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Inside Politics

Manafort Pleads Guilty, Will Cooperate with Mueller; Trump Disputes Puerto Rico Death Toll in Series of Tweets; Democrats Widening Generic Ballot Advantage; Republicans Say Allegation Won't Delay Kavanaugh Vote. Aired 8-9a ET

Aired September 16, 2018 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

[08:00:12] JOHN KING, CNN HOST (voice-over): Hurricane Florence lashes the Carolinas.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I cried this morning, I dropped down and cried. It is what it is. We can't control it. Just pick up and deal.

KING: A new challenge yet the president is consumed with an old grievance.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATE: I think Puerto Rico was an incredible, unsung success.

KING: Plus, Paul Manafort pleads guilty and promises full cooperation.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's quite a coup I think for the special counsel. He's basically fessed up to everything.

KING: And big shifts in the midterm math. The president is a drag and the Senate in play.

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY), MAJORITY LEADER: It's like a knife fight in an alley, I mean, just a brawl.

KING: INSIDE POLITICS, the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters, now.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: Welcome to INSIDE POLITICS. I'm John King.

To our viewers in the United States and around the world, thank you for sharing your Sunday.

Team Trump says no worries, but the president's former campaign chairman, whose ties to Russia date back years, is now cooperating with the special counsel.

Plus, rewriting history, the president giving himself an A-plus for Hurricane Maria even as Florence punishes the Carolinas.

And it's a midterm mess for Republicans. The president's poll numbers down, where support for the Democrats are up.

A lot of politics to discuss this Sunday. Up first, though, the latest on the disaster in the Carolinas. This morning, what was once Hurricane Florence weakened to a tropical depression but Florence still causing rain, flash flooding and major river flooding over significant portions of both North and South Carolina.

Those floods, officials say, will continue for days. In some areas the storm has dropped 40 plus inches of rain since making landfall Friday morning. It could be three to five days before those water levels peak.

In the meantime, roughly three-quarter of a million customers without power.

CNN's Nick Watt is in North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Nick, what's the latest?

NICK WATT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, the death toll now from this storm across the Carolinas has risen to 13. Three people killed in flash flooding on roads in North Carolina yesterday.

And that is going to continue to be the story of today. It's the inland flooding. It's the rivers. We're keeping an eye on the Cape Fear River, Lumber River, Pee Dee River, which of particular interest to us, it is about 100 miles inland.

And, of course, trillions of gallons of water have fallen in North Carolina and South Carolina. That water has to go somewhere. The Pee Dee right now it's running 27 feet, expected to top 40 feet some time in the next day. And as you mentioned, over the next two, three, four days, those rivers are going to peak. It's going to be the inland flooding that is going to be the issue.

You know, the governor of North Carolina, actually, has said to out- of-state drivers, don't come in. Just go around. Stay out of the way.

So, it is the inland issue that's going to be the thing today. Those rivers are going to crest some time in the next few days. Now, here in North Myrtle Beach, the problem was going to be the storm surge. That, mercifully, that never happened.

I would say it probably had to rise another two feet and this town would have been inundated. That did not happen. North Myrtle Beach has dodged a bullet here on the coast. Now, the focus really shifts inland and those rivers -- John.

KING: Nick, appreciate that. Stay safe as well. Throughout the day, we'll keep track of Florence. Stay with CNN. We'll bring you any major developments.

Shifting now, though, to politics and what could be a game-changing development in the special counsel investigation. The former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort is now a cooperating witness. Yes, the president is absolutely right, when he says the crimes that Manafort admitted to predate and have nothing to do with the 2016 Trump campaign. But the president could not be more wrong when he characterizes the Mueller investigation as he says, quote, an artificial witch hunt.

Manafort, now the fourth former Trump campaign aide to plead guilty and the most consequential. He had Russian ties when he joined the campaign. If anyone on team Trump was aware of the Russian election interference, Manafort would likely know. He ran the Trump convention operation, that when the Republican platform language on Russia was softened and he was at the infamous Trump Tower meeting arranged by Donald Trump Jr. after promised by Russians to deliver dirt on Hillary Clinton.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. ERIC SWALWELL (D), INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE: The jig is up. This nonsense that there's nothing to see here or this is a witch hunt, now the Trump team is 0 for Mueller.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Manafort already talking to the special counsel and this is significant. His plea deal requires cooperation with other Justice Department investigations, including one in New York that already has the cooperation of the president's long-time fixer, Michael Cohen, and the Trump Organization's chief financial officer.

Yet Trump team says no worries.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUDY GIULIANI, PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ATTORNEY: The plea is to crimes that have to do with Manafort's past, no involvement with President Trump, no involvement with the campaign, no involvement with Russia.

[08:05:00] And, by the way, there's also no evidence of obstruction. There have been four guilty pleas now and they're completely irrelevant. There's never been a single fact produced that President Trump, in any way, colluded with anybody, much less

conspired with anybody. The man is totally innocent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: With us this Sunday to share their reporting and their insights, Lisa Lerer with "The New York Times", "Politico's" Eliana Johnson, Margaret Talev from "Bloomberg", and the "Washington Post's" Seung Min Kim.

Again, the president is right now, and Rudy Giuliani, to take away the adjective, is right, in the sense that there's nothing on the record against the president, but to have Paul Manafort turning from hostile witness to cooperating witness says what?

SEUNG MIN KIM, WHITE HOUSE REPORTER, THE WASHINGTON POST: Well, it's just so remarkable. I was actually with the president on that tarmac in West Virginia the day that Manafort was convicted on his previous charges in the courtroom in Alexandria where the president says he's a good man. A few days later, he says he's not going to break.

So, to see this development in the past few weeks has been, you know, fascinating to watch. And I think that, look, we don't know what Mueller is going to ask, we don't know what direction he's going to go. But as we pointed out, Paul Manafort was there at the most critical points of the campaign.

Trump is right when he says he was with him for that long, he was with him for about five months, and, you know, three months as the campaign chairman, but he was at that infamous Trump Tower meeting that we constantly talk about, that June 2016 meeting with Kushner and Don Jr., trying to get dirt from the Russian lawyer, also at the convention where we saw that, you know, drama and controversy over the foreign policy platform.

KING: And to that point about that meeting, arranged by Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort, as the president himself likes to say, presidential experience going back to Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole, et cetera, someone who should know better, someone who knows you don't talk to Russians in the middle of a campaign, you certainly don't bring them into a building called Trump Tower when the Republican nominee is Trump. So, this is a very significant witness.

I'm sorry, to you.

MARGARET TALEV, SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, BLOOMBERG: Paul Manafort was with him for most of the time that matter, for the purposes of this. And that counts for something and to see a shift like this certainly suggests that Mr. Manafort is concerned about minimizing his exposure to any more potential time and is willing to share what he knows. Again, we don't know what that means. But it's not good for the president. We don't know how bad it is, but it's certainly not good for the president.

KING: Right. For the special counsel to be open, he has a 10-year maximum right now in the plea deal they struck. Manafort could have gone to jail for a lot more, number one. But number two, the special counsel has a right to come back and ask a judge to give him less than that if the fruits of his cooperation are viewed as worthwhile.

For Mueller to cut that deal tells you he thinks there's some fruit.

LISA LERER, NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER, THE NEW YORK TIMES: Why would he cut that deal if he doesn't think there's nothing there, right? He has nothing to gain by cutting a deal if he's not going to get something out of it.

So, it seems pretty clear, you know, this Mueller investigation has remained a black box for a long time and I think that's in part why the Trump team has trouble figuring out the sort of politics, political angle of this because they're not used to dealing with someone whose most powerful tool is silence. That's not how they do things. But we know that he's not going to take this action unless he thinks

he can get something from it, you know? So, there must be something there.

ELIANA JOHNSON, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, POLITICO: Well, the question to me is what is Manafort cooperating with Mueller on? And the Trump team's strategy seems to be pretty clear, which is to say no collusion, no collusion, no collusion. And anything that Mueller gets cooperation on from Manafort that is beyond the scope of collusion with Russia, they're going to say it's out of his purview, is faulty exercise of power and so on.

And it was interesting because the -- securing the cooperation of Manafort wasn't the only thing that happened. We also had Bob Woodward over whose book the Trump White House, saying he didn't think there was collusion from two years of reporting that he had done. So, it does seem to me that they're getting Manafort's cooperation but it's probably not about collusion with Russia. It's about some other crime surrounding Trump. So, that should be interesting and it will be interesting to see the Trump White House's reaction as Mueller's probe proceeds.

KING: And as the White House says, it has nothing to do with the president. Again, there's nothing in the official record anywhere yet that implies anything against the president. We should be careful about that. But the cooperation is important. But again, this is president says he hires the best people. You now have his former campaign chairman, his former deputy chairman, his former national security adviser and a low level aide, Papadopoulos, all pleading guilty to various crimes.

So, in the minimum, at the minimum, you can make the case that the president doesn't surround himself with the best people. The president says this is the reason his poll numbers are down. He's tweeting this out last night.

While my or our poll numbers are good, they're not, but while our poll numbers are good, with the economy being the best ever, if it weren't for the rigged Russian witch hunt, they would be 25 points higher. Highly conflicted Bob Mueller and the 17 angry Democrats are using this phony issue to hurt us in the midterms. No collusion.

So, to the point of strategy, it is the president's view to keep attacking the special counsel, to keep saying this is an illegitimate investigation.

[08:10:02] I will say, in our polling, since Mueller has started to wrack up more courtroom successes. He doesn't talk publicly. So, the president's attacks were actually having a big effect on Bob Mueller. You see it there, but a Manafort conviction, now a Manafort plea deal. On the second trial, you see, not that Mueller cares about this, but it does matter in the court of public opinion, his numbers are on the rise.

LERER: I just don't think it's proving to be that successful of a strategy. I mean, we don't know and we won't know until at least the midterms, right, and probably the re-election. But their idea was just to attack, attack, attack, attack. And, you know, Mueller said nothing. And I was always saying on the show, let see what happens when we start seeing things out of Mueller.

And what we saw happen was those numbers start to change. And there was a really interesting poll in the past couple of weeks from Kaiser health news which normally does -- they're sort of a gold standard for polling on health issues. And they found months and months that the top issue that voters care about is health care.

Guess what? Couple of weeks, they found that corruption had sailed to the top and that feels pretty significant for the midterms. And this -- you know, the assessment from strategists on both sides was that this investigation was something that was baked into the electorate. People, whether they liked it or not, they had already decided and it wasn't going to sway voters one way or another. And the fact that corruption has risen to the top makes me wonder if it will have an impact on --

TALEV: But it's also why those pleas I think are so important and part of Mayor Rudy Giuliani's strategy is that when you have people either pleading or being found guilty, it chips away at that sort of message that there's nothing to see here.

KING: And the biggest dive in the president's numbers in the Republican congressional ballot numbers, we'll get to the specifics in a few minutes, is independence. That to your point, they see something they just don't like. They just decided enough, we don't like this anymore.

And to Rudy Giuliani's point, if you listen here, this is not a strategy. If you listen to Rudy Giuliani, how he make this case, this is not designed to get Democrats or independents to line up. This is all about the Trump base.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GIULIANI: Here is the collusion strangely, Sean. The collusion is that whole group of people, Strzok, Page, Ohr, Ohr's wife, Comey, Brennan, Clapper, they decided to first keep him out of the White House so we get the dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton. When they failed in that mission, they just transition right into trying to drive him out of the White House. So, this is not -- this is not an investigation based on any facts.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Everybody, every other breathing human being is out to get Donald Trump. That's that.

JOHNSON: Well, I think we've seen that Trump really excels politically when he is backed up against the wall and has an adversary. So, during the Republican primary, it was Lyin' Ted, Little Marco, and then Hillary Clinton. And now it's the same with the Mueller probe.

(CROSSTALK)

LERER: But he always had adversaries that fought back. Now, he has an adversary that says nothing. It's different dynamic.

KING: He fights back with his work.

LERER: Right.

KING: Fights back with his work, and if you read the court filings, they're pretty damning. But we'll see where this one goes from here.

Up next, a president who demands constant praise and tries to rewrite his bad reviews even as a hurricane hits.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:17:40] KING: Hurricane Florence, now Tropical Depression Florence, is the giant challenge of the moment. Yet, Hurricane Maria is the president's obsession.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I think Puerto Rico was incredibly successful. Texas, we have been given A-pluses for. Florida, we've been given A-pluses for. I think in a certain way, the best job we did was Puerto Rico.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Now, that was Monday, with Florence still a few days away. And it didn't stop. Thursday, as Florence began to hit, the tweet disputing the Hurricane Maria death toll and any suggestion that the federal response was not perfect. Friday, as Florence raged, evening tweets in the 6:00 hour, 8:00 hour and 10:00 hour about Maria.

When it comes to this president, ego trumps empathy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN (R), FLORIDA: The president's tweets on the deaths in Puerto Rico was heartless. It was cold. It was demeaning, dehumanizing, tribualizing. The deaths of hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of Americans -- I think he believes that Puerto Ricans are not Americans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: The question is why? We know the president is sensitive. We know the president has a healthy ego.

We could have, when there's snow on the ground and it's not hurricanes approaching, an academic conversation about how to count hurricane deaths. But why in the world did he want to pick a fight about Maria as there was another hurricane off the coast?

JOHNSON: I think he knows he has been criticized for the handling of that hurricane because of the difficulties of handling a hurricane that ravaged an island that wasn't prepared to handle one. And that he's acutely aware of the stain that Hurricane Katrina left on President Bush's legacy and doesn't want a similar stain on his own legacy. So, again, looking at this through the prism of his own legacy rather than the impact that these hurricanes are having on the people afflicted by them. And so, going in to the next hurricane, he is looking backward rather than forward, but again, does not want a Katrina.

LERER: But this is -- I mean, beyond the morality and empathy issue of erasing people's deaths, right? The government -- this 3,000 death toll number was gotten because the government commissioned a study, because it's really hard to measure deaths after a hurricane. Someone misses their dialysis treatment because they can't get there, there's no electricity.

[08:20:03] Is that a storm related death?

So, they commissioned the study from G.W. to get that number and have an accurate count. So, beyond sort of the factual and sort of empathy issues of erasing those numbers, it's also not great politics. It may be good politics for the president, for his party, particularly people running in Florida, where there's an influx of Puerto Rican voters. It's not great.

KING: Every level of government failed and previous administrations failed, to your point. The infrastructure, the electric grid, it was a disaster waiting to turn into a bigger disaster because of the neglect of Puerto Rico and its own politicians. Everybody failed. The president just can't process that he's the president, he's part of that. He's just simply part of that.

But to your point about the politics of this -- Rick Scott, a Trump ally, but running for Senate now, the current governor of Florida, says I disagree with POTUS. The lost of any life is tragic, the extent of lives lost as a result of Maria is heart wrenching.

Rob DeSantis, a key Trump ally on the whole Bob Mueller, now running for governor, the Republican nominee for governor, he's a congressman, committed to standing with the Puerto Rican community. Doesn't believe any loss of life has been inflated.

TALEV: Yes. Well, and those are two really important people to take a step away from Trump because they usually do not. In fact, they usually embrace him. But take a look at these numbers, since 2016, something like 100,000 additional Hispanic voters add to the rolls. We don't know exactly how many of those are Puerto Rican but a lot of them are.

But political scientists don't know if it's enough to make a pivotal difference in these elections, but if you're one of those gentlemen running for office, do you want to take the chance?

KING: And it just -- again, again, I get that the president thinks that they're dumping all the blame on him when the blame is shared. But he can't take it -- it's the timing, and it's the insensitivity. I don't think you need to be Puerto Rican or Latino to think why, why now, why is he doing this now, A, as a hurricane approaches and, B, to relitigate Maria.

And this shows up, if you look at the polling, personal characteristics of the president, will unite the country, only 30 percent of Americans think that.

Honest and trustworthy, only 32 percent of Americans think that. Proud to have him as president, only 32 percent say yes. Cares about people like you, fewer than four in 10 say yes. Respects rule of law, fewer than four in ten say yes.

So, this -- his personal attributes largely driven by his attacks and his ego, are hurting him.

KIM: And going back to when he visited San Juan in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria last year, we all remember that tossing the paper towel moment to the crowd and that seemed like an example where he wasn't showing that empathy needed of a commander in chief had such a tragic time on the island. But at the same time, and it wasn't just a pivotal moment, he was also at the same time, he was saying, I'm going to give myself an A-plus for Texas, and Florida and probably here, too.

I mean, you never want to grade yourself like that. But grading yourself at that moment in such a delicate time is just --

KING: But the praise thing is a constant, though. And you see examples of it just in the past 24 hours. Donald Trump Jr. went on Breitbart Radio said how dare Barack Obama try to take any credit for the economy. The president tweeting out, exclusive: Donald Trump Jr. to Obama, my dad fixed the economy. You could not.

Simple math, 95 consecutive months of job growth, Donald Trump president for 19 months. The recovery started under Barack Obama. It has gained steam with tax cuts and deregulation. The president can claim all the credit he wants from that. Simple math there.

Also, thank you, Barack. It is my honor -- this is about the FEMA director, president retweeting, we at FEMA have never had this support that we've had from this president.

So, the FEMA director in the middle of dealing with the hurricane feels compelled to say, the president is awesome. This is the culture that he has created.

JOHNSON: Look, this is clearly not a president who ran on his empathy, like Bill Clinton having a moment, reaching his hand out to a woman in a crowd and tearing up. These are not that the attributes that Trump ran and won on. He ran on strength and his ability to beat his opponent into the ground. And I think we're seeing some of that now.

I actually thought watching the president's tweet that my Twitter was broken because I kept seeing tweets from the president pop up over and over and over again. He saw President Bush during Katrina knocked for what like his inattention to the problem. So, what we're seeing now is not him showing empathy, but he's trying to show that he's involved in trying to find a solution. I think that's what we're going to see from Trump, not empathy to the victims.

LERER: Yes, I'm not sure for the president it will hurt him that much. Voters, as you say, didn't elect him, they elected him because he's a fighter. They see -- his base sees this and say, well, she's punching back. That's what they like. The question is how it trickles down and what the impact is on the rest of the Republican Party.

KING: His base is fewer than four in ten Americans.

LERER: Right.

KING: You can't govern with the support of four in 10 or less than four in 10 -- fewer than four in ten Americans.

And up next, we get to this very point, the new midterm math. Republicans are in a panic. Democrats like Joe Biden, full of energy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT: You know, Barack and I agreed to remain silent for a while to give this administration a chance to get up and running this first year. God forgive me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:29:39] KING: Welcome back.

The 2018 primary season is over. Seven weeks now to the midterm election, it is an understatement to say the climate is trending toward the Democrats. The latest numbers actually quite overwhelming. Let's take a look.

[08:30:00]

You start the midterm election, the single biggest factor, the president's approval rating.

And you see the president now in our latest poll at 36 percent, 36 percent approval with registered voters. He has hovered around 40 percent throughout the year. Most smart Republicans will tell you that the president must be above 40. They would prefer him at 45 for the Republicans to have any chance to keep the House, up around 45. He is at 36 right now with seven weeks to go. Bad news.

And remember the 36 -- this translates when voters are asked which party do you want to support for Congress? It's right around the President's number -- only 40 percent now saying the Republicans; the Democrats with a 12-point lead in the so-called generic ballot.

Again if this holds up through Election Day, the Democrats will take back the House. There is no way with a 12-point gap on Election Day, if it holds up, the Republicans can contain the House. Let's look at a little history to make that point. President Trump at 36 percent, you see where President Obama was in his two midterms, George W. Bush in his second midterm, '06. This was a generic ballot around the same time as well.

Double digits for the President, double digits for Bush back in '06, for Obama in '10 -- his first midterm right around double digits and let's see what happened. This is so connected.

President's approval rating, it's down. You get blown out. President's approval rating down, you get blown out. President's approval rating, a Republican in this case, is down. You get blown out.

The question is what will happen this fall? And again, Republicans take a look at this number, 12 points out. They know they can't run on Trump in most of the country. They've had a hard time breaking through on the economy because in most of the country because the economy is so closely linked to Trump. So what are they doing? If you live in a district that's competitive, you're probably seeing sharply personal attack ads like these.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Poor children on Medicaid, many turned away from health care providers. It happened at Dr. Kim Schrier's (ph) practice.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What's rich? Scott Wallace -- he inherited $100 million but Wallace repeatedly failed to pay his own taxes.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Spanberger (ph) doesn't want us to know that she taught at an Islamic school nicknamed "Terror High", a terrorist breeding ground.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Pureval's lobbying firm made millions. How can Libya reduce payments owed to families of American killed by Libyan terrorism?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Attack ads are not new but when you see the scorched earth ads being run -- that was being run by a congressional PAC, a Republican PAC against Democrats. I thought Republicans were going to run on, hey, we've got a great economy.

MARGARET TALEV, SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, BLOOMBERG: Tax cuts.

KING: Keep us in power. We cut taxes, the economy is booming. But they can't because of the President.

LISA LERER, NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": It's also pretty early for those kinds of ads, right? Everyone always -- not everyone but you often see scorched earth ads, as you say, but you tend to see them later, right, more into October. First you do something (INAUDIBLE) to introduce your candidate, all the accomplishments you've had. Then you go for the attack ad, traditionally. So the fact that that playbook is being upended underscores how nervous Republicans are about these coming midterms.

And you also see that in how they're talking about the Senate. For a long time they felt that the Senate was fairly locked down. And now, they still feel ok about it, but there's some shakiness and a little bit more concern that the Senate could flip or get pretty close to Democratic control.

TALEV: Yes. I think the super negative stuff is coming early enough so that there's time to test that message and see if it works. If there's not time to return to attempting to just drive the economic message and see if it works.

But look where we are right now. We're still talking about a shutdown and whether that's really what the President wants to do like going into his own majority's midterm election. So things are really complicated and weird and that set the table for this advertising.

KING: Right. The President's brand is bad in most of the country. The House Republican brand is not so great in much of the country. You mentioned the Senate. I just want to put up this map up.

It's a little hard to follow but there are ten Senate races we're essentially watching right now. It is still possible the Republicans gain a couple of seats in the United States Senate. It's also possible with a 12-point gap and with the President's -- in a generic ballot -- with the President's numbers so low that the Democrats take the Senate.

This one is going to be the late-nighter. You see the states where you have the numbers. That's recent polling in seven of those races, they're all margin of error. Those are statistical dead heats.

Montana, Texas, and West Virginia -- you see there West Virginia, the Democrats feel increasingly confident about, but it's close. Montana they feel increasingly confident about but it's close. And Republicans are worried about Ted Cruz in Texas, which we now lean Republican, it was likely Republican.

So you have these 10 seats -- Mitch McConnell calls it the knife fight. But a couple of months ago the question was, will Republicans gain a seat or two because the map is so heavily-tilted toward them?

Now this is a fair question. Is it possible with the President if he stays at 36 percent, if the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is double digits? And it could go.

SEUNG MIN KIM, WHITE HOUSE REPORTER, "THE WASHINGTON POST": It's definitely possible. And we really -- I mean in talking to our sources, we've seen that very notable shift, that note of optimism that we will retain the Senate and perhaps pick up a couple of seats to wait, we might be in trouble. And the fact that Texas is marked on that map that you just showed is just quite remarkable, because it is Texas and also in a midterm year. But we had reporting this week that showed there's a lot of private concern within the Republican Party about Ted Cruz's prospects. Not that it's necessarily that he's going to lose but about the resources that the party will have to divert towards this direction to kind of make sure that he wins.

[08:34:57] We know the President is going to rally for him some time in October in the biggest stadium that you can find in Texas. We know Cruz has kind of made it clear to colleagues in private lunches saying like hey, like I may need some help here.

And that's, you know, frustrating for the rest of the party when they have so much battleground that they need to save their resources.

KING: Right. It's a big state. It's a diverse state. It's not a cheap state. It's not the most expensive but it's not a cheap state. And Democrats are happy even if Beto O'Rourke is competitive, they think down ballot, a couple of House districts, state legislative races, other races where Democrats have been wiped out in the last 10 years. They think they have a chance there.

To this point, does the President understand? This is when Mitch McConnell went public and said it's a knife fight, number one, he's trying to get donors -- give me more money. Number two, he's trying to get the President -- this President who watches TV please listen to me, please stop talking, please stop tweeting. Just disappear for a month.

I mean that's what they would tell you they want the President to do -- just be quiet for a month. Here is the President -- the "Wall Street Journal" wrote about this -- at a fundraising dinner. He's talking about hey the economy is so great. What's going on? Any Republican who supports him would lose, the President said, quote, "How can we lose?" Does he not get that this is about him?

And to that point, this is Glen Bolger (ph) in the "New York Times", a prominent Republican pollster. His firm deals with a boatload of key races, this congressional race, this governor's races that think -- people think the economy is doing well. But that's not what they're voting on. They're voting on the chaos of the guy in the White House.

The quote is not so surprising. But you have again, to your point about timing, that you have a Republican pollster willing to go on the record. This is not a Republican pollster anonymously involved in races. He's going on the record, seven weeks before an election to say the President is toxic and he's dragging our party down.

TALEV: But the President -- the President feels that the error in all of these judgments is blinking, that that is the problem; that when you show weakness, this is a problem. And when you start doing that thing where it's like time to dial back, maybe I'll skip this rally -- that that is what causes the moment when things change.

And that if you just keep heading straight for your targets, your enemies, driving your message, that's the way you survive, to drive through the storm, to drive through the fire. That's what he believes and that's why you see these disagreements.

ELIANA JOHNSON, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, "POLITICO": The "Times" article was fascinating because it talks about the President and the Republican leaders really at loggerheads and all of those vicious personal attack ads that you played in the beginning seem symptomatic of Republicans taking their cues from the President rather than leaders, adopting his style of personal politics rather than from Republican leadership who want them talking about the economy.

And the frustration of Republican leaders and, to your question of whether the President is listening to Mitch McConnell, it seems, no. His tweet last night was that Republican leaders are clueless and that they need to fight for border wall funding and he's willing to shut down the wall -- shut down the government over it.

TRUMP: He has never believed the Republican leadership when they tell him midterms are different than your presidential race.

LERER: And I think, you know, there's other presidents who have thought this too. If you talk to some Barack Obama advisers they'll say that the problem that the Democrats made in 2010 was not embracing the President. So I don think there's a level of ego for all presidents where they say, I just won this huge presidential how can you not embrace me?

The difference, of course, is that sometimes Barack Obama was deferential I think to the Senate leaders in that race and, you know, for better or worse kept a pretty low profile and we're seeing Trump take the different approach. So it will be interesting to see how it all -- every midterm is different but it's sort of --

(CROSSTALK)

KING: Right. And the question is when the numbers -- when the numbers took an end of summer tank for the Republicans, the question is, is that a break that you can reverse or at least mitigate or is that going to cement? And that's the big challenge for Republicans seven weeks to go.

Up next for us here, a key vote for the Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is on the calendar for this week even as he now denies an allegation he assaulted a woman while in high school.

[08:38:37] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh forcefully denying an allegation he assaulted a woman while in high school. The Republicans say there are no plans to delay the Judiciary Committee confirmation vote scheduled for this coming Thursday.

The only thing that could change those plans would be evidence the allegations was giving any Republican senator pause. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are being watched most closely. The allegations -- from a woman who attended high school in a Washington, D.C. area, and who now lives in California. She sent a letter to her congresswoman and to Senator Dianne Feinstein. Feinstein, of course, is the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee. But she did not raise the issue during the confirmation hearing. She says the woman does not want to come forward but Feinstein did forward the letter to the FBI.

In a statement Friday Judge Kavanaugh said quote, "I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation. I did not do this back in high school or at any time."

This is a sensitive issue to all parties. It's obviously controversial -- a, because of the substance; b, because of the timing. Is there any evidence on the table that it will stop the process from moving forward on Thursday?

KIM: I think again, it depends on any Republican senator showing any sort of hesitation. Absent that, this will move forward.

And I think the two that we're watching the most closely right now are the two Republican women, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, who have been very quiet in the last several weeks and especially quiet after news of these allegations started to leak earlier this week.

But Republican leaders -- first of all, Mitch McConnell hasn't said anything about it, which is notable, and also the Judiciary Committee, while Chuck Grassley hasn't himself said anything about it, the committee has emphasized that we're going forward with a vote on Thursday.

Senator Orrin Hatch, who has read this letter, said -- you know, made a very vehement defense of Brett Kavanaugh in a statement on Friday. So I think all signs are that for right now Republicans will proceed.

But there's so much that we don't know. I mean the letter is not public so we don't know for sure what's in it. You know, there's nothing that the FBI can really do at this point because we also know that the woman's name was redacted in this letter. The FBI is not investigating. All they've really done is just to add this to his background check file.

So absent, you know, perhaps the woman deciding to be more public about this, there's just not a lot that we know about the situation. And it's just a difficult situation for everyone involved.

KING: I do know someone who spoke to Senator McConnell -- Leader McConnell about this very late in the week after this broke and he was told that McConnell said it was still on track. When it happened the White House was quick to release a statement.

The Senate Republicans released a statement from 65 I believe it was, women who knew Kavanaugh at that time. We're talking about 30 plus years ago in the high school area here. Some of those women later went on Fox News. They understand completely that the target universe at the moment are those Republican senators to see that there's no pause (ph). And you had these character witnesses coming right out and saying based on their growing up with Kavanaugh back at that time they didn't find this believable.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MEGHAN MCCALEB, SIGNED LETTER, HAS KNOWN KAVANAUGH SINCE HIGH SCHOOL: He's always treated us with -- girls with respect, always. And it was simple to find 65 women to sign that letter from five different high schools. Everybody jumped on board and was happy to sign it on his behalf.

PORTER WILKINSON, FORMER KAVANAUGH CLERK: He is unfailingly kind and respectful. And a man of the highest character, unassailable integrity. And these allegations are flatly inconsistent with the man that I have known well for over a decade.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: The question is, and again, completely respect the woman who raised this allegation wants to remain private -- everybody has to respect that. And so if that remains the case and you do have, you know, others coming out who knew him at that time or worked with him later, saying they've seen nothing in his adult life that supports this -- does it change the dynamic at all?

JOHNSON: Look, I think the biggest wild card here is whether this woman comes forward and speaks. If she does, I think there's a chance that the vote is delayed. But if she doesn't, I think it's nearing 100 percent certainty not only that the vote takes place on Thursday but that he's confirmed.

KING: And the sense and you hear privately from Democrats and you see publicly in the "San Francisco Chronicle" criticism of Feinstein and how she handled this. Now again, if the woman wants privacy it's hard for the Senator, but the Senator is also up for re-election, running as a Democrat because of California's jungle primary law.

[08:44:57] The "San Francisco Chronicle" says "It was unfair to Kavanaugh, unfair to his accuser and unfair to Feinstein's colleagues, Democrats and Republicans alike. Feinstein did a disservice to her Judiciary Committee colleagues who might have wanted to determine if corroborating accounts were available or at least question Kavanaugh about the accusation in a closed session. Instead Feinstein's colleagues were left." Is that fair?

TALEV: I'm not -- at this point, I'm not saying anything that would derail his nomination. I mean in the absence of any other women coming out and saying oh, I forgot about something that happened to me, you know, 30 years ago. I just don't see that.

I mean this -- I think you're right. Dianne Feinstein has actually faced more criticism than Brett Kavanaugh has this week.

(CROSSTALK)

KIM: I just think that -- I talked to a lot of people on that committee just over the last several days and they were really blindsided about this especially when existence of this letter started leaking out in the last week or so. And I think that they're, at least publicly, the Democrats are saying we support what she's doing, like she did what she can. She's not out to do a smear job anyone which has been the accusation from the White House. But privately there's some consternation about how this was all handled.

KING: Again, if the woman doesn't want to come forward I'm not sure what you do in this situation but it does reflect the politics of the moment. We'll keep on tracking that but again, that vote scheduled for Thursday. >

Up next, our reporters share a page from their notebooks including the blue wave could extend well beyond Washington, D.C.

[08:46:20] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: Let's head one last time around the INSIDE POLITICS table, ask our great reporters to share a little something from their notebooks to help get you out ahead of the big political news just around the corner. Lisa.

LERER: Well, so as you know, I started this new politics newsletter at "The Times" this week called "On Politics". And one of our goals is to tell stories from across the country, not just from here in the Beltway.

So one thing we did this past week was look at the state legislatures. There's about a half a dozen seats -- half a dozen state senates that one or two or three seats away from flipping.

This is a trend that could have really big implications. You know, state legislatures control a lot of issues from health to labor to education but also with the census coming they're going to have a big role in redistricting and how those districts are drawn for the next ten years.

So this is a trend definitely worth watching and we should be paying attention to those races. And "On Politics" we will be.

KING: Horrible for the Democrats in the Obama years. They look like they -- perhaps, we'll see. Seven weeks to go.

Eliana.

JOHNSON: I'm looking around the corner from what seems like it will be Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation later this week to Don McGahn's resignation as White House counsel. He's staying through the Kavanaugh confirmation.

That job will then be open, and that is a big job that the White House has to fill. If Democrats take the House in November, that person who fills that job will be responsible for handling not only a spate of congressional investigations into the Trump White House but also potentially impeachment proceedings. So the person that Donald Trump selects to fill that job will have a host of responsibilities and will have an enormous impact on the way the Trump White House handles quite a bit in Washington.

KING: Good luck.

Margaret.

TALEV: Keep your eye on what's going on between the U.S. and China on that developing trade war this week. The President last week, meeting with his Treasury Secretary and some of the other top trade officials, to try to clear the decks for perhaps another $200 billion of goods will be subject to tariffs from China.

But it hasn't happened yet and there's a reason why. It's because of the ongoing and in some cases mounting concerns from major U.S. companies and retailers. And look, why do you care about this? Because we're talking about everything from Apple, popular brands like Apple, could affect the price of watches to what it costs to go to Wal-Mart or Target.

And then, of course, there's the other question -- farmers. Are we going to see some retaliation? So this is all taking place not just ahead of the midterms but more immediately ahead of that trip to the U.N. General Assembly by the President in about a week.

KING: Another big week ahead on the trade front.

Seung Min.

KIM: So settled at least on the congressional front that there's not going to be a fight over border wall funding before the midterms. But the question is if that fight is punted to the lame duck session, does President Trump get the entire $5 billion that he wants?

And I had some interesting conversations with Republicans this week, Jeff Flake in particular. We know he's retiring and we know he's a Trump critic but he says even if we do well in the midterms and retain control of both chambers, Trump is still not going to get his wall just because there is so much opposition, even among Republicans, about getting the full wall funding that he wants.

So it would be interesting to see how it plays out in the lame duck. But as we all know, the President hasn't seemed to rule out a shutdown over the wall just yet tweeting again last night to Republicans in kind of an angry tone, "Finish that wall".

KING: Essentially calling them spineless, kind of an angry tone. We'll watch this play out.

I'll close with this. The final test of course, is seven weeks from Tuesday. But now that the primaries are over, we already know 2018 is a record-setting year for women in politics. The Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University keeps a great count of women who run and how they fare. Among the new records already in the books, new highs for women nominated for the House, for the Senate, in governor's races and for state legislative seats. We'll give you the final numbers seven weeks from now.

That's it for INSIDE POLITICS. Again thanks for sharing your Sunday morning. Hope you can catch us weekdays as well. We're here at noon Eastern.

[08:55:03] Don't go anywhere. Up next, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER". Among his big guests -- the New York congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Thanks for joining us. Have a great Sunday.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Flooding fears, Florence crawled across the Carolinas dumping record rain and the worst maybe yet to come.

[09:00:05] GOVERNOR ROY COOPER (D), NORTH CAROLINA: The water is rising fast everywhere.

TAPPER: As President Trump again raises doubts that 3,000 Americans actually died in Puerto --