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Inside Politics

Harris Targets Trump By Raising Threat Of Project 2025; New CNN Poll: No Clear Leader Between Harris And Trump; Harris On Offense: Goes After Trump On Convictions, Abortion; Harris Memo: Campaign Will Focus On Both Blue Wall And Sun Belt; Now: FBI Director Wray Grilled On Trump Assassination Attempt; Protesters On Capitol Hill Ahead Of Netanyahu's Address. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired July 24, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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DANA BASH, CNN HOST: Today on Inside Politics, the numbers are in. This hour, we are going to reveal the first CNN poll since Joe Biden left the presidential race and Kamala Harris stepped in. You're going to see what voters think about the new Harris-Trump matchup.

Plus, Benjamin Netanyahu is on his way to Capitol Hill to address a divided Congress. Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are boycotting the Israeli prime minister's speech. I'll talk to two people who will be there. American parents whose son has been held captive in Gaza for 291 days.

And tonight, Americans will hear something they haven't heard since 1968. A sitting president explaining why he won't seek reelection. We have the latest on the Oval Office address that Joe Biden never wanted to give.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

Well, this is a wildly different presidential race. Then just a few days ago, we've heard a lot from politicians about Vice President Harris taking over for Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. But the crucial question is, what do voters think? And today we're going to get the first snapshot of how they view Kamala Harris, who used her first rally as the presumptive presidential nominee to go after Donald Trump head on.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE U.S., (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He and his extreme project 2025 agenda will weaken the middle class. Like we know we got to take this seriously. And can you believe they put that thing in writing. When you read it, you will see Donald Trump intends to cut Social Security and Medicare. He intends to give tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations and make working families foot the bill. America has tried these failed economic policies before, but we are not going back.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: And I'm here with CNN's David Chalian to break down what we're learning in this important new poll. Take it away.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, we got our first look at a Harris-Trump race that is no longer hypothetical. And what you see here is there's no clear leader in the top line of the horse race here. A three-point margin, that's within the margin of error, Dana. Donald Trump at 49 percent support, Kamala Harris at 46 percent support. That's about half the margin that we saw in the Biden versus Trump matchup. The last couple of months that we pulled, that was a six-point race. This one now is a three-point race.

And if you look here, broken out by party. You see near total consolidation among Democrats for Harris, similar, more than nine and 10 Republicans for Trump. Take a look here at the independents. Trump has 46 percent. Harris has 43 percent. Biden was losing independents to Trump in the last couple of months, according to our polling by roughly 10 points. Now he's -- now Harris is just losing them by three, though remember, Biden won them by 13 points in 2020, when he won that election.

BASH: Now let's talk about the coalition what the president, now former candidate for reelection Joe Biden really struggled with was holding the Democratic coalition together. Where is Kamala Harris on that?

CHALIAN: She's definitely making up ground with some of these key core constituencies. If you look here, this is a poll that we did with SSRS, contacting people we have pulled in April and June, right, so you can actually track the movement.

And you see here, young voters, it was a seven-point advantage for Trump in the spring over Biden. Now, Kamala Harris has a four-point advantage among young voters, black voters. Joe Biden at a 47-point advantage in the spring. Kamala Harris has increased that to a 63- percentage point advantage there. Hispanic voters, Harris narrows Trump's advantage.

But I just want to note again, Donald Trump numerically ahead among Hispanic voters within the margin of error. That was a key group in 2020 that Biden won overwhelmingly. So, still work there to do for the Democrats. And among female voters, you see that Harris has increased the lead where they were tied among women when it was Biden on the ticket.

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BASH: These numbers are fascinating, especially given that important piece of information you just gave out, which is that these are our polling company or colleagues went back and talked to the exact same people that they talked to earlier. OK. Let's talk about what voters want from their presumptive new nominee.

CHALIAN: One of the numbers that just jumped off the page when the poll came back, Dana. This was among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents. Do you want the next Democratic nominee. Her name is Kamala Harris. We know.

To continue Biden's policies or take the United States in a new direction. 53 percent, 53 percent say continue Biden's policies, 47 percent say take in a new direction, and near even split among Democrats. Looking for a new direction here, I think that is very interesting to watch forward how Kamala Harris campaigns on that. And then we've talked a lot about this all cycle long. Are you voting for a candidate or against the candidate?

Take a look at what a difference a couple days make. For Harris now, it splits evenly. 50 percent of Harris supporters said, they are casting their vote for her. 50 percent say they're doing it against Trump. Look at what that was when Biden was the nominee. Two thirds of his votes were against Trump, only about a third, 37 percent were for him. Harris changes that equation.

Donald Trump, by the way, gets more affirmative support after the assassination attempt, after his convention. He's now up to 74 percent of his voters who say they are voting to cast their ballot for him, only a quarter say they're casting their ballot to be opposed to Kamala Harris, Dana?

BASH: So, so interesting. So much to dig in on. I'm over at the table now. As you can see, and David is going to be here in just a moment -- Joining us here already -- excuse me. Our CNN's Phil Mattingly, and Seung Min Kim of the Associated Press. Hello.

What is -- Phil, I'm start with you. Excuse me. What's your takeaway of what David just laid out?

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR & CHIEF DOMESTIC CORRESPONDENT: That last data point is the one I'm most fascinated by nerding out on some level, probably going a few layers deeper than maybe most people will be at this point in time. But I think what that shows is what -- I think a lot of us have picked up over the course of the last 36 hours, 48 hours, which is, if you want to know what a collective exhale of an entire political party looks like, look into these numbers.

Both, in the affirmative support of the vice president 50 percent, where I think Joe Biden was 37 percent as David was just showing through. They are excited about a candidate when they weren't prior to now. Because of that you're seeing many of the groups that form up their coalition, as David was running through, start to come back home, which was always the pitch from the Biden team.

They'll come back home eventually. They'll have to come back home eventually. They weren't coming back home. They may have, but they weren't up until the last couple of days. They are starting to now in the key demographic groups (AUDIO GAP) Democrats and Republicans (AUDIO GAP) them to.

BASH: Yeah. And that's obviously, this is a national snapshot. It's important for us to see this. It's going to be those battleground states. Wherever they are at this point, that will tell us who is going to ultimately become president next time around. But just on that question of coming home, a phrase that you just used. Let's look at another way to approach our new numbers that were just getting out. The question, the choice for president, face the question. Right now, Trump is still up three. Again, there is -- this isn't a margin of error situation. But back just a couple of months ago, if you look from April through June, up six. So, there is a slight shift in the direction of the Democrats.

SEUNG MIN KIM, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: And slight shift because of the numbers that David pointed out that so much of the key parts of that -- of that -- energized a nominee again. And, you know, just going back to Phil's point, when -- you know, the Biden campaign's whole theory of the case is that we want it -- once you put Joe Biden up against Donald Trump, people are going to remember the -- remember what they didn't like about the Trump White House and then come home -- come home to the Democratic Party.

But kind of politics one-on-one is you do have to be excited for your party's candidate. And it's just this level of enthusiasm that we're seeing for the Democratic Party is nothing that we saw on the scale of what -- of what we saw in Joe Biden's -- on Joe Biden's behalf for so much over the last year, year and a half.

And another number that I was just so struck by at the poll where it said 90 percent of Democrats approved a Biden's decision to end his candidacy. I mean, we knew that that was -- I mean, that tells you his staying in the race was going to be an unsustainable situation. And just whether that energy of the Democratic Party right now, you know, bleeds into those independent voters that are so critical that President Biden won in 2020.

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That, you know, foreign President Trump is doing better with right now, yet to be seen clearly. But I think that -- you know, I don't know if Democrats could have had a better 48 hours or how over many days it's been since Sunday.

BASH: What is an hour?

KIM: You know, we don't know.

BASH: You mentioned in the -- as you said, the data point that jumped off the page at you about what the voters want, specifically about kind of looking forward and so forth. And that is clearly something that Kamala Harris in the past two days has been leaning much more into. But she's also been leaning into other issues that she and other Democrats believe animate the base and swing voters that she clearly feels more comfortable talking about than Joe Biden. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: I took on the big Wall Street banks and held them accountable for fraud. Donald Trump was just found guilty of fraud on 34 counts. And we who believe in reproductive freedom, will stop Donald Trump's extreme abortion bans because we trust women to make decisions about their own body. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: David?

CHALIAN: Yeah. You're right that, you know, obviously, Joe Biden was talking on the campaign trail about reproductive rights as well. But she has been the foreperson for the entire --

BASH: Not like that.

CHALIAN: Not like that, exactly. And obviously, speaks as a female, it has a whole different kind of resonance, no doubt, but she's been the point person. And so, that's clearly going to be front and center. What I find so interesting, though, about this notion that half of Democrats or Democratic leaders want her to propose policies that take them in a different direction, in a new direction, not just -- so she's going to have to both obviously defend and rely on and lean into the Biden administration's accomplishments.

But she also is now going to have to chart her own course of it. Because the key pieces in the constituency, the younger voters, the voters of color, they're the ones that are more inclined to say, I want to see a new direction from Biden policy, is not a repeat. The older voters, the white voters, which again, that she -- that are part of her coalition that she needs to hold on to. They're the ones that say, I want you to continue Biden's policies. So, she is going to have to somehow find her own way, while also keeping the Biden policy.

BASH: I just wonder, and I'm sure that these voters really were talking about policies. But I just wonder when they say policy, how much they're really thinking like a new person, a new generation, and why you answer that? That is the vice president. She just landed in Indianapolis. She is going there, not for a campaign event, but for an official event where she is going to be speaking to a group of black sorority members. Go ahead -- not first sorority.

CHALIAN: Yeah. Not hers, but one of the define nine, and obviously, this has been a key piece of constituency work that she's been doing actually even before she was vice president. This has been a key part. But we know what African American women mean to the Democratic Party as a -- as an important part. And so, yes, she's doing that today.

But I would just -- I agree with you. I think part of it is new, fresh, new ideas. There's no doubt about it. But I do think we are going to have to start to hear from her. What are -- what does a Harris administration look like? What are you -- what's your healthcare policy? What is your plan on? How you're going to get voting rights across the line when the Biden ministration couldn't or what have you?

MATTINGLY: Yeah. I think on the policy front, what I'm fascinating to watch is, there are a lot of voters who might say they want a new direction on policy within the Democratic Party, who maybe didn't have a full understanding of what the Biden administration has actually done. If you listen to the vice president talk about what they have done in their first three and a half years, she does it in a very forceful way. She connects those two specific issues that the base really cares about. It's still Biden economic policies, in many cases are the Biden climate policies. In many cases, the difference is who's actually delivering the mess.

BASH: That was kind of --

MATTINGLY: Yeah. And I don't know whether or not that's going to answer the question for the 47 percent who would like things to head in a new direction or would like new policies to be laid out. But I do want to watch because I think that just having somebody who can make the case forcefully on a day-to-day basis on the trail may actually shift how people feel about how this administration has done.

BASH: Because this is Inside Politics and not inside policy, as much as I would like to do many segments on that. I do want to quickly note the political memo that Jen O'Malley Dillon. She is one of the leaders of the now Harris campaign released yesterday on the map strategy.

She said, we continue to focus on the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and the sunbelt states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, where the vice president's advantages with young voters, black voters and Latino voters will be important to our multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes.

[12:15:00]

We intend to play offense in each of these states. And we have the resources and campaign infrastructure to do so. What strikes me is multiple pathways to 270. You didn't hear Biden people talking about multiple pathways. A couple of days ago, they were talking about getting -- keeping that blue wall built.

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: Yeah.

CHALIAN: It took very straight --

(CROSSTALK)

MATTINGLY: The sunbelt states all fall together.

KIM: Right. But is that Jen O'Malley Dillon and the campaign had said in another -- in separate memo, maybe about a week or so after that disastrous debate. But that said, we're focusing on the blue wall states. You know, the sunbelt states were, quote, not out of reach, which was political code for like, yeah, if we can get them, but we're going to focus on these three states for now.

So, the tone and how they feel that they can go on offense. Now with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket is so fascinating. And another part of that memo that was really interesting was just that, they now have a bigger universe of persuadable voters, because people don't know Harris as well as they do Biden. So, they feel like that's an opportunity for them as well.

BASH: As David Chalian has been saying to us, the race to define Kamala Harris. You are looking or about to look at live pictures of thousands of protesters on Capitol Hill ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's addressed to Congress. But first, the FBI director is giving new details about the Trump rally shooter. It's happening right now. We're going to take you inside the room after a quick break.

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BASH: Right now, the FBI director is facing questions from Congress over the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. The hearing was originally meant to serve as an update for Congress and was scheduled before the terrifying events of July 13. But the stakes are now much higher for Director Christopher Wray, especially following the resignation of Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle a day after her contentious questioning on Monday.

CNN's Evan Perez joins me now. Evan, we should say that one of the main reasons -- really the main reason why his testimony related to this assassination attempt is so important is because the FBI is in charge of the investigation.

EVAN PEREZ, CNN SENIOR JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Right, Dana. He is in charge of the investigation that is looking at the shooter and everything that they've been able to figure out about the plot, about the effort to go after the former president, and whether there was any political or ideological motivation.

So far, they haven't actually found that. But he's offering very, very new important information about the week before the Butler rally, where the attacker carried out this attack on the former president. Important and new information that tells us a little bit about his state of mind -- the shooter state of mind, and that he was at least preparing for carrying out this attack beginning on October 6. So -- I'm sorry, July 6.

We know that he was doing a search of the DNC on that day. And what we just learned from the FBI director is that on July 6, he also did a search about the Kennedy assassination. Listen to the director's description on this.

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CHRISTOPHER WRAY, FBI DIRECTOR: Analysis of a laptop that the investigation ties to the shooter reveals that on July 6, he did a Google search for quote, how far away was Oswald from Kennedy. And so that's a search that obviously is significant in terms of his state of mind. That is the same day that it appears that he registered for the Butler rally.

(END VIDEO CLIP) PEREZ: And Dana, that's important new information again about this investigation because it fills in some of the timeline. We know on July 6, again, he was researching about the date of the DNC. We also know July 7, he went to the site of the Butler rally. And it also -- we also learned today, Dana, that he had this collapsible stock on this firearm, which allowed him to hide this rifle that he used to carry out the attack. Dana?

BASH: I mean, to hear the FBI director, talk about the fact that he was looking into googling Lee Harvey Oswald, and how far away that was, is chilling. It really is. Thank you so much for that report. Evan, appreciate it.

And coming up, we're going to take you live to Capitol Hill ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's addressed to Congress. There are certainly a lot of protesters outside. And we are going to talk to the parents of a 20-year-old American held captive by Hamas and Gaza for 291 days. They're going to talk about what they want to hear from the Israeli prime minister, next.

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BASH: Right now, there are protesters on Capitol Hill as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to address Congress in just about an hour and a half. CNN's Brian Todd is in the crowds. Brian, what are you hearing and seeing?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Dana, a group of very boisterous passionate loud protesters here, mostly peaceful so far. We can tell you we're between third and fourth streets Northwest on Pennsylvania Avenue. The group has by and large use this park here as kind of a staging area. And then they've tended to kind of come this way. And we can kind of show you the breadth of this as we move this way across toward the stage where the speeches are going on.

And that's where the crowd kind of gets more dense in part. Photojournalist Jonathan O'Beirne and I are going to kind of walk this way. As we talk about what's been happening today. A protest organizer took to the stage not too long ago and claim that they have succeeded in blocking about six intersections

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