race to raise money. The Federal Election Commission has issued its latest reports on who's got how much in the bank.

On the money and politics trail, CNN's political editor, John Mercurio. He's the editor of CNN's "Morning Grind," updated Monday through Friday on our Web site, cnn.com.

Hello, John -- joining us today from Atlanta. The question on everybody's mind right now is how did Howard Dean spend all of that money -- over $40 million? What have you learned?

JOHN MERCURIO, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Well, the numbers just came in at midnight last night. Robert Yoon (ph), our political research director, literally stayed up all night, crunching them.

And here's what we have. Howard Dean looks like he spent about $5.3 million on ads, media ads, including in states like Texas where, obviously, there's not a very competitive Democratic primary. Spent 2.6 million on direct mail on outreach to Hispanics. One point eight million on salaries. A lot of those salaries are now being cut for about two weeks. One point four million on taxes. A little bit less on transportation, trying to get people from place to place. Only $870,000 on computers, which I think is interesting, considering the return that they got on the Internet in terms of fund-raising and exposure to the kind of campaign they ran.

One note, I think, is interesting, too.

WOODRUFF (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

MERCURIO: Joe Trippi wouldn't address your question earlier, Judy, about the -- about his salary. His firm, however, Trippi, McMahon and Squire, took in $5.2 million during the past three months -- $5.2 million. That's more than Lieberman, Edwards, Sharpton and Moseley Braun raised. That's about $1 million more than they raised during those three months. So somehow I think Joe Trippi financially is going to survive.

WOODRUFF: Yes.

John, let's talk about the burn rate that shows how quickly these candidates are spending their money. Who's literally got a hole in their pocket right now?

MERCURIO: Well, it's hard to say because I think January was probably the busiest month, and Dean's burn rate during the month was probably much higher. However, during the past three months -- the last quarter -- John Edwards actually -- excuse me -- burned through -- through his wallet significantly faster than both John Kerry and than Howard Dean. You see the numbers on the screen.

Again, I think the numbers will show that Howard Dean's burn rate in January was much higher. Notably, though, George Bush's burn rate at this point is a low 40 percent. So a lot of money left in George Bush's bank account.

WOODRUFF: Of course, he's lucky enough to have no opponent, unlike -- unlike these Democrats.

MERCURIO: Absolutely.

WOODRUFF: All right. John Mercurio, CNN's political editor, thanks very much.

MERCURIO: Thank you, Judy.

WOODRUFF: And still to come -- thanks.

WOODRUFF: Still to come, Tuesday could be make-or-break time for a couple of candidates. A campaign sweepstakes preview from three reporters who have been watching the candidates closely, watching the voters and the polls as well.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: We've talked to the politicians and the politicos. Now let's hear from the correspondents who are covering these campaigns.

With me now, Jeff Zeleny, who is with The Chicago Tribune; Schuyler Kropf, who is a reporter for The Charleston Post and Courier; and joining us from Chicago, Jodi Wilgoren of The New York Times.

Jodi, very quickly, to you first. You have a story today about what's going on inside the Dean campaign. Are they really hopeful that they can pull this off, if they don't win any campaign -- I'm sorry, any state on Tuesday?

JODI WILGOREN, NEW YORK TIMES: They're of two minds, Judy. I mean, they clearly have changed their view since the devastating losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. They know they're no longer, you know, confident of victory. But they do have this late-surging plan, counting on Wisconsin and Washington and Maine and Michigan. And they really believe in it. So they believe they have a chance, but I know -- I think they know that it's not the chance that they thought they had a month ago.

WOODRUFF: All right. Schuyler Kropf, here in South Carolina, that's your sense? I mean, the polls mostly have Edwards up, but Kerry close in a couple of them. What do you think?

SCHUYLER KROPF, CHARLESTON POST AND COURIER: Well, everything's about organization. And Edwards is in the state, he's been in the state, he's from here. He's been on the ground longer. Kerry's been around, basically, for the last two weeks. It would be hard for him to play catch-up the way he needs to.

WOODRUFF: So you -- so you're saying you expect Edwards to...

KROPF: I'm saying Edwards is by far the best organized on the ground. WOODRUFF: All right.

Jeff Zeleny, you've been with all these campaigns. What are you hearing inside the Edwards -- Clark -- I'm especially interested in what's going on inside the Clark campaign right now.

JEFF ZELENY, CHICAGO TRIBUNE: Well, the next -- the next 48 hours really are critical in this. Some think it's do-or-die time.

Clark, strikingly is not in South Carolina. He's a son of the South. He's on television, but he's not here. He's focusing on Oklahoma. And that is where they think they can win. And the next 48 hours are critical for their campaign, their candidacy.

And the other thing -- one thing I'm struck by, as I've traveled around South Carolina for a couple days is, people seem very willing to accept a senator from Massachusetts because they think he can win. And his -his commercials -- I'm struck by the number of people I've talked to who say he's a Vietnam veteran and they really like what they see in John Kerry. So I think it's an open race on Tuesday.

WOODRUFF: All right. I want to come back to you, Jodi Wilgoren.

I mean, has -- has Howard Dean basically given up on these seven states up next Tuesday?

WILGOREN: Pretty much. I mean, he is still campaigning in Arizona and New Mexico, where he's counting on both the fact that they've had early voting and on the heavily Hispanic populations. But he has not been in South Carolina since Friday. And he's not really counting on the other states. He was spending a lot of time in Wisconsin and Washington state in hopes of pulling out victories there.

WOODRUFF: And back to you, Schuyler Kropf, here in South Carolina. You're talking to folks here in the Edwards campaign. If he's able to pull this off with a significant win on Tuesday, where do they go from here?

KROPF: Well, things shut down now (ph). We'll have to wait and see. There's no place else for him in the South for a long time. So he'll have to stake a fight somewhere else.

WOODRUFF: Any idea, Jeff, where that would be?

ZELENY: One thing they're looking at right now is Virginia and Tennessee. They're hoping that South Carolina will be a lifeline...

WOODRUFF: On the 10th, which is a week later, right.

ZELENY: Right. February 10 will be very key for them.

Of course, Michigan comes between here and Virginia and Tennessee. It's on February 7. But they're really hoping to make it to Virginia and Tennessee.

WOODRUFF: Very quickly, Jeff Zeleny -- Joe Lieberman. We haven't talked about him. What are you hearing inside his campaign?

ZELENY: What I'm hearing inside his campaign from some of his supporters -- they're looking for him next week to -- if he does not have a good showing someplace on Tuesday night -- that next week he may announce what many people think is the inevitable, and perhaps get out of the race. If he does not do well on Tuesday. So watch for him next week.

WOODRUFF: All right. Well, we don't want to be premature, but...

ZELENY: Right.

WOODRUFF: ...we have to talk about what we're hearing inside these campaigns.

Jeff Zeleny, Schuyler Kropf , Jodi Wilgoren, thank you all three. We appreciate it.

Well, counting cash for the candidates -- I should say comedians cash in on the candidates. A new collection of ate late-night laughs. It is must-see INSIDE POLITICS.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: It wouldn't be the election season without the late- night comics having fun at the candidates' expense.

Here's this week's sampling.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LEON: Even though we don't know who the Democratic nominee will be, already it looks like Bush and Kerry starting to go after each other.

There's President Bush there. You see. Throws one back. It gets a little vicious.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JON STEWART, THE DAILY SHOW: Where there's a winner, there must also be losers.

DEAN: We really are going to win this nomination, aren't we?

CROWD: Go Wes, go!

EDWARDS: This momentum is extraordinary!

LIEBERMAN: The people of New Hampshire put me in the ring.

STEWART: When did our elections become the Special Olympics? You're not all winners. Not everybody gets a hug. You guys got crushed.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LENO: I'm wearing my new Joe Lieberman watch. The problem is it stops running after New Hampshire. That's the trouble.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CRAIG KILBORN, THE LATE LATE SHOW: Things not looking good for Dennis Kucinich. In New Hampshire, he was beaten out by margin of error.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LENO: Wesley Clark -- anybody for him?

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

LENO: Well, you know, this guy is interesting because he's spoken out both in favor and against the decision to go to war with Iraq. In fact, this weekend, in South Carolina, he's going to be debating himself. So that (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Don't you love it? They are so hard on those poor guys.

Well, that's INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY for February the 1st. Thanks for joining us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





States; Interview With Joe Trippi>