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Inside Politics

Polls: Dems Edge Shrinking in Voter Preference for Congress; May: "I Quite Like Watching NCIS"; Democrats Battle for Party's Soul With Fall Races Looming; Progressives Take Their Message to the Midwest; Conservative Campaign for Kavanaugh Targets Red-State Dems. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired July 23, 2018 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:30:00] JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: -- that's why you're seeing so many candidates saying vote for me, I'm with Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: President Trump needs fighters in the Senate. Fighters like Kevin Nicholson. Nicholson has a real plan to help Trump drain the swamp.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everyone says they're for Trump, but I'm the only candidate who's supported Donald Trump in the 2016 primary.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He is Kevin Cramer.

REP. KEVIN CRAMER (R), NORTH DAKOTA: I'm Kevin Cramer, candidate for Senate, and I proved this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: What else do we learn when we look at these numbers? One of the things we always watch is the congressional generic ballot. Who would you vote for today? Who do you want to control Congress if you had to vote today?

In the NBC/Wall Street Journal numbers, it was 10 points for the Democrats back in June. It's narrower to six points now. And again, be careful when you go month to month in polling, we're 100 days out.

But it's not a blowout anyway. It's a little closer for Republicans. You see the numbers up there now. It's 49 to 43. Now in July was 50- 40 a month ago. Is that --

AMY WALTER, NATIONAL EDITOR, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: It's not really statistically significant. Although, you know, look, Democrats would want to come into the midterm elections with double-digit leads on the generic ballot. But there were a couple other numbers that really struck me in this poll. It's that, the -- not only is the president doing better among Republicans, but the intensity, the support is as high as it's ever been. You know, more people not only dislike or disapprove of the president than approve of him, but the intensity of disapproval has always outnumbered the intensity of approval. That's still the case, but for the first time we're seeing those numbers really start to tick up among those people who say they support the president, they approve of the job he's doing. Twenty-nine percent say they strongly approve of what he's doing.

The independent number is the number that I spend a lot of time watching because independents in these last few midterm elections, especially the ones that were blowouts, '20 '06, '10, '14, the party who won had a double-digit lead, almost close to 20 points among independent voters. In this poll, Democrats lead on the congressional ballot by 20 points among independents.

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: That's so interesting. It is such an important thing to watch. But going back to the intensity of Republican support, you have -- that is so important to explaining what's going on in Washington. That's the whole story, actually, about what's going on.

When people ask over and over again, when the president says outrageous things, does outrageous things, where are the Republicans, why aren't they standing up to him? Because their constituents, the people who elect them, by and large support the president. And it is why the people who are most critical, openly critical, of the president are the ones heading for the door. They're retiring, and it's for the most part because they couldn't get elected in a Republican primary because the people who elect them don't like the criticism they're putting out there of the president. It is really important, and it is really illustrated --

KING: And it is why he stokes siege mentality on just about every issue, whether it's the Mueller investigation or (INAUDIBLE). He wants to keep his people with the pitchforks in hand to keep them motivated.

AYESHA RASCOE, WHITE HOUSE REPORTER, NPR: But what I wonder is does that get people to the ballot when president Trump is not on the ballot. Like, is it -- do you like --

KING: President Obama could answer that question for you.

RASCOE: Yes, exactly. Do you like President Trump enough to get out in the rain or whatever you have to do? Get off of work to go vote for this Republican who's kind of -- who's not Trump.

KING: I think that --

RASCOE: -- the poll suggests that they're not.

KING: Right. And I think that's a fascinating question because even more so than the Obama years, when you talk to Trump Republicans, they don't like Congress, even their own Congress. They have great disdain for the establishment, even their own establishment. So, will he be effective in getting them to turn out to help him essentially? Here's another number. We're an evenly divided country. That's not breaking news. We have been for some time. It sort of got a little bit more exacerbated shall we say in recent years.

But look at this question here. Republicans in Congress have been too close to Trump, 38 percent. Not close enough to Trump, 40 percent. Is there any question you could ask in America where you just don't get a divide like this?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, there's -- no.

WALTER: I think you now have gotten us to that place. And -- but I think that question is really important about who turns out to vote. And we've seen it in poll after poll after poll. When you ask voters how enthusiastic, how -- what's your intent, Democrats continue to have an advantage.

Sometimes it's bigger. Some polls it's smaller. And that's why we're going to pay a whole lot of attention to a special election coming up in a couple weeks in Ohio where we will see if these poll numbers actually translate to reality in terms of who's turning out and who's not.

We know that over the course of these special elections, Democrats have had an enthusiasm advantage. Is it going to continue, or is this spike in support showing that Republicans are, I think you said, they're coming home, it's getting closer to the election. And the more that they see the news media beating up on the president, the more it unites Republicans behind the president.

KING: It's a great point. We'll watch the special elections. As I said we're about to hit. By next week, we'll be inside 100 days and the environment tends to solidify.

[12:35:00] Hard thing to say in the volatile times we live in. But if it's a traditional midterm year, you tend to have a little better sense as you get inside two months or so. We'll see as we go. The White House just announcing Sarah Sanders will give a press briefing this afternoon. That's at 2 p.m. Eastern. Watch it live right her on CNN.

Up next for us, the British Prime Minister Theresa May reveals her favorite American T.V. show. Don't want to miss that, do you?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: Topping our political radar, the Senate votes on a new Veterans Affairs secretary today. Robert Wilkie, a Pentagon undersecretary was nominated after President Trump fired David Shulkin back in March. You might remember, the president initially was going to nominate the White House physician Ronnie Jackson, but he was forced to withdraw after allegations of workplace misconduct.

[12:40:04] In a highly unusual move, Senator Rand Paul says he'll meet with President Trump today and ask him to revoke the security clearance of John Brennan. He's the former CIA director who of course has been harshly critical of the critical. Senator Paul tweeting, "Is John Brennan monetizing his security clearance and making millions by devoting secrets to the media?"

Now, former intelligence officials typically maintain their high-level security clearance even after they leave their posts.

And don't miss this. The British Prime Minister Theresa May has a lot on her mind these days, Brexit, her relationship with President Trump, Europe, her own future. So what does she do to relax? Asked at an event in Newcastle, she said she likes to walk, cook, and watch a little bit of American T.V.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

THERESA MAY, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I have over 150 cookbooks so I spend quite a lot of time looking at cookbooks. And I have -- I do enjoy, if I get the time, watching -- I don't know anybody -- does anybody here know the American series "NCIS"? I quite like watching "NCIS" when I can.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: And?

WALTER: It's a top-rated American show, right? Isn't it always in the top of (INAUDIBLE) and ratings? So she has her finger on the pulse of American viewing habits.

KING: So the prime minister has domestic political trouble for telling the British people she watches American T.V.?

RASCOE: It's escapism, you know.

BASH: Who can blame her? It was a human moment. I mean, you know, the truth is we all watch good British T.V. so why shouldn't she watch American T.V.? I mean, everyone here watches "The Crown", right?

MICHAEL SHEAR, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, THE NEW YORK TIMES: Right. Actually, my favorite right now is a French drama called "The Bureau" which is about an espionage -- an espionage drama. Subtitled in English but great show.

BASH: "Billions, "Bash", "Goliath." anything that is not about what we do every day.

SHEAR: Watching "The Americans."

BASH: Yes, I love "The Americans" but --

KING: Wow, OK.

BASH: I started watching that before this current news cycle.

KING: I'm a huge fan of Monty Python which is of course prepared me for everything we have to go through everyday here. Up next, the Democrats think the climate is just right for a big blue wave come November. Question is, can they get out of their own way?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:46:26] KING: Welcome back. It is a raw time in Democratic politics, even as the party is upbeat about its midterm election chances. Some liberals love Bernie Sanders. Still think he got a raw deal back in 2016. Others see him as a show boat at a time when the party needs workhorses.

Elizabeth Warren is taking heat for, get this, not being sufficiently liberal. And with that ideological debate comes a generational fight too, from ambitious, younger House Democrats, for example. Nancy Pelosi calls them inconsequential. They beg to differ.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. SETH MOULTON (D), MASSACHUSETTS: Tim Ryan ran against her. He had an entire week, one week to campaign and a third of the caucus voted for him. So I don't think that's inconsequential. We need a uniter in our party. We can continue to have these narrow and divisive politics with our current leaders, or we can be -- we can find leaders who are going to really bring us together.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: It is interesting to watch. There are all these skirmishes within the Democratic family, even as the overall landscape looks pretty good. Is that normal?

WALTER: Yes, I think that's pretty normal. I think the question is not so much what does it mean for 2018. It's what it means for 2019 and 2020. Look, Democrats are completely united around all kinds of candidates to win the House, the Senate. They don't care. Conservative, liberal, wherever you are on the spectrum.

The biggest challenge of course is what's going to happen if Democrats take the House and Nancy Pelosi goes on as speaker. I met with a bunch of Democratic candidates for the House last week. Most of them are under 40, some of them are under 35. And a good number of the people that I met with, probably about a third, said they definitely were not voting for her. How many of those people win and how close the majority is tells you a lot about her chances.

BASH: Well, candidates, just among the challengers or candidates for open seats on the Democratic side, about 25 have made pledges not to vote for Nancy Pelosi. And that's not including the Seth Moultons and the others who are incumbents who have already said that they wouldn't vote for her.

But --

KING: Sorry to interrupt but in this, is there any conceivable projection where she wins by -- where the Democrats have a more than 25-seat margin after this election even if they have a big blue wave? WALTER: I mean, it could be that way. If they ever had 35 seats then that -- she might be able to hold on.

KING: Just barely hold on.

BASH: It would have to be a really big blue wave which has happened. I mean, we saw it in 2006 and the Republican side obviously in 2010. But, you know -- so the question -- look, she is, you know, she is a very, very astute politician and she sees the writing on the wall. It's really hard for her to imagine running and losing.

But regardless of that, I think you made a really important point. It's also the question of what happens when you really do need one leader and that you need a nominee for president of the United States. I interviewed the DNC chair over the weekend, who was saying that he welcomes all of these different voices and it's really good for the party. And it might be, but it also is what brought on Donald Trump on the Republican side because there were 17 candidates and the people who were very similar, they sort of canceled each other out.

So, you know, you have to say that when you're the chairman of the party, but when you look at the nuts and bolts, it's not that easy.

KING: Well, part of the reason there's so many candidates in these Democratic primaries is, people look at the Barack Obama example. He wasn't supposed to win, he became president. Donald Trump example, wasn't supposed to win, overtook -- within his party, overtook his party and is now president.

I'm interested though in the fight within the liberal movement, if you will, the progressive movement if you will. We did a segment yesterday on the program where we noted that Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went to Kansas. It's a big question.

[12:50:02] Can the Democrats sell Bernie sanders' AOC liberalism in the heartland? If you look at the House in district map, that's where the Republican majority is.

And I was hammered on Twitter by people saying, how dare you, how dare you say Bernie Sanders is the leader of the resistance. I didn't say that. I said they went out there as part of the resistance to make this case, and this is part of their case.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I), VERMONT: Whether you're in Kansas or the Bronx or in Vermont, we have common interests and common aspirations, and we have got to fight for an America that works for all of us, not just the one percent.

ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D), NEW YORK HOUSE CANDIDATE: This is about inspiring people to the polls, giving them something to vote for, creating hope for this nation. And knowing that so long as there are working class Americans who believe in a prosperous and just future, we will have hope no matter how red the district.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: The incoming was the resistance is women. The resistance is not Bernie Sanders. Is that a widely held view?

Is that Hillary Clinton supporters who are still mad at Bernie Sanders? Is it Democrats saying Bernie Sanders is still an independent he's not Democrat? Or is it just we live in feisty times?

RASCOE: I think that part of it is searching for the soul of the Democratic Party. And a lot of what I've heard in talking to different people involved in politics and organizers which is that they feel like the Democratic Party has taken certain groups for granted, including black Americans, other people of color. And they want to have more representation. So I think you're seeing part of that play out now.

SHEAR: It's also true that when Barack Obama took his message early on in the 2008 campaign, when he took it to Iowa and realized they could actually sell the idea of a black candidate named Barack Hussein Obama in Iowa, there was a revelation inside that campaign that, OK, this could actually work. And I think the Democratic Party is trying to figure out a version of that same question, which is can you take Bernie Sanders', you know, liberalism -- can you take that wing of the party and somehow sell it, find a way to sort of craft the message and find the right messenger to sell it in that part of the party.

KING: You're going to get in trouble for saying it's his wing of the party. Just trust me on that one.

BASH: Turn off your notifications.

KING: 106 days to go, it's a lot of fun -- it's actually lot of fun out there. We'll watch all these play out.

Up next, a commercial break where you just might see evidence of the latest flash point for Trump state Democrats.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:51:59] KING: Four Trump state Democratic senators are the targets in a new round of T.V. ads aimed at promoting the president's Supreme Court nominee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh. You may see those ads right here on CNN, right during this program. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Doug Jones in Alabama, Joe Donnelley in Indiana. They are the new targets, and they are viewed as the Democratic senators who might have the hardest time selling a no vote on Kavanaugh back home. A conservative group aligned with the White House hopes to ramp up the pressure.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So why won't Joe Donnelley commit to supporting Kavanaugh? Is he more interested in siding with Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren, the hooshers? Has he forgotten who he represents? Tell Joe Donnelley his vote on Kavanaugh is something you won't forget. (END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: It's a fascinating fight. This weekend, Democrats sounding a new alarm on Kavanaugh. Newly released documents from his questionnaire to the Senate show he questions the Supreme Court order that President Nixon turn over the Watergate recordings. Democrats say Kavanaugh is too fond of presidential power, and in their view, his views could impact the special counsel investigation if he gets to the high court.

It's so far a traditional Supreme Court fight, but because we have the election year, because you do have these Trump state Democrats, it's going to be pretty hard for Joe Donnelley, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Manchin, Doug Jones --

WALTER: But there's also going to be a lot more material yet to come, right. Don't they have something like 6,000 pages to go through. So we're going to see a lot of this stuff leaked out. It's going to put a whole lot of pressure when we talk about the real divide within the Democratic Party. That's a big -- that's going to be a big difficulty.

And the pressure is going to be intense. And it already is intense from their own party leadership. And what they are being told is vote no, we're going to work really hard to take over the majority in the fall in the Senate, and we'll get our way the next time. Those are lots of ifs.

KING: With that point, I just want to show you this DNC e-mail. Say no to the Kavanaugh nomination. You'll see the word "president" is misspelled. We did not do that, the Democratic Party did that.

How we -- the president of the United States often misspells names, the Democratic Party doing it here. Get an editor.

But this is the intensity you're talking about. They say, you know, he'll throw out ObamaCare, he'll overturn Roe v. Wade, he'll excuse Trump in the investigation.

They don't know not to be true. We don't know that he'll do it in the court. But that's what they believe based on earlier rulings and the like.

SHEAR: Yes. And I think the question is, the Democrats -- the four Democrats that you identified, they have -- in order for them to buck, you know, to buck their constituents and vote in lock step with their party, they have to not only be convinced that they'll all do it together, but that the Democrats will be able to flip a Republican. So far, it's not clear. There are targets that the Democrats had to have, but it's hard for those folks to buck their own constituents and then find --

KING: Which will drag the drama out to the very end because all the Democrats are going to wait for those Republicans to go first, hoping they get a flip.

SHEAR: And those Republicans are going to see anytime soon.

BASH: And they shouldn't hold their breath.

SHEAR: Right.

BASH: That those Republicans are going to --

KING: Not going to hold their breath. All right. Thanks for joining us in the INSIDE POLITICS today.

It's just Monday. A great week ahead. See you back here this time tomorrow. Wolf starts right now. Have a great day.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer. It's 1 p.m. here in Washington. Wherever you're watching from around the world, thanks very much for joining us.