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Inside Politics

Tensions Rise In Mideast With U.S. Election 37 Days Away; Harris and Trump Neck-And-Neck In New Battleground Polls; This Week: Vance And Walz Go Head-To-Head In VP Debate. Interview with Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy; Top GOP Senators Threaten to Block a Harris Agenda; This Week Carter Becomes First U.S. President to Turn 100. Aired 8-9a ET

Aired September 29, 2024 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:23]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(MUSIC)

MANU RAJU, CNN HOST (voice-over): Lashing out.

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Kamala was born that way.

RAJU: Trump bashes Harris as she tries to close the gap.

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Our system must be orderly and secure.

RAJU: And global developments shake up the race, as the VP candidates gear up for their debate.

SEN. J.D. VANCE (R-OH), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Let's send her back to San Francisco, where she belongs, and put Donald Trump back in the White House.

RAJU: Plus, one on one. Kevin McCarthy live on the state of the GOP and the presidential race.

And gridlock. New swing state polls give some hope to Democrats as they struggle to hold the Senate.

Plus, new reporting on how Republicans could jam up a President Harris agenda.

Would you put a national abortion ban on the floor if you're majority leader?

INSIDE POLITICS, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RAJU (on camera): Good morning and welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. I'm Manu Raju.

The Middle East is on edge this morning following Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday. There are deepening fears that a wider war could engulf the region. It all comes with just 37 days left until Election Day here in the U.S. Vice presidential -- vice presidential debate is this Tuesday.

And with polls showing the race still deadlocked and the candidates spending the weekend in key battleground states.

Now reacting to the news from overseas, Vice President Harris saying in a statement, quote: Today's Hezbollah's victims have a measure of justice, but adding diplomacy remains the best path forward.

Now, Trump was in Wisconsin yesterday where he did not mention the killing of the Hezbollah leader, but he did paint a dark picture of a Harris presidency over the border and he criticized her by saying this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Kamala is mentally impaired. She's incompetent. She's not a smart person. If Kamala is reelected, your town and every town just like it all across Wisconsin and all across our country, the heartland, the coast, it doesn't matter will be transformed into a third world hellhole.

They say no, no, these are migrants. And these migrants, they don't commit crimes like us. No, no, they make our criminals look like babies. These are stone cold killers.

Oh there's a fly. Oh, I wonder where the fly came from.

See? Two years ago, I wouldn't have had to fly up here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: All right. A lot to unpack this morning with a great panel on this consequential weekend, including Susan Page with "USA Today", Astead Herndon with the New York Times. Jasmine Wright would NOTUS, and Dan Balz with "The Washington Post".

Good morning to you all. Thank you all for being here.

A lot to get through. Of course, there's news from overseas. We'll see if it impacts the presidential race. Typically foreign policy issues don't this year. Maybe it's different if things escalate.

But let's talk about where things are right now in this race. And there's just a furious effort ongoing to try to convince that small number of persuadable voters, people who have not made up their mind yet about whether they can vote for Harris or Trump, or maybe they could -- minds can change. A recent poll here shows kind of where that's at.

Battleground voters say 10 percent of battleground voters say that their minds could change. Then you look at independents, that number from a Fox News poll nationally, likely voters, 30 percent of independent voters say their minds could change.

Dan Balz, you are a veteran of many presidential campaigns. Where do -- how do the campaigns view their -- this moment and their strategies for trying to pick off those voters who are still saying, you know, maybe they can change their mind?

DAN BALZ, WASHINGTON POST POLITICAL REPORTER: Yeah, I think the number of people who are truly undecided is very, very small. I think that the more important group of voters are the people who think, they think they know who they would probably vote for, but may not vote. And I think that's the big task for both of these campaigns, and particularly for Vice President Harris's campaigns.

She's lagging among men, among younger men in particular. And they know that. They know that they have to do a better job of getting them out. But I think right now we're into a real battle on turnout. And I think that's the -- that's the -- that's where the race is moving.

RAJU: It's really remarkable just how tight this race is. I mean, look at poll after poll, battleground after battleground, things are just unbelievably close. And CNN has done an average of the most recent battleground state polls.

And you're seeing right there she does have a slightly. Harris does in Michigan, according to a CNN poll of polls.

[08:05:02]

But just deadlocked in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, all within the margin of error. No clear leader in any of those, similarly, in Arizona, in North Carolina.

Susan, you have -- you've covered also many presidential races. Your view of -- is this -- have you seen a race this type of war? Does this remind you of any race? The -- and how do the campaigns get any distance from their opponent?

SUSAN PAGE, USA TODAY WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: You know, I don't think we've never had a presidential race at so close at this point in time, but they face really different challenges because Americans have made up their minds about Donald Trump. There are no persuadable voters. There are almost no left when it comes up when it comes to Donald Trump.

But they haven't made up their minds yet about Kamala Harris. And so that's the task of the next -- next few weeks on both sides to define Kamala Harris in a way that is appealing if you're a Democrat. And that is not appealing if you're a Republican.

RAJU: And the concern for the Harris campaign is about that very issue, defining her in a more favorable, favorable light and about some of the issues that voters care the most about, like the economy.

So let's look into what some of the issues that she is not doing, as well as Trump and needs to do better if you're a Democrat. They look at "The New York Times"/Siena poll just coming out over the weekend. Trump have impact on candidates policies.

What kind of impact does this have? That's the question voters from Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio about Trump's policies, 46 percent say that have helped Donald Trump's policies have helped them. Thirty -- 43 percent say Harris's policies would hurt them.

That said, you talk to the Harris campaign quite frequently, Jasmine, if you look at also this number on the economy, Harris is down to Trump when it's asked who do you trust more to handle the economy? Trump 52 percent to 45 percent in September. That's pretty much unchanged from August.

So, what level of concern are you hearing from the Harris campaign about that?

JASMINE WRIGHT, NOTUS 2024 REPORTER: I mean, I think those numbers are why you continue to hear the Harris campaign and Harris herself call herself the underdog. They're really trying to change those.

It's interesting because for the last two weeks or so, I was asking the campaign whether or not we would hear the vice president roll out more policy, and it was really unclear because I think they were deciding whether or not it was better for them, for her to be in businesses in Pennsylvania and Georgia, versus her to be on that big policy stage. But then they rolled out that economy speech that really tied her personality and her person to how she would be as president on the economy and then we, of course, saw her on the border on over the weekend as they try to bridge that gap between the numbers that they see between her and Trump on the economy and immigration.

And it's actually something that they feel confident that they can at least minimize going into November, if not a kind of sew up all the way, but that is why we're seeing her on those policy stages, because they're trying to get to those Americans who don't necessarily trust her on the economy, trying to get to those Americans who don't necessarily believe that she would be as tough on the border as they would want her to be.

RAJU: Yeah. Speaking of the border, I said you were just down in El Paso. You look at the numbers on the border also, she is still trailing Trump on the issue of immigration. Perhaps one reason why she went down to the border on Friday night and she has changed her messaging really, from 2020 when she ran for president. This is from a 2019 debate.

And look what she said on Friday compared to what she said back then.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MODERATOR: If you'd be so kind, raise your hand if you think it should be a civil offense rather than a crime to cross the border without documentation.

Can we keep the hands up so we can see them? HARRIS: I will do more to secure our border, to reduce illegal border

crossings.

If someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Astead, what do you make of that? That is quite a turnaround in messaging. And what were you hearing on the ground?

ASTEAD HERNDON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Listen, it's a 180. And I think it's emblematic of a Democratic Party that's really come to shift on this issue. If we think back to 2019, Democrats were racing against each other to kind of out-progressive one another.

If you even looking back at that stage, it's interesting that Biden is the one going back and forth because he really benefited from standing aside from a lot of the progressive litmus tests that were going on at the time. Harris was doing the opposite. She was trying to win those voters over, and that was I think, the aberration from her career.

The Harris we hear on Friday sounds a lot like the attorney general. One sounds a lot like the law enforcement official who was with border agents even coming up before she came to Washington. She turned from that when she was running for president, and the political incentive. But I think it's added a burden right now for her to explain who she is and what she believes to voters.

Now the campaign is trying to make a pitch that their values haven't changed. They can roll out individual policy, but I think they're still coming up against a public that does not have a firm sense of her ideology. Joe Biden was a familiar figure to the people, so much so that his policy was really going in the opposite direction.

[08:10:02]

He was laying out a progressive agenda to actually combat the idea that he wouldn't be someone who wouldn't change things going forward.

I think Harris has a kind of opposite problem where people perceive her as progressive, maybe because of how she was introduced in 2019. And so the burden is coming from the center and the opposite side. And I think when we're talking about defining her, that is where we're really talking about is for some people, the question is not if she progressive enough, but is she too progressive?

PAGE: And, you know, it's not just on the issue of the border in which she made a 180 or a major shift from her positions in the 2019 primary campaign. And it's a problem for her, and I think she has failed to so far, effectively address why the shift and also where she stands now on things like the border and the green new deal and other issues.

RAJU: And speaking of how she wants to define herself in the eyes of voters, of course, jumping into this race rate, this race late really has changed, of course, the dynamics of everything. What's been so remarkable is look at the TV ads. And of course, there's been so much money, hundreds of millions of dollars spent on air.

Our colleague David Wright broke down the numbers here about Democrats versus Republicans and how they are spending the ads. Trump allies versus Harris allies, 238 million because Democrats are spending a little bit more.

But positive ads, 38 percent of that have been positive ads from the Democratic side on the Republican side. Virtually none have been positive ads for Trump, only $75,000 of $212 million have been positive. Virtually all of them have been negative.

You know, Dan Balz, negative campaigning does work, though. Is this a strategic mistake in any way for the Harris campaign to not be going more negative against Trump, at least on the airwaves?

BALZ: Well, I mean, she's playing a lot of defense because they're playing offense and they have as we've been saying, they're trying to paint her as a dangerous liberal. And everything Trump says comes out of his mouth on that focuses in that direction. Both in what she did in going to the border this week and in the economic speech was designed, as we've said, to ameliorate that problem.

I mean, when she did her economic speech she described herself as a capitalist, as a free market person --

WRIGHT: Pragmatic.

BALZ: -- as a person who's pragmatic and a person who is not tied to any particular ideology.

That is a totally different portrait than the Trump campaign is doing. And they know in the Harris campaign that these ads can have an impact and that she has to do something to try to negate the negative impact of those ads.

RAJU: Yeah, it's so interesting. We'll see when we ultimately assess how this race turns out, whether that was the right move for her.

You look at the ads in your battleground states, you'll see those ads from Harris, a lot of them are very positive. The ads from Trump, not so much. But we'll see which one is a more effective strategy.

All right. Coming up, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy joins me live in studio for an exclusive Sunday morning interview.

But first, "Saturday Night Live" is back, and the cast certainly has a lot of material to work with.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This election is about moving forward. You see, Donald Trump is stuck in the past. But it's like I say to my husband, Doug, when he leaves his phone at the Chili's, we are not going back. (END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:17:39]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: What's it like playing Tim Walz?

REP. TOM EMMER (R-MN), MAJORITY WHIP: Well, you got to learn how to lie with a straight face.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: And that was House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, who's been standing in for fellow Minnesotan Tim Walz in debate prep with J.D. Vance. The head to head matchup is now just two days away.

Now, sources tell CNN Vance is reviewing footage of Walz's previous speeches in studying his past policies.

Meanwhile, Walz is spending the weekend in Michigan, hunkered down in so-called debate camp with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg playing the role of Vance in mock debates. And according to new reporting from my colleague Isaac Dovere, Walz has been telling people he's nervous to face off against Vance.

Now, while VP debates are not known for having much of an impact on the ultimate outcome of presidential races, they can certainly bring some memorable moments.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. PAUL RYAN (R-WI): Jack Kennedy lowered tax rates, increased growth. Ronald Reagan --

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Now you're Jack Kennedy.

FORMER GOV. SARAH PALIN (R), ALASKA: Nice to meet you. Hey, can I call you Joe?

MIKE PENCE, FORMER U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: I think he is a great insult to the men and women who serve in law enforcement.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: And be sure to tune in Tuesday to that special event.

Susan, you moderated that '22 to the fly moment where it was sitting right on Vice President Pence's head. He didn't realize it. No one really realized it.

But just to remind viewers of just what the debate is to -- what to expect here at the debate on the VP rules, there will be no audience. Mics will be muted, which mics be unmuted? Which is different than the presidential debates.

CBS News is hosting the debate, can turn off those candidate microphones. But, Susan, when you look back at that 2020 debate, did it move the needle then? And do we expect this could move the needle now?

PAGE: The fact that what we remember most about that debate was that the fly got through security and landed on his head, and then, by the way, stayed there. It seemed like he stayed there. He or she, I guess, I don't know --

RAJU: And no one really knew until social media picked it up.

PAGE: Yeah, I think -- I think people watching on TV picked it up right away.

The fact that that's what we remember from the last debate tells you how crucial these debates are. You know, it's -- they're -- they we should keep our expectations low.

But there are a couple of reasons to think that this debate on Tuesday is going to be worth watching. One is what we heard Tom Emmer say, lie with a straight face, that indicates that J.D. Vance is coming into this as the attack dog role.

And Governor Walz has very little experience, I think, facing off in this kind of forum against the kind of assault that that we think Vance will pursue.

And, you know, in the race that is as close as this one, if it sways just a few thousand votes in Pennsylvania or another one of the very important swing states, that could make a difference, or one more thing, if it entices Donald Trump to think he wants to do another debate, then that could be really significant.

RAJU: Yeah, leaving the last word to Vance and Walz is really different than any past vice presidential debate. Typically, it's in the middle, tucked in into the middle of the presidential debates.

But you look at how voters view Walz versus Vance right now. Walz has seen his favorability creep up just a little bit, really within the margin of error, really not a whole lot. Still a lot of voters just simply don't know either of the two candidates. That's the 33 percent. If 25 percent say that they're not familiar with Walz as of now.

The view of J.D. Vance, there has been an unfavorability that has increased since he has jumped into the national stage here as the VP candidate, about 48 percent to 57 percent now view him unfavorably.

Which ticket do you think has more to gain or lose on Tuesday?

HERNDON: I would say that the Democrats have more to gain because, you know, the unrealized, undefined nature of both of their candidates is also a ceiling. It's also a possibility, if Walz is able to actualize on the interest that is there for Democrats in the same way that is true for Harris. I think they grow a vote, share the way they have to do before November.

I mean, J.D. Vance's introduction to this race has not been a particularly pleasant one, right? Picking fights with Jennifer Aniston and Taylor Swift is not exactly how I would go about introducing myself to America, but he's obviously made a kind of a specific play, not just, I think to be the attack dog for Donald Trump, but to be a kind of cultural warrior for him, too.

J.D. Vance is a reflection of a MAGA ecosystem, that is not just, you know, a reflection of Donald Trump's policies, but the ethos of him. And I think that's what also Vance represents. I think we're going to see kind of two different versions of a masculinity fight happening on that stage on Tuesday.

Walz has presented himself as such a cheerful warrior for Harris, and I think someone who represents a pivot from what Democrats have typically done to defend issues that he has done so as governor and on the ticket. And Vance is going to try to exploit that.

I think we're going to see kind of two different versions of what kind of male politicians are right now. And I think that's going to be an interesting kind of cultural clash, even more so than the policy stuff we're going to see on stage.

RAJU: That's so interesting to put a to point that out. And yes, there will be, of course, those attacks, those policy attacks, maybe personal attacks as well. Just we looked at some of the -- what we've been hearing on the campaign trail about what -- how Democrats are likely to go after Vance, how Walz will likely go after Vance here.

Of course, his false claims, unsubstantiated claims about Haitian migrants in Ohio, eating pets. I'm sure we'll hear about that. Vance has not walked away from that comment. His childless cat lady's comments as Astead was just alluding to his past criticism of Trump. Also, something that could be rife for something that perhaps Walz will bring up.

And then what will Walz -- what will Vance go after Walz his past remarks about his military service? Republicans have been all over things that he said that didn't quite line up with the record comments about his family's fertility treatment. And, of course, some of his things he's done as the governor of Minnesota.

So you talk to the Harris campaign. How are they -- how is Walz preparing for that line of attack?

WRIGHT: Well, you heard him this weekend. He's at debate camp. I think that this is particularly on his military record. This is something that he prepped the Harris campaign for. Now, whether or not they responded to it as well as they could have after he was announced as the running mate is one thing, but they knew that those attacks were coming.

Sources told me at the time, this is something that he's faced regularly as he's run for office, but I think the attacks, both on his policy, is something that, as Susan pointed out, he is not ready for, particularly because one source told "NOTUS" that Vance was preparing to cut down Walz's fake moderate branding to expose him as a leftist. That's probably something that Walz has never faced in Minnesota, and it's going to come really fiercely from J.D. Vance, because we know that he likes to operate in that zone.

I think one thing about Vance prep is that although they're attacking, they're prepping attack lines on trying to expose him as a leftist Walz, his military record. What's unclear is whether or not he's trying to come off as more relatable, particularly when you look at those unfavorables because I think what we've seen in these recent debates is not just policy is important, but also personality is important, trying to get more people to understand who Vance is as a person. And it's unclear whether or not they're focused on that. But that is something that the Walz campaign is focused on being kind of a folksy, relatable person.

RAJU: Dan, which candidate, which VP candidate is -- are they helping or hurting their ticket? Is Walz helping Harris? Is she is he making not much of a difference? Is he is he hurting her in some ways?

[08:25:02]

What about Vance for Trump?

BALZ: Well, I mean, you look at those numbers and you would say that Vance is probably hurting Trump just because of his unpopularity. I mean, I think we know from history that VP candidates, in the end, don't make that much difference on the race. I think, you know, there's a lot of focus on what Vance will do to try to attack Walz and what Walz will try to do to attack Vance.

But they're there as surrogates for the main candidates. And I think the bigger task is not simply scoring points on one another, but scoring points on the opposite nominee. And those are -- those are the key things in a vice presidential debate. Again, as Susan said, we remember almost nothing from these debates but --

RAJU: Other than Susan was a fabulous moderator.

(LAUGHTER)

BALZ: Hear, hear.

But the degree to which they can outline the attack against the other side, they may be more successful.

HERNDON: It feels like the real linchpin here might just be not an electoral impact that this could have, but the impact of the kind of normal versus weird debate they've been having between each other. I think it's to the point about Vance landing those attacks. He also needs to introduce himself as something more than the comments he's become associated with.

And I think what the kind of significance of this might be, a kind of lasting brand of who gets more of an edge of relating to people as the more normal candidate. WRIGHT: Becoming personable.

And I think also in the last three weeks, we've heard a lot from Vance of all the kind of conspiracies that he's been stoking -- he's been stoking up, but we haven't really heard from Governor Walz. And so, this will be a time for him to define himself to the public.

RAJU: And that is really a great point because he has not been across the airwaves. Vance has, sometimes he has gone a little further than Trump on some issues. We'll see how they reintroduce themselves to the American public.

And, of course, watch Tuesday night, the special event, the vice presidential debate simulcast hosted by CBS -- CBS News but live here, 9:00 p.m. Eastern on CNN.

Coming up, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who still has plenty to say, will join me live one year after his ouster, right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:31:09]

MANU RAJU, CNN HOST: It's hard to believe, but this week marks one year since Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker of the House, throwing the chamber into disarray, ultimately leading to the ascension of Mike Johnson, to leave the chamber.

Since then he's out of sight (ph) but is still very much involved in Republican politics. And today, he's back with me now to discuss the latest on the presidential race and Republican news.

Mr. Speaker, thank you for being here.

KEVIN MCCARTHY, FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: We both have an anniversary. Mine's a little sad, yours is this show.

RAJU: Yes. One year of the show.

MCCARTHY: Congratulations.

RAJU: Thank you.

MCCARTHY: You've done a great job.

RAJU: It means a lot. Thank you so much.

MCCARTHY: You'd always frustrate me with questions, but I'll tell you what. I admired you because you probably the hardest working reporter in the House and you do your research.

RAJU: Well, I appreciate that.

MCCARTHY: You won me over.

RAJU: Well, it's nice of you to say it. Thank you so much.

I want to ask you about just -- about the presidential race --

MCCARTHY: Yes.

RAJU: -- first and Trump on the campaign trail yesterday. I want you to weigh in about this line of attack against Kamala Harris and your view of it. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Joe Biden became mentally- impaired. Kamala was born that way. She was born that way.

And if you think about it only a mentally-disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country. Anybody would know this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: So he called her a mentally-disabled person and questions her intelligence.

Effective line of attack? Or should he focus on something else.

MCCARTHY: What you're doing is you're using one little clip there and you don't put what was said before and what was said after.

RAJU: So he did say -- called her mentally disable.

MCCARTHY: That's 100 percent true. But why is he? what was he talking about? It had just come out that under this Biden/Harris and remember the responsibility that Harris had for the border?

They have allowed more than 425,000 illegal aliens who are convicted of a crime. More than 13,000 who are convicted of homicide, murders; more than 15,000 sexual assault. Are your children safer because of this?

So what he's trying to make the point here is his frustration that here they are --

(CROSSTALKING)

RAJU: He's attacking her intelligence. He's been doing that consistently throughout.

MCCARTHY: Well, I would question anybody's intelligence that would allow 13,000 murderers into our country and don't know where they are.

(CROSSTALKING)

MCCARTHY: 15,000 sexual -- convicted of sexual assault in our country. Look, I question this administration's idea to allow this border the way it is. But you know what? No one in America is safe. There is no city that's not a border community now.

RAJU: So you're ok if he goes out and starts attacking her intelligence.

(CROSSTALKING)

MCCARTHY: No, what he's questioning here is --

RAJU: Mentally sick, that's what he called her.

MCCARTHY: Well, do you think anybody would be mentally-stable that would allow 13,000 murders into your own country, or 15,000 --

RAJU: She didn't allow 13, --

MCCARTHY: No. Let's be honest about this.

RAJU: So you're calling her -- you're ok with him saying mentally-ill. That's the bottom line.

MCCARTHY: No, the bottom line is the policy that allowed 13,000 murderers in the country and 15,000 convicted of sexual assault. That is the question. And I think every American would sit back and say, yes, I'm going to say something I normally don't say because you just made my children less safe. You just made my community less safe.

And we've seen it time and again in news reports, we have now watched Massachusetts far from the southern border. The governor declared emergency about the southern border.

We've now watched New York City declare that the southern border is one of the greatest crisis. We've watched this across. Every week we hear a new report of some illegal person that came across, convicted of murder, maybe murdering somebody, maybe raping another child?

[08:34:48]

MCCARTHY: Yes. If you are in charge in an administration and you allow that to happen, I'm going to question your mental capacity.

RAJU: So, you know, obviously borders is central to this campaign. One of the things that you've been talking about here is this conspiracy theory that there's no basis in reality.

Haitian migrants in Springfield eating pets. They're not backing away from that at all. Does that kind of argument undercut the central argument he kind of makes of the border to the former president say I was wrong. There's no truth to that.

MCCARTHY: Look, I was saying to lay off of that.

RAJU: That there's no fact and no truth of that.

MCCARTHY: Let me finish my sentence. I appreciate you but look, you asked me a question, let me finish.

RAJU: Sure.

MCCARTHY: These numbers have come from the Harris administration. 425,000 people have come here illegally that have been convicted of crime.

RAJU: That's not what the Haitian migrants --

MCCARTHY: I know what you're talking about. But I'm also making a point here. Because you want to pick one specific issue.

You want to know why people are upset. You want to know why people are frustrated. You want to know why people say things they normally wouldn't say because it's unheard of that no administration have ever done that to our own nation.

Put us in such jeopardy. Let known what they have done to the economy. Let known what they had done around the world making us unsafe where we have five embassies have evacuated.

What they have done to create new 13 gold star families, because they wouldn't listen to the ministers in Afghanistan. We've not watched a war in different parts of the --

RAJU: But you're not responding to this Haitian migrant -- the reason why, you know, it's getting into some of the language, in some of your former colleagues. Look at Clay Higgins (ph) who was a former member -- current member of the House Republican Conference said about this thing that's not true. There's no basis to back this up.

He called the Haitians wild because they're eating pets. The nastiest country in the western hemisphere. He goes on to call these people thugs. Your reaction to that.

MCCARTHY: Look, I'd never say he took it down for that standpoint. I would stick to the issues. If you stick to the issues, Republicans have a lot of places to go. But more importantly America would be a safer place.

RAJU: I want to talk about your -- the last year. You, of course, you're the former Speaker of the House.

MCCARTHY: Yes.

(CROSSTALKING)

MCCARTHY: I was very proud of what we've done.

RAJU: And eight members of your conference voted to oust you.

MCCARTHY: And all the Democrats.

RAJU: All the Democrats. That was my next thing I was going to point out. But this is how the Republicans who voted to oust you -- how they did in their primaries.

There were three who are not coming back, two decided to either resign or not seek reelection. Bob Good lost barely. Trump came out against (INAUDIBLE) as well.

But the rest of them did win including your nemesis, who led the charge to oust you. Matt Gaetz, he won by 45 percent in their primary, you helped his primary opponent. Did your efforts fall short?

MCCARTHY: No. I think from all perspectives, three are not coming back. I mean, the people get to make the final decision. I just think when it comes to Matt Gaetz, I just hope these young women get the justice they deserve. That's the only thing.

I will always defend girls, especially when they're under age and you've watched this come out recently. I think at the end of the day, you and I both know why he did what he did, trying to protect himself about paying an underage girl. And now you look at the depositions that have recently come out. I think that's all vindicated.

RAJU: Well, he's being investigated by the House Ethics Committee right now. DOJ is not --

(CROSSTALKING)

MCCARTHY: That was what it was all about.

(CROSSTALKING)

RAJU: Yes. Sexual misconduct.

MCCARTHY: It started long -- long before I ever took the position as Speaker, him trying to influence me to stop it. And I'm not going to fall to any pressure like that and I'm going to allow it to go forward.

RAJU: So he does -- this investigation is going on. He did send a letter to the evidence committee this week denying what you just charged him in doing.

He said that about whether he had engaged in any sexual activity with anyone under 18. He said the answer to this question is unequivocally no.

He also denied doing -- using any quote, "illicit drugs". I mean, do you have any evidence to back--up your claim? You're saying the opposite.

MCCARTHY: Look. I'm not making any claims? I'm just saying somebody is sitting in jail for 11 years for -- that was with him. They just had depositions that came out days before where a girl who is a junior in high school dropped off by her mother who had partied with drugs and sex. You have Venmo payments from Matt Gaetz to there. You have emails from Matt Gaetz requesting that young girl come back to the next party to the individuals who's sitting in there.

I'll let the courts and ethics decide that. But all the facts there lay out, I think these young women deserve justice.

RAJU: Of course. And he denies that. Just to be clear, he denies all of that.

I do want to ask very, very quickly. Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, if you -- if the Republicans keep the majority, should he -- does he deserve to stay as Speaker.

MCCARTHY: yes. Any speaker that is able to keep a majority deserves to stay as Speaker.

RAJU: And if he loses then who should be Republican leader?

MCCARTHY: Look my -- my rule of thumb, if you are a Speaker and you lose the majority, you're no longer a leader.

[08:39:50]

MCCARTHY: I mean, that's normal. The only people that keep with that are the Democrats. But I'll tell you, there is a better chance for us to win seats this cycle than the last two cycles.

RAJU: All right. We shall say if that prediction goes through.

Mr. Speaker, thank you for coming in and joining me this morning. I appreciate it.

MCCARTHY: Thank you.

RAJU: As always, yes. We'll have you back again.

Coming up, I spoke to two Republicans who want to be the next Senate majority leader and what they told me about how they deal with a President Harris.

And new details coming up, plus one former Democrat, Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema has stayed mum on whether she will endorse Harris.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: It light of Kamala Harris' view on the filibuster, could you support her.

No comment?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[08:40:34]

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RAJU: This scenario is very possible. Republicans take the Senate and Kamala Harris wins the presidency. So what would that mean for Harris' agenda especially if there's one or more Supreme Court vacancies?

I spoke to the two leading candidates for Senate Republican leader. And here's what Senate GOP whip John Thune told me about his plans.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Would you put a national abortion ban on the floor if you're majority leader.

SEN. JOHN THUNE (R-SD): I don't think there's any abortion proposal. They get 60 votes on the floor of the United States.

RAJU: Could you see yourself allowing the Supreme Court nominee for Harris to be confirmed?

THUNE: Well, I mean, obviously we'll cross the bridge when it comes to it but you know, probably depends on who that is and that's the advantage of having a Republican Senate.

RAJU: And you would not change the filibuster.

THUNE: No.

RAJU: On any issue.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Another potential majority leader, Texas Senator John Cornyn also said he didn't think an abortion ban could get 60 votes, and that he would absolutely preserve the filibuster.

But when I asked him if he would allow a confirmation vote on a Harris Supreme Court nominee Senator Cornyn said, quote, "It depends. I think it would also depend on who the president nominates." And that he wouldn't quote "schedule a vote on some wild-eyed radical nominee, which I know she would love to nominate."

My panel is back. I mean, this is significant because this is a scenario that could happen. Republican Senate, maybe Democratic president. We'll see what happens here.

And Supreme Court vacancies -- just look at the ages of the Supreme Court justices right now. Three of them are 70 or older. And there's a lot of rumors about potential retirement as well.

This is obviously much different than the way things used to be where the president would get his nominee confirmed no matter if it's the Senate was controlled by the opposite party.

DAN BALZ, WASHINGTON POST POLITICAL REPORTER: You know, Manu, it's very interesting if Harris wins the presidency and Republicans hold the Senate, she would be the first Democratic president in more than 100 years, who would have a Republican Senate coming into office.

And that has implications not just for the Supreme Court, which is obviously a big ball game, but for all kinds of issues. All of her nominees for cabinet and other judgeships, legislative issues.

I mean we don't know what she would be able to do working with a Republican leader in a Republican Senate.

We don't know what her history is. You would have a better idea than anybody about the degree to which she has relationships across the aisle. But it's not clear that she has any. RAJU: Yes.

BALZ: So I think that we're -- we would be -- she would be in for a very difficult time and would be very quickly moving to executive orders to try to implement the things that she had talked about in the campaign.

RAJU: Yes. No question about it.

And let's just take a look at where things are in that race for the Senate, the competitive Senate race if you look at the 2024 map here.

There's two Republic -- two states in which Democrats have a chance for pickup -- Texas and Florida. And so many states across the board Democrats are struggling to hang on to those seats.

They did get some good news out of Ohio, that is central to the fight for the majority here. There's a "New York Times"/Siena poll out this morning, this weekend saying that Sherrod brown, the incumbent Democratic senator up four points there.

But still, if Brown holds on, Republicans could probably still get the majority because they're going to take back West Virginia and we'll see about Montana. Jon tester is struggling there.

It could be all they needed to pick up is one more.

SUSAN PAGE, U.S.A. TODAY WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: That's right. If West Virginia is gone Democrats cannot lose another seat.

They hold in the Senate and hold the Senate. That's one reason you see them now investing in Texas, which is frankly kind of a longshot.

Florida, maybe a little more realistic. Rick Scott has never won by very much there. Abortion is on the ballot. That could be helpful to Democrats.

But you know, they've got some new problems too. There's some concern among some Democrats about Maryland. Larry Hogan, a pretty -- it's a very blue state, but he's a pretty popular Republican there.

So Democrats have a world of trouble when you look at the U.S. Senate.

RAJU: What are you hearing?

ASTEAD HERNDON, NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: I mean, I think that that's a correct landscape of the -- of the -- of the race. You have Democrats on the defense in the Senate. So much that a lot of people have kind of given it up.

I mean, they've done pretty well down ballot all considering and there are some pretty good feelings about their ability to hold or retain the House or take over the House.

I think the open question becomes, what will happen in the Senate. I think for Harris that shifts what you can do on the agenda front. I think this is part of the reason you see her laying out an agenda

that may not be as robust, as some might expect that I think deals with the realities of a divided government.

And I think this is why we're kind of seeing them project that they will govern from the center, not just because that's where she might be ideologically, but that it reflects the likelihood of where the congressional --

(CROSSTALKING)

[08:49:48]

JASMINE WRIGHT, NOTUS: I also think that that is a reason why you see all these Republicans coming out for the vice president because they're relying on her to face a bipartisan government --

RAJU: Yes.

WRIGHT: -- because it limits what she can do instead of being able to go so far left. She has to stay kind of in the middle.

RAJU: Yes, checks and balances, always an argument. Sometimes effective during a campaign.

All right. And a note on a claim you just heard from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy about undocumented migrants in the U.S. have been convicted of crimes.

Donald Trump made a similar false claim Friday and Saturday, claiming that statistics are specifically about criminal offenders who entered the U.S. during the Biden/Harris administration.

But in reality, the figures about offenders who entered the U.S. over multiple decades including during the Trump administration. Some of those individuals are still serving jail in prison sentences for their crimes.

All right. Coming up, an incredible milestone. How Jimmy Carter is celebrating his 100th birthday this week, and his plans for this year's election. That's next.

[08:50:44]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

RAJU: On Tuesday, Jimmy Carter will reach a remarkable milestone -- the first ever former president to celebrate his 100th birthday. His neighbors in the small town of Plains, Georgia are planning to celebrate with a military flyover, a naturalization ceremony for 100 new citizens, and a concert in his honor.

His grandson says that even as Carter remains in hospice care, he is closely tracking this year's presidential election and quote, can't wait to cast a ballot for Vice President Harris.

So from all of us here at INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY, we wish the former President Carter a very happy and historic 100th birthday.

And that's it for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. You can follow me on X @mkraju. Follow the show @INSIDEPOLITICS. If you ever miss an episode, catch up wherever you get your podcast, just search for INSIDE POLITICS.

Up next, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER AND DANA BASH". Jake's guests include White House national security spokesman John Kirby, Senator Lindsey Graham, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker.

Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. And we'll see you next time.

[08:56:22]

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