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At Least 30 House Dems To Retire This Cycle, Most Since '92; Report: Rising Seas Are "Clear And Present Risk"; Trump-Backed Perdue Struggles In GA GOP Gov. Primary. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired February 16, 2022 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:30:00]

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Look, it was not just, especially in the wake of a statement from the RNC, you know, labeling this as, you know, legitimate political discourse. You can say, no, no, no, there were actions that were taken in the days ahead of this. And that to overturn the election, and as you said, on that day, it did not happen. And we saw what happened on January 6th.

JOHN KING, CNN HOST: Right. And again, that's the critical point for people who say, why do you keep dwelling on this? Because it could happen again, because if you just put the graphic back up there, and Margaret, you look at this, so you have people inside the Trump campaign, you have Rudy Giuliani, you have the president himself at the time, Donald Trump, and people inside the White House who we're talking to these people, who are trying to make this happen. He's getting all this legal advice. He's pressuring Mike Pence. Listen to me, you can do this. Pence, you know, thankfully said no in the end. But this is not just random anger, or outbursts. This was a very calculated careful plan state by state in battleground states he lost to try to steal the election.

MARGARET TALEV, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. And for the reporters who were covering this, I think the reporters covering this at the time know that and actually were writing about it as a legal strategy, including with memos that was part of a legal strategy. The challenge for this Committee, and I guess, to some extent for journalists, is connecting the dots of the historical record in a way where members of the American public who actually want to know in totality, what happened, can take a step back and put it all together.

So what's the end goal of this, to some extent, it's to build a historical record, right? Into another extent, it is to build a contemporary historical record, because there is going to be a 2024 election and a whole lot of politicking. In the meantime, including secretaries of state races, including changes to the law. Fundamentally, the -- these records from the Committee and our discussion of this, we're talking about false electors. The people who were in these roles and doing this, didn't think they were doing something false. They were operating under instructions or illegal theory that said, you have the ability to do this, therefore, you should try to do it.

KING: Right, that that part is I would dispute the point about that they didn't know. I think they knew the math of the election. They just thought they thought there were --

TALEV: Yes.

KING: They though there was a way around it.

TALEV: Yes. That's exactly right.

KING: They thought, yes, they thought there was a way around democratically held and protested and overruled objections thrown out election.

Next for us, there's a race to the exit. And we'll tell you why. The number of House Democrats not running for reelection hits 30.

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[12:37:00]

KING: Big numbers almost always tell us something. And take a look, 30 is a big number. As in 30 House Democrats now saying they will not seek reelection this year. That's more than double the number of Republicans saying that. And as you can see here, you have to go back 30 years to 1992 to eclipse the current number of House Democratic retirements. Now some of those leaving the house are running for something else. Many say it's just more time for the family or another big challenge.

But the big numbers also proof that many Democrats see this midterm election climate as tough or worse than tough. And believe it is possible, if not likely, they will lose the House in November. Our panel of reporters back with us. And that's the key point here for many of these. It's like, OK, I'd have to raise more money, it's a tough climate for me, maybe I'd win, but maybe I'd even lose for some of them. And then if I come back, I'm going to be the minority. And I don't want to do that.

KANNO-YOUNGS: Right. No, it's -- it is indication of kind of the growing anxiety, at least in the Democratic Party going into the midterms. Now, when you look at Rayza Sich (ph) in New York, I mean, last election, she wanted by about 56 percent. Joe Biden won it, won it pretty comfortably as well. So it will be interesting to see if Republicans actually do are able to kind of sees that and sort of red wave. But at this point, it does seem like, you know, for most Democrats, at least for that district, it is safe. But just moving forward, you can see that when you -- especially looking at that 30 number, you can really point to the anxiety being a part.

KING: And this is not, this is not connect to the big dynamic at play. But since you mentioned Rayza Sich (ph), she's from New York. She publicly said Nancy Pelosi should not be Speaker. Nancy Pelosi never ever forgets. In her statement today, she said Congresswoman Kathleen Rice will be missed by colleagues in our caucus. Didn't say she will be missed by the Speaker just she will be missed by colleagues in her caucus. She never forgets.

Here's why this matters, 222 Democrats in the House right now, 212 Republicans in the House right now. Midterm presidential -- first president midterm year, the party in power almost always loses seats. You want to have in a tough climate. In most races, you'd rather have an incumbent because they can raise more money. They're familiar with the district. But that's not always true. But it's mostly true. That's why this hurts.

EVA MCKEND, CNN NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER: Right. But this is in line with the trend. This is typically what we see happen. A wave of retirements has happened with Republicans in 2018. The -- I would say the issue here is that though while Democrats are still in power, this really blunts their momentum. And I think weakens their leverage because Republicans are looking at them like we don't really need to work with you all in power because you're on your way out the door.

KING: Right. And so you're looking at history. First midterm challenge, Obama lost 63 House seats in his first midterm, Trump lost 40. It's unlikely Biden could lose that many, it would take a huge wave just because the districts are tighter drawn than they used to be in the old days and because you have the already the close, very close partisan balance there. But if we go back to that other graphic, the 1992 graphic, the interesting thing about that was a lot of Democrats retired in 1991 when George H.W. Bush had sky high approval ratings. They thought 1992 was going to be a Bush reelection year.

And a lot of Democrats headed for the exits. And then things changed. So things can change. Bill Clinton won in 1992. It became the year of the women. And a lot of Democrats won in 1992. So Democrats look at the metrics now it's a tough climate I'm out of here but we don't know.

[12:40:09]

TALEV: Absolutely. To your point, what happens next coming out of these midterms matters. I also think like those years in exile are rebuilding years for any party, whether it's the Democratic Party or the Republican Party that falls below the 50 mark, right? And so let's assume for the sake of this discussion, the Democrats lose power, at least in the House of Representatives. There will be rebuilding behind the scenes in all of these districts, some in the very heavy left leaning districts and some of the more centrist districts. And what emerges from that rebuilding is going to be what tells us everything about what the Democratic Party becomes after this midterm election.

KING: And part of the party's calculation when you have 222 to 212. And you have 30 incumbents leaving is what do we do between now and then, right? A, if you're Speaker Pelosi, you're trying to convince other incumbents hang in I assume.

KANNO-YOUNGS: Absolutely. I mean, you want to hold this base together going towards the midterms. Yes, there's still time, you know, you can still turn this thing around. But, you know, as you were saying, especially as you're trying to strive towards any sort of compromise or negotiations, you want to at least put out the perception that the party is holding together at this point.

KING: Thirty is the number now. We'll see primary season as we're getting close to primary seasons coming up in many places, some at late. But we'll see if that number grows in the days ahead.

Up next for us, an extreme mega drought, rising sea levels, two new reports offer a beyond alarming look at the climate crisis.

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[12:46:12]

KING: There are two alarming new reports on the climate crisis. U.S. sea levels could rise up to a foot in the next 30 years that from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That NOAA reports as rising sea levels could lead to more frequent coastal flooding in cities like New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami. The second new study explores another climate extreme, the western United States right now experiencing its worst mega drought in 1,200 years, 1,200 years. With us to share her insights and expertise Julia Cole, she's a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.

Julie, grateful for your time today. Let's just start with the big picture here. You have these two reports in a period of a few days, sort of a double climate whammy. And yet there are many out there who say either this is a hoax, or that the media or people like you climate scientists greatly exaggerated what would you say back?

JULIA COLE, EARTH & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES PROFESSOR, UNIV. OF MICHIGAN: Well, John, thanks for your attention to this issue. And I have to agree with you as your description of this new result is just beyond alarming. I think people who are saying that we are overhyping, or exaggerating climate change really have their head in the sand right now. It's -- this past year has been just unbelievable in terms of the record breaking climate anomalies that have been happening and the damages that have been done.

So it's really, really clear and virtually 100 percent of climate scientists agree that this is a major problem, and that it's really getting worse very rapidly. And I think anyone who lived in the southwestern U.S., the western U.S., or who experienced some of the big storms of the past year is starting to get a feeling for what that looks like.

KING: Right. And the way you just answered there just comes in different ways, whether it's the storms, whether it's the drought, its -- the climate extremes are hitting us in different ways. I just want to read a little bit from the new NOAA report, sea level rise driven by global climate change is a clear and present risk to the United States now and for the foreseeable future. That's the new NOAA report. I want to show some images. This is from a separate study, Climate Central, visualizing what certain locations would look like if the planet warmed by 3 degrees Celsius. See the pier, Santa Monica, California, left is now the right is what could be coming.

Buckingham Palace in London, the left is now the right again if the planet continues to warm. And then Hoboken, New Jersey, you see it right there. So the question, I guess, Julie, is that what needs to be done? You cannot, it's too late to stop some of this, what needs to be done when it comes to the sea levels and the flooding? COLE: Yes, sure. When it comes to sea level, you're right that we cannot stop this at this point. The NOAA report looks 30 years ahead. And it gives us a roadmap for how we can be adaptable in the face of this climate change. It's a stark reminder of this impending disaster in terms of sea level rise, but it gives us information that planners can use to develop smarter in coastal regions. So if there is a silver lining to it, it is that there is now a good source of information about this.

Now, sea level rise doesn't stop in 30 years. So we have to keep that in mind as well. But at that point, we can do some things about the root causes of sea level, which is the human caused global warming from the pollution caused by fossil fuel burning.

KING: And let me pull up a map, another depressing map. This is from the other study about the mega drought. And you just see the brown on this map in the western United States. It stretches up obviously, into Canada as well. And you see, it's not just the West. You see some dark brown areas as well there. This is not something that if we have a rainy season that might help for a year, you know, a rainy season or two but we're just showing you some of the pictures and we have images of Lake Powell and Lake Mead out in the west. It's just depressing to look at the pictures and how the water levels are dropping so much. Again, is there a solution here or what needs to be done?

COLE: Yes, this is a major problem that's been building as the study points out for 22 years. What can we do about it? Well, you know, there's three approaches to this, right? There's mitigation of climate change which is cut fossil fuel pollution and cut emissions by 50 percent by 2030 and to net zero by 2050. The other thing we can do is, of course, now we know that we're in a drought, we can do adaptive measures like recycling and reclaiming water, using it more judiciously treating it like the valuable resource that it is.

[12:50:24]

And then of course, so that's called adaptation, right? The third piece is the piece we want to avoid. And that's suffering, you can mitigate, you can adapt and you can suffer, we want to minimize the suffering and compensate those who are stricken by drought, by fire up, by the heat waves that are accompanying these conditions. But this is a real challenge for us.

KING: This new administration said it was going to make a big difference. And after four years of climate denial, you do have a president and a team that say this issue is front and center. There were big international conversations at the beginning of the Biden administration. Is it just better words? Or do you see proof that the actual arc, the policy arc is changing and bending in the right direction?

COLE: I think Biden's got the right ideas. He's committed to cutting emissions in half by 2030. That's in line with all the best climate science out there. What we really need now is for Congress to get their act together and act on this and not make it a partisan issue. You know, Senators and Representatives who don't favor climate action are really out of step with the American people. The majority of Americans want to see policies that cut climate change causing pollution. And to the extent that they're not acting on this, they're not really listening to their constituents.

KING: Julie Cole, grateful for your time today. I hope we can continue the conversation.

COLE: Thank you.

KING: Thank you.

Up next, Donald Trump wants revenge against the Republican establishment in Georgia but his handpicked candidate for governor off to a sluggish start.

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[12:56:25]

KING: Georgia is one of Donald Trump's obsessions this year as he seeks revenge against Republicans who would not help him cheat. The former president recruited the former Senator David Perdue to mount a primary challenge to Governor Brian Kemp and thought, Trump thought his endorsement would spell immediate trouble for the incumbent. But Perdue is struggling. At least he is out of the gate. Here's one way to judge things. Take a look. Kemp has raised twice as much money in the first quarter than his Republican opponent.

Plus, most of the State National Party establishment is on Team Kemp. Public polls aren't so promising for Perdue either. CNN's Michael Warren joins us here. He has been following this race. Is this that Perdue is stumbling out of the gate or is it that Kemp is just humming out of the gate?

MICHAEL WARREN, CNN REPORTER: Well, we've covered enough campaigns to know that. A lot of these fundraisers say the early money is really the easiest money for candidates to get. So look at those numbers. You have 1.2 million raised by David Perdue and that's just in the first two months of his campaign. He got in December 6th through January 31st. In that same period is when Brian Kemp raised double that amount. And it's not just the fundraising. Look at the cash on hand. David Perdue has a little under $900,000 cash on hand. Brian Kemp has 12.7 million.

Now, Kemp's been in it for longer. He's been in it for several months. He's the incumbent governor. But you look at the story behind those numbers. And what you see is really an establishment that's donors and activists in a Georgia -- the Georgia Republican Party. A lot of times that's the same thing. They're siding with Kemp, legislators in this General Assembly, siding with Kemp. That seems to be where the smart money is at this point.

The only thing that Perdue has at the moment going for him is this endorsement from Donald Trump, which happened the day that he got into the race. Since then it's kind of been a big flop. KING: Right. And so that tells you something that you have an establishment in a state saying we're with the incoming governor, which means we're against Trump. So they're not afraid to pick that fight right there. What does that tell us for about Trump's track record, you look at Perdue, Perdue just lost, he just lost, so not, you wouldn't normally think that's the guy you want to recruit to run just again but.

WARREN: Well, we know that Donald Trump sort of makes these things personal. He makes these endorsements. And it's kind of a mixed bag, right? And some of these races, House races, for instance, special elections. Sometimes he endorses the winner. Sometimes he endorses the primary loser. He seems to be in a bit of a rut across the country next door in Alabama. He's frustrated with the way Mo Brooks his picking that open Senate race is doing in that race.

In Pennsylvania, his pick for that open Senate race, Sean Parnell has dropped out. So I think a lot of Republicans in Georgia and across the country are kind of looking at that track record. And they're also paying attention to what voters care about. Donald Trump's focus on the 2020 election, it's just not where Republicans are at the moment they're looking at, at the Biden administration. They're looking at the economy, all these sorts of other things. That's where the party seems to be moving. And Donald Trump just seems a bit of a step behind.

KING: Any indication, would trump look at this and say, I need to go in there to help him or the other choices, OK. He's not going to win. I'm going to turn my back and get some distance.

WARREN: Well, he seems to be telling people that oh, look, Perdue is not doing great, but I haven't done a rally there yet. That's something that he is going to be involved in. The question is, how enthusiastic will trump be particularly if these numbers keep going poorly for Perdue? If Perdue looks like a sure loser, you have to wonder if Trump will stay away.

KING: Right primary is in May. Georgia is fascinating in so many, many ways this year. Michael, appreciate the reporting.

This quick programming note from us, this President's Day weekend CNN premiering a brand new original series focused on the life in the presidency of Lyndon Baines Johnson. He passed major legislation like the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act. But his decision to escalate the war in Vietnam, of course, overshadowed much of his legacy. See how was presidency was as complicated as the times he served when LBJ Triumph and Tragedy premiers Sunday night 9:00 p.m. Eastern only right here on CNN.

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Thanks for your time today on INSIDE POLITICS.