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U.A.E. Says It Intercepted Three Missiles From Iran Over Its Waters; Confusion Over Who Controls Strait As U.S., Iran Trade Threats; CNN Poll Of Polls: Trump Approval Falls To 35 Percent; Supreme Court Temporarily Restores Mail Access To Abortion Pill; Trump Admin. Races To Access State Voter Rolls Ahead Of Midterms. Aired 12- 12:30p ET

Aired May 04, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

SEGUN ODUOLOWU, TELEVISION HOST & ENTERTAINMENT JOURNALIST: But the snub list or the people that say they're not going, you won't see the Billie Eilish's of the world who don't find themselves to be comfortable in this room. So, it's a mixed bag. But if you want to be there, it's still the hottest ticket in New York. So, it's a kind of -- you'll see a lot, but the ones that don't want to go, they have their reasons.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN CO-ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: Yeah, good point.

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR, THE SITUATION ROOM: All right. Segun, thank you so much.

BLITZER: And to our viewers, thanks very much for joining us this morning.

BROWN: Inside Politics with our friend and colleague, Dana Bash, starts now.

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Breaking news. The U.A.E. says Iran fired shots into its territory. Is President Trump's ceasefire in jeopardy.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

And that is where we start with that breaking news. The United Arab Emirates says it intercepted three missiles fired by Iran towards its territory. It's the first time this has happened in nearly a month since the start of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. And it comes in the middle of a day of confusion in the Strait of Hormuz, with both the U.S. and Iran claiming, they're in control of it.

U.S. Central Command says two U.S. flagged merchant vessels successfully crossed the Strait after President Trump promised to help ships trying to leave the region. Iran calls that claim baseless. The regime also claims to have struck a U.S. ship, which the U.S. denies.

I want to get straight to Eleni Giokos, who is live for us in Dubai, where that second round of sirens just went off. Tell us what you are actually witnessing as somebody who was there and also hearing from sources about what they think really happened.

ELENI GIOKOS, CNN ANCHOR & CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. So, I mean, we've had four alerts of incoming missiles and drones in the last three hours. And I have to say it was really shocking to hear these alerts after not, you know, hearing anything because of the ceasefire agreement since April the 8th. So, I think everyone is really shaken by this new reality, and of course, there was hope there was going to be some kind of diplomatic off ramp that changed very quickly in the last three hours.

And from the reports that we're hearing from officials, is that the Fujairah industrial oil terminal -- this is a very important industrial zone that is up in flames. They intercepted a drone that was targeting that facility there. And that's just one of many stories that we're starting to learn about in terms of this latest round of missiles that are targeted towards the U.A.E. And I just want to remind you that the U.A.E. has borne the brunt of the retaliatory strikes by Iran since the beginning of the war.

BASH: Yeah. No, absolutely. And as you said, it's jarring, probably in any situation, but particularly because you haven't been experiencing those sirens in about a month since the ceasefire began. Is it your sense that what we're seeing right now the attacks at -- towards the U.A.E. has to do with what the president is trying to do in the Strait of Hormuz?

GIOKOS: Well, I've spoken to a few sources and experts, and they firstly believe that this basically shows just how fragile the ceasefire has always been. I guess we were, you know, hoping for a very different sort of off ramp here, but it has always been fragile. And one of the experts I spoke who say, that this is a complete violation of the ceasefire.

So, what happens next is going to be important, but what's transpired in the Strait of Hormuz today is very significant. When President Trump announced this sort of humanitarian mission, is what they're calling it about guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran was very quick to say that they view this as a violation of the ceasefire.

We also saw a tanker that is linked to the Abu Dhabi national oil company that was struck by two drones today, that was called a terrorist attack by U.A.E. officials. But then, importantly, what we've also seen coming through is the sort of counter and, you know, these claims and counter claims between U.S. CENTCOM, as well as Iran.

The Iranians, for their part, want to keep controlling the Strait of Hormuz. They put out a new map showing, you know, where they're going to be controlling. And it's interesting because they've also explicitly said, until the U.S. naval blockade is lifted, that they do not want engage in conversation. They want to talk about what happens with the Strait of Hormuz before they talk even about anything to do with the nuclear issue.

And we're seeing a confrontation in the seas right now. It's a maritime confrontation, but now it's, you know, we were hoping that was going to be just, you know, sort of contained to what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, but hearing these alerts and knowing that it's now becoming, you know, back to territory, and you know, whether the U.S. is going to be embarking on strikes again or Israel. One source tells me that that's what they expect to happen next -- in the next 24 hours.

[12:05:00]

BASH: Oh boy. All right. Well, Eleni, thank you so much for bringing us up to date. Obviously, stay safe. Our panel is here now. And Kristen Holmes, you cover the White House for us. You know, it's sort of bears repeating because it's been a while that the Strait of Hormuz was totally open, yep, to maritime traffic until the war began, and that is the primary way that Iran is retaliating economically. But now it seems as though, at least in the last hour or so, they're also doing so militarily against an American ally.

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. And this is a clear escalation. I cannot tell you guys. On Wednesday, I believe, of last week, I talked to a senior White House official who told me that they were feeling very optimistic, that things seem to be going in the right direction. They thought that they were getting Iran where they wanted them. That this next kind of proposal that was going to come back from Iran was going to really start to marry where they needed to go, again, not a done deal, but they were feeling good.

That is not the sense anymore. I mean, this has just been a few days, and things have completely spiraled. You obviously have what we're seeing as this breach of the ceasefire. You also have President Trump kind of spiraling on the internet in various speeches, really clearly not knowing what direction that he's going in at this point. At one point saying he's going to blow them all up, then saying it's all about the Strait of Hormuz. We are in a very different position now than we were just a few days ago, and it certainly feels as the direction is crumbling.

BASH: And just this morning, the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the U.S. does -- oh, that Iranians do not have control of the Strait.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCOTT BESSENT, TREASURY SECRETARY: The Iranians do not have control of the Strait. We have absolute control of the Strait. This is an international humanitarian operation. We are opening the Strait. The Iranians do not have control of the Strait.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Michael Scherer?

MICHAEL SCHERER, STAFF WRITER, THE ATLANTIC: Well, there's two blockades going on in the Strait right now. There's a blockade by the U.S. and a blockade by Iran. So that's partially right, but it's also true that the U.S., you know, does not have freedom of navigation. You have not seen U.S. military vessels go into the most vulnerable part of the Strait because it's not safe to be there right now.

I think what you saw this morning was the president trying a gambit, trying to open it up again, but we're still basically in the same place we've been for several weeks now, which is that both sides are testing each other's metal. You know, when the president shut down Iranian traffic in the Strait, he was betting on his own intelligence assessments that the economic pain being felt by Iran was so intense they would cave soon.

There's no indication of that yet. And for the Iranians, they're looking at a president whose, you know, polling continues to go down, who the American people are rebelling against the war they never supported to begin with, and they feel like they have the upper hand. And then on top of that, you have the president about to go to China, where, you know he will be on weaker footing if he goes there, you know, without having any of this sort.

BASH: And Manu, just picking up on that point about where the president's approval or disapproval rating is here in the U.S. Just look at this new poll from the Washington Post, ABC News. The question about the president's handling of the war in Iran. 66 percent of all respondents disapprove. And if you look at the middle column there, these are his fellow Republicans or even independents who lean Republican, 66 percent approve. That might look like a lot, but for this president with this party, it's not that high. And then, of course, the Democrats, no surprise, are very much --

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, look, this contributing to his total deterioration overall handling of his job performance, including among independent voters in that same poll, really, really down in the dumps on critical voting bloc that will determine the midterm elections. The president is in such a complicated position on how to respond in the aftermath of this attempted attack against U.A.E.

If he reengages in a military bombing campaign in Iran, pressure is going to grow within his own party to come and get approval for this war. Right now, a lot of Republicans are giving him time, even though they we've exceeded the 60 days under the War Powers Act, which requires him to come to Congress to get that authorization. It does -- call allow for an additional 30 days, assuming there's a withdrawal of troops.

But if there's an escalation, expect the calls for a vote in Congress to intensify and Trump no longer to win those votes that are happening in the Senate, where they've been defeating democratic efforts to check his powers in Iran, more Republicans will defect, which is part of that challenge the president is facing.

BASH: All right. We're going to sneak in a quick break. Before we do, I just want to show you something that the president put on his social media platform over the weekend. It's a picture of him, holding wildcard -- Uno cards. I have all the cards. We're not sure if that's entirely true, but we do know. Just think about this conversation we just had. What he does in response, if anything, to what Iran did this morning using military action during a ceasefire against the U.A.E., will kind of speak to whether or not that is true.

[12:10:00]

When we come back. We are now six months, six months away from the midterms. And President Trump is getting some of the worst poll numbers ever. And a key test of President Trump's power over the Republican Party in Indiana. I'm going to talk to a state senator who bucked the president about tomorrow's primaries.

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[12:15:00]

BASH: We are now just under six months from election day. The midterms are November 3. Here are three key metrics that help take stock of this political moment and what's at stake. 35, that's Trump's approval rating in a new CNN Poll of Polls, the lowest of his second term. $4.46 the average cost today for a gallon of gas in America. And two, that is the number of votes giving Republicans control of the House of Representatives right now, it's the narrowest majority in nearly a century.

Here's how former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who led Republicans to a historic wave in 1994, assessed his party's chances six months out. Quote, if the election were in May, Republicans would lose. The war, the sense of affordability and gasoline, some of that has to be cleared up in order to win. If it doesn't change, I'll start tearing my hair out.

My panel is back. Luckily, he still has a very good hair --

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: What is your sense from talking to your sources on Capitol Hill, particularly in the House, where they're all on the ballot of what they're really feeling right now?

RAJU: Look, there's real concern, because so much of this is environment. Midterm elections are often a referendum on the president. The president's numbers are terrible right now. We're seeing so much economic anxiety. The economy, of course, is always issue number one. And what is the Republican message about affordability? They don't -- really don't have one. They really struggled to say so, they passed their big, beautiful bill act last year. There's not been really an effective sales job among the American public, and the polls bear that out. So, there is a big fear about Trump sinking their chances.

Now, the one thing that they are hopeful of is all this fight over redistricting and gerrymandering, that actually limits the playing field and limits the number of swing districts that are really in place. So perhaps, as Newt Gingrich is saying, the environment can change, the war ends, something else happens, and there's so few swing districts, and they managed to econ and hold on to power. That seems to be their best hope at the moment. BASH: Well, while you're on this topic, and then I'll come back to more of the Washington Post poll. This is, according to The Cook Political Report. In 2018, which is when the Democrats took back the House, there were 75 toss up or lean seats. Right now, there are only 32 because of the gerrymandering that has happened, never mind mid- decade, but just since the census. And that 32 could become even smaller because of the changes we expect even before the midterms.

RAJU: Yeah. That's really the issue here. That's why these majorities are so narrow in the House. So, even Democrats win back control, they're looking at a very narrow majority as well. And we're talking about in the aftermath of the Voting Rights Act. There's probably a big issue -- bigger issue in 2028 for sure, but at least five seats could potentially go to the Republicans way if they make these changes and these hold up in court in the aftermath of the Supreme Court ruling, so that limits the playing field even more.

BASH: Kristen, let's look a little bit deeper at where the president is on economic issues. This, again, is from this new Washington Post poll. First of all, just generally on the economy, 34 percent approval, taxes, which Republicans generally do very well on. And he's been touting the tax cuts from the first year, only 38 percent. Inflation, 27 percent, so only a quarter of the American people, or those who responded, support him on inflation, and cost of living is even lower.

HOLMES: Yeah. I mean, cost of living is probably the most important because it's what people feel every single day. They know it's a problem. They know specifically that it's a problem, when it comes to the war in Iran and the rising gas prices. I do think that there is a feeling, and this is why I am constantly questioning where we go next in Iran.

If they can get out of Iran, they have enough runway to get some of it back, to build back, to get the gas prices at least a little bit lower, to focus on the message of affordability, to focus on targeting specific races, getting out there, doing what his political operation does, which is kind of trying to find low propensity voters that they could bring out even for midterms, even without Trump on the ballot. But all of that is really contingent on what we see happen next with the war in Iran. And where we're seeing it right now, it just doesn't seem like it's coming to an off ramp, and that is going to hinder all of this and all of their planning as well.

[12:20:00]

BASH: And yet, despite all of these really bad numbers for the president, and by extension, Republicans who are going to be on the ballot, Democrats are not. If you look at them sort of generically, which means, you know, how do people feel about the brand and the party. Not so great comparatively. I mean, they're 49 percent. They are doing better than Republicans, but it's not exponentially better, Michael?

SCHERER: Yeah, that's right. And you know, another thing the Republicans have going for them this year is that they seem to have more money, maybe half a billion dollars more money. And then, these individual races and Senate seats and House seats, that means they can outspend on negative advertising, and they can make it about not the net -- less about the national environment, more about whether this specific Democrat is terrible or not. And there is a receptivity to negative messaging about Democrats right now.

Luckily for them, this is a midterm year, and as Manu said, they're traditionally referendums, they're not really choices. Presidential elections are choices. These are referendums. And that 23 percent number is just a killer, I mean, on cost of living. If you remember James Blair, after the Virginia and New Jersey elections last year, said, we're going to focus on costs. And they had a plan this spring.

They were going to talk about how interest rates were coming down. Houses are more affordable. They were going to talk about how you're getting a bigger tax refund. All of that's gone. Interest rates are up because of the war. Costs are up because of the war. And even if the war stopped today, if you listen to people who know the oil markets, prices don't just immediately snap back. I mean, we could have months of tail wind.

And so, the debate is, when, you know, when is the deadline here? Does it have to start snapping back by the beginning of summer, by end of summer, Labor Day? Is that enough? And we're going to find out.

BASH: So, it's the issues that are a drag on Republicans. And then there are wildcard issues that could help to goose Democratic turnout or turnout for Democratic candidates more than already is happening. And I wonder what you're hearing Kristen about the abortion news and the fact that this was obviously a big motivating factor for voters when the Supreme Court struck down roe in 2022 the last midterms.

Less so in 2024 for the presidential because things have had kind of -- I want -- I don't want to say settled on the state map, but it was kind of a little bit less of a shock. Now, the question is, on abortion, whether or not, the Supreme Court will allow mifepristone and other abortion pills to be sold via Telehealth across state lines, and that could actually really gen up the female vote, if the answer is no.

HOLMES: It could. I mean, when I'm talking to these sources inside of the White House, it's just not something that they are talking about as a real driver to the polls. And now that doesn't mean -- not yet, exactly. And so, I think we have to wait and see how that plays out, because right now, the focus really is on the affordability and the economy as that's being what's going to drive people out to vote. That's what they're concerned about. I think that we have the potential for that having an impact, but we're just not quite there yet, and that's not where their focus is yet.

RAJU: I mean, remember, in the aftermath of the Dobbs decision, Democrats over performed in both the House and Senate. They did lose the House, but it was by a much narrower majority. Republicans were hoping for a big sweep, and they had a small majority, and Democrats picked up one seat in the Senate. BASH: Yeah, yeah. And obviously, the drug is used for medical abortions, but it's also used for people who have miscarriages. Just real quick. Our colleague Tierney Sneed has an important news story about the president and Republicans pushing for aggressive voter roll purges up until election day.

For decades, it's generally been assumed that any mass purges of voter rolls had to be completed at least 90 days out from an election. But Republicans and the Trump administration are now testing the scope of the federal law that imposes that ban on systemic removal programs within three months of an election as President Trump pushes for more aggressive reviews of voter rolls for non-citizens and other ineligible voters.

SCHERER: Yeah. So, this is one of many strands of very aggressive moves by the administration to basically rejigger the rules of elections to their advantage. You know, going in -- remember, there was an executive order recently about vote by mail. He's been trying to push federal voter ID law. I think we have to step back and say a lot of what he has tried to do in the second term when it comes to elections has not been successful in the courts.

Now, it may be that this narrow attempt, which is basically to empower conservative states to do late voter roll cleanses that could disenfranchise voters, that could -- that could have an effect. I mean, we don't know where the courts are going to come down, but there's like six or seven other trains that are leaving the station here that will end up in courts. And like you said, the tradition is the courts like to stay away from elections right before elections. That's the tradition. There's doctrine there. We don't know whether that will be overturned this year.

[12:25:00]

BASH: Yeah. This, as you said, one of so many threads that we are going to continue to follow and pull on. Don't go anywhere. Up next. He stood up to President Trump's social media threats on redistricting. And tomorrow, it could cost his GOP peers their jobs. We're talking to the Republican leader of the Indiana State Senate. That's next.

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[12:30:00]