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New CNN Poll: Jackson Voters Say They're Voting Against Collins; New CNN Poll: Half Of Michigan Voters Say El-Sayed Too Liberal; Price Of Gas Surges To $4.22 On First Day Of GOP Convention; Trump On GOP Convention: "Everybody Wants To Be There"; GOP Candidate Compared Women's Weight To "Whales", "Elephants". Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired September 09, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR, INSIDE POLITICS: We're dropping brand new CNN polling from two states that could make or break a Senate majority. I'm Kasie Hunt in for Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are 55 days until the election, and we are tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and across the country. And we start with breaking news: two new CNN battleground state polls in Michigan and Maine. The headline: the Senate races in each state are statistically tied. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are within the margin of error. And in Maine, it's the same thing. Democrat Troy Jackson also within the margin of error.

CNN's political director David Chalian is at the Magic Wall with all the numbers. We also have Manu Raju covering the race on the ground in Maine, and Arlette Saenz on the ground in Michigan. We'll get to them in just a moment. But David, let's start with you. I think you're going to start us off in Maine. What are we learning?

DAVID CHALIAN, POLITICAL DIRECTOR & WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Two battleground states, Kasie, and they are toss-up races, no doubt. As you showed here in Maine, I'm going to take my earpiece out -- as you showed here in Maine, you see Troy Jackson at 48 percent among likely voters, Susan Collins at 45 percent, well within the margin of error. There is no clear leader in this race.

What about the demographic breakdowns in this race. Well, if you've been paying attention to American politics, as I know people who watch Inside Politics are, this will look familiar. The Democrat Jackson with an advantage among female voters, the Republican Collins an advantage among male voters. Jackson has a big advantage with voters under 45, a small edge for Collins for those 45 or older college graduates, big advantage for the Democratic candidate. And with non- college graduates, this is the education divide we talk about.

You see an advantage for Susan Collins. This is why we always say turnout is so important. How these groups show up will determine a lot of the outcome here. I think this is one of the most fascinating numbers in our entire poll. What's driving Jackson voters in this race? Overwhelmingly, 71 percent of likely Jackson voters are casting their ballot as a vote against Susan Collins. This is an effort to get rid of Republican control of the Senate, and these voters clearly see Susan Collins and defeating her as a pathway to do that. That's the motivation for Jackson voters.

When you look at the issue set in Maine, Kasie, this is -- this is the negative political environment overall for Republicans that we see. Donald Trump's approval rating in the state of Maine is at 31 percent among likely voters. A slim majority of likely voters are angry, not just dissatisfied, angry about how things are going in the U.S., fewer than one in five voters say that their financial situation is better now than it was two years ago.

Only a small fraction of voters, and this is so interesting. 70 percent, seven in 10 of likely voters in Maine say that tariffs on Canada are bad for the state of Maine, and as we know, Donald Trump keeps pursuing that agenda and putting it front and center, which creates a problem for Susan Collins.

HUNT: A problem indeed. All right, CNN's Manu Raju is on the ground in Newport, Maine, for us. So, Manu, what are you seeing feeling out on the ground there as you see these numbers?

MANU RAJU, CNN'S CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. It's interesting because what you're seeing with Democrats and it's born out in the polling here, they're trying to nationalize this race. They're trying to make this about Susan Collins, Donald Trump, and if Susan Collins wins reelection here, that the Republicans will likely keep the Senate majority and that's what's really driving supporters of Troy Jackson in this race.

He's not particularly well known in this state. Still, given the fact the way he came into this race just several weeks ago as the Democratic nominee. But the issue that is driving them, according to this poll, 53 percent of Jackson supporters believe that party control of the Senate is the most important issue.

Then, when you look at the Collins supporters is different. That's the issues of the candidates' positions are the most interesting to them. And issues of candidate character, which explains to you why Susan Collins very much into Republicans going after Troy Jackson. They're up with a bunch of campaign ads, trying to attack him as an insider politician, someone they said the people should not trust.

But then here's another question too that this poll tested. Susan carve the issue of the Dobbs decision that occurred after Susan Collins was last on the ballot. Remember, she voted for Brett Kavanaugh to be the Supreme -- to sit on the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh, of course, voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. And when you ask the voters how they feel about that issue, and it's very clear, a lot of them are very angry. 65 percent are angry.

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When you break down the demo graph, who is ideologically, which voters are most angry about this? Of course, Democrats. No surprise there. But it is a blue state. This is the issue. If you're Susan Collins, you're paying attention because 70 percent of independent voters are concerned about the fact that Roy v. Wade was overturned in 2022.

Can the question now for Democrats, Kasie, is can they translate into a vote against Susan Collins? And can Susan Collins, who's running very much on her seniority, sitting as the chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, what she's brought to different parts of the state. Can she make this race separate herself from the national environment, separate herself from Donald Trump, and focus on her record and what she's been able to deliver?

That's what she's doing, actually, right behind me right now. Campaign stops going to one business after another, trying to talk to voters about what she has done for them. The question is, how will voters decide? What will they decide at the end of the day? Local issues, parochial issues, her record, or the national environment?

HUNT: She's been a real lion in the state, and the test of whether this national environment is bad enough to push her out is going to really say a lot. All right, Manu, thank you. Let's get back to the Magic Wall and David Chalian, who has the CNN poll results out of Michigan. David, walk us through it.

CHALIAN: Yeah, Kasie. You noted the topline numbers here again. This is a razor thin race, and 47 percent of likely voters supporting Abdul El-Sayed in our poll. 44 percent for the Republican Mike Rogers. I realize this number is higher than this number, but this is the number that really matters here, 4.1 percent margin of error. This is within it. There is no clear leader in this race.

You look at the demographic breakdowns here. Again, we see Rogers, the Republican, performing a bit better with male voters. El-Sayed, the Democrat, a bit more -- better with female voters. They're running really close together among white voters, so that may be a good sign for El-Sayed. Among black voters, obviously, the Democrat has a huge advantage among black voters in Michigan, but is it a big enough advantage? Because he's going to need big black turnout if indeed he's going to be successful as a Democrat in Michigan.

And again, you see the age divide here, younger voters' overwhelmingly advantage for El-Sayed, Rogers a slight edge with older voters. Speaking of black voters, among likely black voters in Michigan. Look at this, 60 percent tell us that they've made their mind up, they're locked in. But that leaves 40 percent who either might change their mind or haven't decided.

So, if you're El-Sayed, you say, hey, I got to shore up what should be a natural constituency for me as the Democrat. And if you're Rogers, you see opportunity in here to try and dig away at what may be your opponent's natural base, so that's an interesting finding in the poll.

If indeed, Michigan voters, at the end of the day, vote because they want change, that's going to advantage Abdul El-Sayed. 65 percent of likely Michigan voters say that he will try to change things a lot if he gets to Washington. Only 20 percent of Michigan voters say that about Mike Rogers. So, what may be keeping this race so close? If that is the reality and people are hungry for change, well, it might be ideology, Kasie. 50 percent half of likely voters in Michigan say El-Sayed is too liberal. That is more than the voters who say 42 percent of likely Michigan voters who say that Rogers is too conservative, so that may be something that El-Sayed has to navigate through if he is to be successful in this race, Kasie.

HUNT: Indeed, and there may be some significant layers to what voters are including in that particular metric. All right, CNN's Arlette Saenz is there in Pontiac, Michigan, for us. And Arlette, you've been on the trail with both of these Senate candidates this week and you've talked to voters. What have you learned on the ground?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kasie, a lot of these findings in our newest Michigan poll really reflect some of the conversations that we've been having with voters here on the ground in Michigan. You have Republicans who have argued that Abdul El-Sayed is too extreme, too liberal. That is something that is reflected a bit in these numbers. While you also have the Democrats and El-Sayed supporters who've been very frustrated with some of the policies coming out of Washington and are worried that Mike Rogers is aligned with the president.

Now, one of the other interesting dynamics of this poll is one of the top concerns for voters here in Michigan, and that is the state of the economy and cost of living issues. That is something we heard over and over again from voters, and included, in all of that is some of the impact that has been felt here in Michigan from the tariffs that have been in place with Canada and other countries as well.

And I had the chance to speak with voters on the economy, on tariffs. Here's what a few of them had to tell me this week.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's no upside. There's no end game.

ZACH KEAN: Inflation has increased. Gas prices increased. Everything in this world has increased. What has decreased?

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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The economy is doing better, I think, in the way that, yes, not every day's people are feeling it in their pocketbook right now, but you got to give it some time.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SAENZ: Now, when I spoke with El-Sayed earlier this week, he cited those tariffs on Canada -- Canadian imports being part of the problem that is driving cost up for Michiganders here in the state. A bit earlier today, we were with Mike Rogers outside of an event where he had toured a literacy program at a school and he was asked about the president's tariff policies. He said that he believes that some of it gets it right, some of it needs to be tweaked a bit, kind of showing the tricky and fine line, delicate balance that he is trying to strike in this race.

But this battleground state of Michigan will be key heading into November. Republicans feel that this could offer one of their best pickup opportunities, and if a Republican, if Rogers were to win here, that could potentially disrupt the Democratic math to the Senate majority. But El-Sayed, I asked him if he believed that Democrats could win the Senate majority without Michigan. He told me no, but he expressed confidence that he thinks the state will. Kasie?

HUNT: All right, Arlette Saenz for us on the ground in Michigan. Arlette, thank you very much for that. And coming up next here. It is President Trump's party, and he'll call it sold out if he wants to. We're going to have new reporting on tonight's first ever GOP midterm convention, and the very political RSVPs. Plus, high prices, an unpopular war, and a president deep underwater. With all that GOP baggage, why aren't Democrats flying higher? I'll speak to DNC Chair Ken Martin this hour.

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HUNT: President Trump is rallying Republicans in Dallas tonight at the first ever GOP midterm convention. This is probably not the headline they'd like to kick things off. Global oil prices crossed the $100 mark today. A response to a U.S. strike on Iranian oil tankers and a host of other developments that make clear the war in Iran is far from over. So, what does that mean for gas prices? The average price at the pump today jumped seven cents overnight. It is now $4.22.

All right our panel of great reporters is here. And David Chalian with the economy at the front and center of all of this, affordability, the economy, whatever word you want to use to describe it. The president is putting this on True Social. The National -- Republican National Convention tomorrow night in Dallas is really hot. It's totally sold out. Everybody wants to be there, but we're really asking only those candidates who are in tight races. We don't need people who are up 45 points and have been in office for 30 years, as much as we love them. I'm not quite sure where he's going with that, but what do you make of this?

CHALIAN: He said something similar in the Rose Carter last week about, don't bother me. I'm not coming to you if I think you're safe, right? I want to go and make a difference in the races that need a difference. First of all, what I make of it is that is still a president from his apprentice days who's very much into, you know, it's hot, like he wants the tune in for it, no doubt about that. Yes, ratings exactly.

But here's the thing about the economy. No matter what rhetoric the president offers up around it, people live it day to day. They see the gas price sticker shock that you have just put up, and so unlike other things where the president can really sort of shape public opinion around it, that is much harder for him to do around the economy because people experience it at their kitchen table every day.

HUNT: Well, and we saw with Joe Biden, Jamie Gangel, that in some ways it was problematic to insist -- to voters publicly that everything was going well.

JAMIE GANGEL, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: Correct. And with the gas prices going up, you know, this is -- it's not an October surprise, but it's not helping him. The other thing that I wonder about this event is, you know, these candidates are show me the money. Trump has this big war chest, whether it's $400 million or, as he said the other day, a billion dollars. I'm very curious to see how much he really puts out there in the end, which races it goes to, and does it help?

HUNT: Yeah. So, Shelby, the RNC is saying that the point of this convention is this quote, our goal is to remind voters who aren't necessarily politically engaged all of the time that there is an election in November and it's critical for them to get out and vote. And of course, this speaks to the way voters have behaved when Trump is on the ballot, right? The times that he has been running, there have been people, and you know, there was some of this with former President Obama as well, right? They only would go to vote for Donald Trump, and in other elections, they're not coming out. What does that say to you about the goals and what are they hoping to accomplish?

SHELBY TALCOTT, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, SEMAFOR: I mean, the administration, when I talk to the White House officials and people who've been involved in this midterm planning from the administration's perspective, is pretty simple. They believe that the more that they can get the president out there, the more likely it's going to be that that sort of 20, 30, whatever the percentage of sort of core, hardcore Trump voters who really only historically have turned out for the president will turn out for other people.

And you heard this has been something that the administration has been thinking of for months because it's been a little bit of a journey to get the president out on the campaign trail as much as we're seeing him get out now. I remember an interview with Susie Wiles last year where she was saying, the president might not like this yet, but I'm going to make him get out on the campaign trail. That's their calculus.

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I think the question is, are those Trump voters as happy with the president now as they were before the 2024 election when they voted him into office for things like lowering the cost of groceries and the cost of living? We don't know that yet.

CHALIAN: Right. So, David Chalian, let's look at a list of who's going to be there and who's not, because those who are attending and speaking include Senator Jon Husted of Ohio. He's in a tough race against Sherrod Brown. Michael Whatley from North Carolina, likely or he's got an uphill battle against Roy Cooper. Mike Collins of Georgia. Mike Rogers from Michigan. That's a tight one. Ken Paxton of Texas attending but not speaking. The candidates in Iowa and Roger Marshall is the incumbent Senator from Kansas, not going. John Sununu, New Hampshire; Dan Sullivan, Alaska, and Senator Susan Collins of Maine. New Hampshire being kind of a sleeper one for Republicans that they'd like to have be on the map here in November. What do you think are the differences and similarities among these groups?

CHALIAN: Well, let's start with the books that aren't going, because New Hampshire and Maine are blue tilted states, right? So, you kind of understand that. And with Collins and Sullivan, two incumbent senators who really have tried to carve out a distinct identity from the national Republican political brand, you know, in their states, so they don't want to sort of be attached to that. So, I think I understand that.

The Mike Rogers is really interesting because to me, he gets to the very thing you're talking about as like a test case for -- if the theory from Susie Wiles and others is correct. He doesn't want to not show up because he needs to energize that base. So, he wants to dabble in that, and yet he's at a state that we just saw in our poll. Donald Trump is wildly unpopular in the state of Michigan. And so how closely do you want to be attached?

You know, I don't think Rogers is seen as super Trumpy by voters in Michigan, but deciding that he wanted to attend this to me indicates, he knows part of his challenge as much as he's done since the primary to woo the middle and try to get some disaffected Democrats who may not be happy with El-Sayed to fold, part of his challenge also is he's got to have a totally excited, enlivened Republican MAGA base to show up.

HUNT: Right. And of course, in the environment in Michigan with tariffs and some of those other things you walk through, that's a challenge. Jamie Gangel, let's look at the list of House candidates who are going to be speaking at the convention because this also gives us a sense. And of course, when we talk about this all the time. But the environment, the House is much more -- is going to be much more driven by the national environment whereas the Senate races, who the candidates are, can matter a little bit more.

But are there any names that stand out to you as being missing. Jamie, what does it say to you that I mean, Mike Lawler of New York is going, right? One of the districts that is most likely to flip here because it's reasonably -- it's Democratic swing.

GANGEL: So, he may be able to afford to be able to go and I think that's a question. I think the other thing is no one wants to be the target of Trump's wrath, someone like Susan Collins, she's going to get a hall pass. He understands that she can't show up, but you know, you see these House candidates there. They know to go back to the money. Trump has the money. He has the base. These folks clearly think they need to be there.

HUNT: They absolutely do. All right, coming up next here. CNN uncovers a Republican congressional candidate comparing feminists' weight to whales and nuclear bombs. Brandon Herrera says he was joking, but could his words put a Texas district in play? (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:25:00]

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HUNT: All right, now to new CNN reporting on a Republican congressional candidate with a trail of crass and sexually degrading comments about women. Conservative YouTube creator Brandon Herrera said some things so vulgar that we can't repeat them on television. Now Democrats are hoping that his past remarks could give their candidate an opening in a key red-leaning Texas district.

CNN's Allison Gordon is part of the investigative team that has been digging into Brandon Herrera. So, Allison, what did you find?

ALLISON GORDON, CNN SENIOR INVESTIGATIVE REPORTER: Yeah. Brandon Herrera is a longtime conservative YouTube creator, and he has a lot of fans, more than 4 million followers on his page. So, he had a lot of content for us to dive into, hundreds of videos, hours of his podcast, and social media post. I had to sift through with my colleague Morgan Leeson to really tell this story well.

So, let's take a listen to just some of what we found of him talking about women.

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BRANDON HERRERA, YOUTUBER: As you'll notice, his noggin appears to already have arrived empty and is instead full of mush, much like the average Austin feminist. So, when a blue hair on the news says that a semi-automatic AR-15 is an assault rifle. She is both fat and wrong. But what if, out of self-defense, you had to take down something a lot bigger, like an elephant or a killer whale or an angry blue-haired Austin feminist? These things weigh in at about 6,500 pounds a piece, or approximately four times as much as the average Austin feminist.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GORDON: Yeah. So, that's just a small portion of what we dug through, and I also found examples of Herrera using sexually crass language, slang, other derogatory comments towards women. Especially when he was insulting a female gun safety advocate, Shannon Watts, both her and her children, and the comments he used about her are too vile to repeat

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