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New CNN Poll: Democrats Have Upper Hand Heading Into Midterms; Allies & Some In GOP Condemn Trump's Greenland Tariffs; Minneapolis Tensions High As Trump Admin Investigates Democrats. CNN Poll: Majority Say Use of Force in MN Shooting Inappropriate; Interview with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY); Trump Pardons Woman Twice. Aired 8-9a ET

Aired January 18, 2026 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:23]

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MANU RAJU, CNN HOST (voice-over): Warning signs. New CNN poll results this hour signaled trouble for the GOP heading into the midterms.

Do you embrace Trump said you're a swing district Republicans --

REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: Yeah, we're running with Trump. Absolutely.

RAJU: But can Democrats overcome their own bad news?

Plus, standoff.

(CHANTING)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Greenland is our country. We cannot be bought.

RAJU: Europeans gather for an emergency meeting after Trump threatens to tariff allies over Greenland. How far will he go?

And shift left as Democrats get a boost from the last frontier? I go one on one with top Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.

SEN. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-NY): Everything's different. Now, we have a real path.

RAJU: But can they really win back the Senate?

INSIDE POLITICS, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.

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RAJU (on camera): Good morning. Welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. I'm Manu Raju.

Breaking this hour, brand new CNN polling giving us a fresh glimpse of the political landscape heading into this year's hugely consequential midterms. President Trump will mark one year back in office this Tuesday has been sounding the alarm about the prospects of a Democratic majority in the House.

And our poll suggests there is reason for his concern. Democrats have a clear advantage when voters are asked which party they prefer to control Congress. A big sign they are enjoying tailwinds at this key moment. They currently have a five-point edge over Republicans 46 to 41, outside the margin of error.

On top of that, Democrats and Democratic leaning registered voters are far more enthusiastic than Republicans, 66 percent say they are extremely motivated to vote, compared to just 50 percent of Republicans. And that is a huge swing from October 2024, where Republicans were motivated by five points.

But its not all good news for Democrats, with our poll finding their leaders are still held in very low regard.

We'll break this all down and more with an excellent group of reporters this morning, CNN's Alayna Treene, Zolan Kanno-Youngs with "The New York Times," and CNN's Aaron Blake.

Good morning to you all.

AARON BLAKE, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: Good morning.

RAJU: So, look, this is the latest in a series of data points that are positive for the Democrats. You look at what happened last year. They won special election after special election. They overperformed even when they lost in these races. And now, Trump's numbers are bad. Democrats have a five-point advantage in the generic ballot.

Are these -- it's still early. A lots going to change before November. Are these early signs of a potential blue wave?

BLAKE: If you look at history, this kind of advantage at this point in the cycle can lead to that. I would say a five-point advantage on the generic ballot is not commensurate with a huge wave election necessarily. We have almost a whole year before the election takes place.

The thing in this poll that I think is really encouraging for Democrats is that enthusiasm edge, which we've seen dating back to last summer. The problem, I think, for Trump and Republicans right now is he is doing so many things that are testing the patience, even of some portions of his base. You know, Greenland is not popular with his base. The tariffs are not terribly popular with his base.

Are people going to turn out for Republicans, for Congress if he keeps doing these things? And I think that explains a lot of why Democrats have this advantage. RAJU: Yeah, that swing in the motivation is just something. The

Republicans had a five-point advantage in 2024 about a motivated base. Now it's completely opposite. And you mentioned the wave compared to past elections, Aaron did. Just look at where things were back in January of 2018 and January 2010. Those were past wave elections. On this question of who should control Congress.

Back then, Democrats in 2018 of January, they had a five-point edge. They picked up 41 seats later in 2010, it was tighter. Republicans had a three-point edge. That was the tea party wave of 63 points -- 63 seats the Republicans picked up that cycle.

Zolan, you were just in with the president, interviewing him not too long ago. How concerned is he?

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I mean, at this point, I think one of the issues with the messaging of the White House is you still have this defiance from President Trump when it comes to these political vulnerabilities. When we were in the oval office, we were asking him about one of the issues that Democrats have really seized on here, which is the economy and affordability. And those answers, I don't think they're really going to excite the base.

[08:05:02]

We asked him about the $2,000 checks, for example, that he promised Americans from his tariffs, the money generated from his tariffs. And initially when we asked him, he actually seemed surprised. He replied saying, wait, I did that, right? He was actually surprised at those tariffs. And then he pivoted to the checks that he said that would be going to the military.

RAJU: And those are things that they're, of course, going to try to campaign on.

KANNO-YOUNGS: That's right. When it comes to when that's your reaction to being asked about some of these vague economic promises that are supposed to be addressing affordability and issue, that obviously the base cares about. You were brought back to the white house because you ran largely on the economy. And helping working class Americans. When that's your answer, you know, that's probably going to frustrate many Americans, including those in your base.

I think this poll, as well as some of those vague promises that he's made, it's a promising sign that the Democrats messaging thus far on the economy and affordability is starting to have some, some positive signs.

RAJU: And before you jump in, another data point of which Republicans could have concerns about is the Cook Political Report, they put 18 house races that they are analyzing here, all moving in the Democratic direction. That is from everywhere, from California to New York, all several states in between.

What's your reaction to all these?

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: What --

RAJU: All these pieces of data showing things pointing in one direction?

TREENE: I'll say this. They know they have a major problem in the White House. And every conversation I have, at least privately, of course, they're not going to publicly, you know, communicate this. They know they have an issue and they need to get it in order.

What I found really interesting, actually, was when the president met, a week or so ago now at the Kennedy Center with a bunch of House Republicans. And he kind of gave them this message.

And this is the message I know he's giving them in their private conversations to this idea of, you need to talk about our successes. You need to communicate all of the great things I'm doing. And he's really putting the onus on house Republicans, of course, and Republicans in the Senate, too. But this was just a House Republican meeting.

The problem is, when I talk to people, a lot of the presidents allies outside as well, they say so much of what the president is doing. And, Aaron, you touched on this is actually getting in the way of that message. Everything he's doing with foreign policy, a lot of the, you know, the focus on Greenland or the tariffs, but also sometimes even when people are talking about Venezuela and his language about wanting to run Venezuela, things like that, they say are hurting them. And that's something that the president, I don't think has fully kind of understood behind the scenes.

RAJU: And the question is net asset or net liability? Is Donald Trump presence on the campaign trail? I think that's a question that I put to the speaker of the House, Mike Johnson. I asked him, look, you have purple Republicans running in swing districts, purple districts. What should they do about Donald Trump? Should they embrace him?

And how do you feel about the fact that Democrats have an edge in the so-called generic ballot?

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JOHNSON: The generic ballot has Democrats up by about three. But if you look back at the last midterm, I think 2018 is a pretty good comparison. They were up by three times that much at this point in the year.

We are very bullish about the midterms. I'm absolutely convinced we're going to grow the majority. We have an incredible record to run on.

RAJU: Do you embrace Trump? Should your other swing district Republicans do?

JOHNSON: Yeah, we run with Trump. Absolutely. His -- his policies are working. All boats are rising. These economic numbers are going to be off the charts. People are going to be feeling very good about their incomes and their opportunity and their liberty. And they're going to -- they're going to reward Republicans for those policies.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KANNO-YOUNGS: Republicans have a problem here. And in a normal election, when you have a president who's in this position, who's unpopular as Trump is, you keep your distance. You don't talk about him. You don't welcome him to your district.

But Republicans need voters to be excited about Donald Trump to have their base turn out at all. They have a problem where their votes, their base is very much focused on infrequent voters who don't necessarily come out in midterm elections, who certainly don't come out in these special elections that we've been seeing recently. And so, they can't just kind of shove him to the side and say, well, I don't really want to be associated with him because so much of their base demands it.

RAJU: And another piece of this poll is on the other side of the aisle, the Democrats, they have had rock bottom approval ratings. They have been doing well in these special elections. But their numbers are not good, particularly when it comes to how Democratic leaders are handling their jobs.

This is the question that was put in the CNN poll, 72 percent disapprove of the way the Democratic leaders in Congress are handling their job, even though they're enjoying these headwinds in the poll or tailwinds they're enjoying in the polls. You see that? And look at the second question about whether the Democratic Democrats are doing enough to oppose Trump.

This is a question that was put to the Democratic voters, 78 percent of Democratic voters do not believe they're doing enough to oppose Trump.

[08:10:03]

So, they're enthusiastic about the midterms coming out in voting in November. But they also think their leaders are doing a terrible job.

KANNO-YOUNGS: Right, right. I'm glad you touched on this, because to me, this is a were basically seeing the same issue that we saw in 2024 extend to now, where voters have been very clear on the Democratic side what they want. They actually want someone to fight for them, someone to fill the void of leadership and actually to push back on the Trump administration.

This is a message that is -- should go out to the different candidates in these different states. Now, whether that actually factors into how hard they fight back against Trump, whether they mention Trump, whether they go more progressive or more moderate here. I think that will be interesting.

But it's very clear from this polling that we're seeing the same issues that existed in 2024 still exist. Now. They have not yet addressed it, at least in Congress.

RAJU: We will see. All right. Theres a lot to discuss.

Still ahead, why are Democrats newly emboldened about their chances to retake the senate? I'll go one on one with Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.

But first, Trump's weekend threat against Danish controlled Greenland has European officials holding an emergency meeting today. Some now are recalling this warning that Ted Cruz, then running for president against Donald Trump in 2016 when he said this.

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SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX): We're liable to wake up one morning and Donald, if he were president, would have nuked Denmark.

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[08:15:47]

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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He doesn't respect anything. He just takes what he thinks is his.

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RAJU: President Trump is ratcheting up his demands for Greenland and taking it to a whole new level. Yesterday, taking to Truth Social to announce stiff new tariffs on eight European countries that he vowed to impose until the United States acquires Greenland. All prompting an extraordinary emergency European Union meeting today with its 27 ambassadors, as thousands of people rallied yesterday against Trump's hostile takeover threat both in Greenland and in Denmark.

All is unnerved. American allies sent troops to Greenland to show support. One Republican senator calling all of this, quote, "stupid".

My panel is back.

So, okay, so this threat that he put out yesterday, just to remind viewers who may not have been checking Truth Social yesterday, but a very serious threat. Ten percent tariffs on these European countries starting February 1st. And then an additional 25 percent in June 1st.

Alayna, you cover the White House. Where is this heading? That's the question so many people have. Is he -- is how -- he is not backing down despite were seeing so much pushback in Congress, around the world, in America's closest allies. Where is he going with this?

TREENE: Look, I'll say a lot of this is coming. Obviously, this was ratcheted up rhetoric in the days after the Venezuela operation. The president is feeling very, very emboldened after the success of that of the capture of Nicolas Maduro and what they were able to do there. And that's part of what's happening behind the scenes. I'd remind you, this is something Trump has wanted for several years.

He tried and failed during his first term to try and see what he could do about getting a portion of Greenland, annexing Greenland, not to this extent, but wanted to do this and was essentially told he couldn't by the people around him then.

Now he is very much emboldened to trying to see what he can do here. And I will say, despite a lot of the -- a lot of uneasiness I would argue behind the scenes, even at the White House from some of his top advisers about this idea of potentially using the military to go in and try to gain control of what is a Danish territory and undermining NATO to do so, the president believes that this is a legacy building thing for him. And that's what I think a lot of this comes down to, particularly when you look at the foreign policy thing here.

He believes that the Arctic region needs this type of security, not just for national security reasons, because of aggression from China and Russia, but also for missile defense systems.

RAJU: Yeah.

TREENE: I'm getting in the weeds here, but I'll just say this is something he very much believes is necessary. And so, the politics around it is actually almost secondary to what he believes will be a legacy-building thing for him.

KANNO-YOUNGS: And natural resources.

TREENE: Exactly.

KANNO-YOUNGS: Right?

I mean, he's been saying this is all about national security, but I remember when Mike Waltz was coming in as national security advisor, and he also mentioned critical minerals, right, that are under some of the ice there in Greenland as well.

I think the emboldened point is absolutely right. When I think of -- when I saw the Truth Social post yesterday, I immediately went back to when we were in the Oval Office with him, and we asked him, what can stop you on the world stage right now? What do you feel is a -- is a restraint on your power?

And he said myself, he said my own morality. And we asked, what about international law? And he brushed that aside, essentially, I don't need international law, right? Said he would abide by it, but it depends on how you define it.

That's pretty relevant when you look -- now look at these -- when you now look at these threats on Greenland, particularly after military operation in Venezuela. Absolutely emboldened right now. Absolutely.

RAJU: And he's going to Davos this week. You're going Davos this week as well. So we'll see how he addresses it. If he does address it there, and he meets with Europeans as well. But you mentioned the pushback that is happening and how Trump doesn't

seem to care about that. The American public, this is what they said, according to the CNN poll that came out just a couple of days ago, it said about should the United States take control of Greenland? Not very popular there, as you can see. Only among independents, look at that, 82 percent of independent voters oppose. Just 52 percent of Republicans are in favor of it, which is not a good number for Trump, who's in the 80s and 90s when it comes to GOP support, but significant opposition across the board there.

[08:20:06]

And then on Capitol Hill, there was actually a delegation in Denmark while Trump was making this tariff threat. Thom Tillis, the Republican senator, said the fact that only a small handful of advisers are actively pushing for course of action to seize territory of an ally is, quote, "beyond stupid".

And then, Lisa Murkowski, another Republican, called this unnecessary, punitive and a profound mistake. So, these are the people who support NATO, their support Greenland. They want to show support for Denmark. So perhaps not surprisingly, they're saying this, but Trump doesn't seem to care about this.

BLAKE: I mean, these Republican senators and lots of people have wanted to pretend that this is not a real thing for a very long time, dating back to 2019, when Trump first began floating this. I think this tariff threat is the latest sign that they need to take this seriously. And those senators that believe in the importance of NATO probably need to reckon with the idea that even Trump -- the things Trump is doing shy of a military invasion of Greenland, could really damage that alliance over the long term. Maybe they need to do something about this, because he does appear to be serious about it.

So, I think in the coming days, it's going to be really telling to see how some of these members talk. Do they talk like Thom Tillis talks? Do they talk like Lisa Murkowski?

Do they start to talk about something we saw recently with Venezuela, which is a War Powers resolution that would somehow restrict what Trump can do. Do they start talking about reining in his tariff authorities?

I think it's difficult to believe they would ever do that, because that would be a huge rebuke of Trump. But those are the levers that are very much available to them if they feel strongly.

RAJU: And, Aaron, you actually have a good piece here about just how the GOP's noninterventionist phase is over because you're seeing -- you know, you're seeing not just in Greenland, but all these other -- what happened to the, you know, the president who was not going to be involved in rebuilding or intervening restrained military restraint.

And over the weekend, he also threatened Iran's supreme leader, calling him a criminal and saying that this is he called him a sick man who should run his country properly and stop killing people. He told that to "Politico" over the weekend.

This is not -- this is not a isolationist president.

KANNO-YOUNGS: No, no. And, you know, I -- I think that's a faction, a faction of his base interpreted America first to be isolationist. To me, the through line with Trump's approach on the global stage has always been transactional, right?

This is the latest iteration of America first. He even had a comment of this years ago that America first is really what he what he makes it right. And this period is showing that, I think you're still seeing the transactional element on the global stage. But you're right.

And by the way, going back to our last block, this is also a source of frustration among some members of his base, the most outspoken ones. But I think that's a trickle down to voters, to the focus on foreign policy and not enough on domestic issues.

RAJU: Yeah, no question about it.

All right. Still ahead, as protesters poured into the streets this weekend, the dramatic escalation from Trump's Justice Department.

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[08:26:39]

RAJU: Minneapolis continues to be a hotbed of anti-ICE demonstrations. And new this morning, "The Washington Post" reporting the Pentagon now has 1,500 active duty troops in Alaska on alert to possibly head down to Minnesota. Protesters pouring onto the streets this weekend, despite below freezing temperatures. And this as President Trump's feud with the top Democrats in the state has taken a familiar twist.

Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey are the latest to be targeted by the justice department, which is now investigating allegations of possible obstruction of federal law enforcement. They've called the probe an intimidation tactic and joins a long list of political foes under investigation or prosecution by the Trump administration.

My panel is back.

Now, first, on the Insurrection Act of 1807, Trump has threatened to invoke this several times. This is just a handful of times that he has done so since the last term, from the George Floyd protests to what's happening right now here in Minneapolis.

Of course, this is -- has been the last time someone has a president has invoked this was in 1992. So, this is very rare to do that essentially send troops into the streets of the United States that in '92 was done in conjunction with the governor at the time.

TREENE: Yeah, they had requested it. RAJU: This was during the L.A. riots, after Rodney King. Is it -- is he's threatened this time and time again. Is he finally going to follow through here?

TREENE: That's unclear. And from the language that he used, particularly Friday when he was headed off to Mar-a-Lago for the weekend, it seemed like right now, he doesn't think he needs it, which is basically what the president had said.

Look, I will say from my conversations, and this is still true as late as this week, his advisers have continued to tell him that this would be a huge move that could be very politically damaging. And that's what, when it comes down to it, yes, there are a lot of legal implications about using the Insurrection Act, but more so its the political ones that make this very risky for the president and his administration. And this is actually a move where they are saying, you know, what he's been doing with ICE in these different cities, deploying the National Guard to different cities as well. It has been largely unpopular in many cases.

MANU RAJU, CNN HOST: Yes.

TREENE: And so to invoke the Insurrection Act, which would essentially allow him to put marines and soldiers -- military in the streets of these cities, they recognize that that could be very damaging for him.

RAJU: And to that point, look -- look at these numbers. 57 percent of Independents say that Trump has gone too far when it comes to undocumented, to deporting and handling undocumented immigrants. Much different than it was in the run up to the 2024 elections.

I mean, if he does do this and invokes the Insurrection Act, does this -- you're a Minnesota guy -- will this throw a match into a tinderbox?

AARON BLAKE, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: Yes. And I think that the White House seems to recognize that, at least somewhat. Alayna mentioned the fact that, you know, the protests here are already the people are already siding with the protesters in a lot of ways.

You know, the shooting that we had last week, it's almost a 2 to 1 margin in the CNN poll. People think that that shooting was not justified by the ICE agent of Renee Good.

If you look back at the military deployments last year that Trump did when he sent the National Guard into a series of cities that was also unpopular.

So you combine those two things and then you have an even heavier military presence in a more tense situation in Minneapolis, I think that's a real recipe for a huge risk for the White House. And I think they recognize that.

RAJU: Even if you were in the Oval Office, the immediate aftermath of the Renee Good shooting and when Trump was actually looking at the video of what happened there, they have locked into a narrative of what happened in -- with the shooting of Renee Good. You know, they called her the incident domestic terrorism before there

was an investigation. That's what DHS said. They have now backed that off that and they've doubled down even as more and more video evidence has come out.

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, they doubled down just hours after the shooting happened. We were in the Oval Office and asked him about this shooting. And he immediately had an aide come over with a laptop and showed the video.

There was a reflexive defensiveness of the ICE agent in this case. And I don't think just the ICE agent who shot Renee Good, but also a reflexive defensiveness of any incident that is attached to his primary policy, one of his favorite policies, that being immigration enforcement.

The issue is, I mean, I think this has gone beyond immigration enforcement for many voters, for many Americans at this point. Is it more now about the unilateral federal intervention in an American city, use of force, you know, aggressive use of force, at this point?

It doesn't seem to be just about immigration at this point. But that being said, I pressed the president on if he thought his ICE tactics had gone too far. Again, this was the same day of the shooting after it happened. And he didn't go there. It seems that for the president, like again, he continued to defend it even after that video when he had a slight change in tone.

I mean, remember some in the administration at this point, just hours after the shooting, were calling Renee Good a domestic terrorist as well and laying blame on her as well. That also hasn't seemed to be received well by Americans and voters at this time.

RAJU: Right. Before any investigation and the question for --

KANNO-YOUNGS: Before any facts were assessed, any investigation was done.

RAJU: And the question is, will we ever see an actual investigation, given the fighting between the -- what the federal government and the Minnesota Democratic leaders in the state? And now there's this talk of this investigation into Tim Walz and Jacob Frey.

And they join a long list of people being investigated by the Trump administration, who obviously, their political foes -- Mark Kelly Democratic Senator, John Bolton, been indicted, James Comey indicted, others under investigation. How serious is this investigation into Walz and Frey?

TREENE: We'll have to see. I mean, the fact that they're doing it is notable, of course, just given the sensitivity around everything involving Minnesota right now. We were talking about this earlier when we were in break before we got to this segment about how so many of these investigations actually kind of lessens and decrease the power that they hold. And so we'll have to see exactly what this could lead to. But it's of

course incredibly significant and notable and something that I think is only going to further, you know, cause tensions between the people of Minnesota and this administration.

RAJU: And again, will it lead to any -- us being able to learn what actually happened in that terrible shooting involving Renee Good? That's another question that we don't quite have the answer to.

All right. Coming up next, the race for the Senate majority and why Democrats see a new opening. I caught up with the senator who's trying to steer the party back to power.

[08:34:47]

RAJU: Plus a senior GOP senators reelection chances potentially ruined, all thanks to a late Saturday night post from President Trump.

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RAJU: For Democrats, winning a net of four seats to take back the Senate is much harder than it sounds. They have to defend several seats in purple states and pick up seats in red states.

[08:39:46]

RAJU: But this past week, a big boost when the former Democratic congresswoman from ruby-red Alaska Mary Peltola, launched a Senate bid against Republican Dan Sullivan.

Now, Democratic leaders see their clearest path yet to the majority, as Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who chairs the Senate Democratic campaign arm, told me this past week.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RAJU: So this cycle is still -- the map is still very hard for Democrats. But now you guys actually see a path to the majority. What is that path?

SEN. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-NY): Well, a lot's changed, which is why we have this path. We've really recruited the most Formidable candidates possible in multiple states, which is fantastic.

And the Republicans have had massive recruiting challenges, lots of divisive primaries. And the climate that President Trump is leaving our candidates with, voters are extremely anxious about cost of groceries, cost of housing, cost of transportation, very anxious about the cuts to Medicaid, the cuts to Social Security and the V.A. in terms of staff.

And so now we have a real path. We've always been bullish on North Carolina and Maine. We have fantastic candidates in Roy Cooper and Janet Mills. And I'm very optimistic about those races.

And then we were able to get Sherrod Brown to run in Ohio, which is amazing. Ohioans love him. He has extremely high name ID. He's running against someone who was appointed. And so he's got a real opportunity in Ohio, which is terrific.

And just Monday, Mary Peltola announced in Alaska. And Alaska, as you know, is a pretty purple state. And she's not only won statewide before, but she has a real legacy and record of fighting for Alaskans, understanding what Alaskans need for the economy, and really putting those issues of cost and health care front and center.

RAJU: So let's dig in a little bit about Ohio and Alaska, because, look, they ran both Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola. They ran last cycle and they lost statewide. What's different now?

GILLIBRAND: Everything's different. The fact that President Trump is at 36 percent, we have seen in midterms of presidents in power in their sixth year that when they have both levers of government, it doesn't go well for the party in power. George bush '06, last time the Republicans had the trifecta in a sixth year, we won 30 House seats that cycle and six Senate seats that cycle.

And if you even look at Barack Obama's sixth year, that was the year he had a shellacking and lost 60 House seats and Senate seats.

And so the truth is, the climate is very different than last cycle. Trump's not on the ticket in Ohio specifically. JD Vance isn't on the ticket right now. And so there's no driver of getting that MAGA base out in Ohio right now.

And if you really look at the data, Sherrod outperformed the top of the ticket by 7 percent -- by seven points. And so that's meaningful. And he only lost by a few points.

So I think he will not only make that up but show the strength of who he is because he understands Ohioans. He understands how important cost of groceries and housing is and how important health care is to the well-being of his entire state.

RAJU: And what about Maine? Because, you know, you mentioned Janet Mills. She has a primary against Graham Platten. How concerned are you about that primary? Because some of the polls suggest that she's running from behind.

GILLIBRAND: I have confidence that Janet Mills is a formidable candidate who will win the primary and win the general.

In the polling we've seen, she beats Susan Collins, and that's a tough thing to do. We know Janet is loved by her state. She's the only Democrat who's been elected in 20 years in that state.

And so we know she knows Mainers and what they're going through. She knows how important these cost drivers are. She has a record of fighting to get costs down and a record for fighting for health care for all Mainers.

And also she's taking on Trump. Not only has she stood up to him in the Oval Office and said, see you in court. But then she actually won. So she's a fighter. She's a known fighter and she can win statewide

and has won statewide. So I think she's the strongest. And I think she will beat Susan Collins.

RAJU: How concerned are you about Graham Platten, though, if he wins that primary, what it may mean for your chances in the general?

GILLIBRAND: I have confidence we are going to win Maine, and I have confidence.

RAJU: Even if Platten --

GILLIBRAND: And I have confidence we will have a formidable nominee and that nominee will beat Susan Collins.

RAJU: You know, because also her age, I mean, she would be almost 80. Is that a concern, particularly given what happened with Joe Biden?

GILLIBRAND: She's a proven fighter and her voters continue to vote for her over and over again. And particularly in Maine, there's a group of voters that vote for Susan, often older women who are Democrats. If older women who are Democrats have a choice between a Democratic governor they love and a senator who failed them on Kavanaugh, and a senator who failed them on standing up to Trump, I think they're going to pick Janet.

Also, Susan's numbers are the lowest they've been in a very long time. She's in the 30s. So I just think that creates opportunity for us. It creates a climate to us.

RAJU: You mentioned the path. There are primaries you have to worry about, including in Michigan and this is a Democratic seat. How are you going to handle that? And are you worried about that?

GILLIBRAND: No, we are going to have a formidable candidate in Michigan, too. And Michigan has not gone Republican in 30 years. So I am confident that we will have a strong nominee.

[08:44:51]

GILLIBRAND: The opponent is weak. He did poorly last cycle. He's going to do poorly this cycle. Last cycle, he had the benefit of President Trump helping him. He will not have that this cycle. So I think Mike Rogers is just going to be beat by our nominee. And I --

(CROSSTALKING)

RAJU: Some of your members want to jump -- you have to jump in and dive in and get behind the candidate. Will you do that in Michigan?

GILLIBRAND: I'm certain we will have the best candidate in Michigan.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RAJU: All right. My panel is back. Now, the Republican senatorial committee responding to Kirsten Gillibrand. They're telling me that the Democrats battleground map is littered with failed career politicians no longer aligned with the values of their states. And messy, nasty primaries.

So look, in some ways, they're right about the messy primaries. They have a ton of -- several of them. And Kirsten Gillibrand, very clear, not taking a position on Michigan, which is going to be a challenge for them as well.

And look, two of these Democrats who are running, Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola, they lost statewide in 2024.

BLAKE: Yes, I think the primaries are an issue, but sometimes that's also a symptom of when your side has some momentum. A lot of people are interested in running because they think those races are winnable.

I think the Maine primary is potentially a big problem for them, but I thought it was really interesting in that interview that that Kirsten Gillibrand brought up two seats that are kind of the majority makers that she suggested were Ohio and Alaska.

Because there's kind of this this group of five states that are like double digit Trump states. And Democrats need to win two of them in order to take the majority. It's a very difficult path.

But it seems to be kind of coalescing around the idea that those two states are Ohio with Sherrod Brown and Alaska now with Mary Peltola.

RAJU: And didn't mention Texas.

BLAKE: And did not mention Texas, did not mention, you know, those other ones are Florida, Iowa are kind of these outside shots that Democrats have. So maybe that's a sign of where they're focusing their attention.

RAJU: They really have to just run the table to take back the Senate. I mean, they have to hold Georgia. They've got to hold Michigan. They've got to hold New Hampshire. And then they got to win in these red states. Very, very difficult path. But there is a narrow pathway which she discussed there.

Ok I want to talk about what else happened last night. Donald Trump posted a Truth Social post that is really rattling a critical Republican senator's own reelection chances. He posted about Congresswoman Julia Letlow. She's a Louisiana congresswoman. She said -- he said to her, should she decide to enter this race, referring to the race, that for the seat that is now occupied by Senator Bill Cassidy, he said, Julia Letlow has my complete and total endorsement. Run, Julia, run.

And President Donald J. Trump -- look, this is -- the whole thing is just a remarkable situation. Bill Cassidy, he's the chairman of a key committee in the Senate, the health committee. He helped usher through RFK Jr. to the post. He was the critical vote to confirm RFK Jr.

Has tried to make amends with Trump because of his vote to convict Trump in the second impeachment trial after January 6th. Clearly, Trump has not forgotten that and now is trying to blow up his reelection.

KANNO-YOUNGS: It seems political retribution is still a theme here as we approach year two, right? I mean, and to your point look, Senator Cassidy, he -- I mean, he was critical of RFK Jr. during those hearings and still voted for him. He basically delivered, you know, him as HHS secretary. Not enough.

RAJU: Yes, it is really never enough for Trump.

TREENE: He has -- he's one of those people who has a very long memory and never forgets things. And look, this would be fascinating if -- to see if they actually go in and really try to usher in.

That will be the true test of whether this is just the president posting about it, or if they're going to actually try to kind of oust Cassidy here.

RAJU: I wonder if Cassidy's wondering, oh, I did all this, for what? You know. All right, we'll see. Big development there.

All right. Coming up, a second chance again. Trump grants clemency for one woman twice. More details on the president's latest batch of pardons. That's next.

[08:48:52]

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RAJU: Two stories that flew under the radar this week. So nice, why not free her twice? President Trump on his way out of his -- out of office in 2021, freed a convicted fraudster, Adriana Camberos, by commuting her sentence.

Then three years later, Camberos and her brother Andres were convicted yet again on separate fraud charges. But now they are free yet again. And yes, thanks to President Trump, who on Friday quietly pardoned the two siblings amid a batch of new acts of clemency to begin this holiday weekend.

Also pardoned the former Puerto Rico governor, Wanda Vazquez, who is facing time for bribery charges related to her 2020 campaign.

The White House says these new pardons reversed what it says were politically motivated prosecutions launched during the Biden administration.

They are among around 1,600 people Trump has given clemency to in this past year alone, including many allies, supporters and donors.

Next, Democrats are making one of their most aggressive moves in the gerrymandering wars to date. In Virginia this past week, Democrats launched a complicated, multi-step process to give their party a chance to pick up several more House seats in this year's midterms.

They currently hold six of the 11 U.S. House seats in Virginia, and party leaders are in serious talks about redrawing state lines to flip up to four more seats, potentially giving Democrats a 10-to-1 advantage in the delegation.

[08:54:56]

RAJU: Now, redistricting typically happens at the beginning of a decade to reflect a new census, but Trump pushed Texas to add five more GOP seats, and that has spawned a gerrymandering arms race across the country. Republicans could possibly net three seats, so if Democrats succeed in Virginia, all of this could amount to a wash.

It comes as a new Democratic governor, Abigail Spanberger, was sworn in yesterday but has yet to throw her full support behind her party's most hawkish redistricting efforts.

That's it for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. You can follow me on X @mkraju, follow the show @INSIDE POLITICS. And you can also find me on TikTok and Instagram.

And remember, in the United States, you can now stream INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY live or catch up later on the CNN app. Visit CNN.com/watch for more.

Up next, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER AND DANA BASH". Jake's guests include Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, former vice president Mike Pence, and Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego.

Thanks again for sharing your morning -- Sunday morning with us.

Go Bears. Beat the Rams.

And we'll see you next time.

[08:55:59]

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