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U.S. Warns Ukraine Full-Scale Russian Invasion Is Imminent; Senior U.S. Defense Official: Russians Have Completed All Preparations For Invasion; U.S. Official: Russia Is "As Ready As They Can Be" For An Invasion. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired February 23, 2022 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

JOHN KING, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Hello everybody, and welcome to Inside Politics. I'm John King in Washington. We begin the hour with sober, big breaking news. A dramatic new American intelligence warning. Ukrainian, U.S. and western officials now telling CNN, The United States has delivered a new warning. Tuesday morning local time it was delivered in Kyiv that a full-scale Russian invasion is in.

A senior Ukrainian official says, the country has not yet verified that intelligence and that the United States has communicated similar warnings over the past month. But today, a plan to declare a state of emergency across Ukraine and a vow of an instant response to Russian aggression. A new cyberattack takes Ukrainian government websites offline.

And this and it's important, the Latvian prime minister telling CNN, Russian troops have clearly crossed the line and are now moving inside eastern Ukraine. We begin our breaking news coverage with CNN's Kylie Atwood, she is at the state department. Kylie, what do we know?

KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're learning that new U.S. intelligence assessment shared with the Ukrainians, is that a Russian invasion into Ukraine a full-scale invasion is imminent. And, John, I just want to provide some context. We have heard this word imminent use by Biden administration officials quite a bit over the last few weeks. But there is a growing sense of urgency today.

And as you take a step back, you can see that that has been reflected in the public comments that we have heard from U.S. and from European officials. President Biden, just yesterday in his speech, he talked about blood and medical equipment by the Russians being moved to the frontlines. He said, you don't do that, unless you're going to start a war. We heard also from the NATO secretary general, that all indications are that Russia is continuing to prepare for a full-scale invasion. He talked about the Russian troops moving into places where they could actually fire into Ukraine.

So, there is some public reflection of what we are now learning is this intelligence that the U.S. has, that a full-scale invasion into Ukraine by Russia could be imminent, that they have shared with the Ukrainians were told that that was shared yesterday, local time with the Ukrainians.

And we should note that there's one city Kharkiv, that is in northeastern Ukraine, and that is one city that the United States believes could be particularly subject to this full-scale invasion. It is right up against the border of Russia.

And just yesterday, the Ukrainian foreign minister was here at the state department. He was asked if Ukraine has plans to evacuate that city specifically. And he said, there are no plans to do so. He said plan A is diplomacy to try and fend off an invasion. He said, plan B is to fight, and that the Ukrainians would fight for every inch and fight for every city. But this is of course, a fast-moving situation.

The Ukrainians have always said that they are going to pick up their weapons and fight. But we may see some changes just because this information has been shared with them. And because the real indication here is that the United States believes that a full-scale invasion, not just the beginning of an invasion is imminent. John?

KING: Kylie, well taking us off from the state department. Kylie, come back when we get fresh reporting. Let's go straight now live with CNN's Matthew Chance, is part of this reporting team. Matthew, what do we know about this new warning? And do the Ukrainians believe this time, it's real?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's a good question. And there's obviously a skepticism, I'm getting from Ukrainian officials. But they did say that they haven't verified this intelligence that's been passed to them by the United States about a full-scale invasion and imminent full-scale invasion. And of course, they made the point that, look, the United States has communicated things like this to Ukraine in the past about imminent attacks that have failed to materialize.

And so, you have to remember, I think, of course, that the Ukrainian government have also been sort of playing down any of these, or many of these U.S. intelligence reports that they confront this very acute and severe and imminent threat from Russia.

We've also heard from NATO officials, that they've also seen that same intelligence. But they've also cautioned that, you know, even though they've looked at it, and they see that intelligence in the United States, they can't read what's actually going to go in or what's going on in the mind of Vladimir Putin.

Because remember, as with all of these predictions, or these reports, or warnings, it all comes down to, you know, the decision of one-man, Vladimir Putin, sitting in the Kremlin, even at the last minute of the 11th hour can decide whether or not to pull the trigger. And so, we'll see whether this full-scale invasion that's been warned about, again from the United States, actually comes to fruition.

[12:05:00]

What I will say is that the Ukrainians seem to be taking something very seriously right now because the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, has requested the Ukrainian parliament to impose a state of emergency on the country by midnight or midnight tonight. So that's in three or four hours or so from now.

Whether that's anything to do with this new warning, they've got from United States or not is unclear. But your tensions with those tens of thousands of Russian troops still very much poised on the border of Ukraine are running extremely high right now in Ukraine.

KING: Matthew Chance, its grateful for the live report from Kyiv, and let's go straight to Moscow now and try to understand Vladimir Putin's intention. And Nic Robertson is there for us. Nic, I've been following your reporting over the last hour and the tone from Russian officials seems to have turned and turned in a more aggressive fashion.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes. All the time, we've been trying to figure out if how and when will Russian forces move into those separatist areas that they've decided to back. They've got the legal authority. Putin's got that. We heard from the Russian ambassador at the U.N., and he gave some clarity.

Now originally, Putin had signed off for a peacekeeping mission, unclear what that meant. But the ambassador says that the Russian forces are going into monitor a ceasefire. And he said, they won't be going in softly, softly, which in the context of Russian forces going in, seems to imply that they will be going into contribute to whatever fight they see is going on, that there'll be going in there to shoot back.

Normally, the context that we understand ceasefire monitors to go in, is they sit there, close to frontline. They count who shelling, where the shells are coming from. Who's being hit the number of violations? And then, they report back to both sides to try to deescalate the situation.

The Russia ambassador seems to imply that if there are ceasefire violations, and we know that the Russian separatists have been claiming, without solid evidence that the Ukrainians have been firing on them over the past couple of days. What the Russian ambassador is implying, if that is repeated that the Russians will be firing back. I think that's how we have to take away his version of not going in softly, softly.

So, this does seem to be a troubling development. It does seem to give an indication that the Russian forces are absolutely going into that separatist area. What happens beyond that, at this stage, it's hard to know, but with the Russian forces poised the way they are, the outlook for Moscow does seem grim. And we've heard nothing from President Putin that would seem to indicate he is ready to hold back. His only was the day on the subject where Russian - Russia's security is non- negotiable. John?

KING: Nic Robertson, reporting live reporting from Moscow. Thank you, Nic. Let's get some important perspective and expertise now. Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, former Deputy Director of National Intelligence, Beth Sanner. General Kimmitt, let me start with you. If you hear this context of this new American intelligence warning to the Ukrainians that they believe a full-scale assault, not a limited assault in the separatists' areas is imminent, with an emphasis on Kharkiv.

If I can ask our team to put the map up here. If you look to the right on the map, you see the shaded separatist areas, that's where separatists' troops pro-Russian separatists' groups have control, but Kharkiv is to the west of that along the Russian border. From a strategic perspective, General Kimmitt, the U.S. intelligence warning we are told and also, we've seen some commercial satellite images released in recent hours, that show a considerable buildup of Russian troops up in that area. Why Kharkiv? What's the significance strategic importance?

BRIG. GEN. MARK KIMMITT, U.S. ARMY (RET.): Well, obviously, the most important thing is that it's not part of the separatists there is what President Putin is saying, is that he's willing to go beyond the actions that his duma has authorized, which is to take over and essentially take over control of the separatist area. But this is going a little bit further. I found his words interesting that the security of Russia is non-negotiable, which means he's not worried about Ukraine, Ukraine is not going to invade Russia.

But this goes back to his fundamental ends that he is seeking, which is that Ukraine not become a part of NATO, that NATO pulls back from the borders. And that he is focused more on trying to send a message, saying that what he has been negotiating on from the beginning, now is at the point where, if he doesn't get what he wants, he very well may invade a non-separatists' areas of Ukraine.

KING: And so, Beth, coming in on that point. If you're in the American intelligence community as you were in a very senior position. Number one, you're warning the Ukrainians right now. Number two, you're putting American and NATO troops in the region on alert, as you analyze the images. And the words now coming from Russian government officials about, what they call peacekeeping troops, and they are invasion forces.

[12:10:00]

Let's be crystal clear about that. Those will be Russian forces crossing into Ukraine and they will not go quietly, will not go softly as Nic Robertson reported. What is your assessment of the situation right now?

BETH SANNER, FORMER DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE: Dire, I would say. You know, I don't - I just cannot put together any alternative to an invasion at this point. It may not unfold, you know, with - again, like the rockets going into Kyiv. I think it's going to unfold by these, you know, air "peacekeeping troops" going into the Donbass area controlled by the separatists.

But yesterday, the deputy defense minister claimed that 60,000 Ukrainian troops were masked on that "border." Not true, but as Nic pointed out, they're fabricating all sorts of Ukrainian attacks and posturing and atrocities and genocide. Putin has set up the rationale for Ukraine poses a threat, and they are going to fight back not softly, softly, as Nic pointed out, which you know, if this is going to lead to full scale war.

KING: And if it leads to full scale war, General Kimmitt, the NATO forces, the American forces are outside of Ukraine, the president of United States has made clear he is not sending American boots into Ukraine. There has been a rush of military assistance, anti-tank weapons, other equipment. Obviously, there's a lot of advice back and forth between the two. What is the capability of the Ukrainian military? If Vladimir Putin decides to roll tens of thousands of Russian troops across the borders, what will he see?

KIMMITT: Well, he's going to see a pretty good first line of defense. But he's also going to be blowing their communications off the air. He's going to be jamming their communications. He's going to be using cyberattacks. What he's going to try to do is break up the coherency of the Ukrainian army. And if he does, it will be a bloody battle, but he should be able to achieve his objectives in a very short time.

One point I would make and that she doesn't see any alternative. I think the alternative that Putin is looking for Zelensky's to stand up and say, rather than go into a war, I will not join NATO. That's what he's trying to achieve here.

KING: That's what he's trying to achieve here. He's trying to bully Ukraine to back down. So, Beth Sanner, to that point, the French president as he was leaving a meeting, one of his aides gave a readout to reporters. And he said he noticed a Vladimir Putin no longer the same as the one he had seen back in December of 2019.

Macron had found the Kremlin a man who was at the same time stiffer, more isolated, basically got into some sort of ideological and security minded drift has its age called, do you see as you assess what we know and what you know that you have access to more information than we do? Is this a different Vladimir Putin? Or is this just the same Vladimir Putin, for some reason, emboldened?

SANNER: This is Vladimir Putin exposed. This is who he is. And we're seeing it in a way that is generally hidden, much more controlled. And, you know, the speech on Monday made clear who he is, and the anger that is inside of him. And I, you know, with all due respect, this isn't about NATO membership.

In my perspective, Putin made it very crystal clear that Ukraine does not exist as a state. It is charged of Russia, and he's not going to just stop with any declaration. We'll say that would come or not, it won't come in any case. But that's not enough. You know, he said yesterday to the Azerbaijani president. Look, I respect the sovereignty of all the other soviet states, but not Ukraine, because Ukraine is different as part of Russia.

KING: Ukraine is different to him. At this tense and silver moment appreciate the insights. General Kimmitt, Beth Sanner, will stay in touch as we watch this play out. Next, much more on this breaking news story, new developments on the ground in Ukraine. Plus, insights from the only man who ever served as White House Chief of Staff, CIA director, and Secretary of Defense.

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[12:15:00]

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KING: With sober breaking news this hour, word a new American intelligence warning, delivered directly to the Ukrainian government. It says this, that a Russian invasion is imminent. At the United Nations this morning, the U.S. ambassador demanding the world send Vladimir Putin the message.

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LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS: There's no middle ground here. Calling for both sides to deescalate, only gives Russia a pass. Russia is the aggressor here. This is 2022. We're not going back to an era of empires and colonies or to the USSR or the Soviet Union. We have moved forward.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: CNN's Nick Paton Walsh is live for us in Odessa, Ukraine. That's near the coast of the Black Sea. Nick, this new warning from American officials, new cyberattacks in Ukraine today, an urgent message from the Ukrainian president. What did he say? And where are we?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: Yes. We are not in a good place. It seems in the past hours or so. And certainly, the tone of Ukrainian government has shifted dramatically from 48 hours ago. Regarding President Volodymyr Zelensky, talking about how he didn't see a full-scale Russian invasion occurring too. The presidency now calling up reservists, the state of emergency that's hit this town in southwestern Ukraine on the Black Sea far away from the violence in the east.

We've seen police on the street here in numbers, showing their presence because of the state of emergency. The cyberattacks, you mentioned now as well, and the intelligence warnings too. Pointing to this broader issue, John, about the timetable here for those Russian forces on the border. It's clear that they're in significant numbers.

[12:20:00]

And as a western official said to me a couple of days ago, they can be there for a matter of days. Those that are there in the tactical formation, in that ready position to kind of pounce, as it were, and move across the border. These are men living in their vehicles, essentially, and that cannot be sustained forever.

So, the essential question now is, is the rhetoric we're hearing from Vladimir Putin, the extraordinary dressing down, he gave his own inner security circle, the 57-minute speech, which basically revised the history of Ukraine called NATO and aggress that would use Ukraine as a platform to attack Russia was laid in, frankly, with falsehoods and showed a man very much isolated and obsessed with detail. Is that leading us to some sort of new departure here in this lengthy standoff? John?

KING: Nick Paton Walsh, one of our many great correspondents on the ground force at this tense moment. Nick, thank you very much. Some brand-new reporting is coming into CNN. A senior U.S. defense official says, the Russians have completed all necessary preparations for an invasion of Ukraine. CNN's Barbara Starr, live with us, with the latest on that. Barbara, what can you tell us?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon, John. Indeed, a senior U.S. defense official telling me a short time ago, their assessment now is that the Russians have completed all the necessary preparations. The officials saying, they are as ready as they can be, for that very much not wanted, of course, invasion of Ukraine.

The indicators that U.S. military intelligence and the U.S. intelligence services across Europe had been looking at, is the millions of pounds of ammunition that the Russians have moved into forward positions. And over the last several days indicators that they have been loading up their warships, loading up their aircraft with that ammunition vehicles as well. Being poised, ready to go from those forwards positioned.

The Russians will want darkness to begin this invasion. They will also want good weather. They do not want to move in the rain, because their heavy vehicles can get very readily bogged down in the mud. That's the U.S. assessment. So, they're going to want it as dry as it can be. And they're going to want darkness. And that at this hour is causing tremendous concern, not just at the Pentagon, not just in Washington, but I would venture to say across the world. John?

KING: Barbara Starr, grateful for the important new report, and keep us posted throughout the hours and days ahead. And let's get some unique perspective now from Leon Panetta. He's the former CIA Director, the former Defense Secretary, and the former White House Chief of Staff. Leon, grateful for your time on what appears to be quite a sober and consequential day here. I'm going to walk through your different jobs through the government.

Number one, of the United States government, delivering an assessment we were told yesterday to the Ukrainian government, that the Russian invasion appears to be imminent. You just heard Barbara you were once the secretary of defense in the building that she reports on so well. Talking about what U.S. military officials believe that Russia is now fully ready, fully capable to launch that attack. Now, what is the significance of the United States government, deciding we're going to present this to the Ukrainian government to get them as ready as they can be?

LEON PANETTA, FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA: I think, it's absolutely critical, that the United States provide as much military aid as possible to the Ukrainians. We've been doing that. Hopefully, they've been preparing. But there's no question that when 130,000 Russian troops crossed that line, that Russia has overwhelming power here to achieve its objectives, but it will come at a price.

I mean, I think what we're seeing is that we're crossing the line from a lot of talk and a lot of movement into actual killing, that's going to take place with missiles, with bombs, with tanks, with forces. We are going to see innocent men, women and children killed. We're going to see Russian soldiers killed. We're going to see Ukrainian soldiers killed. That is the price of war.

KING: And so, I want - help me with context here. Any in Russian invasion of Ukraine is unacceptable and reprehensible. It's Vladimir Putin trying to steal another country's land. Additionally, there was a thought that maybe Russian troops would only go into the separatists' areas in eastern Ukraine, and which, you know, they claim it now Russia has recognized their "independence" which is a farce. But now, U.S. officials telling us Ukrainian, other sources as well, that Kharkiv, a city we can show the map, a city that is to the west, the northwest of those along the Russian border, is also a potential target.

A major Russian troop buildup across the border. How is it different if this is not just and I use the word just carefully because it's still reprehensible? But if the Russian military aggression is not just in the separatists' regions, but is in other major Ukrainian population centers, as well. How does that escalate? What the stakes for the world?

[12:25:00]

PANETTA: Because it really does become the full-scale invasion of Ukraine at that point. You know, taking the separatists' areas was something that a lot of people anticipated. But once they cross that line into the Ukraine with tanks and with soldiers and with a full- scale invasion. What happens here is we have moved then to a full- scale effort by Russia to take over Ukraine. That's the difference.

And the reality is, you know, Putin hasn't pulled any punches here these last few days. And what he said, there's no question in my mind that he is intent on now taking over Ukraine. That's his goal and that's what he's after at this point in time.

KING: And so, let's go deeper into that then. You just said, and General Kimmitt earlier in the hour said, obviously, Ukraine will put up a hearty fight, but the Russian forces have an overwhelming edge and superiority, training and equipment. What about - let me move you over to your CIA hat.

What should the worries be about Russian intelligence capabilities inside Ukraine in terms of operatives, attempts to overthrow? Or we've seen the Russian government poison people around the world, including their own dissidents? What would you be worried about from a CIA perspective of Russian operations, Putin operations inside Ukraine?

PANETTA: Well, what you could have here is a real combination between conventional warfare with tanks and military forces. And at the same time, hybrid war combined, which means a great deal of cyber agents being able to go into the Ukraine, to try to undermine stability there and try to undermine the government.

There are a number of different tactics that can be applied here. But it all spells one thing. Russia is aiming to take over Ukraine and make it part of Russia. That's the goal. And I think it's pretty clear that whatever we try to do right now, is not going to deter Putin and Russia.

KING: And so, to that end, last question. I asked you about the defense secretary role and the CIA role. What would White House Chief of Staff, Leon Panetta, be telling President Biden right now? What must he say? What must he do at this moment?

PANETTA: I think it's extremely important because I think this is a pivotal moment in history. In the 21st century, that's going to tell us a lot about the future, the future of democracy and the future of autocracy. And it's extremely important that the president and our allies remain very strong, remain very unified, and take some tough actions, not only to increase the sanctions, and create a real bite in terms of the Russian economy, but also continue to provide military aid and continue to reinforce our positions along NATO. All of those steps are absolutely essential. Putin needs to know, that when we say he's going to pay a price, he will pay a price.

KING: Leon Panetta, grateful for your time on this very important day, sir, appreciate very much.

PANETTA: Thank you.

KING: Up next for us, the political fallout here back home. Vladimir Putin is invading a democracy and he is seizing its land. Donald Trump, still the leader of the Republican Party, calls it genius.

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