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White House: Iranian Missile Strike On Israel Could Be Imminent; Sr. White House Official: Iranian Attack On Israel "Will Carry Severe Consequences For Iran"; Tonight: Walz, Vance Square Off In V.P. Debate; Trump Calls Walz "A Maron" While Advisers Say He's A Good Debater; WH: Iran Preparing Ballistic Missile Attack Against Israel; U.S. Embassy Directs Personnel And Families "To Shelter In Place Until Further Notice". Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 01, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Welcome to Inside Politics. I'm Dana Bash, and we start with breaking news. The White House believes Iran is on the verge of launching a missile attack on Israel. The Israeli military says, it hasn't identified any aerial threat, at least as of yet. But the American Embassy is warning its personnel to shelter in place until further notice.

My colleagues are across the globe, reporting on all of the breaking developments. But I want to start in Washington, at the White House. CNN's Arlette Saenz is there. Arlette, what are you hearing from your sources?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Dana, very stark warning coming from the White House today. As a senior White House official tells us, the U.S. believes Iran is planning an imminent ballistic missile attack against Israel. In this statement, the senior White House official said that the U.S. is working with Israel to shore up its defenses.

A U.S. official telling us that the U.S. would be prepared to help Israel intercept anything that Iran launches their way, as there is concern about what this could mean for the tension and the conflict in the region at large. This, of course, could ratchet up the fears about an all-out war emerging in the region.

Now, at the same time, the U.S. is also -- white -- senior White House official in this statement saying that, a direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran. So, we will see exactly what this defense in response could be if Iran does move forward with this attack.

Now, our colleague Jeremy Diamond is reporting that Israel has assessed that Iran is likely to attack three Israeli bases, as well as an intelligence base just north of Tel Aviv. A source familiar with the discussion said that the U.S. warned Israel of the potential for this attack by Iran a bit earlier today and said that it could come in the next 12 hours.

It comes at a moment of heightened tension, specifically between Israel and Iranian backed Hezbollah. You have seen and heard from U.S. officials expressing concern in recent days that Iran could potentially be planning some type of attack against Israel.

And at the same time, the U.S. has made clear that any -- if Iran or any of its partners or proxies tries to use this moment of high tension to target any American personnel or American interests that the U.S. would be prepared to respond to defend their people.

The Pentagon has talked about how they have significant capabilities in the region, talking about how they have a carrier strike group there as well. As the Pentagon has made moves to try and reinforce some of the true presence in the region as well. But it does come at a very complicated time. As you have seen, President Biden really trying to push for some type of diplomatic solution to ease these tensions that have been taking place, but so far, that has gained no traction.

So, the White House is watching the situation very closely, saying that they are ready to stand and support Israel to defend any type of attack, while also trying to balance the concerns that are out there about what this could mean for a potential wider war in the region as things move forward.

BASH: Arlette, thank you so much for that reporting. I appreciate it. I want to now go to CNN military analyst and retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling. General Hertling, thank you so much for being here.

What is your sense of things as of right now, with the U.S. putting these warnings out, making it public when they believe Iran is going to do and specifically with what they're saying to U.S. personnel. Is this reminiscent of April 13, when Iran felt that they needed to retaliate?

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MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yeah. To a degree it is, Dana, it is deterrence by disclosure. They're letting people know that we know what Iran is about to do. There are indicators, there are intelligence indicators that launch sites are getting ready, that missiles are being ready. So, this could be the case, but this is going to be a more complex operation, I believe.

If Iran has said they're going to strike two air bases in an intelligence facility, those are mostly in northern Iraq. The kind of bases that -- I'm sorry, Northern Israel, the kind of bases that Israel has used to attack Hezbollah. Those are also defended by both David Sling and the arrow air defense system, not the Iron Dome. Iron Dome is not going to be able to do anything against these kind of ballistic missiles.

But the thing is, the warning is short. When you launch a ballistic missile the thousand miles between Iran to Israel, it takes about 12 minutes to get there. And they can only be knocked down by air defense system above the Iron Dome. So, the high-altitude kinds of things. They move very fast. Those missiles that Iran might launch move as fast as 15 mach.

So, you're talking about a quick pull, a quick overflight, over probably Iraq, an area that the U.S. systems that are on ships can't reach. So, you're talking about complete dependence on the Israeli air defense. And you see the targets, the potential targets of air bases and intelligence facilities will have air defenders around them, because those are very valuable point targets to the Israelis.

BASH: Just real quick before I let you go. You said that this is going to have to happen with Israeli air defense because the last time we saw this, it was, you know, the U.S. and other allies from Europe coming in and helping to eliminate the incoming missiles. That's not the case you believe this time?

HERTLING: Yeah. Well, it depends. If these are ballistic missiles, they have to be taken down by air defense systems. There it's very difficult to take -- to destroy a ballistic missile with a fighter jet. It can be done, but it's much more difficult. The attack that occurred in April combined ballistic missiles, cruise missiles that move very slowly, as well as drones that move very slowly.

So, those are the kind of air-to-air targets that you can hit with help from western jets from the United States and other countries. But when we're talking about ballistic missiles, it's more difficult to hit those with jets, so they have to be taken down by air defense systems. And more than likely, those missiles are going to be traveling over the territory of Iraq, and there's not a whole lot of air defense systems from the United States or western countries there.

BASH: All right. General Hertling, thank you so much for that. Please stand by because if anything develops, we will come right to you. Thanks for putting that into context. And now we're going to turn back to the United States and the 2024 race, because Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are going to stand podium to podium on this stage in the first and only vice-presidential debate.

Raising the stakes, as of now it is the last showdown between the two campaigns before Election Day, which is exactly five weeks from today, hard to believe. The role of a V.P. pick is usually do no harm, and that is something Tim Walz seems to be taking to heart.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Governor, what do you want voters to learn about you tomorrow?

GOV. TIM WALZ (D-MN), 2024 VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Just doing our best for folks.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: And while the Trump campaign tries to raise expectations for J.D. Vance's opponent, Donald Trump, decided to lower them.

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DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You'll see it tomorrow with J.D., it will be stacked. He's going up against a moron, a total moron. How she picked him is unbelievable. And I think it's a big factor. There's something wrong with that guy. He's sick.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: The former president may not want to get back on the debate stage himself, but says he plans to do a quote, personal play by play of the V.P. debate tonight. I'm joined now by three terrific reporters here in New York, CNN's David Chalian, CNN's Sara Sidner, and Lisa Lerer of The New York Times. Hello. Happy V.P. debate day.

David Chalian, set the sort of stakes for us and the table of what we should expect tonight?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, first just listening to you say that former President Trump is going to be live truthing the debate. Seems like somebody is eager to be on the debate stage again, and like eager to be a debate player.

BASH: Well, you know, what, we have a place for him. If he wants to know.

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CHALIAN: That is true. So -- but I think it is important that this is sort of the last -- currently on the calendar, 10-poll event that is going to drive a lot of viewership that we know of in the next five weeks, will sort of grinding it out every day in the battleground states.

But it's like, well, what are we going to learn here? Is this going to be a Walz versus Vance debate? Or is this more going to be a Trump versus Harris debate? I think how the running mates choose to play that role and whether on which debate they want to have, will dictate sort of the tone and tenor of the night.

BASH: Lisa?

LISA LERER, NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, THE NEW YORK TIMES: I think that's right. I mean, traditionally, V.P. candidates get up there and have to defend the positions of the principal. And they usually defer on their own stances and say, you know, I would adopt the positions of whatever administration, you know, should we win.

That's a little bit more complicated because these are two principals who have changed their presidential candidates, who have changed their positions on a number of issues over time, sometimes with Donald Trump change their positions within a week or a day or an hour.

So, you know, I'm really watching to see how they defend the positions that their presidential candidates have staked out, and how much they sort of dive into what they -- what they believe. We've seen already Vance come out and say that Trump told him something. And then Trump coming out a day later and saying, actually, I didn't tell him that at all. So, I think he will -- he will certainly walk a careful line in speaking for a former president.

BASH: And I believe you're talking about the abortion question, which you've written a whole book about the politics of that, which I encourage people to go get. But I want to play for you, Sara, what Lisa was referring to, some of what J.D. Vance has said, and then had to redirect, if you will, on the issue of abortion.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Would he veto it?

SEN. J.D. VANCE (R-OH), 2024 VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think it'd be very clear he would not support it. I mean, he said that explicitly.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: But would he veto it?

VANCE: Yeah. I mean, if you're not supporting it as the president United States, you fundamentally have veto.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So, he will veto a federal abortion ban?

VANCE: I think he would. I think that I have learned my lesson on speaking for the president before he and I have actually talked about an issue.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Because Sara, in between those two interviews, President Trump was on the debate stage saying, well, I don't know where he got that.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: Right. So, I think what stood out to me there is, he says, well, I should have spoken to the president about this and not you've spoken in a turn. You haven't spoken to the president about abortion. You haven't spoken to the president about one of the biggest issues of this campaign that smacks of -- well, I won't say it. I'm just saying it just seems a little odd to hear that response.

And it is one of the biggest issues, although not the biggest issue. We know what the biggest issues are. It is plain to see the economy, immigration. I feel like when you're watching this debate, and I'm actually really looking forward to it, because you're getting to know people that mostly are known in their states, not necessarily on the country stage.

And for me, I think watching this debate will only -- it could only hurt the candidate. In other words, whatever they say, if there is a big stumble or something that goes viral, which it often does, they can only -- almost to me, hurt their candidate instead of helping them.

CHALIAN: One other issue that I be curious to see comes up tonight that does rate high, especially among high-risk voters, is democracy and protecting democracy, and it's just an odd thing. The last vice president to serve with Donald Trump is not supporting him this time around. And so, how Vance should that come up?

Navigates that we've heard him be asked the question how he would have handled January 6 and would he be different than Pence? But because that is so seared in America's mind of the position that Trump put Pence in on that day, having the next potential Trump vice president on the stage to sort of deal with that, I think, would be a fascinating moment. And how Walz plays with that.

BASH: All right. And we also -- this is coming on a night where there is a lot of news happening in the world that could impact what they talk about. More on that, major breaking news unfolding this hour. And it is Iran preparing to retaliate against Israel with a ballistic missile strike. That is according to U.S. officials. CNN is monitoring the situation on the ground. And we are going to go live to Tel Aviv after a short break.

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BASH: Breaking news out of the Middle East. Israel is bracing for an imminent missile strike from Iran, an attack could come. We are told at any moment. Retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling is back with me.

General Hertling, I think it's important to sort of, as we're in this sort of suspended animation right now. Give our viewers some context and reminders that on October 8, the day after the deadly attack by Hamas inside Israel, in the north of Israel, Hezbollah started to rain down with missiles and other ammunition against Israel.

To the point where there are thousands of people who -- if Israelis who used to live in the north, in Israel, who had to be displaced, and are kind of refugees in their own country. And that is sort of the backdrop of what we are seeing and the escalation that we have seen with Israel and Hezbollah to and then, of course, Iran right now.

HERTLING: Yeah. There seems to be a focus of attention on what Israel has done in Lebanon. Dana, you're exactly right. But I think it's interesting to remind people that there has been a continuous rain of rockets, missiles and drones coming out of Lebanon since, as you said, October the 8th.

[12:20:00]

Indicators that there wasn't a whole lot of coordination between Hamas in the 7 October attack with Hezbollah in the north. But boy, they certainly chimed in quickly thereafter. You know, I've seen numbers. The Israeli defense force says that there have been over 8000 rockets and missiles and drones fired from Lebanon into Israeli territory, which has caused, as you know, about 80,000 Israeli citizens to move out of the northern part of Israel. So, that has been ongoing. And that the most recent strike, starting with the beavers and the walkie talkies and the extensive attacks by Israeli Air Force against Southern Lebanon and even into Beirut, has been an attempt to disrupt that Hezbollah attack.

Yesterday, the Israeli defense forces announced the fact that they have intelligence that shows the details of a planned attack from Hezbollah that would mirror what Hamas did on October the 7th. Going into northern Israel from underground terror tunnels, attempting to disrupt kibbutz, go against Israeli citizens. So, some of this has been certainly an active front, a second front for Israel.

And now we're talking about the potential for Iran to continue to support that with ballistic missiles, which neither Hamas or Hezbollah has, but certainly it can be much better coordinated than what we saw in the April attack.

And what I'm watching very closely is there have been multiple attacks by Hezbollah today on Israeli territory. Some hit an Arab region within Israel, and as I understand, it killed a couple of Arab citizens that live in Israel.

But if you get a good coordination between rockets, which can be taken -- can be destroyed by the Iron Dome, along with ballistic missiles and drones. And if they're coordinated in the right way, it could certainly overwhelm Israelis air defense and even the fighter jets that are working in the area.

BASH: Well, thank you so much for putting all of this in such important and proper context. General Hertling, again don't go too far. We're going to take a quick break as we monitor what is happening in the skies over Israel. Stay with us.

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BASH: You're looking at live pictures of Tel Aviv as Israel braces for a missile attack from Iran. The White House believes it could come any minute now. My panel is here to discuss this, and obviously, we are looking and waiting and watching, and in touch with all of our resources and our colleagues who are on the ground in Israel.

But Sara Sidner, you worked for CNN. You covered this region for several years based in the Mideast. Now you're here, and because we're five weeks out from the election, you have the perspective of both. And we were talking during the break about how this is a moment where things happening in the world have a direct effect on what could happen here in November.

SIDNER: 100 percent, it will be used, particularly by Donald Trump, who has already been using this saying, you know, we are in this position because of the administration. I would have done, taken care of this. This wouldn't have happened, as we talked about. You know, he's been saying that all along, and for it to really turn into something a huge conflagration. He will directly put that onto the Biden administration, no matter what the circumstances are that created it.

And for the Biden administration, they have been very clear in trying to calm this down, right? And saying, hey, let's find a ceasefire. Now they're trying to work for ceasefire -- in two different places, right?

BASH: Right.

SIDNER: It started with Israel and Hamas, and now it's Israel and Hezbollah. And if Iran now attacks, the big question is, will it draw the U.S. in? And if it draws the U.S. in, as we are headed into an election, it is going to be the hugest talking point of all.

BASH: Yeah. And we're already seeing Donald Trump putting out a statement, trying to suggest that this is all Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's fault.

CHALIAN: Which is a theme that Donald Trump has been running on this entire year that the world is on fire. Nobody is really manning the ship of state here, you know, the empty sort of language and critique aside. I do think this is a leadership test, right? I mean this, you do have a sitting vice president and a former president running against each other. These are people that have lived and experienced the Situation Room and understanding getting information about this up.

How each Trump and Harris sort of navigate around this will be on display for voters to get a sense of their comfort level. We know foreign policy is way down at the bottom of the list for voters. This is not going to be something that drives the outcome of this election, but it is with 35 days to go, a new kind of leadership test that gets put into the mess.

BASH: I want to -- I want to quickly go back to retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling. And General Hertling, we talked a little bit about this at the beginning of the show. But I want to kind of re-up our discussion about the distance and the time if Iran does strike. And of course, Iran is involved in this right now because Iran is a major supporter of financially.