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Inside Politics

New Battleground State Polls Show Razor-Thin Margin; Trump Lead On Handling Economy Narrows In Key State; Polls Show A Deadlocked Race With 47 Days To Go; Trump Says He'll Visit Springfield, Ohio In "Next Two Weeks"; Harris-Walz Campaign Fighting To Win Crucial Support From Men; New Poll: Harris Leads By 12 With Women, Trump Leads By 14 With Men; "White Dudes For Harris" Launches $10M Digital Ad Buy. Aired 12- 12:30p ET

Aired September 19, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Today on Inside Politics, tighter than an unopened jar of pickles. A slew of new polls from three crucial swing states show a remarkably consistent reality. The country is divided, and the presidential race is up for grabs. We'll break down the numbers and what it means for both candidates pass to 270.

Plus, team Harris is relying on Tim Walz to cut into a huge source of support for Donald Trump. Men, the group White Dudes for Harris, is also launching a ten million digital ad buy. But will anything narrow the gaping wide gender gap and snubbed.

A major union decides against endorsing either presidential candidate for the first time in nearly three decades. Donald Trump is calling it an honor, but is it? I'll ask the teamsters president, Sean O'Brien, who is my guest this hour.

I'm Dana Bash, reporting today from Los Angeles. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

47 days, less than seven weeks, 1116 hours, this race could not possibly be any closer. Let's start with Pennsylvania. There have been four new polls of the keystone state released in the past 24 hours.

And when you average them all together in a CNN Poll of Polls, Kamala Harris holds a slim lead, but effectively it's a tie. It's a similar situation. In Wisconsin, Harris holds a one-point lead in two new polls there, well within the margin of error. In Michigan, though, Harris holds a five-point lead in two new polls.

It's clear that both campaigns now have multiple paths to 270 and it's clear that this race is anyone's to take as early voting begins. 67 million people watched the debate last week. Most say, it was a resounding win for Harris, and yet, the numbers in the battleground states that will decide the election have barely budged. I'm joined now by two fantastic reporters and friends Puck News' Peter Hamby and the Washington Post's Maeve Reston. Also, two former CNN colleagues and campaign trail buddies from 2008 McCain campaign -- Mitt Romney. We can go on and on, but let's talk about 2024.

Maeve, what's your overall take away from what we're seeing right now?

MAEVE RESTON, NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER, THE WASHINGTON POST: It's just, you know, being I was out with Harris last week, and it just feels so tight out there. I mean, it's fascinating in that those Pennsylvania polls, like show her, maybe with a little bit of an edge. But you still get the sense that there are so many people that, you know, were impressed by the debate, but still feel like they don't know enough about her.

There are so many voters that, you know, haven't been tuned in the way that we have. And then there's sort of a lot of, you know, skepticism about just what this is all going to look like. You know, there's a lot of people that are feeling not ready for the Trump chaos once again, but aren't sure if they know enough about Harris to really dig in.

So, I mean, I think we're just at this formative time where they're trying to figure out the economic message that hits, particularly with those male voters that they really need to bring over to their side. And she's still trying out a lot of different things.

BASH: Yeah. And on the economy, let's dig into that. Peter, just looking at the Quinnipiac poll, better job handling the economy. Pennsylvania, Trump has a two-point advantage. Michigan, Trump has a two-point advantage. Wisconsin, Trump has a four-point advantage, we should say advantage, but clearly within the margin of error.

And then just looking separately at a New York Times poll. This is about Pennsylvania, Trump 51, Harris 47. Now it's definitely very, very tight on the economy. It is quite a different picture than when Joe Biden was running on the ticket, particularly on the economy.

PETER HAMBY, PARTNER, PUCK NEWS: Joe Biden was losing that economy number in some polls by 15 points on all the attribute questions, and this probably has a lot to do with how voters proceed with Joe Biden and his age. Kamala Harris has closed the gap in a lot of ways. If I'm her and I'm Democrats, I like that economy number.

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On that question, who do you trust to handle the economy more? Republicans have always had a built-in advantage there. You just mentioned Mitt Romney, right? Like, they are perceived as being business guys and people who are going to be better on taxes. It's just sort of built-in to the Republican brand that they win on the economy.

Democrats win presidential elections, when they get that number close to parity. So, Biden got 50-50 against Trump in 2020 on that economy question. Obama in 2012, I think he came within four points of Romney, again, the business guy.

So, Harris has to like that number. All of the sub questions and the attribute numbers, generally speaking, I think are good for Harris, and all these top line numbers, all these polls that came out today, great, as Maeve mentioned, she's probably winning in these states.

But what the reality is under the hood is that it's just very, very close. Your lead tighter than a jar pickles -- hotter than a Laredo parking lot, Dana Bash doing Dan Rather. That's right. That's the only thing you need to know about this race. And it's boring to viewers, maybe, but it is just close no matter --

BASH: I think it's --

HAMBY: Congress winning by two or, sorry --

BASH: Is the opposite are boring because we just don't know, yeah, but it just shows how any little thing could potentially move the needle. Maybe you have been spending a lot of time out. I mean, you both have out in the real world, as I say, particularly in Pennsylvania. I mean, how many times have we spent time in those Philadelphia suburbs?

RESTON: Yeah.

BASH: Talking to those swing voters, the suburban women in particular, trying to figure out what's going to move them. One thing I'm kind of obsessed with, and I want to know what you're hearing, is the fact that, on the one hand, we know from Republicans who ran the Trump campaign in 2016. That it was about a feeling and less about like a 70-point plan that Hillary Clinton would put out there.

And yet, voter after voter after voter will say, I just want to hear more about what her policy is on the economy. Do they really want to know about the policy, or is there something else going on there?

RESTON: You know, I feel like it's -- you do right now. Hear so much kind of coded language where you'll talk to voters, and particularly, we always know that, like women voters are often harder on women candidates than they are on male candidates.

But being out in the Philly suburbs, like you hear things all the time that are like, you know, I just don't know enough about her yet, or I just don't know if she would be strong enough up against world leaders. I mean, Trump seems like he would be really strong.

And so, I think the debate helped in that sense for them to kind of show people that she could punch hard. But there still are a lot of those, particularly those suburban women voters that maybe aren't sure they want to deal with all the Trump stuff again but aren't quite sure about her yet.

And it's really -- there's a lot of, like latent sexism, you know, in America, and you hear, and sometimes I think it's unconscious because it's just someone that we haven't -- we haven't seen a woman in that job yet. And so, a lot of times people will say things like, well, I'm ready to vote for a woman, but like, I'm not sure the rest of the country is ready for that, you know. And all of Trump's comments about like, how Harris would be manipulated like a play toy, all play into that.

But, you know, that is one of the reasons I think that they're having her talk a good amount about foreign policy, in particular, because they think that that -- you know, that's one of the subject areas, even though that's not what people generally vote on, it makes her strong. It's the commander --

BASH: And then just the flip side, we don't really know what Donald Trump will do. I mean, we have a broad tax plan. We have a concept of a plan on healthcare, which has been -- what he's been saying since 2016. So, there isn't equity here right, which, you know, and then you could say, well, that life and life isn't fair.

HAMBY: It's funny the polls again, in these sub questions. One of them is like, how much -- how much do you think you know about what Trump will do? You know Kamala Harris only gets like 60 percent there, and like Trump gets like 89, 90 percent. People don't know what Trump's going to do.

BASH: Absolutely. Trump doesn't know what Trump is going to do.

HAMBY: That's a good example of voters telling pollsters something that they think they should say. I think -- I also want to talk about white men. White men are also really important in these --

BASH: We're going to talk about that in the next block a lot.

HAMBY: Right.

BASH: Don't worry, white men are going to get the deal finally, in the first time in history. Don't go anywhere, because I want to turn to Donald Trump. He is in Washington, D.C. today. He is going to speak tonight at an event about fighting antisemitism. Last night, he held a big rally in New York, where he laid out some of his potential future travel plans.

CNN's Steve Contorno is covering the former president's campaign. Steve? Oh, OK. We lost Steve. Sorry about that. I will fill you in on what we think that he is going to do. And when I say he, I'm talking about Donald Trump. He said last night that he might go to Aurora, Colorado. He might go to Springfield, Ohio.

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I will tell you that I was communicating with the mayor of Springfield this morning, who is -- by the way, I should say, is a nonpartisan role. He personally is a Republican. He is still very concerned about the notion of either candidate coming. He said it would be very difficult to have either a candidate visit our community right now.

HAMBY: I mean, Trump has a habit of going to these, you know, hot zones when he feels like he can gain an advantage when the Trinity railman happened in East Palestine, good example. That was not in the heat of the final seven weeks of an election. It was not against the backdrop of a, you know, racially inflammatory story.

People from all over the country, Trump supporters are going to Springfield to protest. I mean, I don't know what else to say about this, other than Trump doesn't care about any of those factors. He will go if he thinks he sees an advantage there.

But I will say, like on this issue, Kamala Harris probably doesn't want to be talking about immigration all the time. The Trump campaign thinks it's healthy to talk -- I'm sorry, good for them to be talking about immigration. They're on offense.

I do think this bleeds into the chaos problem for Trump, like Trump lost that debate. Polls show it. New York Times poll today showed it. People didn't like what they saw. And so, while the Trump campaign thinks that they're on offense by talking about Springfield. And by the way, this isn't undocumented border crossing --

BASH: It's not immigration.

HAMBY: It's a legal Haitian folks who are being resettled in this town. It does bleed into the chaos stuff that people don't like about it.

RESTON: That's a real risk of him going too far, and yeah, reminding everyone of that really divisive.

BASH: When I say immigration, I put my --

RESTON: Yeah.

BASH: Just a real quick. I want to mention something that happened last night, which is in response to what Sarah Huckabee Sanders said to Donald Trump about the fact that a woman, Kamala Harris, in particular, doesn't have humility because she doesn't have her own kids to keep her humble at home. Doug Emhoff, Kamala Harris's husband reacted to that. I just want to quickly listen to what he said.

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DOUG EMHOFF, VP KAMALA HARRIS'S HUSBAND: They said that somehow, because Cole and Ella aren't kamala's "biological children" that she doesn't have anything in her life to keep her humble. As if keeping women humble, whether you have children or not, is something we should strive for. And the women in this country will never humble themselves before Donald Trump.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RESTON: I just think this issue is such a loser for Republicans. You know, it's surprising that Huckabee Sanders, like as savvy as she is, went in that direction. And I think, you know, this is an example of Doug speaking up about this. We probably won't hear from Harris for a bit. She is avoiding those kinds of attacks, and they think that's the best strategy. BASH: Yeah. OK. Don't go anywhere, because we will finally talk about why --

HAMBY: That's time out.

BASH: Coming up, working the white dude vote. Can Tim Walz chip away at Donald Trump's lead? The entire race could depend on it. Plus, there's no excuse to sit at this election, even if you are currently not on planet Earth. Stay tuned for how two trapped astronauts will cast their ballots.

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BASH: Kamala Harris is turning to her running mate, Tim Walz, hoping he is the secret weapon who can chip away at Donald Trump's support from men. CNN's takes a closer look.

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GOV. TIM WALZ (D-MN), 2024 VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Cracks in the glass ceiling are enough. We need to make sure that that glass ceiling is shattered, and Kamala Harris steps through.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): Tim Walz is hard at work on one of his most important assignments.

WALZ: You saw it, Kamala Harris can take care of herself. Our job is to do the blocking and tackling and cover her back.

ZELENY (voiceover): He and his running mate rarely discussed gender, yet to gender gap may help decide the election. Strong support from women has put Kamala Harris within reach of defeating Donald Trump.

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE U.S., (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When we fight, we win.

ZELENY (voiceover): Her campaign is racing to win over another critical set of voters, men.

ANTHONY HERNANDEZ, UNDECIDED NORTH CAROLINA VOTER: It'll be phenomenal to have the first female president. And that's exciting.

ZELENY (voiceover): Yeah.

HERNANDEZ: Also, Donald Trump is a strong president, you know? He gets things done.

ZELENY (voiceover): Anthony Hernandez, a 36-year-old North Carolina voter, is among those at the center of an intense tug of war. His ultimate decision holds clues for November.

ZELENY: Sir, are you undecided? HERNANDEZ: Definitely undecided. Yeah. I didn't know Kamala was so well-spoken, you know. That was a change from Biden.

ZELENY (voiceover): The Trump campaign is working to widen its advantage with male voters overall, particularly young men, with the former president deploying old school muscle. As Democrats take a far different approach to chip away at Trump's edge, with Walz speaking directly to husbands and fathers.

WALZ: Do you want J. D. Vance deciding about your wife and daughter's help?

CROWD: No, no.

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ZELENY (voiceover): His frequent retort on abortion rights.

WALZ: Mind your own damn business.

ZELENY (voiceover): Struck a chord with Tobey Pierce, who saw Walz Tuesday night in Asheville.

TOBEY PIERCE, NORTH CAROLINA HARRIS VOTER: It's none of your damn business. It's my model now. I think, it's a wonderful way to talk about the whole abortion right. It's not surprising.

ZELENY (voiceover): At a rain-soaked rally, Alex Vigil and Kevin Miller said, they believe Trump exhaustion could help Democrats make inroads with men and women alike.

ALEX VIGIL, NORTH CAROLINA HARRIS VOTER: I've seen a lot less Trump flags in our parking lot. I'm seeing a lot more of my staff who used to be for Trump, a little more excited or a little pushing Trump away.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm hoping that it's going to be a surprise, it will be a lot more men than we think.

ZELENY (voiceover): This t-shirt was a gift to Bruce Sergeant from his daughter, after Trump was first elected. He knows he's in the minority when it comes to how many men vote.

BRUCE SARGENT, NORTH CAROLINA HARRIS VOTER: We're going to rely on a lot of the women right now, that men just need you to stand behind those women and come out with them.

ZELENY (voiceover): It's an open question just how many men will do that, even those here like Stanley Benedict, not fully enamored with Trump, plan to vote for him.

STANLEY BENEDICT, NORTH CAROLINA TRUMP VOTER: He's got a big ego. And sometimes it's too big because to this horror lot. But I support him because he proved himself.

ZELENY (voiceover): While the outcome of the Trump-Harris duel may turn on the gender gap or the balance of who men and women support. In this election, gender itself is far less apart the discussion.

WALZ: Kamala Harris isn't talking about the historic nature of this. She just puts her nose down and does the work.

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JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: That gender gap will be one of the central challenges for both sides in the final stretch of this campaign. Dana, a new poll out this morning from the New York Times makes that point. Specifically, Harris down some 14 points among men, Trump down 12 points among women. That could make the difference as both sides try to claw back from support from the respective sides. Dana?

BASH: Jeff Zeleny, thank you so much for that. Peter and Maeve are back here. Peter, I want to go to something that you wrote this week on this very issue called the Gen Z bro vote. So, we're even -- we're going specifically to the younger men.

Can anyone name a Democrat who can go into the media spaces where Trump is popular, the Nelk Boys, Theo Von, Joe Rogan, and make the case for Harris? Bernie Sanders has done several of them, but it hasn't moved the needle. Walz himself could appear on new heights, one of our favorites in my house, with the Kelce brothers or Pardon My Take to talk football. But again, I don't see how that changes the Gen Z bro vote in a meaningful way at this point.

HAMBY: There's been a lot of conversation about young men this cycle in the cross tabs are, is Trump going to win them? And it's been kind of up in the air. But at this point, I do think that the gender gap is basically very real, with seven -- six weeks to go into the election. And the Gen Z men vote is kind of unrecoverable at this point.

So, ABC News, Washington Post, put out a poll last weekend. Sort of tracks with some other data I've seen. Harris is winning young women by like 38 points. So that gender gap is massive. She's only winning young men by three points over Trump, that drift from 2020, is very real.

Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, twice. They could all count on young men, even if they were losing older men. That advantage is now completely gone. A lot of it -- I mean, we can get into why this is happening. Some of it is culture. Some of it is Trump's macho brand. A lot of it's the economy. So, Kamala Harris is running on some economic issues, of course, but abortion that favors women.

Young men name the economy as their top issue. Young women name abortion as their top issue. Young men are on college campuses. They're enrolled in colleges at lower rates than they were a few years ago. They're a smaller part of the labor force compared to women than they were a few years ago.

And so, if you're a young person against all of the economic headwinds that currently exist in our society, and you're trying to get access to the economy, get a job, get a loan, buy a car, it's harder. That's true for all young people, but young men in particular feel that. And then on top of that, you have the, you know, anti-wokeism and the pronoun stuff, and the things that just appeal young man. And Donald Trump, he plays golf with Bryson DeChambeau. He goes on Theo Von. He talks about Zyn. And, you know, Democrats -- I'm sorry, like, they haven't had a cool guy candidate in a while.

And like, you know, with all due respect to Tim Walz, like Tim Walz appeals to a lot of men, he also appeals to that guy, Bruce, Jeff's package. She's wearing a futurist female shirt.

BASH: Yeah.

HAMBY: Like that guy in Madison, Wisconsin is already going to vote Democrat. I'm sorry. How do you reach the young man?

BASH: Yeah. I think the woke, which is term that can encompass a lot of things is also a big part of this. Team Harris, or at least the forces that want her to win are not totally giving up, especially since they have a lot of money. Listen to what the group White Dudes for Harris is doing in a new ad.

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(PLAYING VIDEO)

BASH: And Maeve, this is a big ad by 10 million on digital platforms in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

RESTON Yeah. And it's -- you know, it's so centered on all of those economic issues because, of course, like what has always appealed to younger men and younger men of color. A lot of whom I talked to, you know, in Georgia, is that sort of aspirational wealth idea, you know, that the Trump understands business and that he would help them, you know, build -- build their own wealth and buy -- you know, buy homes, et cetera.

And so, she's really -- you know, she's using -- talking a lot about housing policy. What she's doing to bring down the bills. But I just will have to say that, you know, it was really striking at her rallies, like just looking out into that crowd and seeing how female it is.

You know, I was actually at all of her rallies last week, going to find men to talk to. And it was hard, a couple places hunting like, because there was a lot of those guys that are like in the future as female t-shirt that were like, brought there by their wives.

But it wasn't the same thing as like in the Obama campaign, for example, where you had sort of like the curious onlookers that were last in the room, kind of checking her out. There is a feeling of, sort of right now, so much excitement, but a lot of preaching to the converted, and Donald Trump is doing the same thing as well. But I do think that this is a big challenge for her.

BASH: And a real quick. HAMBY: And also, white men are not a monolith. A white suburban guy outside of Philly might care about crime, a reason Kamala Harris is struggling. In Pennsylvania, she's doing worse among white college educated men in the suburbs than Biden did in 2020. Wisconsin, more like the futures female guy, like white men, white people who are went to college in Wisconsin give Democrats, like North Korea level margins and like Madison.

Like there are different kinds of voters in these different states, which just to cinch it up to the back of the -- top of the show, we need to look under these top lines. The race is very close, and all these states are very different.

BASH: I learned so much from you guys. It's great to see you.

RESTON: Mee too.

BASH: We'll continue after the show. Coming up. The all-important union endorsement that Kamala Harris is not getting. The president of the Teamsters will be here to explain his group's decision, not to endorse anyone in the 2024 presidential race.

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