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Biden Leaves Door Open To Israel Striking Iran's Oil Reserves; Biden Travels To Florida, Georgia To Survey Storm Damage; Latest Crises Could Reshape Presidential Race; CNN Poll: Trump Leads Harris By 7 Points On Foreign Policy; Trump Scrapped Deal Negotiated By Obama To Stop Iran's Nuclear Program; Today: Liz Cheney To Campaign With Harris In Wisconsin; New Wisconsin Poll: Independents Favoring Kamala Harris; Senator Tester: My Vote Is "Between Me And The Ballot Box. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 03, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

MANU RAJU, CNN ANCHOR, INSIDE POLITICS: Today on Inside Politics, commander-in-chief test. A strike, a war and a natural disaster threatened to upend the race and remake the election into a campaign about who is more fit to confront crisis.

Plus, a Republican with a headline last name hits the trail for Harris. Liz Cheney tries to sell voters. And why she says the country cannot afford four more years of Donald Trump. As Jack Smith shows the country new evidence alleging how the former president tried to undo democracy.

And Melania Trump silent for most of the campaign, now speaking out on one of the most contentious issues in the race. In a new memoir and video, she takes a position directly at odds with her husband's party. But the government shouldn't tell the women what to do when it comes to abortion.

I'm Manu Raju. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

Up first, the crises colliding with the campaign. A major port strike threatens to unravel economic progress that is critical to the Harris reelection argument. And then, there's this. Rock is again flying in the Middle East, an overnight strike by Israel in Beirut killing at least nine people. It's just the latest episode in a week filled with escalation towards all-out war.

Let's go straight to CNN's Arlette Saenz, who is in Florida waiting for the arrival of President Biden. Arlett, the president spoke at the White House about what's going on in Israel and Iran. What does he have to say?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Manu. There's no question that the White House right now is dealing with this trio of challenges, both at home and abroad. And before President Biden left to travel here to Florida to survey the damage after Hurricane Helene, he was pressed on how he thinks Israel should respond to Iranians barrage of missiles that were fired at Israel just earlier this week. Now, Biden has already said he does not think that Israel should target Iran's nuclear facilities, but he's not ruling out the possibility that they could target oil refineries. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: But you support Israel striking Iran's oil facilities, Sir?

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: We're discussing that. I think -- I think that would be a little anyway.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Certainly, do you allow Israel to retaliate against Iran?

BIDEN: First of all, we don't allow Israel, we advise Israel. And there is nothing going to happen today. We'll talk about that later.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SAENZ: Now, U.S. officials have maintained constant contact with the Israelis as they're trying to advise them to take a proportional response to Iran. At a time when the U.S. is concerned about this conflict widening even further, and this situation in the Middle East, which also has domestic implications here at home is playing out just a few weeks before Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump face off in the election.

And it comes at a time when there's other challenges that the White House is grappling with. There's the port strike, which could have economic repercussions that they'd have to deal with if it continues on for a long time. And then there is the recovery efforts after Hurricane Helene. That is where President Biden's immediate focus is today.

He any minute now, is set to take an aerial tour of the Big Bend area of Florida. That is a region that was hit very hard by Hurricane Helene when it made impact here about a week ago. This is actually the second day in a row that President Biden is touring these devastated areas across the southeast.

The president will be landing here in Perry, where I am, and then travel over to Keaton Beach, where he set to see the devastation in that residential community. Many of the homes there completely destroyed. Now, President Biden is not expected to appear with Governor Ron DeSantis here in the state today.

The White House did not say if the two had spoken, but he has spoken with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp in -- as Biden's preparing to head to that state a bit later this afternoon. The White House right now is really focused on trying to show that they have their arms wrapped around the response efforts in Hurricane Helene, as so many communities across the southeast have been devastated.

RAJU: All right. Arlette Saenz in from Perry, Florida, where the president is set to arrive to survey the damage there on the ground. Thank you for that report. And I want to bring in my excellent panel of reporters, CNN's Jeff Zeleny, Margaret Talev of Axios, and Laura Barron-Lopez of PBS NewsHour. Good to see you all.

So, we are done now with the parts of the campaign that we knew were going to happen. The debates, the conventions, and now we are full on October surprises, if you will. You know, we have -- what happened -- what's happened in Florida, the tension -- escalating tension in the Middle East, strikes among port workers. This is -- could this change what's been a very, very remarkably steady and even raised.

[12:05:00]

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Look, it's hard for me to imagine one single defining event being big enough or consequential enough to change the campaign in ways that others haven't. Look back to July, an assassination attempt, the change to the Democratic nominee. I mean, this race has been filled with sort of one whiplash moment after another.

So, I do not believe that there will be one singular event that will change the trajectory and break open this really stubbornly close race. However, so many pieces now, so many challenges now are tied together. I mean, the hurricane effort is going to show the effectiveness of the government.

So that's why we see President Biden there. Vice President Harris, already visited, is going back to North Carolina. The former president visited. He's going back. You have to wonder if some of these officials are going to be like, OK, you know, send help and money, but stay away.

But at this point, this is going to become a -- yes, it's seven battleground states, but it's even fights for swing counties inside these battleground states, it's so close. So, the campaigns are focused on, A, trying to get their supporters out, and B, those sliver of persuadable voters there.

But for all the talk of the October surprise. I like to think back to a bit of history. The phrase was coined in the 1980 campaign by Ronald Reagan's campaign manager, worrying about Jimmy Carter pulling an October surprise by getting the hostages released that would help him. Of course, that did not happen during the campaign -- every campaign.

Since then, I think it's an overused phrase. I would be surprised if there's one singular surprise that could shake up this surprise --

RAJU: Surprise, if there's another October surprise. But here's a surprise. We have actually a trip down memory lane about some of the things that did occur in the final weeks of the campaign, and what impact did they have. Watch?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, 43rd U.S. PRESIDENT: 24 years ago, I was apprehended in Kennebunkport Maine for DUI.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: The stock markets suffer historic losses.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what.

BARACK OBAMA, 44TH U.S. PRESIDENT: During the darkness of the storm, I think we also saw what's brightest in America.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Can do anything.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Whatever you want.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Grab them by the --

DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They have discovered new emails.

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR, ANDERSON COOPER 360: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who is far more than really a Supreme Court justice, has died.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: I mean, summer -- September, so I think September surprise, but still close enough to the campaign. But it just shows you some of these things, you know, they're out of your control. And you know, RBG dying, that changes the dynamic of the race. Hurricane Sandy in 2012 when Obama was with Chris Christie --

MARGARET TALEV, SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR, AXIOS: The infamous prolong on the tarmac, I was there

RAJU: Mitt Romney was so happy about that.

TALEV: Yeah. I think that montage just goes to show that sometimes the October surprises make a difference and sometimes they don't. One of the big differences, certainly since the Reagan era, is that the October surprise mattered more when most of the voting happened on election day. And now you do have early voting in so many -- in so many states already.

What is it a half a dozen states already are in the process of voting. Ballots are out. People are making their decisions now. And the undecided block is smaller and smaller. It might be 10 percent. It might be 3 percent. So, in so many ways, this election is baked in the cake.

The reason why these unforeseen events or uncontrollable events. I mean, what happens on the world stage or with mother nature, is beyond the control of any sitting president from either party, no matter what they tell you on the stump. But if it is down to a half a percentage point in the key state, sure that could matter, that could be the thing that tips it.

RAJU: And look at just how steady this race has become. Just to get a sense of the polling August and September, how things are just really within the margin of error in almost all of these key races. Only this ABC/Ipsos poll from September was outside of the margin of error view, about five points Harris over Trump. Everything else was pretty much within the margin of error. And even this race is so razor thin, it could really go either way.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST & White House Correspondent, PBS NewsHour: Yeah. To Margaret's point, so many people have already made their decision. And there is only a small segment of the population that has not decided. And I was just in Arizona and Nevada, we just got back last night. And voters there were not necessarily paying attention to the escalation in the Middle East. It's not really foreign policy is typically not what voters ultimately make their decision on.

Now, when it comes to the disasters across the south, the southern states, to me, the impact that it could have on the most is those specific states. So, North Carolina, Georgia, and how voters ultimately vote in those two swing states, and you know --

TALEV: And whether they vote --

BARRON-LOPEZ: Right, whether they vote. Because source in North Carolina was just texting me saying that they're concerned about the ability to even conduct the elections parts of the state that are ravaged the most. So that is something that would impact people's votes potentially in those specific states more than the rest of it.

[12:10:00]

RAJU: And you mentioned foreign policy as this is escalating between Iran and Israel. Question from a CNN poll just out recently. But who you trust more on foreign policy? Trump actually is up 47 to 40. But just 2 percent of likely voters in that poll said that it was their top issue. So how would they deal with the issue of Iran and what is happening? You know, Trump was asked about this just before we saw some of the more late -- more recent strikes about how he would deal with Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Certainly, you could deal with them now, after everything that's happened, if you're really make --

TRUMP: Make a deal with who?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Would you try to make a deal with Iran of some kind, if you were reelected?

TRUMP: Sure, I would do that. You know, I believe in -- I believe in getting, you know, it doesn't -- it doesn't matter. I have a -- I have a great memory, but it's a memory that wants to serve the people. We have to make a deal because the consequences are impossible. We have to make a deal.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Make a deal. He withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. TALEV: So, what the former president wants people to think in the messaging is that the world is in chaos, and that's somehow the sitting president and his vice president's fault. And that when he was the president, you know, the current -- exact current situations weren't going on. The polling suggests that -- actually many Americans do buy that argument, but they are also the Americans largely that already want to support Donald Trump.

So, I think again, where it really matters is in that crossover camp. And for those voters, are they more concerned with that than they are with reproductive rights or the future of the American economy?

ZELENY: But instability is not Vice President Harris's friend here in this. She was hoping for much calmer waters at this point in the Middle East.

RAJU: Yeah. We'll see what happens in a -- how it affects voters in this razor thin race. All right. A sentence that is hard to believe or listen, one point it was. Liz Cheney hits the campaign trail today for a Democrat. That's coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

RAJU: Later today, one of the big name, Republicans, who has endorsed Kamala Harris is joining her on the campaign trail. That's Liz Cheney, who will be out with her in the crucial battleground state of Wisconsin. It's all part of an effort to move undecided voters away from Donald Trump ahead of the election.

CNN's Eva McKend is live in Ripon, Wisconsin. So, Eva, walk us through what you know about this event and the significance about where it's happening.

EVA MCKEND, CNN NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Oh, Manu, we are in Ripon, Wisconsin. This is known as the birthplace of the Republican Party. And it is here where the vice president will make a direct appeal to Republican and independent voters. And the message will be quite clear.

She will argue that a Harris administration would be principally concerned with following the constitution, upholding the rule of law and democracy. And that even though these voters may have some disagreements with her on policy matters, it is these fundamentals that are most important.

She will have former Congresswoman Liz Cheney, longtime Republican up on that stage with her tonight here to bolster that message. The campaign also investing in this strategy with a new ad featuring, a man that supported the former president in 2016 and 2020. Take a listen.

(VIDEO PLAYING) MCKEND: And Manu, it's not only here in Wisconsin, where they are touting this message. They have Republican surrogates fanned out across the next four days, across the battleground states. But listen, not all Democrats think that this is the best strategy. Some Democrats tell me that they think that the campaign should be investing instead in shoring up the base of the party and key constituencies core to the coalition.

By comparison, the Trump campaign isn't employing something similar. They do have Democrats, former Democrats on the campaign trail for them, but there is no Democrats for Trump equivalent.

But listen, I spoke to Wisconsin Democrats here, and they endorsed this strategy. They say that it is actually one that they use cycle after cycle. Ripon, of course, is in a Republican county but they still rely on the Democrats here to turn out the vote and to ultimately win in the state. Manu?

RAJU: Yeah. Cut down their loss, narrow down that margin. That's their hope. At least we'll see if Liz Cheney makes any difference at all. Eva McKend, who is live for us on the ground there, Wisconsin. Thank you.

Panel is back. So, let's assess this. There was some good news for Harris, according to a Marquette Law School Poll that recently came out that has her leading by 11 points among likely independent voters in Wisconsin. We'll see it's outside the margin of error. We'll see that's how -- that's consistent with other polling as well. But does this make a difference Cheney in the campaign trail?

BARRON-LOPEZ: I think it can. Again, we're talking about at the margins and we're in, you know, swing state like Wisconsin. The margins matter, slicing off any little bit of the electorate that you can get, especially if she thinks she's going to lose other parts of the base that maybe aren't coming home.

She could potentially expand her votes with these disenchanted Republicans, with these independents, who might be more in the middle, a little bit to the right, and they hear from someone like Liz Cheney, who's as conservative as they come, who probably disagrees with on almost every single policy, except for foreign policy like Ukraine and the Middle East.

[12:20:00]

Saying, look, that's not what matters this election cycle. What matters is the constitution. And when I was just in Arizona, I did a roundtable with disenchanted Republicans who, at various points had voted for Trump. Some didn't, but others had. And we're going to feature that next week on PBS NewsHour.

But one of the voters said that January 6, he voted for Trump in 2020, and January 6 was his reason. The rule of law was his reason why he was not going to vote for Trump again.

RAJU: And just to that point about how do voters view the issue of democracy? This is according to a CNN poll -- national poll, likely voters. 21 percent of likely voters, a significant margin of national poll likely voters. That's below the economy, of course, which is always the dominant issue here, but above other issues.

But then, when you ask Wisconsin voters, according to New York Times, Siena Poll about the issue of democracy being the most important issue. According to this poll, 5 percent. That's the lowest of these issues that were rated here. So how does that play, I mean the issue? It's big for a lot of Harris' voters, but independent swing voters. Is this an issue though could change how they view the race?

ZELENY: We'll see again on the margins. I mean, Wisconsin was a very slim win for Biden last time. And as Laura was saying, the margins matter in Wisconsin. But those independent numbers, I think, are very interesting. Of all the wash of polling information that is really out there. It's kind of a whiplash in some respects. Those independent voters in that Marquette survey, that's a very trusted poll. Harris is gaining significant ground on Trump in that.

So, look, I mean, look at the numbers there. That is her biggest lead, really among any cohort. So, I think it does matter to a degree. A question I have, is she also going to sort of energize the MAGA base there as well. Liz Cheney has become, really a symbol of, you know, for the Trump folks, someone who they dislike intensely.

So, you know, that's one of the questions. With all this travel going on, all the candidates going, you can sort of fire up the other person's base as well. But I am anxious to hear her remarks. This will be the most high-profile appearance of Liz Cheney. She has endorsed Harris last month. She's spoken about this a bit at Duke University last month, but she's never given a fulsome speech.

I'm told she will introduce the vice president tonight, and just that image there on stage. It's nothing we could have imagined all that long ago. A fun Wisconsin fabulous, Cheney was born in Wisconsin, in Madison. Her parents were graduate students at the time. Your alma mater, of course, yes. Go badger.

RAJU: Yes. Go badger.

(CROSSTALK)

RAJU: We should clip that and show that -- show that at Wisconsin events. Thank you for saying that. Before you jump in, I do want to talk about the, you know, yes, she's gotten some support. Harris has from some Republicans like Liz Cheney, but there are also some Democrats who are moderate Democrats, some from swing states, some districts who are not quite there yet on Kamala Harris.

I actually just was in Montana over the last couple of days, the most -- perhaps the most pivotal, Senate race. One that could actually determine control of the United States Senate, depending of the incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester can hang onto his seat in that reddening state. And I asked him about whether he's willing to get behind Kamala Harris and actually vote for her.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Harris is obviously making this harder for you not endorsing her, so?

SEN. JON TESTER (D-MT): Well, that's because they don't want this race to be nationalized any more than they want it to be nationalized. I want to talk about Montana. That's what this race is about.

RAJU: Would you vote for her?

TESTER: That's between me and the ballot box.

RAJU: But do you think that she would make the country better if she's president?

TESTER: Look, I've been appreciating some of the things you said, because she moderated on roll out issues, which is what happens when you get to be in a position where you are going to make a difference.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Reaction?

TALEV: That pretty much says it all. It is going to be Liz Cheney with Kamala Harris, not Jon Tester with Kamala Harris, and that is the state that he's in, and that is the moment that this race is in. Going back to some of that trivia, though, a little bit of Wisconsin intrigue, the reason that that place is considered the birthplace of the Republican Party is because of a structure called the little white schoolhouse, which was a schoolhouse.

There was a meeting in 1854, which essentially was a breakaway movement of political leaders who wanted to oppose the expansion of slavery westward. And I think it -- I don't know how sticky this messaging will be with voters, but some of the symbolism of what Liz Cheney is doing is saying there are some things that are more important than who gets elected, or than perpetuating your own majority.

Sometimes you have to break away from what a political party represents when you don't agree with what it represents. And that is part of the symbolism of what she's trying to tell Republicans. Look, it's more important to believe in democracy than it is to back Trump and to tell Democrats it's more important for us to join together regardless of our different social views, because of this bigger thing.

[12:25:00]

RAJU: Yeah. And we're seeing some scrambled political lines, if you will, in this election -- in this much --

TALEV: Amazing Tester interview --

RAJU: Yeah. And there's a much more. Actually, of my conversation with Jon Tester tonight, catch that interview along with what's going on in that critical Senate race tonight and out front with Erin Burnett. That's at seven o'clock eastern.

All right, next. A Republican ally of Donald Trump's joins me. What does he think of the special counsel's evidence against the former president? And how should the U.S. handle the Middle East, teetering on the brink.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)