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Harris Calls Trump's Comments On Women "Very Offensive"; New CNN Polls: Harris, Trump Virtually Tied In NC And GA; Trump: I'll Protect Women "Whether The Women Like It Or Not"; Today: Harris Campaigns In Arizona & Nevada; Trump Campaign Pushing To Boost Turnout Among Men; Trump Tests Risky Ground Game With Help From Elon Musk. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 31, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

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DANA BASH, CNN HOST: Today on Inside Politics, dead lock across the map. We are unveiling our last CNN battle ground poll of this wild presidential race. And there is an overarching theme, and it is mind boggling. With just five days to go, all seven battleground states are totally up for grabs.

Plus, ground game gamble. Team Trump is relying on Elon Musk to get voters to the polls, especially in Pennsylvania. We have a new report from the trail on the risky plan that could make or break the former president's shot at a second term.

And a handful of races in some of the bluest states may determine who controls Congress. Get ready for a nail biter that could take several days there as well. I'll talk to the Republican lawmaker in-charge of his party's push to hold the House.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

Believe it or not, bears just over one hundred hours. One hundred hours left to the 2024 campaign, and it is going to be a frenzied finish. Both candidates are heading west today, with rallies in Arizona and Nevada. Kamala Harris will be joined by Jennifer Lopez, while Donald Trump holds an event with Tucker Carlson.

But first, the former president is making a campaign de tour to New Mexico, not exactly a swing state. Meanwhile, gender is back on top of the agenda. Moments ago, the vice president responded to comments that Donald Trump made last night about women.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Four weeks ago, I was saying, no, I want to protect the people. I want to protect the women of our country. I want to protect the women. Sir, please don't say that. Why? They said, we think it's -- we think it's very inappropriate for you to say. They said, well, I'm going to do it, whether the women like it or not. I've got to protect them.

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE U.S., (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It actually is, I think, very offensive to women in terms of not understanding their agency, their authority, their right and their ability to make decisions about their own lives, including their own bodies. And this is just the latest on a series of reveals by the former president of how he thinks about women and their agency.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: We're going to get back to that shortly. But first, here we are with David Chalian to break down these brand-new last battle ground polls.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: We've been here three days in a row. Now we got our final two battleground states, North Carolina and Georgia in the southeast, and they tell a similar story is what we've been seeing all week long. No clear leader in these states. It's a one-point race in each of them.

In Georgia, among likely voters. Our brand- new poll shows Trump at 48 percent support, Harris at 47 percent support. It's the flip in North Carolina. Harris is at 48 percent support among likely voters there, Trump at 47 percent support, one-point races. Let's go --

BASH: Again, no clear leader.

CHALIAN: No clear leader. This is a basically a tie. This is a tossup election. Let's go inside Georgia first, in terms of some of the coalition groups here, independent voters. And again, I just want to say, we're comparing likely voters in a poll and to what actually happened with voters in the 2020 exit polls. These are two different universes.

But instructive, among independent voters in our poll, Trump has a seven-point advantage in Georgia. In Georgia in 2020, Biden won independent voters by nine points. So that's a potential warning sign there for Harris. Black voters in Georgia in our poll, 71 percent -- percentage point advantage over Trump for Harris, that's right about where Biden was. He was at 77 points in the exit polls in terms of his advantage over Trump.

White non-college voters, Dana, in Georgia, Trump has a 66-percentage point advantage in our poll. That is his base. We should expect. It's actually even bigger than his advantage was in Georgia in the exit polls.

But in that range, in North Carolina, let's look at the same groups here. Among independent voters, Harris has a four-point advantage over Trump in our poll. That's where Biden was with independent voters in the exit polls in 2020. Remember, he lost North Carolina in 2020 by a narrow margin.

Black voters, 59 percentage point advantage. This is a huge potential warning sign. In the exit polls, and he -- Biden won black vote North Carolina by 85 percentage points. Harris, this is something she's going to want to watch for in the closing days. And then you see the white non-college here. This is perhaps a little bit of diminishment of support among Trump's base than he had four years ago.

[12:05:00]

Also, in North Carolina that governor's race. You all remember the story about Mark Robinson, of course, his support plummeted. He's at 37 percent. Josh Stein is likely to be the next governor, a Democrat in North Carolina. And some Democrats say, having this race off the map was a detriment to them, keeping every Democrat in North Carolina enthused.

BASH: Yeah. And which is a little bit counter intuitive, you would think. But, you know, who's left to win over?

CHALIAN: Well, take a look at this. So, 95 percent in both states, mine made up. Obviously, there's this small universe. But we just heard our Ebony Davis ask Vice President Harris, when you were playing the sound before, what is your argument to these final moveable voters? And her answer was immediately about the economy and bringing prices down.

And then, Dana, we take a look at those voters who tell us they've already voted. So, among those in the states who tell us they already voted. In Georgia, that's 59 percent of the folks in our poll. Harris wins them 51 percent to 44 percent. In North Carolina, 52 percent of our poll respondents tell us they already voted. So again, a majority. And Harris is winning them here 51 percent to 45 percent.

I will just note, these are closer among those that tell us that they've already voted for Harris than we see in those blue wall states where she had more of an advantage with those who tell us they already voted, Dana.

BASH: So interesting. I'm over here now. David, thank you so much for doing this. That's we are off what our friend Lisa Lerer at The New York Times calls the polar coaster now. One more thing, though, as of this hour, the total number of early voters, this is actual voters crossed the 60 million marks. 60 million, that likely means, well more than one-third of Americans who intend to vote already have voted.

Let's break all of this down with my great group of reporters here, CNN'is Phil Mattingly, CNN's Kristen Holmes, Laura Barron-Lopez of the PBS NewsHour. What do you make of those two battleground states and what they tell us?

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CHIEF DOMESTIC CORRESPONDENT: I mean, are we really off the polar coaster there? I'm talking about --

BASH: I'm off.

MATTINGLY: Come on, I don't think that anybody can be --

BASH: I'll watch from the ground and play.

MATTINGLY: -- in large part, because everything is saying the same exact thing, which is that this is a razor thin race. It is as close as it could possibly be. There has been no breakout. There has been no turn. Honestly, and we all kind of look at cross tabs like total nerds, most of the time when we get something like this, particularly at this point in the election.

I think what was interesting to me is twofold. One, the big question down in Georgia in particular is black voters. Will they come back even more? There was some concern. Obviously, slippage has been a huge point that everybody has been talking about over the course of the last several months, particularly with black men.

There have been signs, based on people, I've talked on the ground, that, OK, once we reach them, we can get them back. It's a matter of reaching them. Is there turnout effort, which is expansive down in that state, having a real effect. Young voters in the early vote down there as well have been a higher number than they've seen.

How is that going to turn out? The big thing, though, was the 5 percent I think in both states that are still persuadable, which tracks with what we've heard from both campaigns.

BASH: That's right.

MATTINGLY: 3 to 5 percent out there that they're fighting over, which means a lot could happen in the next five days.

BASH: Right. And it sounds like a nothing percentage, but when it's a dead heat, it's a lot. What about you?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I think the most striking thing to me was those North Carolina numbers among white non-educated voters for Donald Trump. There was a roughly 20-point gap there between 2020 and 20 -- and now.

I think that really goes to show you why Donald Trump has spent so much time in North Carolina in recent days and leading up to the election. We know he's going to have several more stops in the state. They really feel like in that state, they need to drive up people going to the polls, particularly his base. He had not spent a ton of time in that state.

They really believe when Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket that they were going to easily win it. They have seen the movement in the polls in the last several weeks, and they do believe that that is a state that could potentially be at risk. Now, looking at those cross tabs and looking at those white non-educated voters, that is likely why they are spending so much time in that state.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah. I mean, black voter turnout might be down a little bit right now in those states, and that is certainly a concern for Harris. But they probably are looking at those numbers you just mentioned and are happy about that. Hoping that, you know, she's driving up turnout in the suburbs. In states like North Carolina, they like it when they see big suburban turnout.

Also right now, in early voting, women are leading men by, I think, double digits, and that's a good deal for Harris. Because she clearly is betting that women are going to turn out more for her than for Trump.

BASH: I'm glad you mentioned that. Let's look at the actual early voting in these key states. And this is just the people who are voting. We don't know who they're voting for, but women are best in men in early voting in each one of these states.

And Phil Mattingly, you seem like the most appropriate person to talk to at this table about the female vote.

MATTINGLYL: Yeah.

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BASH: Going back to the beginning of the program, what we played from Donald Trump. It's like the most vintage Donald Trump moment ever, where people say to him, you don't -- probably don't want to say, you're the protector of women. So, he goes out and he says, not only am I the protector of women, I'm going to protect them even when they don't want to be protected. Kamala Harris jumps on it this morning.

Given how big of a role gender, the gender of voters, and the discussion about gender, whether it's reproductive rights or anything else is playing. How do you think this is going to impact where we are?

MATTINGLY: Should note, it's also vintage, because not only did he -- was he told it was condescending, and then doubled down with more condescending. He actually relayed the smart political advice he got in a play-by-play conversation, and then still did it anyway, which is kind of like the epitome of Trump rally on some level.

You know, the thing that I don't have a good read on, and I'd be surprised if anybody does at this point, is we talk constantly about how the Trump campaign has been laser focused and really done an expansive effort to pull in younger male voters. Male voters, generally, the gender gap is huge with men going his way.

Younger male voters in particular, reaching out to them, connecting with them, getting them registered. They're low propensity. They're not a group that tends to be anything but ambivalent when it comes to voting.

Whether or not doing so, and this is what Nikki Haley was referring to earlier this week, has actually served as a turnout boost for Democrats, for the Harris campaign with women. The gender gap is enormous. The gender gap among young voters in particular is even larger.

And whether or not that they're kind of pathway, how they're going to thread the needle on this on the Trump side ends up kind of inverting itself from the Democratic side and helping Harris is like the big question that will likely decide the election.

BARRON-LOPEZ: And on the gender gap. I mean, Harris is campaign Chair Jen O'Malley Dillon told reporters this week that they are really hoping that those women that voted, maybe silently for abortion in 2022 stick with Democrats this cycle around.

And I was just talking to a two-time Trump voter in Arizona who had been undecided a woman. And she said -- just yesterday, she told me that she's basically decided, and she's going to vote for Harris this time around. And abortion has a big -- is a big reason why she's doing that.

BASH: I want to quickly turn to the economy because that still is, with all of this other swirl, the top issue for voters across the board. And just to kind of see where we are to level set on where we are on the economy poll of polls. Arizona, Trump has a 11-point advantage. Nevada nine. And it's relatively close to that until you get to Michigan and Wisconsin, where his advantage is still there, but smaller.

And yeah, Kristen, we have seen positive economic news across the board, even just in the last few days. And as much as this is a advantage Trump, it's less of an advantage as it was certainly when Biden was on the ballot, but even when Kamala Harris started running.

HOLMES: Yeah. I think that even though we're getting this positive economic news, we do have to keep in mind that the middle of the country is not necessarily feeling what we are seeing in the newspaper and in these economic reports.

I mean, for example, I was in Allentown, Pennsylvania, and the price of deodorant was 999 and it was behind a locked case. And that's what people are seeing when they're going to the store, that these things that they used to be able to afford have not yet been impacted by the positive economy news.

Now, I do think that there is a very different take that voters have when it comes to the President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. I think they do believe that Kamala Harris is not completely in control of the economy. The same way that they believe that President Biden is.

But I do think that there are still a lot of people in the middle of the country. Voters that I'm talking to, who feel impacted by inflation, despite what we're seeing and the positive news that we're getting on the economy.

BASH: Yeah. That has been the sort of story line of the entire election. Gas prices have come down a bit --

HOLMES: Right.

BASH: But those locked up items that Trump has been hitting on that at every rally, and that is a real thing. We're going to break. But I just want you to see a funny that Tom Cotton made because we thought it was funny. The Biden, Harris economy -- this is his tweet, is so bad that seniors have to work two jobs just to make ends meet. I want to know what Donald Trump is going to say about being called a senior.

MATTINGLY: Excuse me, I'm --

(CROSSTALK)

HOLMES: Out of the dates, that I'm not even close to 80 and he's 78.

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: Coming up. We're going to get the scoop for the final five days of the trail from the reporters who are on the trail. They've been covering every move of these two candidates for months. Plus --

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's not TV ads, it's not signs and billboards. It's that face to face.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: We have new details on team Trump's unconventional plan to get out the vote with the one and only Phil Mattingly, who is going to stay and talk about what he found on the trail.

[12:15:00]

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BASH: From Cardi B to Tucker Carlson, these campaigns are using their own celebrities in the final moments to turn out every last voter. Both candidates plan to hit all seven swing states at least one more time. Donald Trump also plans rallies in two blue states, New Mexico and Virginia.

[12:20:00]

Let's talk about these strategies and these final days with our reporters on the ground who have been covering each candidate nonstop. Eva McKend is with the Harris campaign in Phoenix, Alayna Treene is in Henderson, Nevada with the Trump campaign.

So, Eva, let's start with you in Phoenix. What are you seeing there and what have you been seeing that she knows about?

EVA MCKEND, CNN NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Dana, when President Biden captured Arizona in 2020, he did so by a little more than 10,000 votes. It was a remarkable feat, not done by a Democrat at the presidential level since President Bill Clinton. And what we're seeing from the Harris campaign is them replicate that winning Biden 2020, multi racial coalition with Latino voters, with Native American voters.

Los Tigres del Norte will perform tonight here in Phoenix. And then Jennifer Lopez is going to join her later on the campaign trail. And she's talking about the opportunity economy, bringing down costs for families in a way that really is tailor made for these voters, talking about it from the base of a family, trying to make that cultural connection with voters. They're also really confident in the strength of this argument over reproductive rights. I'm curious to see, especially in this region, how she talks about this issue of immigration, though. She often doubts on the campaign trail this border enforcement bill that the former president essentially tanked. And how she would sign that if elected, if Congress passed that bill.

But she also has a base of support in a place like this one, from immigrant activist groups who are doing the hard work of door knocking and canvassing for her. They'll be here at this rally, and so she has to message to those communities as well. But in the closing days, what we see from the campaign is a very aggressive effort to bring all of these coalitions together. Dana?

BASH: OK, thank you for that. Let's go over to Alayna, who is in Nevada with Donald Trump.

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: Yeah. Well, Dana, I mean, look, five days left to go. And when I talk to Donald Trump senior advisers, they say, they recognize that right now they're not going to be able to have some grand strategy or card up their sleeve that is going to turn the tide of this race.

Right now, their main focus is on turnout. That's why you're seeing him hit every single battleground. This is his last swing today on the west coast but trying to hit (audio blip) there are -- parties beginning to start to sow the seeds of doubt on the security of this election.

Just yesterday, you saw Donald Trump spending a lot of time, attacking the vote in Pennsylvania. That's just one case where they've filed a lawsuit there. You're seeing this kind of from all of his allies and other high-profile Republicans, already casting doubt on the election. But back to what the Trump campaign is also trying to do.

One thing we've seen really throughout his entire campaign, but they've really ratcheted up in the last couple of days, is kind of this focus on hyper masculinity. We've seen. You know, yesterday he brought out the former NFL player, Brett Favre. He's going to be meeting with Tucker Carlson tonight. He recently did Joe Rogan. J. D. Vance did Joe Rogan yesterday.

I mean, it's very clear that they're still trying to turn out as many, not only men and young men, but also low propensity voters. Try to find and create these first-time voters that they think have never voted before but could actually vote for Donald Trump. So that's one thing.

I think the flip side of this, and I know you talked about this earlier on the panels, was, is their problem with the gender gap. One thing we've seen consistently is they have not solved yet for how to narrow that gender gap. And last night, you heard Donald Trump himself try to solve it, just on stage by saying, I will be women's protector, whether they like it or not.

So, you're seeing some of these themes that they are struggling, these demographics that they're trying to capture kind of coming out in these final days. But again, the main thing for them right now is turnout and trying to get as many people to the polls, because they recognize this election is so close and they need every single vote they can get. Dana?

BASH: Thank you. And of course, we need to repeat over and over to our viewers, despite the fact that Donald Trump is casting doubt on the election. There is no evidence yet that that is the case. And we will be watching and listening for it, but and we will be following that very closely. But definitely, just go and vote and understand that people believe that it is a very secure thing to do.

Thank you so much to both of you. Thanks for all your terrific work. We'll be checking back. Coming up. It is turnout time. As you just heard, Donald Trump is betting that the richest man in the world can deliver a ground game, he needs to win in the biggest swing state of all. Stay with us.

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[12:25:00]

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BASH: Outsourcing the ground game to millionaires and billionaires. Donald Trump is turning the traditional campaign ground game over to outside groups. Elon Musk and his Super PAC, they're taking the lead in getting Trump voters to the polls. That is especially true in critical Pennsylvania. CNN' Phil Mattingly went to the keystone state to see if it's working.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: For Donald Trump, the path to victory on election day runs through Western Pennsylvania.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's not TV ads, it's not signs and billboards. It's that face to face

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Which makes Rico Elmore a critical piece of the Trump campaign's unorthodox and in the view of some Republicans, risky voter turnout strategy.

MATTINGLY: One of the things that's been hard to figure out in terms of ground game in this state is there's just a massive Republican groups, right? Its most important state of the election, I think were the keystone.

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