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Inside Politics

Tight Race With No Clear Leader In Iowa Senate Race; Democrat Rob Sand Leads Iowa Governor Race By 9 Points; Can Dems Win Florida Gov. Mansion For First Time This Century: Jolly Pushes 2028 Democratic Hopefuls To Campaign In Florida; Judge Briefly Extends CNN's Access To White House Through Tuesday. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 08, 2026 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Red state warning. New CNN polls underscore Republicans at risk on home turf as voters blame President Trump for making life more expensive.

I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at Inside Politics.

There are just 26 days until the election, and we're tracking the races, the candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and all across the country. We start with new CNN polls revealing two Republican Senate seats in two states, President Trump won by double digits. Now within Democrats' reach.

Let's start in Iowa, where there is no clear leader between Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek. And in Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds a six-point lead over Republican incumbent Jon Husted. The poll also shows President Trump's approval rating is under water in both of these Republican strongholds. Just 36 percent of likely voters in Ohio and 41 percent in Iowa approve of his performance.

And perhaps the most telling data point of them all, on the economy, the issue President Trump was elected to fix. Voters in these states feel he's making things worse. Three out of four voters in Ohio and Iowa say Trump policies have increased the cost of living. This was a major topic last night in the first Iowa Senate debate.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOSH TUREK, (D) IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: I'm hearing from Iowa and saying, I'm struggling just to keep food on the table, a roof above my head, pay my electric bill, and pay my gas bill. And again, that is because of Ashley Hinson voting five times in favor of these chaotic tariffs, seven times in favor of this war. Iowans out there, when you're struggling at the pump, that is because of Ashley Hinson.

REP. ASHLEY HINSON (R-IA): I'm proud of my record in voting for providing tax relief to middle-class families. The working families tax cut provided for no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, reduced tax on social security for our seniors, tax certainty for our small businesses. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters here at the table. Gentlemen, hello. Jeff Zeleny, you were in Iowa this week. What did you learn there that informs, you know, your reporting as you're looking at these new polls, and not just Iowa, of course, but Ohio.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: I mean, there's no question about it. This final month of this campaign is playing out in red states, and we are seeing why now. But I mean, that number that you showed, who do you blame for this? The Trump policies are really to blame, and he ran just less than two years ago on bringing costs down. That's why that number is so striking. 76 percent in Ohio, 74 percent in Iowa. Three quarters of all voters are blaming Trump policies for this. That's kind of the baseline for it. But this Senate race is a fascinating one. There's no doubt about it.

The debate last night, I think, was about a draw. They were both introducing themselves. Ashley Hinson is from the eastern part of the state. Josh Turek is from the western part of the state. Aren't that well known necessarily? Three out of 10 islands say that they can still change their mind or make up their minds. Independent voters are the key here. Republicans have an advantage by about 180,000 or so votes, Democrats are right under that, but independent voters are going to make this race. So that's why both sides are still trying to make some things.

But overall, watching the debate last night, Trump was a bit player, barely mentioned in it at all, and that is different from say the main Senate race that we talked about earlier this week. He is at the center of all this. So that is a striking part. They need to get Trump voters, both of them need to get Trump voters.

BASH: He might have been a bit player in the debate, but his policies, as we just talked about are obviously dominating and not in a good way for the Republicans on the ballot, one more example of that. Phil Mattingly, in our new poll among likely voters, the question on the economy, cost of living, economy as a top issue. Ohio 49 percent, Iowa 48 percent, tariffs are a bad thing for the state. Ohio 58 percent, Iowa 55 percent, tariffs are quintessential signature Trump policies.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR & CHIEF DOMESTIC CORRESPONDENT: And the probably two, if not of the most exposed, but certainly in the group of most exposed states in the entire country when it comes to tariffs are Iowa and Ohio. I also just got back from Iowa. I'm not just trying to track Jeff around wherever he goes. He's a former Des Moines Register reporter. In case you didn't know, he's like --

ZELENY: That Ohio boy right here --

BASH: Ohio boy, I know, we have the two --

MATTINGLY: Yeah, and Ohioans, this poll was built from this moment for me. I think what was so striking, all the numbers you just laid out, I think, are essential to understanding the reality, which is two CNN reporters in Iowa around the same time reporting on two different elements of the story. But the fact that there at all, I think, is extraordinarily striking.

[12:05:00]

I think this gets at Jeff's really smart point about the debate last night and the voters and the pool of voters that they're going after at this point. Iowa and Ohio, no two states have turned more sharply away from their kind of purple hue that we all knew it for -- knew them for over the course of the last several cycles. In '08, President Obama won Iowa by nine points. Trump won it by 13 last year. The delegation in Iowa back in 2009, governor Democrat, half the House seats Democrat, senator Democrat --

BASH: Trump has turned both of these states red.

MATTINGLY: Everything is red now, and it's the same for Ohio. It's gone even more sharply towards the Republican side of things. So that causes very real kind of DNA difficulties for a Democrat trying to flip that state. But the reality is, those economic numbers you were just pointing to, every single one of them, and the fact both these states are so exposed to some of the most critical policy choices the president has made, not just tariffs, but also the Iran conflict as well is why these races are very real right now.

BASH: Just staying with you, real quick. I'm going to put up the sort of generic question about whether or not voters want Democrats or Republicans to control the Senate, both in Ohio and Iowa, very different answers. But as an Ohio boy, Phil Mattingly, the fact that now you're seeing they want Democrats in charge by a factor of four.

MATTINGLY: I'm stunned. I'm stunned. My greatest regret of like the last five or six cycles, in a purely apolitical and absolutely selfish fashion is that like my ability to get my company to pay for my trips back to Ohio or my trips to Iowa, which is the greatest state in the world, that's not Ohio. I just assumed they were gone for eternity. And I think what you're seeing in Ohio right now is the Iowa numbers make sense. I think if you're trying to track how things have happened, Ohio is amazing.

BASH: Right. So again, you said the Iowa numbers make sense. It was plus seven Republican, meaning people who were asked the question, who do you want to be in control of the Senate? Republican that was up seven percentage points, which is probably why another topic in the debate last night was whether or not Democrat Josh Turek is too liberal for Iowa. Let's watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROB SAND, (D) IOWA GOV. CANDIDATE: I think that the vast majority of voters understand that there's more than one kind of Democrat and more than one kind of Republican.

ZELENY: What kind are you --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Guys? OK, that was Jeff Zeleny, and we're going to show that in a little bit. But now let's play the sound bite from this debate live television, folks.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HINSON: When he is showing up to vote, it's wrong for Iowa. He's too liberal for this state.

TUREK: That is absolutely, that's fundamentally incorrect. Actually, in the Iowa legislature, I've voted with Republicans to reduce people's taxes. I am the third most bipartisan member of the Iowa legislature. Over 700 times voted with Republicans. Very proud of that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: What does that tell you?

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: That at this point, Hinson, as she faces this pressure from Turek, basically -- as she faces these attacks about her proximity to Donald Trump and her votes as far as foreign policy with the Iran war. She is going to go on the offensive in trying to portray Josh Turek as out of touch, right, which is something that we've seen. It's a 2024 playbook. We've seen it in the previous midterm cycle before that as well. Trying to say that you are, you know, attached to this national party that's not in touch with voters in this state.

The problem is though, voters in this state, in Iowa and Ohio, have made clear that they are frustrated with the policies of the party currently holding the White House, right? That's the Republican holding the White House and the incumbency as well. It is also just interesting, particularly when you talk about Ohio. Just how incumbency has kind of been flipped in the themes of incumbency.

You have Sherrod Brown, who has the name recognition that usually we associate with the person holding the office, even though he's the challenger right now. At the same time, you have Husted attacking Sherrod Brown and almost trying to associate him with incumbency, given the frustration that's across the country right now with the current state of the economy. It's just like a flip dynamic that we usually don't see for a challenger and somebody already holding the White House.

BASH: We got a little preview accidently but, you know, the more Jeff Zeleny that we can see out hunting in Iowa, the better. Let's watch all of it now, what we were going to play. This is Jeff, just back from Iowa, hunting with the Democratic candidate for governor.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SAND: I think that the vast majority of voters understand that there's more than one kind of Democrat and more than one kind of Republican.

ZELENY: What kind are you?

SAND: I'm myself. Look, I'd say at all my town halls. I registered as an independent when I first registered to vote. I don't know why we have to be Democrats or Republicans. I've never heard a compelling reason that we should only have two options on the ballot, and I don't think either party is doing a great job of fixing problems.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[12:10:00]

BASH: I mean, what a moment for -- just that sort of is very telling. That picture, never mind the content of what he's saying, and he's doing very well in the polls.

ZELENY: He's up nine points in our poll, which is similar to other polls that have been taken here. What Rob Sand is trying to do is sort of emerge and a breakout of this Democratic brand that's really been an issue in Ohio, in Iowa, other places, and he's his own brand. That is what he is trying to do here. And you see him going up a tree stand there.

We were hunting in a forest in a Des Moines. Obviously, he's been hunting for a very long time. When he ran for state auditor, that was actually his campaign message, get bucks, I'll save you bucks. In his auditor's office in the state capitol, he has deer head all across the wall. So, this isn't just a campaign sort of slogan at the end, but the point of it is that he is trying to emerge beyond what is very much a troubled Democratic brand. He's trying to run beyond the brand there.

So, we will see if this race actually connects to the Senate race, which of course it's on the same ballot, so that is what Iowa Democrats there and other Democrats have their hopes. Can Rob Sand sort of a lift up Josh Turek, or is it going to be a moment for Iowans to do what they did for a very long time, with Harkin and Grassley, Harkin and Brandstad, Democrat and Republican? Are they going to balance things out? So, a very intriguing series of questions from Iowa for election night.

BASH: Yeah. And I think the point that he made and that you're making now, and that we have to keep underscoring, even though Democrats are ahead of Republicans right now in all of these races, it's not as if Democrats are the most popular party in the world. It's the lesser of two evils --

ZELENY: The bow is the tell, by the way.

BASH: Yeah.

ZELENY: You don't take a report or bow hunting if you don't actually hunt, you can do a gun-related PR stunt, but it's only bow season now. Gun hunting season, rifle hunting season -- by the next week--

MATTINGLY: You can understand?

ZELENY: Nebraska have to watch the peace, Phil.

BASH: We are going to watch that peace. But up next, we're going to talk to the former Republican, trying to be the first Democratic governor of Florida in 30 years. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BASH: It's been nearly 30 years since Florida had a Democratic governor, and the state we once saw as the swing state has been pretty much left behind by Democrats. Now, David Jolly, a Republican turned Democrat is hoping to change that. Jolly is running for governor against a staunch Trump ally, Congressman Byron Donalds. Donald's is far out raising Jolly, amassing around eight times more in his war chest. Still, some Democrats argue this race is much closer than you might expect, including the Democrat on the ballot.

Dave Jolly, who joins me now. Thank you so much for being here. It is a very steep hill that you are trying to climb, 1.5 million more Republicans than Democrats in Florida. The last time Democrats won a Senate seat in Florida, Democrats had half a million more registered voters than Republicans. So, what is your winning Democratic coalition in Florida?

DAVID JOLLY, (D) FLORIDA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: Sure. Importantly, kind of voter registration doesn't really matter this cycle. Look, Mar-a- Lago elected a Democratic state representative. The city of Miami elected a Democratic mayor for the first time in 30 years. It was 19 points throughout Florida. We've seen swings like we're seeing nationally, 15 or 20 points, and so that has made November 3 competitive. The race right now is essentially a toss-up. I would suggest maybe a little nudge our way, but let's just leave it basically in a toss-up right now.

What is the coalition? Look, this is a governor's race. So, I don't litigate the president or the national direction. I talk about housing, healthcare, education, and no data centers. The important thing for Democrats is that amplifies our values that everybody deserves an economy that works that the private sector is going to lead, but everybody needs their piece of it that we should be able to afford housing or rents if you're in an apartment. We should have access to healthcare and good schools, that's it.

But in a moment of change where all voters, independents and Republicans alike feel the anxiety and the grips of a stagnant economy. Look at a president building ballrooms or a Tallahassee kind of one-party corruption. They're saying, hey, you're trying to litigate ideology when I'm just trying to put food on the table and afford my house. And so, while the right is litigating ideology, we're litigating solutions, and those solutions are different in Florida than Iowa than other states, but it's an opportunity Democrats haven't had in a long time.

BASH: So, you just laid out your strategy, your policy agenda there. It's Inside Politics, so I want to get into the nitty gritty a little bit on that, which is, you are pushing national Democratic donors and the DGA, the Democratic Governors Association, to put money into your race to help you close the gap. What have they said and can you win without that money?

JOLLY: Yeah. We can't win without the money, and this is the good news. Look, we're defying gravity here a little bit. Byron Donalds turns out to be one of those candidates. The more he spins, the worse he does. You don't always get that in an opponent, but he's outspent us by $100 million, and the race is essentially tied. And so, this race comes down really probably to two fronts. There's only about 6 percent left undecided. You've got about 10 or 11 percent of undecided black voters, and obviously Byron Donalds presents a historic candidacy while we present a historic agenda for all communities.

[12:20:00]

And then those disaffected Republicans. Some are DeSantis voters, some are former MAGA voters who are saying, I just can't stick with Republicans this cycle. So now you have kind of the Jolly camp with the momentum and the Donalds' camp with the money. The two forces in politics colliding. We can win without the money, but it's a lot easier to win when you do have the money.

I know national donors are looking at a Florida governor's race, saying, why should I care about Florida? The answer is because Florida electing a Democratic governor, resets the road to the White House in '28. If you're a national donor of the national party, '26 in Florida is just as much about '28 and the White House. That's why we need help nationally.

BASH: Speaking of '28, you've had some not so veiled comments pushing 2028 contenders to invest their time and money in Florida. I want to read what you told my colleague Steve Contorno. You said, I had long thought that all these presidential candidates would decide to come help in Florida, if for nothing else, if they became the champion of David Jolly and David Jolly wins, David Jolly is going to remember they helped. I don't mean that in a transactional way. It's just the enlightened self-interest of someone looking to run for president.

I mean, look, politics is transactional. That is transactional, which you know, that's fine. That's the point that you're trying to make. You say that it's surprising to you once you have said that. Have you heard from any 2028ers? Any nibbles?

JOLLY: We have. Yeah. There are some folks that have come in very kindly on our behalf. We've had the opportunity to campaign with Pritzker. I spoke with Governor Moore. Yesterday Rahm Emanuel was on the ground with us. We've had a number of folks call now to say, how can I help? And so, look, it is important for Democrats nationally to win Florida, but we do something else when we win Florida. Sure, the road to the White House gets a little easier.

Dana, we get to reimagine our politics. A state where only 29 percent of registered voters are Democrats, it will mean that we led with the Democratic Party's values, that the economy should work for everyone, government can do a little bit to help, and everyone's rights should be protected, their dignity respected. But we have built a coalition bigger than our party with independents and Republicans that lets us reimagine our politics. I think there are three races that allow us to do that this cycle it's Ossoff, Talarico, and ours. And so, if you are looking at the White House in '28, yes, there's a new coalition available, but there's also a lot of Democratic delegates in the race for the Democratic nomination for the presidency, and so, I expect we'll continue to see more people come in and help.

BASH: One way that you could get attention and get your message out more is by debating your opponent, Congressman Donalds, and he is willing, you are not. Why not? Isn't that a missed opportunity? Never mind. Maybe the right thing to do in a democracy is to stand on the stage and debate your opponent.

JOLLY: Yeah, thank you, Dana. I had accepted several debates. Byron hadn't responded. Then he tried to check us with -- here are the three debates. These are our sets of rules. Look, chalk it up to bad faith, and honestly, a lot of dishonesty. All his ads continue to get fact check faults. I don't support a hurricane tax, a social security tax, oil drilling, or socialism. But fine, chalk all that up to politics. Here's what it came down to.

When I realized the bad faith and dishonesty had gotten so thick, my wife and I have a seven-year-old and five-year-old, and I'm trying to elevate our politics to something better. I say, in the world of Donald Trump, I'm trying to be Ted Lasso. And if you look at all of these debates that are going on right now, I'm not sure they inform the voters or they move our politics to a better place.

If anything, they're measured by who can lay down the greatest insult to stick on the other. And we all race to social media. Our feelings are hardened, and we've done nothing to actually inform voters and improve our politics. If I thought it would, I would do it. I just don't think it does. And so, I'm not going to platform the vitriol in rancor and dishonesty. I've done over 300 town halls. We'll do a lot more.

As I mentioned, only 6 percent of the state is now undecided. We have a very informed electorate. I'll stay on the ground every day with voters. I encourage Byron Donalds to do the same, do the same, but I'm not going to platform the vitriol and division. I think we've got to move our politics to somewhere better and I'm willing to do that.

BASH: Well. I can think of a place where you can have a very substantive debate, and I'm willing to host you on the show on anywhere with Byron Donalds because I hear you about vitriol, but I also think it's important to talk about the issues, especially as you laid out with such an important job as governor of Florida. So, you're welcome to do it here, Congressman. Thank you so much and we --

JOLLY: You've got it.

BASH: Oh, wait, was that a, yes?

JOLLY: No, it's not a yes.

BASH: OK. JOLLY: So, my final answer, I'm not doing debates. But thank you for the invitation.

BASH: OK, thank you so much. And we did invite Congressman Donalds back on the program before Election Day, and we hope to have him soon, maybe with the congressman. Up next, we have some breaking news on a court hearing involving CNN, MS Now, and POLITICO's access to the White House. Don't go anywhere.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:25:00]

BASH: Now to breaking news in the quest for access to the White House by this network and others. A federal judge just heard arguments on a request from CNN, MS Now, and POLITICO to extend his earlier order, allowing outlets to continue reporting from the White House after President Trump's ban.

I want to get straight to CNN's chief media analyst Brian Stelter and CNN's Evan Perez, who was inside the courtroom during the hearing. Evan, I'll start with you. What happened?

EVAN PEREZ, CNN SENIOR JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Dana, the judge briefly extended the temporary restraining order, which prevents the White House from enforcing its ban on reporters from CNN, MS Now and POLITICO.

[12:30:00]