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Inside Politics

Julian Castro Calls It Quits For 2020 Campaign; Proxy Battle Between Washington and Tehran Far From Over. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired January 02, 2020 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

OMAR JIMENEZ, CNN HOST: -- among the cities hoping to use the start of this new year and new decade to reset what's become an all too violent reality. Ryan.

RYAN NOBLES, CNN HOST: All right, Omar Jimenez live in Chigago. Omar, thank you. And thank you for joining me. "Inside Politics" with Manu Raju starts right now.

MANU RAJU, CNN HOST: Hello and welcome to "Inside Politics." I'm Manu Raju, in for John King. Thanks for joining us. Happy New Year.

Calling it quits, Julian Castro tells his supporters to keep fighting, as he officially ends his bid to become president. A proxy battle playing out between Washington and Tehran is far from over, after a violent attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. And Bernie Sanders is feeling flush, after netting nearly $35 million in three months from grass roots donors.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FAIZ SHAKIR, 2020 CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR BERNIE SANDERS: We will hold firm; we will not change a damn thing. It is working and the reason it's working is the working class believes in Donald --- in Bernie Sanders to defeat Donald Trump. You've got somebody who has built a vast grass roots network, has been fighting for the working class; he's built his credibility on it. We're not going to go into a general election and suddenly claiming that we're going to need money from millionaires and billionaires. We don't need that money.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: We begin this hour with the state of the 2020 race; a crowded field of Democratic candidates, shrinking by one today. Julian Castro, the Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development shuttering his bid for president this morning. His campaign has struggled to gain any traction in the polls and to raise enough money to stay solvent. Castro releasing a video on Twitter this morning, showing highlights from his year-long run and then ending it with this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JULIAN CASTRO, FORMER SECRETARY, HUD: So with only a month until the Iowa Caucuses, and given the circumstances of this campaign season, I have determined that it simply isn't our time. So today it's with a heavy heart and with profound gratitude that I will suspend my campaign for president.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Meanwhile, the remaining contenders are unveiling their fundraising hauls for the fourth quarter. Senator Bernie Sanders raising $34.5 million in the last three months of the year -- and remember, Sanders suffered a heart attack at the beginning of October. He even took a break from the campaign trail. But Sanders' fourth quarter haul is the largest quarterly number raised by any Democrats so far this year. It pales only in comparison to the juggernaut fundraising operation over the Trump reelection campaign, which raked in $46 million, as President Trump was being impeached.

CNN's Ryan Nobles joins me live in New York. Ryan, what are you takeaways from Bernie Sanders' huge fundraising haul in the fourth quarter?

NOBLES: Well, I think, Manu, the thing I'm most impressed by is that his numbers are growing -- and I don't mean just the raw dollar figures. He's consistently raised more money each quarter since he started his campaign about a year ago. But also the base of which he is drawing that money from is growing, his campaign saying that they averaged more than 300,000 new donors in the fourth quarter alone -- you know, the knock traditionally against Bernie Sanders as a candidate, is that his support is not necessarily wide, but deep; meaning he has a lot of supporters who are really behind him, but there's not real signs of growth.

I think now you cannot, no longer make that argument. He's been slowly making his way up the polls and now, with raising more money and adding new donors, that shows that his support is growing. You know, Manu, in December alone the Sanders' campaign raised $18 million; they had 40,000 donations just on New Years Eve. This shows that there is real momentum behind his campaign and then of course, you translate that resources, those resources into boots on the ground and organizational efforts, paid field staff; that is so important in Iowa. Manu, he almost won Iowa four years ago with virtually no level of sophisticated organization.

That is much different this time around. Obviously there's a much bigger field to compete against, but this campaign feels very confident, as you show it (INAUDIBLE). I talked to his campaign manager just a few minutes ago. They're as positive as they've ever been, since he launched his campaign and that is pretty remarkable, given where they were just a couple of months ago.

RAJU: Yeah. Real lasting power in this race; money can certainly get him there. We'll see how it shakes out. Ryan Nobles, thank you for joining us. And here with us, to share their reporting and insights, Margaret Talev with Axios, Olivier Knox with SiriusXM, Sahil Kapur with Bloomberg and Rachael Bade with The Washington Post. So let's just talk big picture about where we are with the presidential race right now. We're a month away from the Iowa Caucuses; these campaigns are really going to pick up, in terms of events and more so in Iowa, as we head into that. The poll numbers are very fluid in that state. It's unclear where -- where this is ultimately going to end up, and we're now getting this first glimpse of the money haul. Julian Castro drops out today. Sahil, how wide open is this race right now, as we head into the early voting states?

SAHIL KAPUR, POLITICAL REPORTER, BLOOMBERG: It's totally wide open and one of the most frustrating things about this is that we've seen such little quality polling in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire in the last month-and-a-half. We don't know if the people (INAUDIBLE) surge (INAUDIBLE) is still happening. We don't know if Elizabeth Warren is still flat or if she's rising or if she's falling and who knows where Joe Biden is? The first two states are his weak point. If he craters there, then that could have major implications for him after that.

[12:05:00]

So we need some new polling on the early states to really know where things are and hopefully in the next few weeks we'll get that. In terms of the money haul, the Bernie Sanders' haul, $35 million is absolutely extraordinary. Again it seems that he will be a force in this race, either as a winner or as a king maker, much as he was in 2016. He can influence the direction of the party, the party's platform, and the eventual nominee.

RAJU: Yeah, and if he doesn't win these early states, he can certainly stay in as long as he wants, assuming he doesn't run through all the cash. We'll all, of course, see these cash-on-hand numbers, which also -- more significant in a lot of ways than the total haul, because it shows how much money is left for these candidates to campaign on.

But of course, the news today, Julian Castro dropping out; not a huge surprise, because he had been struggling in the polls. He hadn't been making the debate stage. But he did have an impact about some of the rhetoric in this race, particularly on immigration. He pushed more liberal immigration policy; he supported decriminalizing border crossings. That's something that virtually every candidate who is campaigning agreed with him on. He said this back in the debate earlier this year.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CASTRO: Let's be very clear. The reason that they're separating these little children from their families is that they're using Section 1325 of that act, which criminalizes coming across the border, to incarcerate the parents and then separate them. Some of us on this stage have called to end that section, to terminate it. Some, like Congressman O'Rourke, have not. And I want to challenge all of the candidates to do that.

(END VIDEO CLIP) RAJU: Now, the next day, then June debate, all of the candidates in that second debate were asked whether they agreed or they believed that these undocumented immigrants should have access to healthcare. They all said that undocumented immigrants should; that's a much different position than the Democrats took back in -- as the Obamacare, the Affordable Healthcare Act was passing when they took a hard line on that issue, but clearly the party has shifted in that direction. What kind of impact has that had, do you --?

RACHAEL BADE, CONGRESSIONAL REPORTER, THE WASHINGTON POST: Republicans certainly seized on that right away, to say, look, Democrats, they want to give free healthcare to undocumented immigrants coming to this country. But I think that moment really showed how Castro, even though he was unable to really break into that top tier, he was able to sort of create this litmus test for Democrats.

They had to answer; do they believe that crossing the border should be criminally, some sort of criminal charge? Or should they decriminalize that? And I think that that shows -- this guy's not going away any time soon. He might be dropping out of the race, but I remember back in 2016, Hillary Clinton also looked at him as a potential running mate. We could see some of the next nominee for the Democrats pick, you know, someone like Castro himself. Obviously, with him dropping out, there's a question of diversity in the field.

(CROSSTALK)

There's a lot of candidates who are leaving the race, which was at one point, was the most diverse field we saw of Democratic presidential candidates, a lot of minorities dropping out, including Castro. And so we'll have to see, does he come back when people start looking for running mates.

RAJU: Yeah. And that, of course, came up in the last debate. Cory Booker didn't make that. Andrew Yang was the one minority candidate who made that clear and during the debate -- and look at the numbers that Andrew Yang and others posted in the last quarter. Now we don't have Joe Biden's numbers yet. We don't have Elizabeth Warren's numbers yet. But significant, and you look at the way that this shaking down. As we said, $34.5 million for Bernie Sanders. Beyond anyone else, so far in the Democratic side of the race for the entire year of 2019 -- Buttigieg under him, $24.7 million. Andrew Yang, $16.5 million.

(CROSSTALK)

What do you take away from that?

MARGARET TALEV, POLITICS AND WHITE HOUSE EDITOR, AXIOS: Manu, you can't overlook this number. And he really came into his own in the last debate. He's an appealing candidate for a lot of younger voters and he reflects the fact that among Democratic voters, although there is the intensity of this desire to nominate someone who can beat Donald Trump, there is also an intensity of desire to have a candidate that they feel excited about and a lot of voters are still searching for that candidate and to some extent, Andrew Yang, I think, represents that.

I mean, he is one of the big takeaways from these fundraising numbers. But Sanders is probably the more important one, because of the impact that he can have as a potential nominee himself, as a spoiler -- we talk a lot about the idea of a brokered convention and whether or not, you know, Michael Bloomberg, among other candidates, is holding out for that scenario. But it's (LAUGHS) really always been and still is Bernie Sanders; he's the one they have to watch, if it came down to that -- he has got a basic support that is growing, not shrinking. It is (ph) unerodable, apparently at this point. Every time Elizabeth Warren weakens a little bit, because of her handling of Medicare For All questions or what have you. Bernie Sanders only seems to solidify, and that's what these numbers reflect.

RAJU: And speaking of numbers, you took a look at the Trump campaign -- fundraising highlights; it is staggering. Especially compared to where the Democrats are at this moment. Now the president essentially has campaign and fundraised since he became president. This is unlike past presidents; he's breaking precedent in doing that and this is the numbers from the fourth quarter -- $46 million. That's $12 million more than Bernie Sanders, the highest on the Democratic side.

[12:10:00]

But the cash-on-hand number, $102.7 million. I mean, this is a president who -- I mean, if you're a Democrat, how do you make the case to the voters that you can compete toe-to-toe with the president, especially when you're struggling to raise money, the way some of these other candidates are.

OLIVIER KNOX, CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT, SIRIUSXM: By aggregating the entire fields. By looking at the donations to all of the Democratic candidates, not just one, not just Bernie -- the entire field. Because that represents the Democrats' donor universe. You know, I've seen a lot of pieces in the last few days, in the last few months, saying don't underestimate Donald Trump's reelection prospects. I don't know anyone who does underestimate his reelection prospects.

I know, I've seen a lot of analysis about the economy, being so strong. It's such an asset. We've seen his money flow. So I don't know who out there is underestimating the president's reelection prospects, but (LAUGHS) they obviously shouldn't.

BADE: Let's not remember, I mean, impeachment going on right now; there's going to be a trial in the Senate. Trump has shown that he can use this to really motivate his base. Not a single Republican broke in the House or the Senate, to vote against him or to vote to impeach him. And likely, we won't see any in the Senate, obviously they haven't voted yet. But he's able to use that to his benefit and we'll see that potentially in the fundraising numbers for him.

TALEV: Olivier is right. If there was only one Democrat right now, Donald Trump would be getting a run for his money, but there's not. So the race is like maybe down to 14 now. Is that the right number?

(CROSSTALK)

That's a lot of kind of -- that's going to gobble up a lot of -- any leading Democrats' ability to kind of take this and run with it is that they still need to get through that field.

RAJU: And the question is that when they, as these voters decide or to make the case -- how you would run a general election? What's your pitch going to be to more moderate voters, independent voters in swing states? The Bernie Sanders' campaign manager was on last hour talking to a colleague, Ryan Nobles, about exactly what he would do to change, come general election time. Here's what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHAKIR: We will hold firm. We will not change a damn thing. It is working. And the reason it's working is the working class believes in Donald Tr- -- in Bernie Sanders to defeat Donald Trump. We will do our part if we are the nominee; to extend the open hand, to welcome people into this movement. We are doing so now. If there's people out there who would like to join and endorse Bernie Sanders, we welcome you right now. But we will do our part, to make sure that we are bringing this party together, returning it to its roots -

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Not change a damn thing. That's according to the campaign manager of Bernie Sanders -- but that's what scares a lot of Democrats. If he wins the nomination, a lot of Democrats, particularly in Washington here, are worried that he would not "change a damn thing".

KAPUR: Right. It's certainly a risky bet for Democrats to take, because this is not a tested path. He would, Bernie Sanders' general election campaign would look very different than anything Democrats, certainly in the last several decades have done. It means bringing in lots of new voters, lots of independents, who are left of Center; maybe very, very Left of Center -- don't think the Democratic Party cares about them, but think Bernie Sanders cares about them. Some of this is showing up in polls, but is it going to be enough?

How many mainstream Democrats are they going to lose? How many of those Romney/Clinton voters in the suburbs, who handed Democrats the House majority, are going to show up and pull the lever for Bernie Sanders? These are the kinds of questions the Democratic establishment figures are asking and worrying about -- whether it's Bernie Sanders and to an extent also Elizabeth Warren.

RAJU: And the question, too, with all this money that's coming in, how much do these self-funding billionaire candidates use that to their advantage? To argue that they have the resources to compete. Do you sense that this could have any -- could be helpful in any way? To Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg, (LAUGHS) who have struggled in the polls and had some impact here and there, but they're dropping a ton of their own money to make the argument that they can compete with the president, because they have the pocketbook to do that. TALEV: I mean, I think it's tactically helpful to the extent that it stretches out the primary season longer. Bernie Sanders is unlikely to clean up in South Carolina. Although (LAUGHS) who knows? But so the longer this goes on and the longer there's a contest, the more time that a Steyer or a Bloomberg has to test the proposition that if you spend your own money, and that the airwaves play in unusual states, that you can put something together -- but it does show the difference of a small donor grass roots campaign versus someone who's not had the time or kind of the political profile to engage like that on their own -- they're really different approaches to running for president and it's going to show up in stark contrast as we look into summers.

RAJU: Yeah, it really is. And so much that can change and will change in the weeks ahead. But for us next, the president's Senate Impeachment trial and how it could sideline some 2020 Democrats.

[12:14:35]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

RAJU: An ongoing game of impeachment chicken between the top Republican in the Senate and the Speaker of the House. There no signs today of progress in how to conduct the president's impeachment trial in the Senate. But while Congress sits on its hands, the president is content to vent his impeachment anger and fuel conspiracies.

He Tweeted the witch hunt; is spiraling badly, but still going on. The president said this morning, before again accusing his opponents of committing treason against him. Now there's a lot that's actually wrong with the president's words, but the Tweet is part of his constant spin campaign, that his Ukraine call was perfect and he did nothing wrong. Now a big question -- will the president force the Republicans to call witnesses to back up his defense? Back here with the panel now.

The president -- we had the scenes, both the House, White House and Democrats in the House have -- prepare for the possibility of a January trial; it's still possible it could happen. But the stalemate is real. I mean, Pelosi has said she wants to understand what the trial will look like before they name Impeachment Managers and before they send the Articles of Impeachment over to the Senate. Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell are at a stalemate about what the trial will look like, because of Schumer's demand for witnesses and documents upfront.

But the question is if there's still an impasse, next week when Congress does return, can Pelosi withstand the pressure to withhold the Articles indefinitely?

[12:20:00]

BADE: I think the pressure is going to increase ten-fold on her to send over those Articles. I mean, the president and Congressional Republicans are sort of latching onto this argument that she is treating Trump differently than President Clinton was treated. And they're sort of arguing that by holding the Articles in the House, the Democrats are trying to keep the president from being acquitted and that that is not fair. And that argument is clearly resonating with Republican voters, at least right now.

We have some new reporting, my colleague Mike DeBonis is reporting this morning that Schumer and McConnell have not spoken at all over the holiday break, so the standoff is continuing. And that comes despite a number of good stories. The New York Times says it's great, you know, take out on this meeting where Trump was talking to Bolton, Mulvaney, in the Oval Office specifically about Ukraine and assistance and that obviously increased or sort of bolstered this argument that they need to hear from firsthand witnesses in the Senate trial. That's what Schumer wants, that's what Democrats want. But McConnell is not moving. He says, let's get the trial started. That's what we did with President Clinton. And then we'll decide on witnesses down the road -- and so far that argument has held.

RAJU: And it's going to continue, that argument is going to continue, as Schumer did Tweet this, from December 31st, speaking to what you were saying, that Senator McConnell and Senate Republicans "Support a fair trial with the witnesses and documents we requested. All we are asking to get all the facts out. The American people deserve to know the truth," that's the same position that they have had since the president was impeached by the House on those two counts.

But the president wants a trial to happen. He wants to happen. Mitch McConnell's (LAUGHS) content that it never happens and they can just continue to confirm the president's judges. But the president keeps demanding this trial happen. Does that in any way undercut the leverage that Mitch McConnell has to try to hold firm against Schumer's demands?

KAPUR: Well, the leverage Mitch McConnell has and the leverage Democrats would have, all depends on whether a critical mass of Senate Republicans come out and support this demand for witnesses and documents. So far we've heard two Senate Republicans, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins suggest that they're a little troubled, a little disturbed, and the words of Murkowski by Senator McConnell saying essentially he's going to work in lock step with the White House -- suggesting that he, you know, that this won't really be a fair trial and that he's not impartial.

They need four Senate Republicans; Democrats do, in order to have, in order to force McConnell's hand. McConnell knows that if four people don't come out, then Democrats don't have a whole lot to work with and if Speaker Pelosi withholds those Articles, then the president and his allies are going to continue this drumbeat of saying, well, they know that they can't actually convict me, which is why they're holding it. So yes, there is pressure on --

(CROSSTALK)

RAJU: Yeah. And that's a very good point. Because Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski did raise concerns about Mitch McConnell's coordination with the White House, but notably, they didn't say, we need witnesses, we need Mick Mulvaney, we need John Bolton, we need all of these witnesses, that Chuck Schumer's -- we're not siding with Chuck Schumer, but this is the strength of Mitch McConnell; he's able to keep his (ph) confidants mostly in line and some (INAUDIBLE) saying right now we're not seeing any mass defections, really hardly any from Senate Republicans right now.

TALEV: Well, his conference has a choice to make. Do they want to line up behind Mitch McConnell or do they want to line up behind (LAUGHS) Donald Trump?

(CROSSTALK)

So far there have been a line up behind Mitch McConnell. There are two dates on the calendar and they're basically the same date, right, that we should be looking at; it's early February. It's the date when the House Speaker Pelosi has invited Donald Trump to come and deliver the State of the Union Address. And it's the date of the Iowa Caucuses. And so you have got this scenario where if this is still going on before you get to that point -- anything could happen with the president's State of the Union Address.

And it's going to take two of the frontrunners and some of the other remaining candidates out of play, potentially, while allowing, you know, Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden sort of (INAUDIBLE) --

(CROSSTALK)

RAJU: And this is the question that the candidates keep getting on the campaign trail. How are you going to deal with being a candidate for (INAUDIBLE) campaigning in the Iowa Caucuses -- while having to be in Washington probably six days a week for the Senate trial and they all continue to say that they will be back in Washington; that comes first.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I took an oath of office to uphold the Constitution of the United States of America. Some things are more important than politics. And that oath is one of them. So if there is an impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate, I will be there.

SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-MN), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't think they're going to hold it against you if my husband is standing here that last week and I'm here on Skype, on some screen. I mean, that's what we're going to have to do. Because this is too important.

SEN. MICHAEL BENNET (D-CO), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: All of us have a constitutional obligation we have to fulfill and there's just no way around that. So we're going to figure out how to walk and chew gum at the same time.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

RAJU: There's still a lot of questions though. There's debates, the State of the Union will occur, then the Iowa Caucuses in early February. But do you think there's actually real apprehension for, among these candidates about having to be in Washington and not in the living rooms of voters at a critical time?

KNOX: Not all of them. I think the ones with the big organization, big social media, more endorsements for those the pain will be minimized. For the ones who are, you know, maybe a bit behind in the field or not polling well, it's much more important for them to be out there doing some of the retail politicking. And think about it.

[12:25:00]

If you're like a Michael Bennet, during the Senate trial, you sit there quietly. You can't even ask questions verbally. You've got to write them down and have them handed to the Chief Justice. You are, I mean obviously you can do press conferences every day if you wanted to, but you are really sidelined. You can't even -- you can't even use the cameras that are trained on the Senate Impeachment Trial to, you know, to advance your campaign.

RAJU: Yeah. And you'll probably find a way to try to advance their campaign, I'm sure.

(LAUGHTER)

But up next, is President Trump seeing the limits of his brand of diplomacy, right as he gears up for reelection?

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