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Inside Politics

Trump to Campaign in Five States Over Next Five Days; First Vote Show Signs of Early Enthusiasm Edge for Democrats; New Polls: Trump Approval Underwater in Battleground States; Becerra to Hilton: You Only Want Immigrants "Who Look Like You"; Becerra Targets Trump, Hilton Targets Sacramento Dems. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 01, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: One month to go, and President Trump is campaigning deep in red country, what his travel plans tell us about a midterm map spreading into unexpected places. I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and "Inside Politics".

Just 33 days until the election, and we are tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power in Washington and across the country. Today, we're getting our first look at early voting with our newly launched CNN Tracker. Nearly 800,000 ballots have already been cast around the country, and there are clear signs of Democratic enthusiasm and an advantage for the Democrats.

In several states with key races registered Democrats make up a larger share of ballot requests than at this point in 2024. Now we don't know how those voters will cast their ballots, but it could be a sign of good news for Democrats. And the State of Virginia may provide the most insight into what direction voters are headed. CNN's Tom Forman is live at a polling place in Fairfax County, Virginia, a very blue DC suburb. Early voting is underway there. Tom, what does the early voting tell us so far where you are?

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, inside this building, it tells you there's a lot of energy because there is a lot of voting activity going on right now. People humming around and pretty excited about being involved. But go up and down the East Coast, you can see more of the same.

Go to North Carolina. Look at some of the early voting that we know of there. The independent turnout from the presidential race a couple years ago to now, yes, very different kinds of races, but the independent vote is about the same. But look at that. You can see in this graphic that the Republican turnout is cooled down at this point early on, and the Democrats are heating up.

If you move up north of here to Pennsylvania, you see the same phenomenon there. It's just broken down by the Republicans and the Democrats. But again, you see enthusiasm, the energy on the Democratic side rising, and not so much on the Republican side across the country. This is also part of the kind of, as you know, the sort of landslide movement that can happen, where people get encouraged by what they see, but the other party can also push back.

You're right to note, Dana. Above all else, though, that this is very, very early in this process. What we're seeing right now may be an indicator, and certainly seems to echo the polls we've seen all summer. But it doesn't mean that's how it's going to play out because we still have just over a month till the end of voting.

BASH: Tom, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Looks beautiful there in Fairfax. I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters. I'm going to start with Ron Brownstein. And Ron, I want to point out that the -- I would probably venture to say your good friend and somebody you've covered and used for analysis for a very long time, as I have, Larry Sabato, who is an expert on all things, but particularly Virginia, where he lives.

Already based on the early voting we were just hearing about, has made some changes to his predictions on three key House races in Virginia. Moved Virginia one from lean GOP to toss up, that is now in yellow. Virginia two, which is a rematch between the now incumbent Congresswoman Jennifer Kiggans and Elaine Luria, the Democrat, moved it from toss up to lean Democrat, and then Virginia five moved that from likely GOP to lean Republican. What are your thoughts, Ron?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, in "The Washington Post" this morning is out with polls showing the Democrats leading in Virginia one and competitive in Virginia five. Look, Republicans are caught in sort of a conundrum here.

You know, if you look at the total number of votes cast in the primaries this year, the Democratic share of that vote was larger than it was in 2018. If you look at the Democratic, if you look at the Democratic overperformance of special elections in 25, 26, it was larger than it was in 2017, 2018.

And this early voting, you know, data, although very early, kind of points in the same direction. And what that says is that on the one hand, Republicans have an enthusiasm problem about turning out their core voters, and so it is not illogical for candidates to say, well, maybe President Trump can help me with that, because one thing, he's always been able to do is turn out infrequent and irregular voters, you know, blue collar in particular.

The other side of the equation is if you look at that polling today in Virginia. Trump's approval rating is under 50, well under 50 percent in both Virginia one and Virginia five districts that he carried.

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His approval rating in the AARP polling out today in Maine is about nine points lower than his vote. So as a Republican candidate, you may want President Trump to help gin up your turnout, but you have the risk that kind of you know highlighting your associating -- association with him will drive away independent and swing voters where he is deeply under. I mean, he is under water in a 56 percent Trump district in Virginia.

There are a lot of Republicans looking at that number today, and I think sweating.

BASH: And Zolan, I want to come to you next. You cover the White House. You have done a lot of reporting on the Trump political strategy, and Ron is, of course, absolutely right. There are very much two sides to the Trump campaigning out there, coin, but it is noteworthy that where he is going over the next few days is red country.

So there, the strategy is going to places where you need to turn out the true red Trump voters and try to get them enthused and maybe have less of a worry about those anti-Trump voters that you're also kicking up in the process. I'm going to show you and our viewers a map.

Today the president is going to Denton, Texas, again what is now a battleground state, but has historically certainly not been. He's also going to Durant, Oklahoma. Oklahoma not exactly purple territory. Friday, Mobile, Alabama, same, even more so, I would say. And then on Saturday, excuse me, Friday in Mobile, Alabama. Saturday, Vandalia, Ohio, and then Monday he's going to Nebraska, Zolan.

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, THE NEW YORK TIMES: Yeah, for the most part, these are their comfort zones, right, for the president and for the White House at this point. As you said, Texas may be a little bit different now, but you're right. This speaks to a political calculation for the president and his political sort of infrastructure here.

That they can double down on the MAGA voters who tend to come out during a presidential election and get them to come out for this midterm cycle, and that that will hopefully, if you are the president in his political operation, that that will hopefully outweigh not just the anti-Trump voter and the anti-Trump sentiment, but also the independent voters and the voters that might be in between who are so frustrated with rising consumer prices and the fallout of the war in Iran.

Those voters who not just are anti-Trump, but might have been Republican and voted for Trump, but have felt disillusioned by the break between his campaign promises, lowering prices, not starting these sorts of longer wars, and the reality that we have now of being in this political quagmire of the war in Iran and having these rising prices as well. Whether that strategy will work, we don't know.

But we do know that rather than distance themselves from an incumbent, even given the historical trend of the incumbent's party tends to face challenges, they are going to lean into Trump and Trumpism. I do think it's interesting that that comes at a time where we're seeing more Republicans start to break, criticize the White House than we've seen in these past two years of Trump's return to the White House.

BASH: Yeah, let's listen to what the president himself said about his political strategy yesterday.

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DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: That's why I'm doing it myself. That's why I'm doing it myself, Rachel. Can you believe it? I'm going out because nobody's selling it. I'm doing. We're doing an extremely poor job of promotion, and an extremely great job of running the country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Eliza Collins with "The Wall Street Journal". That is unclear if he's correct about it's really a promotion and comms issue, not a policy issue, but certainly the Republicans who are looking at the state of this country, particularly the economy, are not happy. These are the president's fellow Republicans.

This is a brand-new AP poll out today. Approval among Republicans on the economy, 57 percent which is big, but it also means that there are you know 40 plus percent that are not happy, which makes Zolan's point about how people are moving away, cost of living, 38 percent.

And then if you look at some of these states that are going to determine the balance of power, the president's job approval, according to a Marist Poll in Texas, 43 percent Ohio, 42 percent Iowa, 41 percent Michigan, also 41 percent, Eliza.

ELIZA COLLINS, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: So those are all states Trump won in 2024, and I think that's why we're hearing the president have such a hard time grappling with what he is seeing in the polls.

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The fact that these states are coming online, right? Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, these are ruby red states that are now considered toss-ups, and in fact, Republicans in those states are trying to navigate how to both support the president and, as they were talking about, turn out that base and not alienate the independent voters and some of these even Republicans who have soured on Trump.

I mean, when we're out talking to voters, they're talking about the war in Iran. They're talking about the economy. The economy was a huge reason Trump was able to create this new coalition in 2024, he turned out a massive number of people doing better with every demographic group.

A lot of those people were just rented, though, and so they are now moving away from the president, and he's trying to grapple with how to bring them back. And it's not clear if doing rallies in ruby red places, even some of those that have now become competitive will do it.

BASH: And Ron, we have a new, pretty lengthy interview out with the president in Time Magazine. It's kind of reminiscent, Zolan, of the very lengthy and colorful interview that you and your colleagues did several months ago for "The New York Times", we're going to talk a lot more about it later in the show. But on the topic of affordability, here is what he said. The question

was the feeling that this country is becoming less affordable. Americans shouldn't hold you responsible. His answer, when I took over, I inherited the greatest inflation in history. I inherited the greatest price hikes in history. Remember when they started screaming at me about eggs in my first day because eggs had gone up like five times higher than they were in my administration.

Now I've got them down. I've got much of it down. The only thing I have to get down now is the gas, and almost everything else is coming down rapidly. Ron, how many times in your years covering politics? I probably can't even count here. Do have we seen a frustrated president that yes, they made promises and they don't understand why the voters who put them in are so impatient about answering those promises and keeping them?

BROWNSTEIN: It's the Richard Pryor strategy. Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes, right? I mean, presidents. It is very hard to convince. You can convince people that you know something happening halfway around the world is going better than they think. You cannot argue them out of understanding how much money they have in their pocket at the end of the week?

And you know, for the president to go out and argue that things are better than you know, where everyone is just kind of misconstruing how they're doing, just makes him seem further out of touch. And you know, there's an added dimension to this, Dana, that I think is different than many of those other cases.

You know what I have seen and you have seen in midterms going back decades. Presidents are often victims of proximity. I mean, they are held responsible when the economy isn't going well, or prices are high, or unemployment is high. There's another layer here, which is that voters not only kind of blame Trump for not making it better, they directly attribute a significant part of the problem to policies that he has deliberately pursued.

And Republicans in Congress immediately voted for, particularly the tariffs and the war with its impact on gas prices. Real quick, it is worth noting that when you put up those approval ratings on you know in those states that he all of which he won many of them comfortably in his first term in 2018 and 2020, Susan Collins in Maine in 2020 was the only Republican Senate incumbent or challenger who won in a state where the exit poll showed that more voters disapproved than approved of his job performance.

No guarantee that's going to happen again, but that is the history that these candidates are swimming upstream against no one else except her was able to win in his first term in a state where his approval rating was anything like what you are seeing in those states today.

BASH: Fascinating. Well, like Ron, I am in California, a state that has no shortage of problems, but its candidates for governor keep pointing the blame at the same targets. We have highlights from our debate, one that has national implications. Plus, new reporting on how Democrats are pushing Senator Bernie Sanders to help more this November. Stay with us.

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BASH: Now to the race to lead America's most populous state, the fourth largest economy in the world, and that is California. Last night, my colleague Jake Tapper and I moderated what could be one of the only California gubernatorial debates.

It's Democrat Xavier Becerra versus Republican Steve Hilton on the ballot, and they clashed over a whole lot of things. The cost of living, artificial intelligence, immigration, and vaccines. No matter the topic, they kept coming back to two targets: President Trump and Sacramento Democrats.

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STEVE HILTON, CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE (R): All you ever say is Trump, Trump, Trump, and that's nothing but an insult to every Californian who is desperate for something to change in this state, and all you are offering is more of the same.

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XAVIER BECERRA, CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE (D): Your words, Trump, Trump, Trump, because he is your supporter. You chased his endorsement.

HILTON: That's all you say on every question. Because --

BECERRA: And you just said it too, and your policy statement --

HILTON: -- because you've got nothing to offer. Californians expect more of the same.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Ron Brownstein, I'm going to start with you again because you are a Californian. What was your takeaway from this debate last night?

BROWNSTEIN: You know, my one sentence is that there were a lot of tactical successes for Steve Hilton, but that the debate was a strategic failure. I thought for him. I mean, he is fluent. He is, you know, kind of more quick on his feet than Becerra, more of a dynamic presence, and he carried the debate at points.

But I thought that he failed really on if your goal is to get elected Governor of California, you have to be able to speak to more than the 40 percent of the state that usually votes Republican. And both in his unwillingness to differ with Trump on anything, even when Trump was taking steps that demonstrably hurt the state, like withholding federal disaster relief on after the wildfires and the agenda that he put forward, which was pretty much a conventional Republican agenda.

I thought that he failed in what would be his biggest opportunity, his broadest audience that he's going to have, I thought he failed to offer really much of a reason for anyone who isn't already inclined to vote for a Republican to consider him. So, I thought he left the race in just too unchanged to really make a dent in the 20 plus point lead that Becerra has.

BASH: And Eliza, to Ron's point, there are a number of issues. Despite Steve Hilton trying to make it about the Democrats who have run California for 16 years, to make it about that, there are many issues that Californians care deeply about, in addition to affordability, that fly in the face of the president's policies. Immigration is one of them. Let's listen to their exchange on that.

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HILTON: It's about enforcing the law. I mean, the federal law is immigration law is obviously a federal matter.

BECERRA: Here's the problem I have with your policies. You seem to welcome immigrants who look like you, but deport immigrants who look like me. We need to have a governor who will protect everyone who works hard. I don't need to stand here and listen to you say that you'll enforce Trump's laws, but you won't enforce California state laws.

HILTON: You're not enforcing, and your party isn't enforcing California law as it is now, and what a disgraceful remark that was.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Eliza.

COLLINS: Here we are in a state in a U.S. map where we're talking about Alaska and Iowa and Ohio becoming competitive. These are toss-up Senate races. So, in California, this blue, blue state where you just said you know it's been run by Democrats for a very long time, I think it's just such a hard state for Steve Hilton to win.

And he is trying to navigate both a Republican conventional agenda and sort of distancing himself from Trump, but who has endorsed him? It's just a tricky position to be in. And when the environment is so bad for Republicans, even though people aren't necessarily thrilled with Gavin Newsom with the high cost of living, I mean California does have quite a few problems.

And when you talk to California voters, they are frustrated. But we also just saw last year California voters overwhelmingly approved a gerrymandered map to make things easier for Democrats because the whole argument was it was a fight against Trump. So, this is a state where you know they can go back and forth on policies, and immigration is one certainly where Democratic voters disagree with the president.

But at the end of the day, I mean we're just talking about states that are so much redder, possibly flipping to Democrats. It's really hard to see California being an outlier here.

BASH: Yeah, and that makes complete sense. What Steve Hilton is sort of reaching for and trying to do is make anti-incumbent fever and frustration with everybody stick here since the Democrats are the ones who run it. And Zolan, Hilton also, on that note, tried to really denigrate Becerra as a candidate who was kind of accidental for lots of reasons that we've been reporting on, listen to that exchange.

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HILTON: According to your Democrat colleagues, the ones who worked with you, like Susan Rice, who worked with you side by side when you were in the Biden cabinet, she described you as an idiot. She called you bitch ass. Why did Susan Rice, a respected political leader, call you an idiot?

BECERRA: Since when do I have to respond to politicians? I'm running for Governor of California.

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I'm looking for the vote of California voters, not some politician in Washington DC.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Zolan, and somehow bitch ass sounds so different with a British accent. I don't know.

KANNO-YOUNGS: I was wondering if I was allowed to actually say that on CNN when I was preparing for this sentiment.

BASH: I mean, go for it.

KANNO-YOUNGS: But no, my parents are watching. My mom's watching. But it's interesting. I reported on some of that tension at the time in the Biden White House over this issue of immigration, and it's true there was tension. There was this debate and sort of internal chaos over this issue that Democrats really didn't seem to have a consistent plan on.

And it seems like Hilton is almost trying to move forward with a message as if it's 2024, right? As if he's -- we're still in that climate where Republicans have the issue of immigration as a strength, where they can continue to attack the Biden White House on immigration.

Look, a lot's happened in two years on that issue. For one, the message that he's going on, Republican, we should just enforce our laws. We have seen the Trump Administration's immigration agenda, the drag net of deportations, has extended beyond illegal immigrants, right?

More and more Americans, according to polls, feel that it's been overblown. That they have over that they've gone beyond what they said during the campaign. So, I don't know if this message that Hilton is saying we should enforce our laws, you lack a consistent plan on this issue. I don't know if that's going to work. Maybe in 2024, but after two years of Trump, like the Americans have

seen this operation and it's gone beyond what was said during the campaign. At the same time, Becerra moving with this attack line of almost trying to put Trump on the debate stage, right? It may work in California, a blue state here.

We should watch and see if that works in other races, and as we move on to sort of national trends, because in 2024 we saw it did not satisfy Democratic voters to only talk about Trump and only move with an anti-Trump agenda. They also wanted to see what those candidates stood for.

So again, I understand it in California moving ahead with pinning Hilton to Trump, but we should see how that message moves beyond a state like California, especially as voters have made pretty clear on the Democratic side, they want to see what solution you are offering, not just what you are criticizing.

BASH: All right, everybody, stand by. Up next, Bernie Sanders helped a slew of progressives win their primaries. Now, top Democrats are worried he isn't doing enough to get them over the finish line in November. We have some new CNN reporting next.

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