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Inside Politics
Official: Hostage Released Expected To Start Monday Morning; Today: Trump Heads To Mideast As Israel Awaits Hostage Release; As Shutdown Pain Grows, Is GOP Feeling Pressure To Talk? Interview with Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA); GOP Has no Plans to Negotiation with Dems Despite Pressure; On the Political Radar. Aired 8-9a ET
Aired October 12, 2025 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[08:00:23]
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(MUSIC)
MANU RAJU, CNN HOST (voice-over): Art of the deal.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Everybody wants this deal to happen.
RAJU: With hostages expected any moment, will President Trump's visit bring about a lasting peace?
Plus, pain points. White House follows through on layoffs.
TRUMP: It will be a lot of people, all because of the Democrats.
RAJU: So, is Congress ready to stop pointing fingers and end the shutdown?
REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY): Mike Johnson's strategy is to keep House Republicans on vacation.
REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: Emotions are high. People are upset.
RAJU: One Republican breaking with his party's approach. Congressman Kevin Kiley, joins me live.
And crunch time.
REP. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-NJ), GUBERNATIONAL CANDIDATE: Shame on you, sir.
JACK CIATTARELLI (R), NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: Shame on you.
RAJU: Races tighten with just three weeks left. Why are new controversies making Democrats sweat?
INSIDE POLITICS, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.
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(END VIDEOTAPE)
RAJU (on camera): Good morning and welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. I'm Manu Raju.
It is a historic day in the Middle East where the hostages who have been held in Gaza since Hamas terrorist attack two years ago are expected to be released in a matter of hours, as displaced Gazans return home amid a humanitarian crisis and aid trucks begin to stream into the coastal territory.
President Trump, who helped broker the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, heads to the region later today.
And there are still lingering questions about how long this deal will last and what it could ultimately lead to. But for now, a glimmer of hope in a war-ravaged region.
Let's begin this morning with CNN's Clarissa Ward, who is live for us in Tel Aviv.
So, Clarissa, what do we know right now about the release of these hostages? And how will the next couple of days play out?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: So, Manu, we're getting a better sense now of what this release might look like. Gal Hirsch, who is the coordinator for all hostage related affairs here in Israel, has said that the release will likely take place Monday morning. The speculation is that it will happen before President Trump's arrival, which is supposed to be at about 9:00 a.m. local time.
So many now anticipating that we could start to see the release of those 20 hostages who are believed to still be alive, and the 28 hostages who are deceased sometime, will really any time from midnight local time. I should add that Gal Hirsch also said, crucially, and this is something Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had already laid the groundwork for, that it is now understood that all 28 -- the remains of all 28 of the hostages who are deceased are not expected to be released at this time. There will be a longer and more protracted effort to locate all of their remains, but certainly a significant number of them expected to be part of this release.
Now, initially, we had heard that they would be released in one group. Now we are getting the sense that there may be several different groups in several different locations. Obviously, Israeli hospitals preparing for their arrival. The Israeli public, also with its heart and its throat desperately anticipating this much waited for moment. And in Gaza, crucially, finally, hundreds of trucks of aid starting to pour in as part of this agreement, an aid surge was an integral component. Israel saying 600 trucks will be allowed in every day.
But we've been speaking to a number of different organizations, Manu. They tell us that really is just a drop in the ocean of what is required. Gaza is facing a historic humanitarian crisis. Some 55,000 children suffering from acute malnutrition, according to a recent report by the lancet medical journal. Not to mention the scale of the devastation people returning now in the hundreds of thousands to their homes. Many of them, of course, no longer exist -- Manu.
RAJU: Clarissa, thank you so much for that report, live for us from Tel Aviv.
And joining me now is Brett McGurk, a CNN global affairs analyst who arranged previous hostage releases as the is the White House's former Middle East coordinator.
Brett, nice to see you this morning.
BRETT MCGURK, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Good morning.
RAJU: And I want to talk to you about just the mechanics of how this will play out. And just on your screen, we were showing this earlier. The hostages who -- there are at least 20 who are believed to be alive in that picture, about 48 there, many of them no longer with us. So, the remains will be transported as part of this release. But, Brett, you've handled these situations in the past.
[08:05:01]
What are the mechanics --
MCGURK: Yeah.
RAJU: -- you're looking like here, and how do you expect that to play out?
MCGURK: So, Manu, so what's happening right now is you're hearing different things from Hamas. They have different channels. They like to play up the drama in this sort of situation. What time, when, where, and it can be incredibly frustrating and nerve wracking in these hours. So that's probably what's going on.
At the same time, Israel is getting ready to receive the hostages and the ICRC, the International Committee of the Red Cross, which actually does the handover, is in communication through Qatar and Egypt with Hamas, exactly where they need to be to do the handover and transfer into Israel. That's what's happening right now.
What happened in the January deal, which I was involved in, remember Hamas did those grotesque displays of parading the hostages, which was really horrific. I understand there's an agreement here for that not to happen. I hope that doesn't happen, but that's basically what's going on right now. My understanding exactly as Clarissa said, probably overnight, our time, we'll see the hostages released and all 20 is my understanding. All 20 will be safely in Israel.
It's a historic day, as you said. It's an emotional day. These hostages have been many of them in tunnels for 740 days, almost nothing like it. I just to put a human face on this Evyatar David. He is a hostage that was 22 at a music festival, festival taken hostage. When we did the January deal in February, Hamas brought him in a car and videotaped this for him to watch the release of his friends and then brought him back into a tunnel.
Last month, Hamas put out a video of Evyatar digging his own grave in a tunnel, totally emaciated. We will now see Evyatar freed. That's just one of these stories.
RAJU: Yeah.
MCGURK: It's -- so for the hostages, for the families, unbelievably horrific. But what an incredible day.
RAJU: Yeah.
MCGURK: And it's an emotional day.
RAJU: Is there any concern that Hamas may renege on this agreement in any way?
MCGURK: Look, I think what's happened here in the last really three weeks is a complete consensus among all Arab and Muslim majority countries on Hamas. Enough. They are totally isolated. The 12-day war in June on Iran was a strategic game changer. Hamas has really nowhere to move.
So, I think we will get the hostages out. I am concerned, as Clarissa said, Hamas might try to retain some remains. Hamas says we have to look for them. I find that very highly questionable. They know the remains are valuable bargaining chips. We know Hamas wants the remains back of Mohammed Sinwar and Yahya Sinwar.
So, if they're going to play games, I think it will be with the remains, which is also a very kind of grim piece of this puzzle.
RAJU: We'll have -- we'll have to watch to see if that happens. The implications of that. I do want to ask you about the hurdles ahead, because this is phase one of the deal. Just the next steps in the Gaza plan so our viewers can see on their screen -- disarmament of Hamas as part of the future governance of Gaza and a comprehensive end to the war, all huge complications.
I mean, how do you see the hurdles ahead and the next phase playing out?
MCGURK: Look, I give -- again, President Trump, Steve and Jared put this together.
RAJU: And because Jared Kushner.
MCGURK: It builds on a lot of work that we had done. We had the three-phase deal in place earlier this year. But there is a roadmap here. It's going to be extremely hard. This is the Middle East. Nobody should be optimistic.
But let me say, it's very important. A key part of this deal, if you want to understand it, there's a map of Gaza of where Israeli forces will be. And basically, 53 percent of Gaza will be Israeli forces controlling that area until an international force seeds in, as you set up the interim political security structures to move forward, that's very important because Hamas never would have accepted that a year ago, even six months ago.
And it gives a lot of leverage going forward, even after we have this hostage release today.
Here's what I'm looking for. Three things.
Number one, how are the hostages returned? Do we see these grotesque ceremonies from Hamas? That would be a bad sign.
Number two, getting the political interim political security structures in place. There will be meeting in Egypt tomorrow with leaders from all around the region, with the president about that. We need countries to contribute forces, resources, the interim political structure has to be set up. That meeting tomorrow will be about that as well.
And then very importantly, Manu, the humanitarian reconstruction, this has to be an international effort. I helped lead the counter ISIS campaign, and we had a global coalition of 80 countries to help in like Mosul to help restore and reconstruct Mosul.
Now, ten years later, that's actually happened. It's extraordinary. But you need to build a global coalition for this. And I think the president has the wind at his back to do it.
RAJU: What about the future of Gaza? What happens if Hamas decides to try to cling on to power there?
MCGURK: So, they will. In fact, what's happening now in those areas? Hamas is coming out of the tunnels, and they are intimidating and even killing Palestinians to say we are going to remain in charge. I tell you what, this has been the thing from day one of this awful tragedy over the last two years. If Hamas clings to power in Gaza, there is no hope here for any sort of political horizon or future. Hamas has to get out of power, not just.
RAJU: And they have not committed anything.
MCGURK: No, they are determined to use Palestinians, kill Palestinians to remain in power in Gaza. It is a huge obstacle. But what's happened here -- and this is why Trump's plan is so important, is that, again, the entire region and countries like Turkey has real influence over Hamas, Indonesia and Pakistan. They have all said enough. Hamas's days in Gaza are over.
So that -- look, that is a huge step forward. And I think the president will stay engaged. You got to stay on it month after month. But look, let's focus today 24 hours. Let's get these hostages out. It's going to be incredibly emotional scene. And of course, all the relief to the Gazans who have been trapped in this awful tragedy, these civilians. RAJU: Yeah.
MCGURK: I thought Jared and Steve Witkoff again spoke yesterday at Hostage Square. They spoke with empathy. They spoke about the next phase. It was exactly the right message.
So, it's hard to be hopeful in this type of situation. But today's a very hopeful day. And again, we just got to get the hostages out and see it through.
RAJU: Yeah. Hopeful historic day with a lot of challenges ahead.
Brett McGurk, thank you so much for your analysis and expertise. Really appreciate it.
And still ahead, for us, it's a legacy defining moment for President Trump. But how will Democrats see it?
Our panel of star reporters will join me live.
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[08:15:25]
RAJU: We're keeping a close eye on history unfolding in the Middle East, and as we await the release of the hostages in Gaza, and as President Trump prepares to leave for a trip to the region later today.
I have an excellent panel to talk about all of this. Joining me now is CNN's Jeff Zeleny, Seung Min Kim of "The Associated Press", CNN's Stephen Collinson, and Anna Palmer of "Punchbowl News".
Good morning to you all.
As we saw yesterday, there were quite -- there were scenes that were pretty dramatic playing out in Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, hundreds of thousands of people came together to celebrate this upcoming release of the hostages. We heard a lot of praise for President Trump. We can hear some of that from some of the -- some of the people who attended chanting Trump's name. When Netanyahu was mentioned, however, he was -- boos of Netanyahu's name when he when he was mentioned.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Prime Minister Netanyahu --
(BOOS)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: So didn't go over as well for Netanyahu.
But, Stephen, it has taken obviously two very painful years to get to this point. How do you see this moment, both for Trump and for the Middle East? STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: For the Middle East, it's a
rare moment of hope after a terrible few years, as you say. I buy into this idea that only President Trump could have brought this moment to fruition. He's more popular as you saw there than Netanyahu in Israel. That's made him able to put pressure on him and make him do things he necessarily, perhaps didn't want to do.
His relationship with the Arab leaders often raises ethical concerns here, but it has allowed him to corral those leaders behind this peace plan. The weakening of Iran is also important in severing some of the ties to Hamas.
But the tests of this plan, assuming all these hostage releases come about, will come thick and fast. That's why this summit in Egypt is going to be so important. They have to get this international peace force in.
Aid has often founded ceasefire deals in the past with Israel. Let the aid go in fully, will Hamas try and co-opt that aid again to rebuild? And then you have the whole idea of will Hamas leave power?
So, what it needs is more engagement by the president, concentrated engagement potentially for every day for the rest of his term.
RAJU: Yeah. And he's leaving for the Middle East this afternoon. This is what we expect from his trip. He's visiting Israel and Egypt.
He's going to expect to speak at the Israeli Knesset this week. He's joining world leaders for the summit in Egypt. As we expect these hostages to be freed Monday morning.
Seung Min, you cover the White House. What do you expect from this trip and the optics of it all?
SEUNG MIN KIM, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it's just certainly a trip of celebration. I mean, this is something that he had talked about this for, you know, for his entire term. But he's really ramped up this prospect of a deal in -- of a peace deal in Gaza for the last several weeks. And he's hinted at it constantly until it finally came to fruition -- or fruition over the last week.
So, you're going to see a lot of that. He obviously has touted this as peace in the Middle East. I'm sure you're going to hear that later today, but we know that this is the first step of a very long, complicated process to bring peace and sort of settlement to the region. So, you know, obviously, the president has a tendency to, you know, you know, prop up and kind of talk big about a lot of his achievements. This certainly is one. But obviously there's a long way to go before this true peace in the region is established.
RAJU: And before you jump in, Jeff, just how do the American public view his handling of this conflict? Now, this is before the announcement of the ceasefire deal, these poll numbers.
But just so you know, where things stand as the ceasefire deal is playing out here in 2025, you're seeing in March 2025 approve, disapprove. Still underwater back then, but it's slid. It's gone in the wrong direction. And that was before the announcement of this deal.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: For sure. And those numbers are almost certain to change if the deal holds. Like Stephen said, it is fragile, there's no doubt. But President Trump is the singular American president who could have brought all these sides together.
Now we will see what happens going forward. But one thing is clear this has changed. Domestic politics in the United States in ways we have not seen in a generation. Just how Americans view Israel has changed dramatically.
RAJU: Especially younger Americans in particular.
ZELENY : For sure, under the age of 30, particularly. And how this has upended Democratic politics just over the last two years. So going forward, this is going to be a fascinating dynamic to watch here in America.
But first, when the president travels this afternoon, tomorrow, giving that big speech at the parliament, he'll be meeting with hostages and their family. He won't be going to Hostages Square for security reasons, were told, but will be meeting with the Netanyahu and then on to Egypt to have a really a summit of world leaders who are all coming to see him once again.
So, in the second Trump administration, we are seeing a president who is flexing his muscle here at home, of course, but abroad, he its quite fascinating, actually, to watch, what's the developing? But again, it is still fragile, and we do not know exactly how this is going to end, but we do know it has certainly changed politics forever here. And he gets a ton of credit for this. There's just no doubt about it.
RAJU: Yeah. And the question too is his opposition party, right? Because he's facing this moment of incredibly polarized politics. And see Democrats and him battling an almost everything and raising major concerns about things that he is doing in his presidency.
So how do they respond? Democrats respond to the question about whether Trump -- how much credit Trump deserves, and whether they should go as far as giving him the Nobel Peace Prize as Trump's allies very clearly want him to get.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-CT): We are on the precipice of a monumental and historic achievement, and President Trump deserves a measure of credit for it.
RAJU: Do you think that Trump deserves credit for this?
SEN. DICK DURBIN (D-IL): Yes, if it works.
RAJU: There are people on the right calling for him to get the Nobel Peace Prize. What do you say to that?
DURBIN: Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANNA PALMER, PUNCHBOWL NEWS CO-FOUNDER & CEO: Yeah. I mean, I think what you hear there is what we've talked to a bunch of lawmakers. I think Democrats are saying they're cautiously optimistic. They're not trying to kind of fight him on this. What is to me, the most dramatic thing is just the split screen you're seeing, right? What's happening in the Middle East versus the politics here domestically, certainly shut down going nowhere, right?
The president unengaged, unwilling to kind of -- I mean, they're doing some riffs, they're doing some different things. But he himself is not working the phones to try to get the government reopened here in Washington, but is instead taking that victory lap in the Middle East.
RAJU: Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see how the Democrats square that. They're seeing all these things that he's doing. They're battling him. They're raising major concerns. The government is shut down. And this, of course, huge achievement in the Middle East. We'll see how they react.
And next, I speak with a swing district Republican who's actually frustrated with his party's handling of the government shutdown. And with the blame game in full swing in Washington, it was actually "Saturday Night Live" that had some fun last night with it, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm here to tell you that this Democrat government shutdown needs to end now.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, the. Democrats are even more eager to end this shutdown than our Republican colleagues.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Ha! That makes me laugh more than the than the end of Old Yeller.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:27:05]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: Why aren't you negotiating? There's nothing for us to negotiate. The House has done its job. The House Republicans right now are working hard in their districts all around the country. They're meeting their constituents' needs.
(END VIDEO CLIP) RAJU: As the government shutdown hits its 12th day with no end in sight, only half the Capitol has its lights on. As Speaker Johnson keeps the House's doors closed again this week, the chamber has not been in session since September 19th, all in an effort to pressure senate Democrats to vote for the House bill to reopen the government. But that strategy, as well as Trump's mass layoffs of federal workers this past Friday, is raising questions from some Republican lawmakers.
Joining me now to weigh in is GOP Congressman Kevin Kiley of California.
Mr. Kiley, thanks so much for being with me this morning. Really appreciate your time.
What do you say to Speaker Johnson, who says there's no reason for the House to come back to session?
REP. KEVIN KILEY (R-CA): Well, there are a lot of reasons for the House to be in session. We were supposed to be in session the last two weeks. Were supposed to be in session next week, irrespective of a government shutdown, because, you know, we have oversight hearings to do. We have legislation to markup. We have the ordinary business of the people to carry out.
And there's no justification to shut everything down just because we're in the midst of the government shutdown. In fact, the fact that there's a government shutdown is all the more reason that we should be there in order to be doing everything we possibly can to get us out of this situation, not to mention the fact that the entire reason the House had to pass a seven-week continuing resolution in the first place is that we were going to miss the deadline for passing a full budget.
So even if that seven-week continuing resolution became law, we've already burned a few of those weeks just being out of session. So, I think we absolutely should be there.
RAJU: You know, the speaker says that there should be no negotiations with Democrats. But, you know, we're about to begin week three of this very damaging shutdown. It's only going to get more painful for so many Americans.
So, is it time for GOP leaders to begin negotiating with Democrats to find a way out of this crisis?
KILEY: Yeah, I think we need to explore all avenues. And I want to be very clear. I voted for the continuing resolution. I don't like continuing resolutions, but it was the lesser of two evils. Between that and shutting down the government, which is a terrible thing.
I wish the Senate would just vote for the version we passed in the House. I don't agree with what Chuck Schumer is doing. I think he's being unreasonable.
But this is politics. Sometimes you have to work with people that you believe are being unreasonable in order to find the common ground that is best for the country.
And so long as the House isn't even there, that's going to be very hard for us to do.
RAJU: Yeah. So, you think it's time to negotiate for the speaker to negotiate with Democrats?
KILEY: I think if there's an avenue that we can explore that will that will get us out of this, then absolutely. I mean, they've brought up this issue of the of the subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.
There are a number of people in our conference, myself included, who are very concerned about the prospect that people are going to see a sudden increase in premiums. And so if, you know, reaching some sort of deal there, or at least a first step towards a deal which is going to need to be reached anyway, provides a pathway out of the shutdown as well. I don't see why we shouldn't at least look into that.
RAJU: Yes. So you think it's time to negotiate -- for the Speaker to negotiate with Democrats?
REP. KEVIN KILEY (R-CA): I think if there's an avenue that we can explore that will that will get us out of this, then absolutely. I mean, they've brought up this issue of the -- of the subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.
There are a number of people in our conference, myself included, who are very concerned about the prospect that people are going to see a sudden increase in premiums.
And so if, you know, reaching some sort of deal there, or at least a first step towards a deal which is going to need to be reached anyway, provides a pathway out of the shutdown as well, I don't see why we shouldn't at least look into that.
RAJU: Yes. So do you think that negotiating the subsidies should be part of this negotiation with --
KILEY: I'm not saying that, I'm just saying if that's a possibility we ought to explore it. We should explore all possibilities, because a shutdown is a terrible thing for the American people.
RAJU: So, Congressman, as you know, in prior government shutdowns, hundreds of thousands of federal employees are furloughed, meaning they get their jobs back when the government reopens.
The White House went even further, announcing on Friday that more than 4,100 employees will be fired. Are you ok with the White House taking this drastic step?
KILEY: Well, when you have a shutdown like this, it's really not the fault of the White House in the sense that it's the job of Congress to pass to fund the government. And the White House is reliant upon Congress for the funding it needs to operate the government.
So when you suddenly say, sorry, you're not going to have funding anymore, you need to make do, it does put the White House in a situation where they have to figure out a path forward in less-than- ideal circumstances.
(CROSSTALKING)
KILEY: And so, you know, I think that this is one of the things that we've warned about. This is why I voted against government shutdowns, both during the Biden administration and during the Trump administration, because there are not only the prospect of furloughs and people not getting paychecks, you lose access to important government services. You have national parks that are inaccessible.
So that's precisely why I think we need to be there to figure out a way forward.
RAJU: But, you know, there are a lot of Republicans who are concerned about the layoffs, including Senator Lisa Murkowski, who said they will, quote, "hurt hardworking Americans who have dedicated their lives to public services and jeopardize agency missions". Do you agree with that concern?
KILEY: I certainly think that we ought to do everything possible to minimize the pain and disruption that the shutdown causes.
(CROSSTALKING)
KILEY: But, you know --
(CROSSTALKING)
KILEY: -- out of the shutdown.
RAJU: Yes. Should the White House reverse --
KILEY: I'm sorry.
RAJU: -- should the White House, White House reverse course and not move forward with additional firings?
KILEY: I haven't looked at specifically everything they're doing. I mean, there could well be, you know, actions that they were planning on taking anyway because the positions aren't needed.
But I certainly don't think that there's -- that a shutdown, you know, should be used as a -- as a basis to do things that would not otherwise be in keeping with making the government more efficient in serving the American people.
But again, when you're in a situation where suddenly all of your funding is gone, then you really have to figure out a way to make do.
And so this is a failure of Congress to actually do its most basic responsibility, which is to fund the government and keep the government the taxpayers are paying for open to the American people.
RAJU: Congressman, as you know, as the House has been out, it's been almost three weeks since Democrat Adelita Grijalva won her race to fill a vacant House seat.
Yet the Speaker is breaking with past precedent and has said she will not be sworn in until the government reopens. You've noted you've been concerned about the Speakers approach. Why?
KILEY: Well, the woman I mean, I think she won her election. It's a duly -- you know, she's the duly-elected member of Congress from that district and she should be sworn in.
I don't know why this is an issue. The constituents in that district deserve to have a representative.
Congress was supposed to be in session the last couple of weeks, in which case she should have been sworn in.
And so, given the fact that session was canceled the last two weeks and its apparently being canceled this coming week, they should swear her in on a pro forma session as has been done before and as she's asking for.
I just don't think that -- I don't understand why this is an issue at all.
RAJU: Are you worried about the ramifications of that? Say, if a Democrat Speaker didn't swear in a Republican House member?
KILEY: Yes. I don't think it should matter what the party is. I mean, this is kind of the most basic thing that every district is entitled to have a member of Congress representing them. When you win your election, you're entitled to be sworn in to represent that district.
I don't know why it's an issue. It really shouldn't matter what party is in charge and what party is being elected.
RAJU: All right. Congressman Kevin Kiley of California, thank you so much for getting up and joining me this morning. Really appreciate your time and giving me your perspective.
KILEY: You got it.
RAJU: Appreciate it. All right.
KILEY: Thanks for having me.
RAJU: Absolutely.
My panel is back here. So Kevin Kiley is someone we're watching closely because he is a swing district Republican. He won his seat. And Trump won that district narrowly.
Now, Democrats are looking at redistricting his seat and trying to gerrymander so he has a harder time winning.
But his comments were interesting. What's your reaction to the fact that he's concerned with the Speaker's approach? He says, get back to Washington and negotiate, which is an opposite position of Republican leaders.
[08:34:52]
ANNA PALMER, CO-FOUNDER, PUNCHBOWL NEWS: Yes. I mean, Republican leaders have been in lockstep with their position. They feel like they -- I have never seen the confidence in a shutdown where Republicans are with both the House and the Senate.
But I do think he is reflecting a growing number of House Republican lawmakers who are concerned with the kind of visual that government shut down, people aren't getting paid, basic services are stopping in their states, and they're just back at home doing fundraisers, spending time not in Washington trying to fix the problem.
RAJU: Have you been surprised that Democrats have dug in as much as they have?
SEUNG MIN KIM, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I've actually been fairly surprised, and I think it's because they believe they have the politics on their side.
First of all, they're litigating this over health care, which they feel they generally have political strength over when it comes to that issue over Republicans.
But also they see these cracks coming, whether it's Kevin Kiley, a swing district Republican, going up against the Speaker and his congressional leadership, or what we've been hearing from other Republicans, whether it's on the record or in private, about their concerns about how the White House kind of may be overreaching here in a shutdown.
You know, they are threatening potentially no back pay for furloughed workers. And obviously, the round of mass firings began last Friday.
So they see those cracks. And that's why they are digging in. They feel the political momentum, whether they -- whether that actually exists or not.
RAJU: Speaking of cracks, because it's not just the center of the House Republican conference, as you heard from Kevin Kiley there.
It's also the far right of the House Republican conference among some, at least, including Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who I caught up with this past week.
And I asked her about the Republican approach, which she disagrees with, and also her concerns about the Republican chances of winning or keeping the House in the midterms.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: Are they making the best case to voters about why Republicans should be in the majority?
REP. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-GA): I'll tell you how I vote. I think of it as like rehiring someone that has worked for me. Do I think they've done a good job?
RAJU: And what's the answer to that question? Do they -- you say there's one question that voters will consider. Did they do a good job or not?
GREENE: I think that's the question.
RAJU: Well, how would you answer that?
GREENE: Well. Right now I wouldn't give Republicans a great grade. I think -- this is why I'm being vocal. I always push on my own party to look, you guys need to govern the way you campaign.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: I wouldn't give Republicans a great grade, she said.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Look, I mean, that is a reflection of the growing sort of discontent among House Republicans -- to Anna's point about being out in districts, not here.
But yesterday, when President Trump ordered his Defense Department to find money to make sure those military paychecks continue on Wednesday, that is one pressure point that he's kind of giving in on.
RAJU: Yes.
ZELENY: But in terms of the overall process here, there really is no end in sight, because if the military is getting paid short term, the other federal workers are not, but they are dug in.
But Democrats are using this, yes, for health care, but also so many other grievances that they really disagree with President Trump on.
(CROSSTALKING)
RAJU: And speaking of the health care point that Congressman Kiley indicated there, he's concerned about these Obamacare subsidies expiring. That's the Democrats --
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Right. Democrats have an easy argument here. They can say Donald Trump is keeping the government shut. He's firing workers so he doesn't have to talk about allowing Americans before their health care.
I think the question is, how or do they have the voices that can make that argument go national?
RAJU: Yes, those are big questions here. And as we said, this is going to drag on. 35 days -- that was the longest shutdown in American history, 2018 to 2019. Could this go longer?
A lot of people here in Washington think that it very well could.
Now, as the shutdown drags on, be sure to tune in this Wednesday when CNN hosts a town hall with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. That will be live at 9:00 p.m. Eastern only here on CNN.
Next, we're in the final sprint to the first big bellwether races of Trump's presidency. As polls tighten, how much are Democrats sweating? And can Republicans pull off an upset?
[08:38:45]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
RAJU: Just 23 days away, the first big election since Donald Trump's victory last year. The governors races in New Jersey and Virginia will take top billing as a first major referendum on Trump's presidency.
In those battles the candidates squared off in their final debates this past week. And things got, shall we say, a little feisty.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D), VIRGINIA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: He thinks it's ok for someone to be fired from their job for being gay. That is discrimination.
LT. GOV. WINSOME EARL-SEARS (R), VIRGINIA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: When are you going to ask Senators Kaine and Warner to please keep federal workers working?
JACK CIATARELLI (R), NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: The difference between me and the congresswoman, I got to walk at my college graduation. I've never broken the law.
REP. MIKIE SHERRILL (D), NEW JERSEY GOV CANDIDATE: As he made millions, as these opioid companies made billions, tens of thousands of New Jerseyans died.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Mr. Ciattarelli.
CIATTARELLI: First of all, shame on you. Second of all --
SHERRILL: Shame on you, sir.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: All right. My panel is back.
The New Jersey governor's race. Let's start with that. Jack Ciattarelli who's run before. He's down by eight points to Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic congresswoman.
There's some concerns among Democratic circles about this race tightening.
ZELENY: There's no doubt about it. It is tightening. And these races are fascinating in several reasons. One, both of the candidates on the Democratic side are women who won in 2018 during Trump's first midterm.
[08:44:47]
ZELENY: They were part of this national security Democratic moderates, both of whom had national security credentials before, military and the CIA. Now they're running for governor here.
And Donald Trump is, of course, hanging over this race, as he always does, but in very different ways.
Jack Ciattarelli is trying to effectively embrace the Trump policies and strategies, and we will see if the president goes in there for a rally at the end. I'm told that's a possibility.
But in Virginia, he is essentially keeping him at arms' length. He's not given a full-throated endorsement of Winsome Earl-Sears.
That's fascinating races here. But it is going to be a referendum, particularly in Virginia, with the government shutdown, 300,000 federal workers in the state of Virginia -- that is going to have an impact on the race.
RAJU: And New Jersey is one of those states in which Trump did a lot better.
KIM: Right, right, right.
RAJU: In this past cycle than he's done before, only losing to Harris by six points compared to when he lost to Biden in that state by 16 points.
KIM: It's been really interesting to observe the president's tactics to both of the races, tactics to the point that exists in the Virginia race, because he does seem much more personally invested and interested in the New Jersey race.
Whether that's for that reason that you mentioned, it's obviously in his backyard. His golf club is there.
But in Virginia, which we generally see as the more competitive race when it comes to these off-year elections, he's not -- he doesn't seem to be paying very much attention.
I mean, a couple of weeks ago, he called the gubernatorial election a semi-local race. And on Friday he said -- on Friday, when he was asked about this, or actually when he appeared with Governor Glenn Youngkin for a pharmaceutical announcement, he said, I hope that young woman wins. You know, 61 is young in some circles, but I assume he was talking about Winsome Earl-Sears. They're obviously very interested.
RAJU: And he's not endorsed her yet. I asked (INAUDIBLE) about that a few weeks ago, and that was a complicated question for her to answer.
But in that race, Spanberger is still ahead according to the polls. But she's faced some controversy as the Democratic congresswoman, the nominee for governor there because of the way she has handled a separate controversy involving Jay Jones, the Virginia Democratic candidate for attorney general. Of course, it was leaked last week. These text messages he sent back
in 2022 really horrific text messages calling for violence against a sitting member of the state house. Later apologizing for that when that went public.
She was asked about whether she is still endorsing him for attorney general during that debate.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Will you continue to endorse Jay Jones as the next attorney general of Virginia? You have 60 seconds.
SPANBERGER: The comments that Jay Jones made are absolutely abhorrent. I denounce them when I learned of them.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Do you still continue to endorse Jay Jones? 15 seconds, yes or no?
SPANBERGER: We are all running our individual races.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: As of now, you still endorse Jay Jones as attorney general.
SPANBERGER: I'm saying as of now, it's up to every voter to make their own individual decision.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: How do you not have a better answer for that?
PALMER: I mean what a non-answer. So awkward. 60 seconds and she didn't know how to fill it, frankly. I mean that just showcases how you should make the decision. Rip the band-aid off at this point. It's not going to --
RAJU: Yes. Say either I'm going to endorse or not endorse -- this half thing.
PALMER: Right. I mean, it just makes no sense to me at all in terms of -- because now this is what's playing on cable news. This is what's playing to all of her constituents -- that attack ad writes itself.
RAJU: Do you -- and speaking of which, Winsome Earl-Sears has already put out an ad on this in that exchange. How do you -- is that going to have much of an impact here in this race, do you think?
COLLINSON: I think it's going to be the dominant argument from the Republican campaign for the rest of the campaign.
The question is, to your point, Jeff, in northern Virginia, especially where Democrats traditionally get their biggest turnout, is that going to be the biggest issue or is the firing of all these federal workers and the government shutdown going to be an issue at the same time, as Democrats are arguing that this race should be about grocery prices, energy prices, the cost of living. So, these races are always very interesting because they give you the
first hints of the coming arguments for the midterms and the presidential election.
That was the case with Youngkin and trans athletes in school sports four years ago. So far, that Democratic argument doesn't seem to be dominating yet.
RAJU: Yes, and it's something to watch. And, you know, sometimes it gets overanalyzed in these off-year elections, but at least gives us some early indication of how voters are feeling.
All right. Coming up, have you ever accidentally posted something on social media before you meant to? Well, imagine if you accidentally announced your campaign for Senate.
That and more on our political radar. That's next.
[08:49:26]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
RAJU: Topping our political radar this week, former President Joe Biden's office announced yesterday that he has started radiation therapy as part of his treatment for prostate cancer.
Now, Biden's office revealed in May that he had been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer that had spread to his bones.
Biden, who turns 83 next month, told CNN back in May that, quote, "we're going to be able to beat this".
Now following his trip to the Middle East, President Trump is expected to award the late Charlie Kirk a Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest civilian honor in the United States. Sources told CNN that an event had been planned for Tuesday on what would have been the conservative activist's 32nd birthday.
[08:54:46]
RAJU: And finally, perhaps there is no bigger Senate race than in Maine, where longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins is a top target for Democrats once again.
And as news broke late last week that Democratic Governor Janet Mills planned to jump into the race this coming Tuesday, well, let's just say she may have gotten ahead of herself.
Mills posted on X a fundraising video that noted she was running for the seat. Then, lo and behold, she deleted this post.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. JANET MILLS (D-ME): Folks, do you want Democrats to take back the Senate?
Well, I'm Governor Janet Mills, and I'm running to flip Maine's Senate seat blue.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: You can call it a mulligan or perhaps a mill-igan (ph). Mills, a top recruit for Democratic leaders, is jumping into a very crowded primary.
That's it for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. You can follow me on X @mkraju and follow the show @INSIDE POLITICS. You can also follow me on TikTok and on Instagram.
If you ever miss an episode, just catch up wherever you get your podcasts and search for INSIDE POLITICS.
Up next, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER AND DANA BASH". Dana's guests include Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, and former Biden national security advisor Jake Sullivan.
Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.
[08:55:59]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
