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At Least 51 Dead, 27 Campers Still Missing In Texas Floods; Texas Governor Abbott: "We Will Be Relentless" In Locating Every Victim. Dozens Killed in Deadly Texas Flooding; Democrats Slam GOP Over Trump's Bill as Midterms Loom Large; Elon Musk Pledged a New Party, Could He Make an Impact. Aired 8-9a ET

Aired July 06, 2025 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:30]

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning and welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. I'm Jeff Zeleny, in today for Manu Raju.

We begin with the devastating flash flooding in central Texas that has killed at least 51 people, including at least 15 children.

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Boris Sanchez, on the ground here in Hunt, Texas, where what we're seeing is simply staggering. Right now, rescue crews are still trying to find people who are missing, including 27 girls from a summer camp overrun by floodwaters, just a short distance from where we are right now. It's actually right behind me, Camp Mystic.

It's been over 48 hours since floods began ravaging this community. The Guadalupe River, which we're right next to you, may be hearing it overflowing with multiple months of rain in just a matter of hours, reaching upwards of nearly 2 -- 24 feet. The devastation what we're seeing on the ground is just awful. The all girls camp here in Kerr County, Camp Mystic, hit especially hard. The desperate search for these campers now continues this morning. Governor Greg Abbott says this is a 24/7 operation and that crews will not stop searching, Jeff, until everyone is found.

ZELENY: And so far, authorities say more than 850 people in Kerr County have been rescued and brought to safety. The Trump administration is sending resources to help Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is now in Texas, where she has pledged federal support for those affected.

Boris, walk us through what you're seeing on the ground today as the sun is rising there in Texas.

SANCHEZ: Yeah, Jeff, just on the way in this morning, the damage is fairly widespread for several miles. As we were driving in. We could see homes and businesses that were scarred, as well as an immense amount of debris overturned vehicles, trees blocking roadways. This is an expansive sight of devastation. As a result of these floods. And here at Camp Mystic, again, this is right on the Guadalupe River,

the river going up something like 24 feet in a matter of a few hours. And you can see in the distance the debris field, the high watermark where the trees are more than a dozen feet off the ground. There is a ton of just detritus strewn about. There are vehicles as well as what appear to be clothing, perhaps belonging to the campers here.

On top of that, you have some of the actual cabins behind me where we understand that some of the camp counselors broke through windows as the floodwaters were rising to get young kids out, kids as young as 9, 10 years old here and again, Jeff, some 27 people are still missing just from Camp Mystic.

ZELENY: Boris, obviously, the Guadalupe River, there is a base of limestone, I'm told. So that is one of the reasons that the water moved so quickly and had no place to go. As authorities continue their effort today, is this still a rescue mission or has this shifted into more of a recovery mission?

SANCHEZ: We've got no indication from state officials that this is now moved to a recovery mission. You heard there, Governor Greg Abbott saying that this was a 24/7 operation, that this was going to continue until they had accounted for everyone who had gone missing.

At this stage, its difficult to get an exact number of how many remain unaccounted for, because not only do you have a sprawling number of campsites like this one, but you also have RV parks where we've heard witnesses say that they saw entire families washed away, but also folks who were visiting the area from out of town, folks that were here to enjoy the Fourth of July on the Guadalupe River.

So, getting an exact number is going to be difficult. But as of right now, our understanding is that this remains a search and rescue operation, Jeff.

ZELENY: And, Boris, we are hearing stories about the girls at Camp Mystic there in Texas Hill Country, and the victims who are still missing. What are we learning about them today from their families?

SANCHEZ: Yeah, just heart wrenching stories, Jeff. Again, these are young women. This is an all-girls camp, some as young as 9 to 10 years old.

CNN has confirmed, from the parents of four campers that their daughters were killed. Janie Hunt is one of them. She's just nine years old. Sarah Marsh is another. Renee Smajjstrla is another.

We also spoke with the family of Lila Bonner, who's nine years old.

[08:05:02]

Her family, her parents tell us that they are devastated right now that they are dealing with unimaginable grief, but they remain praying for others, not only here at Camp Mystic, but across Central Texas, who are hoping to be found alive. Obviously, many are still missing, Jeff. I understand that we actually have Jason Pack with us to talk about

some of these efforts. He's a former FEMA official and retired FBI special agent. He joins us now live. Jason, thank you so much for sharing part of your morning with us.

You have a lot of experience in scenarios like this, emergency situations. Can you give us an idea of what it's like to have such a wide range of different factors that are impacting search and rescue? On top of that, a forecast that is looking like a lot more rain is on the way.

JASON PACK, FORMER FEMA EXTERNAL AFFAIRS OFFICER: Good morning, Boris.

Yes, there's a lot of moving parts to this particular response and the way responders do that to take you inside of an emergency operations center is something called the incident command system. And that's the way, whether you're a fed or whether you're a local responder or a state person, that you can organize this chaos.

So as a part of the incident command system, what's called emergency support functions exist within these command centers. Today, the operational priorities are set overnight while people are sleeping in. The rescues were ongoing. People who are planning today's activities and creating operational priorities probably are concentrating on what's called emergency support function eight, which is search and rescue.

So those are one of the most important priorities right now. As you heard from Governor Abbott, and as you're reporting earlier, search and rescue remains paramount here in a 24/7 operation. To add to that, you want to coordinate the victim reunification and on down the road in the priorities you want to look at the infrastructure damage. But right now, it's all about the people who are missing and the effort and the urgent search to find them.

SANCHEZ: Yeah. Can you give us a sense of what crews might be dealing with as they're out there? Because just watching on the way over here, watching what the river looked like, especially areas close to it, there's just stuff everywhere, all sorts of debris.

PACK: That's right, Boris. It's not just as simple as plugging an address into a GPS and then sending responders there. The flood has changed everything. The topography, the debris has blocked roads.

So, access is going to be important. And figuring out to have that real time ground intelligence about how to get there, kinds of logistical challenges.

So having the right resources in the right places is going to be paramount. We know that the Texas authorities are attacking this by ground. They're attacking this by air and by boat when necessary. So, they have the resources in place. We've seen that direct federal assistance come in the form of the coast guard, and come in form of the army engineers and come in the form of Customs and Border Protection. Those federal assets are there on the ground supporting and

supplementing the local responders who have just an unenviable task out there today.

SANCHEZ: Can you give us a sense, Jason, of what is actually being deployed to your point about resources? It sounds like this is an all hands-on deck approach and what those resources look like, in the sense that there has to be coordination between federal and local officials.

PACK: That's right. Not only are the search and rescue equipment coming in, teams coming in to relieve them. These folks have been going, looking for their neighbors for almost 72 hours now, a little bit less than that.

So, they're going to tire out. And so, the reinforcements are coming back in from neighboring states and federal assets. Those are the search and rescue ones.

You have sheltering operations going on, too. So, the voluntary organizations active in disasters, we call those they're coming in to help set up shelters. Normally, you'd have services in church. The faith is being put into action. Today, several churches are open to shelters there.

So that's going to be an important part of the response and recovery effort. And then you also have logistics. How do you get fuel to these helicopters? How do you get food to the hungry and water? All those sorts of logistics, logistical questions are being answered by the Texas Department of Emergency Management in coordination with FEMA, who does have an office there in Denton, Texas.

SANCHEZ: Jason Pack, so great to get your expertise on this. Thank you so much for joining us.

Jeff, I'll send it back to you in the nation's capital.

ZELENY: Boris, thank you.

Now let's get straight to CNN meteorologist Tyler Mauldin.

Tyler, walk us through where the flooding threat stands right now. What is the forecast at this hour?

TYLER MAULDIN, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yeah. So, as of right now, Jeff, we do have a flood watch in effect for this area until later this afternoon. No active warnings for the Kerrville area and the Guadalupe River specifically.

[08:10:04]

We do have an active flash flood warning, though, for the city of Mason. So please take precautions there.

We have radar showing rainfall in the area as well. Light to moderate rainfall at the moment, but anything that we see is just going to exacerbate any issues that first responders are dealing with at the moment.

This rain is going to taper off, comes right back later this afternoon, Jeff, during the heating of the day when temperatures reach the low to mid 90s, and then we hit repeat on Monday. It's not until Tuesday, Jeff, that we begin seeing the rainfall taper off and some drier air come in over the next 24 to 48 hours, roughly 2 to 4 inches. So, nothing like what we saw on Friday.

It's also important to note, Jeff, that the -- we're no longer at flood stage with the Guadalupe River. We're below that. So, this will just impact the first responders and their activities right now.

ZELENY: So, Tyler, we have seen those incredible time lapse videos of the flash floods. How could this happen so quickly?

MAULDIN: Yeah, there are a few things at play here. Number one, you have a system that was just stalled out over central Texas. It wasn't going anywhere. It was tapping on some deep tropical moisture and causing some heavy downpours to fall over the same areas for multiple hours. That's number one.

Number two, we have an exceptional drought here in Central Texas. So, the soil is like concrete. It's not very porous. It doesn't want to absorb that rainfall. So, when that rain did fall, it just sat on top of the ground because it was essentially like concrete.

And we're looking at roughly a foot, approximately a foot of rainfall that fell in a matter of hours in Central Texas. Some areas seeing more than that. So, you take that combination and that just spells a flash flood emergency to the likes that we saw on Friday. To make matters worse, it happened during the overnight hours -- Jeff.

ZELENY: So much devastation, Tyler. Certainly, our prayers are with all of those in Texas as the recovery efforts continue. Thank you very much.

Next, much more on that devastation in Texas and the Trump administration's response.

And later, the battle for the midterm campaign is already kicking off as both parties try to define President Trump's landmark law.

Stay tuned.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:16:38]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED BOY: My brother here, he had to swim out of his cabin.

UNIDENTIFIED BOY: The flood started getting bigger and it was going up to -- we had bunk beds in our cabins and it was going up to the top bunk and we had one choice and we had to swim out of our cabins.

REPORTER: What time was it?

UNIDENTIFIED BOY: It was like we woke up at --

UNIDENTIFIED BOY: Yeah, we had to wake up at like 4:00 a.m. On the way here, we saw all of, like the other camps destroyed, like obliterated.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: The boys are lucky to be alive.

Welcome back to breaking news coverage of the deadly flash flooding here in Texas. You just heard from those boys how they described escaping the flooding from a camp where they were staying.

Yesterday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed a federal disaster declaration, something that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the president would honor. Let's discuss the search and rescue operation, as well as the recovery effort, with former assistant secretary for homeland security and CNN senior national security analyst, Juliette Kayyem.

Juliette, thanks so much for being with us.

Does that emergency declaration that Governor Abbott signed change the federal response we've seen so far? What does it mean for folks on the ground?

JULIETTE KAYYEM, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: So, so right now, it means little in the sense of we're still in the response stage. As Governor Abbott clearly stated, they are going to be out there hoping to find people still alive. So, this is the search and rescue part.

Unfortunately, you know, you know, basically the facts are as they are within the next 24 to 48 hours, that will then switch to essentially, you know, a recovery effort that you're just trying to bring closure to families. They're still are many children missing, try to find the bodies and then begin that closure process, the emergency declaration and the money that will come from it if Trump approves it will assist in what's known as the recovery effort, which is you have to get these communities back up and running, basics like water, electricity, transportation, all of those issues will be in play depending on how much Donald Trump approves.

And we know that there's been a debate and a pushback by this White House and the secretary of homeland security on how much they want to assist states in in the emergency declaration process.

SANCHEZ: And, Juliette, Secretary Noem has highlighted the coast guard coming in to help the search and rescue efforts.

KAYYEM: Yeah.

SANCHEZ: I wonder what other federal resources can be brought in to help. KAYYEM: Well, the Coast Guard is obviously the maritime agency. They

are going to help in a -- in a flash flood and any other -- so that's sort of the body, the people who can help in terms of capacity. Basically FEMA serves as I sort of call it, the sort of 1800 number for the federal government. Any capacity that may be needed in the future, engineers, resources, helicopters, those will be asked by the state through FEMA to get the federal government to deploy those resources.

But as we get to recovery, it's one of the most complicated areas in disaster management because no one really owns it, you know? I mean, there's all these different pieces. The cameras are gone.

[08:20:00]

These communities, these small communities are sort of left sort of without a clear plan of how to move forward. That's where the federal government is honestly most needed, and to help guide in terms of not just money, resources, best practices, engineering expertise and other capacities like that. So, it's the recovery that's going to - that's going to get a little bit more complicated for these small communities.

SANCHEZ: It's going to be an enormous effort, no doubt. I wonder, as the rescue efforts continue, what are you watching for in terms of coordination between the local and the federal response?

KAYYEM: Well, so far, it's really looking as it should look. We have the philosophy or the standard operating practice is the locals respond, the states add capacity, they coordinate. So, they're getting other communities to come help or other states to come help. And then the federal government supports and that in terms of the response, seems to be going as we expected.

It's the recovery and the next steps we simply do not know. Donald Trump has said he wants to get rid of FEMA by the end of hurricane season. We don't know any of the details of what that means.

We also have seen in the past Donald Trump take on governors in a in a sort of more partisan way in terms of what he wants to deliver from them.

So, we don't know what the details look like, given that Donald Trump has sort of said he wants to change this whole framework. So, a lot of us in this space are sort of waiting to understand what the states are going to be expected to do.

But I will say one thing. We already know disaster management is going to look different. Maybe not in this instance in the future. That has to do with some of the debates you're hearing about our weather and weather alert capacities, our science and investment in science, and understanding what is happening to weather and how to protect communities when it comes early alert systems and of course investments in the Department of Homeland Security that are very much focused on border and not on emergency management. We already -- we already are anticipating those changes, both from DOGE, and then, of course, the comprehensive budget bill that just passed.

SANCHEZ: Juliette Kayyem, thank you so much for the perspective. Appreciate your expertise.

KAYYEM: Thank you.

SANCHEZ: Jeff?

ZELENY: Boris, thank you.

And next, more on President Trump's response to the devastation in Texas as teams on the ground search for survivors.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:26:58]

ZELENY: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is on the ground in Texas to assist with the search and rescue operations, as the Trump administration responds to the tragic flooding. And there's a lot to unpack about what comes next.

Joining me now on this Sunday morning are NPR's Tamara Keith, Laura Barron-Lopez with the "PBS NewsHour", and "The Washington Post's" Marianna Sotomayor.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for coming in.

So, on this very tragic morning in Texas, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is on the ground, and she immediately said President Donald Trump will honor the federal disaster declaration signed by Texas Governor Greg Abbott.

We've covered so many disasters over the years with different presidents. What did you take away from the secretary saying that the president will honor this request?

TAMARA KEITH, NPR SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: It's not clear exactly what that means. It hasn't cleared through the president just yet. He hasn't -- I just checked my email. The disaster declaration hasn't come through. Often these are pro forma. They come through with ease.

Often, presidents approve them even before the disaster hits. But in this case, it was a surprise. It was a flash flood that came out of nowhere. And so they weren't able to, you know, stage resources in advance.

I think there are a lot of questions right now that we don't have answers to about how things are going to work this year, as hurricane season is beginning, as really the summer disaster season gets underway with the changes that the president has talked about and how he wants FEMA to work.

I think there is still a lot of questions about what that means and how it will work, and sort of functionally on the ground, what it will look like.

ZELENY: Marianna, you cover the House of Representatives, obviously. This clearly impacting Texas members as well, including one whose daughters were at this camp.

MARIANNA SOTOMAYOR, CONGRESSIONAL REPORTER, WASHINGTON POST: Yeah. Congressman August Pfluger spent the week here in Washington trying to pass this One Big, Beautiful Bill, only to come home and realize his daughters were missing for a certain amount of time. He has since posted the family has been reunited and actually thanked a number of the federal officials, including FEMA, for trying to help in this effort.

And you know something that I will be watching is how congress responds, because so far, we have seen a Republican-led Congress, both the House and Senate, not send disaster aid out to California after those wildfires earlier this year. Leaders actually saying that they don't trust Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom to be able to actually responsibly use that money. I don't think they will be saying the same thing if and when a disaster relief request comes in.

This is obviously a Republican led state, but they're going to be having to manage a number of things, including Trump's own budget this year, asking Congress to defund FEMA, and also make sure to cut a number of other organizations. The fact that you have a congressman who has been directly affected, I think Congress might be looking at this in a different way than the Trump administration initially was looking at all of these responses.

ZELENY: Obviously, disasters strike red states and blue states, but the response is different and will be worth the noting. There's no question about it.

But we also heard Secretary Noem praise Texas and the state's response, comparing it to other states, not mentioning specifically which ones. But she said this about the response in Texas.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KRISTI NOEM, HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: I do know that the state of Texas is amazing in how it responds to disasters. Not every state is like that. Many states do not do what the people of Texas do. And you are an example to the nation of getting through these difficult times. But also know that you're not alone.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: Laura, what have we heard so far from the White House? And what are you watching for in terms of the administration's response to this?

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, earlier when you talked about whether or not the administration would honor -- that word, that the secretary used -- "honor" a request, I think it's also because we have a history of President Trump in the past, you know, sometimes politicizing after natural disasters like this, depending on which state was hit by a natural disaster, him maybe not sending money to Blue states or states that were -- are led by Democratic governors.

The fact that North Carolina also wanted more funding after their natural disaster, prior to the president taking office and them not getting it once Trump came into office.

So I think that you've seen him being willing to withhold more disaster relief from states when he thinks that maybe his voters aren't in that state, or they -- or they aren't impacted. And there's reporting from the first administration that it was only when he found out that certain voters of his, people who supported him were impacted that then he decided to release more funding.

So again, yes, to your point, I think that the response to Texas may be very different, given that he is going to be facing some pressure from a number of Republicans in Congress to respond to this quickly.

ZELENY: There's nothing like a disaster that really shines the light on why government is needed, why these bureaucracies and infrastructure is needed.

But many questions obviously will be raised about the warning systems and the National Weather Service. But here's what one official with the National Weather Service Employees Union told CNN. He said that while he believes the offices had adequate staffing and resources, the Austin-San Antonio office is missing a warning meteorologist, a role that serves a crucial and direct link between forecasters and emergency managers. Says the vacancies were the result of early retirement incentives offered by the Trump administration.

So as we learn more about this, what do you think this says and what questions do you have about the overall readiness of this government in the wake of DOGE and other cutbacks?

TAMARA KEITH, NPR SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: There is a balance between acts of God and what man and government can do to prevent people from being hurt by storms that come out of nowhere and, you know, massive rushes of water.

I mean, some of this, you know, you can do a lot of after-action reports and you can do a lot of studying, and you can find things that could be done better. But the fact is, the water was still coming and there were still people in the way.

So I do think that it will be important for there to be an analysis done, an independent analysis done, of what went wrong, what went -- what went right because these storms happen and they're likely to happen again. And the way the government responds, the things that they learn, the lessons that are taken away could save lives in the future.

ZELENY: And certainly there's a lot of discussion about research and funding and how much -- how much these storms are actually intensifying. Much more to come on this.

And there's also another big story were following this morning. As President Trump signed his mega bill into law, the curtain opens on the midterm election campaign.

I hit the trail in Iowa, where Democrats are already trying to seize on the moment.

Stay tuned.

[08:34:02]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZELENY: The midterm elections are 16 months away, but President Trump's mega bill is already shaping the competitive races that will help decide control of Congress. The big question: will his legislation help Republicans or Democrats?

This week I went to Iowa, a state that could be the test case for that very question.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ZELENY: The sound of the gavel --

REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA): The motion is adopted.

ZELENY: -- and the stroke of the pen marked the unofficial opening of the 2026 midterm election campaign and the race to define President Trump's landmark legislation.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Look forward, fellows. Look forward and just say what it is because it's the most popular bill ever signed in the history of our country whether you're military or anybody else.

ZELENY: That bold assertion will be litigated over the next year as Republicans fight to maintain control of Congress and Democrats seize on broad public skepticism over the law and try to lead their party back to power.

REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY): After Project 2025 comes Project 2026.

[08:39:48]

ZELENY: The history books are filled with big presidential priorities, leading to big fallout at the ballot box. From Clintons Economic Plan in 1993 to Bush's Social Security Reform effort in 2005, to Obama's health care debate in 2009, and Trump's failed attempt to repeal it in 2017.

The president and his party often paying the price, a point not lost on Trump as he sought to defend the law's sweeping tax cuts and immigration spending.

TRUMP: Not one Democrat voted for us, and I think we use it in the campaign that's coming up the midterms, because we got to beat them.

ZELENY: The president started his victory lap in Iowa, a state that's delivered him big wins in all three of his campaigns. It will now be one of many places to measure political fallout from the law, as Democrats eye two competitive house races and target Republican Senator Joni Ernst, whose comment about Medicaid cuts in the bill --

SEN. JONI ERNST (R-IA): We all are going to die.

ZELENY: -- still reverberates.

At a Democratic rally, these signs spell out the party's argument for how the law benefits the wealthy at the expense of working-class Americans.

JENNIFER KONFRST (D), IOWA HOUSE REPRESENTATIVE: Iowans are fed up, they are angry and they are ready to fight.

ZELENY: Jennifer Konfrst, the Iowa House Democratic leader is running for one of those Congressional seats, now in Republican hands.

What worries you the most about this bill?

KONFRST: It's health care access. That's what I'm hearing everywhere I go. I'll say, what keeps you up at night? It's always, I'm scared I'm going to lose my hospital.

ZELENY: Does the road to a congressional majority for Democrats run right here through this district?

KONFRST: Without question. If you want to get to the majority in Congress, you have to come through the Third Congressional district in Iowa. This is one of the lowest hanging fruits when it comes to flipping a seat.

ZELENY: It's an open question just how competitive races like this will ultimately become in all corners of the country. As Trump takes the leading role in selling the GOP agenda.

TRUMP: I know for a fact they're saying the last two weeks there has never been anything like it as far as winning, winning, winning.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZELENY: So our panel is back now. The president says winning, winning, winning. But Laura, Democrats also see an opportunity in this bill. What are they seizing on, particularly in this massive, sprawling legislation?

BARRON-LOPEZ: Well, as you highlighted there, I mean, it's the impact on health care, the cuts that Americans are potentially going to see. And yes, the Medicaid cuts may not occur until after the midterm elections, but they are going to see some changes more up front, potentially as early as this year, 2025.

Other social safety net cuts like food stamps, they could see some impacts to their ability to access insurance under the Affordable Care Act as early as this year, if not before the midterms next year. And we're already seeing some rural hospitals send out warning signals

saying that they may have to scale back or cut access because of the fact that they're going to be limited in terms of resources and funding they have.

So there's a very real chance Democrats think, that Americans are going to start feeling some of the impacts of these bills, specifically on health care before the midterms, and they're going to try to seize on that.

ZELENY: And the timing is very strategic. The tax cuts are immediate. SNAP and Medicaid is later, obviously by design.

But Marianna, you were up on the Hill for every minute of this legislation. Democrats obviously think they have an opening. But when you look at the roll call vote, so instructive here in terms of who voted no and where these votes came from. Obviously there's just a handful of Republicans serving in districts that Kamala Harris won. There used to be so many crossovers.

But when you take a look at this, obviously, Senator Susan Collins of Maine voted no. Mike Lawler, Republican from New York, voted yes. Brian Fitzpatrick, the Republican from Pennsylvania, also in a Harris district, voted no.

What do you think is the realistic pickup opportunities here for Democrats? I noticed in Hakeem Jeffries' long speech he was reading specifically from some of these districts.

SOTOMAYOR: Yes, he devoted so much time going one by one, just highlighting stories of constituents who are worried about a number of these cuts. And those are going to be the districts that Democrats are targeting. A number of those that Trump won by just a couple of points.

And I will say House Republican leadership has been very honest about the fact that Republicans should have voted for this bill because it was Trump who got Republican lawmakers over the finish line this last election.

So Democrats are cognizant of that. Of course, someone like Brian Fitzpatrick just maybe made Democrats' life a little harder to win that seat. He is incredibly vulnerable. He is representing one of those Kamala Harris districts, as you mentioned.

But then you look at Don Bacon. He's retiring, obviously, in Nebraska. That is a seat where a lot of Republican campaign strategists say it's going to be really hard to find a candidate.

ZELENY: The Blue dot, as they call it.

SOTOMAYOR: Exactly. The Blue dot. He, of course, voted for this bill that could have, you know, influenced him to step aside early. This is not something that his constituents will necessarily reward him for.

But then you have someone like David Valadao out in California. He is the Republican with the highest rate of constituents who actually benefit from Medicaid.

[08:44:52]

SOTOMAYOR: Of course, these cuts, as we mentioned, are going to go into effect after the midterms, but they're already hammering him out there, and it's likely that that's only going to continue.

ZELENY: So clearly this is starting off in a fairly unpopular place. If you look at polling that was taken before the bill was fully formed. But it gives you sort of a baseline here.

There was wide opposition. Washington Post, Pew, Fox News, Quinnipiac -- all agree that there is an uphill climb for Republicans to sell this bill. Tam, as you watch this and we've seen this in history before, I was thinking back to President Obama saying, if you like your doctor, you can keep him.

Is the Trump version of we're not cutting Medicaid. Is that similar to that? Or what do you think the burden and challenge here is for President Trump to sell this?

KEITH: I think that the real challenge is that this starts underwater. If you go and look at the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was President Trump's achievement in 2017, his big tax cut then that stayed unpopular. Democrats were able to characterize that as a tax cut for the rich. But there weren't cuts accompanying it. There weren't cuts to social services and other programs accompanying it.

If you go back to the Bush tax cuts, they were very strategic about not wanting to attach any spending cuts or any pain to the tax cuts.

In this case, Republicans purposely attached cuts that people could ultimately feel to the tax cuts. So you have the benefits of tax cuts that many people won't even notice, because a lot of people don't pay federal income taxes. And then you attach that to a very tangible cut to health care, potentially for people. And it will -- it is a hole that will be difficult to dig out of just simply because of the way the bill was structured.

ZELENY: I mean, we're obviously going to be learning so much more of what is in this bill in the months and years to come.

But food assistance is something that is clear. I spent some time recently at a Missouri food bank, was struck by just the need and seniors and things.

Laura, what is your sense now as the federal government is beginning for the first time to essentially hand off SNAP programs to states that have so many other burdens as well? How real of an impact is this in real life and politically?

BARRON-LOPEZ: I think it will have a significant impact in real life, and a lot of those Republican-led states are going to have to also put forward more of the resources and the funding for these programs, right? Not just for SNAP, but also for Medicaid, for the states that expanded Medicaid as well, because this is one big change, I think, compared to years ago, which is that more Republican-led states expanded Medicaid, expanded these benefits under the social safety net than previously.

So, yes, cutting some of these aspects of the social safety net has been something that Republicans have talked about for a while. I mean, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan talked about this years ago.

But back then there were more Democratic voters that were impacted by it. Now, there are a significant number of Republican voters that are impacted by this.

So I think that that is something that, you know, a number of Republicans like Thom Tillis were warning about saying that this was essentially a betrayal of a number of their voters, that this was something that Republicans promised that they weren't going to do. And then they turned around and they did it.

ZELENY: Obviously, we'll be watching this for the next 16 months, but very quick. What is one or two Senate races that you are watching that you think may determine if Senate Democrats can win back control.

SOTOMAYOR: North Carolina, I mean, Thom Tillis stepping aside and being very honest about the effect that this bill is going to have. I mean, that is absolutely I would say the number one race to watch.

ZELENY: And eyes in Texas as well. If Joni Ernst runs -- so many races to cover.

Guys, thank you very much for being here this morning.

And Elon Musk threatened to launch a new political party if Trump's big bill passed. This weekend he says he's really doing it. Will he follow through and will it make a difference? That's next.

[08:48:59]

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ZELENY: Elon Musk shook up Washington this week when he renewed his attacks on President Trump's landmark legislation and said he'll form a new political party. Just yesterday, telling his followers on X, quote, "You want a new political party? You shall have it. Today, the America Party is formed." Musk said the party would compete next year and take on runaway government spending.

Now, the idea of a new political party is relatively popular with Americans. 58 percent of adults last year thought Democrats and Republicans were doing such a poor job, a third major party was needed.

But with winner-take-all elections and massive amounts of resources needed in a country this size, it remains an uphill climb to be anything more than a spoiler.

And only a few candidates have influenced the electorate in a measurable way, like Ross Perot's run in 1992, where his populist Independent campaign won nearly 20 percent of the vote.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROSS PEROT, FORMER PRESIDENT CANDIDATE: I will not run as either a Democrat or a Republican because I will not sell out to anybody but to the American people, and I will sell out to them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[08:54:45]

ZELENY: To perhaps the most consequential third-party presidential candidate ever, Ralph Nader in 2000, winning more than 2.8 million votes and enough in Florida to tip the balance.

And in 2016, Jill Stein, a perennial Green Party hopeful, winning crucial voters in that tight race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Elon Musk, the world's richest man, might have the resources to start his own America Party, but as history shows, that could be the easy part.

Before we go, if you'd like to help those affected by the tragic flooding in Texas, you can go to CNN.com/impact. There you can be connected to the charities on the ground in Texas. You can also text FLOOD to 707070.

That's all for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. You can follow me on Instagram or X @JeffZeleny. And follow the show @INSIDE POLITICS. If you ever miss an episode, you can catch up wherever you get your podcasts. Search for INSIDE POLITICS.

Up next, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER AND DANA BASH". Dana's guests include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Texas Congressman Joaquin Castro.

Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.

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