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Inside Politics

Israel Unleashes New Strikes Against Iran's Oil Storage Sites; Trump Says He Wants To Be Involved In Picking Iran's Leader; Democrats In A Bind As War With Iran Escalates. GOP Frets Crucial Texas Senate Race as Trump Weighs Options; Trump: "Great Change Will Soon Be Coming to Cuba"; Last Minute GOP Senate Swap Had Been Quietly in Works. Aired 8-9a ET

Aired March 08, 2026 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:28]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

(MUSIC)

MANU RAJU, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Escalation. Breaking overnight, Israel attacks Iran's oil sites as President Trump demands an unconditional surrender.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We want to pick a president that's not going to be leading the country into a war.

RAJU: But as gas prices tick up --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's crazy. We're going to pay for this.

RAJU: -- and the toll mounts, what is Trump's end game?

Plus, Cuban collapse? Trump threatens action closer to home.

TRUMP: Cuba's at the end of the line. They're very much at the end of the line.

RAJU: Is Cuba his next target?

And the mess in Texas, Democrats rejoice while Republicans scramble.

SEN. JOHN CORNYN (R-TX): Judgment day is coming for Ken Paxton.

KEN PAXTON (R), TEXAS SENATE CANDIDATE: John Cornyn has failed us time and time again?

RAJU: Will the president blow up a key Senate race?

INSIDE POLITICS, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.

(MUSIC)

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RAJU (on camera): Good morning. Welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. I'm Manu Raju.

Now in its ninth day, President Trump's military campaign has launched a reckoning against Iran, throwing it into disarray after the killing of the supreme leader. Combined with a relentless aerial bombardment all across the country. But as Iran remains defiant, there are mounting questions about Trump's main objective as his administration struggles to convey the end game to a world on edge, a region at war and a very skeptical American public.

New overnight, the war entering a new phase. Israel launching a fresh wave of attacks targeting Iran's oil storage sites and stunning new video from our CNN team on the ground shows black rain falling on the city of Tehran.

Meanwhile, Iran is retaliating with attacks in the gulf region, despite its president suggesting they would end. So, let's begin all this over coverage with CNN's Nick Paton Walsh. He's live for us in Tel Aviv.

So, Nick, walk us through what happened overnight and what's ahead.

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Look, a fast moving morning, a pivotal moment really for the war here. Let me just give you a quick snapshot of this morning here in Tel Aviv as often sirens, but normally a projectile flew overhead of where we are elements landing in the sea behind me but also black smoke now visible on the northern Tel Aviv skyline. Sounds of, well impacts. Always hard to tell if that's munitions or debris.

So, a sign that Iran, despite suggestions its missile stockpiles are diminished, is still trying to hit Tel Aviv here. But a frankly far more apocalyptic scene in Tehran. My colleague Fred Pleitgen, reporting the black oil residue coming down in rain, landing around his feet, black smoke that's a result of Israeli strikes as what they call the next phase of the conflict here, going after infrastructure, oil storage facilities that they say the military and Iran have indeed been using.

On top of that as well, we now have this troubling moment where it appears that desalination infrastructure in the Gulf has been targeted by Iran. That's huge because these gulf neighbors dragged into the war, frankly by Iran's retaliatory strikes. What Iran says a U.S. bases in these territories, obviously desalination so vital for sustaining life in those hot arid countries that is escalating fast.

But really, what I said to you, it's a pivotal moment is that in Iran, we are told through senior clerics speaking to state media that they have chosen a new supreme leader. That's utterly vital because President Trump has somewhat farfetched, said he wants to have a hand in choosing who that person is. He's ruled out this son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the man who an Israeli airstrike killed over a week ago now. But some of the hints from state media suggest that indeed, Mojtaba Khamenei might actually be the choice of the assembly of experts.

Still hard to tell at this point. And I should point out, we've had multiple days of suggesting that this pivotal choice for Iran is imminent but indeed, if it is somebody who President Trump has ruled out is appointed, that potentially suggests we are far from any kind of resolution here.

Although, look, listening to President Trump talking on Air Force One, coming back to Washington recently he's defining what surrender means. He's demanded surrender, and you get this sense, really that he can declare this war over at any given point, despite the region seeing it nothing but escalate -- Manu.

[08:05:07]

RAJU: All right. Nick Paton Walsh live for us in Tel Aviv, thank you so much.

And here in the room to provide some context on the war with Iran so far, retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton.

Colonel Leighton, thanks for being here.

Now, in day nine of this war, so much has happened. It's really hard sometimes for viewers to keep track of everything that's gone on. So, can you give us an overview of what we've seen so far in the attacks carried out by the United States and Israel?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Absolutely, Manu. So, yeah, you're right there's a lot going on here. And one of the key elements is really the fact that all of these areas here have been struck multiple times by both U.S. and Israeli aircraft and as well, tomahawk missiles.

So, the concentration is basically in the western part of the country, like this area right here near the Iraq border. And then in addition to that we also have the areas right in the south, right along this coastline, the Iranian coastline of the Persian Gulf. So, what this really means is that each of these areas has become really a concentrated fire zone for both the U.S. and Israel.

And note this, Tehran is a major area, and we saw that in a lot of the reporting this is the area where there's a lot of concentration, but also the religious city of Qom, Esfahan all of these places are major targets right now.

RAJU: And what about the retaliatory strikes we have seen from Iran and what can we expect in the coming days?

LEIGHTON: So, what the Iranians have been doing is basically hitting areas along the western shore of the Persian Gulf, as well as of course, here in Israel. They have also hit targets as diverse as Azerbaijan, parts of Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and even down in Oman and they've gone after areas in Saudi Arabia, including the Prince Sultan Air Base, as well as a major oil field right here on the UAE-Saudi border. RAJU: And, you know, there's obviously so much concern here in the

United States about the impact on people's pocketbooks, on gas prices, in particular the Strait of Hormuz. We hear a lot about.

So, walk us through about the situation there and how long that could play out.

LEIGHTON: So, this is a very critical waterway. So, what you've got here is about 20 percent of the oil traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz. And what that really means is 14 million barrels per day of unrefined products, six billion barrels per day of refined oil products. And what that does is it really shows us this area is the choke point right here and what that means is that each and every ship that goes through here is potentially at risk from being cut off by the Iranians.

The Iranians have basically shut this area down. And the reason they've done that is because they want to control the economies of the Gulf states such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and, of course, Saudi Arabia, as well.

RAJU: All right. Retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton, thank you so much for breaking down all of that and for your expertise.

And last night, aboard Air Force One, President Trump spoke about the war with Iran. He did not rule out sending U.S. ground troops. And also contradicted multiple analyzes that suggested the U.S. was likely responsible for a strike on an Iranian girls school that killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: In my opinion, based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran, we don't want to come back every five years or every ten years and do this. So, we want to pick a president that's not going to be leading the country into war.

REPORTER: What are the circumstances where you send in ground troops? How are you thinking about that?

TRUMP: I don't even want to talk about it now. I mean, it's I don't think it's an appropriate question. You know I'm not going to answer it.

Could there be? Possibly for very good reason.

REPORTER: You're going to end up coming back to Dover for more of these such dignified transfers?

TRUMP: Sure, I hate to do it, but it's a part of war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: All right. I'm joined now by a terrific group of reporters here in the room. CNN's Kristen Holmes, "The Atlantic's" Vivian Salama, and Leigh Ann Caldwell from "Puck News".

Good morning to you all. Nice to see you.

Kristen, you covered the White House. What is -- we heard what Trump is saying here. They've really been all over the map about what the objective is, what the end game is. What are you hearing about? What actually constitutes victory in the mind of Donald Trump?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's actually the big question that we've been trying to get to the bottom of. And we still don't really have an answer because it has shifted so much since the weeks we were talking about potentially striking in Iran. And the messaging has been, as you noted, all over the map.

This idea of one, President Trump at one point saying this has nothing to do with regime change than saying he wants to be the one that picks the next leader of Iran. They have laid out objectives that they have stayed with on the messaging in terms of destroying the missile capacity and the ability to make more or any kind of nuclear ambition. Those are some of them. But when it comes to what President Trump is actually doing and what -- what the end point is, we still have no idea.

[08:10:02]

RAJU: Yeah. And he's been talking about choosing the next leader of Iran. As Kristen noted, there's word that they have chosen another leader and even Trump just moments. You know, he had said a couple of days ago something along the lines of if it's a -- if it's not a democratic state, that's fine. But now he wants to choose the next supreme leader.

How do you -- what do you make of the way he's prosecuting the war right now?

VIVIAN SALAMA, THE ATLANTIC STAFF WRITER: I mean, there is a long history that shows us that forced regime change doesn't always go in U.S.'s favor certainly, but in any country's favor, the president has offered multiple rationales, as Kristen was saying, you know, my colleagues actually did a great story where within the first six days of the war, whether or not we're calling it a war but I'm going to just call it a war.

RAJU: I think we're calling it a war.

SALAMA: Trump barely calling it.

RAJU: He just said it was war. In fact, the last thing he said on Air Force One --

SALAMA: I know.

RAJU: -- which is war.

SALAMA: Which is a whole another issue. But within the first six days, they offered ten different rationales for why they were doing this including the imminent threat and regime change and helping the Iranian people.

Now the president is trying to come in there and, and forcibly change the leadership in - very akin to what we saw in Iraq in 2003 with the toppling of Saddam Hussein, which is the exact war that this administration has repeatedly said they do not want to repeat.

I covered the Iraq war --

RAJU: Trump has said that -- repeatedly talked about.

SALAMA: He has talked about it repeatedly and the issues then become that the U.S., too especially across the region you know, kind of represents this imperialist this imperialist power that comes and topples regimes, puts other regimes in place, you know, whether or not it's, you know the will of the people on the ground there or not that remains to be seen. And so, it's very problematic for a number of reasons. And history has proven that for us.

RAJU: And now he's not suggesting sending in ground troops. I mean, obviously, what happened in Iraq that U.S. had to send in ground troops to lead to the toppling of the Hussein regime, and Trump is not ruling out ground troops now, is that something he's just keeping out there, or is this a real possibility?

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL, PUCK NEWS CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: I mean, there's been reporting over the weekend that it's something that the White House is actively discussing. But when talking to sources and especially people on the Hill, the concern is if regime change and putting in the leader that you want is actually the goal that that automatically usually in most cases means ground troops, like you pointed out.

And so that means a much different war. That is --

RAJU: Higher casualties.

CALDWELL: Huge escalation on multiple levels. There's already, you know, the president has said that there are no concerns about munitions supply. Well, that's not what has been the conversation has been like on capitol hill, not just now, but for the past few years, there's been a concern about lack of munition supply.

So, this -- this could -- there's -- you know, well see where it goes. But it does have the very real possibility of escalating very quickly.

RAJU: There's that moment on Air Force One last night where Trump was asked about that strike on the Iranian girls school. Really tragic killing of at least 168 children, 14 teachers, there have been multiple analysis, CNN, other outlets that it looked likely the U.S. was responsible.

Trump comes out and says it was, quote, "done by Iran". And then Hegseth -- Pete Hegseth was right behind him and he was asked about it. He said, we're certainly investigating but the only sign that targets civilians is Iran -- not going as far as Trump. HOLMES: Well, I actually want to go back to the question that was

asked to Pete Hegseth, because I think that that shows just how vague Hegseth was. The question was after Trump answered, Pete Hegseth, do you agree with that, that it was Iran? And he said, we're still investigating, but Iran is the only one who targets civilians.

That is verbal jujitsu. He knew exactly what he was doing. He did not say anything. And this is a man who almost always backs President Trump.

So that gives you an idea of how he is processing all of the information that is coming in.

RAJU: We will see what ultimately comes out of that investigation.

All right. Coming up next for us, why Republicans are insisting the Iran war is not actually war.

Plus, as Democrats have their own internal feud brewing, some Republicans fear they are the ones who are losing the public debate.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. THOM TILLIS (R-NC): I know the Democrats -- you know, Democrat marketing department is doing pretty good because even in the midst of the war, they're shifting back to affordability.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:18:54]

RAJU: The Pentagon has yet to detail the costs of the war in Iran, but at least one estimate pins it close to $1 billion per day. One expert says a two-month war could cost taxpayers $95 billion. That means the debate over the war and whether to fund it will land on Capitol Hill, where Democrats will have significant leverage.

Now, I spoke to many Democrats and asked them how they will handle it, and there's no one clear answer.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Would you support funding this war?

SEN. CHRIS MURPHY (D-CT): I mean, not a single senator who opposes this war should support a additional dollar for Iran. If they bring a request for funding before congress, we should draw a line in the sand.

SEN. CORY BOOKER (D-NJ): I'm not going to support funding for something that they refuse to even come before Congress and justify in open hearings.

REP. JARED MOSKOWITZ (D-FL): I think the idea that we have our troops right now overseas on battleships and planes in our bases -- you know, the idea of defunding them in the middle of that, that doesn't seem like the right move to me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[08:20:04]

RAJU: All right. The panel is back with me now.

So, this is significant because the administration came to Capitol Hill last week and said that they were going to need additional money. We don't know how much money this could be. Tens of billions of dollars, but that means congress has to approve it, which means Democrats particularly in the Senate will have enough votes to block this if they want to allow this war to go forward.

But how -- the debate you're hearing there is on one side saying, we can't fund this. We don't even know exactly what the objective is. On the other side, U.S. troops are in harm's way. How do we not fund this?

CALDWELL: Yeah, I think it's going to be really difficult for Democrats. I think it's going to -- it's going to split along ideological lines, most likely. You know they're going to need eight Democrats in the Senate probably to in order to pass any sort of funding. But the question is a lot can happen between now and when that funding request is in. You know --

RAJU: We haven't even had a public hearings yet.

CALDWELL: Right and I was talking to Democratic senators last week about, you know, if the administration is giving an end game like what? How this is going to move forward. And they said, we are not even in that phase yet. We are still trying to even understand, like what is happening in the moment and what the current objectives are.

And so, there's a lot of time, I think, between now and when that funding request could come, even if it's only a couple of weeks, because things are moving so quickly in developing in different directions so rapidly.

RAJU: How much do you think this is going to cost? I mean, is there any way to know how much this is going to cost? And how do you see that debate playing out?

SALAMA: Well, obviously, it depends how long this war goes on excuse me. And we've heard estimates of anywhere from a few weeks to several months. You know, some Pentagon estimates say they're planning for this to continue until September, which would be extraordinary on so many levels, not to mention the midterm elections coming in November.

But to Leigh Ann's point, you know, Democrats are in a real bind right now because you have troops that are literally being killed in action as we speak and they have this dilemma right now where on the one hand, they want to assert their war powers -- you know, their ability to be able to declare war, this constitutional right for Congress. On the other hand, they do not want to be seen as holding back. Excuse me.

RAJU: It's Daylight Savings Time.

SALAMA: Definitely. They don't want to be seen as holding back any money that would potentially support those troops, as they are on the front lines, you know, so to speak.

And so, this is going to be something that is going to really continue to build over the next few days.

RAJU: And the question is going to be the economic pressure on Republicans, too. How long will they stay in line behind Donald Trump as they see gas prices continue to tick up?

Look at the -- just the current national average for gasoline as of this morning, $3.45. This is up about almost $0.50 from last week alone. What are you hearing from the administration about the concerns about affordability is supposed to be the issue of the election?

HOLMES: They're very concerned about the gas prices because remember, the gas prices are one thing that they've been leaning very heavily on this idea that they have seen a systematic lowering of gas prices. And you heard president Trump kind of try to touch on this when he was meeting with the German chancellor, saying well, prices are going to go up, but only briefly, and then they'll go back down but we know behind the scenes there has been a massive effort between administration officials across the cabinet to try and figure out ways to lower the gas prices. I mean one of the things we saw on Friday was this release from the treasury department where they were going to actually allow India to keep buying Russian oil, even though there's been a whole ban on that, because they need oil coming into the market because there is not oil and obviously now we've seen, you know, they blew up one of the oil refineries in Iran. Like this is -- this is a huge problem for them.

RAJU: Yeah, and the American public how they will view this war too, obviously right now not very popular. And as we know, as military campaigns drag on, it tends to get much worse. Right now, independents 58 percent say they should not have struck Iran. We'll see how that number, if it ticks up in the weeks ahead.

And we'll also see how Republicans deal with the question that I've been putting to them. Other reports I'm putting to them about what is actually happening here. Is it a war or is it not a war? It's very clear what is happening they took the U.S. and Israel. They went after the supreme leader, they taken over the gone after the navy assets, the airspace. We saw everything that happened overnight.

So, why aren't Republicans calling this a war?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Why not authorize this war? Vote to authorize, like he did with Iraq and Afghanistan?

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): No, that's just a ridiculous idea that Congress has to authorize a war.

RAJU: Do you think this is a war right now?

REP. TIM BURCHETT (R-TN): No, I do not.

REP. TOM COLE (R-OK): It's military action.

REP. BRIAN MAST (R-FL): Whether somebody wants to call it a battle, a war, a combat operation. I'm not really interested in the semantics of it.

SEN. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-AL): I wouldn't call this a war as much as I'd call it a conflict that should be very short and sweet, if you can put it that way.

RAJU: Do you know acknowledge that there's a war? This is war right now?

REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: I think it's an operation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: An operation?

CALDWELL: Yeah. Speaker Mike Johnson very good with words always. But the reason they're not calling it a war is because, first of all, there's a war authorization that Republicans just rejected last week. If it is an official war, then that could trigger some more additional congressional authority or the pressure to at least put forward some congressional authority. So there's a legal reason for that.

Also, optics, they want to downplay this as much as possible for the American people for the public, especially in a midterm election year. They do not want this to -- they do not want this to go on and on they want it to be an operation. They want it to be a short and sweet situation. We'll see

SALAMA: But this is going to get increasingly more complicated as we have U.S. troops dying in battle, and especially if ground troops enter the picture, then they are going to have a really difficult time trying to justify to the American people that this is not a war.

RAJU: Yeah, and how do you go continue this dragging out without a vote in Congress? That's obviously an issue that's going to continue to dominate, especially if ground troops have to be sent in and what the public hearings to.

That's another thing we have not heard from administration officials testifying in a public setting about their objective. What's next? Will that happen? We shall see.

All right coming up, Republicans are nervous as a threat (ph) from Trump looms over a key race in Texas.

Plus, why are more and more lawmakers running for the exits? Our latest reporting, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:31:14]

MANU RAJU, CNN HOST: It has been four days since President Trump said he would finally get off the sidelines and endorse in the country's most expensive fight for the GOP Senate nomination in Texas. Republican leaders had thought he was finally poised to back the longtime incumbent Senator John Cornyn.

But MAGA world has been up in arms pressing Trump to throw his weight behind the hard right State Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Yet if he backs Paxton, GOP leaders warn it could cost the party several hundred million dollars to salvage his campaign in a general election.

And if Trump continues to waffle, the Paxton-Cornyn feud would burn up piles of cash destined to be spent in other battlegrounds.

My panel is back.

So what's up with Trump right now? Because he's talking about he wants to get the Save America Act passed. That's the bill that has no chance of passing the United States Senate because Democrats are opposed. They don't have the votes in the Senate.

This would require proof of citizenship to vote and require voter I.D. Democrats are fiercely opposed. He told Dana Bash when he was asked about this on Friday. He said, I want that passed, the Save America Act. That's the most important thing ever. He was asked about the Texas race and he said that.

And just now he posted on Truth Social. "No, he's not going to sign other bills until the Save America Act is passed."

Ok. That aside, is Trump having second thoughts on getting involved?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Yes.

RAJU: Ok.

HOLMES: So essentially everything that was reported at the time is true that he put on social media. He has been -- had a lot of people in his ear, a lot of advisers that he's close to, a lot of leadership that he respects, telling him you need to back Senator Cornyn. It's the only way -- like there's a chance we could lose in Texas with Paxton.

And in addition to that, we're going to spend so much money on this runoff in a state that is generally red, that we could win easily. Like let's get this done.

So when he posted that, there was a general belief that he was going to endorse Cornyn. However, a lot of Cornyn's advisers got out there, as well as leadership advisers started telling media outlets he's going to endorse Cornyn which one, enraged the president.

He was incredibly angry that there was this idea that he -- that people were saying this, which, of course, is also why you saw Cornyn be like, I have no idea. I'm learning about this for the first time. He handled it. But the people in that sphere were telling reporters that.

And then you had this insane MAGA backlash of people calling President Trump directly, being like you cannot do this. Your base will be so angry. And you saw them getting through to President Trump.

So now the question is, what does he do? He's sitting there and he's looking at this and he in -- he does understand the money aspect of this. He does understand the risk of endorsing Paxton, for example.

But he's also said he's going to endorse somebody --

RAJU: Yes.

HOLMES: -- so that's where we are in this moment.

RAJU: It's amazing. Because the money game, just to give a sense of what Kristen is talking about here, $69 million was spent in the Texas Republican primary just for pro-Cornyn forces alone. That was in the primary through March 2nd and about 95 million was spent total.

That's the most expensive primary in the history of the country of any Senate race. And now we're in a two-month runoff between Paxton and Cornyn where they can spend roughly $200 million more.

And I asked Cornyn about this, when I was down in Texas recently and about the case that he's making to Donald Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN CORNYN (R-TX): So I think we've made the business case to him. It's not based on emotion. It's not about me.

[08:34:48]

CORNYN: But I think Republicans and the president and his agenda will be much better off if I'm the nominee.

RAJU: I mean, you knew -- there was a point where you had criticized Trump, whether it was after January 6th or questioned his viability in 2024. Do you regret any of those comments?

CORNYN: Well, I think President Trump has proved a lot of us wrong. I've worked closely with the president and will continue to do so. 99.3 percent of the time is not bad.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: I mean, that kind of speaks to it, right? Because there are some times that Cornyn, he did, he did cut a deal on a big bipartisan gun law that he's had to defend on the campaign trail. LEIGH ANN CALDWELL, PUCK NEWS CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Yes.

RAJU: But, you know, he's made the business case, but Trump is not sold on the business case yet. At least it doesn't seem so.

CALDWELL: No. Cornyn allies say that it was a huge coup in the in the primary before the runoff that Trump did not endorse in that. Of course, Cornyn wanted the endorsement but keeping Trump out was a big deal.

But another thing that I'm pretty confident that Trump is being told is that Paxton's strategy and his campaign team also really messed up. He did not campaign until the last couple of weeks. He hardly spent any money. He was so confident that he was going to not stave off a runoff, but at least beat Cornyn in the primary.

RAJU: Yes. He came in second in the --

CALDWELL: He came in second behind Cornyn, which was Cornyn's entire strategy to get at least close to Paxton to show Trump that he could do well.

So there has been a lot of mishandling on the Paxton side as well. But what it also comes down to for Trump, as you said, is, you know his base. He really cares what his base thinks and his base does not love John Cornyn.

RAJU: You know, one of the things that we saw on Tuesday was just the surge in turnout on the Democratic side. I mean, just look at the numbers here. 2.3 million Texas primary election turnout; 2.16 for Republicans.

I mean that's a significant amount we've seen also in these majority Latino counties in Texas as well -- higher turnout as well. I mean Texas is a state that always Democrats think that they can win Texas and they don't win Texas. It's been decades since a Democrat could win statewide in Texas. Can this year be different?

VIVIAN SALAMA, "THE ATLANTIC": Well, they are definitely hoping that this year is different and especially after the 2024 elections where President Trump actually got a bump from a lot of Latino and black voters. And they were very proud of that. He really -- they really put him over the top.

And so they're hoping to kind of maintain those voters both in the midterms and then kind of moving forward. But that has been something that they're very -- they're struggling with. And they know that going into this midterm election.

RAJU: We've seen enthusiasm on the Democratic side. Can the Republicans match it?

One thing as we go to break. Just -- there was some news over the weekend of Darrell Issa, the longtime Republican from California, announcing he was retiring, not going to run for reelection in his gerrymandered district in California. Now we have 35 Republicans who are leaving the House at the end of the

term compared to 21 Democrats. That gives Democrats some more hope of taking back the House.

And that's the most amount of ties, the most amount of Republicans leaving since it tied two times, two records -- 2018 and 1930. And we'll see if any other Republicans decide to retire and break that record.

All right. Coming up, yet another military campaign on the table. This one closer to home. Well, Trump seemed to suggest so.

[08:38:13]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

RAJU: Even as there is no end in sight to the U.S. campaign against Iran, President Trump already has his sights set on a new target.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: As we achieve a historic transformation in Venezuela, we're also looking forward to the great change that will soon be coming to Cuba.

Cuba's at the end of the line. They're very much at the end of the line. They have no money, they have no oil.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: And this came as President Trump told our colleague Dana Bash on Friday. He said this unsolicited, unprovoked in their phone conversation. "Cuba is going to fall pretty soon," he says.

Now, good thing we have Vivian Salama here at the table because she's written repeatedly about the Cuba operation as it's unfolding. You wrote this for "The Atlantic" saying "Venezuela and Cuba fit into the administration's oft-articulated objective of solidifying dominance in the western hemisphere, a goal that since Trump's reelection, has included threats to annex Greenland, take over the Panama Canal and make Canada the 51st state."

SALAMA: Yes. So --

RAJU: Is it real?

SALAMA: It's real. So when I -- when he first removed Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela, I started calling around to advisers and said, you know, are you going -- is this part of your plan to go after Cuba? And they laughed at me, literally.

They were like still sweating from the Venezuela operation and said, you know, come on, we got to focus on one thing at a time. That was two months ago, guys.

Now, we have since threatened to annex Greenland we have started military operations -- massive military operations in Iran.

And even as the bombs were just starting to fly over Iran, I started calling around advisers again, saying Cuba. And they said the president is feeling good now and thinks now is the time.

RAJU: Does that mean military action?

SALAMA: That means some sort of military action, at least to potentially remove the post-Castro regime. They don't know to what extent they want to do it.

[08:44:48]

SALAMA: But they do feel that the administration there, the regime there is significantly weakened, partially because of the Venezuela operations -- largely, I should say, because of that, that they believe now is the time.

And the president is feeling very good, and he feels that that would sort of cement his foreign policy legacy where he'd be among like Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in terms of his foreign policy.

Of course, all this comes with the backdrop that the U.S. economy --

RAJU: Yes.

SALAMA: -- is in a -- in a dire place.

RAJU: And then what? I mean if he does go into Cuba?

HOLMES: Well, I will say this. I think one thing that we have to look back on is the fact that this has always been an end game for Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This is something he has talked about for a decade. And he has talked about specifically overthrowing Venezuela in order to overthrow Cuba.

The fact that Venezuela -- the Cubans were giving Venezuelans money, that their security forces are propping up Cuba. So this has been part of what he has put out there as an end game thing -- something that America should be involved in. And obviously Rubio is Cuban American.

RAJU: Very personal for him.

HOLMES: It's very personal

SALAMA: It's also been a -- it's been an issue for seven decades of American presidents of both parties. Cuba, particularly.

HOLMES: Right.

RAJU: No question. And it's -- whatever happened to Trump when he ran on the campaign trail, said that, you know, the whole MAGA thing. Remember that make America great again? It wasn't really supposed to be going after country after country after country. I don't recall hearing that much on the campaign trail. But just look at the number of targets -- military actions in Trumps second term. There is, of course, Venezuela, Nigeria, Somalia -- I mean, the list goes on and on. And now Cuba.

CALDWELL: Yes, he ran as an isolationist. He is the opposite of that. And that's actually why I think he's getting a lot of support from Republicans on the Hill, because this is the traditional neocon conservative belief of American interventionism. And he's doing exactly that.

RAJU: And going past beyond just --

CALDWELL: More than that.

RAJU: -- your typical neocon.

CALDWELL: Yes.

RAJU: Yes. There's no question about it. I think a lot of people will be surprised a year ago to see this what's happening right now.

All right. Coming up next, timing is everything. My new reporting on how a Senate Republican timed his retirement so no other candidate could get in the race, and how President Trump knew all about that switcheroo. At least one candidate calls it all "sleazy".

[08:47:07]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. STEVE DAINES (R-MT): After much careful thought, I've decided not to seek reelection.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: That was Montana Senator Steve Daines, stunning the political world days ago, in a last-minute move to drop his bid for a third term. It was so last minute that no other candidate could even file for the race before the deadline closed, except for one. The GOP candidate whom Daines wanted to run for his seat and whom President Trump backed, boxing out Democrats and any potential GOP primary foe, while enraging the Independent candidate still in the race.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SETH BODNAR (I), MONTANA SENATE CANDIDATE: They must think were stupid. But we see this for what it is. A sleazy insider plot led by party bosses in Washington, D.C.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Sources tell me it played out over the last several weeks as Daines was contemplating retirement and cut that video back home on a cell phone. One of his allies, the U.S. attorney for Montana, Kurt Alme, had been considering a run.

Ultimately Alme decided last Wednesday, the day of the filing deadline, to resign from his post and run for the Senate seat. So just eight minutes before the deadline hit, Alme filed for the seat just as Daines withdrew his candidacy minutes before.

And as time expired, Democrats and any potential GOP primary foes were caught flat-footed.

The move, I'm told by two sources, was meant to deny Democratic leaders a chance to field candidates who have won statewide and could have put the state in play in November, namely former Senator Jon Tester and former Governor Brian Schweitzer and Steve Bullock.

Any of those potential candidates would have turned Montana into a huge focus of money and resources this November.

And sources tell me that Alme, Daines, Senate GOP leaders, and even Trump were in on the plot and less than an hour after the filing deadline closed, Trump endorsed Alme, quote "based on Steve's recommendation".

Now, the backroom maneuvering left many at a loss for words.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: What did you make of the way Steve Daines withdrew from the race yesterday, eight minutes before the filing deadline, and they anointed his successor?

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): Well, you know, clever guy.

RAJU: Is that denying a primary --

GRAHAM: I hate to see -- well, I'm more focused on Steve leaving. That was a body blow. I love Steve.

RAJU: But the process didn't concern you in any way.

GRAHAM: You need to go talk to him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Now, asked by a CNN producer about his 11th hour move, Daines cited family.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Can I ask you about your last-minute decision to drop out of the primary for reelection.

DAINES: Grandkids.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Now the orchestrated handoff is something that has already happened this cycle in the House. In November, Congressman Chuy Garcia, a Chicago Democrat, abruptly announced he would retire after the filing deadline and just a day after his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, had filed to run for his seat.

[08:54:48]

RAJU: One of Garcia's Democratic colleagues called him out on the House floor for denying his voters a choice.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ (D-WA): Representative Garcia's actions are beneath the dignity of his office and incompatible with the spirit of the constitution.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Now Garcia cited both family and health considerations for his late withdrawal. Still, 213 Republicans and 23 Democrats in the House voted to rebuke Garcia for stage managing his replacement.

That's it for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. You can follow me on X @mkraju. Follow the show @INSIDEPOLITICS. You can also find me on TikTok and Instagram.

Remember, here in the United States, you can now stream INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY live or catch up later on the CNN app and just visit CNN.com/watch for more.

Up next, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER AND DANA BASH". Jake's guests include North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis, Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy and Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.

[08:55:55]

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