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Democrats Fan Across Iowa In Campaign's Final Hours; Senate Votes Down Issuing Subpoenas For Impeachment Evidence; Why Most Vulnerable Republican Senators Voted With Trump; How Iowa Democrats Are Making Up Their Minds. Aired 8-9a ET

Aired February 02, 2020 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:15]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, CNN HOST (voice-over): No new impeachment witnesses.

PAT CIPOLLONE, WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: The Senate can not allow this to happen.

SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): This country is headed towards the greatest cover-up since Watergate.

KING: Plus, the final verdict comes Wednesday.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Congressional Democrats are obsessed with a deranged witch-hunt hoax.

KING: And Iowa is ready to kick off campaign 2020.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CNADIDATE: We're asking you to join us to transform this country.

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Character of the nation is on the ballot.

PETE BUTTIGIEG (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have to be ready to actually turn the page.

SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We can power or we can fight back.

KING: INSIDE POLITICS, the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters, now.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: And welcome to INSIDE POLITICS. I'm John King. To our viewers in the United States and around the world, thank you for sharing your Sunday.

In the moment, the latest on the Trump impeachment trial, closing arguments are set for tomorrow. The final votes for Wednesday afternoon. The State of the Union Address sandwiched in there on Tuesday, making for a remarkable week ahead in Washington.

First, though, we are live in Des Moines this morning because Iowa holds its caucuses tomorrow, the first votes on the presidential nominating process. For Democrats, the number of delegates at stake here, quite small, but Iowa is more about bragging rights and momentum out of the gate.

And the urgency this weekend underscores the high stakes. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren competing for liberal votes.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANDERS: We are the campaign that is talking to the pain and the heartache of the working class of this country.

WARREN: This is no time for small ideas. This is no time to nibble around the edges of big problems. This is the time to meet these challenges head on.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg angling more to the middle.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: There's an old saying, talk is cheap. Well, in politics, talk is sometimes very expensive. Especially if you don't tell people how you're going to pay for what you're promising them.

BUTTIGIEG: It's worth pointing out actually to your supporters -- your friends supporting Warren and Sanders that the idea of Medicare for all, whether you want it or not, would mean 100 percent job cuts for anybody who works at any health insurance company in the country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Iowa's caucuses are very unique. More than 1,700 precincts statewide, and a candidate needs to have 15 percent support at each of the sites to be viable, which means there's a fierce competition for those first choice doesn't pass the first test. And so, therefore, a fierce effort by candidates on the bubble, to win over the late deciders.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-MN), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Look, I know that we're in a primary right now but one of your jobs is to look at how we'll win in the general. That is your job. My profound advice is this, we better not screw this up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: With us this Sunday to share their reporting and their insights, CNN's M.J. Lee, Jonathan Martin of "The New York Times", CNN's Jeff Zeleny, and Jackie Kucinich of "The Daily Beast". Here we are, in the final day for these candidates to campaign, you

see it in that sound, the liberals are trying to say go big, go bold, competing amongst themselves, the more centrist candidates saying, slow down. Can they win in November?

What's Iowa going to do?

JONATHAN MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: And what's striking is to hear the names of Sanders on the lips of Mayor Pete.

Look, if you're in the final stretch of a campaign, you don't mention the other candidates' name unless you're trying to make up ground against that candidate, because that candidate takes in the lead. That was kind of I thought a reveal this week, was Mayor Pete Buttigieg mentioning Biden and Sanders especially by name. And I think that's where the race is right now.

I think Senator Sanders has gotten strong support among younger voters and progressives. You saw it at a massive rally he had last night in Cedar Rapids, probably the largest in the campaign so far.

No other candidate is filling up a venue like he did last night and I think that speaks to his appeal among younger voters and progressives here and that could be enough tomorrow for him.

JACKIE KUCINICH, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: You know, he also has the advantage of having done this before and having people who have been campaigning for him for literally four years --

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Yes.

KUCINICH: -- have not stopped, have been fighting the same battles over and over again in order to put Sanders over the line with the expectation that he would run again. Those are the voters I kept running into and to a person I'd ask -- well, who did you support the last cycle -- Bernie, it's always Bernie.

ZELENY: And the question here, I think, is turnout, which was always the question in election, but Bernie Sanders has been making the point. He said, we'll know very early on Monday night if the turnout is big, I win.

[08:05:02]

If it's small, I lose.

So, he's making that point, but I'm still struck by the number of undecided voters out there. People, you know, someone who is also in Des Moines this week, actually just across campus here at Drake University, was Donald Trump. His name comes up again and again and again, about which Democrat is strongest to beat him. Of course, that's the argument that Joe Biden is making. Not very subtly. I mean, he said, I'm a guy who can beat him.

So, that is going on. But undecideds going into the weekend and they'll be going into caucus rooms -- MARTIN: Lots of them.

ZELENY: -- potentially on the site as well.

M.J. LEE, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, speaking of the undecided voters, there was such an interesting moment this week where Joe Biden told a voter if I haven't swayed you today I probably won't sway you. I think he's only partially correct about that. I do think you're absolutely right that there are some undecideds who will be undecided until they literally step into that caucus room.

But what Biden could do in that room even though he's obviously not in there is by having a good showing, right, for so many of the voters who I talked to who say they can't make up their minds, what they will do is go with, one, their gut feeling that night, but also by serving the room and getting a sense of, well, who -- which of the candidates in this room actually has the support behind them, and I think the decision will come down to backing the person who they think can actually meet the threshold.

KING: And that's what's interesting for people watching around the country and especially people maybe watching around the world today, these rules here are very unique, in the sense that you show up, let's say you're for Andrew Yang or Amy Klobuchar. You show up, there are eight or 10 of you, but that's not enough, it's not 15 percent at your specific caucus site.

Then you have to make a choice, do you stay with that candidate or do you go find another candidate? So the horse trading and the lobbying on site is going to be fabulous.

And to the point about Senator Sanders, you know, Senator Sanders did run four years ago. Some people thought, well, when he runs again, the Democrats are going to be looking for something new. He sounds very much the same and a lot of Democrats here say guess what? It's working.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANDERS: We are taking on the entire political establishment, both the Republican establishment and the Democratic establishment.

(CHEERSD ND APPLAUSE)

We are taking on Wall Street and the insurance companies, and the drug companies, and the fossil fuel industry, and the whole damn 1 percent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: And you know all of the candidates see this. All of the candidates see this, because they get from their people, but Elizabeth Warren especially who had a great summer who appears to be plateaued or a little bit struggling of late, but she has a great organization here. So, we'll see what happens on caucus night.

But she gets it. She is trying to tell people who might have been for her in the summer who drifted back to Bernie Sanders to please come back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WARREN: I've heard from you. You've pressed notes into my hand. You have whispered dreams into my ear. We're down to the final strokes here, but understand we will -- we must come together as a party and beat Donald Trump. That is our job. Yes.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

And I've got a plan for that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: One of the questions always and it can be different cycle to cycle is how many tickets out of Iowa in the sense that you have Iowa, you have New Hampshire. The first four contests are spread out individually and then the calendar becomes a blur when you need momentum and money.

How many tickets out of Iowa? Do you get two liberal tickets out of Iowa?

ZELENY: I think so. A lot of candidates have already dropped out. If you look at the full big picture, a lot of the -- you know, the Joe Bidens from years gone by, Chris Dodds and Bill Richardson, they're already out of the race. So, everyone I expect will stay in regardless. But they will not stay in the shape and strength.

There's no question that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will go forward. All the others will as well, but one thing watching on caucus night. Look at the uncommitted supporters. Campaigns are frantically telling people do not go into the caucus room undecided because that could become viable. What that means, you know, it would send a bad sign that you're not happy with these candidates here.

But I was talking to an Iowa candidate who had these pieces of mail. Check that out, for the last six days.

KING: Mail for everybody.

ZELENY: Mail from all of the candidates so that's what people are being bombarded here.

KING: Wow. All of them.

ZELENY: Yes, and it's all the candidates, so they're having a hard time making up the minds but look at what the candidates are saying here.

Jonathan is right about Mayor Pete Buttigieg, calling us rebels by name. He's not done that before until now.

KING: Let's listen to that. I think it's important that you get a sense listening to Biden and Buttigieg, they might be thinking we should have started this earlier. They underestimated Bernie Sanders. Listen to the mayor.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUTTIGIEG: I have seen Vice President Biden making the case that we cannot afford to take a risk on a new person right now. Meanwhile, Senator Sanders is offering an approach that suggests that we either have to choose between a revolution or the status quo.

[08:10:04]

I'm here to make the case that history has taught us that the greatest risk we could take going into a high stakes election would be to fall back on the familiar when we're dealing with something that's completely new in our politics like this president.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: More often than not, the Democrats have gone younger and gone next generation, new generation. The interesting thing about this race is for a long time, it's been Biden and Sanders, known entities at the top, Mayor Pete is trying to break through, trying to shake Democrats to say, don't be afraid.

MARTIN: The goldilocks approach is not too hot, not too cold, I'm not too left, I'm not too sort of staid and traditional, status quo, I'm something different, and I think that's the pitch. I think he's trying to find a way to regain the mojo he had at the end of last year.

But, John, I think you mentioned Senator Sanders. If he wins here by any decent margin, and catapult into New Hampshire and wins there, and he starts the race 2-0, the Democratic establishment is going to be deeply concerned, to put it mildly, about his strength. I think you will see all kinds of hand-wringing along the lines of the 2016 Trump experience of, why didn't we move sooner to try to stop his momentum?

It was clear when "The Register" had their poll pretty early in January that he had really surged here. The fact that nobody really touched him except for, I guess Pete there at the very end, but nobody --

ZELENY: And a super PAC as well is out there saying he's a risky choice.

MARTIN: But only at the very end, though, and not with a huge buy, you know?

KUCINICH: And the other interesting thing that Pete has been doing that you haven't -- that -- he's -- recently is that, you know, we can't make promises that we can't keep. And a lot of voters I spoke to yesterday liked the fact he was forward looking but also has a pragmatic message.

KING: All right. We'll come back to this later. More on the candidates as we go through the day, but first -- next, on the impeachment trial, the Republicans refuse to allow new witnesses or documents. Yet, they can't wrap it up as quickly as the president wanted.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:16:03]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN ROBERTS, CHIEF JUSTICE OF THE UNITED STATES: The yeas are 49, the nays are 51. The motion is not agreed to.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: That show of Republican loyalty Friday means there will be no new witnesses or new documents allowed at President Trump's impeachment trial. That despite new ad directly relevant revelations from the former national security adviser, John Bolton, and despite the release of more emails detailing the president's order to freeze military aid to Ukraine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): No witnesses, no documents. An impeachment trial is a perfidy. It's a grand tragedy, one of the worst tragedies that the Senate has ever overcome. America will remember this day unfortunately where the Senate did not live up to its responsibilities, where the Senate turned away from truth and went along with a sham trial.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: A deal struck after that witness vote Friday put the trial on hold for the weekend. Closing arguments now Monday. Senators then have two days to deliver remarks on impeachment if they wish. Tuesday night is the president's important State of the Union Address.

The final vote on the impeachment articles is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

The president's most loyal supporters ignore the facts presented at the trial and emphasize the politics.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): I went to the school of hard knocks and you know what I believe about all this? It was a bunch of partisan bullshit in the House, and it continued in the Senate. It's going to end on Wednesday. The president is gong to get acquitted and it's going to blow up in their face.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: With us now from Washington to share their reporting and their insights, Julie Hirschfeld Davis of "The New York Times", Rachael Bade at "The Washington Post", and CNN's Vivian Salama.

Julie, let me start with you. What's been interesting, you see Senator Graham using words we probably shouldn't have played on a Sunday morning, but just the president, fine, this is all the Democrats, this is all partisan, other Republicans have said, no, what the president did was wrong or inartful or inappropriate.

We're going to have two days where senators can go to the floor and deliver remarks on impeachment. We know we're going to hear a lot of damning things from the Democrats. How many Republicans are going to stand up do we think and say, Mr. President, please, please, this was wrong, don't do it again?

JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I don't think we're going to hear a lot of direct appeals to the president in these closing statements. I think the point here for Republicans is to explain why they are voting the way they're voting, to maybe explain why they voted they did on witnesses, why they didn't think they needed any more evidence to proceed here and then, of course, to explain the fact that they're ultimately probably more likely than not, almost all of them, or all of them are going to vote to acquit him in that vote on Wednesday.

I think they're in the mode, many of them as we saw in this past week, of sort of acknowledging that, you know, his behavior was maybe not perfect. Some of the Republicans are now coming forward very openly and saying that. But they're really focusing on this idea of this is a remedy, that's an extreme remedy, removing someone from office, particularly this close to an election, and they simply are not comfortable doing that.

So, I think we have seen that dramatic shift away from he didn't do anything wrong, they're not going to be on this -- you know, it was a perfect call kind of mode that the president would like them to be, but they're also very far away from sort of conceding that this was behavior that should have warranted removal. I don't expect for them to do much chiding of the president.

KING: All right. So here's an example of one senator trying to thread that needle. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, but he's retiring. So he'll leave after this election year, he won't be there. So if the president gets mad at that, Lamar Alexander can take it.

But listen here how he tries to say, crime committed, punishment too extreme.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. LAMAR ALEXANDER (R-TN): Well, if you have eight witnesses who say someone left the scene of an accident, why do you need nine? I mean, it's -- the question for me was do I need more evidence to conclude that the president did what he did?

[08:20:02] And I concluded, no.

I think it was wrong. Inappropriate was the way I'd say improper crossing the line. And then the only question left is, who decides what to do about that?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: So, Rachael Bade, Lamar Alexander's vote against witnesses was critical because of his stature in the Senate, because of his standing with fellow Republicans. If he had decided, I want witnesses, they probably would have gotten to the finish line. If you look, the four key votes here, Lamar Alexander was a no. Collins was a yes. Lisa Murkowski also a no and Mitt Romney, a yes.

You have some great reporting in "The Post" about how Mitch McConnell worked the president on this one and said, sir, let me do it. Leave them alone, right?

RACHAEL BADE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. I really think that the past few weeks, this has been a real test of their relationship. I mean, Mitch McConnell and President Trump, they couldn't be more polar opposites. Trump likes to over-share on Twitter, McConnell, even his leadership team doesn't know what he's going to do, he keeps his card so close, and doesn't -- is not very revealing.

But on this specific impeachment strategy, he has been talking to Trump since, you know, October, November, trying to tell him, let's not do witnesses. I know you want to use the trial to go after Hunter Biden. I know you want to tweet at Mitt Romney and like try to put pressure on some of the moderate swing votes not to vote against you. But lay off. Lay off them for now. Give them space, and trust me when I say the best thing for you is no witnesses.

There was actually a phone conversation over the holiday break in which McConnell said to the president, I know you're getting advice from all different people right now, but you got to know that I know my conference better than anyone else. And Trump said, I know and I agree with you, you're going to take the lead. And so, that's basically what we saw happen here.

And you know, it's funny. You know, you play that Lamar Alexander, a lot of people looked at him as a swing vote. You know, I don't know that leadership was worried about him because he's so close with Mitch McConnell and, you know, they have been friends for so long. I don't think a lot of people thought he would ever flip.

And because of that, they felt good that they would win on the witness vote, most of the time. John Bolton threw some wild cards there but they were able to quickly bring the party back together and I think it just speaks to both the power of Trump and the Republicans not willing to go against him, but also the power of Mitch McConnell and his knowledge of his own conference.

KING: Right.

And so, the question, Vivian, are Republicans shamed by what comes out after? Democrats kept making the argument Bolton is going to publish this work, other material will come out within days, if not weeks, and certainly months. The Democrats argue, you will regret this and you will be ashamed of this.

One of the things we learned late Friday night, late Friday night, think about the timing here, they vote Friday afternoon, no witnesses. Late Friday night, the Trump Justice Department admits in a court filing, it is withholding some emails, 24 of them.

The documents in this category are emails that reflect communications by either the president, the vice president or the president's immediate advisers regarding presidential decision making about the scoop, the duration and purpose of the hold on military assistance to the Ukraine. So, the risks for these senators is when the documents come out and when they will, when the Bolton book comes out, and it will, that the new evidence in front of them is going to make a lot of people think how did you not open up the trial and learn the facts?

VIVIAN SALAMA, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: I think there are senators that are grappling with that question already, John, and that's something that Alexander said there are details, particularly with withholding aid to Ukraine he's not comfortable with. But at the end of the day, he did not feel that any of the evidence that's been put forward so far has risen to the impeachable offense.

I think that you're going to continue to hear some of those arguments. Of course, we have to see what the rest of the contents and the John Bolton book are going to be. And how damning they could be -- they are or aren't to the president. Already, what we know it has made the senators very uncomfortable obviously and to the point that it thrusts this idea of calling witnesses back on to the Senate floor this week almost had a couple of Republicans that almost sided with the Democrats on that. The more that comes out.

So, obviously, this is something that they continue to grapple with and the more that it comes out, they're going to, but at the end of the day, their objective is to go full steam ahead toward this election, to try to get a Republican president re-elected as president and that's their priority.

And so, for them, dealing with these issues in an election year is just not something they want to even consider.

KING: Sticking with the president is a safer choice they think than breaking with the president. More on that in just a moment.

When we come back, the trial outcome is not in doubt but for half a dozen or so senators in tough 2020 race, impeachment votes do carry some extra risk.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:29:11]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SENATE CLERK: Ms. Collins.

SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-ME): Aye.

SENATE CLERK: Aye.

Ms. Ernst, no.

Mr. Gardner --

SEN. CORY GARDNER (R-CO): No.

SENATE CLERK: No.

Mrs. Loeffler.

SEN. KELLY LOEFFLER (R-GA): No.

SENATE CLERK: No.

Ms. McSally, no.

Mr. Tillis.

SEN. THOM TILLIS (R-NC): No.

SENATE CLERK: No.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: So what those Republican senators have in common? All of them are up for election or re-election this year in 2020. So, their impeachment votes will reverberate throughout the campaign.

Let's take a look at a map and focus on a few of these. This is the 2016 presidential results map.

So if you're Susan Collins in Maine, up there in the top right, Donald Trump lost your state in 2016. So, you're voting against him, you're trying to appeal to Democrats and independents, we'll sees if it works.

[08:29:56]

If you're Cory Gardner out in Colorado, the President lost your state too, back four years ago. You voted with the President knowing you don't want to break with the Trump base.

For Joni Ernst in Iowa, Martha McSally in Arizona -- those examples there -- their bet is yes, my state might be close but I need the Trump base. The President won them last time. Let's hope he wins them this time.

The black circle is Alabama. Democrat Doug Jones trying to run for re- election in that state which we know the President will win.

Why is this a difficult choice? Ticket splitting is in decline in America.

Let's show you some other numbers. Back in 1988, 17 states voted one way for president and a different way for senate.

Look at 2016. You see the decline from 1988 to the present. It didn't happen at all in 2016. The polarization of American politics in the Trump age.

So if you're on the ballot this year and you're a senator, your guess is how the Presidential race goes in your state is probably tied to your fate. There may be one or two exceptions.

And Julie Davis, that's what makes it fascinating.

Susan Collins deciding I'm going to break with the President but most Republicans saying, you know what, it's going to be risky. It's going to be a tough year, but I'm safer with him than against him.

JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS, CONGRESSIONAL EDITOR, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": Absolutely. And we saw all the polls in the run-up to this vote on witnesses that, you know, the vast majority of the public and that includes many Independent voters who all of the senators will probably need some of to be able to win again in November were very much in favor of hearing from witnesses and yet they made the calculation that the danger of losing the support of the President's base, losing the support of core Republicans in their state, most of them, was more dangerous and likely going to be more detrimental to their re-election chances than losing some those Independents, losing some of the people in the middle.

Obviously Susan Collins was an exception but we don't know how she's going to vote on acquittal or conviction. She very well may vote to acquit which means she has voted against the President on this witnesses question but ultimately may be voting in his favor.

The question is whether people will credit her for that or whether she has already lost so much of the trust of those moderates and Independents in Maine in part because of her vote on Brett Kavanaugh as well that that's a lost cause for her as well.

So she's at great risk whatever she does. I think the others clearly made the calculation that losing the Republican base was more dangerous.

RACHAEL BADE, CONGRESSIONAL REPORTER, "THE WASHINGTON POST": Yes. Just to jump in there --

KING: And so you look at some of the headlines -- oh, please, go ahead.

BADE: Sorry. I was just saying to add to that the really interesting thing about a lot of these 2020ers is that not only were they sticking with the President, but a lot of them were actually driving this strategy and outwardly advocating for the strategy of let's get this trial over with. Let's not bring in witnesses.

I mean, there was a private meeting after the President's defense wrapped up their sort of presentation where the senators all huddled in a room on one afternoon. And it was those 2020ers -- Thom Tillis and Cory Gardner who stood up and said we don't want to hear from witnesses anymore. We want this to be over with.

And Thom Tillis, you know -- again a really competitive race. I was talking to him, I think that day or the morning after and I said, well, will you say that what Trump did was not ok, even if you're not going to vote to, you know, remove -- or if you're going to vote to acquit him.

And these swing state Republicans wouldn't say if what Trump did was wrong. He said that's not my job. I'm here to judge on impeachment and I don't need to comment on that.

And I just think that that's so telling. The NRSC, the campaign arm for the Senate Republicans, they looked at polling on this and they found that people in these states are not following impeachment so they're really making a gamble saying we're all in with the President and it's not going to hurt us.

(CROSSTALKING)

KING: And we're going now just into February. November seems a long way off. They're hoping they can put it in the rearview mirror even if it is controversial.

Vivian -- one of the big questions is which President Trump do we get in the State of the Union address tomorrow night? After the acquittal on Wednesday, does he try to be conciliatory, does he try to gloat? If you look at his Twitter feed, he's mad, he's raw. He's taking issue with the Democrats now. Even though he's about to at least be acquitted in the senate, he will forever be impeached as Nancy Pelosi like to say.

So which message from the President? If you watch the Super Bowl today it's more upbeat.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Under President Trump, America is stronger, safer and more prosperous than ever before.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Best wage growth I think we have seen in almost a decade.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Unemployment rate sinking to a 49-year-low.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And ladies and gentlemen, the best is yet to come.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Clearly where his campaign would like to keep him. The question is will he stay there?

SALAMA: For something like the State of the Union it's probably a safe bet that he'll try to stay mostly on message as he has in years past. There might be some interesting dynamics in the room that we're going to be watching closely for and certainly it wouldn't be surprising if he makes a passing reference to the fact that he's going to either be acquitted or nearly acquitted at that point. And so -- but for the most part his team and everyone at the White House and his campaign team especially are looking ahead and they're really anxious to sit there and promote his agenda and to have him go out there and say, listen, the economy is stronger than ever. And I'm bringing jobs back to the country and especially he's going to tout the recent trade deals that he just managed to get done.

[08:35:03]

SALAMA: And so I think you're going to hear a lot more of that and a lot less of the combative rhetoric that we have heard on Twitter. Last night for example, he retweeted a number of statements of support of dozens and dozens of them. He kept on retweeting them through the night. And so obviously this is on his mind but we might not see that at the State of the Union.

KING: There will be time maybe Rachael-- for another one of those McConnell/Trump calls to see if he can keep him calmer, shall we say.

We appreciate your insights this morning.

Up next for us, back to Iowa and Iowa's choice. The stakes here -- high for everyone. But higher for some.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:39:48]

KING: The final weekend here in Iowa critical for candidates who could quickly fade if they don't surprise here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SENATOR AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-MN), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I am the candidate on the march, on the surge. I think you know that.

I have as they say been punching beyond my weight. I have been consistent from the beginning on saying that the major, major focus of this country right now should be that decency check, should be that patriotism check, should be crossing the river of our divides to a higher plain in our politics that is bringing people in and not shutting them out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: But the stakes are high for the bigger names too even as they insist they're built to survive an early setback.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's been bunched up. It's going to remain bunched up, I think. And -- but I've said from the beginning I expect to do well. I probably shouldn't tell you that but I expect to do well.

We have a great firewall in South Carolina. I think we're in a position where I think we'll do very well in Nevada. I think it's going to be a real uphill race as it always is for a non-New Englander in New Hampshire. And I think it's going to be just a tossup here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Joe Biden will be on the panel next Sunday.

MARTIN: Expectations --

KING: Expectations matter even more so if you're a sitting former -- former sitting vice president. Served eight years with Barack Obama.

MARTIN: He's trying to downplay his prospects in the first two states. Here's the reality check.

It's very hard to be a former two term vice president with basically a household name in American life and start over too. And if that is the case, you're 0-2, and by the way, you also have $9 million or less in the bank which we found out he does. It's hard to sustain a campaign financially going forward after that. And he talks about South Carolina a lot which obviously is a state where he has real support.

The question is can you get there in any kind of decent shape if you're coming in there limping? If you're starting 0-3, if he loses Nevada too.

KING: Right.

MARTIN: That could be a real challenge for him just financially alone -- John, paying the bills to get there. And then three days after South Carolina which is on a Saturday is Super Tuesday.

So how is he going to be able to afford a presence on the air in California and Texas if he's not raising the money you need after big showings in Iowa and New Hampshire which you need to get money.

KING: Right. And to that point, to jump in --

(CROSSTALKING)

KING: -- I want to show our viewers -- I'm going to show you a national poll number. And I'm going to tell you just look at it as a point of reference because Iowa is going to change this tomorrow night. I don't show this to do anything beyond -- it's a point of reference.

Joe Biden at the top in national polls still when you put all the average of the polls together with Senator Sanders. That's where we start going into Iowa. The question is where will we be out of Iowa?

MARTIN: Yes.

KING: And to that point you made, there's another guy, Michael Bloomberg who's sitting around -- look at this campaign ad spending so far. $286 million Michael Bloomberg has spent; $169 million, Tom Steyer. Some people would say Bloomberg is wasting his money. But if Joe Biden goes 0-3 or 1-4, Bloomberg is going to raise his hand and say Biden's weak. Buttigieg and Klobuchar have not proven that they can take on the progressive candidates, you need me.

I'm sorry I interrupted you.

LEE: No, no, no. The expectation settings are so important right now because of the perception that people start building depending on how well or badly you do in Iowa.

But I just wanted to make a quick point too about sort of the disconnect that we are seeing between what's happening here with all of the candidates that are talking about Iowa and what's to come tomorrow versus what we saw happen in D.C.

I mean, we just spent half the show talking about impeachment as we should because this is a very important moment in history. But I think it has been really striking how voters have sort of seemed tuned out from the impeachment proceedings that are happening in D.C. And I think a big part of it, the reason that they're not talking about it to reporters, they're not really asking candidates about the issue is because the suspense sort of hasn't been there, right.

I think as much as this has been sort of a forgone conclusion to lawmakers in Washington that Trump is not going to be removed from office, voters in Iowa know that, too. And I think if anything, the impeachment proceedings have only grown the concern among voters that Trump is that resilient.

ZELENY: And Jonathan said 0 for 2. Of course it matters where Joe Biden falls in that. If it's Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, you know, that's -- you can easily say it's a progressive electorate here.

(CROSSTALKING)

ZELENY: But one thing to watch on caucus night, I have met and talked to so many voters in the last couple of days who say they're going to go in on the first round and pick someone like Michael Bennet even a John Delaney, even a Cory Booker. Even though they're out of the race, that's fine -- and watch what happens in the room.

Of course that's the stop Bernie strategy so Joe Biden's best play here -- he knows it, his advisers know it -- is for him to get the second choice vote. But that's not a strong position to be going into the room with.

KUCINICH: Yes. But I think if Bernie manages to win Iowa and New Hampshire, I think to your point, you're going to see a more of a Bloomberg presence than you already do because that opens the door wide for him to make the case.

LEE: The best thing that could happen for Bloomberg right now is for Bernie to have an extremely good showing, both in Iowa and in New Hampshire.

MARTIN: And for Biden to be in fourth. KING: Right.

LEE: Yes.

[08:44:57]

KING: When you talk to people here, everybody thinks it's really close. Organization matters. Another day at the campaign -- we'll watch the candidates today.

Up next, Iowa voters take their caucuses very seriously -- an d the final choices sometimes make the family dinner a debate.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KURT WEAKLAND, WARREN SUPPORTER: My wife and I really want to see a woman president. So we think this is a good opportunity. So we try and convert him occasionally.

BEN WEAKLAND, SANDERS SUPPORTER: I don't know if either of them are very persuasive. If anything, I'm doing the persuading.

A lot of people say that Bernie's old age kind of hurts him, but I'd say that it actually helps him. Like because he's so old you can go back and see that he's been fighting for the same things over the last 30, 40 plus years. And I think that kind of consistency really is pulled me over to him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

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[08:49:58]

KING: So let's use our 2016 Iowa Democratic caucuses results map. Remember how close it was here four years ago -- Clinton and Sanders.

A little bit of a preview what to expect 2020. Candidates here make a point of trying to visit all 99 of Iowa's counties. That's a point of bragging rights.

As we tally the results tomorrow some of those counties could give us some early clues. Is Amy Klobuchar, for example, going to deliver an Iowa surprise?

Well remember, she's a senator from Minnesota. These counties up along the Iowa-Minnesota border perhaps give us some early hints of that.

Another big question -- will progressives break one way or split fairly evenly between Senators Warren and Sanders? Look out here in eastern Iowa, see all this light blue? That's Bernie Sanders four years ago. He ran very strong here.

This will be a good place to look -- Lynn County where Cedar Rapids is. Down here, Scott County where Davenport is -- to see how the progressive split is going. We're broadcasting today from Des Moines. That's in Polk County. It's

the state's largest urban area but this county suburbs are also critical to tomorrow night's math.

We sat down in Des Moines with several voters, (INAUDIBLE) to check in. They are excited. And they're anxious because they see these things this time as very close.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JANELLE TURNER, JOE BIDEN SUPPORTER: I'm Janelle Turner. And I'm supporting Joe Biden.

K. WEAKLAND: I'm Kurt Weakland and I'll be caucusing for Warren.

TERRI HALE, PETE BUTTIGIEG SUPPORTER: I'm Terri Hale and I'm caucusing for Pete Buttigieg.

BRANDY MILLER, BERNIE SANDERS SUPPORTER: And I'm Brandy Miller and I'm caucusing for Bernie Sanders. And I think his platform is a lot broader and covers a lot of categories that mean more to all of America. So not just even my special needs, but there's various needs. I think he covers, I mean, climate control -- I mean he covers it all.

KING: You were for Bernie four years ago, right?

K. WEAKLAND: I was, yes.

KING: So why not this time?

K. WEAKLAND: I feel like he is a little bit too old maybe. And I like some of the other candidates. I liked Warren four years ago and I kind of hoped she would come out then, but that didn't happen so.

KING: We met when you were initially with another candidate who is no longer in the race, and how did you get to Biden from Harris?

TURNER: We were devastated when she dropped out so early, it was rather unexpected. And so I kind of took my time and thought about it, looked at all of the candidates and I ultimately came to Joe.

I think that he's got the experience and normalcy that we so desperately need right now.

KING: And Mayor Pete -- why?

HALE: I had made up of my mind I was probably going to support a woman because it was time -- I knew we had really phenomenal women who were going to be entering the race, but then I saw Pete. It was about a year ago and he kind of ruined all that for me.

There is his optimism and that calm temperament. I left the room that night realizing that is what I am looking for in a leader. I am so tired of angry, finger pointing, erratic, over emotional behaver, immature behavior. You know, Trump is 73, Pete is 38. Who's the adult in the room? It is Pete. KING: Is it because you think your candidate is best to beat Trump or

you think it's because your candidate is best for you?

MILLER: I felt the bond. I liked him as a person and his views and so --

KING: They're going to say he is a socialist. He's old. You know, he's for giving free everything.

MILLER: I know he is older, but I like him. I like his energy. And I think he cares about people. And I think we need somebody who cares about people.

KING: It's getting a little chippy of late. You have Senator Sanders and Senator Warren saying, you know, Joe Biden back in the day wanted to mess with social security. You have Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg saying, you know, Bernie Sanders isn't electable. Elizabeth Warren is not electable.

Is there anyone here who would not support another Democrat or would at least not enthusiastically support if your guy or gal didn't win?

TURNER: Yes. I would have a hard time supporting Senator Sanders.

KING: You would not vote for Trump or stay home?

TURNER: No, I would vote for him, but it would be with less enthusiasm because it is important. I think we all agree to beat Trump.

HALE: We have to unite and support the eventual nominee. I certainly believe it will be Pete Buttigieg, but I'm going to support whoever is nominated.

MILLER: Ditto.

KING: So it's here. Does that make it exciting or does it make it anxious or do you need another week or two?

TURNER: No. We don't want another week or two.

K. WEAKLAND: No. I am done having people knock at my door.

TURNER: I am so excited to see where things land and how it turns out. And to see the turnout, and to hope that it is what we are projecting to say, hey, Trump, take note. Democrats have your number.

MILLER: I am ready for it to be over. I personally don't like all the calls and the texts that I am receiving from the various candidates.

KING: Love.

MILLER: No. I don't want that kind of love.

[08:54:52]

HALE: It really is a fun privilege in Iowa where I like say we are tripping over presidential candidates despite the texts, the phone calls, the commercials and commercials and the mailers.

K. WEAKLAND: My kids are quoting candidates' commercials -- they are 13 and 15 -- back to me.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: Wonderful people. We thank them for their time. Wish them luck on caucus night.

That is it, INSIDE POLITICS. Hope you can catch us week days as well. Tune in tomorrow night too, CNN's special coverage of the election results. We'll see you at noon Eastern during the week.

Up next "STATE OF THE UNION" with Jake Tapper. Don't go anywhere. Jake's guests include Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg and Iowa Senator Joni Ernst.

Thanks again for sharing your Sunday. Have a great day.

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