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Inside Politics
30 Days: Trump Barnstorms Red States As GOP Shifts Strategy; GOP Switches Gears As New Battlegrounds Emerge; Will New Hampshire Decide Control Of The Senate? Will New Hampshire Decide Control of the Senate; Alito Considering Retirement; Will Trump Get Another Pick; Can Schumer Lead a New Crop of Senate Democrats. Aired 8-9a ET
Aired October 04, 2026 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[08:00:28]
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(MUSIC)
MANU RAJU, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Red meat. The president heads to friendly territory.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Go out and vote. Even if you hate Jon Husted.
RAJU: As the GOP plays defense.
ADAM HAMILTON (D), KANSAS SENATE CANDIDATE: That just tells me they're in trouble and they're afraid.
RAJU: But is the map shifting faster than they can keep up?
And spoiler alert.
JOHN SUNUNU (R), NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE CANDIDATE: When you get desperate, you'll say anything.
RAJU: As Democrats get aggressive in red states, could they blow it in a blue one? I hit the trail to find out.
REP. CHRIS PAPPAS (D), NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE CANDIDATE: The majority won't be flipped if we don't hold this seat in New Hampshire.
RAJU: Plus, end of the line.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, I'd give them all an F.
RAJU: Can Senator Chuck Schumer lead Democrats into a new era?
Have you become too toxic to lead your party in the next Congress?
INSIDE POLITICS, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.
(MUSIC)
(END VIDEOTAPE)
RAJU (on camera): Good morning. And welcome to INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY. I'm Manu Raju.
Just 30 days until the midterms, can President Trump defy the odds in a brutal environment to keep his party in power in Congress? At the core of his problems, GOP support for the president is slipping. Independents are fleeing in approval of his handling of the economy is at record lows. So far, early signs of an energized electorate with more than a million voters casting early ballots nationwide, according to CNN calculations.
So can anything stave off a big Democratic win? And will Trump's presence on the trail, largely in red states so far, hurt or help the GOP?
Just last night, barnstorming in Ohio, a state he won by 11 points. But where the GOP incumbent Senator Jon Husted, is at serious risk of losing, he attacked Democrats as he tried to turn out the vote.
(BERGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: There are a bunch of dumb son of a bitches.
They voted in favor of the worst inflation and the highest energy costs in American history. And now the communists want to do even worse.
Go out and vote. Even if you hate Jon Husted, even if you hate Vivek Ramaswamy.
SEN. JON HUSTED (R-OH): Thank you, President Trump, for being here.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: All right, let's break this all down with my excellent group of reporters. "Semafor's" David Weigel, Carrie Dann from "The Cook Political Report", and CNN's Patrick Svitek.
Nice to see you all. Good morning.
It was an interesting night last night in Ohio. And there's a lot to assess in the -- for the weeks ahead. And let's just look a little bit deeper in what happened in Ohio. Of course, Ohio is a state in which we look at the map here in which President Trump won by double digits there 12, 11 points back in 2024.
He was in a blue part of the state last night, actually, a part of let's go back to Ohio, a part of the state in which Kamala Harris actually won narrowly back in 2024. So what does President Trump's approval ratings look like in the state of Ohio right now? Really not the best when you compare it to back in 2018.
Remember, that was the midterm of president Trump's first term in which they lost the house. His disapproval rating back then was at 49 percent. That's that middle column there on your screen right there. Right now, 56 percent disapproval rating for President Trump in September 2026. David Weigel is we saw Jon Husted there at the end of that clip, embracing Trump, is bear hugging Trump the way for Jon Husted to win reelection here?
DAVID WEIGEL, SEMAFOR NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER: He -- I don't think he has another choice. If you cover Republicans, there's nobody who's able to break from him in a significant way, skip a rally and stay out of his blast zone. Except for, I guess, Susan Collins, all of them are dealing with something that has not been there. Jon Husted has been winning as Republicans become dominant Ohio.
This is the first election Trump has had to run in where people credit him with the economy, managing the economy, and don't think it's gone well. 2018 for all the things breaking against Republicans, voters went to the polls saying the economy is good, but I'm concerned with this and that, and the other.
2024, people credited Trump with a very good economy that they remembered. They raised the give him a mulligan for COVID, let's say, it was the popular position. And you can tell when you're around the country looking at how Republicans are messaging that no one has -- no one has had to do this.
[08:05:01]
And the entire existence of Donald Trump as the dominant figure in American public life, no one has had to explain the economy, an economy that people do not think is good, and the conflict. Maybe this is where -- this is not separating himself and could.
Some Republicans locally are saying, we know things are tough and we're trying to make them better. That's not the Trump message. The Trump message is that we fixed it already.
RAJU: Yeah.
WEIGEL: That we inherited an apocalypse from Joe Biden and it's been fixed. That's not how voters feel. And that's the first time he's ever been telling voters you're wrong about the economy. It's better than you think.
RAJU: Yeah. And it's telling people how they view rather than how they actually feel. That's really just been Trump saying everything is great, but people don't actually feel that way. That's borne out by all the polling in there.
And then also there's this issue of data centers in Ohio. That's been such a huge issue around the country, but particularly in Ohio. Jon Husted has been hit by Sherrod Brown, the Democrat trying to win back that seat. He's, of course, the former senator there attacking Husted constantly over data centers. The Senate Republicans tried to protect Houston on this issue by holding a vote to effectively try to go after data centers for raising utility rates. Democrats blocked that bill. And so, they thought they were in a good side of this issue. Republicans did, heading into this final stretch. And then Trump last night at that rally said this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Data centers benefit local communities. We want them. Look, there's so much money to be made for Ohio. You can't just turn them off. They'll go to China.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: Perhaps not the message Jon Husted wanted to hear.
CARRIE DANN, MANAGING EDITOR, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: You know, and the senate campaign arm for Republicans put out a very alarming memo within the last month and a half saying, if Husted loses this race, it's going to be because of his previous embrace of data centers. And Sherrod Brown's, I think, very effective ad campaign to remind Ohioans just how bullish he was on this very issue.
So I can't imagine him maybe cringing a little bit when the president said that the president has also very, you know, very recently said that people who don't welcome these data centers into their communities will end up, quote, "backwards and poor". That's not exactly the message, I think, for voters in Ohio who are very used to seeing manufacturing jobs, leaving, seeing things that are happening to their economy, that they attribute to overseas actors, that they attribute to tech billionaires taking jobs that were previously in their community and then going elsewhere.
And Donald Trump's message has not been particularly sympathetic there. I do think Donald Trump is aware of the fact that maybe his politics on this particular issue don't necessarily match the rest of the voters, but it didn't stop him from talking about it last night in front of a candidate who desperately needs to distance himself from the data center.
RAJU: Right. And so much of the story right now in the midterms and why Trump is struggling is, yes, Democratic support, Democratic opposition against him is all -- in an all time high. Democrats are energized. Independents certainly are fleeing.
But Republican support is really slipping for Trump. And it's really you look at these New York Times/Siena polls that came out just yesterday. These are all states that Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, according to this polling.
Mary Peltola, the Democrat in Alaska, is up by seven points. She's outside the margin of error.
And there's a very -- hotly contested race in Kansas. We'll talk about in the next segment.
Ohio, we just talked about there, Sherrod Brown narrowly ahead, but within the margin of error there. And in Texas, Ken Paxton losing by six points.
But that is the real issue here. Overall, it's the Republican support that is slipping from Trump.
PATRICK SVITEK, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: And I think the concern here for Republicans in some of these races is that these Republicans who aren't currently supporting the Republican candidate, they're not necessarily all going over to the Democratic candidate. You look at polls in Texas, for example, Ken Paxton tends to be in the low 80s, mid 80s with Republicans. They're not all going to James Talarico. Some of them are, but some of them are undecided or saying they won't vote.
And so this is where Trump comes in for the Republican Party. And they believe that he can at least rev up some of those voters, get them back into the Republican column, and make it so that they at least don't, you know, skip a race or stay home and not vote at all.
RAJU: And in the meantime, while all this was happening, I did not have this on my bingo card yesterday morning when I woke up that he would be posting the phone number of a Republican senator on his Truth Social page to roughly 13 millions of his followers. A senator who's aligned with President Trump and pretty much every issue, Senator Tom Cotton, Cotton himself on the ballot this November as well, all over the issue of Daylight Savings Time.
Trump wants to make it permanent Daylight Savings Time. Tom Cotton has opposed it, blocking it in the Senate because of his concerns about it being too dark in the morning hours, particularly for children, and that Trump posted photo. We blurred it out there on your screen. But Trump, to his 13 million followers, did not.
Perhaps not as the final election closing stretch message you would expect from the president, or maybe you would given this president.
WEIGEL: I would say you might expect this from the president. But there used to be a heuristic for this among Republican voters or the independents who vote for Trump, which is a bumper sticker. I'd take some mean tweets and $2 gas right now. And there is this idea that in the first term, whatever he did that was distracting to the press or to us or to his voters in the front row Joes.
[08:10:05]
But look at the economic numbers. Look at how you were feeling. Look at the money you were able to bring home. Look at how much it cost to buy a house without that, without this stuff just splashes into the news cycle. And it doesn't seem puckish for voters. They -- this seems like a president who's distracted.
And this is something a lot of Democrats are using around the country that the message that if you listen to J.D. Vance on the trail, he's pretty focused on economic needs. Listen to Trump. It does seem like he gets into digressions about things that are interesting to him, that are not. The fact that your mortgage rate is up to 7.2 percent.
RAJU: Right.
WEIGEL: Yeah.
RAJU: And for the record, I did try to call that phone number yesterday and it went straight to voicemail, and voicemail was full.
All right. Coming up next, what's the matter with Kansas? Well, Republicans are finding out and they have a brand new attack ad to try to save that seat. We'll have that next.
Plus later, a comeback bid by a Republican in a battleground state who's trying to keep his distance from Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: You also wrote an op-ed in 2024 with the headline that said Trump is a loser. Do you stand by what was said in that piece, really criticizing him?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:15:33]
RAJU: The decision by the leading Senate GOP super PAC to pull money out of North Carolina and into deep red Kansas tells you a lot about how Republicans are seeing this midterm environment. So how are they spending that money in Kansas, where the GOP incumbent, Roger Marshall, is struggling to fend off his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton? Well, we have a look at the brand new ad from the Senate leadership fund.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AD NARRATOR: Adam Hamilton isn't a moderate. He's a two faced extremist. Hamilton backs amnesty for illegals just like Kamala and Hillary. Adam Hamilton marched in the streets with BLM radicals.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: All right, my panel of insiders is back.
Carrie, what do you think of that message? Very traditional Republican message, trying to tie him to the progressives in his party. Kamala Harris and all the things they're trying to make him look out of step with people in Kansas.
DANN: I think the reason that Adam Hamilton has put this into a category, this race, we now rate it as lean Republican. That is not a place that Republicans would have --
RAJU: Used to be safe Republican.
DANN: Yes. That's not a place that Republicans thought that they were going to have to spend money, particularly pulling money out of a -- what they thought was a very competitive state to put in Kansas. But Adam Hamilton has been a good communicator on trying to distance himself from the Democratic Party.
He has sort of set the ground early on in his campaign talking about how I'm a megachurch pastor. He does not have the profile of sort of this woke liberal. But he also can talk very fluently about faith, which is something that Democrats -- I mean, Democratic candidates love.
Now, Democratic consultants now love candidates who can talk about faith like a normal person in a state like Kansas, which, by the way, does have some DNA of electing Democrats statewide, not at the senate level for 100 years, but at the gubernatorial level. There are Democrats in the state, and there are there are voters who are receptive to the message of somebody who's like, maybe I have a D next to my name, but I'm not really a Democrat like that.
That's what Republicans are spending money trying to define Adam Hamilton as. The question is, is it too late?
RAJU: And you look at the polls here about the New York Times/CNN poll that came out just yesterday in Kansas, and why is it so competitive in addition to the candidate quality issue? It is about the issues themselves.
Gas prices, whether that President Trump has strong disapproval among likely voters, 56 percent have a strong disapproval of Trump's handling of gas prices. Cost of living a majority of voters, war in Iran, a majority of voters tariffs nearly, nearly a majority, but far more than disapproval, rating way higher than Republicans would like at this moment.
So it shows you it's the economic conditions that are giving Democrats a real chance in Kansas.
SVITEK: Absolutely. And Kansas, a major farm state. And we haven't seen Roger Marshall split with the president on the war as sharply as some other Senate candidates. But we did see him send a letter to the Trump administration. I think it was a couple of weeks ago, asking to see if there's anything they can do to provide temporary relief for high diesel prices, which are probably disproportionately impacting a state like his.
And so, you're seeing him take actions that are, I think, responding to the political reality on the ground in a state like Kansas.
RAJU: And let's look at the money. We talked about the money going into Kansas. It's been a little bit so far that has gone in there. But just when you look at the battleground, the story of the last few weeks has been the amount of GOP money flooding into these states after a very favorable Supreme Court ruling. And Republicans hope that that can turn the tide in these margin of error races.
And you look at these just the amount that they're still outspending Democrats pretty much almost everywhere, Ohio, in Ohio. They're on your screen there, 80 million bucks, 85 million bucks going into that race.
Texas, just so much money going into Texas. This future ad reservations that will from now until the end until Election Day.
They're pretty much all down the map, David Weigel. Michigan, you look at almost double the amount that Republicans are spending versus Democrats. The question for Democrats is, can they sustain this barrage that is coming against them because they're going to be outspent until Election Day?
WEIGEL: Yes. And they knew that was coming. And they knew that there are candidates who are very attractive to online donors, small donors, more in the Bernie wing than people like Hamilton's raised money, but he's not raising it hand over fist like a like a progressive candidate would be, who excites the base quite the same level.
They are adjusting to that. And in some cases, they are trying to finesse that and say, why is all this money being spent against me? You saw Troy Jackson do a version of this in Maine. All these ads you're seeing are because the one percenters want to influence the race.
That's kind of the only comeback they have. It's just to find some way to make that big money toxic. The -- it might work because you notice even in Republican messages, my favorite ad of the cycle is the one that goes after somebody for accepting dark money, usually an ad funded by one -- by one very wealthy person using a pass through another. This is a case in Wisconsin where Richard Uihlein is basically funding the Republican campaign for governor. The only Democratic comeback is, why is this billionaire so interested in funding us?
And look, last year in the Supreme Court race that worked, making Elon the face of that. But that's all you got. You can't get them to stop spending. You just have to make them toxic.
RAJU: Right. And speaking of that, there's a ton of money, as we mentioned, into Texas senate GOP PAC, the Texas PAC, how much they've spent over the last 17 days, $131.5 million over 17 days. That is absolutely insane. And then you look at what some of these monies are spent on money, on some how they spent their money. There was this very interesting ad that came out just yesterday.
This is the estranged wife of Ken Paxton, Angela Paxton, who's actually accused him of infidelity, cutting this ad just yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STATE SEN. ANGELA PAXTON, KEN PAXTON'S WIFE: I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton. People have asked my thoughts about this election and turns out I have some. Let's talk about the elephant in the room. In a general election, it's not as much about the individual players on the team. It's about getting the whole team across the finish line. I'm voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd.
(END VIDEO CLIP) RAJU: Man of Texas, what do you think about that?
SVITEK: Striking ad to see? It's kind of a political break glass moment in that race, given how Angela Paxton has been very under the radar in this race.
Obviously, as you pointed out, in the process of divorcing Ken Paxton, has accused him of infidelity. And so to see her appear for a Republican group supporting Ken Paxton in this race on TV, I assume there's some serious money behind it, given how much money this particular group has put into Texas is very, very striking and probably shows just how competitive this race has gotten and also how concerned the Republicans are about Republican women in this race.
I know that Angela Paxton has previously given a speech to Republican women with a very similar message. They really want to get them on board at the end of this race.
RAJU: And you've seen Paxton. He's had ads with his kids and trying to soften his image. During the primary campaign, John Cornyn was going after all these alleged infidelities as well. That was actually a centerpiece of his closing message in that primary.
DANN: That's right. It's always kind of a tell this late in a race, if a candidate is appearing with their children or their spouse, that normally means they're looking at very strong negatives and they're trying to burnish their image. This is like that on steroids. This is I'm getting my estranged wife to cut an ad for me.
I will note that in that ad, she never mentions the name Ken Paxton. You are supposed to be a voter who is aware of all of the dynamics here, knows who she is, and knows why she's cutting this ad to begin with. You know, you wonder if there's a little bit of a Streisand effect with the lower information voters like, wait, what's going on here?
RAJU: Right, right. Very quickly. Do you think it'll work?
WEIGEL: No, it does remind me of 2016. But again, minus all those great dynamics moving in Republicans direction without that, just saying, vote for the team work. I think it's less effective.
RAJU: All right. Okay. We're going to have to digest this a little bit more during the break. And then after the break, why Democrats are sounding the alarm in a state Trump lost three times. I hit the trail in the granite state in a race now considered a toss up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:27:23]
RAJU: Is John Sununu, a Republican who can flip the script this midterm cycle and head off a blue wave?
Well, the former GOP senator is mounting a comeback bid in New Hampshire, distancing himself from president Trump while trying to flip a Democratic seat. His Democratic challenger, Chris Pappas, is sounding the alarm.
I hit the trail with both of them this past week in the neck and neck race.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RAJU: This is the nightmare scenario for Democrats. They have a great night on November 3rd. But something goes wrong. And that's here in New Hampshire. And that's because of John Sununu, the former Republican senator, someone who is trying to win his seat back after losing in 2008, now going up against the congressman of eight years, Democrat Chris Pappas.
Are you worried? Sununu name obviously goes a long way here in this state.
DONNA CATALANO, NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTER: Oh, yes, absolutely. There's a lot of Sununus. But we're done with Sununus.
RAJU: Sununu is trying to battle all of the headwinds that Republicans are facing across the map, particularly here in the Northeast, a state, a blue state, a place that Donald Trump has lost three times.
But Sununu has a different brand. He is someone who comes from a political dynasty of sorts in New Hampshire. His father was a governor. His brother was a governor. He is a former senator, and that name still carries some weight.
How hard is it to run against that brand?
REP. CHRIS PAPPAS (D), NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE CANDIDATE: Yeah, well, he doesn't put his first name on his signs because he's hoping to stoke the confusion about which Sununu is on the ballot.
RAJU: You think that's a strategy?
PAPPAS: Well, yeah. His brother was governor for eight years, was a popular, pretty moderate governor. On balance, John is a much more conservative guy, was down the line for George W. Bush when he was our senator before.
RAJU: Are you trying to confuse voters?
JOHN SUNUNU (R), NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE CANDIDATE: No, that's the -- look, I'm using the same signs I've ever used. That's actually a very silly question, Manu. I mean --
RAJU: He said it. I didn't say it,
SUNUNU: Well --
RAJU: And they're running ads about it too.
SUNUNU: Look, when you get desperate, you'll say anything. And the fact of the matter is, I'm running ads with my picture, my voice, talking to the people of New Hampshire about how I'm going to tackle affordability.
RAJU (voice-over): Even with several GOP seats in their reach. It's two Democratic seats, causing them deep anxiety as polls show a tight race for the open New Hampshire seat currently held by retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen and GOP groups outspending Democrats here and nearly everywhere,
RAJU: Democrats see an expanding map. Should they -- think twice before trying to throw money into other states and focus on the seat they need to keep.
PAPPAS: I think the majority won't be flipped if we don't hold this seat in New Hampshire. Right now, we're being outspent anywhere from two to three to one on TV and on digital. And that's the situation that most Democratic candidates are facing across the country.
RAJU: On the airwaves in New Hampshire are many GOP attacks like these.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Chris Pappas looked voters in the eye and lied. Pappas dated an Amazon lobbyist, voted on bills that Amazon lobbied on.
RAJU: Should you have done anything differently, voted differently, recused yourself, disclosed your relationship -- anything like that?
PAPPAS: It's been seven years since he had that job, and my votes are always for the people of New Hampshire. So, you know, I disclose everything. I follow all the rules, and I'm going to continue to do that.
And what's really rich is you have $60 million coming into New Hampshire Senate race from Trump, from Elon Musk, that want to maintain control of the U.S. Senate.
RAJU: For Pappas, who once ran his family's iconic Manchester restaurant, his task is to convince independent-minded voters that he's not tarnished by the image of his own party, including in the town of Salem, where Trump won three times.
LAURIE WARNOCK, NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTER: I'd like to tell you that I really am a very strong supporter of the Pappas agenda, but I, I don't think he has always served as well -- as well. So --
RAJU: Why do you say that?
WARNOCK: -- I think that's why it's a toss-up. I think it's very easy to get caught up in the partisan politics and be more interested in representing your team than your state.
RAJU: Is the Democratic brand toxic here in New Hampshire?
PAPPAS: It's not in a good place nationally. But what New Hampshire --
(CROSSTALKING) PAPPAS: -- what New Hampshire voters know is that I'm a different kind of Democrat. You know, they see me as someone who's a small business owner, who's a community member.
RAJU: Not part of the national -- who is separate from the national.
(CROSSTALKING)
PAPPAS: Who's been a pragmatic voice in congress. And I've stood up to my party, as I've mentioned, on issues where they're wrong.
RAJU: Chris Pappas very much trying to make this race about cost of living. Here in the nation's largest pin maker, they're hearing concerns about the impact that tariffs and the Iran war are having on their bottom line.
ADRIA BAGSHAW, NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTER: Frankly, everything that's been promised not only hasn't been delivered, but Trump has done the reverse of what he's promised to do. So I have a feeling there's going to be a pretty big swing towards blue.
RAJU: Now Democrats, they're trying to turn the focus to Sununu's career after he lost his Senate race in 2008, when he worked as a policy advisor for the D.C. firm Akin Gump.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: After voting for special interests, he got kicked out of the Senate --
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And spent the next 15 years cashing in.
RAJU: And I caught up with Sununu here at a county fair in Deerfield, New Hampshire, a Republican stronghold.
Are people concerned here about the revolving door of politics?
JOHN SUNUNU (R), NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE CANDIDATE: Look, I'm an engineer by training. I worked in manufacturing, technology, ran the operations of a manufacturing company in Manchester successfully before I was elected to Congress.
After leaving the Senate, I've gone back to technology. Look, I'm very proud of the work I've done in the private sector. I've never lobbied any member of Congress on any issue for any company. And Chris Pappas knows that's true.
RAJU: Now, even though Sununu backed Nikki Haley in the 2024 presidential primary, he even wrote an op-ed bashing Trump with the headline that said Trump is a loser.
Trump did give Sununu his endorsement this cycle, giving Sununu a big boost in that Republican primary.
You also wrote an op-ed in 2024 with the headline that said Trump is a loser. Do you stand by what was said in that piece, really criticizing him?
SUNUNU: Sure, sure. Look, I didn't support Donald Trump in 2016. I didn't support him in 2024. Yes, I supported Nikki Haley.
So this is New Hampshire, right? You stand up for the candidate that you believe in. And my focus again --
RAJU: But he supported you -- Trump.
SUNUNU: Right. He endorsed me, although frankly, I've never met him.
RAJU: Never met him, never talked to him.
SUNUNU: No, no, no. I think, you know, he knew I was going to win the race. And nobody loves a good batting average better than the president.
And look, if the President pushes policies that I think are bad for New Hampshire, I'll oppose him.
RAJU: Yes.
SUNUNU: If he pushes policies that I think are good for New Hampshire, I'll support them.
RAJU: And now Sununu is careful in how he navigates the Trump factor in this blue-leaning state.
Do you think, though, when it comes to Iran and tariffs, should the president end the Iran war? Should he end his war with Canada on tariffs?
SUNUNU: Look, I said from the very beginning, it was a mistake to go in when we didn't have a plan for keeping the strait open. The focus now needs to be to get the strait moving, get the oil commerce flowing.
[08:34:50]
SUNUNU: I think our allies in the region could be doing even more to support that.
And look, we never should have picked a trade fight with Canada. And again, you know, that's always been my position because it doesn't make sense for the people here in New Hampshire.
RAJU: Would you vote to limit the president's war powers in Iran if you had a chance?
SUNUNU: Look, I would support any effort to get us out of Iran, keep the strait open, and again focus on the source of funding for terrorist proxies in the region.
RAJU: Do you want Trump to campaign with you?
SUNUNU: I've said many times, I don't need anyone to come into New Hampshire to campaign for me.
(END VIDEOTAPE) RAJU: All right. My excellent panel is back.
John Sununu very much, as you heard at the end there, breaking from Trump. Could that be enough of a strategy to win in this blue state?
PATRICK SVITEK, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: You know, it may be, but I think this race has been a very interesting trajectory. Republicans like John Sununu going into this race. He was relatively well-known, relatively well-liked.
You look at that "New York Times"/Siena poll that was just on the screen a little while ago. And these two candidates, Pappas and Sununu, had nearly identical name recognition and nearly identical favorability ratings.
And so to the extent that Sununu has some kind of unique brand here, you're not necessarily seeing it in the polling at the end here. You're seeing this race, I think, become a little more polarized.
Yes, Republicans have been outspending Democrats on the air here. If you look at future ad reservations, though, for the remainder of this race, the gap is closing.
And so this is starting to look more like a traditional, you know, toss-up battleground race. And if --
(CROSSTALKING)
RAJU: Yes, that would be good news for Pappas if that becomes the case. If it becomes more of a traditional race. How do you see this playing out?
CARRIE DANN, MANAGING EDITOR, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORTER: Well, look, Republicans have to play here, right? If they are giving up sort of a close to forfeiting a pickup opportunity in Georgia, pulling money out of North Carolina.
This is a state where Republicans can say, look, New Hampshire voters are used to splitting their ticket. There is a Republican governor who has won one other --
RAJU: Who's on the ticket now.
DANN: Who's on the ticket, who is that race is trending Republican. So they can say, look, look, Republicans and Democrats in this state are used to splitting their ticket. These are independent-minded voters. Live free or die.
You know, I still think the trend is probably going to be what we're seeing nationally.
RAJU: Yes. And David, you've seen you've reported about how in blue states, Democrats have -- seem to be having a harder time than in some red states.
DAVID WEIGEL, SEMAFOR NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER: In blue states where they govern. And that is one thing. Yes, Pappas I going to need a lot of people to vote for Kelly Ayotte and vote for him, which he's done in his House race.
But the more he can make this a referendum on Trump and the issues that you saw in your interview less about the Democratic Party's brand, he's probably -- he's probably being helped by that by every day, by the news out of the Middle East and the news that the Trump administration makes for itself.
RAJU: And that's perhaps one reason why Sununu is making very clear he's not in favor of that. And trying to break from Trump on those very key issues.
All right. Thanks for that.
And still ahead for us, a tantalizing new question on the Supreme Court as it returns to a new term tomorrow. Will there soon be a vacancy that lets Trump nominate his fourth justice? And will that happen this year?
[08:37:47]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
RAJU: As if the stakes for control of the Senate were not already high enough, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito says in rare public remarks that he is weighing retirement.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SAMUEL ALITO, SUPREME COURT ASSOCIATE JUSTICE: Something I think that somebody at my age has to think about every term. But I thought that I could still make a valuable contribution, which is why I became a justice and a judge in the first place. So that was basically it.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So you'll be kind of reconsidering this probably every year, rethinking it.
ALITO: Yes, I think I have to.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: All right. Joining me now is CNN's chief Supreme Court analyst, Joan Biskupic. Joan, it's so great to have you here. You know, the court better than anybody.
Ok. So let's just say the Democrats have a big night on November 3rd. They take back the Senate. There are two months until the end of the year where they're still in charge of the United States Senate, a lame duck session of Congress.
Is it possible Samuel Alito could retire then and they could confirm a new justice?
JOAN BISKUPIC, CNN CHIEF SUPREME COURT ANALYST: Anything is possible. We saw what happened in late 2020, when all of a sudden Ruth Bader
Ginsburg died and Donald Trump appointed Amy Coney Barrett and changed everything.
I don't think he would do that. That would be so patently politically opportunistic.
Now, just what he said in that interview with CBS. He thinks about it. He's been thinking about it as an annual routine. Once he got into his mid-70s, he started thinking about, can I make another year? Can I make another year? And he felt strong enough to do that.
But the specter of Justice Ginsburg hangs over everything. But she was 87.
RAJU: Yes.
BISKUPIC: He's just 76. I don't think he would do it. But there's a lot of pressure on him. A lot of Republicans think, just when I heard your intro when you said a fourth seat for Donald Trump --
RAJU: Yes. That's why.
BISKUPIC: -- I mean, that does give a lot of people the shakes, not the GOP, of course, but a lot of people on the other side, the shakes.
So possible. Unlikely, I would think, because you know what he says? He says he rules. He's hard-right, of course. He's hard-right.
RAJU: Yes.
BISKUPIC: He's very much in sync with Donald Trump. But he says that's because of the law as he sees it, not because of politics. And if he were to leave, it would be all about politics.
RAJU: It's such a such a good point.
Ok, let's talk about the new term because it starts tomorrow. Two questions for you. One, do we expect any last-ditch efforts that -- to try to change the midterm elections that we could see before November? And also, what are you expecting in this new term?
BISKUPIC: Oh, we definitely could see some changes if there's a fight, you know, like, let's just think of all the things that could happen.
Intimidation at the polls, failure to certify, problems with the counting, problems with the seating, everything.
[08:44:50]
BISKUPIC: There are so many choke points that could happen. We don't see anything yet, but Democrats definitely are worried about what might be on the horizon. So yes, things could come -- could come back to the court.
But in terms of cases that they already have, starting tomorrow, we have a very big climate change issue where Boulder is suing several energy companies for the harms, the health effects and the public safety effects of burning fossil fuels.
And the companies say, no, this is not your right to do it. This year, these lawsuits are preempted by federal law, by the Clean Air Act. And the Trump administration has actually joined in saying, no, you cannot -- you cannot do this.
So the justices are going to decide whether states have that kind of authority or not.
RAJU: And so you have these cases --
BISKUPIC: Yes.
RAJU: Meantime, you have Trump the way he's been going after these justices. Just last week, the "Time Magazine", Joan, he says -- he was asked by the reporter there, do you regret nominating them, referring to the justices that have ruled against him.
He said, yes, yes, what can I do? I put them in. They voted against me too often. I was very -- I gave them the position of a lifetime. They vote against me often.
Of course, everything about Trump is about he expects total judicial loyalty, not judicial independence.
But Joan, does this weigh on the justices at all? Do they -- they hear, they see Trump bashing them. How much does it affect their ultimate decisions?
BISKUPIC: Well, they don't like the criticism. And what they worry about is that it gins up people on the outside that would additionally harass the justices at a time when they're so worried about security.
But what it does for some of them, including I think the chief justice, is it's a little bit of a badge of honor because, you know, that Chief Justice John Roberts and several of his conservative colleagues are often seen as, you know, in the bag for Donald Trump, that they're only ruling for Donald Trump.
They're not. They've given Donald Trump plenty. But when the president criticizes them, they can say, see, he doesn't like us either --
RAJU: Yes.
BISKUPIC: -- you know, so it --
RAJU: It kind of helps them in some ways.
BISKUPIC: Seriously, it does. But I think overall, none of them like the kind of atmosphere that they're in now where they're getting so much criticism.
And what they also fear is, especially from progressives and moderates, is the idea that there are proposals out there for court expansion, for court packing. And they see that as a real threat to their integrity.
RAJU: Yes.
BISKUPIC: So they're trying -- the Chief Justice John Roberts is trying to navigate a course where he is very conservative, and he is ruling for a lot of the president's initiatives, but he doesn't want the court to be seen as linking arms with Donald Trump.
RAJU: Yes. And you've written the -- literally written the book about John Roberts. So I want to ask you about how he views the way the public views him right now and the court specifically.
There's a new Gallup poll that was out about the trust among -- for the judicial branch and the Supreme Court among Americans. Not good. I mean, a great deal -- just 12 percent have a great deal of trust; 34 percent a fair amount. And you see, not very much and none at all. That's a majority of voters right there.
How does the chief justice navigate this? How concerned is he about this?
BISKUPIC: I think he is very aware of the court's reputation and his own legacy. This is a chief who came on as the youngest chief justice in about 200 years.
And the only -- he came on at age 50, the only justice that was younger than him as a chief was the great Chief Justice John Marshall. And I think he has always thought -- he's always been aware of his legacy. His colleagues say he's always been aware of how history is going to view him.
So this really matters to him. But I don't know if he has figured out a way to do much about it.
(CROSSTALKING)
BISKUPIC: And what can he do about it. And also, they're going to keep ruling the way they're ruling.
RAJU: Right? No question about that. And we'll see if that ultimately changes. I suspect it probably won't in terms of the trust among -- from voters to the court.
BISKUPIC: Right.
RAJU: Joan, it's so great to talk to you before this critical term starts tomorrow.
Thanks --
BISKUPIC: First Monday.
RAJU: First Monday.
BISKUPIC: Great day of the year.
RAJU: Absolutely. Absolutely.
All right. Coming up, why are Democratic candidates refusing to say they'll back Chuck Schumer as their party leader? And what Schumer said about his future this week. That's next.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: Have you become too toxic to lead your party in the next Congress?
SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY), SENATE MINORITY LEADER: Our caucus is totally unified.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[08:49:17]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
RAJU: It's not unusual for Senate leaders to lose support. Just ask the late Harry Reid, Senator Mitch McConnell, and now Chuck Schumer.
The Democratic leader, has been under attack from his left flank ever since he cut a deal last year to keep the government open, despite taking a hard line in three subsequent shutdown fights.
And as the 75-year-old New Yorker faces reelection in 2028, there are real doubts he will run to keep his seat. But he has another election to worry about, his own to be Democratic leader in the next Congress.
And with just 29 percent of Democratic-leaning voters holding a favorable view of Schumer, that's according to a (AUDIO GAP) CNN poll, it's perhaps not surprising that Democratic candidates refuse to say if they'll support him for the top job.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: Will you support him to become leader?
SHERROD BROWN (D), OHIO SENATE CANDIDATE: I don't know. I'm not. I'm not doing punditry.
RAJU: Would you vote for him?
ROY COOPER (D), NORTH CAROLINA SENATE CANDIDATE: Well, first I've got to get elected. Second, I've made no commitments to anyone.
RAJU: Does your party leadership in the Senate need to go? Chuck Schumer specifically?
(CROSSTALKING)
[08:54:46]
PAPPAS: I've said I'd wait to see once the dust settles from this election, who all support and who's running. But we need new voices at the table.
RAJU: So Schumer should be replaced?
TROY JACKSON (D), MAINE SENATE CANDIDATE: I'd love to see Chris Van Hollen as leader.
RAJU: You said you're going to vote against Chuck Schumer if he's the next Democrat leader, is that right?
JACKSON: Yes.
RAJU: Why do you want him out? Schumer?
JACKSON: Well, I think mostly just because I think it's time for new ideas.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: This past week, I put that discontent to Senator Schumer himself.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: Have you become too toxic to lead your party in the next Congress?
SCHUMER: Our caucus is totally unified. We're in great shape. Everyone is really very, very pleased with where we are today compared to where we were 20 months ago under our leadership.
And we're fighting hard and we're on the edge of taking back the Senate.
RAJU: Will you definitely run again?
SCHUMER: I am.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: Now, Schumer later told Punchbowl News and Politico that in fact, he is running for leader again, saying, quote, "I am running for reelection for leader, period."
Schumer is widely expected to win that secret ballot vote, which will take place in November after the midterms.
That's it for INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY.
Up next "STATE OF THE UNION WITH JAKE TAPPER AND DANA BASH". Jake's guests include White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, the lawyer for Jane Doe in the Cornell case, Thomas Giuffra and the attorney for Christa Pike in Tennessee, Stephen Ferrell.
Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.
[08:56:11]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
