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Inside Politics

Biden, Sanders, Warren Lead Trump Among White Women Voters; Hurricane Hunters Track Dorian As It Heads For U.S.; DNC Rejects Virtual Caucus Plans in Iowa, Nevada; Trump's Personal Assistant Abruptly Exits White House. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired August 30, 2019 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:30:00] ANNA GREENBERG, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER: Now the economy is a little uncertain and you're still dealing with these incredible costs. It's hard to feel good about the president on the economy.

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Let's talk about women. Going back in time in 2016, the president beat a woman with the help of a nine percent advantage among white women in 2016. Now, look at these numbers on the right. That's the current state of play according again to this latest Quinnipiac poll. Joe Biden is beating the president by 18 percentage points among white women, Sanders is the same and Warren 13.

Anna, what does that mean to you?

GREENBERG: Well, it's tremendously good news for Democrats. What I would say also is that if you look between 2016 and 2018, and in many cases, 2018 turnout was almost presidential, there was a big shift among women. So Trump sort of broke even -- I mean, sorry, Trump won white women. Democrats broke even with white women, maybe down two, up two depending on the poll. So there was a pretty significant shift between '16 and '18 and now you have an even bigger shift. So it's actually not, it's a trend, right? It sort of started really from the moment that he was inaugurated with the women's march.

The other thing I'd say is you have to look internally what's happening. So college-educated women have moved dramatically to the Democrats that's why Democrats picked up so many seats in these suburbs. But we also now are seeing softening among white blue-collar women and that's been a very strong source of support. There's no way you get to plus 18 if you're not doing OK with white blue-collar women.

ED GOEAS, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: Well, first of all, if you go back to the number you said, he won by nine points. Eight points with white women is about where Republicans target to come out ahead in a nationwide campaign. And he did that in the last election. We take it one step further. We watch very closely white married women which normally we win by about 20 points. The latest battleground we did he was only winning by four points.

But the interesting thing there going back to the economy is those very same women that have kind of gotten off being supportive of him, when you ask them about the economy, when you ask them about jobs, they give him a 57 and 63 percent approval rating. So, again, talk more about the economy, not just to your base but talk to these women that are getting a little bit squishy, if you will, in terms of support.

BASH: And the frustration you talked about, I hear it too, from inside Trump world, isn't just that he's not talking about it, it's that the economy is being defined by his opponents.

Before we end, I just have to get to one other issue that you've talked about and I know you follow too, which is not just where people's approval ratings are but the intensity of it. So let's just take a view towards the 2020 candidates. President Trump, 28 percent, very positive, net positive, 39. Sanders, 14, net positive, 37. Biden, very positive, 11, net positive 34. Elizabeth Warren very positive 14, net positive 31.

Let's keep that on the screen, and, Ed, explain why that's important.

GOEAS: Well, first of all, in terms of intensity, that is going to dictate who is more likely to vote in the election, number one. Number two that gets into all the economic models. I mean, all the political models in terms of can he win, can he not win, which right now all the political models are predicting that President Trump will not win re-election where the economic models are predicting he's going to win.

But I think the key is, is that shows whether you're connecting with the voters. He's always had very strong intensity amongst his base but he also has a very strong intensity amongst those that are not favorable towards him. And that's what he has to watch that that it's going to help the Democrats in the upcoming election.

GREENBERG: Well, I mean, it's a little early, we don't have a Democratic nominee yet, and people like Warren, in particular, are not particularly well-known by the general electorate. This is a Democratic primary electorate that's paying close attention so I don't look at those intensity numbers and have much concern about it. It's just way early with undefined Democrats.

BASH: More important for the incumbent.

All right, thank you both so much, so interesting. I learned a lot.

And up next, a storm chaser on how powerful and how dangerous Hurricane Dorian might be. Stay with us for that.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:38:45] BASH: The president says Hurricane Dorian is an absolute monster, and he's right. Cruise lines are now rerouting their ships to stay out of the storm's path.

To get a sense of Dorian's size and power, take a look at this. This is from NOAA, all those bursts, the lightning inside that storm. On the phone with us to talk about that is Nick Underwood. He has been a hurricane hunter for three years. So, Nick, you said you've been tracking Dorian since Sunday. What exactly does that mean for a hurricane hunter?

NICK UNDERWOOD, NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER (via telephone): So for me, it meant flying onboard NOAA's Gulfstream IV. That's one of our hurricane-hunting aircraft. This particular aircraft is out high altitude surveillance jet. So we fly up above around and in front of the storm sampling the upper atmospheric dynamics that are really going to steer where the storm goes to.

Now, in addition to that aircraft, NOAA also operates two Lockheed WP- 3D Orion which fly right through the storm, through the eyewall into the eye collecting all of that -- all of those measurements within the storm itself.

BASH: So, you use something called dropsens (ph) to track these storms. You can see -- we have a picture that you took which we're looking at here.

[12:40:03] What are those and why are they necessary?

UNDERWOOD (via telephone): So imagine a dropsen (ph) like a reverse weather balloon. So instead of floating up to the atmosphere, we launch them out of the bottom of our aircraft. They have a small parachute that deploys. And as they float down, they're collecting atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction and they're relaying all of that data back to the aircraft in realtime.

BASH: How does this storm compare to others in rank, in size, that you have tracked and hunted before?

UNDERWOOD (via telephone): So in the three years that I've been doing this, the largest storm I've chased was Irma in 2017. I was on our P- 3s for that. We were flying right through a -- you know, it was a giant category 5 storm at that time. This storm is still quite small but it is growing stronger every day.

BASH: So I have to ask you before I let you go, for most of us mere mortals, the notion of getting on a plane and going into a hurricane is terrifying and something that we would never want to do. What made you want to wake up one morning and say, oh, I'm going to be a hurricane hunter?

UNDERWOOD (via telephone): Well, a few years ago I didn't know this job existed. But I got a degree in aerospace engineering and knew I wanted to do something that was going to help people. And so this job, all of the data we collect, feeds into those computer models that predict where the storms are going to go and how strong they're going to be. And the more data we collect, the earlier we can warn people that they're going to be in harm's way.

BASH: Well, it is certainly important. Nick Underwood, thank you so much. I'm sure we at CNN will be checking back with you as the storm gets closer to Florida.

Up next, Iowa Democrats are scrambling after national officials say they plan to reject a new caucus system for the first contest of the 2020 Democratic presidential election. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:46:43] BASH: We just -- we have a word and we're talking about the situation going on in Iowa, the Iowa caucuses. So if you remember back in 2008, Hillary Clinton placed third in the Iowa caucuses and she talked about the fact that there needs to be a more expanded caucus system because what was going on left out a lot of voters in the Democratic process. So let's talk about what we're discussing which is the caucus process.

For a caucus, you have to go as a voter to an area at a specific time, stay for several hours and that is very different from a primary where a voter can stop by, cast a ballot at any point in the day.

Well, just a few minutes ago, excuse me, the Democratic National Committee officially rejected a plan in Iowa, also in Nevada, to allow virtual caucusing in 2020. That was a plan to allow people to call in and not have to actually come physically to the caucus site.

What the DNC says is that the systems in both of these states are vulnerable to hacking and to tampering because they would allow voting by phone. Now Iowa Democrats proposed this new system earlier this year in order to comply with new rules imposed by the DNC. Those rules ordered caucuses like in Iowa and Nevada to find ways to allow absentee voting.

So the first in the nation Iowa caucuses are only five months away. So this sounds like maybe a little bit technical but it is so incredibly important. I should just add that what the DNC said in the statement that we just got a few minutes ago is that it's not as if the Iowa Democratic Party can't figure it out, that the Iowa caucuses are going to move dates or threaten another very important first in the nation primary state which is New Hampshire. They're probably going to give Iowa a waiver if they can't figure out a way to allow people to vote absentee, but it's a mess.

LISA LERER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. I mean, caucuses have long been a problem for the Democratic Party. I mean, think about the mechanics of this. If you have small kids, it costs you money to caucus because you have to hire someone to watch your kids. If you work nights, you're working when it's time to caucus. It doesn't -- for a party that's concerned about increasing access, caucuses don't seem to accomplish that goal. But in Iowa, they have a long tradition and they're very attached to their caucus. So this was a way to try to, I think, expand that but, you know, the security risks are also extreme.

BASH: And let me also put into context the voter participation that we're talking about here. This is a poll from June from the Des Moines Register and asked people how likely they would be to participate in caucus night if they attend in person, 78 percent. Participate virtually, 28 percent. So a third -- participation will be a third higher if they allowed this virtual voting.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, POLITICO: Right. And so that was the main reason for Democrats saying that they should include virtual caucusing which was to expand access to underserved communities. In Nevada, in particular, I was just texting with some Latino activists there, ones that are concerned that that's where this will impact -- that it will impact that community the most. That because Nevada may no longer have -- will no longer have the virtual caucus that Latino voters will not be able to engage the way that they were hoping they were going to be able to mobilize that area, that voting bloc ahead of the caucus.

[12:50:14] BASH: And it sounds like this virtual caucus isn't going to happen. Let me show you just real quick again so we can explain why this matters. With the Iowa starting line, a political website out in Iowa listed.

So, first, if there's no virtual caucus which looks like there won't be, it limits accessibility and precincts remain crowded. Biden's chances improve. Campaigns have build strategies around the virtual option which is a big deal. Caucus is in jeopardy after 2020 perhaps. Results will be more understandable.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. I think the interesting -- at least for me, the interesting element is kind of the attempt to balance two very important issues for Democrats right now. Election security which obviously is a huge issue for them but also ballot access. And I think the reality is the reason the DNC put the rules in place or attempted to kind of push people towards a primary process which you saw on nine states that had caucuses in 2016 have flipped towards primaries is because of ballot access and it addresses the security concerns. But you're also dealing with legacy issues here.

You're dealing with the Iowa caucuses, you hit a crucial point here that cannot be overstated and that is New Hampshire and it's first in the nation primary role. I think the most interesting thing, look, Iowa is going to get a waiver and they're going to be able do their caucuses and I think that's pretty clear. In Nevada, I don't think we'll need a waiver. They still feel like they've done enough, although the concerns raised by Laura are very real.

I think the big question is what's going to happen in the next election cycle. I'm not sure how sustainable a caucus is at this point in time. And I feel like I'm going to get destroyed by my Iowa friends for saying that. But if access is the thing that matters, the issues that have been raised by underserved, oftentimes underappreciated elements of the electorate are very, very real and have to be addressed.

LERER: And Nevada has done things to improve, right? They have their caucus I think at casinos. During the day, workers are like given dispensation to go. So there are ways you can do this without risking security.

BASH: Well, they actually are doing things already. Our Dan Merica is reporting part of the reason why Nevada is probably OK is because they already planned a four-day in-person voting period for those unable to caucus.

OK, everybody, stand by as we digest this big primary caucus news.

Next, the gatekeeper to the Oval Office hands over her keys. The abrupt resignation of President Trump's personal assistant. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:56:58] BASH: Today, the personal assistance whom President Trump once called the key has left the White House. Madeleine Westerhout had been with the president since day one, sitting just across from the Oval Office. But after the president learned she had shared personal information with reporters at a recent off-the-record meeting, she had to go. The New York Times was the first to report the news overnight that she was considered, quote, separated employee Thursday and wasn't allowed to return to the White House today.

And we're back with our panel. There's so many ways to go here. Just talk in general for people who are -- because we're talking about this in the break, for people who are not familiar with the rules of the road, historically how they should be, what it means to have an off- the-record.

VIVIAN SALAMA, WHITE HOUSE REPORTER, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: Well, in theory a lot of officials at the White House and beyond, it's normal practice to have an off-the-record conversation with a reporter which essentially means they're just informing them, sometimes just to help guide their reporting but you basically take it to the grave. It is not to be published in any way. Madeleine is someone who was not really that accessible and so to hear that there was an off-the-record briefing with her, it was significant because she is somebody who really (INAUDIBLE) and can really help guide reporters.

Also, you want to build trust with people and so it was, you know, it was unfortunate to hear that there were some issues, but at the same time, we don't know what the whole -- entire story is. Were there -- was there something going on internally at the White House? Was it a reporter situation? No one really knows.

And so for that reason, that's -- it's an interesting story but also unfortunate to see someone so close to the president not there to help reporters in the future.

BASH: Yes. And let's just talk about who she is also. You said it is incredibly unusual for somebody who's that close to the president to have any interaction with the press. First of all, she's just 28. She's an assistant -- she was at the RNC. But listen to the president talking to Bob Woodward about her as a gatekeeper for him.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I never got a message, who did you ask about speaking to me? BOB WOODWARD: Well, about six people.

TRUMP: Well, if you would call Madeleine in my office -- did you speak to Madeleine?

WOODWARD: No, I didn't. But --

TRUMP: Madeleine is the key. She is the secret because she's the person --

WOODWARD. I talked to Kellyanne.

TRUMP: Well, a lot of them are afraid to come and talk to her. You know, they are busy, I'm busy but I don't mind talking to you. I would have spoken to you.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

BARRON-LOPEZ: So -- I mean, Politico reported today that Westerhout had been trying to expand that role, expand her position a bit, kind of branch out and see what else she could take on in this position that she had, sitting right outside the Oval Office. And that seems to have irked some other White House advisers that they didn't like that she was trying to expand her role. And so as we hinted earlier that it could potentially have been some internal politics at play.

SALAMA: Which is not the first time for this White House either and we've seen it in the past as well.

BASH: I mean, this White House, it's much more out there but it's not the first time that there is more to the story in any White House and in any political situation.

OK, everybody, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you so much for joining us on INSIDE POLITICS. Brianna Keilar is up right now.

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