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Inside Politics

Harris Ad Says Second Trump Term Would Be "Unhinged, Unstable"; New CNN Poll Of Polls: Race Virtually Tied With 18 Days To Go; AdImpact: Dems Outspent GOP Ads By $921M To $569M Since July; Campaigns Spend Millions To Lure Battleground State Voters. Aired 12:30-1p ET

Aired October 18, 2024 - 12:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[12:30:40]

DANA BASH, CNN ANCHOR: There are 18 days to go until the election. Nearly 10 million Americans have already cast their ballots, and the universe of persuadable voters is narrowing. Vice President Harris is seeking them out by doing interviews in non-traditional places, podcasts, radio shows, even Fox News. And this week, she has pretty much taken up residency in those blue wall states.

Joining me now is one of the architects of the Harris Battleground State Strategy, Campaign Senior Adviser David Plouffe. Nice to see you. Thank you so much for being here.

Let's talk about those blue wall states. She is in Michigan today. Does the campaign, do you now believe that those states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, that's the most favorable path to victory? And is the Sun Belt more out of reach at this point?

DAVID PLOUFFE, SENIOR ADVISER, HARRIS-WALZ CAMPAIGN: Not at all. I mean, we have multiple pathways to 270, Dana, that I think is really important in a presidential race. So when you look at, you know, Nevada and Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, they're all incredibly close, as are the blue wall states.

So there are seven states that are going to come down to a very small margin, and we're trying to reach every voter we can. That's voters who haven't yet decided who are going to vote. Voters that we think are going to support us, who haven't decided whether to vote yet, and want to close as strong as we can. So, no, we think all seven states now remain incredibly competitive, and Kamala Harris has a pathway to winning each of them.

Let's talk about the messaging in order to reach those sliver of voters in all of those seven key states. Your campaign, the candidate herself, gotten a lot more aggressive in going after Donald Trump's behavior. Just one example is a new ad from your campaign I want to play.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Donald Trump makes a lot of promises, but we can be sure of one thing. If he wins, he'll ignore all checks that reign in a president's power. A second Trump term, more unhinged, unstable, and unchecked.

(END VIDEOCLIP)

BASH: David, nearly every one of Donald Trump's opponents over the past nine years or so made their race about Trump's behavior or his character, and almost all of them have lost. Marco Rubio, Hillary Clinton, Nikki Haley, and just naming a few there. What are you seeing in your data that makes you think this is going to help you right now?

PLOUFFE: Well, I'm glad you asked about data, Dana. We're obviously not going to do things that are not consistent with how we think we will win this race with the voters that will decide it. So I'd say a couple things. First of all, we just read this morning, Trump's own campaign is saying the reason that he's canceling appearances, he won't do a town hall on your network, won't do a second debate is because he's exhausted.

So this is important. I've worked in the White House. It's the hardest job in the world, and I think it raises real questions. If somebody can't handle the campaign trail because they're so exhausted, whether they're fit to be president.

Now, that ad, all the other messaging we're doing, and I think you just have to watch him every day. He is more unstable, more unhinged, and he's got a plan in Project 2025 that wants to give him unchecked power. Someone like that needs guardrails.

He's saying he doesn't want any guardrails. We're also making sure that all the other people who worked for him, former chiefs of staff, national security advisers, defense secretaries are in our advertising. So the people say the people closest to him say this about him, but we're very much connecting it to the average person, which is someone like this wants to enact a reckless tariff and tax plan that would add thousands of dollars to the average middle class family's tax bill.

He tried to get rid of the Affordable Care Act 60 times. He wants to do it again. You're going to pay a big price for his instability and the fact that he is after unchecked power. So when we talk to those swing voters that are still deciding, the notion, we're trying to paint a picture, one of these two people is going to be in the White House.

When you think about Donald Trump, increasingly unstable, desirous of unchecked power, how's that going to work out for you?

BASH: Yes.

PLOUFFE: And what we hear from a lot of voters is deep concern.

BASH: Unstable, unchecked power, old. But particularly those first two words you repeated several times, just as you did in the ad, which makes me think that those are the ones that are sort of pinging, if you will, in the focus groups with persuadable voters.

[12:35:00]

PLOUFFE: Maybe. Don't forget unhinged. Yes.

BASH: OK.

PLOUFFE: So, this is an important part of the close. Obviously, we're talking about the economy. We're talking about health care. We're talking about abortion. But people are deciding.

People are voting now. They're casting their ballots as we speak. The people who have yet decided to vote every day, some of those people decide who to vote for. So we're trying to paint the picture of the two people who will be in the White House, either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, what that will mean for you and your family.

BASH: So, David, let's talk about the other side of this equation right now and what Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans are doing, where they think that they can get those persuadable voters. Republicans have spent $21 million on ads focused on LGBTQ rights.

In particular, one-third of total spending just this month has been on trans ads, warning Americans about trans people. You are too young, but I remember in 2004, I covered the George W. Bush re-election campaign. They successfully used same-sex marriage as a wedge issue, and it helped them win Ohio.

And we're hearing concerns from Democrats that these Republican ads on trans issues is the 2024 version of that. Concern that you're not responding. Why not?

PLOUFFE: Well, first of all, Dana, I think Kamala Harris actually spoke to this in the Fox News interview. So this policy is one that was in place during Donald Trump's administration. So huge hypocrisy here. What we see from voters is they are more concerned about their pocketbook, about their health care, about leadership qualities.

The other thing I'd say is this is very revelatory about who Donald Trump and his campaign are. Their focus basically, the majority of their campaign right now, is on two inmates and their health care, which courts have said they need to be provided, and Donald Trump's administration paid for.

So --

BASH: But they're paying a lot of money to tell voters otherwise.

PLOUFFE: Right.

BASH: Do you want to spend some of the millions and millions and millions that you have to combat that, or you don't see that their ads are working? PLOUFFE: Yes. We're going to make the case we think we need to make with the voters that will decide this election. I think if this was politically powerful for them in the way they're suggesting, listen, we never had ourselves with a lead in this race. We started this campaign when Kamala Harris became the nominee.

Six, seven points down in every battleground state have closed the gap. We're in a tied race, and we don't think ultimately that's going to drive vote. And that's always what matters most to me and any political professional is what's actually going to cause somebody to decide to vote for you who wasn't, or what's going to cause somebody to vote for you that wasn't.

I also think presidential campaigns generally have been successful when they're about big things, and Donald Trump right now is about very small things, which I think is a big contrast with how Kamala Harris is closing this race.

BASH: There are a number of key groups in the Democratic coalition, I don't need to tell you, who are not supporting Kamala Harris in the same numbers that they did for Joe Biden, who obviously beat Donald Trump. Black voters, Latino voters, especially the men in those groups. Where do you think you can make up for what we're seeing in the deficits in the polls?

PLOUFFE: Well, first of all, Dana, no election is exactly like the one previous, right? And so, I'd say that the biggest thing demographically happened in this election, which it's curious to me it doesn't get more attention than it does, is Donald Trump is facing historic gender gap with women.

And if you look at young women, he may end up losing them by 40, 45 points. And those younger women turn out at higher rates than younger men. So we have some real strength on our side. Obviously, Kamala Harris has spoke to this, and I think this is the right approach. It's certainly been her approach and her dictate to us is we're going to treat every cohort as if they are a swing voter universe.

You know, whether those be black men, black women, Latino men, Latino women. So the way I think about it, we're focused on seven states. Do I think we can reach our numbers with the voter cohort you just mentioned, consistent with our strengths in other part of the electorate to get a win number and get to 270 electoral votes? I do.

Another thing I think particularly important with Latino voters is, in Florida, Donald Trump's going to win Latino voters. Florida is a big state. So any national poll, and I generally think national polls are completely irrelevant as you look at the presidential race.

But we're focused on what is our Latino number in Arizona, in Nevada, with the Puerto Rican community throughout Pennsylvania. You know, Philadelphia has the second highest population of Puerto Rican voters in the continental U.S. after New York. So in those states.

But we're going to fight for every vote, whether that's, you know, with our television ads, the candidate schedule, the media she's doing. But very importantly, the ground game. I think door knocking is going to be more important in this presidential race than anyone I can remember in recent memory.

And I think we've got the organization to be out there because there's still voters at this late date, as much as you and I have focused on this race, who are just beginning to check in and have somebody from their neighborhood come and listen to them and have a conversation with them is incredibly important.

[12:40:12]

BASH: I'm glad you brought that up. We are out of time. Will you come back and talk to me more about the ground game?

PLOUFFE: Of course.

BASH: I'm just putting you in the spot right on the air.

PLOUFFE: Of course.

BASH: David, thank you so much. Great to see you.

PLOUFFE: Good to see you, Dana.

BASH: And we will be right back. Don't go anywhere.

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[12:45:00]

BASH: Welcome back to Inside Politics. I want to bring in CNN's Chief National Affairs Correspondent Jeff Zeleny to talk about what we heard from David Plouffe. You covered the Obama campaign, the [ph]. You are familiar with his work. And obviously, he gave us a lot of information about where he thinks this race is right now. What was your biggest takeaway?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: He's a tactician. And David Plouffe knows well what he speaks in terms of nuts and bolts. I've got a couple of interesting things. One, this is still a race in seven battleground states. They're not saying the three blue wall states are more important than the four Sun Belt states.

We don't know if they're treating them equally in their minds, but they are in terms of spending. So this late stage in the campaign, the fact that there are still so many routes to the presidency, that is key. I thought on the trans issue, your questions, they're so key.

Thinking it back to 2004, that gay marriage question in Ohio. Yes, it's a different time a couple of decades on, but it is resonating out there and worrying some Democrats. He is saying and this isn't new to them. They obviously know this because they do focus groups every night.

All the dial testing saying we don't think it's going to drive the vote. So my question here now is, are they truly -- do they believe it's not driving things or are they worried if they defend it? That will create even more issues for them.

BASH: To give it more oxygen.

ZELENY: And as he said, he mentioned the word unhinged. That is clearly they still believe that they have a lot of mileage yet to go to disqualify Donald Trump from the presidency. But your question so astute, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Hillary Clinton, they've all tried to sort of paint him as unacceptable, unqualified. It didn't work for them. Will it now? It's a different time.

I'm struck by one thing I learned this week. One voter said, January 6th happened since the 2020 election. It was not part of the last election. It's a part of this election. So Donald Trump is a different person with a different record than before.

But David Plouffe there said that door knocking will be the most important thing. That means they are betting everything on their ground game (ph).

BASH: Yes, they sure are. And he promised to come back to talk about that.

ZELENY: He should.

BASH: Thanks, Jeff. Appreciate that.

ZELENY: You bet. Great interview.

BASH: Coming up, the Harris and Trump teams are dishing out well over $1 billion, with a B, to reach a very, very, very small sliver of voters. Harry, does that show me the money? What is that? That's just cash. OK. Harry Enten is coming up. We'll have his mic on when he comes back to.

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[12:52:01]

BASH: Get this, nearly $1.5 billion. $1.5 billion has been spent on presidential ads in just the past three months. Since Vice President Harris ascended to the top of the ticket in July, Democrats have spent a jaw dropping $921 million, $921 million for Democrats, eclipsing the $569 million shelled out by Republicans. Nearly all of that money is targeting a very, very small sliver of the American population across a handful of states.

CNN's Harry Enten is here to help break down the numbers. So, Harry, so much money. So few voters.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL DATA REPORTER: Oh, my God, I wish I could get some of that money. My God, maybe then, you know, I'd be able to afford a little bit better dinner.

Let's just talk about the money that's being spent in the battleground states from this point onward, since October 15th onward from candidates, parties and PACs. Look at this. $351 million will be spent over the next few weeks. Oh, my God. All of that money going into so few states.

Now, what type of numbers are we talking about in terms of how many voters this is targeting? Well, how many voters are there? Nationwide, there's over 200 million voters. But in those key battleground states, what are we talking about in terms of registered voters? Only about 45 million voters and over, as we pointed out, $351 million, Dana.

BASH: And it's just a subset of voters in these states that these ads are targeting.

ENTEN: Absolutely right. So how many undecided voters are there in these key battleground states? Well, on vote choice, what are we talking about? We're talking about 5 percent of voters who say they're undecided. How many voters is that? That's only about 2 million voters.

Now, there may be folks who are undecided about vote choice or know who they would want to vote for, but aren't necessarily going to turn out. So let's take a look at that. All right, what are we talking about?

In those key battleground states, those who say that there are less than likely, very likely to vote, we're talking about 11 percent, 11 percent. But that's only, Dana, about 5 million voters. So we're talking about a very, very small portion of the electorate in these key battleground states.

BASH: OK, so you're on because you can do math, so I don't have to. How much money is being spent per voter based on what you just showed?

ENTEN: Yes. Yes, this is where it gets a little bit crazy. So, look, let's all sum it up right. We're talking about a very small spice, slice of the electorate that is being fixated on. Again, 200 million voters plus nationwide. The battleground targeted voters.

When you account for the likelihood to vote, as well as those being undecided, we're talking about 5 million to 7 million people. So how much is being spent on those folks? Well, it's unbelievable.

[12:55:02]

We're talking about 351 million being spent overall. How about spent targeted per voter?

BASH: Oh my gosh.

ENTEN: We're talking, look at that, $50 to $70 per voter. It's unbelievable. I couldn't imagine all that -- all those ads. It, honestly, makes me shiver up, Dana.

BASH: Well, you know, I mean, never mind. I was going to --

ENTEN: Never (ph). BASH: -- say something that I'm -- I'm not going to say, but --

ENTEN: No, go.

BASH: -- but move to the -- move to your left a little bit, because I want our viewers to see it again. Well, not that much. $50 to $70 per voter.

ENTEN: Yes.

BASH: In two weeks, by the way, in two weeks.

ENTEN: Yes. It's very little time left. A lot of ads. I just -- that would be way too much for me that I have to turn off my television. But always turn into your show.

BASH: Thank you. Especially --

ENTEN: You're welcome.

BASH: Especially great to have you on this Friday. Harry, thanks.

ENTEN: Happy Friday. Gut Shabbos.

BASH: You, too.

Thank you so much for joining Inside Politics. CNN News Central starts after the break.

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