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New Data: Joe Biden Won 2020 Election By Cutting Into Donald Trump's Margins With White Voters; Shock In Haiti: Pres. Jovenel Moise Assassinated Overnight; CDC: Delta Variant Now Dominant Coronavirus Strain In U.S. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired July 07, 2021 - 12:30   ET



JOHN KING, CNN HOST: That's red. Donald Trump carries Arizona then. One of the examples, you could do this in Georgia as well. Donald Trump runs strong among white Suburbans. He carries a state like Arizona. Joe Biden run stronger four years later, he takes Arizona and changes the map. That's why this data is so illuminating. When you look at the Biden coalition, I could give you more examples of that.

But another big lesson is the shifting mood of Hispanic voters. Come over here and look at this. Look at this giant gap, 66 percent for Hillary Clinton among Hispanic voters, 28 percent for Donald Trump. Now Joe Biden still won but 59 to 38. Donald Trump improved his standing look at it there, 10 points among Hispanic voters. How does that translate on the map?

Remember in the 2020 campaign, Democrats had dreams. We're going to take Texas back. Well, you see a lot of blue down here, right, in this part of Texas. But take a look. This is 2020, right? Biden lost Texas, Donald Trump won it comfortably. Go back in time, you see a little bit more blue right here, right, when Hillary Clinton carries Texas, I mean, when Donald Trump carries Texas over Hillary Clinton, she did better down here. This is a tiny County, Maverick County.

But look at this 76 percent for Hillary Clinton in this tiny count. Now she's losing Texas back in 2016 and losing a big but in this area, Latino voters. Fast Forward 20 years, Joe Biden by only 10 points because Donald Trump is performing better among Latino voters took away any Democratic hopes at all of getting Texas.

One more example of that, come over to Florida right here, again, Donald Trump was always going to win Florida. The Biden campaign said maybe we'll try but we knew this. But let's just look at Miami-Dade. In 2020, look at Miami-Dade. Yes, Joe Biden wins seven points, right, but roughly seven points you think that's a pretty big win.

Go back in time. Hillary Clinton lost Florida in 2016. But look at this. That's nearly 30 points. What happened? Donald Trump ran stronger among Latino voters here in the Miami area, expanding his lead in Florida. And guess what, Republicans also picked up two congressional seats right in that area because of that.

Let's get some context on these new numbers and insight from two veteran campaign pros, Republican pollster and strategist, Kristen Soltis Anderson, and The X Files host, David Axelrod, of course, the former top strategist for President Barack Obama.

David, let me start with you with your experience winning two presidential campaigns, we often think on Election Day or this was election week, you know what happened when you get the results. But then you get great studies like this, and you have to rethink some things. What are you rethinking most after looking at this data?

DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, look, I think there are a few questions that are raised, but what one is very clear, and you ended with it, which is, you know, do not think of the let Latinx vote as a monolith. We -- there's not a Hispanic community. There are Hispanic communities that are very different around the country. And you need to be mindful about how you deal with them.

Down in Miami-Dade, that word socialism really hurt Biden with those voters, those voters many of whom came from Latin America. And we're very sensitive to that that word. In Texas, the whole issue of energy was very resonant down there, because so many people work in oil related jobs.

And so, and I do think that established Hispanic voters in this country who are non-college voters behave much like non college white voters. The final thing I would say is on a different subject, Democrats have to think about how they appeal more broadly, because had Joe Biden not added those five points among non-college whites. He probably would not have won that election. So you can't write off large swaths of the country and believe that you're going to win a national election given our electoral system. So those are two things that I take away.

KING: And so Kristen, if you're trying to take what we're learning about 2020, and think, how do I apply this to 2022, 2024, and beyond, one of the most interesting questions I know to you, and it certainly is to me, is the generational divide what we're seeing change in the American electorate. If you look right here, this was the first time. This was the first time in our presidential history where voters under the age of 55, Gen X, millennials, and Gen Z's made up a majority of the electorate.

Normally, we would look at the baby boomers and the silent generation voters, 56 and older normally a majority in presidential politics, but no more, no more younger voters. And Kristen, I think you agree with me, younger voters who tend at least at this moment to favor Biden and favor the Democrats. So this is a warning sign to Republicans, is it not?

KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST & POLLSTER: Well, if Republicans had been doing poorly with voters under the age 30, going back all the way to sort of the mid-2000s. The last time you had a Republican at the national level sort of hold serve with young voters was George W. Bush running against John Kerry in 2004. He lost voters under 30, but only by single digits. Republicans now we're in the business of losing those under 30 voters by huge margins.

But the more troubling thing for the GOP is those voters in that next block up, you know, millennials, we're not young anymore, necessarily. We're in our 30s, our 40s. And we're still seeing the millennial generation according to this Pew study, breaking for Democrats by that 20 point margin. That's a little different than the idea of, well, you're young. You'll get conservative as you get older. Millennials are pretty old and they're still breaking pretty heavily for Democrats.


KING: Another thing I found fascinating especially when you try to take what we learned about what happened in November and apply it to what we know is happening now is the Pew study of how people voted. Let's look at how people voted in 2020. Look, Republicans win on Election Day, Donald Trump, nearly two to one over Joe Biden. Voters showed up and voted on Election Day, right? We saw this play out when we counted the votes on Election Day.

In person early, Trump advantage, people who showed up it's a vote in person early, a slight advantage. But look at this, look at this. This is why Republicans across the country you're trying to change make it harder to vote early, make it harder to have dropboxes. Look at that by mail or absentee ballot, nearly a two to one Biden advantage. That when you come out to the map number one, it makes you understand, it cynical, but why Republicans are doing many of the things they're doing at the state level.

But number two, David Axelrod even though Donald Trump won big, this is why in Texas, for example, they want to do away with dropboxes, and a lot of early voting, because Democrats surprised them in places like Harris County, even in defeat. And we saw this in other states as well, that early voting disproportionately advantage the Democrats and the Pew numbers just make it jump out at you.

AXELROD: Absolutely, I mean, it is skewed a little because Trump campaigned against it before the election. And so he made it sort of socially unacceptable for Republicans to vote early. He made an article of faith that you should not. That was a problem for Republicans by the way. One interesting note on all of this, John, is that among those early in person voters and in person voters, generally, African Americans actually chose to use that tool more than the absentee ballots.

They wanted to go to the polls, and vote. So anything that makes that more difficult and disruptive, also probably advantages Republicans in the minds of people who are writing these new rules.

KING: And Kristen, let me get you in as we close on the issue of independents, you always look to the middle of the electorate, if you will, which can shift from election to election. But if you look at the numbers, if you could bring them up on independents here, Donald Trump 43 percent, 43 percent. He held steady. Now we didn't have the third party candidate impact we had but Joe Biden performing 10 points better than Hillary Clinton among independents. What's the lesson there?

ANDERSON: The lesson is that you need to have more than just your base as a part of your coalition. Now Donald Trump had been pretty good in 2016 about bringing new voters out. And in this Pew study, you can see that folks that they were new to the voting process in 2016 actually tended to be pretty split between Republicans and Democrats.

This idea that expanding the electorate, new voters always advantages Democrats isn't necessarily the case. But for Republicans in 2022, can you keep those Trump voters coming out when Trump's not on the ballot? That's the big unknown.

KING: Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Axelrod, grateful helped me -- helping me understand put these numbers in the context. We'll continue the conversation.

Up next for us, back to the coronavirus. The Delta variant takes deeper root especially in places way behind the COVID vaccine race.



KING: Shock and turmoil in Haiti this hour. Its president, Jovenel Moise is dead, assassinated the government says by mercenaries who raided his home overnight. President Biden earlier this morning called the assassination quote, very worrisome. Joining us now is CNN's Melissa Bell with the latest. Melissa, what do we know and what next?

MELISSA BELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I've been hearing more, John, from the acting Prime Minister Claude Joseph who says that the men who entered the house of the president overnight killing him, had want it about 1:00 a.m. local time and wounding his wife, who are highly trained and heavily armed.

He also vowed that he would bring any further details that they learned over the coming hours as quickly as he could, in order that those responsible, he said, be brought to justice as quickly as possible for this heinous crime. This of course, comes after many months of a worsening political crisis for the country and economic situation that had been only worsened by the COVID pandemic, John, and months of social unrest.

People taking to the streets to protest what they believe Jovenel Moise's attempt to further his grasp on power. In the end, it is political instability over the last few decades that has brought us here. And it is undoubtedly further political instability that will emerge. What the acting Prime Minister has instituted now is what is described under Haitian noises stage is siege. See, it is just above, John, a state of emergency, closure of the borders, martial law imposed in order he says to avoid that Haiti should be plunged into any further chaos, John.

KING: Melissa Bell, grateful for the latest. We'll stay on top of this more sadness from occurring sadness and political turmoil in Haiti. Melissa, thank you very much. The COVID crisis now, we want to talk in just a moment to somebody on the front lines of dealing with the deadly Delta variant. Let me walk through the numbers first before we bring in that frontline warrior. Here's the case count right now. And you see the case count, especially if you think about the winter peak way, way down here, right?

But however, we're still averaging 13,600 new infections a day. That's up from 11,000 just a couple of weeks ago. So the case count is inching up. It is inching up in part because of the disparity in vaccination, 62 percent in Maine, 66 percent in Vermont, fully vaccinated, look down here in Alabama 33 percent, Mississippi 30 percent. That is one of the problems in the country right now, the disparity.

If you look at the Delta variant, the nasty Delta variant, it now makes up more than half of the cases here in the United States. And you see the progression from May, June, and up we go there. And if you look at the Delta map, it is taking route in some of these regions where we know the vaccination rate is lower.

And on that point let's bring it to discuss is the Alabama State Health Officer, Dr. Scott Harris. Dr. Harris, if you talk to the public health experts, they make this connection right here. They look at the vaccine map. They'd say Alabama is at 33 percent. Therefore, you're going to have more of a Delta problem because you have a larger unvaccinated population. What can you do to fix that?


DR. SCOTT HARRIS, ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH: Yes, that's a very reasonable assumption. And we certainly are very concerned about that. We've tried as many ways as we can imagine to try to address hesitancy, you know, hesitancy for vaccine comes in a lot of different flavors. Some people just have access to curious you, some people in the African American community talk about the historical trauma they've experienced in the relationship they've had with the state.

And then clearly, there are parts of the state that have almost a partisan or political aspect to their view about whether they want to be vaccinated. And it's really hard to come up with a single solution to fit everyone.

KING: And so as you try to deal with this, and we've spoken throughout this, I want to bring up this Kaiser Foundation poll, because it gets to what you're talking about right here. Who do you trust the most, right? Well, both Democrats or Republicans say their personal doctor, then you start the CDC. And you see Republicans, especially a less faith in government institutions, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, he's a Democrat now, so Republicans are less likely to believe him.

Dr. Fauci gets polarized in conservative media, Republicans less likely to believe him. Even state government, about seven in 10 Democrats say they believe their state government, only 45 percent of Republicans say they believe their state governor. How do you do this, I don't mean to use it, whack-a-mole in this context. But you're right. It's complicated. You have an African American has an in community. You have Republicans who are hesitant. What is your day like trying to reach each of these different groups?

HARRIS: You know, what we have tried to do is just work with local people in each community. There are trusted voices in each community. We all have people that we know personally that we respect whose opinions that we want to hear and consider. So we have worked with local providers, as you mentioned, people do tend to trust their doctors.

But in some cases, they also trust others that they know well. They may be faith leaders in their community. They may be people who work in certain social organizations or even local public officials in some cases. But we really do have to take it almost one situation at a time. You know, every town is a little bit different from the next town.

KING: We're having this conversation in early July. When you look at your calendar, you think about kids going back to school in the weeks ahead. The weather gets cooler in the weeks ahead. I want to bring up the Alabama case count right here. As you can see, a month ago, you were at 417, your seven day average of new infections.

You're down now here, you're down, but you're up from where you were in the middle of June, 121 June 2nd, July 1st, 227. So, a little bit of a creep up there. And I'll bring up the hospitalizations as well. A plateau maybe a little bit up there, that's July. When you do your projections, how important is it that you get a higher percentage vaccinate that you convince people about this nasty Delta variant before these numbers, the weather gets cooler kids get back to school, and that starts going up here?

HARRIS: That's absolutely vital. I mean, it doesn't take much discussion to figure out that if you have a large pool of susceptible people and you have a more transmissible variant around, you're going to have outbreaks. And I think when we have large groups of people getting together for social events, or in a school setting, even in a workplace setting, we're certainly going to be at risk for that.

You know, I think most states are reporting that virtually all of their hospitalized patients are unvaccinated people. We know that virtually all the deaths in our country are among unvaccinated people, even though fortunately, that number of deaths total in total is down quite a bit. But clearly, we've got a lot of work to do to reach these people that just haven't committed yet to being vaccinated.

KING: Dr. Harris, as always, appreciate your time. Best of luck, Sir.

HARRIS: Thank you.

KING: Thank you.


And what better way to say thank you to the people who are on the front lines of this pandemic fight, look right there. That's a parade in New York City.


KING: Celebration in New York City today, you see it right there, a parade for COVID-19 frontline workers. CNN's Shimon Prokupecz is along the parade route and joins us now. Shimon, tell us what you're seeing.

SHIMON PROKUPECZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it's a -- so it's really exciting day here, John. You see there are members of the Coast Guard now walking through this. The parade kicked off just after 11 o'clock. And we're nearing towards the end of the parade. We're actually at the end of where the mayor is greeting many of the frontline workers, the essential workers.

You're talking about grocery store workers, delivery men who were driving through the city on their bikes during the pandemic delivering fruit, grocery store clerks, UPS workers, Amazon workers, and also the FedEx workers, and of course, all of the nurses and the medical teams throughout the entire city and say who worked to try and help people.

Here you have members of the Navy here. So that's what we've been seeing here all day for the last several hours, John, just a lot of people coming out, clapping, greeting many of the people who have walked and marched through the canyon of heroes, which is usually reserved for war heroes and sports heroes. Today, the heroes are the essential workers and many of the frontline workers who really kept this city afloat during the height of the pandemic.

This has now been going on since 11 o'clock so we're nearing the end, the heat of course a big concern for the city, so they've shorted the festivities, which are now about 30 minutes or so away from ending, John.

KING: Shimon Prokupecz, great to see you along the parade route, great to see those essential workers getting a big thank you from the city.


When we come back for President Trump fighting back against his exile from Twitter and from Facebook.


KING: The former President Donald Trump says he will sue Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Google, as well as their respective CEOs. Trump making that announcement just last hour at his golf club in New Jersey. The former president claims the company's violated his first amendment rights. You'll recall both Twitter and Facebook have banned Donald Trump from their platforms. Former President already funding -- fundraising off this by the way, big shock, right, he sent out a text alert asking for donations.


Appreciate your time today in Inside Politics. Hope to see you back here this time tomorrow. Have a great afternoon. But don't go anywhere, Ana Cabrera picks up our coverage right now.