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Inside Politics

New CNN National Poll: Harris And Trump Tied At 47 Percent; New CNN Poll: Harris Leads By 6 With Women, Trump By 6 With Men; Deadlocked: Harris, Trump Tied At 47 Percent In New CNN National Poll; Harris: Trump Has An Enemies List, I Have A To-Do List; Trump: U.S. Is "Like A Garbage Can For The World"; Trump: John Kelly Is "Stupid, A Bully Who Made Up Stories". Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 25, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Today on Inside Politics, dead locked. We have brand new CNN polling to share this hour with 11 days left. The race is literally tied. David Chalian is at the Magic Wall to take us behind the numbers.

Plus, Kamala Harris is zeroing in on Donald Trump's role in overturning Roe v. Wade. It is a central part of her closing message. I will talk to a couple forced to leave their home state of Texas to end what doctors told them was a non-viable pregnancy.

And $120 million and counting. Elon Musk is pouring an eyepopping amount of money into his push to elect Donald Trump. We have new details on what he's doing and what he likely wants out of it.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

We start deep in the heart of Texas, where both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be today. They're campaigning in that reliably red state. It may sound bit odd because there are, again, only 11 days left in one of the tightest races in history. But to be clear, Texas is not up for grabs on the presidential level. It is the epicenter of two issues, each campaign wants to highlight in his and her closing messages that is abortion and immigration.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE U.S., (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The idea that someone who survives a crime of a violation to their body would be told they don't have the authority to make a decision about what happens to their body next. That is immoral.

DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're a dumping ground. We're like a -- we're like a garbage can for the world. That's what's happened. That's what's happened to -- we're like a garbage can.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BASH: First up, CNN's David Chalian is right there at the wall, which only means one thing. There is a new exclusive poll. David?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Our final national poll of this 2024 race. And what does it show in this stable race, a tied race. Dead heat among likely voters, 47 percent Harris, 47 percent Trump. It obviously doesn't get closer to that. And I want to show you what this race has looked like over time. It has been remarkably stable. This goes all the way back to when Joe Biden was still running in August of last year.

You saw it was a 47, 46 race there. You see here the red line, the Donald Trump line. He's never been behind, outside the margin of error statistically trailing in this race. The entire time that we have pulled this race.

Let's look at it by party ID here, Dana. You see, overwhelmingly Democrats are with Harris. As you would expect, overwhelmingly down here, 92 percent of Republicans are with Trump. Harris is getting about 7 percent of Republicans. I know she's making a big play for some of those Trump resistant Republicans of late we've seen. And look at the independents. It's actually within the margin of error of that sub-group.

So, there's no real clear leader with independents, but numerically, Harris has this slight higher number there. And we've been talking a lot about the gender gap in this race. It's a little smaller in our poll overall than we've seen in some other polling. But among likely voters, Harris is plus six, 50 percent to 44 percent with women, and Donald Trump is plus six, equally 51 percent to 45 percent with men. That is a 12-point gender gap.

BASH: Now this is a national poll, as we have said, until we're blue in the face, and we'll continue to say, remind people that that is not how presidents are chosen. It's by the Electoral College and in battle ground states. However, what this poll is telling us is some of the reasons why this race is so close in those battlegrounds as well. What is some of what you're learning behind those numbers?

CHALIAN: Right. So, you know, lots of people on the Democratic side of the equation say, how could it be possible that it's tied? Why is Harris not running away with this? Well, it's the environment that she's running in. We asked folks, your financial situation over the past year. So today, compared to a year now, a plurality, nearly half. 49 percent say they are worse off today financially than they were a year ago. 35 percent say they're about the same. Only 16 percent say they're better off.

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I'll also just say, we have Joe Biden at a low approval rating at 36 percent in this poll. We have the wrong track number. Seven out of 10 Americans say, we're in the wrong direction. Things aren't going well. It's a rough environment if you're running in the incumbent party.

So, what does that mean then? Why isn't Donald Trump running away with it if that's the environment? Well, here's one issue. Look at -- look at Kamala Harris's domination, issue of abortion and reproductive rights. She is running a 21-point margin ahead of Trump on trust to handle that issue, a little bit protecting democracy is an advantageous category for her.

Trump still doing his best on immigration. He's got a 16-point lead over Harris, on the economy a 13-point lead, and on foreign policy a 10-point lead. But that abortion reproductive rights number, that's one of the reasons Donald Trump is not yet running away with this race.

And then who's left in this race, Dana? 89 percent of likely voters in this poll tell us, their mind is made up. Nine say, they could change their mind between now and casting their ballot. Though, I will say a large swath of these folks, they're not extremely motivated to vote the way that the folks who already made up their mind are. And only 2 percent of voters at this point, likely voters say they have no first choice in this race. Dana?

BASH: All right, David. Thank you. We'll see you in one second here at the table. We want to point out that that is our new national poll in six of the seven swing states. CNN's polling averages also show virtual ties. We haven't gotten enough quality polls out of Nevada to do an average there. And as of this morning, nearly 33 million Americans have already voted, including nearly 10 million in those seven states.

Joining me now at the table is Jackie Kucinich of The Boston Globe, Cleve Wootson of The Washington Post, and poof, here he is, David Chalian, and made his way from the magic. It is called the Magic Wall. Maybe it helped.

I mean, these numbers are so interesting, particularly some of what you started to show us about the cross tabs. I mean, it's Inside Politics. I can say cross.

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BASH: Yeah. We love the lingo here. And as we -- well, first of all, just your -- you know, your takeaway -- your overall takeaway of what you just saw.

CLEVE WOOTSON, WHITE HOUSE REPORTER, THE WASHINGTON POST: I think this explains a lot about why Democrats are so nervous, right? Like, Harris was supposed to rebuild this coalition from Obama to, you know, kind of wash away the fears about Joe Biden.

And, you know, she's not really sort of running, running away with it in a way that -- you know, there's concerns about black men voting, there's concerns about Arab Americans in Michigan. And it just means that at the very end, you're going to have Democrats and Republicans, but Democrats do very nervous at the end.

BASH: And, yes, about the Obama coalition, because he won twice. But it looks like she has rebuilt the coalition, or brought the Democratic ticket back from where it was when Joe Biden was still at the top of the ticket, which was no small thing --

JACKIE KUCINICH, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, THE BOSTON GLOBE & CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Which isn't one of the only things that moved at this rate, right?

BASH: Yeah, exactly.

KUCINICH: -- that debate and him leaving the ticket, otherwise, you're right. It's been absolutely stable. And even then, it kind of evened out again, right? There was that boost initially with Harris, and now we're back in this neck and neck.

The other really interesting thing I think about this poll is the -- you can really see in a crystal clear way, why the candidates are talking about, what they're talking about, right? Now, they're both in Texas. Harris is going to be talking about abortion. She's talking a lot about democracy. Trump is talking about immigration. He talks a lot about the economy.

And when we've been in the states, talking to voters, talking to who haven't cast their votes yet, not one of those 33 million people. That is like the economy and immigration, the Trump curious, the Trump leaning voters. Those are the things they talk about the most.

BASH: Yeah. Let's sort of staying on Harris and how she is trying to focus on some of the issues that pop in this poll, and clearly in the data that they have inside the campaign abortion. How abortion could affect your vote. Candidate must share your views 31 percent, one of several factors 50 percent, not a major issue only 19 percent.

CHALIAN: It's got salience. And I have been talking to Harris advisers about this, trying to press them if they think the abortion issue is as salient as it proved to be in the 2022 midterms, right on the heels of Roe vs Wade being overturned with the Dobbs decision.

And the theory -- their theory of the case is, it is, and maybe even more so. Because they believe -- and this is part of the stories that you hear Harris telling on the trail. Their theory is -- you know, back in '22, we saw in some states, like New York with the Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul or in Michigan with the Democratic Governor like Gretchen Whitmer.

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That perhaps some folks weren't -- some voters weren't thinking that abortion rights were really endangered because there were these democratic elected officials and legislatures. They don't -- now the stories of what women are experiencing in some of these states with bands that is breaking out nationally. That's not a story only being told in their state. And the Harris campaign believes that is part of what is keeping the issue so salient.

KUCINICH: Yeah. And they're focusing on women -- sorry, Dana. They're focusing not -- they're focusing on women who really want to be pregnant, like a lot of these ads that you're seeing there. They're people who really want to start families, and because of complications ended up in, you know, this web of confusion that are some of the laws in the states. And I think that's been also a very interesting part of this race.

BASH: Yeah. I mean, that's a big part of what she's going to do when she goes to Texas today. We actually have a couple who tell that very story later in the program. OK, so that's abortion. And this is sticking on the Harris side of the equation right now.

Then the other thing that she's doing in her closing argument is Donald Trump is unstable and unhinged, and you know, he's only out for himself. The question Trump's pledge to go after enemies, if elected. Reason to vote against him 50 percent, doesn't make a difference 26, reasons to vote for him 24.

WOOTSON: Yeah. You kind of long for the days when the worst thing they said was weird, right? Now they're leaning heavily in these final days, into darkness, into fascism and all that stuff. And like Jackie said earlier, you can kind of see why they're saying the things they're saying. Because it is clear that a large swath of the electorate sees that danger, sees that -- sees that argument is resonating with them.

CHALIAN: Yeah. I mean, that is a clear example, when 50 percent of the electorate, these are likely voters right say, because you are promising to use the office to go after your political enemies, that's a no go for me. Like that, that makes you a less attractive candidate.

We see it about his demeanor and temperament. We see it about his age. These are negatives on Trump, and it answers the question, well, you know, why isn't given everything we just said about the environment that Harris is running? Why isn't Trump running away with it? Abortion is one answer.

But Donald Trump's behavior is clearly another part of this equation, as are his criminal convictions. These things got so discounted a lot in the Republican primary, and they get discounted sometimes in our mind, because it's like -- but the whole Republican Party is still unified around him. But the total -- and he's more popular than ever. All those things are true, but they are still weights around him because I think without them, Donald Trump may be running away with everything --

BASH: Let me push back on or explore, not push back. Explore the whole question because I'm not pushing back because I really want to know more about it. Because, in talking to Harris campaign officials, they argue, you know, that it's not just about the polling that they have internally. It's about the data analytics, meaning they really, sort of, you know, know down to a granular level, who it is that they are still trying to persuade.

Not just get out and vote who are already convinced but persuade to vote for her. And this is one -- well, these are the two issues, but just staying on the Trump is unhinged is one of the big issues. And yet just on the going after enemies' thing, 50 percent is high, but it's not huge because you still have -- if you add it up, 50 percent saying it doesn't make a difference or the reason to vote, not for him --

(CROSSTALK)

CHALIAN: Yeah. They can explain that the race is tied, right?

BASH: Right.

CHALIAN: Right. I mean, yes, 50 percent is not high, but it is half.

BASH: Thank you for that. I want you guys to listen to something that Harris, I believe, she debuted this turn of phrase on CNN during the town hall. And she's going with it, and it is about as bumper sticker as I have heard to kind of sum up what she wants voters to take away from her candidacy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: There's a choice that everybody has. So, let's imagine it for a moment. It's either Donald Trump in there, stewing, stewing over his enemies list, or me working for you, checking off my to-do list.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOOTSON: Yeah. You can -- I mean, in these final days, both candidates, but especially Harris, really trying to give voters to something to take into the ballot box, something to take into that room with them. And this is sort of a repackaging of the argument they've made early on that Harris is willing to work for you. Donald Trump is working for himself over and over again. And the more Trump talks, the more he kind of leans into sort of that argument.

When he talks about enemies, when he talks about, you know, RINOs or Republicans or Liz Cheney or whatever. It just sort of creates that difference that Harris really hopes people think about when they're pointing that ballot.

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BASH: OK, everybody standby. Coming up, Donald Trump is slamming his former chief of staff, John Kelly. Claiming the retired four star is making up stories. But first, as a Jersey girl, it is probably against the law somewhere in New Jersey to have a television show and not, note this campaign moment.

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BASH: It's been nine years since Donald Trump launched his first campaign, talking about rapists and murderers coming from Mexico. Now he's wrapping up his third with similar de humanizing language.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) TRUMP: We're a dumping ground. We're like a -- we're like a garbage can for the world. Every time I come up and talk about what they've done to a country, get angry and angry. First time I've ever said garbage can. But you know what it's a very accurate description. The United States is now an occupied country, but it will soon be an occupied country no longer. We're not going to have this. November 5, 2024 will be called Liberation Day in America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Welcome back. I get this is his stick, and this is obviously his strategy. But like I -- as he was saying that I was thinking, imagine if a Democrat called America a garbage country like -- just imagine that.

CHALIAN: Almost any other politician not named Donald Trump, right? I don't even know that generic Republican Senate candidate could get away with that. He has -- this is, you know, one of the most befuddling things about Trump's presence on the stage the last nine years, his ability, and it's due to the strength of support he has from those who are with him. But his ability to just break through every norm that you can possibly think of, and yet still have support of half the country.

BASH: And yet -- and it's hard for me to imagine, given the sort of strategy that the Kamala Harris campaign is employing these last few weeks, that that is not going to end up in some ad, some digital ad. It's going to be pushed out to hear a guy who wants to be president calling the country he wants to be president of a garbage country.

But it does speak to the strategy that I sort of alluded to earlier, which is what the Trump campaign is trying to do is get beyond the people who love him, who are going to go vote for him. Maybe not worry so much about the persuadable voters, because if they're going to vote for him, they are, and if they're not, they're not. It's finding those voters who are totally disaffected and have not voted before but might be intrigued by listening to somebody calling America a garbage country and other things, he says.

KUCINICH: I think it's more the other things he said, it's one of the reasons you want that his campaign has wanted Tim to talk about, you know, the immigration issue, perhaps not in those terms, but and the economy, right? Because there are -- there is concern in, you know, pockets of voters about both of those things.

I think -- but that sort of rhetoric does risk having the opposite effect, maybe a voter that was leaning toward him, and then they hear rhetoric like that. So, time will only tell at this point. And we should also mention, you know, the election days every day, right? So, he turns off someone that day. It could be problematic, but we'll see when the votes are tallied.

BASH: Now, he is pushing back against the people who were in his orbit, who are now coming out. John Kelly being sort of the first among them who have said that he praised Adolf Hitler, that he is basically a fascist. He has felt the need to say that they are wrong. Let's watch that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP (voiceover): John Kelly was a stupid person. He was a stiff. He had no, no anything. He had very little. I realized I didn't like him, you know, pretty quickly in and we're stopping paying attention. But he was a bully who made up stories, and I saw him lying when he was in the administration. And Mattis, Mattis was just a guy that who wouldn't get it done. And Milley was a total dope.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOOTSON: Yeah. So, a couple things. One, it's very interesting seeing Trump call somebody a bully. At the same time, if you sort of peel back the incendiary language, you can see that clearly. He sees it as an issue that is salient and one that could have a negative effect on his chances. He wouldn't address it otherwise.

Now he may address it with the cervix words or in a mean way or by insulting people that he himself has hired. But at the same time, it's clear that he sees -- I have to push back on this. And in some way, shape or form, in order to sort of blunt this attack against.

BASH: David, I want to read you a quote that Marc Caputo from the Bulwark got from Steve Schale, who is a Democratic strategist in Florida. And he went up against the now Trump campaign manager Susie Wiles in the past in Florida.

[12:25:00]

And here's what he was saying about the strategy inside the Trump campaign. It's pretty simple, drive up the negatives on the opponent to the point that the choice comes down to one thing that her candidate has an advantage on. In this case, the economy. I suspect that's what's going on here with their ad strategy, drive Harris negatives down into the barrel with Trump, and that's a real thing my side has to guard against.

CHALIAN: And we see it having some impact, right? I mean, her -- if you look at his favorables and her favorables in our new poll today, they're about the same. Her on favor -- she's upside down. She was upside down before she was a candidate. She flipped it around in a dramatic turn of events when she became the candidate.

But you see the effect then, they went heavy on ads, and they went after her, and that, of course, we know has impact. That's the way it works in politics. And I think one of their most heavily rotated closing ads about her line on the view, when she said, she couldn't think of something that she would have done differently than Biden had.

That plays directly to what Steve is talking about. That quote about Susie's approach to this, which is like that to a country that isn't thrilled with the way things are going, not thrill with Biden, not thrill with their economic situation, that rings to them, perhaps, and helps bring up her unfavorables. BASH: OK, standby everyone, because coming up. Why is the richest man in the world reportedly in close contact with one of America's top enemies. I'll talk to a reporter digging into Elon Musk and Vladimir Putin's relationship and more. Don't go anywhere.

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