Return to Transcripts main page

Inside Politics

Final Jobs Report Before Midterms Falls Short Of Expectations; Ashley Hinson Walks A Tightrope On Trump In Critical Senate Rate; Wages Grew 3 Percent In September, Slower Than Inflation; Republicans Shifting Ad Money From North Carolina To Kansas; Senate GOP Super PAC Pauses Future Spending In North Carolina Race; Trump Rallies For Texas Senate Candidate Paxton In Oklahoma. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 02, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: One last economic report card before the midterms, and it's not a grade President Trump wanted.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

32 days until the election, and we are tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and across the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar. First up, the final jobs report before Election Day is complicating Republicans' closing pitch. The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, far fewer than expected, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2 percent. Voters across the country rank the economy as their top issue, but President Trump is dismissing concerns about rising costs.

Here's what he said just yesterday on the Trail, Texas.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: They came up with the word affordability, so from day one they said, well, what about your prices? And then they came up. You know, they always come up with these words, affordability. Everyone thinks that the prices are high because of me, but they're not. We're the ones bringing down the prices.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: New polls from Fox show two Senate seats Republicans used to bank on are deadlocked. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico has 51 percent support among likely voters, while Republican Ken Paxton has 50 -- excuse me, 49 percent. What that means is no clear leader. And in Iowa's Senate race, an open GOP seat, just two points separate Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson, which means that state is also within the margin of error. No clear leader.

Now to Kansas, where Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton is taking on recurring attacks from his opponent, Republican Senator Roger Marshall. In an interview with POLITICO's Dasha Burns, Hamilton leaned into the accusation that he's too woke for Kansas.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ADAM HAMILTON, (D) KANSAS SENATE NOMINEE: The idea of being woke. I don't know what they mean by that, but I do know the idea of being awakened, like not being in slumber, but being awakened to truth, to kindness, to compassion. We're supposed to do that.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Like?

HAMILTON: You know, I'm pretty sure if Jesus were here, you would call him too woke.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: The Cook Political Report labels the race as lean Republican. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator in 94 years. And a big presidential announcement about a Senate battleground may have been a bit -- a bit premature. South Korea claims it never committed to the $54 billion Alaska investment President Trump touted two days ago, standing with the state's vulnerable Republican senator right by his side.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Dan Sullivan, the senator of Alaska, has been a great senator and he's been working on this deal and other deals in Alaska, the pipeline for almost 20 years, and we're now getting it done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: But the south care -- excuse me, South Korean trade minister says putting figures or using definitive language goes far beyond what was agreed. When asked about the apparent discrepancy, a White House spokesman called the announcement historic but never addressed those comments from South Korea.

I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters. Tia, I'm going to start with you because the -- just the picture here and the way that the president is trying to punch through the very bad economic news by doing what he does best, which is to say, this is a comms issue, or he thinks he does best. And we're going to try to shape their narrative with new ideas in places like Alaska and push ahead even though clearly, at least according to South Korea, that ain't baked.

TIA MITCHELL, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, THE ATLANTA JOURNAL- CONSTITUTION: Yeah. I mean, it sounds like there was a little bit of exaggeration or overpromising on this announcement and the reality is more measured. But I think what the president wants is he's trying to deliver some wins for these candidates in these now, you know, hotly contested states. So, we've seen him do it otherwise, other places. I know we're going to talk about that more later.

But I think here in Alaska he was trying to give Senator Sullivan something to say, look what he accomplished, look what we've done. And in the process, kind of overpromised, and quite frankly, maybe was a little bit misleading on what the true nature of this agreement with South Korea was, which now, you know, now you've got to backtrack or the circumstances are a backtrack but now it's also affected relationships with South Korea.

[12:05:00]

BASH: Yeah. And again, this is if you kind of look at the big picture, this is about as you said, the president trying to deliver some wins. This is one of the sort of benefits of having a bully pulpit to be able to use it and also having the strings of the federal government to try to find these deals. And it's not just President Trump who has tried to do this. Try, I guess, is the important part of this.

And I actually want to you mentioned there's another example of this. Just today, President Trump announced a big investment, also in Iowa, $15 billion there, he said, would go to a new steel plant. But like Alaska, there are a lot of questions about whether that too will even open. We have the wonderful Jeff Zeleny on the ground in Des Moines. Jeff, what are you hearing from voters and lawmakers about some confusion about whether this new plant in Iowa, the president promised is actually happening.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Dana, you can think of this in all of these states as the red state rescue plan by Republicans in the final month of this midterm election campaign. And we saw in the Oval Office when the president invited the Iowa governor and much of the Iowa Republican delegation into the Oval Office on Monday to talk about that steel plant to be built, at least to be proposed in far southeast Iowa.

And the Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal is done. He suggested that no tax incentives were needed. Well, that is not the case. The Iowa legislature is meeting right behind me here in the State House here in Des Moines to consider a tax incentive or credit, if you will, of about $1.4 billion over 10 years. That is causing some consternation among Republicans and Democrats alike.

Yes, they like the idea of job creation, but there are deep questions here about the fiscal health of Iowa. There's a budget shortfall, so even some conservative Republicans are wondering if this is a wise idea. At the same time, some Democrats are wondering how can they stop the idea of these jobs to be created. We're talking about some 6,000 temporary construction jobs and we're talking about 1,600 or so permanent jobs for this steel plant.

So, look, this is all going to be worked out. But the legislature is meeting in special session right now, including some members of the state house who are running for the U.S. House, so a lot of interesting overlaps here. But this is far from a done deal, but clearly, an attempt from the president to try and rescue his sagging approval ratings here in Iowa, Dana.

BASH: Yeah. I mean, giving out, trying to give out economic candy to the Republicans in these key races, not necessarily there yet, as we've been talking about. But kind of broadening it out a little bit, you have been on the ground. You're talking to voters, and you have talked to the Republican candidate trying to keep that open seat red, Ashley Hinson. What is her assessment of the state of play for her and the headwinds that she is facing given the economic situation?

ZELENY: Dana, it's been a remarkable balancing act to watch Ashley Hinson, who's a three-term member of Congress from here in Iowa. She's running for that open Senate seat, as you said, being vacated by the retirement of Joni Ernst and she has been very supportive of the president. When she announced her campaign, she said she was running to be the president's top ally in the U.S. Senate.

In recent weeks and months, she has softened that a bit, saying she would be a bipartisan leader. There's no doubt that the weight of the Trump disapproval is hanging over here, but she also faces a difficult balancing act of threading the needle here between trying to keep Trump voters enthused and some independent voters still on her side. So, we asked her yesterday on the campaign trail about the president's assertion that he's still as popular as ever.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: During that meeting in the Oval Office, President Trump said he's more popular than ever before. Do you wonder or worry that he may not be getting the full picture of what some voters are actually thinking about?

REP. ASHLEY HINSON (R-IA): Well, certainly, I'm always willing to tell him what I think about what's happening on the ground --

ZELENY: What did you tell about that?

HINSON: Yeah. Well, we didn't talk about that specifically. We talked about the major investment that he was able to help us get for Iowa, right? And that's what's important to me is always focusing on what's the next thing we can do to help our people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: So, there's no doubt that Hinson is one of those potential majority makers for either side. I mean, Republicans are investing so much here. This week, they added their contribution. The super PACs did 20 million more in support of her campaign. That is a sign that they are not comfortable with where she is, and we should point out all this. President Trump, of course, he won Iowa three times in 2024 by 13 percentage points, Dana.

[12:10:00]

BASH: Yeah. Iowa has been solidly red for the last decade because of President Trump and now it's back to more purple it looks, the way it was when we started covering it. Jeff, thank you so much. Looks like a beautiful day there in Des Moines. Thank you. Reporters back here at the table. Let's just go back to the economic. I know you hate talking about economic data, Phil. So, I'm sorry to put this horrible issue to you.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR & CHIEF DOMESTIC CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, in the next 45 minutes, let me go.

BASH: The jobs report, which is actually not a laughing matter. Only 29,000 new jobs. Unemployment rate of 4.2 percent. This next data point is really the key. You heard the president talking about affordability and he doesn't really understand why that's a big deal. This is why it is. Look at wages versus inflation. Wages, 3.0 percent, so 3 percent. Inflation, 3.6 percent. I'm not, you know, an economist, but I understand that math doesn't math, which is why affordability is such an issue.

MATTINGLY: Such an issue has been an issue, obviously, for a number of years now has become more palpable and pervasive, not just because everybody's polling because we're close to 30 plus days out from the midterms. But because those two numbers inverted a couple of months ago, which was probably the biggest, I think, single issue the Trump administration was facing on a granular household level.

When you look at what the president is referring to, and then when I'm out in the field talking to people about these specific issues in a lot of these states, what you recognize is there's really kind of two economies. There's the economy the markets operating in right now, the market participants are looking at, and then there's the economy that households are dealing with right now, and the midterm map is being drawn by the latter economy, the one that households are dealing with, the one that is dealing with mortgage rates now at 7.28 percent.

That's up almost a quarter of a percentage point in less than two weeks, which is extraordinary. Gas at $4.40 in Iowa, where Jeff is right now. Diesel prices, there was a deal. The European Union's drawing down their own emergency stocks today, which should help prices, but they've doubled over the course of the last couple of months, and that passes through pretty much every element of the U.S. economy.

And so, these are significant issues. They are very, very real. And two things can be true at the same time; the market can be hitting records or nearing records on a day-to-day basis. Corporations can be doing very well, particularly in very specific industries, most notably AI, and households around the country can still be struggling because they're just falling behind in the rates.

BASH: And that's what the White House and Republicans point out. The S&P 500 up 29 percent since inauguration day, but?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR & WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Yeah. But I think it's actually because of these two different economies that there is a dissatisfaction coursing through the American public because they know what their economy is on a daily live basis. They see all of this other economy that is happening, or other people getting rich, where the elites seem to not be so hampered by the real world economy that they are facing.

And so, it is the -- it is, yes, those two things could be true, and because those two things are true, I think you are seeing a real pessimism, dissatisfaction, and quite frankly, a bit of anger from the American people in this economic moment that is going to play out at the ballot box.

BASH: Yeah. I mean this is one of the key reasons why various forms of populism is driving all of the energy. Hold that thought. We're going to take a quick break. Coming up, are Republicans giving up on North Carolina's GOP Senate seat? We've got breaking news on the race to control the U.S. Senate.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: Republicans appeared to be facing a dark reality in the North Carolina Senate race. The main Senate GOP super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, is pausing future spending for Republican Michael Whatley in his race against former North Carolina Democratic Governor Roy Cooper. Now, Republicans have already spent close to $90 million to boost Whatley, but it's not showing up in polls where Cooper is consistently leading. Instead, the Senate Leadership Fund is upping its spending in ruby red, Kansas, where that incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall is trying to fend off a much tougher than expected challenge from megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton.

And my panel is back here. Phil Mattingly, I just want to read a statement that we just got from Michael Whatley's campaign in response to this news about this major, important Republican entity saying, we're going to go elsewhere. Undecided voters who break late decide the election in North Carolina, and the majority of those late breakers typically go Republican. We feel confident we have the resources to highlight career politician Roy Cooper's 40 years of failures and win in November.

MATTINGLY: Not untrue in terms of what has happened in recent years when it comes to federal elections. I would say statewide, Democrats have been quite OK with how things have broken late in governors' races, including the races for Governor Cooper. The one thing I think that's important contextually here is. One, Republicans have been talking about this quietly for the better part of the last couple of months. They have not been impressed by Whatley as a candidate or his ability to kind of catch on within a state that was always going to be hard running against a two-term popular governor and Roy Cooper.

The second is the amount of places that Republicans are dumping huge amounts of cash right now. Texas being obviously the most notable, but you mentioned Kansas, like they are triaging in a lot of places. They are spending in a lot of places. It's not just a triage, it's like literally save when you go down to Texas.

[12:20:00]

And they also see some opportunities on the map as well that they can target Democrats on, and so you're trying to -- there's the shorter hand version with graphics of what I'm saying, and so this is the moment, and we all know this quite well, we've all done plenty of cycles here. Tia is dealing with it with the Georgia races as well right now, where people are making decisions based on what they're seeing in the numbers. Some of these decisions might be related to, hey, can we stabilize or pop these numbers briefly, and then we can pull back out? It'll be dependent on what they see.

MITCHELL: Yeah, I think it's interesting. You know, North Carolina, it shows that candidates matter, and even Republicans have said from the beginning that they weren't sure that Whatley would be the strongest candidate, especially again against a popular governor, right?

And so, in the other race in Kansas, it's kind of similar, where Democrats really feel like they got a great candidate and they feel like he's catching on. They feel like he can talk to voters in the middle, and now he's making what should be like an easy re-election for an incumbent more difficult, and it's causing Republicans to have to invest in so many places they wouldn't normally think of investing, and I just think it shows really why candidates matter.

BASH: Yeah. I mean, you saw at the beginning of the show the way in which Adam Hamilton, the Democratic candidate in Kansas is trying to turn the term work on its head and doing so with his ability to speak like a -- like a pastor and a preacher. We're talking about all of this, and we need to kind of take a moment and remember that there are using that map maybe again there are so many Senate races that are up for grabs where a lot of money is being spent, but we just don't know in so many of these races.

David, you were reminding all of us this morning how it can go. They are very, very tight. Iowa, where Jeff Zeleny is, Michigan, Texas, Ohio. All of these races have no clear leader.

CHALIAN: Yeah. I mean that last one in Ohio is probably outside of margin of error there, but what we're looking at there, but certainly among these Fox News and Marist polls, you are seeing margin of error races. And what that means is, as you said, no clear leader, so don't get obsessed about which candidate is numerically higher.

When races are that close, it doesn't matter which candidate's numerically higher. It really could go either way there. That's what a true toss-up is. And which doesn't mean -- I don't want to undermine, this is a pretty dramatic move for the Republicans to pull out of North Carolina, right? Like this is -- this is a state that Democrats, you know, they need a net gain of four Republican seats to win the majority.

So, when the Republican Party says we're pulling -- or a portion of the Republican Party says we're pulling out of here, and basically, we are seeing that the Democrats are going to flip that seat. They're one-fourth of the way there on that, you know, hill that they're trying to climb to flip four seats.

Now, they still have to hold onto their own in places like New Hampshire and Michigan, real toss-up contests at the moment and it is still in deep -- this is the other part. It's not just that the polls are close, Dana, it's where these races are taking place. So, it is deep red territory. States that Donald Trump won by double digits just two years ago.

Yes, the fact that they're close shows what a different political environment this is and what his standing is. But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, these are places that have a Republican DNA. And so that is why when we are noticing that the president is on a red state tour right now --

BASH: And let's put up the travel --

CHALIAN: Oh.

BASH: No, no, go as you're talking. I want to put up where the president is traveling to back up what you're saying.

CHALIAN: That is why -- yes, his red state tour speaks to hate. Why is the president going to this deep red territory? Well, yes, it speaks to the troubles they are facing in this political environment, but it also just speaks to the reality of the map of the need that if they are to have any success or mitigate some potential losses here, they do need to actually shore up and drive some enthusiasm among their most loyal supporters.

BASH: OK, hold that thought. We have a lot more to talk about on this topic. Coming up, President Trump says that he'd say it to Ken Paxton's face and he did. You're going to want to hear the president's pitch in the Texas Senate race. You know, the one that he upended with his endorsement of the very GOP candidate, he's now chiding.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:25:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: President Trump's October blitz is officially on, just not where you'd expect.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Well, I want to say a very special hello, Durant and hello to Oklahoma. We were in Texas trying to get Ken Paxton elected. We have to do that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Yep, you heard that right. The president is rallying for Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton but doing it from Oklahoma. You heard Paxton's name came up right at the top before the president even brought up. The Republicans actually on the ballot in the state where he was in Oklahoma, and when he did bring up Paxton in Texas, this is how it went.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he could be a pain in the ass sometimes. I'll be honest.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: David Chalian, part of why he's saying that, I believe, is because of some leaked audio from Ken Paxton complaining about the fact that the big midterm convention that occurred in Texas in his home state actually