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Robinson: Not Gonna Focus On "Salacious False Lies"; Stein: Robinson "Unfit" To Be North Carolina Governor; New NYT Polls: Trump Showing Strength In Sun Belt States; Harris To Travel To Pennsylvania, Arizona And Nevada This Week; NBC Poll: Harris Sees Double-Digit Increase In Popularity Since July; Republicans Step Up Efforts To Change Nebraska Electoral Law; CNN Poll Of Polls: Harris 49 Percent, Trump 47 Percent In Pennsylvania. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired September 23, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Today on Inside Politics, Sun Belt strength. Brand new polls show Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in the crucial state of Arizona, while the race is deadlocked in Georgia and North Carolina with no signs there of a post-debate bump for Kamala Harris.

Plus, a chilling letter from the suspect in the second Trump assassination attempt, making his plans to try to kill the former president clear and urging others to finish the job. We're going to bring you the breaking developments from the court hearing this morning.

And get ready to wait. We have new reporting on how and when votes will be counted in critical battleground states. The bottom line, it won't be quick, which means, we may not know the White House winner until days after Election Day.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

We start in North Carolina, a state Kamala Harris is trying to turn blue for the first time in 16 years. A new poll out this morning shows, it is a dead heat in the Tar Heel State, Trump holds a statistically insignificant two-point lead. But that poll was conducted mostly before CNN uncovered disturbing, racist, antisemitic and X rated posts from Donald Trump's pick for governor in North Carolina.

Republicans feared the bombshell report could cost Trump the state. This morning, Mark Robinson held his first campaign event since most of his campaign team quit yesterday afternoon.

CNN's Dianne Gallagher has been following Robinson for us this morning and this whole race for governor in North Carolina. Dianne?

DIANNE GALLAGHER, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. Look, right now this is the first appearance that Mark Robinson has made since the departure from nearly all of his campaign staff. Eight of his senior campaign staff members, including his top senior adviser, two political directors, his finance director, as well as the campaign manager and deputy campaign manager, all left the campaign this weekend, saying they did so on their own accord.

Robinson addressing that today when asked by members of the media, saying that they were working on trying to find new members for their campaign right now to help, still quote, take them to victory. But Robinson has been fighting off concerns from Republicans all over North Carolina after that KFile investigation that came out on Thursday.

Robinson has denied that and tried to keep the focus on what his campaign says, he plans to do for North Carolinians and his supporters. About 45 to 50 of them showed up at this event, along with the smattering of protesters as well. But Robinson says that he's going to try and stay focused on what his campaign position is when speaking to those supporters.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARK ROBINSON (R) NORTH CAROLINA GOV. CANDIDATE: We're here for small business people. We're here for all those parents out there that are losing their children to fentanyl. We're here for all those people out there that are struggling to keep the small businesses open.

We're here for the people who are -- we're here for the people who are struggling to get their children a decent education. We're not here to talk about 15- or 20-year-old, salacious, false lives. They don't want to talk about what's going on right now. They want to talk about what possibly happened 15 years ago.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GALLAGHER: Of course, that sounds like he is alluding to that KFile investigation of those posts on that pornographic site message board. Look, you talked about how close it is here in North Carolina, at the top of the ticket between Trump and Harris. There are people in North Carolina, Republicans who are concerned about what the scandal surrounding Robinson could mean for the top of the Republican ticket.

But even more so, what it means down ballot here. and we have seen many of these Republicans who are running for statewide office or legislative districts, their opponents Democrats are doing anything they can to try and link them with Mark Robinson right now, finding pictures, endorsements, any kind of nice thing they may have ever said about him and putting it out there.

At the moment, one person who isn't talking about Mark Robinson, Donald Trump. He held an event here in North Carolina over the weekend, didn't mention Mark Robinson's name. Didn't have him with him, of course, in the past. Mark Robinson had been at these events, even speaking at the RNC, Dana, doesn't have a whole lot of friends, it appears like, at least publicly right now in his own party.

BASH: Yeah. I mean, there's a lot to unpack there, but the imagery of Mark Robinson standing there, holding his own sign alone, really does speak volumes. Thank you so much, Dianne, for all that great reporting.

Mark Robinson's opponent in North Carolina, Josh Stein told Jake Tapper yesterday that the CNN story only highlights Robinson's previous comments.

[12:05:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOSH STEIN (D) NORTH CAROLINA GOV. CANDIDATE: Mark Robinson is absolutely unfit to be the governor of North Carolina. And that was true before he compliments Hitler. He says he's a Nazi. He buys little toy S.S. soldiers. He says slavery. He wants to bring it back, things that defy comprehension, but those only are in keeping with what he has said throughout his entire public life.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Joining me now to talk more about this and more broadly, the 2024 campaign, some terrific reporters, CNN's David Chalian, CNN's Priscilla Alvarez and CNN's own Manu Raju, the host of Inside Politics Sunday.

David Chalian, I'm going to start with you. We know that historically, North Carolina is one of those states where voters are more apt to ticket split than in other states. But this is such a huge story in North Carolina, what -- you know, all of the tumult around Mark Robinson. Any sense from your sources about how that is going to affect the top of the ticket?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: First of all, apparently calling for a return of slavery. Not a good campaign strategy. Not really good politics there. Listen, in reality, talking to the presidential campaigns about this, nobody has yet seen any real movement on the presidential campaign because of this story. The story just broke at the end of last week. Give it some time to be absorbed into the firmament of North Carolina politics.

But as you noted, ticket splitting is not terribly uncommon in the Tar Heel State, even in this world where ticket splitting is becoming more and more uncommon in American politics. You could imagine this story, obviously, Robinson was in a world of hurt in this race before the story ever broke, and it's hard to imagine how he comes back from this.

But think about the races beneath the governor's race on the ballot, all the down ballot races. If you have a depressed Republican turnout, sort of generic Republican turnout that could have a negative impact there. Trump doesn't always have sort of generic Republican turnout. It could be a different coalition of voters that he brings to the polls for Donald Trump.

And so, it's just an unknown right now. If this is going to have an effect on top of the gubernatorial race, go up ballot to the presidential. But I'll tell you something. If I look at J. D. Vance and Donald Trump's campaign schedule this week, they're both in North Carolina this week. The money is being spent at very high levels there from both sides. Harris has been there a ton. This is a totally engaged state. I don't know that I would have said that about the Biden Trump matchup.

BASH: Yeah. And let's look more broadly at where these candidates are going to be this week. I'm glad you brought it up. Kamala Harris, Pennsylvania on Wednesday, Arizona on Friday, Nevada on Sunday. Trump, Pennsylvania and Georgia and Michigan. And then let's look at --

CHALIAN: He did announce that the Trump is going to North Carolina.

BASH: In addition to that, right. In addition to that, that was just an added to what you said. And then just looking at the polls to show you where things are, to bolster more of what David was saying. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, I mean, only Arizona shows Trump with a bit more of a lead, as we talked about the beginning of the show, than the others, which is dead heat.

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. This race has not changed, despite the debate. And really also shows you why Donald Trump does not want to have another debate, because he believes he can win this race -- win this race across the airwaves, just given how voters want to see a change in office and want to change from the Biden years. And that if he can take it to the airwaves, spend a ton of money, as they both are right now to find Kamala Harris in a negative way, perhaps he can grind it out.

So that is the question here. It is still a wide-open race. But just getting back on the North Carolina point, the down ticket aspect could it help -- if there's a strong down ticket candidate, let's say a gubernatorial candidate in North Korea, perhaps it could lift Donald Trump. If it's a weak down ticket candidate, then they could bring him down.

I think a lot about how the governor's race in Pennsylvania in 2022 brought down Mehmet Oz, the Senate candidate, because they had a weak governor's ticket at the top of the candidate. Could that have an impact, either down ticket or Donald Trump? That's a question --

BASH: Right. And then of course, in 2022 Donald Trump wasn't on the -- such a singular.

PRISCILLA ALVAREZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: The Harris campaign is clearly trying to keep North Carolina in play for all these reasons. I was with her last week when she was there, and she didn't name Robinson, but she mentioned Josh Stein's opponent, and tied it to reproductive rights. We see this a lot with the vice president, her campaign in many of the places that she goes.

[12:10:00]

She was trying to really hunker down on that North Carolina because they also timed the reproductive rights bus tour at the same time that she was there, just doubling down on that issue, also putting out an ad, tying Donald Trump to Mark Robinson. But to what you just mentioned there on her campaign schedule, Pennsylvania, she has spent -- I have spent so much time in Pennsylvania over the last several weeks and because it is key to their strategy.

We always talk about the multiple pathways to 270, not only is she going to Pennsylvania this week, but that's where she's expected to unveil her economic proposal. And so, they know this issue and all of these polls we're talking about is top of mind for voters, and it's no mistake --

BASH: That she's going there.

ALVAREZ: OK.

BASH: So, let's put all of these polls in context as to what has happened in the last week or two. Obviously, was the debate a couple of weeks ago now, where Kamala Harris, by all accounts, did you know, clean Donald Trump's clock?

And then, if you look at some of the ancillary headlines that we have seen from Donald Trump and what he is putting out there, it's not exactly, you know, policy focused like at all. In fact, you could argue that they're not positive for him.

In the least, if you are thinking about a traditional persuadable voter campaign trying to get people who aren't sure to come to his side, I mean everything from falsely accusing. We know what happened with cats and dogs in Ohio to Laura Loomer to saying he hates Taylor Swift, and it goes on and on and on.

And yet, David Chalian, you hear time and time again the question from focus groups, from undecided voters. But what about her policies? What is that about? Because he -- yes, he was president, but he hasn't really super articulated his economic policies for a second term besides tax cuts.

CHALIAN: I mean, he was asked this weekend about what his plan is to bring down costs, and it was sort of lacking any kind of specificity and training. I think what it is she's newer to the scene for voters. I mean, it's just -- she's a newer character playing on the main stage in American politics for voters, and so they are wanting to learn more about her.

I don't even know that they necessarily are demanding specific policy proposals, but you said, yes, he's been president. I mean, I think that is part of it though. He was president. Americans observed him as president for four years. I think they have fewer questions in their mind about what does a Trump presidency look like.

And so, that is why I think there are questions still for -- as you decide -- undecided, persuadable voters who are still yearning for a bit more on her. But I will say, you said, put all this polling in context. What we do see since the debate is that in national polls, there is this slight upward movement for Harris.

BASH: Yeah. Can I -- while you're talking about this, because I want to bolster what you're saying, favorability. Harris's favorability, and this may be where you're going with this. In the NBC poll in July, she wasn't the candidate yet, 32 percent, now 48 percent. That's a big jump in this political environment.

CHALIAN: Historic. I mean, they compare it -- they only saw in NBC polling history. Not since George W. Bush's favorability changed after 9/11 so dramatically. Have they seen that before --and he was not an active candidate for president at the time. For an active candidate for president in the history of NBC polling, they've never seen that kind of turnaround in favorability. So that is -- that is the benefit of the debate.

Now, that's not how we elect presidents, right? It is this path to 270 electoral votes. That seems unchanged so far. That seems to be still a real coin flip, but she -- the debate clearly in a national perspective, is helping her.

RAJU: Yeah. I mean, talking to Democrats, what really is concerning them is the economic numbers. She -- he is still leading her in pretty much all polls about who you trust to lead and the economy. The concern being that she's not drawing either enough of a contrast or going after his economic record, how Democrats believe.

People are looking at his record in rose-colored glasses in the years past, forgetting what happened during COVID. And they believe she needs to prosecute that argument more effectively, otherwise this is going to go the wrong way in November.

ALVAREZ: Just going back to NBC poll, there's one interesting point is. It said 40 percent of voters say they're more concerned that Harris will continue the same approach as President Joe Biden. That is the challenge. It's not just getting to know her. It's how is she different from the president. And I will say, having covered both campaigns, President Biden talked about Bidenomics quite a bit. We're not hearing that from the vice president. It's the opportunity economy.

CHALIAN: Its Donald Trump's campaign --

(CROSSTALK)

CHALIAN: -- Bidenomics all the time.

ALVAREZ: But there's clearly a shift in framing to for that reason.

BASH: Such a good discussion. But don't go anywhere, because there's a lot more to talk about. Up next, shocking details out of a second Trump assassination attempt. We're going to go live to Florida, where the alleged would be assassin is back in court today.

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[12:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: I want to turn now to the electoral vote that could decide the presidential election. And no, it is not in a battleground state. I'm talking about Nebraska, which splits its votes by congressional district.

Now Donald Trump's allies are begging Nebraska Republicans to change that. Why? Because Vice President Harris's easiest path to 270 would be winning the three blue wall states and a single electoral vote in Nebraska.

[12:20:00]

Without that vote in Nebraska, the map could look like this. 269 to 269, a tie that withdrew the election to the House of Representatives, and since the House of Representatives is run by Republicans, it would likely mean a Trump win. Senator Lindsey Graham is leading the charge. He was in the Cornhusker State last week to make the case.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): The entire federal delegation of Nebraska, House members and two senators want this change. To my friends in Nebraska, that one electoral vote could be the difference between Harris being president not and she's a disaster for Nebraska and the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: My panel is back with me. Manu, this is so brazen.

RAJU: Yeah.

BASH: And it's so unbelievably brazen.

RAJU: And he wasn't hearing anything from the Democrats, it's actually kind of remarkable here. You would expect that they would say that this could change the entire outcome of the election. Some people are a little bit uneasy about it within the GOP. Now one person, Don Bacon, who represents that very district that could turn blue. He is a Republican, battling to hang on this seat.

He really says, the country should just be consistent. He's staying, sticking with his party on this issue for now, saying, if we're going to be winner take all, maybe the whole country should be winner take all, or should do it by his state does it by congressional district. Right now, he's on the same side of his own team here, but the pressures on for the votes to change. Will they change right now? It doesn't seem so, but Republican could change his mind.

BASH: And what is so dramatic, David Chalian, is that it really comes down to one person. It comes down to effectively, one state senator, Republican now Republican who switched parties. His name is Mike MacDonald, and Senator McDonald's spokesman said the following.

Senator MacDonald has heard a lot of compelling arguments for and against, but as of right now, he still remains a no vote. The only way he would think about switching would be if someone gave him a compelling reason for why it made sense on the merits of winner-take- all Situation. Reading between the lines is, if you can explain to me why this isn't just about Donald Trump, maybe I'll think about it. CHALIAN: Yeah. And we should note, there are a few more holdouts as well, but it seems if he were to come along, he probably could bring a few of the holdouts along with him and could potentially change the law. The governor has said, waiting for legislative action, willing to do it. And it looks like this could happen right up until Election Day, I mean that they can try and make this change. It is brazen.

Also, let's say, it's brazen, particularly for a party that four years ago, was complaining about changing the rules in the middle of the game. That doesn't seem to be a concern here for Republicans, whether or not it's going to come down to this single electoral vote. We obviously don't know.

BASH: We don't know.

CHALIAN: You know, if you do all the chances, like it's probably more likely than not it doesn't. But you are right. Her most straightforward path, Harris's to the White House is through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

BASH: And Priscilla, I will say, just to sort of follow up on what you were saying about why Democrats aren't being more open about it. My understanding and talking to some Democrats involved in this. It's because they're trying to quietly work these senators, particularly this senator, to say, like, come on. If they're not successful, I'm guessing we're going to hear stop the steal from the Democratic side as a way to say, like, are you kidding me?

ALVAREZ: Well, that -- and I'll tell you what they're also doing publicly. When we talk about all the money that the Harris campaign is bringing in, it's going to ads there, and they're building out their ground game. So, they certainly have their eyes on it, and they're certainly in conversation about it privately and publicly.

BASH: All right, guys. Thank you so much. Don't go anywhere, though, because Donald Trump is in battleground Pennsylvania today. If he pulls off a win there, he likely is headed back to the White House. I'll speak to a GOP lawmaker from the crucial Commonwealth, next?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:25:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: Former President Donald Trump will be in Pennsylvania today. He's got two events scheduled in the western part of the state. Joining me now one of Donald Trump's top supporters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Congressman Dan Meuser. Thank you so much for being here, Congressman.

So, I'm sure you've seen the slew of new polling that we got out of Pennsylvania last week after the presidential debate in Pennsylvania. Poll after poll, we saw an incredibly close race, either a dead heat or a slight Harris lead. At CNN, we do a poll of polls, which effectively says that there's no clear leader in Pennsylvania. One thing that Donald Trump did lead on was what voters say is their top issue, which is the economy. So, my question for you is, if voters say the economy is the top issue, he is their choice more than Kamala Harris. Why can't he move further away from Kamala Harris when it comes to the horse race there?

REP. DAN MEUSER (R-PA): Dana, great being with you. Very good question, because certainly President Trump's record and his policies are -- create a stronger economy, create a stronger national security. I mean, look at his record when he was in office versus Kamala Harris and -- Vice President Harris and Biden's record.

One was high growth, high -- low unemployment, great wages, no inflation, right? A closed border, by the way, and many of the things that Pennsylvanians want, and yet, the Harris formula has been a failed one. And her plans -- the vice president's plans, if she would be president, are really Biden 2.0 more spending, more taxes, more regulations.

So, it's a good question. What we're trying to do is have an informed electorate, the most informed electorate possible.