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New Analysis: Texas Senate, Iowa Senate Now Toss Up Races; New Analysis: Texas, Iowa Governor Races Shift Toward Democrats; Flashback: Last Time Texas Elected A Democratic Senator Was 1988; FBI Searches Eric Swalwell's Home, Seizes Devices In Federal Probe Tied To Sexual Assault Claims; GOP Senate Group Warns Data Center Opposition Is Potent Message. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired August 20, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

DANA BASH, CNN HOST: Could Texas finally be choosing Democrats? We have a new update to the midterm Senate map.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are just 75 days to go until the midterm elections, and as we turn from a bruising primary season toward the general election, the battle for control of the Senate could be changing. Nine states will likely determine if Republicans can hold on to their Senate majority or if Democrats can win back the upper chamber, as they look to capitalize on President Trump's deep unpopularity.

Now we have brand new analysis from the Cook Political Report on the state of play, and here's a hint, Democrats may have a new path to the Senate majority. Cook Political Reports, Jessica Taylor joins me now. Jessica, thank you for being here. Tell us about your new ratings.

JESSICA TAYLOR, SENATE AND GOVERNORS EDITOR, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: We are shifting Texas from lean Republican into the toss-up column. We're also shifting Iowa from lean Republican into the toss-up column. We're also making two shifts in the governor's races in both of those states. The Texas governor's race moves from solid Republican to likely Republican and becoming more competitive. And then the Iowa governor's race moves from toss up to lean Democrat, giving Democrats a slight advantage there.

But what this means is that there are multiple paths now for Democrats to a Senate majority, even if they lose, if they don't win Maine or if they lose Michigan. Now it's still a very narrow path, but we see the Senate now as a toss-up, but one that still might slightly favor Republicans, but it is an increasingly competitive opportunity for Democrats.

BASH: OK. So, you talk about different paths. Let's sort of drill down on that and look at the map. So, let's just say Texas. According to this, there is a possibility. Let's say it goes Democrat. Texas goes D. Iowa, let's say that -- now that it's a toss-up from your reporting and analysis, Iowa goes D. What does that mean in terms of what else Democrats would have to do, and in the flip side of that, what else Republicans would have to do?

TAYLOR: Well, North Carolina still remains the best opportunity for Democrats. We rate that one as lean Democrat.

BASH: OK. So, let's say -- let's do this a D, test case.

TAYLOR: Then Democrats are down. Then Democrats would just need one more seat. Now they still have to defend Michigan, and that's an increasingly daunting task. We have some new --

BASH: Go ahead.

TAYLOR: -- we have some new polling out of there from the AARP from a bipartisan polling firm that shows that is very much a toss-up, but there are some vulnerabilities that Abdul El-Sayed has, particularly with older voters.

BASH: So, let's say worst-case scenario for Democrats, best case for Republicans in Michigan, Michigan goes R. Then what happens?

TAYLOR: Right. Then Democrats would still need -- they would need five total -- they would need to flip five seats, so that means a Maine, an Ohio, an Alaska. So, it just means that Democrats have increasingly expanded the competitive battlefield and are putting Republicans on the defensive in more states and double-digit Trump states that really should not be competitive.

But are -- you know, I think that what we're looking at right now is the economy and the war in Iran. Even if this resolves, even if the Strait of Hormuz opens back up, where the economy is, is baked into voter psyches right now. They know what the price of gas is in a play -- in a state like Iowa. It's hitting the agriculture industry very hard with fertilizer prices, with diesel prices, and Republicans have good candidates in a lot of these states.

In Iowa, Ashley Hinson is running an incredibly strong race, but so is Josh Turek, the Democrat there, and he's someone that they're increasingly finding hard to stick things to. He's a Paralympian. He has an ad out this week talking about 700 bipartisan votes that he's taken and saying that he would work with President Trump.

BASH: So, let's -- I'm going to bring in our panel, who's also here with us. And let's start -- because you ended on Iowa, and it's one of these switches that you talked about Iowa and Texas. But let's start with Iowa because you brought up that Turek ad. Let's watch it.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

BASH: So, Nia, just to give background and a reminder of the way that Iowa was and has been recently. The last time Iowa elected a Democrat to the Senate is the legendary Tom Harkin. Last time Iowa elected a Democratic governor was 2000 -- so it was 2008 for Harkin, 2006 for Chet Culver. Let's put a pin in Texas for a second and just stay focused on Iowa.

[12:05:00] NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, POLITICS & POLICY COLUMNIST, BLOOMBERG: Yeah, listen. I mean, you see in that ad what he is trying to do, right? Republicans are going to try to nationalize the race. They're going to try to make it seem like Democrats have been taken over by the socialists, or in their framing, the communist wing of the party. And so there he is, saying he is a sort of born and bred Iowan. He has Iowa values. He believes in gun raids, and that he's bipartisan.

So, yeah. I mean, I think Democrats have fielded some good, Taylor Rehmet candidates for these state races, and they're just hoping that Donald Trump keeps being distracted and focusing on the ballroom and getting stuck in the mire of Iran and gas prices will as a result be quite high. And in the meantime, there is this wave right, that is really powered by a need for change right, that is what they're hoping, but it's got to be a perfect storm for this all to work.

BASH: And on the Republican side in Iowa Ashley Hinson, and you mentioned this, Jessica. She's widely considered, even by Democrats, a very good candidate across the board. And as we've seen in these primaries, candidates matter.

MICHAEL WARREN, POLITICS EDITOR, THE DISPATCH: Absolutely. Well, let's look --

BASH: And before I bring you in on this, because I want to get your take on it. I want to watch a Hinson ad, the latest Hinson ad.

(PAYING VIDEO)

BASH: It's an interesting take but talk about that and then more broadly --

WARREN: Well, it was -- and it was -- it was a knock against Turek during the primary as well and it didn't work. Look, I think that Hinson is certainly the best that Iowa Republicans could hope for. They felt very good, and they were hoping that Zach Wahls, who was the more progressive candidate in a Democratic primary, would sort of do what a lot of other Democratic primary voters have done, you know, elevate the more progressive, the more socialist or democratic socialist candidate.

They did not get that in Josh Turek. Turek is from the western side, Council Bluffs, the western side of Iowa, the more conservative side. He talks about, I represented a Trump district in the state legislature. He is pushing this idea that look, I work with Republicans on all sorts of issues. I talked to him back in, I think April when I was in Iowa. He really likes to tout the fact that I work across the aisle. Oh, and by the way, you know, gas prices are hurting lots of farmers.

The cost of inputs for ag, right? This is an issue that was exactly with the tariffs. This is an issue that is sort of coming home to roost for Republicans right now in Iowa, as you know, all those inputs, fertilizer, and everything else over the last several months. I think that's why you're seeing this big shift. All of those issues that supposedly Trump had sort of, you know, weathered the storm on tariffs. I think that that is coming home to roost in these sort of plain agriculture states.

BASH: Shelby?

SHELBY TALCOTT, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, SEMAFOR: Yeah. I agree with you, and I also think it's really interesting. You can tell that the Trump administration is acutely aware of what is going on with these maps and the vulnerabilities they have. In part because I think it's really notable that over the past few days and weeks, the president has really started to back off some of his military rhetoric when it comes to the Iran war.

I'm hearing from Republicans who are in the White House who are trying to talk more about the economy and trying to get the president more focused on that, and I think that's an intentional effort. Whether or not --

BASH: It didn't go so well yesterday with his tour of the new helipad.

TALCOTT: Whether or not, it works is another question, right? We're still seeing the president focused on foreign policy. We're seeing him focused on things like the ballroom and the helipad. But at the same time, I'm hearing from administration officials who know that what they have to focus on is not just saying to voters, OK, the Democratic Party is too progressive and that's why you should vote for us, but providing them a solution, a reason to actually vote for Republicans.

BASH: Jessica, let's go back to the ratings change. We talked now a lot about Iowa, Texas. I mean, Texas has been the white whale for Democrats, and let's put back on the screen the question of the last time Texas elected Democrats. 1988, Lloyd Bentsen, that was for Senate, and for governor, of course, the legendary Ann Richards, that was in the year 1990.

Given that, and given the fact, Jessica, that we have certainly seen Democrats try really hard. The last and best chance they had was bedrock rock (Ph) when he was running against Ted Cruz. What makes you all think at Cook Report that now is or could be a different time or the time for Democrats?

[12:10:00]

TAYLOR: It's really because of Ken Paxton. The Republican nominee is so weak. He is not raising money. This is not who Republicans wanted. This would not be a race. We would not have changed our rating if this were still John Cornyn as the incumbent, as the Republican nominee. Paxton has so many scandals. He is so polarizing to Republicans that Democrat James Talarico's campaign is really targeting Republicans. They're targeting independent voters.

There's a real frustration that Paxon isn't out there enough, that he's not doing enough, that the president is going to go fundraise for him. And Talarico right now is the only one that's been significantly on the air. So, we acknowledge that this race might shift back once money starts coming in. But right now, Republicans are arguing about who's going to pick up the tap in such an expensive state. BASH: Yeah, no, that's true. I was talking to a Texas Republican, Michael, who was arguing to me that even with all of the scandals that are plaguing Ken Paxton, that he has a better. You tell me what you think. This is again just an argument from a prominent Texas Republican has a better rating, the unofficial kind with Texans than Ted Cruz did back then. I'm not sure I believe that, but that's sort of what Texas Republicans are leaning into right now.

WARREN: Yeah, I don't know. I mean, the whole idea of Ken Paxton and Ted Cruz sort of both of them representing Texans in the Senate. I mean, they sort of stick out because they're very political, and Texas is actually -- it's a giant state. It's actually not that political, but they definitely represent the Republican Party, the Republican brand in Texas.

Look, but going back to the money thing, I mean, this this to me was always going to be the path for Democrats. They had to expand the map because what expanding the map does is it forces Republicans to spend money in places that they shouldn't. Just like Jessica was saying, if they have to spend money to win a Senate race in Texas, that's money they're not spending in Ohio.

And all of a sudden, Sherrod Brown, who's doing pretty well right now in Ohio against Jon Husted, is able to avoid getting hit with, you're too liberal, you're too socialist, and some of those ads. Money is fungible, and it's a problem if it has to be spent elsewhere.

BASH: And it depends who the day is spending money. We are all now still waiting on the, what 500 trillion from MAGA Inc. to see if they finally pour some money into Texas.

TALCOTT: Yeah, I mean we'll see. It's going to be really interesting. But to your point, this is not the scenario that the White House wants. This is not the scenario that anybody in the Republican Party wants because there are tight races everywhere in the country.

BASH: All right, everybody, stand by because we have breaking news. CNN has learned the FBI seized the electronic devices of disgraced former Congressman Eric Swalwell. We have the details, next. Plus, from road rules to road trips. The transportation secretary's new reality show is finally out. May have hit a few political potholes.

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[12:15:00]

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BASH: Now to breaking news about now former House Democrat Eric Swalwell. Sources tell CNN the FBI seized Swalwell's electronic devices at the San Francisco airport on Saturday, then raided his D.C. home on Sunday. It's part of an ongoing federal investigation into sexual assault allegations against the one-time rising Democratic star. Swalwell has denied those allegations.

My colleagues Pamela Brown and Allison Gordon broke the story. First of all, wow. Pamela, let me start with you. What do we know about the federal raids?

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the fact that the FBI is getting involved now is certainly a big deal, as our own Andrew McCabe put it. They had to go to a judge and get a search warrant and show probable cause. And we're told, Allie and I are told by our sources that this is all connected to the sexual assault allegations that we've been reporting on since the spring.

And so, we're told by our sources that former Representative Swalwell took a flight from D.C. to San Francisco on Saturday. And when he arrived at the San Francisco airport, he was met by FBI agents who seized his devices. The next day, we're told that the FBI raided his home. We're not exactly sure of everything he -- that the FBI took, but it is significant, because normally, Dana, just for context, the FBI does not investigate sexual assault cases. Typically, that's left to the state.

And we know that there are different investigations in L.A. as well as Manhattan that relate to the reporting, the women we've been speaking to who accuse him of sexual assault, which he has denied. Two women in particular have said that he raped them. He has denied both of those cases. And so, now you have the FBI involved in this. And I spoke to Elie Honig, our legal analyst, and he said there could be a few different things the FBI is looking at. One is color of law.

When these allegations happened, Swalwell was a member of Congress. And color of law would be an abuse of power, an abuse of official position to take away someone's constitutional rights or civil rights, including sexual violence or bodily autonomy. And so, Elie said that could be one avenue they're looking at. We don't have the specifics right now, but that could be part of this, Dana.

[12:20:00]

BASH: Unbelievable. And Allison, I know not only did you break the story by talking to the accusers on the front end of this, you've been speaking to two of them since the story broke.

ALLISON GORDON, CNN INVESTIGATES REPORTER & PRODUCER: That's right, Dana. Yeah, Pamela and I have both been in touch with women involved in this ongoing probe from the FBI, and they confirmed to me these sources that I connected with earlier today when the news first broke that the FBI has, you know, been in touch with them specifically about this sexual misconduct angle of this ongoing probe into the former congressman.

BASH: And Pamela, as I mentioned, you interviewed two of the accusers earlier this year.

BROWN: I did. I interviewed and one of accusers spoke with me in shadow. This was a woman who had worked for Eric Swalwell. I want to take a listen to what she told us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: After that bar closed, we went to another. I went to the bathroom, and I don't remember anything after that.

BROWN: You don't remember anything.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I remember the next day. I can see flashes of that evening, of him on top of me, me pushing him off, him grabbing me. It was a lot more aggressive. It was aggressive.

BROWN: Did you say no?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, I said no. I said, I -- in my flash that I can recall, I was pushing him off of me, saying no.

BROWN: And what did he do?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He didn't stop.

BROWN: He didn't stop.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So, after this reporting, you went out along with the San Francisco Chronicle. We know the Manhattan D.A.'s office launched this investigation. We don't know what the latest is there. We should also note that the daily mail was first to report the FBI investigation today. I know you've been trying to reach out to Eric Swalwell to his attorneys. Have you heard back?

GORDON: That's right. Both Pamela and I have tried to get in contact with the former congressman and his attorney that we had worked with or reached out to, excuse me, previously, and we have not heard back yet. But I should note that as these stories have continued to break, the former congressman has been adamant that he did not sexually assault anyone and that any extramarital contact was consensual. Now, his attorney told us that, you know, he acknowledged consensual extramarital contact, but that he did not assault anyone, and that he has been steadfast in that assertion.

BASH: Go ahead.

BROWN: I'm just going to say, I think it is worth noting too that since this reporting came out in the spring, there's been really a reckoning on Capitol Hill, Dana, as you well know, with more ethics investigations open, looking into potential sexual misconduct. We just reported yesterday about an ethics investigation into Representative Jimmy Gomez for allegations of sexual misconduct, something that he denies. That is ongoing. There are other ethics investigations. Max Miller, for one. I mean, I do think this is really, really a moment, and so this comes at a time when there's more focus on this issue.

BASH: Yeah, no question about it. Thank you both for your excellent reporting, as always, and thanks for being here and sharing it.

GORDON: Thank you.

BASH: And when we come back, our AI data centers, the new third rail of American politics. One of the most endangered House Republicans on the ballot this fall seems to think so. That's next.

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[12:25:00]

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BASH: President Trump just can't stop praising AI data centers.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: If I were the mayor of a town or the governor of a state, and I had a chance to get a big plant in an AI plant or a data center, I would absolutely want it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: That's not how it's playing out in a lot of places. In fact, if you want to know how data centers are landing with voters, watch this Republican ad from Congressman Tom Barrett. He's defending a toss-up House seat in Michigan.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

BASH: I mean, he kind of tells you everything you need to know. And here's another data point, Shelby. The NRSC, which is the Republican arm that is tasked with electing Republicans to the Senate, put out a memo, which was obtained by Axios. Our polling indicates that this anti-data center messaging is significantly more effective than traditional messaging tracks. If voters' perception of data centers are not fixed quickly, the campaign against them will expand far beyond Ohio. This obviously was about Ohio. Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, there is hitting it hard.

TALCOTT: Yeah. This is a real risk for Republicans that I think has gone under the radar for a really long time. Voters feel extremely strongly about the idea of data centers being built in their backyards. There's all of these debates about how loud they are, and the costs, and all of these issues, and so you're seeing in real time. My colleague Dave had a really good report on it. How Republicans are trying to kind of massage their stances, and as they try to figure out where the base is, right? Vivek has done this. Greg Abbott has done this. Byron Donalds has done this.

They all -- you're seeing them sort of add this into their messaging, but in a really interesting way because I think they're still trying to figure out where is the base landing on this and how can we meet the base there and not lose voters as a result of this topic.

BASH: Right. I mean, it's a -- it's a business question which traditional Republicans and in this case, Trump is a traditional Republican, pro-business is saying. Of course, we want to do this, but it's the energy costs for people in their homes, it's an environmental questions.