Return to Transcripts main page

Inside Politics

Sources: Hamas Leader Believed Killed In Gaza Operation; U.S. Official: "We Don't Know What This Means Yet"; IDF Checking DNA, Fingerprints To Confirm If Hamas Leader Killed; Defense Minister: Israel Will " Pursue And Eliminate" Its Enemies; U.S. Officials Hoped Sinwar Death Could Unlock Hostage Deal. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 17, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DANA BASH, CNN HOST: Welcome to Inside Politics. I'm Dana Bash in Washington. And we start with breaking news. Israeli sources believe the mastermind of the October 7 terror attack was killed in an operation in Gaza. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is responsible for the slaughter of more than 1200 people on the terrible day, including 46 Americans, and also more than 100 hostages who are still being held in Gaza.

I want to get straight to CNN's Jeremy Diamond, who is reporting from Tel Aviv. Jeremy, what are you hearing at this hour?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Well, Dana, we still don't have official confirmation that the man who was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza is indeed the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. But all indications at this point certainly are pointing in that direction.

We have seen images of the body of a man who certainly resembles Yahya Sinwar that have been playing on Israeli media all throughout the night. We also know that Israeli forces are still working to confirm it without a shadow of a doubt, with DNA analysis being done on this body that was recovered from the rubble in Gaza.

Now I am getting some details on exactly how this actually took place, and it wasn't the result of any kind of intelligence driven or special operations raid. Rather, this was Israeli ground troops carrying out routine military operations, who began engaging a group of three suspected militants.

And it was only after some kind of a battle ensued with a tank apparently firing on the building in which these men were in, that the bodies were recovered. And there is when they found that this one body clearly appeared to resemble the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

And so, now that DNA testing is underway, and we could be very close to the confirmation of whether or not this was indeed the leader of Hamas. Make no mistake, this is an enormous moment, if indeed it is confirmed. Sinwar was not only the mastermind of the October 7 attack that killed some 1200 Israelis, triggering a deadly war in Gaza that has seen more than 41,000 people killed. But of course, he has also been responsible for holding the -- some 100 hostages who still remain in Gaza.

But on that point, the Israeli military says that there were no hostages around him, which is quite notable, given that one of the working assumptions was that Sinwar was likely surrounding himself with about a dozen hostages, using them as human shields. But that doesn't appear to have been the case. Dana?

BASH: It really is remarkable because, as you said, that was one of the big fears that he was surrounding himself with hostages. Speaking of -- just in talking to your sources there in the region, what are they saying about assuming that this was Sinwar who was killed? What it means for the hostages who are still in Gaza?

DIAMOND: Well, it's really an uncertain picture at this point, Dana. There are some Israeli officials who believe that this will help speed up cease fire and hostage deal negotiations. And this provides some kind of a window of opportunity to make that deal with the leader of Hamas, now having been killed.

If indeed that is confirmed, the picture of victory that the Israeli prime minister has been looking for, and a Hamas organization that will be weakened to the point that they may agree to conditions that they weren't ready to agree to before.

But I've also spoken with another Israeli source familiar with the conversations, who tells me that there is also the potential for chaos to ensue within Hamas in the wake of the killing of Yahya Sinwar, and that without any kind of immediate clear successor to Sinwar, that that chaos could actually put the lives of the hostages in danger, either because some of the guards might want to carry out revenge and kill the hostages, or because they are -- the Hamas guards are not sure what to do with them without any kind of long term plan.

So, a lot of uncertainty, but certainly this is going to change the picture, change the game in Gaza and in the region going forward. Dana?

[12:05:00]

BASH: So, so much uncertainty. Jeremy, thank you so much. If you get any news, obviously, raise your hand and we'll come right back to you. Speaking up, I want to go to Kylie Atwood at the state department. Kylie, you have some new reporting. After speaking with your sources about what is happening there and what it could mean going forward?

KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, Dana, U.S. officials I'm talking to even privately are making no predictions at this moment about what the potential death of Sinwar would mean for the Israel, Hamas war. We have heard in the past that it would be a game changer for this conflict. If Sinwar were to be killed, we know that was one of Israel's top objectives of this war. But U.S. officials today are simply saying that they don't know exactly what this means right now. This could lead to -- according to one U.S. official, rapid movement towards a cease fire and hostage release deal. Or that official told me that there could be a long pathway ahead, returning to those ongoing discussions that we have seen between the U.S. and Israel and Gaza -- excuse me, and Hamas through the Qataris in Egypt for months now.

So, we will continue to watch the U.S. assessment on that front. But I do think it's worth noting that the Secretary of State Antony Blinken had said in the past that Sinwar held the keys to any deal in his hands, essentially that he was the one who was standing in the way of the deal.

And so now, if his death is indeed confirmed, we will be seeing that proposition somewhat tested. And when it comes to what Jeremy was saying about this operation not actually being planned to go after Sinwar, a U.S. official told me that they believe that the IDF is just as surprised, if not more surprised than U.S. officials are by this news today. Dana?

BASH: It's just stunning. Thank you so much Kylie for that reporting. I want to bring in some experts on this very issue, retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, former deputy national security of Intelligence Director Beth Sanner, and CNN Global Affairs Analyst Kim Dozier.

General Hertling, let's pick up where Kylie just left off about the reporting, she's getting of the IDF, maybe being as surprised as anyone that they got Sinwar, if in fact, it turns out to be him.

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yeah. I can see this playing out in my mind's eye, Dana. You know, when you're talking about a counterterrorism fight, there are targeted, kinetic strikes against what your intelligence says is out there and it guides the operation.

And there is sometimes just what Carl Clausewitz, 180 years ago, called chance. When something happens -- and I can see it playing out where Sinwar and the other three people you're with came out of a tunnel entrance inside of a building and realized they were around a bunch of Israeli fighters.

And they were scrambling to try and counter those fighters. And in a counter terrorism environment that has tank fire, and I had heard this earlier from one of my sources, that a tank had actually shot the building to kill all three. That prevents a requirement for a tactical action by individual soldiers.

You just shoot the building, and that's what Israel did. And what happened is they got lucky because Sinwar was there. This will cause dysfunction in the organization, but in my view, it's not going to cause the end of the fight against Hamas.

BASH: Well. And Beth Sanner, what about that? Because, you know, we've heard from Kylie and from Jeremy, and you know so many for the past year that this is all about Sinwar, and he's got to be the one to agree to release the hostages, and he's a key part of the ceasefire deal with him gone.

Yes, maybe there's a hope that there could be a deal in the offing. But with whom, if there is the chaos in the ranks of what's left of Hamas as the general said.

BETH SANNER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Exactly. And I think that, you know, this is -- this is -- I was going to use the same quote from Clausewitz on chance. And the real issue with chance in war is whether you're prepared to take advantage of the opportunities that that presents. But I think we risk getting ahead of ourselves and understanding the complexities that Jeremy, Kylie and General Hertling have all brought up.

I do think that the Hamas leadership in Doha, and we've heard some leadership in Gaza, mid-level leadership, they're much more willing to negotiate than Sinwar was. But that is going to have to play out, right? And so, the hope here -- the real question is, who is looking for an off ramp?

And I do think one of the things we're not talking about right now is how much more important Iran becomes in this moment where you don't have Sinwar, who was blocking, and now you maybe have more influence by Iran.

[12:10:00]

BASH: So interesting. I mean, you bring up so many important points. And Kimberly, you have covered this region for some time. You understand the sort of the impulses and the culture in and among what goes on in Gaza, particularly among Hamas and that -- and that regime. What is your sense of what we should be looking for if, in fact, this was Sinwar who was killed?

KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, it could lead to chaos, but it could lead to another leadership tussle between various Hamas leaders who tried to get the job after Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, an attack attributed to Israel, but not claimed by Israel.

So, there are people like Khaled Mashal and other leaders who still are in power, still alive and could step into that role. And like Hezbollah, after Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah has gotten more violent, so Hamas could become more entrenched. On the Israeli side, Sinwar was one of the prisoners that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to release back in 2011 because they were trying to get a single Israeli soldier back.

So, from his perspective, this is a personal target that has been met, but his government around him is still very right wing, very hard line has been against a cease fire and a deal with Hamas in the past. So, we could just be another impasse, leavened by the chaos of Sinwar's absence.

BASH: And General Hertling, I'm so glad Kimberly brought that up about the fact that Sinwar was a prisoner and an Israeli prison for 22 years. And he was released as part of a prisoner swap to get the IDF soldier Gilad Shalit back. That happened in 2011. What is also fascinating is that I presume one of the reasons that they have his DNA is because when he was a prisoner, he needed brain surgery, and his life was saved by the Israelis, by an Israeli doctor who did surgery on his brain. And he lived. He was swapped. He was sent back to Gaza as part of that prisoner swap, and then he became the head of Hamas and came up with this attack. That was the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust. I mean, that is part of this story that should not be left out.

HERTLING: It shouldn't and it's interesting. Not only do they have his DNA, they also have his fingerprints in Israel. The thing I keep going back to, Dana, is, you know, we have to look at what the political strategic objectives are. The political strategic objectives of Mr. Netanyahu is to destroy Hamas, not to defeat them, but to destroy them. The political objective of Hamas has always been, and it's part of their charter to destroy the Jewish state and to kill Jews.

So, when we're talking about a transfer of power in an organization that is based on terrorism, they're wanting to continue this. And Sinwar is now a martyr. He's going to be seen by fellow terrorists in this organization as someone who has died for the cause.

So even though, if there is a transfer of power to another potential leader, I still don't perceive that we're going to see any kind of action between Hamas and Israel that will extend the potential for a hostage deal or even a cease fire. It may, I hope it does, but it probably won't.

BASH: And we have to take a quick break. But I wanted Beth ask you about that from your perch and perspective on Intel. Yes, he Sinwar and Hamas, they are terrorists, and they want to do away with the state of Israel, but they also terrorize their own people, Palestinians. So how much -- how much is that part of the dynamic that could help in with his -- with his demise, potentially trying to stabilize things in Gaza?

SANNER: Yeah. I mean, I think, I agree with General Hertling to a point, but I do think that, you know, we have heard that Sinwar is and was just singularly determined as the Butcher of communists and a person who was absolutely willing to sacrifice Palestinian civilian lives and said so that these were necessary martyrs or victims.

So, I -- but I also think that there are people further down who might not have his grit and his ability to not be human in some ways, the way that we think of it. And so, you know, again, like there may be opportunities here, but I think one of the things we have to think about is, will Israel be willing to release 700 Palestinian hardened prisoners, 100 of which are -- have life sentences. I don't think so, not now.

[12:15:00]

And so, the question is also key, will Israel want to rewrite this kind of agreement? And this is where I think we will be in, and I agree it's going to be a difficult negotiation. And maybe, you know, and with whom? BASH: All right, everybody. Thank you so much. Don't go far. Up next, because we are Inside Politics. We will talk about the political angle of today's developments in Gaza, with only 19 days until the election. Millions of Americans are already voting. How will this impact that. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:20:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: For months, U.S. officials have believed Yahya Sinwar is primarily responsible for holding up a hostage deal. And that his death, not yet confirmed, could be a game changer in the region and help potentially end the war in Gaza. That is very, very TBD. But the question now with very few days left until the presidential election is what impact it will have on U.S. politics.

I want to bring in my political reporters here, CNN's Manu Raju, CNN's Priscilla Alvarez, and Ramesh Ponnuru of The National Review. I'm going to talk to you about -- Manu, about your trip, which you just came back from to Michigan, where -- when it comes to sort of the politics of the election. And how -- what's going on in the Middle East affects that election. There's no place where it probably matters more than Michigan.

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. It's incredibly complicated in Michigan. And I'm not sure how much getting Israel what's happening there back of the news is going to be helpful for Kamala Harris. In a place like Michigan, there's a group, an Arab American political action committee, that has urged all of its members, all the Arab community within Muslim within Michigan, which is about 3 percent of the population, about 310,000 people.

This is the second largest Arab population in the entire country, the biggest of any of the swing states. Urging them to sit out of the presidential election and the Senate race because they don't like any of the candidates. What kind of impact will that have? What kind of impact will this be having the psyche of some of those voters who are weighing whether to sit out or not sit out.

And also, there are Republican groups, at least there's one Republican outside group. They're trying to agitate with the Arab American community, in fact, advertising to promote both Kamala Harris and Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic candidates ties and support for Israel in their targeted campaign, ad campaign at the Arab community to try to depress turnout among the key electorate. So, we'll see. The foreign policy doesn't always drive the electorate, but in this case, in this state, maybe it could.

BASH: So that's Michigan. The flip side is that, you know, part of the kind of wrap on the Biden, Harris administration has been, if you kind of look at foreign policy generally, that things have kind of been a mess to use a non-official term recently. And if, big if, this day, this moment provides an exit ramp for the war that we've seen it so far. That could be a positive for the Harris campaign.

PRISCILLA ALVAREZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: And with Michigan in particular, she's actually going there tomorrow. So, let's see how today plays out, because she will be there tomorrow, and she has met with the Arab American community in previous visits to that battleground state.

I will say though, Dana, I have been speaking to campaign officials about this. And what they tell me is that they are going to quote, limit losses. There is an acknowledgment that this war has cost them some corners of the Democratic Party that perhaps in other election cycles would have been voting for the vice president.

And so that has added more urgency in their pushes to try to reach those white college educated voters in the suburbs, especially in a state like Michigan. So yes, while foreign policy doesn't rank high. What it has posed a risk for them is that these voters that they otherwise would have been able to put in their column or not in their column guaranteed any longer, because they may not show up at all to vote.

And so that has pressed them to have to reach other voters, especially those disaffected Republicans as we saw yesterday to put again behind the vice president. But certainly, this is an issue that has come up multiple times at the vice president's rallies. I have seen the protesters and every time the vice president comes back to the cease fire deal. So that's another outstanding question of all of this, is what happens there. And what can she say, if anything, in these final weeks of the election?

BASH: And the flip side of that -- I'm going to go to Pennsylvania this weekend to do a story on the Jewish vote, which is less certain in the Democrats' column for the same reason, because they're not entirely happy with how things are going. What do you think?

RAMESH PONNURU, EDITOR, NATIONAL REVIEW: I think that the Republicans already know what to say. Their line is going to be. And I think it's an accurate argument that if the Israelis had listened to the Biden administration, not gotten -- gone into RAWA. They wouldn't have been able to achieve as much as they have. They wouldn't have been able to take these enemies of the United States off the board.

[12:25:00]

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, I think you've got the same fundamental dilemma that you've always had. You've got a split coalition. You've got a vocal segment of the party that is very critical of Israel and a broader public that is generally supportive of Israel, that leads to contortions, that leads the administration constantly saying things, this level of civilian casualties is unacceptable, while essentially accepting it.

BASH: Yeah, yeah. I'm not sure how split it is, but I take your point that it's the very, very loud, very passionate part of the democratic coalition. They make their views now.

PONNURU: And there is -- and leading Democrats are certainly wary of it. That's something that keeps them worried.

RAJU: Yeah. More than Harris is really not deviated from the Biden's policy on Israel, which is why that has angered that segment of the party that is unhappy with their alliance, with Israel at the moment. But, you know, Trump is really not even articulated what he would do in this war. All he said is, it wouldn't have happened. October 7 would have happened. Well, how, right?

I think he has not really expressed what he would do now to get the hostages out. How to actually implement a ceasefire agreement? So, we'll see how his tone changes if this news is confirmed.

BASH: Yeah. That's such an important point. All right, everybody standby. We have a lot more on this breaking story coming up. The White House believes killing Yahya Sinwar could help end the war. Big question is whether they are right. I will ask a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:30:00]