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CNN Analysis: Dems More Likely To Win Ohio And Alaska Than Maine; Ken Paxton's Estranged Wife And GOP State Sen. Angela Paxton Endorses Texas GOP "Ticket" In New TV Ad; House GOP Lawmaker: "This Is A Five-Alarm Fire"; Tonight: Trump Campaigns For GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts In Nebraska; Democrats Look To Win Texas District Re-Drawn To Help GOP. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 05, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

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MANU RAJU, CNN ANCHOR, INSIDE POLITICS: The Democrats' path to a Senate majority getting wider. We have a brand-new CNN analysis of the races most likely to flip from red to blue.

I'm Manu Raju, in for Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are just 29 days until the election, and we're tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and across the country. So, here's what's on our midterm radar. Today President Trump and Vice President Vance are both campaigning on GOP turf. They're trying to boost incumbent Republican senators in Nebraska and Alaska.

It's the president's fifth red state stop in less than a week, and throughout the swing, he keeps brushing aside concerns about the issue dominating this election. That's the rising cost of living. A new CBS poll finds 70 percent of registered voters think President Trump's policies are driving up food and grocery prices.

Now to Texas, where the latest pitch for Republican Ken Paxton is actually coming from an unlikely messenger of sorts. That's his estranged wife, Texas State Senator Angela Paxton, who's divorcing him amid allegations of adultery. Here's part of an ad from Texas Pack.

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RAJU: Angela Paxton never mentions her husband's name. And the top crypto super PAC is revealing which congressional candidates it will support. According to the A.P, Fairshake is backing 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats. That includes three lawmakers from each party getting a million dollars each. All 32 Fairshake House picks supported legislation that's important to the crypto industry.

But this is pocket change compared to the Ohio Senate race, where Fairshake is spending an enormous amount of money, nearly $30 million to defeat Democrat Sherrod Brown. And creepy, weird, disturbing garbage. That's how one California Republican candidate is describing a sexually suggestive campaign video from Steve Hilton, the GOP candidate for governor. Here's part of the online video that multiple Republicans are denouncing.

(PLAYING VIDEO)

RAJU: Hilton says the ad targets Californians who want change but are wary of voting Republican. And he said the idea it obsess anyone quote, grieves me.

I'm joined now by a terrific group of reporters who have been all over the midterm election cycle and have been through the states and have been following the campaigns. And we're going to start off about this new analysis that Arlette, you have been central in trying to figure out where things stand in the overall race for the majority? Things keep shifting, polls keep coming out, and now we have some new numbers about where things are shifting.

Let's look at where -- how we projected. CNN did in terms of the seats most likely to flip. That was there -- was on your left is September, as you can see on your screen. September on your left, now on your right. There's been some shift. Ohio, the big one here, going from fourth likely to flip to the second likely to flip.

Of course, that's where the incumbent Republican senator Jon Husted is battling to hang on. Trump was campaigning with him on Saturday. Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic senator, trying to win that seat, picking one up for the Democrats. Maine going down to two slots there to the fourth most likely to flip. The incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins battling to hang on against Democrat Troy Jackson in that race.

And now we are moving also Alaska, moving up that list most likely to flip. That's I think another incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan getting the help from J.D. Vance today. Mary Peltola, the Democrat there in the race, winning in some of the -- some key polling that's just out. Michigan, Republicans had hoped to pick up Michigan, but now it is down to number six. Let's see if they ultimately do. These are all I should caution. These are all still very close races. A lot of them are still within the margin of error. We can see this shift more and more as we get closer to election day. Arlette, what's your big takeaway here?

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ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. To your point about things could definitely shift. I think number one, North Carolina, and number 10, Georgia, are the two that are perhaps most firmly on this list. Democrats are feeling quite good about their chances in both states, but that two through nine, we could really see a lot of movement over the next four weeks.

I think in addition to some of the movement that we've seen in Ohio, Alaska, and Texas, we are also putting a new state on this map, and that is Kansas. There is some rising anxiety about Kansas, which is a state that Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2024. But the Democrat Adam Hamilton is really giving the incumbent Senator Roger Marshall a run for his money here. We know that one of the biggest Republican super PACs is shifting $40 million to the state in the final week. The New York Times poll actually had Hamilton and Marshall tied. And so, there is a potential that this is a lot more competitive than people may have predicted at the beginning of the day.

RAJU: Yeah. And to that point -- and here's the New York Times/Siena polls from this weekend. As you can see the middle of the screen there, 45-45, no clear leader in that race and several of those other races no clear leader in Iowa and in Ohio, Alaska. You see that they have -- there're is lot of lead for Mary Peltola, 50 to 43 against Dan Sullivan. How do you see these rankings, Tia? Do you see, this is -- do you agree with this analysis about the shifting nature of this map?

TIA MITCHELL, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, THE ATLANTA JOURNAL- CONSTITUTION: Well, yes, because Arlette's amazing. Agree with whatever she said.

RAJU: Never disagree with Arlette.

MITCHELL: But I will say what I found so interesting, what you're pointing out, is the Michigan -- the Michigan and the other Democrat --

BURGESS EVERETT, CONGRESSIONAL BUREAU CHIEF, SEMAFOR: New Hampshire.

MITCHELL: New Hampshire, that they're both going down -- thank you for the assist. Both going down to be less likely to flip, and that again is good news for Democrats because there were concerns, you know, after the primaries, coming out of the primaries, that maybe Democrats had lack lesser candidates, or that Republicans perhaps had stronger candidates in these races. And again, because the thing is, Democrats don't just have to flip seats, they have to hold on to the ones they already have.

EVERETT: Yeah. And I think, you know, this is why New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen and Michigan Senator Gary Peters probably felt comfortable retiring this cycle, as they were predicting the wind was going to be at their backs, regardless of what kind of candidate they ended up with.

And to your point in Michigan, there were a lot of fears that Abdul El-Sayed was not going to be as strong in the general election as Haley Stevens would be against Mike Rogers, who is, I think, objectively a pretty good recruit for Republicans to get him to run again. But he lost in 2024 narrowly to Elissa Slotkin, and the polls are showing some separation for Abdul El-Sayed now. So, they are definitely feeling better about those seats that they need to hold.

RAJU: And speaking of New Hampshire, we actually have a piece of mine from later in the show. I spent time with Sununu and Chris Pappas. Chris Pappas is very much concerned still about the amount of Republican money coming in, and we're seeing that all across the country just --

EVERETT: He wants us all to know that -- RAJU: He does, absolutely he wants us all to know that. And Republicans are -- we're seeing this is the story of the last few weeks. The amount of money that's coming in, and the question is going to be, is that working? Is the Republican money, particularly a place like Texas, where we have seen? I mean, Republicans -- we're estimating they're spending about $10 million per week since the beginning of September to try to bolster Ken Paxton in this race, and the New York Times/Siena poll from over the weekend has it at 51.45 here that Talarico is winning by six points.

You can see the bottom of that list here was -- that was -- this one that's outside the margin of error. And then you see the Angela Paxton ad coming to the defense of Ken Paxton, his estranged wife of Ken Paxton accused. Remember what she accused him of back in July. She said, today, after 38 years of marriage, I filed for divorce on biblical grounds. Now she's cutting an ad for him.

SAENZ: And it's not just her. His daughter is also featured in one of his campaign ads talking about her father. This is Ken Paxton, the vulnerabilities that he has or surrounded the controversies that he's had over the past few years are really an issue in this campaign, and Republicans in this final stretch are trying everything that they can to get him across the finish line.

I think when you look at all of these races, you know, Democrats feel really good about the mood and the environment. The president's approval rating is low. There's a lot of frustration with the economy and his handling of the war with Iran, but Democrats are still running in very red states and that is a real challenge.

And one thing that Democrats also express some anxiety about is the amount of GOP spending that's on the board. Our colleague David Wright, who worked on this piece with me, looked at all the numbers, and Republicans are set to outspend Democrats in eight of the 10 of these states, and that's a lot.

RAJU: Wow. You know, this question, can they sustain this? This is what Talarico said about the Angela Paxton's ad. He said, asking Texans to close their eyes and vote for a political party instead of the best person for the job is exactly what's wrong with today's politics. Can Talarico sustain this barrage of anti-Talarico and pro Pakistan attacks ads.

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EVERETT: I think you would start to see the numbers move relatively soon if they're going to move. As you said, they've been running 10s of millions of dollars of ads since September now, trying to hit Talarico and help Paxton. And these polls are still showing the race either close or Talarico ahead by a little bit.

MITCHELL: And I just want to quickly, you know, the Angela Paxton, her ad saying, you know, vote for the ticket. When you go back --

RAJU: Does it mention Ken Paxton's name? MITCHELL: It doesn't mention Ken Paxton. When you go back to what she said about him directly, it was critical. This man does not honor God. You know, this man is someone that she, you know, publicly split with, and so it's -- I think voters are saying, well, which one is it?

RAJU: Yeah. That's a good question. We'll see if this ad campaign actually works. All right. A five-alarm fire, that's one Republican's description of the political climate as the president heads to another state he carried by double digits. And later, we'll talk to a Texas Democrat who thinks he can win in a district Republicans. They actually redrew to give themselves the advantage.

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[12:15:00]

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RAJU: Next stop in the red state rescue mission, Grand Island, Nebraska. It's the first stop in a week where President Trump will also visit Texas again and Alabama again. And today, the president will rally for Republican Senator Pete Ricketts, who faces independent candidate Dan Osborn in an unexpectedly tough re-election battle. So how will that pitch go? Perhaps something like the president's speech in Ohio this weekend.

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DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Just pretend that I'm running, because if we do, and if you draw the people, you're going to win. Just get out and vote. If you do that, we're going to win, and we're going to win big, and we're going to shove it up their ass.

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RAJU: CNN's Jeff Zeleny is on the campaign trail in Nebraska. So, Jeff, your new reporting today has one Republican calling this a five- alarm fire.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Manu, that is a Republican member of Congress from one of the states that President Trump is visiting on this red state tour. And when you look at his week-long travel itinerary, that really tells the story of the entire strategy of the White House, going from Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio, Nebraska, back to Texas as well, all deep red states that Trump won by double digits.

But talking to a Republican member of Congress from one of these states, the member says this. This is a five-alarm fire. We always welcome the president, but I don't know if he's aware of the feelings out here. That really sums up the mood one month before the election. You just drive here to the Nebraska State Fairgrounds. You see the diesel price, the gas price, of course, mortgage prices. Farmers are unable to be in the field at harvest season because of a lot of rain, high fertilizer prices. So, there is anxiety. There's no question. And as you can see behind me here, there of course is a lot of love for President Trump. He carried Nebraska by 20 points just two years ago. But the fact that he's coming here to Grand Island, Nebraska, in the third congressional district, it is the deepest red part of Nebraska. He is skipping the two competitive House seats in the state in the first and second districts, literally flying over them in Omaha, in Lincoln as well.

So that sums up where he is going, where Republicans believe they need him in the final month to try and motivate some of those Trump supporters to pay attention to the midterm elections and come out and vote. But as you said, that Senate race here is much closer than many Republicans had expected. Pete Ricketts' running for re-election here again against that independent Dan Osborn. So clearly, Republicans have no room for error.

But when the president comes here tonight, Manu, the questions are, is he going to address some of these controversies? The tariff policy, the beef import policy, is very controversial here in cattle country. Nebraska is one of the top cattle producing states in the country.

If you look at the Senate map throughout the Midwest, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, as well, also the top cattle producing states. There is anger out here for the decision to allow beef imports to come in. So, all of this is really shaping up to be a complicated midterm election fight for the president. It's why he's on defense here in Trump country, Manu.

RAJU: Yeah. The story of this midterm election cycle so far, a lot of Republican voters running away from the president, which is a one big reason why they're having an issue as we head into November. Jeff Zeleny from Grand Island, Nebraska. Thank you so much. And our excellent reporters are back.

So, I mean, Trump -- yeah, economy every cycle, it's the economy, right? But what is really remarkable is just how much voters are blaming Trump's policies for making things worse. Just a CBS News poll. Trump's policies are making grocery prices go up 70 percent, I mean that is stunning how high that is. But then Trump's message on the campaign shows everything is great.

MITCHELL: Yeah. I find it interesting that Trump is not seeming to ingest the message that his victory in 2024 proved, which is voters -- if they don't feel like the economy is doing well. If they don't feel like they're doing well financially, they will vote you out because that's what happened to Joe Biden. Because Donald Trump said, you don't feel better, you don't feel like the economy's doing well. And this guy keeps telling you, look at all the data, and now he's doing the same thing to quite frankly the same effect. But the difference is his name isn't actually on the ballot, but other --

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RAJU: I think he is saying that it, vote like I'm the ballot, but some Democrats are saying fine, vote like I'm in the ballot. But to that point, this was Kevin Hassett, the White House top -- White House economic adviser, just yesterday speaking to Jake Tapper.

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KEVIN HASSETT, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL DIRECTOR: To the fact that there's, you know, possibly partisan pollsters telling us that the people are really, really depressed. It's a classic Democrat move and I just don't buy it. The economy is booming. And what you have to do is you have to look at the whole picture.

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RAJU: I mean, the economy is booming, he says, even as people are suffering because of high prices. That's a challenging message to a challenging thing to reconcile.

SAENZ: Yeah. And I think that what Tia was saying exactly about people just aren't feeling any of the economic bright spots that the administration might be pointing to. This is exactly the same as -- when I covered President Biden in his White House, they were often talking about oh, this very rosy picture of the economy, but people just weren't feeling that in their pocketbooks. What you've heard from the president is that he thinks that the Republican woes right now are due to a messaging problem. That's why he is putting himself so --

RAJU: It's so common, do you hear people say the empowers? Oh, we're just losing because we're not selling. Always blame the comms people, not the actual policies themselves.

SAENZ: But Republican candidates and he, they are all messengers, and he is putting himself front and center right now because he believes that they can drive up that GOP turnout in red leaning states. That will be one way that Republicans could potentially be victorious. But it's a question of whether candidates are going to balance their love for Trump, love for Republicans, with what they're feeling as the economy.

RAJU: He's blaming the mess -- not getting the message out. He's the messenger. He's the chief messenger that's out there. I guess there's someone to blame if things are going wrong here. Burgess, Jim Justice, the Republican senator from West Virginia freshman Republican told you that quote If you're not worried, you're living in a cave. There's no question that there's people out there that are hurting. I mean, so you're hearing just so much. He's not on the ballot this cycle, but he knows how a lot of Republicans are feeling.

EVERETT: Well, and it's a great test case for this. This is like the most conservative state, probably, you know, top three to five Republican state is West Virginia now. And so, he's saying that people in his state are feeling apathetic about voting for Republicans because Trump's not on the ballot, and they don't feel like Republicans have taken their economic concerns seriously.

So, he's not necessarily saying people are fired up for Democrats. He's saying they are not enthusiastic about Republicans. So, if Jim Justice in West Virginia is hearing that, you can only imagine what folks in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa are saying. RAJU: Yeah. It's such a good point. And yeah, we'll see if the president changes his message at all today in Nebraska. All right, coming up. Can Democrats win back Latino voters in Texas? Democrat Johnny Garcia thinks he can win the Texas 35th, a newly reddit majority Latino district near San Antonio. He joins me next.

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[12:25:00]

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RAJU: Texas Republicans thought they could pick up five seats by redrawing the state's House maps. One of them, the Texas 35th congressional district, it includes some suburbs of San Antonio and neighboring rural counties. It's majority Latino and voted for President Trump by 10 points in 2024. But Democrats now believe Johnny Garcia, a deputy in the Bexar County Sheriff's Office can win there anyway. But to do so, he'll have to beat Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz.

Johnny Garcia joins me live now. Mr. Garcia, really appreciate your time this afternoon. President Trump is coming to your district this week. He's there to campaign in part with your opponent. The president has been saying that voters should pretend like he's on the ballot, won't that work in a district Trump won by 10 points?

JOHNNY GARCIA, (D) TEXAS CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: Manu, thanks for having me on. And it isn't going to work. You cannot pretend that these high gas prices don't exist when you go to Bucky's and you fill up your gas tank and you can't walk inside to afford a barbecue sandwich. You can't pretend like the grocery prices at HEB are coming down anytime soon under this administration to include the failure of Senate and House Republicans.

And you can't pretend like this war in Iran doesn't exist when we're now having to foot the bill for Senate and House Republicans that are willing to step up to this administration, and it's why I feel so confident that come November, I am going to win this race because I'm clearly running against Donald Trump wing man who wants to serve him and his administration to include Senate and House Republicans and will just be another rubber stamp for the failures that we're continuing to see here in this district.

RAJU: Mr. Garcia, there's a new NBC and Telemundo poll that does say that there are nearly six and 10 Latino voters nationwide who actually do prefer Democrats take control of Congress. But there's an important point here. Crucially, your party still has a perception problem. Democrats are still under water. 42 percent of Latino voters view Democrats negatively. That's more than the 41 percent who view them positively. So, is it a liability to be a Democrat in your district?

GARCIA: I don't view it as a liability. Look, currently I'm meeting folks here in this district that are telling me the everyday prices of everything has gone through the roof, and it's why we're seeing Latinos come back to our party. Here in South Central Texas, being able to make it to Sunday to afford --

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