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Inside Politics

Texas GOP Lawmaker On Dem Upset: "100 Percent Concerned"; GOP Loses Texas Special Election Despite Last-Minute Trump Push; Poll: Majority Say Country Worse Off Now Than One Year Ago; Partial Govt. Shutdown Expected To Last Until At Least Tomorrow; Five-Year-Old Liam Ramos Released From ICE Detention; Trump To Close Kennedy Center For Two Years For Renovations. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired February 02, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Texas hold 'em. Democrats are stacking their blue chips in a red state, while Republicans start to sweat their next hand.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

We begin the Saturday night surprise in Texas that has Republicans shaking a bit in their cowboy boots. A Democrat won a state senate district that President Trump won handily in 2024, it was a 17- percentage point win. Yes, there was a snowstorm, and yes, there was low turnout.

One Texas Republican lawmaker, though, told me bluntly this morning. He is 100 percent concerned. Another told me that it's proof the GOP needs to organize to deliver turnout, which was weak and energy. In Florida, GOP Governor Ron DeSantis is warning his party, quote, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed. Republicans should be clear eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms.

Now we're talking about Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a 33-year-old union worker, veteran and first-time candidate. Here is what he said about his shocking victory.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TAYLOR REHMET, (D) TEXAS STATE SENATE-ELECT: This is a win for working people. That's why I think we have this. That was our focus. Working people, you know, the folks that work every single day in the senate district, they're looking for something different.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: And our terrific panel is here to break this all down, including our political director, David Chalian?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR & WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Yeah. I mean, this is both part of a pattern that we've seen democratic over performance in these special elections and in the actual off year elections last November in Virginia, New Jersey. And yet, it is still stunning to see, even though it is part of pattern, because the swing was so wide, a Trump plus 17-district. That's not like history of Donald. That was just a year ago, November 2024, that he won --

BASH: It's 31-point swings, it's just over a year.

CHALIAN: Exactly. So, plus 14 points, the Democrat wins by that's a 31-point swing. That is larger than the kind of over performance we've been seeing on -- when you look at the averages, it's also about where, where this took place, Tarrant County, Fort Worth, area. You can look in some of the Latino heavy precincts and see the swing. And this is what we saw in Virginia, New Jersey last year as well.

This is part of the coalition that Donald Trump put together in November of 2024, some key pieces like the Latino vote and the inroads he made. That is not durable. It is proving not to be durable from -- and I don't think it's very hard to figure out why. I mean, look at the environment we're in. This isn't just the economy and affordability anymore. It is also this overreach on ICE enforcement that is changing people's perceptions, swing voters' perceptions about the administration. I think you see it on display in these results.

BASH: So, it's not just about the economy, but that was very much his focus in this campaign. Let's listen to an example from one of his ads.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I mean, the Republicans are fearing everything that happened Saturday night, not just what happened in Texas, but we're seeing this time and time again in all these special elections. We're seeing a Democratic base, and poll after poll that is far more motivated than the Republican base. The question that I have is, how are the Republicans going to try to change this, right?

Because you've heard the White House say, more Donald Trump, that's going to bring us back to keep us in power, even the Republican -- House Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Richard Hudson told me about a week and a half ago or so, he said, yeah, we want Trump on the campaign trail. We want to campaign with Trump. He brings out our voters.

But is that really the recipe here is, given the message the voters are sending, how will the Republicans have to recalibrate, given where we're seeing. So many concerns about what's happening on the whole range and a wide range of issues, namely, as the Democrat in the race here affordability, which the Republicans are having such a hard time connecting with the American public that they actually have a recipe for this.

[12:05:00]

BASH: And it's not as if? Yes, it's a state Senate race in Texas, in -- like, the office of -- I mean, it's a special election. But the president did try to help, Justin, he didn't go down there a campaign or anything. But just in a series of social media posts. He was trying to get people to get out and vote, and you see them up on the screen there.

TIA MITCHELL, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, THE ATLANTA JOURNAL- CONSTITUTION: Yeah. And I mean, the Democrat was widely outspent, like, you know, it was not even close --

BASH: Multi close, yeah.

MITCHELL: Yeah. So, I think it goes to show that candidate quality matters. I think the Democrats had a candidate that could really speak even to conservative leaning voters in that district. I think it also goes to show you that, again, that focus on affordability. If you're talking about the things that voters want to hear about, and you're relaying a clear message on how you're going to address the issues that are most important to voters.

And I think that's really where Republicans are really struggling, and that's why there's such an enthusiasm gap. Because we've got, as we know, this split within the Republican Party, whether you want to remain loyal to Trump at all costs, or whether you're willing to say, hey, the president isn't quite doing what we elected him to do. And because of that split, there's just this, this big enthusiasm gap with a lot of voters saying, I'm going to stay home. I can't get behind these candidates.

BASH: So, there's an enthusiasm gap, but you referenced this. There's also a big fund-raising gap that is in the Republicans favor going forward. Michelle, just look at the war chest for both parties. The RNC has $95 million, the DNC has only $14 million. And then if you just look at MAGA Inc., which is probably the most important year, the fundraising total, $304 million cash on hand.

MICHELLE PRICE, WHITE HOUSE REPORTER, AP: Yeah. I mean, we -- one of the things we don't know quite yet is how the president's political operation tends to spend their war chest separate from the RNC money. But this is a big problem for Democrats, but money we saw in this Texas race. It's not everything, but it is a big factor.

One of the things that we saw in the 2024 election were some of the ads that the Republicans ran at the end of the race, the one that said that Kamala Harris doesn't care about -- she cares about they them. She doesn't care about you. That was an effective ad in some of those mid-term or some of those swing mid-term -- some of the swing seats in 2024.

So, saving that money, using that very effectively can be decisive. The one issue with this is that when your main spokesperson, President Donald Trump, is not on message, he could drown out all that money that they spend on ads.

BASH: Yeah. And David, so much has changed in how we cover politics. You said, like in the last 10 years. Thanks to Donald Trump. I think one thing that has not changed is one of the key things that we all look at to figure out how things are going, which is the so-called right track, wrong track polling number or polling data. Fox poll question last week, is the country better or worse off than a year ago? Better 31 percent, worse 54 percent, and same, which is probably not so great, because people didn't feel great going into the beginning of last year. I'm not sure if we have this poll. If not, I'll just tell you. That was 16 percent, but the key -- there you go. The key thing to see are people, 54 percent more than majority feel worse, 16 percent the same.

CHALIAN: Yes. I mean, this is a key metric that we've looked at. We've also seen a disenchanted American electorate for the better part of more than a decade now, where they are constantly feeling, the country is on the wrong track and not in the right direction.

The other key metric that I think is going to play so critically into this is what you were alluding to Tia, which is that, in poll after poll, Dana, we are seeing a majority of Americans say, Donald Trump is not focused on the right priorities, and Donald Trump's policies on the economy and affordability have actually made things worse.

That, that to me, is going to be a key problem for the president and his party to solve. As Manu was saying, like, how they're going to turn around that impression in these months to come. You are right. We change a lot in covering politics, because it's changed how politics gets engaged, but mid-term elections are referendums on the incumbent president. And by the way, Susie Wiles, White House Chief of Staff, she said she wants it that way. She wants Donald Trump on the ballot.

RAJU: I'll be really interested and see the Denver (Ph), the Republicans who start to abandon Trump because of the fact that voters are saying that his policies are making things worse. But as we know, when Donald Trump gets abandoned by Republicans, he goes after them. So maybe that's not necessary. So that complicates how they're going to handle this going forward.

BASH: It's a good point. All right. We're going to sneak in a quick break. Up next. A partial government shutdown could be just the beginning of a DHS homeland security funding fight. We're just going to discuss how Democrats are using their leverage, next.

[12:10:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: It's Groundhog Day, which means two things here in the nation's capital, where we still have snowcrete, blanking the city rather. We're going to have six more weeks of winter it seems. Part of the government is shut down again. That's another aspect of Groundhog Day. It's very frustrating, but a pattern that we've somehow gotten used to. This time the fight is over how to fund the Department of Homeland Security. House Speaker Mike Johnson's math is complicated, but he insists he's optimistic.

[12:15:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA): I'm confident that we'll do it, at least by Tuesday. We have a logistical challenge of getting everyone in town, and because of the conversation I had with Hakeem Jeffries, I know that we've got to pass a rule and probably do this mostly on our own.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: And let's level set here. The House balance of power now stands at 218 to 214. So, the House speaker can't guarantee that he will get the votes. And he certainly can't guarantee all of his members will vote yes. My panel is back here, including, luckily, Manu Raju. What's the latest on your reporting?

RAJU: It's really uncertain how this is going to play out. I mean, it's possible, Johnson is right. They could pass something tomorrow. The government shutdown will be about four days. It started on Saturday. It's very possible he doesn't have the votes either. What it's going to take is significant amount of pressure on some of these conservative holdouts to flip, and Donald Trump is going to have to get heavily involved to get this through.

Now the process is going to be that the House Rules Committee is going to take the first procedural step today, and then they're going to send what's known as the rule to the House floor tomorrow. That sets the parameters for floor debate. That is -- that rule needs to be approved by Republicans because Democrats are not going to vote for it. And he can only lose to -- for lose one Republican vote Mike Johnson, which means he's got to keep everybody in line. But there are a lot of those hardliners who are upset with various things in this proposal.

So that raises a lot of questions. What will Johnson do? What I expect him to do? He'll go to the floor tomorrow, keep the floor vote open for a very long time, twist arms, get Trump on the phone, and eventually, maybe he will get there, but if he doesn't, then he's going to need Democratic support. And Hakeem Jeffries made clear that even though this deal was cut last week with Chuck Schumer in the White House, they were not party. The House Democrats were not part of this deal, and they'll want something in exchange in order to get their votes.

BASH: And let me just talk about some of the specifics that we're discussing that you've been reporting on, that is in this deal, which is to come after the two weeks. What the Democrats have been demanding, ICE wearing body cameras and removing masks, ending roving patrols, tightening warrants and comparable force policies to state and local law enforcement.

Let's just stay on that warrant question. And I spoke with -- well, let's listen to what Hakeem Jeffries said about that, and Ron Johnson, who I spoke with the senator, but obviously he's echoing a lot of what House Republicans are saying. I spoke with him on State of the Union.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY): The administrative warrants, in our view, aren't worth the paper they are written on. As a condition of moving forward, in my view, I think this is a broadly held perspective shared by Democrats in the House and the Senate need judicial warrants.

SEN. RON JOHNSON (R-WI): Their primary demand was judicial warrants, which is completely unacceptable. Now, when they flooded the border with millions of people, you've got to do that through administrative warrants.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MITCHELL: So again, this is what Democrats want, even whether it's as part of the deal that gets through the House floor or whether it's part of the negotiations over the next two weeks, because that's only how long Department of Homeland Security would be funded, is basically tightening the ways that ICE can go in and say, we have the legal permissions to, you know, pick someone up and take them into custody.

And I think it's a very -- as you just saw from Leader Jeffries and Senator Johnson, these are fundamental differences. These are very big differences, even down to the body cameras in the masks. I mean, I think most people at home say, you know, sounds reasonable, but I think when you get into the actual politics of getting it done, Republicans and Democrats are on very different sides on this.

And so -- and I just want to go back to what Manu who said about the floor vote. I mean, these -- Mike Johnson brings bills to the floor, not having the votes. And then he spends hours, sometimes figuring out how he's going to get the outcome he needs. And in the meantime, it's not just the media or the people watching at home who are confused. The lawmakers who are on the floor are like, we don't know. We're trying to figure it out. And it's just, I can just imagine what tomorrow might be.

CHALIAN: And the figuring out, I think, depends who is going to rely a lot on Donald Trump, right? I mean, that's, that's the figuring out of how to get this done.

BASH: And part of the math is something that I think we need to also look at, which is, bear with us now because -- but this is important on the politics. This homeland security funding already passed the House. And with that passage, there were more than a handful of House Democrats who voted yes.

Many of them have said that maybe that was a bad idea. There was some blow back. We can put the list. I believe we have of those Democrats who voted yes before. Tom Suozzi, who was from sort of a swinging area in New York, said point blank, that he made a mistake. Others have sort of voiced various degrees of regret.

[12:20:00]

CHALIAN: But timing is everything here. We need to specify why we are where we are. It's because of the killing of Alex Pretti.

BASH: Right, but that vote happened before.

CHALIAN: That's an intervening event, right?

BASH: Right.

CHALIAN: So, that vote happened before, then Alex Pretti -- after the Renee Good killing, but then Alex Pretti gets killed, and you see Tom Suozzi expressing regret. You see the Senate Democrats, you know, saying this is not going to happen without separating DHS out. As you noted, this funding already passed the House. It's back in the House now because of the response that Democrats have had, and Republicans have buckled to because of the outrage across the country because of Pretti's killing.

BASH: And also, sort of the background music, if you will, that is going along with this is some of these issues moving through the courts, including another incident that happened before Alex Pretti was killed, which is the image that caught the whole world's attention, of the young boy, the five-year-old boy, getting taken away with his father, and he was released over the weekend. And the judge who released it wrote a very, very direct opinion.

I want to read part of it. The case has its genesis in the ill- conceived and incompetently implemented government pursuit of daily deportation quotas, apparently even if it requires traumatizing children. Observing human behavior confirms that for some among us, the perfidious lust for unbridled power and the imposition of cruelty in its quest know no bounds and are bereft of human decency, and the rule of law be damned.

PRICE: I mean, that is pretty stark ruling from a judge, and we're seeing more and more, I don't want to call it commentary, but something along the lines of commentary from judges in these rulings. You know that image of that little boy was just so salient, and it's something that has, along with Alex Pretti's killing it. This is a different landscape than it was a few weeks ago.

The one big X factor here is we still don't actually know when it comes to this legislation or any restrictions on homeland security. What Donald Trump specifically wants and is willing to push for. What details he is actually willing to get on board with? Over the weekend, he seemed open to body cameras without actually going there, but on all of these other issues where there are very firmly held positions in Congress, we don't actually know if he is going to help muscle through in any direction.

RAJU: That's the only way a deal can actually be reached, if Trump agrees to some sort of compromise with Democrats, because the Republicans, you heard what Mike Johnson said, you heard what Ron Johnson said to you, they're not willing to compromise. Trump will have to tell him too, but will he do that? That's the question.

BASH: All right, up next. President Trump announced a two-year intermission at the Kennedy Center. He says it's for renovations. I have some new reporting, and what another big reason might be.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:25:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: President Trump is closing the Kennedy Center for two years, starting July 4. He says it's for, quote, construction, revitalization and complete rebuilding. According to my reporting, there wasn't going to be much for audiences to see. A source familiar with the Kennedy Center's programming told me, quote, the Kennedy Center does not have a 2026, 2027 season. There would not have been any programming to announce.

This, of course, comes after the president named himself as chairman a year ago and slapped his name ahead of Kennedy's. On the wall there you see this, of course, is a memorial for the assassinated president.

My panel is back now. Michelle, you've done some reporting on this. What are you learning?

PRICE: Well, what's interesting is, in October, the president, I mean, all last year, the president has been talking about the changes he wants to make at the Kennedy Center. It's not clear why those would necessitate closing the Kennedy Center. You know, you can redo the carpet, change some of the upholstery, et cetera, without closing the whole thing down.

But we got to the point where the list of cancelations was longer than the list of people --

BASH: And we have a list --

PRICE: -- and it was between, like a weekly story, just another cancelation. But even in October, we saw the president, he was boasting, actually, on Truth Social, that it would remain open while he did all these changes. And it seems that something has changed in the last few days that he is pushing for this change now to close it for two years.

BASH: Yeah. And just to be precise, and I'm going to go to David now, because he's not only our political director, he's also our resident theater major. He does it all.

CHALIAN: You made me a theater, I did.

RAJU: I don't know, he can learn something every day.

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: At Northwestern Go Cats. The reality is that, just to go back to my reporting that the way that it works is that, you know, you have to work out far ahead on the calendar to get these shows and to get artists, musicians, dancers, all of them to agree for their -- to complete the schedule. And they have things lined up through the spring and early summer. You know, some pretty big productions. Mrs. Doubtfire, the outsiders, back to the future --

CHALIAN: Because they were lined up, probably two years ago. BASH: Because they were lined up beforehand, exactly, and those set for the next season, one by one, they pulled out. And they pulled out because they -- well, it's not just political, frankly. I'm told that they saw the mess there. They worried about infrastructure, about the fact that there's no marketing, that they are worried that no audiences will come, and so forth.

CHALIAN: Yeah. So, I think that's a clear concern on the side of the artists and politics is, no doubt, playing in some of their decision making as well. But to your point, I think that begs the question of, does -- what he envisioned doing to the physical space change now?

[12:30:00]