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Inside Politics
Lutnick: "There's Going to be no Recession in America"; Trump on Potential Recession: "Who Knows?"; Trump Shares Articles About High Egg Prices; Secretary of State Rubio Arrives in Saudi Arabia for Meeting with Top Ukrainian Officials; Incoming Canadian PM: "America is not Canada, The Americans Want Our Resources, Our Water, Our Land and Our Country". Aired 12-12:30p ET
Aired March 10, 2025 - 12:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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DANA BASH, CNN HOST: Today on "Inside Politics" an economic powder kick. Donald Trump was elected to end inflation, but economist fear his policies could do the opposite and even possibly, possibly trigger a recession. The president himself admits it's possible, but that it's for the country's greater good.
Plus, hostility from the great White North. Canada's next Prime Minister is warning that President Trump wants, to, quote, destroy their way of life, raising the critical question, is America shifting for them from Franco Fauci?
And touchdowns, free throws and fly balls, top Democrats are in full play by play mode as they flood the zone on sports radio and podcast. It's their new playbook to try to meet the voters where they are. I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and "Inside Politics". First up, who knows? That's how President Trump is responding to questions about a potential recession, and his choice of words inject new fear and uncertainty into the economy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARIA BARTIROMO, FOX BUSINESS ANCHOR: Are you expecting a recession this year?
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. Of course, he has a day who knows? All I know is this. We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, and we're going to become so rich you're not going to know where to spend all that money.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Here's the thing, on the recession, the president is completely contradicting his own Commerce Secretary.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Should Americans brace for a recession?
HOWARD LUTNICK, COMMERCE SECRETARY: Absolutely not. There's going to be no recession in America. What there's going to be is global tariffs are going to come down.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Howard Lutnick is a billionaire who made his fortune on Wall Street, but investors seem to understandably be more focused on what the president is saying. The DOW is down nearly 500 points. The NASDAQ is having an even worse day, down by about 3 percent.
CNN's Matt Egan joins me now. You've been digging into this whole question of a potential recession and I do think we need to be careful not to get over our skis on this. Obviously, nobody wants that. What are the numbers telling us right now?
MATT EGAN, CNN REPORTER: Well, Dana, it's just way too early to know if there's going to be a recession. But what is clear is that yellow lights are flashing in this economy, and it is suddenly really facing significant pressure. We've seen consumer confidence tumble, consumer spending drop, GDP forecasts have been slashed.
And yes, the stock market is really wobbling. You mentioned the DOW off by about 500 points, or around 1 percent today, the NASDAQ falling by over 3 percent. This is partially being driven by uncertainty and chaos over the president's trade strategy.
I talked to a market veteran, Michael Block, and he said, look, investors are having trouble digesting all of this multi-dimensional chess from Trump. He said there might be a method to the madness, but the market is saying, stop confusing us. We don't like it. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley, he told me today that the president's tariff and trade war strategy is starting to backfire on the economy. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL DUDLEY, FORMER PRESIDENT, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK: Tariffs have two effects. One, they push up prices, and two, they push down growth. The Trump Administration is making things worse by this sort of on and on again, off, again approach. So, the uncertainty level is higher than it needs to be.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
EGAN: So, all of this uncertainty and chaos and confusion, it can have a real chilling effect on not just the stock market, but the real economy. When it comes to consumer and business spending, it is fair to say that the risk of a recession has gone up, but it's just too early to say that that's where this is going.
Goldman Sachs put out a note the other day where they up their odds of a recession over the next 12 months, from 15 percent to 20 percent. So, not a dramatically higher move from Goldman Sachs. And they said the real risk right now is policy, but they noted that the president has the ability to change policy, to effectively call an audible if a recession does look imminent.
So, they're kind of saying maybe the president's going to blink here if the economy is really struggling. One last point here, Dana, we should just note that this economy has faced a lot of different pressure points and shocks over the years. There's supply chain chaos, very high inflation, the Fed's war on inflation, and each time, the economy just kept growing. Of course, right now, this is another test facing the economy, and it's largely being driven by chaos out of Washington.
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BASH: Yeah, the president has the ability to call an audible. I think we are very well aware that he can call audibles. Does it a lot. Thank you so much, Matt. Appreciate it.
EGAN: Thanks Dana.
BASH: And I'm joined by a very talented group of reporters here at the table with me today, CNN's Manu Raju, Andrew Egger of "The Bulwark" and Nia-Malika Henderson of CNN and Bloomberg. I want to just kind of set the table, so to speak, for this conversation by actually looking at what Matt Drudge said on his website today. Big letters, as is, per usual, cracks form in economy. Recession risks rise, markets on edge, Trump Slump.
MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Look, it's the uncertainty. It's not just the chaos. It's the uncertainty for businesses to plan. It's questions about whether this will impact hiring of these tariffs go into effect, and if they do go into effect, how, when that affects the price of goods and will consumers actually pull back?
And a lot of this is just, you know, Trump's impulsiveness, and of course, that's been that has been his, really his style since he came into the political scene, but it's been a different than what we've seen in the beginning of this administration, which they have been methodical and lot of their policies in the early several weeks here.
But on the tariffs issue in particular, it's one day he's going forward. The next day is coming back. What does it mean for the economy? And will that ultimately lead to the recession is the big question?
BASH: Yeah. And Nia, that really is a - Manu just summed it up so well, is we know, and we have said this every time we have talked about tariffs, which is kind of every day over the past several weeks, is that in his heart of hearts, he loves tariffs.
And so, it seems as though what has been happening is that he wants to do it. He goes forward with it, and then he sees the reaction to the stock market. Maybe his Commerce Secretary goes out, or at least tells him, please, you just got to do something about this. My phone is ringing off the hook, and probably the president is too. So, he pulls back a little bit. And the irony is that the uncertainty
over the policy that he wants to put in place, which could hurt the economy, is making the potential policy that would hurt even more damaging.
NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah, you know, he postponed this latest round of tariffs with Mexico and Canada. Are
they actually going to be put in place April 2nd? As he has now said, oh, this time, it's really. Other thing is, there's no sense of like, why he's doing the tariffs right?
He does -- he does imagine that there'll be money flowing in the streets if he does these tariffs, which seems like it would be a good idea, but, of course, that's not true. But then there's, oh, is it about fentanyl, right? And so, if it's about fentanyl, at some point, can these countries actually do what he needs them to do, so that there won't be tariffs?
Or is it about immigration? That's the other thing. Is it about drugs? Is it about any number of these issues that he keeps sort of moving the ball on. So, nobody's able to say, OK, we've met your demands on this so they won't be any tariffs. Instead, it's this daily sort of back and forth about tariffs, or maybe not tariffs.
BASH: Yeah. And let's just go back to basics. And the basics during the campaign, a big part of why he was elected was because of the crisis of affordability in this country, people just are having trouble. We're having trouble and still and still are.
Let's just look, first of all, at how people viewed the economy when they went to the ballot box. Look, I mean -- of the people who said the economy was important, and that was most people. 70 percent voted for Donald Trump, and it's something that he pushed on the campaign trail, the notion of inflation under Joe Biden.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: We will end inflation and make America affordable again. It's not affordable. The prices are so high they've never seen anything we looked at a lot of the people at the checkout counter, how are the prices that they're all going, it's terrible. That's all over the country. This happened because of Biden and Kamala.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: OK, so that was then, remember, this is the argument that he was making. Understandably, voters bought it, because they're not feeling great. They went to the ballot box. Voted for Donald Trump, those of whom -- those people who were voting on the economy, and now look at what he is saying on social media.
He reposted, I should say something from Charlie Kirk. It was an article, and the headline is, shut up about egg prices. Trump is saving consumers millions. Boy, it's a good thing he put that after he won, because that's not exactly a bumper sticker Argument. ANDREW EGGER, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, THE BULWARK: Yeah, no kidding. It's interesting, because this is essentially the strategy that he said he was going to pursue all along in order to lower prices. And we know this is a core element of Donald Trump's political philosophy, is that -- is that America has essentially been leaving tons of money on the table for decades by embracing free trade.
By not -- you know pursuing these sorts of protectionist policies. But I think where you're really seeing the grinding gears now is that these are -- these are two core things for Trump, is that he thinks tariffs are great.
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He thinks that they are our path to new prosperity. But also, he is extremely sensitive to the line pointing down. I mean, that's a that's a core branding thing for him, is like, well, how can I continue to make this argument when the stock markets in the red every day, and so that's why you're seeing some of this scrambling that we're seeing.
RAJU: What's wrong when you talk to Republicans about this, because they generally hate tariffs, and they generally hate, or do support free trade, but now they've shifted dramatically because of Trump. They're trying to take a more holistic argument about this, and yes, prices are going to maybe increase, but then let's wait for Trump's policies to take effect, less fewer regulations than is sweeping tax overhaul to take effect.
But here's the problem, tariffs are going to impact perhaps immediately. If they go -- actually go into effect, it's going to take months to get a tax overhaul done. People may not feel the effects until next tax year, and changing the regulatory environment is a year's long project. So, the question is, will voters be willing to sustain those high prices if these tariffs actually go into effect?
BASH: Let's listen -- you mentioned members of Congress. Let's listen to what Republican Nicole Malliotakis said on CNN this morning about all this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. NICOLE MALLIOTAKIS (R-NY): There's been talk about a recession for well over the past year. This is something that has been a threat going back to the Biden Administration. You can't disregard the damage that the Biden Administration did to our economy with their regulations, with their inflationary spending.
You want to blame President Trump for some he's been there for one month. He never imposed those tariffs that he said he would on Mexico and Canada. In fact, he's getting very good outcomes and responses.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: So, Nia the question is, how long is the shelf life for blaming the guy before?
HENDERSON: Yeah, you know -
RAJU: Four years.
(CROSSTALK)
BASH: As long as he wants.
HENDERSON: Four years, I think that's right. I mean, Donald Trump is going to blame Biden probably forever. He's also trying to convince Americans that there's -- they can undergo sort of patriotic pain, right? You might pay more at the pump, you might pay more for groceries, but it's worth it in the end, because -- you know manufacturing jobs will come back eventually, maybe in, I don't know, four or five years.
So -- you know, Trump is somebody who's used to creating his own reality. He convinced millions of voters that the 2020 election was stolen from him, and that there's some deep state out to get him. None of that is true, but he was able to successfully do that. So that's what he's trying to do again. Repetition has worked for him. Repetition of lies -
BASH: And the reality he's trying to create now is that things are not as expensive as they think they are.
HENDERSON: Yeah. I think, or even if you pay its sort of worth it, because something in the end, is going to be greater. The country is going to be greater. Prices will be lower. Immigration won't be a problem. Fentanyl won't be a problem. All of these problems won't exist. Maybe six months to a year from now, that's what he's telling voters. We'll see if they believe him. I mean, if you look at the data, they are willing to give him some time -
BASH: Yeah.
HENDERSON: -- something like months to a year. So that's -- the that's the window.
BASH: -- rainbows and unicorns maybe -
(CROSSTALK)
HENDERSON: Yes -
BASH: All right, everybody stand-by coming up, R-E-S-P-E-C-T that is what Justin Trudeau's successor wants the U.S. to learn.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARK CARNEY, CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER-ELECT: My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect.
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[12:15:00] BASH: Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, just landed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where he will be meeting with a delegation from Ukraine. This is the first meeting between top Ukrainian and American officials since the Oval Office blow up 10 days ago. CNN's Alex Marquardt is live in Saudi Arabia. So, the Secretary of State spoke to reporters on the flight on his way to where you are. What did he say?
ALEX MARQUARDT, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, Dana, he did just touch down just moments ago, and in speaking with the reporters, he said generally that he's hopeful that this meeting tomorrow with the Ukrainian Delegation will go well, but it's clear that he wants specifics on what they are thinking in terms of the difficult decisions, he says the concessions that they will have to make.
He says they will not be in that room with poring over maps, drawing lines at a very granular level in terms of what say territorial concessions they could come up with. But he does want to hear from the Ukrainian Delegation that they are ready for a peace deal and what they think it will take to get there.
Of course, we have heard criticism from the Trump Administration that Zelenskyy and his top advisers have not expressed enough of a willingness over a peace deal, and that's why we have seen this halt in military assistance this halt in intelligence sharing. The president, President Trump said yesterday that the intelligence assistance could come back up online soon.
But in his remarks just moments ago, Secretary Rubio says it is key in this meeting to hear from the Ukrainians what they intend to do in order for that military assistance to come back. Now there's also a question of a ceasefire. This is something the Ukrainians are likely to put to the Americans.
President Zelenskyy has talked about ending the bombing in the sky of civilian and energy targets, the ending of the naval fighting in the Black Sea. Secretary Rubio saying, yes, the cessation of hostilities is a good possible first step, of course, major question whether the Russians would go along with that.
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But this is a key step, a major step, Dana, in getting this relationship and these conversations back on track after that historically disastrous meeting in the Oval Office two weeks ago, Dana.
BASH: Alex, thank you so much. Appreciate that. And coming back to North America, best friends forever --
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CARNEY: The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country. Think about it. If they -- if they succeeded, they would destroy our way of life. We didn't ask for this fight. We didn't ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves. So, the Americans, they should make no mistake in trade, as in -- Canada will win.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: That was Mark Carney, the soon to be Canadian Prime Minister. And what you just saw and listened to is the latest example of how a once unbreakable bond between the U.S. and Canada has fractured as President Trump advances his trade war against both Canada and Mexico. Tariffs on Canada are expected to go into effect on April 2nd. My panel is back now. Nia, you know, Canada has it in him let's see how he takes it --
HENDERSON: Yeah -
BASH: as he takes over?
HENDERSON: -- I think that's right. I mean, you saw over the last many weeks, Donald Trump talking about Canada as the 51st state, talking about Trudeau as -- Governor Trudeau, that's become sort of his moniker. And now this is a new person.
What's been interesting is that Trump has brought Trudeau's party back to life, right? There was this really sort of resurgent interest in a more conservative party, and now you have in this person, somebody who's really benefiting from this fight with Donald Trump, who knew that America would want to be at war with the Canadians, but apparently, it's based on a South Park movie.
(CROSSTALK)
BASH: OK? So, bring us up to speed on that, and if the South Park guys are listening, you come on anytime --
(CROSSTALK)
RAJU: I was -
BASH: -- and talk about it.
RAJU: -- going to vote in Canada. And that's essentially - you know look, it was interesting, is how the rhetoric also from the new incoming Canadian Prime Minister much different than what we're seeing from -- you know, our Mexican partners, Claudia Sheinbaum on the way she has approached Donald Trump -
BASH: Yeah. That's true.
RAJU: -- which is a little bit -- you know, obviously what we've seen other leaders do reach try to softer rhetoric, if you will. This is we're going right at him, but, but Nia is absolutely right. The domestic politics in Canada are absolutely fascinating. It has led to this nationalistic fervor within Canada that has boosted the Trudeau's Party and potentially could ultimately undercut what Donald Trump wants to achieve here.
But if he's talking tough, the new incoming leader on Donald Trump, I doubt Donald Trump is going to back off. He wants people to talk nicely to him, for him to back off, but the rhetoric will only be ratcheted up.
BASH: Inside Canadian politics.
RAJU: Yes.
BASH: Let's look a little bit at the U.S. Canada alliance, the Economic Alliance and the bilateral trade is about $2.5 billion in goods and services a day 400,000 people cross between countries every day. The U.S. has maintained the official presence and official presence in Canada since 1833 and I didn't actually realize this, that they share the world's longest undefended border.
EGGER: Yeah, and it's the bottom line there is that there is a lot of opportunity for Canada to channel this nationalistic fervor into making Americans feel real political pain. I mean, there's no corresponding anti-Canada faction in the U.S. that also wants to get the bit in their teeth and really go sock it to those guys, right?
And we, just by and large, U.S. consumers, just want to see lower prices -- you know, a strong economy, and now that we are kind of creating with our own political moves, this new guerrilla faction that's just determined to stop that from happening for our people, in order to try to shake loose some kind of change at the top level.
The other weird thing about it is just the fact that, like you say, Canada and Mexico are pursuing such different strategies. And you can see Trump react to those in real time, right where he is sort of showering praise on Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum meanwhile, getting angrier and angrier at Canadian leadership, while supposedly the pretext for all these things is drugs coming over the borders and things like that. So, as you say, it's definitely a risky strategy if the goal is to get Trump to back off.
BASH: So, on that note, now is the -- it's time for our truth sandwich portion of the lunch hour, if you will. And we're going to start by referring to what Nia was talking about earlier, and that is the whole question of fentanyl.
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And whether or not that is one of the really big problems coming from Canada. It is a very big problem in the U.S., but not from Canada. Let's though, listen to what some of the Republicans, including in the president's administration, are claiming.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KEVIN HASSETT, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL DIRECTOR: We launched a drug war, not a trade war, and it was part of a negotiation to get Canada and Mexico to stop shipping fentanyl across our borders.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You're saying this really is about fentanyl.
KRISTI NOEM, HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: It really is about fentanyl. It really is. And I think the president obviously wants a strong economy. Obviously wants better trade deals as well. But this is about fentanyl.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Now, again, it is a problem in the United States. It is a problem when it comes to the southern border of the United States, where it's coming in much more from Mexico. But when it comes to Canada, check this out. So, the total pounds seized of fentanyl, 21 almost 22,000 pounds the northern border, 43 pounds. So, it's less than 1 percent of the very dangerous and scary fentanyl problem. And that's the reality.
HENDERSON: Yeah. And the thing is, you have seen Canada make some moves around this. Again, they're barely part of the problem. It is a big problem. Mexico is a really big part of the problem, and they too. Claudia Sheinbaum, even before Trump was in office, wanted to go aggressively at some of these drug cartels.
She's doing that. You saw them cooperate in trying to have some of these drug warlords prosecuted. So, there is something happening with this. The question, I think, for Trump is, will it be enough? Or they're just going to be sort of shifting explanations for why these tariffs are happening or aren't happening?
RAJU: I mean, they could say it's a drug war, not trade war, all they want.
BASH: Right.
RAJU: But it is a trade war.
BASH: Yeah, it is.
RAJU: People will feel it. And, you know, I'll be interested in -- you know, from my perch, watching how some of those members from northern states in Maine, the Senator Susan Collins, is very concerned about the impacts on tariffs impacting the Maine economy. Wisconsin House members are concerned about the impact on the agriculture.
BASH: Even Ron Johnson.
HENDERSON: Yeah.
RAJU: Ron Johnson is concerned, Chuck Grassley from the Iowa members, and how it will impact their farmers. So, this is - yes, they could say drug war, that could be their argument to try to ease concerns, but people start feeling it, and that's going to change the dynamic.
EGGER: And it's important to note too, that one of the reasons that Canada is so upset and aggrieved over this whole thing is that even though they were a small part of the problem last year, they had already also taken significant steps to try to show Donald Trump they were doing more to police the small bit of fentanyl that was coming over there, over their border.
I mean, CBP data for January had a fraction of a single pound of fentanyl seized. I think I saw the size of a AAA battery was the amount of fentanyl that was seized at that border in January. And then on the back of that Trump ratchets up the trade war. So, they're like, what do you want us to do? What's the standard you want us to meet?
BASH: Yeah. All right, everybody, don't go anywhere, because up next the race to avoid a shutdown. The Trump endorsement does not mean it's a done deal. So, Manu is here, because the big question is whether Republicans can get the votes, stand by.
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