Return to Transcripts main page

Inside Politics

New Poll: Biden Statistically Tied With Warren, Sanders in NH; Pelosi and Mnuchin in Ongoing Talks Over Debt Ceiling; 2020 Democratic Money Battle. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired July 16, 2019 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:30:47] JOHN KING, CNN HOST: Some fresh warning signs today for Joe Biden in a brand new poll out from CNN and the University of New Hampshire. The former vice president locked in a statistical dead heat with two of his top rivals. Take a look here.

Twenty percent of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire say Biden is their top choice for the nomination, but 19 percent picked Senator Bernie Sanders,19 percent for Senator Elizabeth Warren. The margin of error in this poll is five percent which means essentially so you could call that a statistical tie. Or if Biden is ahead, the competition is certainly closing in. The former vice president telling MSNBC today he thinks it will all turn out fine but he's also conceding, voters might have some doubts, even more doubts, especially after his first debate performance.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't want to attack anyone on a stage. It's not what I intend to do. But I realize that some have concluded that because I didn't respond very tough back to her that how can I take on Trump. I've never had any trouble taking on anyone from Trump to Putin to Xi Jinping or anybody else.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Saying that in an interview is very different than proving it on a debate stage. And if that's your calling card, I'm the grownup with gravitas who can stand there next to Donald Trump next September and October, he better prove it in two weeks, right?

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, and he's got to start now. I mean, I think that these are all test cases for what's going to happen further down the road. He has to show he can handle his own party first before going forward. But he wouldn't be the first primary candidate to really struggle early on in these debates. Sometimes they have to in order to understand where they need to improve.

So if Biden is able to make those improvements, fine. But also, you know, he's proven himself to be a pretty stubborn candidate. He has been in this business for a long time. He feels like he knows what he wants to do, and he wants to do it his way. But there are -- is going to be a need to grow in this field because this is a field of Democrats who are representing different generations and different types of ideologies. And he has to learn how to be nimble enough to deal with that.

KING: They were a long time ago, but Joe Biden presidential candidate has never made it into the even-numbered year. His campaign has always sputtered in this year.

JONATHAN MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Which is not optimal, right?

KING: Which is not optimal. The question is, you mentioned the word grow, does he grow, does he learn.

I want to go deeper into this New Hampshire poll. If you look at this number, this is Biden's calling card, who's the candidate with the best chance to win in the general election. In New Hampshire 45 percent say Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders 16 percent. That is a giant advantage that he needs to hold if Democrats think this is a race about that.

However, I want to come over here to look at something else. Who's the best candidate to handle these issues? On the economy, Biden has a narrow lead, 24 percent to 20 percent for Elizabeth Warren, 17 percent for Sanders. But healthcare is the animating issue for many Democrats. He's third, Senator Sanders wins.

This is New Hampshire, Senator Sanders ran before, he's a familiar face, he's from Vermont, Warren is from Massachusetts, so you have to filter all that in here. But if you're the former vice president, you can't lose a lot at the beginning. We may have a long Democratic race. It may be one candidate wins Iowa, somebody wins New Hampshire, maybe somebody else wins South Carolina and we have a long, protracted race. It's not normally the way it works but if you're the former vice president who came in as the giant frontrunner, you've got to win early, right?

ASMA KHALID, POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, NPR: I mean, part of it is I think a lot of what these early polls show is name recognition, right?, and we've talked a lot about that. But I think the other thing to me that's really interesting is I spent the weekend, I was at Netroots Nation which is this, you know, a huge gathering of progressive activists who've take that for what it is. It's that wing of the party. But, what was interesting to me is you talk to folks and they're really content with their field of Democratic candidates. You know, I could go with Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. But the one person that they are in agreement that they do not want, that they actually think is the least electable candidate is Joe Biden.

KING: I want to listen to a piece of that. We stole this from your piece on NPR. This is Yvette Simpson from Democracy for America. Again, you're right, this is one wing of the party. It's an activist wing of the party, it's very energetic wing of the primary. Joe Biden is betting there are more moderates and centrists out there when people actually start voting out in the country but the energy from these activists to say not Joe Biden is palpable.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

YVETTE SIMPSON, CEO, DEMOCRACY FOR AMERICA: I do believe that there are people who can afford for the world not to change. And I think if you can afford for the world not to change, you take the slow approach.

[12:35:00] And so If you're a privileged few that can wait for Medicare for All, then maybe you can be a moderate, but we don't have time for that.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

KING: It's an interesting -- and Biden is their poster child for -- that's the, you know, the go-slow, cautious, pragmatic approach. They don't want it.

MARTIN: The contempt for Biden on the left is extraordinary. You see it on Twitter but you also see it -- I was in New Hampshire last weekend. Talking to people, they don't even mention him in some circles. You know, when you ask who they're considering, he's not even an option for what I would call the kind of high information, the more progressive wing of the party that is really following this race in July of 2019.

Biden's bet is that there are a lot more casual Democratic voters who will show up in the primaries but are not super engaged right now, some of which are not college-educated who will support him. And looking at the polling there, you know, this might be an even worse story for Biden were this field not so divided. He's at 23 or whatever, you know, in New Hampshire as the former two-term vice president. That's not that high. But he benefits from the fact that it's so fractured right now.

And that could ultimately be the best thing he has going for him. He's never going to get 51 percent of the vote in the early going, right? But he could actually survive based on this fractured field.

KING: Right. And one other takeaway from that is it's another good poll for Elizabeth Warren. You know, it sort of the slow and steady approach but she has worked her way into play. We'll watch, the debate is coming up two weeks right here.

Up next, a former Republican congressman who endured the president's wrath says he might seek revenge in the presidential primaries.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:40:57] KING: Topping our political radar today, still no sign of that massive immigration sweep the president said ICE would begin carrying it out starting Sunday. One official with knowledge of the operation confirming to CNN there's been no surge of arrests or activity. The official went on to say that ICE does arrests every day but right now this official says it's, quote, business as usual. That despite the president saying yesterday the raids have started and have been the president said, quote, very successful.

Eric Garner died on a Staten Island sidewalk five years ago. Today the Justice Department announcing it will not bring federal charges against the white New York police officer who wrestled Garner, a black man, to the ground with a choke hold. A senior Justice Department official telling CNN the Attorney General William Barr made the final call siding with federal prosecutors in New York who are reluctant to bring charges at overruling the department's civil rights division here in Washington.

Several new policy plans out today from the 2020 Democratic presidential field. Senator Kamala Harris releasing a plan to tackle rising prescription drug prices. Her proposal will allow the federal government to set the prices for some prescription drugs and will heavily penalize drug majors for overcharging.

Former vice president Joe Biden also out with a new plan of his focusing on helping rural areas. Among the proposals, extending an Obama-era program giving microloans to farmers, boosting funding for rural hospitals, and investing in broadband access for rural communities.

The president you might remember helped end his political back in 2018. Now the former South Carolina Republican Congressman Mark Sanford says he's considering trying to return the favor. Sanford telling Charleston Post and Courier, he's mulling a Republican presidential primary challenge. Quote, sometimes in life you've got to say what you've got to say whether there's an audience or not for that message. Sanford telling the newspaper adding, quote, I feel convicted.

There's progress today in the effort to raise the debt ceiling and reach a budget deal before the congressional recess in August but still no deal. The two key players, the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Sources telling CNN the two are in near-constant negotiations over how to move forward, but they're still not yet to the finish line and time running out.

CNN's Phil Mattingly up on Capitol Hill. Phil, will they make a deal, and when?

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: If you have the answer to that question you can probably make a lot of money on Wall Street right now. Look, given where things were just about 10, 15 days ago when talks had completely fallen apart to where they are now, the speaker and the Treasury secretary have spoken six times in the last seven days or expected to speak again today. People who have been briefed on those conversations which have been a pretty fairly tight circle right now say not only there is progress being made but they've closed out a lot of kind of the outstanding issues that were concerning up to this point.

It seems to be at least at today's things or today's status that people feel like they're productive and they're getting close. But, John, as you know as well as anybody to close out those final things are always the most difficult things. Those are the technical details that need to be finished up in a very, very compressed timetable. Those are things like how to pay for certain elements of the final deal.

And to kind of put all of the context here, this is a deal that comes together because Democrats want domestic spending increased. They don't want the sharp budget cuts on that. Republicans want defense spending increased and the Treasure secretary and the administration don't want a catastrophic debt to fall. All of those elements were in play, the biggest question now is can they get it done in the timeline they're working on.

They now have seven legislative days before the House leaves for recess. The Treasury secretary has made clear the debt ceiling should be raised before they leave. That's the trigger for a deal.

Can they get there? They're certainly talking and they certainly feel good at this point. Still, some stuff to close up here, John.

KING: Seven days left. Why do I suspect we'll be back at this until the seventh and final day left? Just maybe.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

KING: Phil Mattingly live on the Hill, appreciate that.

When we come back, here's a question, we have some new fundraising numbers for the presidential field. Does money follow momentum or does momentum follow money?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:49:21] KING: There may be 24 Democratic candidates in the 2020 presidential field but today a much clearer vision of the five collecting the most money. These are from second-quarter fundraising reports just required to be filed by the candidates. And if you look, it's a lot of faces, a lot of people run in the primary so this can be a tad confusing but just focus on the top line. Buttigieg, Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris. The top five fundraisers in the second quarter.

Guess what? Look at state and national polls, they tend to be the top five candidates in those polls. You see, not bad numbers for some of the other candidates, some weaker numbers down here, increasing the pressure on those lower in the field. They need a big debate moment, they need something to help them raise more money.

Here's a warning sign for some of these candidates. If you're running a presidential campaign or any campaign you don't want to have a high burn rate, meaning spending more money than you're taking in.

[12:50:06] Well, in the second quarter, Kirsten Gillibrand spent a lot more money than she took in. Beto O'Rourke, Governor Hickenlooper, former Congressman Delaney, Marianne Williamson breaking even in the hundred percent. What that means you're spending as quick as it's coming in or in some cases spending faster than the money is coming in, that's a danger sign. Again, for many of these candidates on this screen, they need a boost in the polls which means they need a boost out of the next debate.

As the Democrats think about the primary right now, they should also be mindful of this. Look at the cash on hand. President Trump does not at the moment have a significant primary challenge. We'll see if that changes. Look at all the money the president has on hand compared to the Democrats who are now focused on the primary challenge and not the general election.

But, back to the primary challenge, for those lesser-known candidates who are raising less money, they need to prove themselves in the next debate, most of them say it's OK, I'll figure it out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MICHAEL BENNET (D-CO), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's well below many of the other candidates who started much better known. I'm sort of the new kid on the block. I've started where Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter started at one percent and we're building.

GOV. JAY INSLEE (D-WA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, I can only -- I congratulate everybody on their fundraising numbers. I was only in the race for two months when the quarter ended.

GOV. STEVE BULLOCK (D-MT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I only got into these six weeks ago because I also had a job to do. It's not necessarily about who raises the most money, it's ultimately about can you get your message out to folks and I think we're out to a real good start.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MARTIN: Bravo. Bravo to the CNN producers with that compilation. A familiar refrain there.

Here's the challenge that these Democrats are facing. It's not '76 or '92 anymore. A little-known governor who works hard and catches on by, you know, organizing in Iowa or in New Hampshire, it's tougher to do that in a nationalized race with social media and with, you know, debates that effectively become the drivers in these polls. And the drivers frankly in online fundraising too.

And guess what the standard is to make the fall debate, John? Fundraising and polls. So therein lies the challenge for these candidates. If they're not raising money from donors which happens online, which happens from big debate moments, they're probably not moving in the polls either.

KING: So the field is going to start to shrink after this next round.

MARTIN: That's the short way of saying it.

KING: Right. One of the most interesting names is Beto O'Rourke who gained national prominence for how much he was able to raise in his Texas Senate race and so they thought that would translate as he run for president to try to raise money. In the first 24 hours he raised $6.1 million. In the first quarter he raised $9.4 million, in the second quarter he raised just $3.6 million.

There's pressure on a lot of these candidates who are in the lower tier or the lowest tier if you will none more than Beto O'Rourke.

PHILLIP: Yes, and I think he really has a lot to prove now because that kind of drop is really alarming because it seems to indicate a drop-off in enthusiasm around him. And perhaps that all of the hype that was around his candidacy in the Senate cannot translate onto the national stage. But money matters. Whether you can raise it, whether it shows that you have enough grassroots enthusiasm that matters too.

And it also matters because President Trump is raising $100 million in a single quarter and has $100 million cash on hand. Look, that's a lot of money even for an incumbent. And I think that the Democrats are going to have to be able to prove that they can compete in that space.

KING: And back to the Beto point just for a minute, this is his campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon. "We have the resources we need to be in this for the long haul, but if we don't raise more this quarter, we'll have no choice but to make some adjustments." It's little a contradictory message there.

Make some adjustments means first, laying off staff which you need in a presidential campaign to organize. Making adjustments can also mean something else which means saying goodbye.

KHALID: Yes, exactly. And I think what's interesting is as we've seen Beto's campaign not bring in as much money, we've seen another white, young male progressive raise substantial amounts of money and that's Pete Buttigieg. And to me, you know, there sort of lanes developing already early on in this primary cycle and where Beto has fallen perhaps, we've seen Mayor Pete, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana somewhat rise.

JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: And this speaks to another sort of self-fulfilling prophecy along with the one that Jonathan was talking about which is that, you know, money is important for a lot of reasons for a campaign but one of them is narrative, right? If it looks like Beto is -- his support is cratering, that the money is not coming in, they of course have to motivate people to want to start to give him more money and that's why you have his campaign manager saying, you know, we need to get more money coming in.

But if the momentum is going in the wrong direction, that contributes to a narrative around him that he's not going to be successful and then people are going to be less likely to want to try to support him.

MARTIN: We got one fast prediction. I thought what happened today or this week after these reports were filed, but I think it maybe will happen after this next debate that CNN is carrying a the end of the month, and that is you'll see the retrenchment. It was hinted out by Beto's manager there, you'll see what, you layoff staff and you go all in a place like Iowa or New Hampshire.

[12:55:05] We've seen this time and time again in campaigns where they're low on money, they're lower in the polls, and they have to sort of put the ball in the air somehow. I think somebody is going to do that.

KING: I think we're also going to lose a couple. I think we'll --

MARTIN: Of course, that too. Yes.

KING: -- we'll lose some soon and then we'll have the gambit that we're going to go to one state and play it out. But money does matter. Just quickly before we go, we put up on the screen for you here, gains and losses from the first quarter. Buttigieg, Warren, Castro, Yang, and Inslee had their percentages go up. You see those other candidates, Beto O'Rourke, Hickenlooper, Delaney, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, their fundraising going down. Momentum follows money, money follows momentum.

We'll keep on tracking that.

Thanks for joining us today in the INSIDE POLITICS. See you back here this time tomorrow. Brianna Keilar is up next. She starts after a quick break. Have a good afternoon.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:00:00]